A Matrix Chernoff Bound for Strongly Rayleigh Distributions and Spectral Sparsifiers from a Few Random Spanning Trees
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												  Probability Theory - Part 3 MartingalesPROBABILITY THEORY - PART 3 MARTINGALES MANJUNATH KRISHNAPUR CONTENTS Progress of lectures3 1. Conditional expectation4 2. Conditional probability7 3. Relationship between conditional probability and conditional expectation 12 4. Properties of conditional expectation 13 5. Cautionary tales on conditional probability 15 6. Martingales 17 7. Stopping times 22 8. Optional stopping or sampling 26 9. Applications of the optional stopping theorem 29 10. Random walks on graphs 31 11. Maximal inequality 36 12. Doob’s up-crossing inequality 38 13. Convergence theorem for super-martingales 39 14. Convergence theorem for martingales 40 15. Another approach to martingale convergence theorems 42 16. Reverse martingales 44 17. Application: Levy’s´ forward and backward laws 45 18. Kolmogorov’s zero-one law 46 19. Strong law of large numbers 47 20. Critical branching process 47 21. Polya’s´ urn scheme 48 22. Liouville’s theorem 50 23. Hewitt-Savage zero-one law 51 24. Exchangeable random variables 53 25. Absolute continuity and singularity of product measures 56 26. The Haar basis and almost sure convergence 59 1 27. Probability measures on metric spaces 59 2 PROGRESS OF LECTURES • Jan 1: Introduction • Jan 3: Conditional expectation, definition and existence • Jan 6: Conditional expectation, properties • Jan 8: Conditional probability and conditional distribution • Jan 10: —Lecture cancelled— • Jan 13: More on regular conditional distributions. Disintegration. • Jan 15: —Sankranthi— • Jan 17: Filtrations. Submartingales and martingales. Examples. • Jan 20: New martingales out of old. Stopped martingale. • Jan 22: Stopping time, stopped sigma-algebra, optional sampling • Jan 24: Gambler’s ruin. Waiting times for patterns in coin tossing. • Jan 27: Discrete Dirichlet problem.
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												  Discrete Time Stochastic ProcessesDiscrete Time Stochastic Processes Joseph C. Watkins May 5, 2007 Contents 1 Basic Concepts for Stochastic Processes 3 1.1 Conditional Expectation . 3 1.2 Stochastic Processes, Filtrations and Stopping Times . 10 1.3 Coupling . 12 2 Random Walk 16 2.1 Recurrence and Transience . 16 2.2 The Role of Dimension . 20 2.3 Simple Random Walks . 22 3 Renewal Sequences 24 3.1 Waiting Time Distributions and Potential Sequences . 26 3.2 Renewal Theorem . 31 3.3 Applications to Random Walks . 33 4 Martingales 35 4.1 Examples . 36 4.2 Doob Decomposition . 38 4.3 Optional Sampling Theorem . 39 4.4 Inequalities and Convergence . 45 4.5 Backward Martingales . 54 5 Markov Chains 57 5.1 Definition and Basic Properties . 57 5.2 Examples . 59 5.3 Extensions of the Markov Property . 62 5.4 Classification of States . 65 5.5 Recurrent Chains . 71 5.5.1 Stationary Measures . 71 5.5.2 Asymptotic Behavior . 77 5.5.3 Rates of Convergence to the Stationary Distribution . 82 5.6 Transient Chains . 85 5.6.1 Asymptotic Behavior . 85 1 CONTENTS 2 5.6.2 ρC Invariant Measures . 90 6 Stationary Processes 97 6.1 Definitions and Examples . 97 6.2 Birkhoff’s Ergodic Theorem . 99 6.3 Ergodicity and Mixing . 101 6.4 Entropy . 103 1 BASIC CONCEPTS FOR STOCHASTIC PROCESSES 3 1 Basic Concepts for Stochastic Processes In this section, we will introduce three of the most versatile tools in the study of random processes - conditional expectation with respect to a σ-algebra, stopping times with respect to a filtration of σ-algebras, and the coupling of two stochastic processes.
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												  Martingale Convergence and Azuma's InequalityLecturer: Prof. Yufei Zhao Notes by: Andrew Lin 8 Martingale convergence and Azuma’s inequality 8.1 Setup: what is a martingale? Definition 8.1 A martingale is a sequence of random variables Z0;Z1; ··· ; such that for every n, EjZnj < 1 (this is a technical assumption), and E[Zn+1jZ0; ··· ;Zn] = Zn: This comes up in a lot of different ways: Example 8.2 Consider a random walk X1;X2; ··· of independent steps, each with mean 0. Then we can define the martingale X Zn = Xi ; i≤n which fits the definition because we always expect our average position after step n + 1 to be the same as where we just were after step n. Example 8.3 (Betting strategy) Let’s say we go to a casino, and all bets are “fair” (have expectation 0). For example, we may bet on fair odds against a coin flip. Our strategy can adapt over time based on the outcomes: let Zn be our balance after n rounds. This is still a martingale! This is more general than just a random walk, because now we don’t need the steps to be independent. Example 8.4 Let’s say my goal is to win 1 dollar. I adapt the following strategy: • Bet a dollar; if I win, stop. • Otherwise, double the wager and repeat. This is a martingale, because all betting strategies are martingales. With probability 1, we must always win at some point, so we end up with 1 dollar at the end! This sounds like free money, but we have a finite amount of money (so this would never occur in real life).
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												  Stochastic CalculusStochastic Calculus Xi Geng Contents 1 Review of probability theory 3 1.1 Conditional expectations . 3 1.2 Uniform integrability . 5 1.3 The Borel-Cantelli lemma . 6 1.4 The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem . 7 1.5 Weak convergence of probability measures . 7 2 Generalities on continuous time stochastic processes 13 2.1 Basic definitions . 13 2.2 Construction of stochastic processes: Kolmogorov’s extension theorem . 15 2.3 Kolmogorov’s continuity theorem . 18 2.4 Filtrations and stopping times . 20 3 Continuous time martingales 27 3.1 Basic properties and the martingale transform: discrete stochastic inte- gration . 27 3.2 The martingale convergence theorems . 28 3.3 Doob’s optional sampling theorems . 34 3.4 Doob’s martingale inequalities . 37 3.5 The continuous time analogue . 38 3.6 The Doob-Meyer decomposition . 42 4 Brownian motion 51 4.1 Basic properties . 51 4.2 The strong Markov property and the reflection principle . 52 4.3 The Skorokhod embedding theorem and the Donsker invariance principle 55 4.4 Passage time distributions . 62 4.5 Sample path properties: an overview . 67 5 Stochastic integration 71 5.1 L2-bounded martingales and the bracket process . 71 5.2 Stochastic integrals . 79 5.3 Itô’s formula . 88 1 5.4 The Burkholder-Davis-Gundy Inequalities . 91 5.5 Lévy’s characterization of Brownian motion . 94 5.6 Continuous local martingales as time-changed Brownian motions . 95 5.7 Continuous local martingales as Itô’s integrals . 102 5.8 The Cameron-Martin-Girsanov transformation . 108 5.9 Local times for continuous semimartingales .