City of Elizabeth Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

February 17, 2020

Mott MacDonald 111 Wood Avenue South Iselin NJ 08830-4112 United States of America

T +1 (800) 832 3272 F +1 (973) 376 1072 mottmac.com

City of Elizabeth 111111 2 B P:\Elizabeth City HMP Updates\2019 - Report Updates\Aug_2019-Updates\HMP_Draft Pre-DisasterUpdates-30Aug19_Draft.docx Hazard Mott MacDonald Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

February 17, 2020 Issue and revision record

Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description 0 8/27/19 RSL KEK KEK Draft 1 2/17/20 DL RSL KEK Final Draft

Document: 507380120

Information class: Standard

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507380120 - February 17, 2020 P:\Elizabeth City HMP Updates\2019 Contents

Executive summary 1

1 Introduction 2 1.1 Background 2 1.2 Purpose 5 1.3 Authority 5

2 Organization of Document 6

3 Planning Process 7 3.1 Determining the Effectiveness of Projects or Actions 8 3.2 The City of Elizabeth Planning Committee 8 3.3 Plan Preparation 9 3.4 Public/Community Involvement 9 3.5 Stakeholders Involvement 10 3.6 Use of Existing Information in Plan Preparation and Planning Process 10

4 City of Elizabeth Profile 12 4.1 History 12 4.2 Wards 13 4.3 Geography 13 4.4 Climate 14 4.5 Population Overview 14 4.6 Demographic Data 14 4.6.1 Gender 14 4.6.2 Age Groups 15 4.6.3 Education 15 4.6.4 Households 16 4.7 Economy 16 4.7.1 Household Income 17 4.8 Services 18 4.8.1 Police, Fire and Hospital 18 4.8.2 Transportation 18 4.8.3 Utilities 18 4.9 Land Use and Infrastructure 19

5 Risk Assessment 22 5.1 Hazard Identification 23 5.2 Natural Hazards 26

507380120 - February 17, 2020 P:\Elizabeth City HMP Updates\2019 5.2.1 Coastal Erosion 26 5.2.2 Coastal Storm/Nor’easter/Hurricane 27 5.2.3 Drought 29 5.2.4 Earthquakes 31 5.2.7 Flood 38 5.2.8 Hailstorms 39 5.2.9 Ice Jams 39 5.2.10 Mosquito-Borne Disease and Ticks 39 5.2.11 Severe Winter Storms 40 5.2.12 Thunderstorms 41 5.2.13 Tornados 42 5.2.14 Tsunami 43 5.2.15 Volcano 43 5.2.16 Wildfire 44 5.2.17 Wind 44

6 Vulnerability Assessment 46 6.1 Overview 46 6.2 Methodology 50 6.2.1 Explanation of HAZUS-MH Risk Assessment Methodology 51 6.2.2 Explanation of Statistical Risk Assessment Methodology 51 6.2.3 Limitations of HAZUS-MH Statistical Risk Assessment 52 6.3 Estimated Costs and Losses 52 6.4 Land Use and Development Trends 53 6.4.1 City of Elizabeth – Existing Land Use 54 6.4.2 Revitalization Projects and Planning 54 6.4.3 Zoning 57 6.5 Relationship of Elizabeth’s Master Plan to Other Plans 58 6.5.1 Adjacent Municipalities 59 6.6 Hazard Vulnerabilities 62 6.6.1 Earthquakes 62 6.6.2 Flooding 63 6.6.3 Coastal/Tropical Storm, Nor’easter, and Hurricane 76 6.6.4 Coastal Erosion 84 6.6.5 Thunderstorms 84 6.6.6 Severe Winter Storms 85 6.6.7 Extreme Heat 86 6.7 Summary of Hazard Vulnerabilities 87

7 Capability Assessment 87

8 Mitigation Strategy 88 8.1 Overview 88

507380120 - February 17, 2020 P:\Elizabeth City HMP Updates\2019 8.2 Goals and Objectives 89 8.2.1 Mission Statement 89 8.2.2 Mitigation Goals 90 8.3 Range of Identified Mitigation Actions 91 8.3.1 Mitigation Techniques 95 8.3.2 Mitigation Techniques in the Planning Area 97 8.3.3 Alternative Mitigation Actions 97 8.4 Mitigation Action Plan 99 8.4.1 MAP and NFIP Compliance 109

9 Plan Maintenance Procedures 110 9.1 Implementation 110 9.2 City of Elizabeth Planning Committee 110 9.3 Evaluation, Monitoring, and Enhancement 111 9.4 Public Involvement 113 9.5 Integration of the Plan into Planning Mechanisms 113

10 Plan Adoption 114

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List of Appendices:

Appendix A - City of Elizabeth Resolution(s) – Updated Plan Approval Resolution

Appendix B - Meeting Documentation – Committee and Public Meetings Appendix C – Hazard Mitigation Plan 2017/2018 Questionnaire and Updates

List of Figures:

Figure 1-1: City of Elizabeth – State and County View, Section 1, Page 5

Figure 1-2: City of Elizabeth – Street View, Section 1, Page 6 Figure 1-3: Aerial Map of Elizabeth, Section 1, Page 6

Figure 4-1: Pie Charts of Education Achievement, Section 4, Page 18

Figure 4-2: Charts of Household Data (2017), Section 4, Page 19 Figure 4-3: Utility Service Providers, Section 4, Page 21

Figure 4-4: NJDEP Land Use and Land Cover GIS Layers Section 4, Page 22

Figure 5-1: Soil Class and High Liquefaction Areas of New Jersey, Section 5, Page 34 Figure 5-2: Peak Ground Acceleration Map for New Jersey and New York, Section 5, Page 36

Figure 5-3: USGS Community Intensity Map for New Jersey, Section 5, Page 38

Figure 5-4: Earthquakes with Epicenters in New Jersey, Section 5, Page 39 Figure 6-1: Conceptual Model of HAZUS-MH, Section 6, Page 54

Figure 6-2: Urban Enterprise Zones, Section 6, Page 58

Figure 6-3: NJDEP 2012 Land Use/Land Cover, Section 6, Page 60 Figure 6-4: City of Elizabeth Zoning Map, April 2016, Section 6, Page 61

Figure 6-5: USGS Earthquake Hazard Map, Section 6, Page 65

Figure 6-7: Extent of Flooding during a 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 68 Figure 6-8: Debris Generated during a 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 70

Figure 6-9: Displaced Population/Persons during a 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 71

Figure 6-10: Building Losses by Occupancy Types - 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 72 Figure 6-11: Extent of Flooding during a 500-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 73

Figure 6-12: Debris Generated during a 500-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 75

Figure 6-13: Displaced Population during a 500-Year Storm, Section 6, Page 76 Figure 6-14: Building Losses by Occupancy during a 500-Year Storm, Section 6, Page 77

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Figure 6-15: Hurricane or Tropical Storm Probability, Section 6, Page 80

Figure 6-16: Estimated Debris Generated from a 100-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 82 Figure 6-17: Estimated Debris Generated from a 500-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 85

List of Tables:

Table 3-1: List of the Planning Committee Members, Section 3, Page 11

Table 4-1: Population Trend, Section 4, Page 17 Table 4-2: Population by Race and Ethnicity, Section 4, Page 17

Table 4-4: Land Use and Impervious Cover Percentage, Section 4, Page 23

Table 5-1: New Jersey Storm and Disaster History, Section 5, Page 27 Table 5-2: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Section 5, Page 31

Table 5-3: Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, Section 5, Page 35

Table 5-4: Damaging Earthquakes Felt in New Jersey, Section 5, Page 37 Table 5-5: Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale, Section 5, Page 45

Table 6-1: Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment by Hazard, Section 6, Page 50

Table 6-2: City Population and Number of Buildings/Building Value, Section 6, Page 56 Table 6-3: Building Exposure by Occupancy Type, Section 6, Page 56

Table 6-4: Expected Building Damage by Occupancy – 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 69

Table 6-5: Expected Damage to Essential Facilities – 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 70 Table 6-6: Building Related Economic Loss Estimates - 100-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 72

Table 6-7: Expected Building Damage by Occupancy 500-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 74

