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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) 17 May 2018 Americas/United States Equity Research Travel & Leisure Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (15-May-18, US$) 38.87 INITIATION Target price (US$) 48.00 52-week price range (US$) 47.30 - 34.05 Market cap(US$ m) 3,763 Plenty of Time Left on This Vacation Enterprise value (US$ m) 4,234 Target price is for 12 months. ■ Outperform Rating: We are initiating coverage of Hilton Grand Vacations Research Analysts (HGV) with an Outperform rating and a $48 target price, implying 23% upside Cameron McKnight potential. HGV is a top-tier timeshare company, with a very concentrated model. 212 325 6608 [email protected] ■ Buying into Timeshare: We are positive on the improved industry structure, Ben Combes, CFA return profile, and strong growth prospects. We expect more consolidation 212 538 2383 and limited supply growth. We expect sales to benefit from strong consumer [email protected] confidence and the continued shift of consumer spend to travel and leisure. ■ The Debate: We point to strong growth prospects, lower volatility through the cycle, leading returns and cash conversion, long-term investment in new owners, recent underperformance, and an undemanding valuation. Bears argue HGV already has the best margins and efficiency ratios, additional investment will weigh on cash flow, the company is well liked, and it has already taken significant market share. ■ Growth Drivers: We expect a 19% EBITDA CAGR in 2017-19, versus 13% for the group. HGV is harvesting one of the industry’s largest inventory books and new owner bases – a significant source of future sales. HGV is also investing for 2021+; it has significant white space and opportunity for unit growth and a monopoly Japanese business that drives a unique sourcing channel versus peers. ■ Valuation: HGV currently trades at 8.3x 2019E EBITDA, below peers. Our $48 target price is based on 10x 2019E EBITDA, a slight premium to peers. ■ Key Risks: Sales and default rates are dependent on the U.S. consumer. Consumer financing income depends on favorable securitization markets. Florida, Hawaii, and Las Vegas concentration is a risk. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics 5 0 Year 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 1.66 3.01 3.18 3.51 4 5 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - 4 0 P/E (x) 23.4 12.9 12.2 11.1 3 5 P/E rel. (%) 111.9 74.1 77.4 77.5 3 0 Revenue (US$ m) 1,661.0 1,954.5 2,054.4 2,261.4 Ju l- 1 7 O ct - 1 7 Jan - 1 8 A p r - 1 8 EBITDA (US$ m) 362.0 497.2 515.7 560.4 OCFPS (US$) 3.59 -1.88 1.45 1.87 H GV.N S& P 5 0 0 IN D EX P/OCF (x) 11.7 -20.7 26.8 20.8 On 15-May-2018 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2711.45 EV/EBITDA (current) 11.5 8.4 8.1 7.4 Daily May15, 2017 - May15, 2018, 05/15/17 = US$36.14 Net debt (US$ m) 244 471 191 -130 ROIC (%) 46.13 40.20 31.97 27.56 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017A 0.48 0.43 0.41 0.34 Number of shares (m) 96.82 IC (current, US$ m) 762.00 2018E 0.30 1.19 0.67 0.86 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) 4.7 EV/IC (x) 4.8 2019E 0.75 0.76 0.82 0.85 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 402.6 Dividend (current, US$) - Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) 86.7 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 17 May 2018 Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Price (15 May 2018): US$38.87; Rating: OUTPERFORM; Target Price: 48.00; Analyst: Cameron McKnight Income Statement 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Company Background Revenue (US$ m) 1,661.0 1,954.5 2,054.4 2,261.4 Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. is a timeshare company that markets EBITDA 362 497 516 560 and sells vacation ownership intervals (VOIs), manages resorts in Depr. & amort. (27) (34) (28) (28) leisure and urban destinations, and operates a points-based EBIT (US$) 335 463 488 532 vacation club. Net interest exp (27) (28) (28) (28) PBT (US$) 305 430 452 496 Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Income taxes 15 (111) (117) (130) Profit after tax 320 319 334 367 Other NPAT adjustments 128 (1) (1) (1) Cash Flow 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Cash flow from operations 356 (187) 144 