[Math.PR] 14 Feb 2019 Recurrence of Markov Chain Traces
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Clear-Sighted Statistics: Module 7: Basic Concepts of Probability
City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works Open Educational Resources Queensborough Community College 2020 Clear-Sighted Statistics: Module 7: Basic Concepts of Probability Edward Volchok CUNY Queensborough Community College How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/qb_oers/85 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] Clear-Sighted Statistics: An OER Textbook Module 7: Basic Concepts of Probability “It is remarkable that a science [probability] that began by considering games of chance should itself be raised to the ranks of the most important subject of human knowledge.”1 –Pierre-Simon Laplace “The most important questions in life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability.”2 –Pierre-Simon Laplace Two seventeenth century French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat have been considered the founders of probability theory for over 300 years. Between July and October of 1654, Pascal and Fermat exchanged a series of letters about dice games that addressed questions raised by Antoine Gombaud, who was also known as the Chevalier de Méré. Gombaud is often depicted as the gambler in this story.3 With their letters, Pascal and Fermat established the core components of modern probability theory. While only seven of these letters have survived, some of the leading mathematicians of the time were aware of and commented on this correspondence. One was the era’s top scientist, Christiaan Huygens and teacher of the mathematician Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, alluded to these letters in 1657. -
1Principles of Probability
Principles of 1Probability The Principles of Probability Are the Foundations of Entropy Fluids flow, boil, freeze, and evaporate. Solids melt and deform. Oil and wa- ter don’t mix. Metals and semiconductors conduct electricity. Crystals grow. Chemicals react and rearrange, take up heat and give it off. Rubber stretches and retracts. Proteins catalyze biological reactions. What forces drive these processes? This question is addressed by statistical thermodynamics, a set of tools for modeling molecular forces and behavior, and a language for interpret- ing experiments. The challenge in understanding these behaviors is that the properties that can be measured and controlled, such as density, temperature, pressure, heat capacity, molecular radius, or equilibrium constants, do not predict the tenden- cies and equilibria of systems in a simple and direct way. To predict equilibria, we must step into a different world, where we use the language of energy, en- tropy, enthalpy, and free energy. Measuring the density of liquid water just below its boiling temperature does not hint at the surprise that just a few de- grees higher, above the boiling temperature, the density suddenly drops more than a thousandfold. To predict density changes and other measurable prop- erties, you need to know about the driving forces, the entropies and energies. We begin with entropy. Entropy is one of the most fundamental concepts in statistical thermody- namics. It describes the tendency of matter toward disorder. The concepts that 1 we introduce in this chapter, probability, multiplicity, combinatorics, averages, and distribution functions, provide a foundation for describing entropy. What Is Probability? Here are two statements of probability. -
Deepnet Technologies, Makers of a Wide Range of Advantage Gambling Training Products and Software (Blackjack, Poker, Craps)
EXPERT TIPS ON CASINO GAMBLING BY FRANK SCOBLETE DOMINATOR BILL BURTON STICKMAN Golden Touch, Expert Tips on Casino Gambling Copyright © 2007, Golden Touch Craps LLC All rights reserved. Except for brief passages used in legitimate reviews, no parts of this book may be reproduced, translated, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any storage and retrieval system, without the express written permission of the publisher. Page layout and typesetting by www.DeepNetTech.com. The material in this book is intended to inform and educate the reader and in no way represents an inducement to gamble legally or illegally. iii Table of Contents Table of Contents.......................................................................................................... v Foreword........................................................................................................................1 1 - This Ain't Streaking.................................................................................................. 3 2 - Craps is Easy to Learn ............................................................................................ 7 3 - I Hate These Commercials ...................................................................................... 9 4 - TV Educated Poker Players................................................................................... 11 5 - What It Costs You to Play Craps.......................................................................... -
