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A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by Commodity Research Bureau

E u r o p e a n M a r k e t Outlook

Preview for the week of November 17, 2008 CONTENT

This week, European markets will focus on: The G-20 meeting summit held in European Stock Commentary p. 2 • reaction to the outcome of the two- Washington D.C. over the past week- day Group of 20 (G-20) summit in end did not produce any major surprises. European Interest Rates p. 2 Washington D.C. over the weekend, Nevertheless, it was encouraging that the • the interbank lending situation which leaders of countries representing 90% of Economic Trading Calendar p. 3 continues to improve with the 3-month world GDP sat down together to focus on rate dropping to a 16-month the world's economic problems. That may Eurex Closing Prices p. 5 low, although interbank lending is still raise the priority level for trying to solve far from normal, intractable problems such as global financial • the increased chance for another 50 bp regulation, harmonized global accounting rate cut by the European standards, free trade, issues, and (ECB) at its next meeting on December more appropriate support for developing the second half of 2009 from what is likely 4 after last week's Q3 GDP reports put countries from agencies such as the IMF to be a rough first half. both Germany and the -Zone into and the World Bank. the technical definition of a recession, The ECB is scrambling to prop up the • the European equity markets which fell As expected, Q3 Euro-Zone GDP con- Euro-Zone economy. We now know that to a 2-week low last week but fared tracted -0.2% q/q for the second straight when the ECB raised its refi rate by 25 better than the U.S. S&P 500 which fell quarter, putting the Euro-Zone into a reces- continued p. 2 to a 5½-year low, sion for the first time since the introduction • the European bond markets as the of the euro currency in 1999. 's Grow with the top 50! 10-year German bund yield fell to a economy is suffering from multiple shocks, 2½-year low on prospects for further including the credit crisis and the after- Trade futures on the Dow Jones European economic weakness and ECB effects from last summer's rise in the euro EURO STOXX 50® Index. rate cuts, to a record $1.60 and the surge in crude Benefit from Europe’s leading • the euro which continues to trade on oil prices to an all-time high of $147 a index. a weak note just above its recent 2½- barrel. Euro-Zone GDP is likely to show a year low as dollar demand remains significant decline in Q4 when the credit strong and as the market expects fur- crisis reached full stride. The European ther ECB rate cuts, and Commission is still hoping that full-year www.eurexchange.com • crude oil prices which plunged to a 21- Euro-Zone GDP in 2009 can average month low on global recession fears. +0.1% as the economy slowly improves in

Copyright 2008 © Commodity Research Bureau. All Rights Reserved. www.barchartinc.com 1 European Market Outlook, November 17-21, 2008

bp to 4.25% in early July, the Euro-Zone spot Euribor rate last week fell 25 bp to a October Bank of business sentiment economy was already in a recession. The 16-month low of 4.22%, which is 74 bp index (expected -2 to a 15-year low of 85). ECB in July was fixated on perceived infla- below the 4.96% level that prevailed prior tion threats and thought the Euro-Zone to the credit crisis but still 26 bp above the Tuesday brings several appearances by ECB economy would pick up in the second half 3.96% level that should theoretically prevail Council members. of 2008. Instead, the worst financial crisis following the ECB's overall 100 bp rate cut. since the Great Depression emerged to sink The implied yield on the March 2009 Eurex Wednesday brings comments by ECB the Euro-Zone economy in the second half EURIBOR Futures contract last Friday closed Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez of 2008. The ECB has so far cut its 2-week at 2.855%, falling by 15 bp on the week Ordonez in . refinancing rate by a total of 100 bp to to a level that is now 39.5 bp below the 3.25%. However, the ECB's refi rate is still ECB's 2-week refinancing rate of 3.25%. Thursday brings October German producer 225 bp above the U.S. Federal Reserve's According to overnight indexed swap rates, prices (expected -0.7% m/m and +7.3% 1.00% federal funds target. the market expects the ECB to cut the 2- y/y). week refinancing rate by 50 bp at the next Short-term Rate Indications—Interbank meeting December 4 and by a total of 100 Friday brings (1) October French consumer lending rates have fallen steadily for the bp to 2.25% by February 2009. spending (expected +0.9% y/y) and (2) the past five weeks as the paralysis in the credit European PMI manufacturing and service markets continues to ease. The 3-month Economic Calendar—Monday brings the indexes.