185 CAPEX (35) (50) (48) (48) Free cashflow to the firm 321 (237) 96 137 Cash flow from investments (87) (62) (64) (64) Net share issue(/repurchase) 0 (112) 0 0 Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 Cashflow from financing activities (61) 22 200 200 Changes in Net Cash/Debt 208 (227) 280 321 Balance Sheet (US$) 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Cash & cash equivalents 246 16 296 617 Account receivables 112 117 117 117 Other current assets 51 13 240 501 Total fixed assets 238 245 265 285 Investment securities - - - - Total assets 2,384 2,555 3,320 4,152 Total current liabilities 552 714 714 714 Shareholder equity 518 385 938 1,557 Total liabilities and equity 2,384 2,555 3,320 4,152 Net debt 244 471 191 (130) Per share 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) 53.00 No. of shares (wtd avg) 99 99 99 99 11% higher 2018 and 2019 EBITDA from stronger organic sales CS adj. EPS 1.66 3.01 3.18 3.51 growth and slightly lower default rates if US consumer / travel spend Prev. EPS (US$) accelerates, and/or leads from Hilton and HGV's Japanese business Dividend (US$) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 increase. Assuming no multiple expansion, with 10x EV/EBITDA Free cash flow per share 3.23 (2.39) 0.97 1.38 multiple on 2019E yields $53/sh Earnings 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Sales growth (%) 4.9 17.7 5.1 10.1 EBIT growth (%) (9.2) 38.3 5.3 9.2 Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) 33.00 Net profit growth (%) (12.1) 81.0 5.4 10.3 2% and 15% lower 2018 and 2019 EBITDA from a mild consumer EPS growth (%) (12.3) 81.0 5.6 10.3 recession where sales growth decelerates in 18 and is down in 19; EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 25.4 25.1 24.8 and higher consumer loan defaults. 2019 EBITDA margins drop, EBIT margin (%) 20.2 23.7 23.7 23.5 with some offset from cost cuts. Assume multiple contraction from Pretax margin (%) 18.4 22.0 22.0 21.9 10x to 8.5x, yields $33/sh Net margin (%) 9.9 15.3 15.3 15.4 Share price performance Valuation 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E EV/EBITDA (x) 11.5 8.4 8.1 7.4 P/E (x) 23.4 12.9 12.2 11.1 5 0 Returns 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E 4 5 ROIC (%) 46.1 40.2 32.0 27.6 Gearing 12/17A 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E 4 0 Net debt/equity (%) 47.1 122.4 20.4 (8.3) 3 5 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017A 0.48 0.43 0.41 0.34 3 0 2018E 0.30 1.19 0.67 0.86 Ju l- 1 7 O ct - 1 7 Jan - 1 8 A p r - 1 8 2019E 0.75 0.76 0.82 0.85 H GV.N S& P 5 0 0 IN D EX On 15-May-2018 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2711.45 Daily May15, 2017 - May15, 2018, 05/15/17 = US$36.14 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)2 17 May 2018 Table of contents Key Charts 4 Executive Summary 5 Business Description 7 Investment Highlights 11 1. Strong Growth Outlook.......................................................................................11 2. Strong Track Record ..........................................................................................14 3. Significant FCF Generation and Strong Returns................................................16 4. Specific, Tangible Catalysts ...............................................................................18 Valuation and Target Price 19 Risks to Rating and Target Price 21 Company Financials 22 HOLT and PEER Analysis 24 Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)3 17 May 2018 Key Charts Figure 1: HGV vs Timeshare Industry Sales Figure 2: Comparable Sales Center Efficiency Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. *8 of HGV’s Sales Centers are in Japan, 8 are in the US, VAC had 19 active sales centers in 2016. Figure 3: Industry Leading CFROI® Figure 4: Leading Cash Conversion Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates, CS HOLT® Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 5: Inventory Sources & Economics Figure 6: Key Financials Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)4 17 May 2018 Executive Summary Plenty of Time Left on This Vacation: We are initiating coverage of Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) with an Outperform rating and a $48 target price (23% potential upside).
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