Probability Theory Introductory Concepts
Chapter 5: Probability Theory Introductory Concepts: Experiment Sample Space Event notes2 Probability: 3 types Classical Probability Relative Frequency Probability Subjective Probability notes2 Law of large numbers Expressing Probability in terms of "odds" notes2 Concepts involving events. Consider the experiment of rolling a pair of fair dice. Event Complement of an event (A') Mutually exclusive events Exhaustive (or ‘collectively exhaustive’) events notes2 Experiment: Roll a pair of fair dice (one red, one green) Sample Space: (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) __________________________________________________________________________ Assumption: the dice are “fair” (balanced), so each sample point has the same probability of 1/36. Let A = {Total is a 6} = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5,1)}. Then P{A} = ________ Let B = {Red die is even} = {(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)} Then P{B} = ________ Combinations of Events: Union: P{A or B} = P{(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6), (1,5), (3,3), (5,1)} So P{A or B} = ________ Intersection: P{A and B} = P{(2, 4), (4, 2)} So P{A and B} = ________ notes2 Relating unions and intersections: P{A or B} = So in our example P{A or B} = AB notes2 Recall the dice example: A = {total is 6} = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5,1)} B = {Red (first) die is even} = {(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)} P{A} = 5/36; P{B} = 18/36; P{A or B} = 21/36; P{A and B} = 2/36 The concept of conditional probability: P{A | B} denotes the conditional probability of A given B, meaning the probability that event A occurs if we know that event B has occurred. -
Lecture 1 - Introduction and Basic Definitions
Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions Jan Bouda FI MU February 22, 2012 Jan Bouda (FI MU) Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions February 22, 2012 1 / 54 Part I Motivation Jan Bouda (FI MU) Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions February 22, 2012 2 / 54 What? Randomness Probability Statistics Jan Bouda (FI MU) Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions February 22, 2012 3 / 54 Motivation of the course Probability is one of the central concepts of mathematics and also of computer science It allows us to model and study not only truly random processes, but also situation when we have incomplete information about the process. It is important when studying average behavior of algorithms, adversaries, . Jan Bouda (FI MU) Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions February 22, 2012 4 / 54 Applications of probability theory in computer science Information theory Coding theory Cryptography Random processes Randomized algorithms Complexity theory and many more . Jan Bouda (FI MU) Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions February 22, 2012 5 / 54 Bibliography M. Mitzenmacher and E. Upfal Probability and Computing Cambridge University Press, 2005 G. Grimmett, D. Stirzaker Probability and random processes OUP Oxford, 2001 W. Feller. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications John Wiley & Sons, 1968 R. B. Ash and C. A. Dol´eans-Dade Probability and Measure Theory Harcourt Academic Press, 2000 Jan Bouda (FI MU) Lecture 1 - Introduction and basic definitions February 22, 2012 6 / 54 Bibliography T. M. Cover, J. A. Thomas. Elements of Information Theory John Wiley & Sons, 2006 D. R. Stinson. Cryptography: Theory and Practice Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2006 R. -
Distribution ---Summaries
Distribution ------ Summaries 476 Distribution Summaries Discrete name P(k) = P(X = k) mean vanance and range for k E range uniform 1 a+b (b-a+1)2-1 -- on {a, a + L, , , ,b} b-a+1 2 12 Bernoulli (p) P(l) =p: P(O) = 1- p p p(l- p) on {a, I} binomial (n., p) (npk(l - p),,-k np np(l - p) on {O, L ' . , , n} Poisson (11) ,,-11 , 1," -- /1 on {a, L 2, ... } h' 11 (C) (~- C) hypergeometric N, k n _. k nC (n. C) - II (C) CV~C) (N-n) on{O ....• n} C~) N N 1'v N-1 geometric (p) 1 1-p (1 __ p)k-Ip - -- on {L2,:L.} , P p2 geometric (p) 1-p 1-p (l-p)"p -- -- on {O.l, 2".} P p2 negative binomial (r. p) (k+r-l)p'(l_P)" r(l - p) r(l-p) on {a, 1,2, ... } r - 1 P p2 I Distribution Summaries 477 Continuous t uudefincd. density f (.r) c.d.±". F(:r) name range .\Ican Variancc for .r E range for :r E range 1 .r ~ 0 o+iJ (Ii ~ (/)2 uniform (a. Ii) (0. iJ) -- -- -- b~a 1i~1I. 2 12 1 --.-1 r 2 normal (0.1) (~x.x) --e 2' cp(.t) 0 1 V27T 1 -- I I _1.(:r_I,)2/()"2 2 nonna] (fl.. ( 2 ) (~:x.:x) --e 2 cP 1/ a V27Ta C: !l) I I I I I exponential (A) I (0. x) A,,-A.l" 1 ~ ( AJ' I/A 1/>.2 = gamma (l.