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Charlotte Harbor Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment The Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program (CHNEP) is a partnership of citizens, scientists, elected offi cials, resource managers and commercial and recreational resource users who are working to improve the water quality and ecological integrity of the CHNEP study area. A cooperative decision- making process is used within the program to address diverse resource management concerns in the 4,700-square-mile CHNEP study area. February 19, 2010 Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program March 2008 Policy Committee Mr. Tom Welborn, Co-Chair Mr. Jon Iglehart, Co-Chair Chief; Wetlands, Coastal, & Ocean Branch South District Director U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 4 Florida Department of Environmental Protection CITIES COUNTIES AGENCIES Hon. Adrian Jackson Hon. Adam Cummings Ms. Patricia M. Steed City of Bartow Charlotte County Central Florida Regional Planning Council Hon. Richard Ferreira Vacant Dr. Philip Stevens City of Bonita Springs DeSoto County Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Ms. Connie Jarvis Vacant Ms. Sally McPherson City of Cape Coral Hardee County South Florida Water Management District Ms. Melanie R. Grigsby Hon. Ray Judah Hon. Don McCormick City of Fort Myers Lee County Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council Hon. Herb Acken Hon. Carol Whitmore Brig. Gen. Rufus C. Lazzell (U.S. Army, ret.) Town of Fort Myers Beach Manatee County Southwest Florida Water Management District Hon. Tom Jones Mr. Jeffrey Spence City of North Port Polk County Hon. Charles Wallace Hon. Jon Thaxton City of Punta Gorda Sarasota County Hon. Mick Denham City of Sanibel Ms. Kathleen Weeden City of Venice Hon. Yvonne Brookes City of Winter Haven Management Committee Co-Chairs Mr. Bob Howard Mr. David Hutchinson U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 4 Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council Technical Advisory Committee Offi cer Citizens Advisory Committee Offi cers Mr. Greg Blanchard Ms. Wilma Katz Mr. John Ryan Mr. Kayton Nedza Ms. Elizabeth Staugler Mr. Warren Bush Staff Dr. Lisa B. Beever, Director (as of March 6, 2002) Elizabeth S. Donley, Esq., Deputy Director (as of August 27, 2003) Ms. Judy Ott, Program Scientist (as of July 1, 2008) Ms. Maran Brainard Hilgendorf, Communications Manager (as of January 28, 2000) ii Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program and the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council Ta b l e o f C o nt e nt s Contents List of Figures About this Report iv Figure 1: Sea Level Changes during Cenozoic Era 1 Executive Summary v Figure 2: Florida Shelf Sea Level Changes 1 Figure 3: Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures 2 Climate Change Context 1 Figure 4: Key West Tide Gauge Records 2 Climate Change Overview 3 Figure 5: Historic Calendar of Hurricanes 2 Climate Change Drivers 3 Figure 6: Greenhouse Effect 3 Climate Change Stressors 5 Figure 7: Climate Change Drivers and Stressors 4 Three Climate Change Scenarios 8 Figure 8: Hurricanes within 50 miles of Fort Myers 5 Climate Change Impacts 16 Figure 9: Intense Wildfi res can burn Wetlands 6 Critical Facilities 16 Figure 10: A new inlet (Charley Pass) 7 Economic Activities 22 Figure 11: Sea Level Rates (6000 years) 8 Cultural Resources 28 Figure 12: Global Sea Level Rise 1860-2009 8 Figure 13: Charlotte Harbor Regional Temperatures 9 Human Health 29 Figure 14: Fort Myers Average Temperature 11 Water Resources 33 Figure 15: Arcadia Average Temperature 11 Coastal Resources 36 Figure 16: Days per Year with over 90o -Southeast 12 Wildlife and Ecosystems 39 Figure 17: Days per year over 90o (1901-2008) 12 Conclusions 44 Figure 18: Average Water Acidity 12 Summary of Signifi cant Vulnerabilities 44 Figure 19: Annual Rainfall (1901-2008) 13 Challenges and Opportunities 46 Figure 20: Rainfall Delivered June thru September 13 Our Further Efforts 46 Figure 21: Tide Gauge Trends 14 Cited References 47 Figure 22: Systems Impacted by Climate Summary 16 Figure 23: Charlotte Regional Medical Center 18 Abbreviations 55 Figure 24: Debris in Mangroves 18 Appendix 1: Grouped Vulnerabilities 56 Figure 25: Shell Creek Reservoir 19 Appendix 2: SLAMM Predictions of Habitat Fates 58 Figure 26: Widening I-75 over the Peace River 20 Figure 27: Citrus Grove with road and drainage 24 Figure 28: Cypress Logging at Babcock Ranch 24 List of Maps Figure 29: Red Drift Algae on Sanibel 25 Figure 30: Mangroves Damaged by H. Charley 26 Map 1: CHNEP and SWFRPC Jurisdictions vi Figure 31: Lake Hancock Lake Level and MFLs 34 Map 2: Projected 2100 Sea Level Rise 15 Figure 32: Comparison of Flows to Estero Bay 35 Map 3: Emergency Facilities and Communications 17 Figure 33: Flooding in Punta Gorda 37 Map 4: Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment 19 Figure 34: Habitat