Table 6-8: Expected Damage to Essential Facilities 500-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 75 Table 6-9: Building Related Economic Loss Estimates (Millions) 500-Year Flood, Section 6, Page 77

Table 6-10: Expected Building Damage by Occupancy 100-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 81

Table 6-11: Expected Building Damage by Type 100-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 81 Table 6-12: Expected Damage to Essential Facilities - 100-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 81

Table 6-13: Building Related Economic Loss Estimates 100-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 83

Table 6-14: Expected Building Damage by Occupancy 500-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 84 Table 6-15: Expected Building Damage by Type 500-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 84

Table 6-16: Expected Damage to Essential Facilities - 500-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 84

Table 6-17: Building Related Economic Loss Estimates 500-Year Hurricane, Section 6, Page 86

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Table 6-18: Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment, Section 6, Page 90

Table 8-1: Mitigation Projects, Section 8, Page 94 Table 8-2: Mitigation Matrix – Natural Hazards, Section 8, Page 99

Table 8-3: Alternative Mitigation Actions By Hazards, Section 8, Page 100

Table 8-4: Mitigation Action Worksheet, Section 8, Page 101 Table 8-5: Mitigation Action Matrix, Section 8, Page 104

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Executive summary

The Hazard Mitigation Plan (Plan) for the City of Elizabeth (Elizabeth or the City), Union County, New Jersey is a local mitigation plan that has been developed through collaborative efforts all areas of its governing body, including local stakeholders. The Plan represents a comprehensive effort by the City to perform pre- disaster mitigation planning. This Plan is a 2019 update to the last 2014 updated Plan as required by FEMA and stipulated in the 2014 Plan.

The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) require state and local jurisdictions to develop, adopt and update their Hazard Mitigation Plans to remain eligible for certain funding tools from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The City has experienced consistent but unpredictable disasters, including Presidential-declared disasters ranging from significant snowstorms, hurricanes and flooding. Given the geographic location and coastal nature of Elizabeth, it is more vulnerable to certain natural disasters and hazards which have the potential to result in a loss of life as well as to severe economic hardship. As a result, the City, independent from Union County and any other Union County municipalities, has developed, adopted and will continue to update their local Plan to be eligible for the FEMA hazard mitigation tools and grant funding.

This Plan has been developed and updated in accordance with FEMA rules and regulations and in cooperation with both FEMA and the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM), as documented in the Mitigation Plan Crosswalk provided as an attachment to this document.

This Plan establishes a broad vision with strategic objectives to eliminate and/or reduce vulnerabilities specific to the City. The purpose of pre-disaster mitigation planning is to mitigate known and potential hazards; thereby, protecting human life and property and reducing future expenditures for economic loss in the future disaster events. This Plan incorporates hazard mitigation principles and practices into local government policies and functions of the City. This Plan is considered a living document and shall be implemented and continue to be updated as required and specified in the Plan Maintenance Program.

The primary objectives of the Plan are:

· To protect human life, safety and property by reducing future potential of harm;

· To reduce or eliminate future damages or economic losses resulting from natural or man-made hazards;

· To enhance recovery and redevelopment following a disaster or hazard event;

· To maintain critical facilities in functioning order; and,

· To qualify for grant funding in both pre-disaster and post-disaster circumstances.

This Plan evaluates and characterizes all relevant natural hazards for the entire jurisdiction and provides, as available, details pertaining to past occurrences and impacts of prior hazard events as well as the probability of future events. The Plan utilizes the comprehensive hazard/risk analysis developed as part of this pre-disaster mitigation planning process to establish mitigation goals and strategies, which are set forth for Elizabeth. The Plan also establishes a process for implementing, reviewing and monitoring the Plan to ensure that the Plan remains relevant and addresses changing conditions, as put forth in this update.

The City is pleased with the participation from its departments as well as the public and other stakeholders that have been involved in the continuation of this Plan. This Plan is a significant effort in pre-disaster

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mitigation planning for the City and the continuing successful development of this Plan is due primarily to the substantial contribution of time and effort on the part of the members of the Elizabeth’s PDM Planning Committee. This Plan demonstrates the City’s ongoing commitment to reducing risks of lives and property from hazard events. 1 Introduction

The Plan for the City is a municipal hazard mitigation plan that has been developed through a collaborative effort of its governing body, including local stakeholders. The current update to this Plan represents a comprehensive effort to perform and continue pre-disaster hazard mitigation planning.

1.1 Background The City of Elizabeth is the fourth largest city in New Jersey. It is a 12.32 square mile, fully developed urban community located in the eastern portion of Union County, New Jersey. Elizabeth serves as the County Seat and contains a number of critical governmental facilities, including the Union County Administration Building, Union County College, Union County Courthouse, and the Union County Department of Corrections and Jail. Elizabeth also contains major international transportation facilities - the Newark Liberty International Airport and the Port Elizabeth / Newark Marine Terminals. Elizabeth has two regional train stations, Elizabeth Train Station located in Midtown and the North Elizabeth Train Station at North Avenue, both providing direct access to New York Penn Station via New Jersey Transit and Amtrak. Elizabeth is traversed by the New Jersey Turnpike, US Routes 1 & 9, New Jersey State Routes 27, 28 and 81 and Interstate Highway I-278/Goethals Bridge. The City of Elizabeth is contiguous with six municipalities which include the Township of Hillside, the City of Linden, Borough of Roselle, Borough of Roselle Park and the Township of Union in Union County. The City of Newark in Essex County also borders the City of Elizabeth to the north.

The following Figures shown the geographic location of the City of Elizabeth: Figure 1-1 provides the location of Elizabeth within Union County and within the State of New Jersey; Figure 1-2 provides a street view of Elizabeth; and Figure 1-3 is an aerial map of Elizabeth. These figures are Geographic Information System (GIS) database maps which present land features, infrastructure, critical facilities, defined flood zones and other pertinent features for Elizabeth.

Elizabeth is characterized by a mix of suburban and urban areas and has a developed transportation system with both residential and substantial commercial and industrial businesses. Elizabeth has experienced varying disasters, including Presidential-declared disasters, and in recent years ranging from significant snowstorms, wind and rain from tropical storms (Cindy/Gordon), hurricanes (2018 Michael), to Nor’easters events. Given the nature and character of Elizabeth, it is vulnerable to natural disasters and hazards. The disasters and hazard events have the potential to result in a loss of life as well as to cause economic hardship. As a result, Elizabeth, independent from Union County and any other Union County municipalities, has developed, adopted and will continue to update this Plan to deem Elizabeth eligible for certain future FEMA hazard mitigation grant funding.

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Figure 1-1 City of Elizabeth – State and County View1

Source: Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository

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Figure 1-2 City of Elizabeth – Street View Source: City of Elizabeth

Figure 1-3 Aerial Map of Elizabeth Source: Google Aerial (2018

)

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Hazard mitigation is defined by FEMA as the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters. In order for mitigation to be effective, the City implements mitigative actions on an ongoing basis so to be proactive before the next disaster. Such actions will reduce or eliminate long-term risk to human life and property from natural hazards. The City currently implements a wide-range of actions such as rehabilitating transportation elements (roads and bridges), structures and buildings; continuing to modify and update building codes and resilient land development strategies; and developing and implementing local preparedness plans. Most importantly, the City has implemented mitigative actions prior to the occurrence of disasters and will continue a proactive approach to pre-disaster and emergency management. The development, adoption and continual update of this Plan establish a broad vision and clear objectives to eliminate or reduce vulnerabilities specific to the City of Elizabeth.

1.2 Purpose

The purpose of updating this Plan every 5-years is to establish continuing resolve by the City to mitigate known and potential natural hazards; thereby, being pro-active in protecting human life and property and reducing future expenditures in the event of a disaster. Also, on January 11, 2018 the National Institute of Building Sciences released Natural Hazard Mitigation - Saves: 2017 Interim Report, an updated and expanded version of their 2005 study, Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from Mitigation Activities. The original study showed that $1 spent on mitigation saves society an average of $4 in future disaster costs. With the inclusion of additional data and analyses, the 2017 Interim Report shows that the return is actually higher than $4.