European Stock Commentary

European stock markets this week will Futures closed 4.3% lower on the week. still reluctant to lend to each other, and focus on (1) the extent of and duration The Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50® also fell (4) earnings disappointments and sharp of the recession now engulfing the Euro- to a 2-week low last Thursday and closed downward revisions in earnings estimates Zone economy, (2) interbank lending rates 5.5% lower on the week. The December for 2009. which continue to decline although fund- Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50® Futures con- ing for corporations remains difficult, (3) tract closed 5.3% lower on the week. Bullish factors included (1) comments from the sell-off in crude oil to a 21-month low ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet that the which should begin to help consumers and Bearish factors for European stocks last ECB's "considerable" policy actions will businesses, and (4) the winding down of week included (1) the recessionary Q3 GDP help restore confidence in the Euro-Zone, the Q3 earnings reporting season and the data and the recognition that the situation (2) the unexpected gain in French Q3 GDP prospects for Q4 and 2009 earnings. will be worse in Q4, (2) the 15% decline (+0.1 versus expectations of -0.1%), and in European car sales in October, the sixth (3) the drop in the 3-month Euribor rate to Germany’s DAX® Index dropped to a 2- straight monthly decline, (3) comments a 16-month low of 4.22% which indicated week low last Thursday and ended 4.6% from ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo that the U.S. and European banking crisis is lower on the week. December DAX® Bini Smaghi that commercial banks are receding. European Interest Rates

European interest rate markets this week (4) the stimulative effect on the economy yield fell to a 2½-year low last Thursday, will focus on (1) the continued deteriora- of the recent plunge in crude oil prices to a but closed only 0.5 bp lower on the week tion in the Euro-Zone economy which 21-month low and commodity prices to a at 3.675%. The shorter end of the yield could pressure European stock prices and 2½-year low. curve extended its rally with December boost demand for European bonds, (2) 5-year Euro-Bobl Futures prices posting a continued dovish comments from ECB December Euro-Bund Futures last week contract high last Friday and closing +0.53 Council members hinting at further rate extended the month-long rally to a new points on the week. December 2-year cuts, (3) the extent of weakness in the contract high and closed 0.80 points higher Euro-Schatz Futures prices rallied to a con- European and global economic data, and on the week. The 10-year German Bund tract high last Friday and closed the week

2 European Market Outlook, November 17-21, 2008

up 0.34 points. September Euro-Zone industrial produc- the ECB room for additional expansionary tion (-2.4% y/y), which represented the measures." Bullish factors for Euro-Bund prices largest annual decline in 6½ years, (4) the last week included (1) the weakness in decline in October German wholesale price Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected European stocks last week, which prompted growth to a 14-month low of +3.6% y/y, gain in the October German ZEW economic additional cash flows from stocks to bonds, (5) comments from ECB Council member sentiment index (+9.5 to -53.5), and (2) (2) the drop in the December Euro-Zone Athanasios Orphanides that he expects the the ECB's new program of accepting col- Sentix investor confidence index to its ECB to issue "much more pessimistic" eco- lateral denominated in other than lowest level since the series began in July nomic growth forecasts next month, and in an effort make it easier for banks 2002 (-8.6 to -36.4), indicating the extent (6) comments from ECB Council member to obtain ECB funding and boost liquidity in of investor concern about the credit crisis, Ewald Nowotny that "inflation expectations the banking system. (3) the larger-than-expected decline in should come down fast and that will give Global Economic Trading Calendar