Migration Conceptual Diagram 40 Map 5: Transportation Facilities 20 Figure 35: SLAMM Prediction Maps 41 Figure 36: SLAMM Prediction Charts 41 Map 6: Electrical Generation Facilities 21 Figure 37: Dry Bed in the Upper Peace River 44 Map 7: Agriculture and Forestry 23 Figure 38: Restored Salt Marsh at Island Park 45 Map 8: Mining 27 Map 9: Historic Structures and Lighthouses 28 List of Tables Map 10: Critical and Non-critical Beach Erosion 36 Table 1: Climate Change Scenarios 10 Map 11: Flood Zones 37 Table 2: Economic Activities 22 Map 12: Storm Surge 38 Table 3: Tropical Disease Occurrence 30 Map 13: Seagrass Migration 42 Table 4: Storm Surge Elevations 38 Charlotte Harbor Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment iii Charlotte Harbor Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment About this Report n 2008, the Charlotte Harbor National Estuary The CHNEP has a rich history of communicating Program (CHNEP) updated its Comprehensive technical scientifi c products for the general public. IConservation and Management Plan (CCMP). The The quarterly newsletter Harbor Happenings and the last new priority action added to the draft plan was website www.chnep.org are the major vehicles for under the Priority Problem “Stewardship Gaps” or communicating to the public. Documents such as the “SG”. The new priority action is: CCMP and this report provide CHNEP opportunities to present signifi cant and extensive information, with SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and bright compelling graphics that attract people to pick their local leadership to mitigate and adapt up and peruse. to the effects of climate change through joint efforts. Relationship of the Assessment to Subsequent to the addition of the draft priority action, other Projects the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 4 representing the southeastern United States, offered Following the EPA Region 4 award to prepare the funding assistance to accomplish the fi rst step of climate change vulnerability assessment, EPA named implementing the strategies of CHNEP’s new action, a CHNEP as one of six “Climate Ready Estuary” (CRE) vulnerability assessment. pilot projects. The pilot for CHNEP was to develop an adaptation plan for a small city in its study area. The CHNEP’s host agency, the Southwest Florida Regional SWFRPC vulnerability assessment has provided a Planning Council (SWFRPC), has a two decade history foundation for this work. Moreover, this foundation has of preparing planning tools to improve the region’s provided a base for: resiliency to severe storms. Its storm surge map, • City of Punta Gorda Climate Change Adaptation critical facilities assessments and hurricane evacuation Plan developed through the fi rst round of EPA scenarios have improved infrastructure investments, Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) pilot projects; land use decisions, and land conservation choices • EPA Region 4 Wetland Program Development providing for increased severe storm resiliency. In Grant Salt Marsh Vulnerability Assessment and 2000, SWFRPC partnered with EPA to assess sea level Adaptation; rise associated with climate change, building on its • Lee County Climate Change Vulnerability Report history of planning for climate. and Climate Change Resiliency Plan; and • A second round of EPA CRE assistance to develop Based on this history and its relationship to the CHNEP, CHNEP environmental indicators for climate the EPA Region 4 directed its funding assistance to change and model ordinances. SWFRPC in order to review the literature and regional data and to develop a comprehensive assessment of climate change vulnerabilities in southwest Florida. This report crystallizes the southwest Florida climate change vulnerability. This assessment has the added benefi t of helping to implement CCMP priority action: SG-K: Present scientifi c information in a form readily understood by the majority of people. iv Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program and the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council Charlotte Harbor Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Executive Summary he Charlotte Harbor Region is located within in the Charlotte Harbor Region along with three future southwest Florida. The region is currently scenarios of climate change to the year 2200. These Texperiencing climate change. The natural scenarios include: setting of southwest Florida coupled with extensive 1) Lower: a condition that involves a future development in the areas closest to the coast have in which signifi cant mitigative actions are placed the region at the forefront of geographic areas undertaken to reduce the human infl uence on that are among the fi rst to suffer the effects of a climate change, changing climate. 2) Intermediate: a scenario which falls within various forecasts, and Even in the lowest impact future climate change
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