The mitigation return of greater than $4 for every $1 spent is one important reason why the City is committed to updating and implementing natural hazard mitigation. This Plan incorporates natural hazard mitigation principles and practices into local government policies and into many routine City functions. This Plan is a living dynamic document that is updated on a scheduled basis, as specified in the Plan Maintenance Program. The primary objectives of the Plan are: · To protect human life, safety and property by reducing future potential for harm; · To reduce or eliminate future damages or economic losses resulting from natural or man- made hazards; · To hasten recovery and redevelopment following a disaster or hazard event; · To maintain critical facilities in functioning order; and, · To qualify for grant funding in both pre-disaster and post-disaster situations.

1.3 Authority FEMA has been authorized by Congress to make grants available to state and local governments for mitigating natural disasters pursuant to the provisions of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, 42 USC 5121, et seq. (Stafford Act), as amended, and, with reference to the planning process, as enacted by Section 104 of the DMA 2000. The NJOEM has been awarded grant funds in support of that goal and, as the duly designated Grantee, NJOEM has the authority to receive, administer and disburse FEMA mitigation funds for local government mitigation projects. Once this updated Plan is approved by FEMA, the City will be eligible for the next round of project funding going forward.

This updated Plan has been developed in accordance with FEMA regulations and in cooperation with both FEMA and NJ OEM, as documented in this Mitigation Plan. FEMA’s regulations and procedures require a

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full evaluation of natural hazards which are be assessed within the Plan and updated as necessary to accomplish current and future projects to mitigate potential hazards. The current approved Plan shall be re-adopted and the corresponding municipal resolution adopting the updated Plan shall be provided in Appendix A. 2 Organization of Document

This Plan has been developed on behalf of the City and is organized into ten (10) Sections with each Section providing the information necessary to accomplish the overall purpose of the updated Plan. In addition, the Plan includes an Executive Summary, which provides a summary of the comprehensive planning process and effort undertaken by the City. The Executive Summary also sets forth a series of goals, objectives and mitigation actions, which results from the collaborative planning effort and commitment to this endeavor.

Section 1 Including the Executive Summary, Section 1 provides the background and purpose for the preparation and continuing update of this Plan. Further, Section 1 describes the FEMA authority and assistances that drives the Plan.

Section 2 explains the organization of the Plan and provides a brief summary of the type of information presented in each Section. This Section is intended to facilitate review and/or consultation of this document by a wide-variety of readers.

Section 3 provides a description of the overall planning process including the implementation timeframe, the development of the Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) Committee and establishes the Planning Committee members. This Section also provides a discussion of public/community involvement as well as the efforts that were undertaken to include other identified stakeholders. Further, this Section identifies how the public/community, neighboring communities and other stakeholders were given the opportunity to comment on the plan prior to plan the updated approval.

Section 4 presents a profile information of Elizabeth and established the existing conditions. This Section provides information ranging from history to demographics, to existing land use and infrastructure, and provides a full characterization of Elizabeth as a whole as well as the individual nature of each district/community within the City. Section 5 identifies and describes the potential natural hazards, which are likely to impact all or part of Elizabeth. The hazard identification forms are the foundation for the risk assessment element of the Plan and allows for the development of an appropriate mitigation strategy. This Section documents the sources used to identify hazards, and discusses the hazard ranking process, which was used to eliminate and rank hazards. This Section also provides information related to past occurrences of hazard events and the geographical locations of past hazard events and potential hazards and areas within Elizabeth as well as a discussion of the severity of each hazard.

Note that risk assessments are completed for many potential natural hazards identified by FEMA, the risk and vulnerability assessments emphasis only natural hazards that have the highest potential for damaging infrastructure, people and livelihood, and the operations of critical facilities in the City. These hazards include flooding, coastal storms/coastal erosion, nor’easter/hurricane, extreme temperatures – cold and heat, severe winter storms and wind associated with all natural hazards. Both the risk assessment and mitigation action plan sections reflect this emphasis, which was the result of careful consideration and assessment by the City.

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Section 6 describes the vulnerability of Elizabeth to each of the identified hazards through an assessment of the types and numbers of existing and future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard areas. The future conditions described in this Section are based upon development trends, as established by Elizabeth. As appropriate, the Section distinguishes between the vulnerability of different areas within Elizabeth and notes if certain districts/communities are more vulnerable to specific hazards. This Section assesses vulnerability related to existing conditions as well as likely future conditions and, as possible, identifies special populations at risk, such as the elderly, disabled, or others with special needs, which may be at increased risk. To the extent possible, the updated Plan describes potential financial impacts to identified vulnerable structures and facilities.

Section 7 presents and discusses the capabilities of Elizabeth to implement mitigation actions. Although a Capability Assessment is not specifically required, the Plan includes the assessment as part of overall preparedness and to ensure the development of a comprehensive mitigation strategy. As per FEMA’s guidance, the Capability Assessment includes the identification of existing municipal mitigation activities, regulatory standards and planned projects, resulting in the integration of mitigation strategies with comprehensive planning and capital improvement programs ongoing and proposed.

Section 8 presents the mitigation strategies developed through the risk and vulnerability assessments. The strategies set forth the goals and objectives of Elizabeth and establishes the methods to be used to avoid or reduce vulnerabilities to identified hazards. This Section describes the selection process and re-identifies the list of potential mitigation efforts with an overall strategy. The strategy outlines the logistics of implementation, funding source(s) and the responsible entity for implementation of each mitigation effort/task or group of efforts/tasks.

Section 9 sets forth the Plan Maintenance Program, which includes both an annual review and a five-year review. The Plan Maintenance Program is established to ensure that the Plan remains relevant and addresses changing conditions as well as to facilitate incorporation of the Plan into municipal planning documents and strategies. In addition to the annual and five-year review, this Section also establishes a review system, which will be utilized subsequent to the occurrence of a federal or state “declared disaster”. Each of the established maintenance programs (annual, five-year and post-disaster) includes actions to ensure continued public participation.

Section 10 documents the Plan adoption processes. 3 Planning Process

Section 3 provides details about how the planning process is used to update the Plan. A four step process is implemented by the City and relies on FEMA How-To Guides, such as FEMA 386-1 (the 1st guide in the Mitigation Planning How-To Series) to initiate and organize Plan resources, FEMA 386-2 is used for performing risk assessments, FEMA 386-3 for developing mitigation strategies and documenting the planning process, and Mitigation Planning How-To Guide 4 (FEMA 386-4) discusses how to implement, assess and monitor the Plan after each adoption. These Guides assist the City in focusing actions necessary to establish and maintain the effectiveness of the Plan as a fundamental tool for risk reduction.

The City follows this simple four step process for updates and the continuing mitigation planning process.

· Organize Plan resources · Perform risk assessments · Develop mitigation strategies and update/documenting the process · Implement, assess, and monitor the Plan

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3.1 Determining the Effectiveness of Projects or Actions The planning area has been defined as the entire political jurisdiction of the City of Elizabeth. As stated above, Elizabeth utilized available technical documents such as FEMA's How-To Guides to formulate its planned actions and measures to determine the effectiveness of the implemented projects. For this Plan update, the City has reviewed their previous Planning actions and evaluated their successes and failures.

To facilitate the ongoing planning process and to review the Plan’s effectiveness, the City retained Mott MacDonald to assist with the update of this natural Hazard Mitigation Plan. Elizabeth’s Council passed a resolution dated March 12, 2019 that awarded a contract to Mott MacDonald for professional services associated with the updates to the Hazard Mitigation Plan for the City.

3.2 The City of Elizabeth Planning Committee Table 3-1 identifies the City’s Planning Committee members as of 2019 along with governmental departments and titles within the individual departments.

