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Hotel Feasibility Study FEASIBILITY STUDY Proposed Hotel 910 NORTH MAIN STREET LAKEPORT, CALIFORNIA SUBMITTED TO:PR OPOSED PREPARED BY: Ms. Margaret Silveira HVS Consulting & Valuation City of Lakeport Division of TS Worldwide, LLC 225 Park Street 413 South Howes Street Lakeport, California, 95453 Fort Collins, Colorado, 80521 +1 (707) 263-5615 ext. 32 +1 (720) 877-1376 June-2017 June 16, 2017 Ms. Margaret Silveira City of Lakeport 225 Park Street Lakeport, California, 95453 HVS DENVER 413 South Howes Street Re: Proposed Hotel Fort Collins, Colorado, 80521 Lakeport, California +1 (720) 877-1376 HVS Reference: 2017020630 +1 (415) 896-0516 FAX www.hvs.com Dear Ms. Silveira: Pursuant to your request, we herewith submit our feasibility study pertaining to the above-captioned property. We have inspected the real estate and analyzed the hotel market conditions in the Lakeport, California area. We have studied the proposed project, and the results of our fieldwork and analysis are presented in this report. We have also reviewed the proposed improvements for this site. Our report was prepared in accordance with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), as provided by the Appraisal Foundation. We hereby certify that we have no undisclosed interest in the property, and our employment and compensation are not contingent upon our findings. This study is subject to the comments made throughout this report and to all assumptions and limiting conditions set forth herein. Sincerely, TS Worldwide, LLC Brett E. Russell, Managing Director, Senior Partner [email protected], +1 (720) 877-1376 State Appraiser License (CA) 3003666 Matthew D. Melville, Vice President State Appraiser License (CA) 3003361 Superior results through unrivaled hospitality intelligence. Everywhere. Table of Contents SECTION TITLE PAGE 1. Executive Summary 1 Ownership, Franchise, and Management Assumptions 2 Summary of Hotel Market Trends 2 Summary of Forecast Occupancy and Average Rate 6 Summary of Forecast Income and Expense Statement 6 Feasibility Conclusion 9 2. Description of the Site and Neighborhood 12 Physical Characteristics 18 Access and Visibility 20 Airport Access 22 Neighborhood 22 Proximity to Local Demand Generators and Attractions 23 Flood Zone 25 Zoning 26 3. Market Area Analysis 27 Workforce Characteristics 31 Radial Demographic Snapshot 33 Unemployment Statistics 35 Major Business and Industry 36 Airport Traffic 37 Traffic Count Volumes 42 Tourist Attractions 42 4. Supply and Demand Analysis 45 Definition of Subject Hotel Market 45 National Trends Overview 45 Historical Supply and Demand Data 49 Seasonality 54 Patterns of Demand 57 Regional Competition 60 Supply Changes 63 Demand Analysis 63 Base Demand Growth Rates 64 Accommodated Demand and Market-wide Occupancy 64 5. Description of the Proposed Improvements 66 Project Overview 66 Recommended Hotel Brands: Brand Overviews 67 Summary of Recommended Facilities 74 Site Improvements and Hotel Structure 74 Construction Budget Estimate 76 Conclusion 76 6. Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate 77 Historical Penetration Rates by Market Segment 77 Forecast of Subject Property’s Occupancy 77 Average Rate Analysis 79 Competitive Position 79 7. Projection of Income and Expense 83 Comparable Operating Statements 83 Forecast of Revenue and Expense 90 Rooms Revenue 93 Other Operated Departments Revenue 93 Miscellaneous Income 93 Rooms Expense 94 Other Operated Departments Expense 94 Administrative and General Expense 95 Information and Telecommunications Systems Expense 95 Marketing Expense 95 Franchise Fee 96 Property Operations and Maintenance 96 Utilities Expense 97 Management Fee 98 Property Taxes 98 Insurance Expense 99 Reserve for Replacement 100 Forecast of Revenue and Expense Conclusion 100 8. Feasibility Analysis 102 Construction Cost Estimate 102 Mortgage Component 103 Equity Component 105 Terminal Capitalization Rate 108 Mortgage-Equity Method 110 Conclusion 112 9. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions 114 10. Certification 117 Addenda Qualifications Copy of Appraisal License(s) List of Interviewed Stakeholders Copy of Engagement Letter Copies of STR Trends 1. Executive Summary Subject of the The subject of the feasibility study is a roughly 98,010-square-foot (2.25-acre) Feasibility Study parcel to be improved with a limited-service lodging facility; the hotel is assumed to be affiliated with a nationally recognized brand. The property, which is expected to open on January 1, 2019, is assumed to offer 55 rooms, a breakfast dining area, 2,200 square feet of meeting space, a fitness room, a lobby workstation, a market pantry, and a guest laundry room. The hotel will also contain the appropriate parking capacity (55 ) and all necessary back-of-the-house space. AERIAL VIEW OF RECOMMENDED