Country Time Event Monday, November 17 US 0830 ET Nov Empire manufacturing index expected -1.5 to –26.1, Oct –17.2 to –24.6. 0900 ET Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks to the Institute of International Bankers’ conference on the topic “Global Financial Crisis and the Regulatory Environment: What’s Broken and What Isn’t.” 0915 ET Oct industrial production expected +0.2%, Sep -2.8%. Oct capacity utilization expected unchanged at 76.4%, Sep 2.3 to 76.4%. 1300 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-Bill auctions. FRA 0130 ET Oct Bank of France business sentiment expected –2 to 85, Sep –7 to 87. EUR 0350 ET ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Axel Weber delivers a speech entitled “Central Banks and Financial Markets” in Frankfurt. 0500 ET Sep Euro-Zone trade balance (seasonally adjusted) expected –5.7 billion euros, Aug –6.1 billion euros. Tuesday, November 18 US 0745 ET ICSC (Int’l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales, previous –1.0% w/w and +0.4% weekly y/y. 0830 ET Oct producer price index (PPI) expected –1.8% m/m and +6.2% y/y, Sep –0.4% m/m and +8.7% y/y. Oct PPI ex food and energy expected +0.1% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Sep +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y. 0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales, previous –1.2% month-to-date m/m and –1.0% month-to-date y/y. 0900 ET Sep net long-term TIC flows, Aug +$14.0 billion. 0930 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair testify before the House Committee on the Treasury’s $700 billion bank rescue program. 1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-Bill auction. 1300 ET Treasury auctions 1-year T-Bills. 1300 ET Nov NAHB housing market index expected unchanged at 14, Oct –3 to 14. 1700 ET ABC U.S. weekly consumer confidence, previous –2 to -50. JPN 0000 ET Revised Sep Japan leading index, previous 89.2. Revised Sep coincident index, previous 100.8. 0030 ET Oct Japan nationwide department store sales, Sep –4.7% y/y. 1850 ET Sep Japan all industry activity index expected –0.1%, Aug –1.8%. UK 0430 ET Oct UK consumer price index (CPI) expected +0.1% m/m and +4.8% y/y, Sep +0.5% m/m and +5.2% y/y. Oct core CPI expected +2,2% y/y, Sep +2.2% y/y. 0430 ET Oct UK retail price index (RPI) expected +0.1% m/m and +4.6% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and +5.0% y/y. Oct RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +5.2% y/y, Sep +5.5% y/y. EUR 0310 ET ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell delivers a speech at the 11th Euro Finance Week. 0500 ET Sep Euro-Zone construction output, Aug +0.1% m/m and –2.5% y/y. 1000 ET ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark delivers a speech at the 11th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. 1330 ET ECB President Jean Claude Trichet delivers a speech in London. Wednesday, November 19 US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +11.9% with purchase sub-index +9.0% and refi sub-index +16.1%. 0830 ET Oct consumer price index (CPI) expected –0.8% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Sep unchanged m/m and +4.9% y/y. Oct CPI ex food and energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y. 0830 ET Oct housing starts expected –4.5% to 780,000, Sep –6.3% to 817,000. Oct building permits expected -3.7% to 775,000, Sep –6.1% to 805,000. 0910 ET Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn delivers keynote speech at the Cato Institute’s annual monetary conference titled “Lessons from the Subprime Crisis.”

3 European Market Outlook, November 17-21 2008

Country Time Event Wednesday, November 19 (continued) US 1330 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at the Cato Institute’s annual monetary conference. 1400 ET Minutes of Oct 28-29 FOMC meeting. EUR 0330 ET ECB Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez speaks before the Senate Budget Committee in Madrid. UK 0430 ET Minutes of the Nov 6 Bank of England policy meeting. CAN 0830 ET Oct Canadian leading indicators expected –0.2%, Sep –0.2%. Thursday, November 20 US 0830 ET Weekly unemployment claims expected –13,000 to 503,000, previous -32,000 to 516,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +3,000 to 3.900 million, previous +65,000 to 3.897 million. 1000 ET Oct leading indicators expected –0.6%, Sep +0.3%. 1000 ET Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +2.5 to –35.0, Oct –41.3 to –37.5. 1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 2-year and 5-year T-notes to be auctioned Nov 24 and 25 (previous $34 billion 2- year and $24 billion 5-year). 1830 ET Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson speaks on the U.S. economy at the Reagan Presidential Library in California. 2100 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at a conference in Indiana entitled “A Personal View of the Current Economic Environment.” GER 0200 ET Oct German producer prices expected –0.7% m/m and +7.3% y/y, Sep +0.3% m/m and +8.3% y/y. UK 0430 ET Oct UK retail sales expected –0.9% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Sep –0.4% m/m and +1.8% y/y. 0430 ET Oct UK M4 supply expected +0.8% m/m and +12.7% y/y, Sep +1.5% m/m and +12.4% y/y. CAN 0830 ET Sep Canadian wholesale sales expected –0.8%, Aug –1.5%. JPN n/a Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision (expected no change to 0.30% benchmark rate). Friday, November 21 US 0815 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at a Maryland breakfast forum entitled “Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook.” 1215 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks to media members at the Fed Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 1240 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to the Economic Club of Indiana. FRA 0245 ET Oct French consumer spending expected +0.9% y/y, Sep +1.5% y/y. 0300 ET Nov French PMI manufacturing expected –0.6 to 40.0, Oct –2.4 to 40.6. 0300 ET Nov French PMI services expected –0.8 to 46.7, Oct –2.6 to 47.5. GER 0330 ET Nov German PMI manufacturing expected –0.9 to 42.0, Oct –4.5 to 42.9. 0330 ET Nov German PMI services expected –0.8 to 47.5, Oct –1.9 to 48.3. EUR 0400 ET Nov Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing expected –0.6 to 40.5, Oct –3.9 to 41.1. 0400 ET Nov Euro-Zone PMI services expected –0.8 to 45.0, Oct –2.6 to 45.8. Nov PMI composite expected –0.8 to 42.8, Oct –3.3 to 43.6. 0530 ET ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Axel Weber delivers a speech entitled “World Currency Regime-to Float or not to Float” at the 11th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. CAN 0700 ET Oct Canadian consumer price index (CPI) expected –0.3% m/m and +3.4% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y. 0700 ET Oct Bank of CPI core expected unchanged m/m and +1.9% y/y, Sep +0.4% m/m and +1.7% y/y.