Table 3-1 List of the Planning Committee Members

Name Title Department

John F. Papetti Jr. Director of Public Works Public Works

Daniel J. Loomis City Engineer Public Works - Engineering

Albeiro Hincapie Jr. Superintendent of Public Buildings Public Works

Planning & Community Eduardo Rodriguez Director Development

Construction Official/Floodplain Planning & Community Raywant Sarran Administrator Development

Bridget Anderson Business Administrator Administration

City Land Surveyor/Supervising Steven P. Rinaldi Public Works - Engineering Engineer

Mark Colicchio Health Officer Department of Health

Krishna Garlic Director Department of Health

Chief of Police, Emergency John Brennan Police Operations Coordinator

Patrick Byrnes Fire Director Fire

Daniel Campbell Deputy Chief Fire

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The Planning Committee established the following elements of the overall process: · Schedule Planning meetings on an as-needed basis at City Hall. The meetings can be held at various stages of the planning process to ensure maximum participation. · Evaluate projects completed since 2015 and identify new potential projects to mitigate future hazards. · Schedule, evaluate and process information gathered in preparation for Planning meetings and to update this Hazard Mitigation Plan. Mott MacDonald may provide handouts, questionnaires and/or response summaries from other municipality departments or the public as part of the process. · Discuss new findings and implementation process during Planning Committee meeting.

3.3 Plan Preparation The Hazard Mitigation Plan update is a community specific effort by the City; as such, its success rests on the decisions and directions set by the local governmental department representatives (Planning Committee) throughout the Plan revision process. The Planning Committee, in turn, takes the lead by including the local community, assessing the alternatives and ultimately selecting the appropriate course of action.

Mott MacDonald has identified and profiled natural hazards; identified and characterized existing and expected future assets at risk in hazard areas versus those outside of hazard areas; assessed vulnerabilities; identified land uses and development trends in hazard areas; and provided guidance to the Planning Committee in terms of selection of goals, objectives, actions, an action item prioritization strategy; culminating in updating this Hazard Mitigation Plan. Mott MacDonald is assisting the City and the Planning Committee through the evaluation of necessary steps to update the Plan and provide information and presentations during public meetings.

3.4 Public/Community Involvement

The public must play a vital role in the overall Planning process and in recognition of the essential nature of public consensus, the Planning Committee has and will continue to make a concerted effort to provide the general public with information on the planning process as well as to inform the public on the actions being undertaken by the Planning Committee. In addition, the Planning Committee, with the assistance of other areas of Elizabeth’s government, provides opportunities for the public to voice opinions and to provide input throughout the planning process (via public meeting and/or through the Elizabeth website).

Two (2) public meetings will be held at the City of Elizabeth Municipal building (City Hall), Council Chambers in 2020. This location was deemed acceptable due to its known and accessible public location, and the facility size and its availability. The Planning Committee elected to publicize all meetings in the regional newspaper (Star Ledger), available local newspapers (Union County Local Source and La Voz), and given area demographics, a foreign language newspaper. Meetings were also publicized on City’s website as well as the website for the Elizabeth Public Library System. Notifications appear in the identified newspapers approximately ten (10) days prior to each public meeting. Public Meeting #1 was held in March 2020 at the City of Elizabeth’s Council Chambers located in City Hall. The public notice for this meeting will be published in the Star Ledger, Union County Local Source and La Voz. Meeting #1 was designed to provide the community with an overview of the updated planning process and overall planning effort of this Plan. Comments and questions were documented. Mott MacDonald prepared a PowerPoint presentation to obtain public comments and information on known or potential hazards.

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Public Meeting #2 was held on TBD at the City of Elizabeth’s Council Chambers located in City Hall. The public notice for this meeting was published in the Star Ledger, Union County Local Source and La Voz on TBD. Meeting #2 was designed to provide the community with an updated draft copy of the Plan for review and commenting. Mott MacDonald prepared an updated PowerPoint presentation to obtain additional public comments and information on known or potential hazards.

Copies of the sign-in sheets from the two Public Meetings are provided in Appendix B.

3.5 Stakeholders Involvement

The Planning Committee has determined that stakeholders should be included in the overall planning process during the development of the 2019 approved Plan. With the exception of the Committee meetings, all other meetings of the Committee were advertised in advance as being open to the public, including representatives from neighborhood organizations, private agencies, businesses, academia, nonprofits, and other interested parties who might wish to be involved in the planning process.

Committee membership itself did, however, include knowledge obtained through their awareness on the needs of several stakeholders including utility companies, hospitals, educational facilities and non- government transit authorities. The following is a list of stakeholders/facilities whose documented issues/concerns with Elizabeth have been noted by Planning Committee members and utilized in updating the Planning process. · Trinitas Hospital (Critical Facility) · NJ Transit · The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey · PSE&G · Verizon · Liberty Water Company · E’town Services, LLC · Elizabethtown Gas Company · Elizabeth Development Company · Elizabeth Board of Education · Joint Meeting of Essex and Union Counties · Kean University · Union County College · The Mills at Jersey Gardens · Housing Authority · Parking Authority

3.6 Use of Existing Information in Plan Preparation and Planning Process

44 CFR Part 201.6(b) states that the planning process shall include the review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information. The Planning Committee has utilized substantial existing information either in its entirety or as a basis for review of individual occurrences and conditions. The following represents a list of pertinent information to illustrate use of the extensive existing resources. Please note, additional source information is provided (hazard-specific basis) in Section 5, Risk Assessment.

· FEMA's "How-To" Series (FEMA 386-1, 386-2,386-3, 386-4, and 386-7)

· FEMA’s Using Hazus-MH for Risk Assessment (FEMA 433)

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· Hazard and event information posted on the following agency/organization web sites (includes hazard-specific fact sheets and information circulars): o Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA - https://www.fema.gov/) o New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM - http://www.ready.nj.gov/) o Northeast States Emergency Consortium (NESEC - http://nesec.org/) o U.S. Forest Service National Avalanche Center (https://avalanche.org/national-avalanche-center/) o The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC - https://drought.unl.edu/) o New Jersey Geological Survey (NJGS - https://www.state.nj.us/dep/njgs/) o U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA - https://www.fs.fed.us/) Forest Service o New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP - https://www.nj.gov/dep/) o National Interagency Fire Center (https://www.nifc.gov/) o New Jersey Forest Fire Service (https://www.state.nj.us/dep/parksandforests/fire/) o U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE - https://www.usace.army.mil/) o Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist (NJSC - https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/) at Rutgers University o Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC - http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/) at Cornell University o National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA - https://www.noaa.gov/) o Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/) o National Weather Service (NWS - https://www.weather.gov/erh/) Eastern Region Headquarters o National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) o Drought Information Center (https://www.weather.gov/ilm/drought) o Center Center for Disease Control (https://www.cdc.gov/) o U.S. Department of Defense – Audit of the DoD’s Preparation for Natural Disasters, May 16, 2019 (https://www.dodig.mil/Reports/Audits-and- Evaluations/Article/1850764/audit-of-the-dods-preparation-for-natural-disasters- dodig-2019-086/) § § U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Documents o "An Overview of Coastal Land Loss: With Emphasis on the Southeastern United States," USGS Open File Report 03-337, by: Robert A. Morton o "National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Atlantic Coast " by E. Robert Thieler and Erika S. Hammar- Klose (1999) o “Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO) to Sea-Level Rise,” USGS Open File Report 02–233, by: Erika S. Hammar-Klose, Elizabeth A. Pendleton, E. Robert Thieler, S. Jeffress Williams o "Land Subsidence in the United States," by Devin Galloway, David R. Jones, and S.E. Ingebritsen (U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1182) o Bush, D.M., and Young, R., 2009, Coastal features and processes, Young, R., and Norby, L., Geological Monitoring: Boulder, CO, Geological Society of America, p. 47-67, 11/30/2009

§ U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Documents o "North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS)” – Appendix D: State and District of Columbia Analyses, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study: Resilient Adaption to Increasing Risk – D-6 State of New Jersey, January 2015 o “New Jersey Shore Protection Study – Great Egg Harbor Inlet to Townsends Inlet - Feasibility Report - Integrated Environmental Impact Statement,” September 2001 o "Ice Engineering” – “Ice Jams, Winter 1999-2000”, September 2001 o Report No. A-2016-0128-IEE, “U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hurricane Sandy Recovery Program: Internal Controls (Contract Award Process),” August 18, 2016

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§ Elizabeth Government Information o Master Plan for the City of Elizabeth o City of Elizabeth Emergency Operations Plan o City of Elizabeth Land Development Code o City of Elizabeth Land Use Plan Element of the Master Plan 4 City of Elizabeth Profile

The City of Elizabeth Planning Area consists of six (6) sections known as Wards, encompassing a total of approximately 12.32 square miles (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2018) with a total population of 128,885. Elizabeth is New Jersey's fourth most densely populated City with approximately 10,462 persons per square mile. Elizabeth’s economy continues to grow due to an incentive sales tax cut pulling in over 1,000 businesses, including retail giants like IKEA. The UEZ (Urban Enterprise Zone) Program is responsible for over 1.5 billion dollars in new economic development since its incorporation into Elizabeth. In addition to the City’s corporate giants and growing economy, the Port Authority Marine Terminal which is the largest container port on the east coast, the Jersey Gardens Mall which is the largest outlet mall in New Jersey and Newark Liberty International Airport which has the fifth busiest international air gateway are located in Elizabeth.

