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Lincolnshire County Council School Organisation Plan 2018/2019

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Lincolnshire County Council School Organisation Plan 2018/2019 Lincolnshire County Council School Organisation Plan 2018/2019 Page 29 Contact Details Enquiries relating to Lincolnshire's School Organisation Plan should be directed to: School Organisation Planning Team Lincolnshire County Council 51 Newland County Offices Lincoln LN1 1YQ Telephone: 01522 553535 [email protected] www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/schoolorganisation Legislation and Guidance Legislation and guidance regarding school organisation is available from the Department for Education's (DfE) website: www.gov.uk/government/collections/school-organisation Current documents include: Establishing a new school: free school presumption School organisation: local authority maintained schools Changes to the system of school organisation New school proposals Rural primary schools designation Making significant changes to an existing academy Establishing new local authority maintained schools Admissions policies for Lincolnshire schools are available to download at: www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/schooladmissions 2 Page 30 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 The Local Context ......................................................................................................................................................... 5 Population ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Available Provision.................................................................................................................................................... 6 Provision ....................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Early Years Provision ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Post 16 Provision ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) Provision .................................................................................. 9 Primary Provision .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Secondary Provision ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Satisfaction of Parental Preference ............................................................................................................................ 11 Pupil Projections Model.............................................................................................................................................. 13 Planning Areas ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Relevant Factors in Place Planning ............................................................................................................................. 14 Birth Rates .............................................................................................................................................................. 14 NHS GP Registrations .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Housing Development ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Migration ................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Armed Forces .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Private Education .................................................................................................................................................... 18 Seasonal Variations ................................................................................................................................................ 19 Travellers ................................................................................................................................................................ 19 Opening New or Expanding Existing Schools .............................................................................................................. 20 Actual and Projected Pupil Numbers by District Authorities ..................................................................................... 21 District Authorities in Lincolnshire ......................................................................................................................... 21 Map of Lincolnshire District Authorities ................................................................................................................. 23 Actual and Projected Reception Numbers by District Authority ............................................................................ 24 Actual and Projected Year 7 Numbers by District Authority .................................................................................. 28 Glossary ...................................................................................................................................................................... 32 3 Page 31 Introduction Local Authorities (LAs) are under a statutory duty to ensure that there are sufficient school places in their area, promote high educational standards, ensure fair access to educational opportunity for all and promote the fulfilment of every child’s educational potential. They must also promote diversity and increase parental choice where possible. In order to carry out this statutory duty LAs need to carry out school place planning and forecasting. School organisation planning is a vital core function of all LAs to ensure that the statutory duty of providing sufficient school places is carried out effectively at a local level with an efficient use of limited resources. All LAs receive limited 'Basic Need' capital funding to invest in expanding schools and academies where there is an evidenced based business case to support the need. The LA continually monitor the pressure on school places across the county to plan where to target available capital that is allocated by central government based on pupil projections and capacity data submitted to the DfE on an annual basis. The purpose of this report is to: Explain the function of pupil place planning Highlight the factors and demographic trends effecting the provision of school places in Lincolnshire Highlight trends and areas where there is surplus capacity or potential pressure on places if the LA were not to take appropriate action Increase in demand can lead to the creation of a new school or the expansion of schools to add permanent or temporary additional classrooms. Surplus places can also mean the reduction of school provision in an area through the decrease of published admission numbers or the rationalisation of school provision to retain sustainable, viable schools that serve their local areas. Any review of school provision undertaken by the LA (e.g. opening, closing, amalgamating, expanding etc.) will, in part, be assessed in line with the procedures for projecting need as detailed in this document and would be subject to a statutory process for making prescribed changes to a school or significant changes to an academy. 4 Page 32 The Local Context Lincolnshire is the fourth largest in England covering an area of 5,921 sq. km; it is predominately a rural county with several large market towns and one city, Lincoln. The county is made up of seven district/borough councils, is bordered by nine local authorities and the east of the county is bordered by the North Sea. It does not include the unitary authorities of North and North East Lincolnshire. Population Lincolnshire has a low population density, but is experiencing significant population growth overall particularly in urban areas of the county; this has an ongoing impact on the availability of school places. Research data showed a population increase in Lincolnshire of 8.8% between 2004 and 2014, the comparable figure for England as a whole is 8%. Latest population estimates states that 731,500 people live in Lincolnshire, of which an estimated 159,000 are children and young people aged up to 19 years. This is predicted to rise to 171,000 by 2026. An analysis of birth rate data is provided later on in this report. Population projections for children and young people aged 0 to 19 by district authority: District 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Boston 15,539 15,712 15,836 15,973 16,145 16,329 16,480 16,632 16,730 16,820 16,868 East Lindsey 26,699 26,720 26,812 26,986 27,214 27,502 27,719 27,916 28,067 28,136 28,219 Lincoln 22,713 22,758 22,734 22,766 22,826 23,027 23,246 23,392 23,574 23,656 23,747 North Kesteven 24,470 24,598 24,709 24,883 25,132 25,403 25,641 25,861 26,043 26,188 26,318 South
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