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4 European Market Outlook, November 17-21 2008

Eurex Closing Prices for November 14, 2008 Symbol Last Change Open High Low Volume (daily) Open Interest Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) FGBL Z08 118.76 +0.43 118.15 118.82 117.78 583,770 1,056,281 FGBL H09 118.91 +0.46 118.23 118.91 118.00 1,946 18,003 FGBL M09 119.66 +0.43 0.00 119.66 119.66 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 585,782 1,074,284

Euro-Bobl Futures (FGBM) FGBM Z08 113.965 +0.210 113.720 113.985 113.460 333,682 1,002,630 FGBM H09 113.975 +0.220 113.625 113.975 113.505 3,241 19,102 FGBM M09 114.465 +0.210 0.000 114.465 114.465 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 336,924 1,021,732

Euro-Schatz Futures (FGBS) FGBS Z08 106.565 +0.095 106.425 106.575 106.335 374,396 1,612,277 FGBS H09 106.840 +0.100 106.685 106.840 106.630 15,364 104,914 FGBS M09 106.930 +0.095 0.000 106.930 106.930 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 389,760 1,717,191

Euro-Buxl® Futures (FGBX) FGBX Z08 93.96 +0.50 93.00 94.04 92.80 1,451 40,960 FGBX H09 94.02 +0.50 0.00 94.02 94.02 0 1 FGBX M09 94.14 +0.50 0.00 94.14 94.14 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 1,451 40,961

Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50® Index Futures (FESX) FESX Z08 2,465.0 +37.0 2,522.0 2,538.0 2,420.0 1,443,278 3,480,170 FESX H09 2,476.0 +39.0 2,537.0 2,539.0 2,438.0 1,871 108,609 FESX M09 2,423.0 +38.0 2,492.0 2,492.0 2,386.0 1,372 23,779 Daily Volume and Open Interest 1,446,522 3,612,558

Dow Jones STOXX 50® Index Futures (FSTX) FSTX Z08 2,158.0 +34.0 2,196.0 2,211.0 2,136.0 2,142 59,328 FSTX H09 2,156.0 +34.0 2,178.0 2,178.0 2,156.0 2 1 FSTX M09 2,102.0 +34.0 0.0 2,102.0 2,102.0 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 2,144 59,329

Dow Jones STOXX® 600 Banks Futures (FSTB) FSTB Z08 162.9 +1.3 166.7 166.7 162.0 862 24,496 FSTB H09 163.2 +1.2 0.0 163.2 163.2 0 5 FSTB M09 154.9 +1.3 0.0 154.9 154.9 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 862 24,501

Dow Jones STOXX® 600 Index Futures (F600) F600 Z08 2,059.0 +21.0 2,098.0 2,100.0 2,057.0 481 6,102 F600 H09 2,061.0 +20.0 0.0 2,061.0 2,061.0 0 0 F600 M09 2,103.0 +21.0 0.0 2,103.0 2,103.0 0 0 Daily Volume and Open Interest 481 6,102

5 European Market Outlook, November 17-21, 2008

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