4.1 History The history of Elizabeth dates back to 1664, when a group of Englishmen formed the Elizabethtown Associates and purchased a land area west of Newark Bay from the Indians of Staten Island. This area included the area of current day Elizabeth.

Elizabethtown was named in honor of the wife of Sir George Carteret and was established on the banks of the Elizabeth River in 1665. Elizabethtown thrived with a population of 700 and the City became the first capital of New Jersey. In 1665, Phillip Carteret became the first Governor of New Jersey and in 1668 the first assembly meeting took place. In 1706, Reverend Jonathan Dickinson, a graduate of Yale College, became pastor of an old Congregational Church, which he eventually persuaded to join the Philadelphia Presbyterian council in 1717. His church would be known as First Presbyterian Church of Elizabethtown. In 1746 at Dickinson’s request, the Governor of New Jersey granted the City of Elizabeth a charter for a classical school which would eventually become Princeton University.

In 1804 the Morris Turnpike was completed, improving travel on the old road between Elizabeth and Morristown and in 1836 the first railroad passed through Elizabeth opening up new means of development to the interior farmlands. In the 1850’s the Elizabeth Water Company and the Elizabethtown Gas Company received charters furthering the development of the town.

In the early 1990’s, Newark developed a plan which proposed annexation of much of Essex and Hudson Counties and parts of Bergen and Union Counties, including the City of Elizabeth. Newark sought to become the fourth largest city in the United States, ahead of St. Louis in population, manufacturing, banking and property valuation. The reason for annexing Elizabeth was based on the relative sophistication and maturity of the targeted town’s infrastructure. Elizabeth’s Water Company drew on the Elizabeth River to fill two reservoirs and in 1889 the company operated forty-six miles of water mains, serving 35,000 individuals. Its capacity was sufficient for foreseeable future development. A strong city infrastructure was the key to the City’s independence and progressive spirit in the early years of the 20th century and a defense against Newark’s annexation.

Today Elizabeth's diverse population represents more than 50 countries and 37 language groups. With its close proximity to Newark Liberty International Airport, which is partially located in the City, the New Jersey Turnpike, the Garden State Parkway, Routes 1 & 9, and Manhattan, Elizabeth has become a regional hub

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for the East Coast. Elizabeth also has two (2) New Jersey Transit (NJT) train stations that connect to New York City and to other areas of the State. The Port Newark/Elizabeth's 2,000-acre marina terminal hosts over 150,000 jobs and is one of the world's largest containership port and the largest foreign trade zone in the United States.

4.2 Wards Elizabeth is divided into six (6) Wards. The First Ward is located on the eastern side of the City bordering Newark Bay and the Arthur Kill inlet. A large percentage of the First Ward is occupied by the Port Authority Marine Terminal, which is the largest container port on the east coast and the third largest in the country. Located off the New Jersey Turnpike, the Jersey Gardens Mall is the largest outlet mall in New Jersey, occupying the majority of the commercial section in the First Ward. Surrounding this commercial area are many high-rise apartment buildings. The Second Ward is located just to the southwest of the First Ward and is mainly comprised of two-family residential, multifamily residential, light to medium industrial and light to medium commercial. The Third Ward is located directly west of the Second Ward and consists of mostly single-family residential houses and community commercial. The Fourth Ward is located directly north of the Second and Third Wards. This area has single family, two-family and multifamily residential dwellings along with community and some central commercial uses. The Fifth Ward is located in the northeast section of Elizabeth. The Fifth Ward contains a dense area of manufacturing and research facilities. Newark Liberty International Airport occupies the majority of this Ward and is the tenth busiest airport in the United States and the nation's fifth busiest international air gateway. The Sixth Ward is located in the center of Elizabeth. It is surrounded by the other Wards and has a greater percentage of commercial land use as compared to residential uses.

4.3 Geography Elizabeth is bordered to the north by the City of Newark, to the east by Newark Bay and further east by Staten Island, New York, to the south by the Arthur Kill, to the southwest by the City of Linden, to the west by Roselle Borough and Roselle Park Borough, to the northwest by Union Township and Hillside Township. According to the United States Census Bureau (July 2018), the City has a total area of 13.72 square miles consisting of 12.32 square miles of land and 1.4 square miles of water. Elizabeth’s average topographical elevation is sixteen (16) feet above mean sea level. Elizabeth is located in the Piedmont which lies northeast of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. About twenty (20) miles wide, this area covers only about 1/5 of the State of New Jersey and includes the industrial cities of Elizabeth, Patterson, Jersey City and Newark. New Jersey’s major rivers (Hudson River, Passaic River, Ramapo River, and Raritan River) are found in the piedmont area, supporting the areas’ industrial development.

Elizabeth is split into eight (8) districts; Midtown, Elizabeth Avenue/Union Square, North Elizabeth, Westminster, Elizabethport, Elmora, Elmora Hills and Peterstown. Midtown is the main commercial district as well as the main historic section and includes the First Presbyterian Church founded in the 1700’s. Elizabeth Avenue/Union Square is a vibrant and mainly Hispanic immigrant neighborhood and is situated just east of Midtown. North Elizabeth is a diverse working-class neighborhood. Morris Avenue, a main thoroughfare extends northwest to southeast. Many Colombian stores and restaurants front Morris Avenue and this area is sometimes given the nickname “Little Colombia". Westminster is one (1) of the more affluent and historic areas of Elizabeth, located between North Avenue and Elizabeth's border with Hillside. Elizabethport, which is dominated by industrial uses, has been an impoverished part of Elizabeth for many decades. Recent redevelopment efforts have been focused on this area. The population of Elizabethport is mainly Black, Puerto Rican, Dominican, Cuban and Portuguese. Elmora is a middle/working-class neighborhood in the western part of Elizabeth with a large Columbian and Jewish population. Elmora Hills is the northwestern part of Elizabeth just north of Elmora and is characterized by a strong middle to upper middle-class neighborhood, and largely Jewish population. Peterstown is a middle/working-class

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neighborhood in the southeast part of the City. It is ethnically diverse. The western terminus of the Goethals Bridge, which spans the Arthur Kill to Staten Island, is also located in this part of the City.

4.4 Climate Elizabeth experiences a temperate climate, including four seasons. Average annual high temperature is approximately 63.3° F, average annual low temperature is approximately 46.5° F and the average annual temperature is 54.9° F (U.S. Climate data, April 2019). The average annual rainfall is 46.24 inches and the average annual snowfall is 28 inches (U.S. Climate data, April 2019).

4.5 Population Overview The 2018 U.S. Census Bureau shows that the City has grown by 3,916 additional people between 2010 and 2018. Compared to other cities in New Jersey ranks as the fourth largest by population and largest in Union County. Please see Table 4-1 below.