SITE: DUTCH HARBOR In addition to evaluating selected sites for hotel development, we were asked to provide recommendations for potential facilities and brand affiliations. Our recommendations consider both the physical limitations of the recommended site as well as the trends in operating performance indicated by available market data. We note that existing lodging properties in the Lakeport area are limited to economy and bed and breakfast facilities. Based on the assumption that the recommended site will offer a minimum of 2.25 acres, we recommend the June-2017 Executive Summary Proposed Hotel – Lakeport, California 1 development of a 55-unit midscale hotel with interior corridors. The development of the proposed hotel is assumed to be one component of a multi-use revitalization plan, with oversight from the City of Lakeport. We have assumed that the city will partner with a hotel developer who will construct and manage the property. The subject site’s location is 910 North Main Street, Lakeport, California, 95453. Pertinent Dates The effective date of the report is June 16, 2017. The subject site was inspected by Matthew D. Melville on April 17, 2017. Brett E. Russell participated in the analysis and reviewed the findings, but did not personally inspect the property. Ownership, Franchise, The developer of the proposed subject hotel is yet to be determined. The City of and Management Lakeport owns the hotel site under consideration. We have assumed that a portion Assumptions of an adjacent site (owned by the local school district) can be assembled to increase the hotel site to a minimum of 2.25 acres. We expect that the City of Lakeport will commence discussions with potential hotel developers during the summer of 2017. Details pertaining to management terms were not yet determined at the time of this report. Our appraisal assumes that the proposed hotel will be managed by a professional hotel-operating company, with fees deducted at rates consistent with current market standards. We have assumed a market-appropriate total management fee of 3.0% of total revenues in our study. We recommend that the proposed subject hotel operate as a midscale, limited- service property. While we have placed heavy consideration on the Best Western brand, a specific franchise affiliation and/or brand has yet to be finalized. Other potential brand affiliation recommended for consideration include Comfort Inn and Quality Inn (both affiliated with Choice Hotels) and Wingate by Wyndham (affiliated with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts). Summary of Hotel The aggregate trend includes hotels in both Lake County and Mendocino County, all Market Trends of which are located within 50 miles of Lakeport. We note that most of the hotels in the trend are located in Mendocino County, as most of the hotels located in Lake County do no report data to Smith Travel Research. Still, the data provides a sound basis for understanding regional hotel trends and was utilized in our forecasts. Occupancy levels for the selected trend of hotels fluctuated during the period reviewed, ranging from roughly 47% to approximately 59% between 2006 and 2014. The significant drop in demand recorded in 2009 resulted from the economic downturn, causing occupancy to fall below 49% in that year. Increased occupancy levels in 2015 and 2016 are indicative of the impact of the Valley Fire and Clayton Fire. Accommodated room nights in these years were influenced by demand from fire crews, displaced residents, FEMA representatives, and other related parties. Market-wide average rate remained generally stable between 2007 and 2013, in the June-2017 Executive Summary Proposed Hotel – Lakeport, California 2 low $80s. Increased demand in 2015 and 2016 resulted in stronger average rate growth, with levels surpassing $100. Year-to-date 2017 data illustrate some softening in occupancy and a roughly $3.00 loss in average rate. Market-wide performance for 2015 and 2016 were impacted by demand resulting from the Valley Fire and Clayton Fire. The absence of this demand in the year-to-date period contributed to the decline recorded through March. The long-term outlook for the market is generally positive, with opportunity for growth associated with the heightened prominence of the region for wine and outdoor recreation. However, near-term performance is expected to be influenced by the decrease in demand with the assumed absence of further natural disasters. The following table provides a historical perspective on the supply and demand trends for a selected set of hotels, as provided by STR. June-2017 Executive Summary Proposed Hotel – Lakeport, California 3 FIGURE 1-1 REGIONAL COMPETITORS: HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS (STR) Average Daily Available Room Occupied Room Average Year
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