Table 4-1 Population Trend Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 and 2018

% Growth since Municipality 2017/2018 2010 2000 Population Change 2010 128,885 Elizabeth (2018) 124,969 120,568 3,916 since 2010 3.13% 563,892 Union County (2017) 536,499 522,541 27,393 since 2010 5.1% 8,908,520 New Jersey (2018) 8,791,894 8,414,350 116,626 since 2010 1.3%

4.6 Demographic Data

The majority of the total population of Elizabeth identifies themselves as one (1) race, thus insight in racial composition have been obtained by reviewing race data from the 2018 U.S. Census Bureau. Table 4-2 below is from the 2018 U.S. Census Bureau. Table 4-2 Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2018

2018 % Share Total of City Categories for Race and Ethnicity Total

White 17.1k 13.3% Black/African American 24.7k 19.2% Native American & Alaska Native 0.5k 0.4% Asian 2.3k 1.8% Two or More Races 4.6k 3.6% Hispanic Origin* 82.6k 64.1% Based on an estimated population of 128,885 people in 2018 Census

4.6.1 Gender

Per the 2018 U.S. Census Bureau, Elizabeth’s population is generally split equally between genders. Amongst the approximate 128,885 citizens living in Elizabeth in 2018, 49.8% of the total population where males and 50.2% of the total population where females.

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4.6.2 Age Groups

The median resident age of the population in Elizabeth was 33.9 years in 2017 (Source: DataUSA.com) as compared to NJ median age of 39.5 years. Based on the 2018 U.S. Census Bureau, Elizabeth has 9,667 people under 5 years old, 33,768 people under 18 year old, and only 13,018 people over 65 year old. This mean that the City has a potential working class of 82,099 people between 18 and 65 years old.

4.6.3 Education

The City's public schools are operated by Elizabeth Public Schools and is a public school district headquartered in Elizabeth serving students in kindergarten through 12th grade. The district is one of thirty- one Abbott districts statewide ("SDA Districts") based on the requirement for the state to cover all costs for school building and renovation projects in these districts under the supervision of the New Jersey Schools Development Authority. As of the 2016 school year, the district's 34 schools had an enrollment of 24,885 students and 2,084 classroom teachers (on an FTE basis), for a student–teacher ratio of 11.9:1 (Source: District information for Elizabeth School District, National Center for Education Statistics – June 18, 2016).

In 2015, Elizabeth High School was one of 15 schools in New Jersey, and one of only nine public schools, recognized as a National Blue Ribbon School in the exemplary high performing category by the United States Department of Education (2015 National Blue Ribbon Schools All Public and Private, National Blue Ribbon Schools Program – data from November 2016).

The following education pie charts (Figure 4-1) below illustrates the proportion of educational attainment by large categories of achievevement. Elizabeth has the largest proportion of people with less than a high school education and with a dropout rate of 27% (similar to Newark, NJ) and is the most of all places in the local area (data from TownCharts - 2017 American Community Survey data - https://www.towncharts.com/New-Jersey/Education/Elizabeth-city-NJ-Education-data.html).

Figure 4-1 – Pie Charts of Educational Achievement

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Elizabeth has two (2) colleges; Drake College of Business and Union County College (at 3 campuses). Based on the number of students, the City maintains a substantial public education system including 29 elementary schools, 5 middle schools, 1 high school. The Elizabeth High School is the largest High School in New Jersey, comprised of five different campuses and one of the largest in the country. For the school year 2018-2019, there are 7 top private schools in Elizabeth serving 1,671 students. Minority enrollment is 62% and the student-teacher ratio is ~12:1 (Source: privateschoolreview.com).

4.6.4 Households

There were 40,219 households (compared to Union County 187,916) of all type based on the 2017 U.S. Census Bureau. The rate of ownership was 24.7% and the average household size was 3.16 and the average family size was 3.74. The graphs below in Figure 4-2 povide the most current U.S. Census Bureau 2017 data.

Figure 4-2 – Charts of Household Data (2017)

4.7 Economy

Based on available updated information of the City’s economy, twelve (12) sectors of employment are used and divided as follows: 1) Transportation and Warehousing; 2) Retail Trade; 3) Health Care and Social Assistance; 4) Industries; 5) Information; 6) Public Administration/Education; 7) Real Estate, Rental and Leasing; 8) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; 9) Waste Management and Remediation

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Services; 10) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation; 11) Accommodation and food services; and 12) Manufacturing.

According to DataUSA (2017), the City employs 62.4k people. The largest industries are Transportation and Warehousing (9,096 people), Retail Trade (7,381 people), and Health Care and Social Assistance (7,084 people). The highest paying sectors are Industries are Utilties ($52,917), Information ($52,328) and Public Administration ($48,906).

4.7.1 Household Income

The 2017 U.S. Census Bureau's survey also showed that the median household income was $45,186, up from $43,770 in 2010. Approximately 18.1% are considered in poverty and about 38% of the households own one car with 14% that do not own a car for transporatation (DataUSA-2017). The graphs below in Figure 4-3 povide the current 2017 U.S. Census Bureau household income data.

Figure 4-3 – U.S. Census Bureau Household Income Data (2017)

Summary

In 2017, in Elizabeth, NJ, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated population is approximately 128,885 people with a median age of 33.9 and a median household income of $45,186. Between 2016 and 2017 the population of Elizabeth grew from 128,042 to 129,363 (interim U.S. Census Bureau survey) and then dropped back to 12,885 people by the end of 2017. The median household income grew from $43,831 to $45,186, a 3.09% increase. The population of Elizabeth is 64.1% Hispanic or Latino, 16.9% Black or African

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American Alone, and 13.3% White Alone. 75.5% of the people in Elizabeth, NJ speak a non-English language, and 72.9% are U.S. citizens. The median property value in Elizabeth, NJ is $268,700, and the homeownership rate is 24.7%. Most people in Elizabeth commute by driving alone and the average commute time is 25.7 minutes. The average car ownership in Elizabeth, NJ is 1 car per household (DataUSA - https://datausa.io/profile/geo/elizabeth-nj/#housing).

4.8 Services

4.8.1 Police, Fire and Hospital

The Police Department is located at 1 Police Plaza and was established in 1858. It has over 300 officers. Elizabeth Fire Department has seven 7 stations within the City and retains approximately 269 career employees. The City has only one critical facility hospital that was formed from the merger of St. Elizabeth and Elizabeth General Hospital; currently known as Trinitas Hospital, it is located near the center of the City. Trinitas Hospital is a Catholic community teaching hospital sponsored by the Sisters of Charity of Saint Elizabeth in partnership with Elizabethtown Healthcare Foundation. Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are provided by the City’s Fire Department.

4.8.2 Transportation

Several major roadways run through Elizabeth including the New Jersey Turnpike, Interstate 278, Routes 1 and 9, Route 27, Route 28, and Route 81. Elizabeth also has two train stations which service New Jersey Transit's North Jersey Coast Line and the Northeast Corridor Line. Broad Street Elizabeth is the southern station in Midtown Elizabeth and the other train station in Elizabeth is North Elizabeth Station.

4.8.3 Utilities

A number of utility providers supply various services throughout the City as noted in Table 4-3. Table 4-3 Utility Service Providers

Utility Company Service The Joint Meeting of Essex and Union Counties Wastewater Treatment Liberty Water Company Water City of Newark Water Elizabethtown Services, LLC Sewer Newark Liberty International Airport Airport Amtrak Train NJ Transit Train, Bus Port Authority of NY and NJ Airport, Bus, Bridges Public Service Electric and Gas Natural Gas, Electricity Elizabethtown Gas Natural Gas Buckeye Pipe Line Company Liquid Fuel Colonial Pipeline Company Liquid Fuel Williams Transco Natural Gas Optimum Cable Television, Internet, Telephone Verizon Communications AT&T Communications Light Fiber Networks Communications

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4.9 Land Use and Infrastructure

The majority of Elizabeth is urban (color pink), aside from a few dispersed wetlands and barren land parcels. Figure 4-4 below shows NJDEP land use and land cover GIS layers in Union County with the City located to the furthest east-northeast along Newark Bay (dark blue). As described further in this section, additional data sources were reviewed to fully describe the land use and infrastructure of Elizabeth. Figure 4-4 Land Use and Land Cover GIS Layers, Union County Source: 2012 NJ GIS Database

The 2012 Land Use/Land Cover dataset is the fifth such data set that the NJDEP has produced. The initial land use/land cover layer was based on aerial photography captured in the spring of 1986. The second iteration of the land use data was based on photography captured in 1995, the third based on photography captured in the spring of 2002. The fourth, 2007, was based on photography captured in the spring of 2007. This latest update is based on photography captured in the spring of 2012.

As with all previous layers, the 2012 data were produced by visually interpreting color infrared photography. Through this process, photo-interpreters examine each image, and based on their knowledge of photo signatures, classify the image into various land use/land cover categories. The classifications are converted into a land use/land cover GIS digital file, with each delineated polygon representing a distinct land use/land cover type.

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All five land use/land cover data sets contain important land use data used in a wide variety of environmental analyses. Every effort has been made to ensure that all land use data sets are as accurate as possible. However, note that these LULC data are intended to be used as resources high level planning data sets.

Freshwater wetlands were first mapped under the New Jersey Freshwater Wetlands Mapping Program and were incorporated into the land use/land cover datasets. The wetlands presented in these data are for screening purposes only. The Land Use Regulatory Program (LURP) of the NJDEP determines the extent and final determination of wetlands in the State of New Jersey on a case by case basis. Table 4-4 below shows the data on NJ Land Use and Impervious Cover.

Table 4-4: Land Use and Impervious Cover Percentage Impervious Impervious Land Use Type Acreage Cover % AGRICULTURAL WETLANDS (MODIFIED) 1.9 0.1 0.1 AIRPORT FACILITIES 1509.0 1494.8 1.0 ALTERED LANDS 283.0 9.1 0.0 ARTIFICIAL LAKES 372.8 0.0 0.0 ATHLETIC FIELDS (SCHOOLS) 626.5 119.0 0.2 BRIDGE OVER WATER 20.8 0.0 0.0 CEMETERY 913.1 67.4 0.1 CEMETERY ON WETLAND 31.8 1.5 0.0 COMMERCIAL/SERVICES 6685.4 5698.7 0.9 CONIFEROUS BRUSH/SHRUBLAND 9.1 0.1 0.0 CONIFEROUS FOREST (>50% CROWN CLOSURE) 24.2 0.3 0.0 CONIFEROUS SCRUB/SHRUB WETLANDS 2.6 0.0 0.0 CROPLAND AND PASTURELAND 24.5 0.3 0.0 DECIDUOUS BRUSH/SHRUBLAND 189.4 1.4 0.0 DECIDUOUS FOREST (>50% CROWN CLOSURE) 5185.5 15.7 0.0 DECIDUOUS FOREST (10-50% CROWN CLOSURE) 549.6 7.7 0.0 DECIDUOUS SCRUB/SHRUB WETLANDS 85.8 0.0 0.0 DECIDUOUS WOODED WETLANDS 2347.5 0.0 0.0 DISTURBED TIDAL WETLANDS 3.5 0.0 0.0 DISTURBED WETLANDS (MODIFIED) 37.1 0.0 0.0 DREDGED LAGOON 1.1 0.0 0.0 EXPOSED FLATS 0.4 0.0 0.0 HERBACEOUS WETLANDS 161.7 0.0 0.0 INDUSTRIAL 5117.5 3556.9 0.7 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPLEXES 8.2 7.8 0.9 MAJOR ROADWAY 1474.8 1302.1 0.9 MANAGED WETLAND IN BUILT-UP MAINTAINED REC AREA 101.4 2.1 0.0 MANAGED WETLAND IN MAINTAINED LAWN GREENSPACE 40.9 0.9 0.0 MILITARY INSTALLATIONS 11.2 6.4 0.6 MIXED DECIDUOUS/CONIFEROUS BRUSH/SHRUBLAND 89.8 0.8 0.0 MIXED FOREST (>50% CONIFEROUS WITH >50% CROWN CLOSURE) 24.8 0.0 0.0 MIXED FOREST (>50% CONIFEROUS WITH 10-50% CROWN 3.9 0.2 0.1 CLOSURE) MIXED FOREST (>50% DECIDUOUS WITH >50% CROWN CLOSURE) 33.1 0.0 0.0 MIXED FOREST (>50% DECIDUOUS WITH 10-50% CROWN CLOSURE) 31.6 0.3 0.0 MIXED RESIDENTIAL 3.4 2.0 0.6

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Impervious Impervious Land Use Type Acreage Cover % MIXED SCRUB/SHRUB WETLANDS (CONIFEROUS DOM.) 7.9 0.0 0.0 MIXED SCRUB/SHRUB WETLANDS (DECIDUOUS DOM.) 14.4 0.0 0.0 MIXED TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR OVERLAP AREA 3.7 1.2 0.3 MIXED URBAN OR BUILT-UP LAND 162.1 116.8 0.7 NATURAL LAKES 51.7 0.0 0.0 OLD FIELD (< 25% BRUSH COVERED) 253.9 1.9 0.0 ORCHARDS/VINEYARDS/NURSERIES/HORTICULTURAL AREAS 26.9 8.3 0.3 OTHER AGRICULTURE 36.5 3.4 0.1 OTHER URBAN OR BUILT-UP LAND 1891.5 177.3 0.1 PHRAGMITES DOMINATE COASTAL WETLANDS 58.9 0.0 0.0 PHRAGMITES DOMINATE INTERIOR WETLANDS 124.8 0.0 0.0 PHRAGMITES DOMINATE OLD FIELD 71.5 0.1 0.0 PHRAGMITES DOMINATE URBAN AREA 13.9 0.0 0.0 RAILROADS 850.9 167.1 0.2 RECREATIONAL LAND 3040.8 328.7 0.1 RESIDENTIAL, HIGH DENSITY OR MULTIPLE DWELLING 11243.3 5337.3 0.5 RESIDENTIAL, RURAL, SINGLE UNIT 1170.8 176.9 0.2 RESIDENTIAL, SINGLE UNIT, LOW DENSITY 2737.2 642.8 0.2 RESIDENTIAL, SINGLE UNIT, MEDIUM DENSITY 22330.0 7415.9 0.3 SALINE MARSH (HIGH MARSH) 19.3 0.0 0.0 SALINE MARSH (LOW MARSH) 230.2 0.0 0.0 STADIUM, THEATERS, CULTURAL CENTERS AND ZOOS 13.1 10.6 0.8 STORMWATER BASIN 153.0 10.1 0.1 STREAMS AND CANALS 362.3 0.0 0.0 TIDAL MUD FLAT 9.7 0.0 0.0 TIDAL RIVERS, INLAND BAYS, AND OTHER TIDAL WATERS 6739.2 0.0 0.0 TRANSITIONAL AREAS 353.6 68.0 0.2 TRANSPORTATION/COMMUNICATION/UTILITIES 2721.8 2451.9 0.9 UPLAND RIGHTS-OF-WAY DEVELOPED 57.5 3.2 0.1 UPLAND RIGHTS-OF-WAY UNDEVELOPED 92.9 0.2 0.0 WETLAND RIGHTS-OF-WAY 39.6 0.0 0.0 Source: NJDEP 2012 Land Use / Land Cover Updated

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5 Risk Assessment

This Section addresses the Risk Assessment portion of the Plan, which has been performed in a manner consistent with the process and steps presented in FEMA 386-2, State and Local Mitigation Planning How- to-Guide, Understanding Your Risks – Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (FEMA 2001). This section is intended to meet FEMA requirements outlined in CFR Part 201.6(c)(2)(i). The following steps are used when assessing hazard risk:

§ Step 1 → Identify Hazards

§ Step 2 → Profile and Rank Hazards

§ Step 3: → Inventory Assets

§ Step 4 → Estimate Losses

§ FINAL→ Risk Assessment Outputs Inputs for Hazard Mitigation Strategy

The Risk Assessment process includes both hazard identification and hazard profiling/ranking and ultimately considers the assets that are at risk in the community and what assets could be damaged or lost due to the occurrence of a hazard event. This analysis allows a jurisdiction, in this case the City of Elizabeth, to make informed decisions related to hazard assessment as well as to develop an appropriate mitigation strategy. Section 5.1 provides a general overview of identified hazards including a description of destructive characteristics as well as the location and extent of hazard events.

· FEMA How-To-Guides Collection (https://www.fema.gov/vi/media-library/collections/6)

· FEMA website for New Jersey Hazards (https://www.fema.gov/states/new-jersey)

· New Jersey Office of Emergency Management. January 2019. “State of New Jersey 2019 State Hazard Mitigation Plan” (http://ready.nj.gov/mitigation/2019-mitigation- plan.shtml)

· Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 2012. “What is Risk MAP?” (https://www.fema.gov/es/media-library/resources-documents/collections/18)

· “Understanding the Best Available Flood Hazard Data for Your Community.” FEMA Region II Coastal Analysis and Mapping” http://www.region2coastal.com/

In addition to the above listed sources, the Elizabeth’s Emergency Operations Plan was consulted as part of the hazard identification process. Further, the Planning Committee reviewed a preliminary hazards

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inventory to ensure that the planning process, considered a full set of hazards. As appropriate, Section 5.1 comments upon past occurrences of identified hazards in the City as well as the likelihood of future occurrences.

The information presented in Section 5.1 was utilized to identify those hazards, which were considered priority for Elizabeth. Section 5.2, Hazard Analysis, presents the methodology utilized to profile and rank of the identified hazards with respect to Elizabeth and the findings of the overall analysis.

5.1 Hazard Identification

The City of Elizabeth is vulnerable to a wide array of natural hazards that threaten life and property. These FEMA listed natural hazards include those that are bolded indicating natural hazards are the most prevalent to occur in Elizabeth:

§ Coastal Erosion § Ice Jams § Coastal § Mosquito-Borne Disease § Storm/Nor’easter/Hurricane, § Severe Winter Storm § Drought § Thunderstorms § Earthquake § Tornado § Extreme Heat § Wildfire § Extreme Cold § Wind § Flood § Hailstorm

Some hazards are interconnected (i.e., hurricanes can cause flooding and wind), and some contain elements that are not listed separately (i.e., severe thunderstorms can cause lightning; tropical storms can cause coastal erosion). Some hazards, such as a thunderstorm, may impact a large area without causing much damage, but other hazards, such as a tornado, may impact only a small area but cause extensive damage in that area. This section provides a general description of the hazards listed above, including a discussion of their destructive characteristics.

Many different sources of information were used to assemble these descriptions. When pertinent, statistics from past events were used to illustrate actual effects from a variety of these phenomena. Such statistics are usually available on a national or state level, but seldom on the local level. Tables 5-1 identifies New Jersey’s storms and disaster history with other incidents being officially declared a State disaster or emergency.

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Table 5-1 - New Jersey Storm and Disaster History Source: FEMA and Wikipedia

Disaster Year Date Emergency or Disaster Type Number(s) 2019 08/07 EF-0 Tornado in Springfield, NJ 2019 7/17-18 Remnants of Hurricane Barry (Storm/Wind) 2018 10/11-12 Remnants of Hurricane Michael (Flooding) 2018 9/17 Remnants of Hurricane Florence (Flooding) Remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon (Two 2018 9/8-10 EF-0 Tornados) 2018 03/06 NJ Severe Winter Storm 4368 2017 10/29 Remnants of post-Tropical Storm Phillippe Remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy 2017 06/24 (Flooding) NJ Severe Winter Storm Jonas (~28” in 2016 01/22-24 NYC) 4264 2015 03/06-07 NJ Severe Winter Storm 4231 2015 01/26 NJ Severe Winter Storm Juno Near miss 10/26- 2012 11/08 Super Storm Sandy 3354/4086 2012 06/30 Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds 4070 2011 11/30 Severe Storm 2011 10/14 Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee 4048 2011 9/15 Severe Storms and Flooding 4039 08/27- 2011 09/05 Hurricane Irene 3332/4021 2010 12/26-27 Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm 1954 2010 03/12-15 Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm 1897 2010 02/05 Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm 1889 Severe Storms and Flooding associated with 2009 12/22 Tropical Depression Ida and a Nor’easter 1873 2007 5/16 Warren Grove Firs 2695 Severe Storms and Inland and Coastal 2007 04/26 Flooding 1867 2006 07/07 Severe Storms and Flooding 1694 2005 09/19 Hurricane Katrina Evacuation 3257 2005 04/19 Severe Storms and Flooding 1653 2004 10/01 Tropical Depression Ivan 1588 2004 07/16 Severe Storms and Flooding 1563 Hurricane Isabel (low damage of ~50 million 2003 09/17-18 dollars.

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Disaster Year Date Emergency or Disaster Type Number(s) Northeast Wide-Area Power Outages (55 Million people impacted and 14 days to 2003 08/14-28 restore all power) 3188 2003 03/20 Severe Snowstorm 3181 2003 02/17 Worst recorded snowstorm before Jonas 2002 06/02 Double Trouble Fire near Parkway (1000ac) 2411 2000 08/17 Severe Storms, Flooding and Mudslides 1530 1999 09/18 Hurricane Floyd 3147/3148 1998 03/03 Coastal Storm 1295 1997 09/23 Flooding 1206 1996 11/19 Severe Storms/Flooding 1189 1996 01/13 Severe Blizzard 1145 1993 03/17 Severe Blizzard 3106 Coastal Storm, High Tides, Heavy Rain, 1992 12/18 Flooding 1088 1992 03/03 Severe Coastal Storm 973 1985 10/15 Hurricane Gloria 936 1984 04/12 Coastal Storms, Flooding 749 1980 10/19 NJ Water Shortage 3083 1977 02/08 Ice Conditions 528 1977 08/21 Severe Storms, High Winds, Flooding 519 1975 07/22 Heavy Rains, High Winds, Hail, Tornadoes 477 1974 12/24 Severe Storms, High Winds & High Tides 3005 1973 08/06 Severe Storms, Flooding 402 1968 06/18 Heavy Rains, Flooding 310 1965 08/18 Water Shortage 245 1962 03/09 Severe Storms, High Tides, Flooding 205 1955 08/20 Hurricane, Floods 124

Data Sources · American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), “Windstorm Impact Mitigation” Web site: https://www.asce.org/issues-and-advocacy/public-policy/policy-statement- 530---windstorm-impact-mitigation/ · Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Web site: https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/imt/ · National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ · North American Drought Portal (and Drought Monitor)

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Web site: https://www.drought.gov/nadm/content/overview · National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) · Web site: https://www.drought.gov/drought/ · National Interagency Fire Center · Web site: https://www.nifc.gov/ and https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm · Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site: https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/ · National Weather Service (NWS), U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site: https://www.weather.gov/ · Storm Prediction Center (SPC), U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service Web site: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ · The Tornado Project, St. Johnsbury, Vermont Web site: http://www.tornadoproject.com/ · United States Department of Energy (DOE) Web site: https://www.energy.gov/ United States Geological Survey (USGS), Earthquake Hazard Program Web site: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/ and https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ · United States Army Corps of Engineers Web site: https://www.usace.army.mil/ and https://www.usace.army.mil/National-Levee-Safety/About-Levees/Levees-and- Communities/ · The Disaster Center New Jersey · Web sites: http://disastercenter.com/newjrsy/newjersy.htm and http://www.avalanche.org/~nac/

5.2 Natural Hazards

A natural hazard is an unexpected or uncontrollable natural event of unusual magnitude that threatens the daily activities of people and people themselves. A natural disaster is a hazard event that actually resulted in widespread destruction of property and/or causes injury and/or death. Natural hazards are usually classified based on where they occur on the Earth as compared to atmospheric hazards are most often weather-related events. However, it is important to understand that atmospheric hazards can trigger geologic hazards (such as a thunderstorm producing flooding), and geologic hazards can trigger atmospheric hazards (such as a volcanic eruption producing thunderstorms). For the purpose of this Plan, a natural hazard is defined as natural events that threaten lives, property, and other assets. This Section of the Plan will discuss the natural hazards identified earlier in this Section as well as a discussion of the hazards probable impact to the City.

5.2.1 Coastal Erosion

Coastal Erosion is the gradual breakdown and removal of land material into a sea or lake due to natural processes such as wind, wave and tide action, with contributions from man-made interferences. Coastal erosion can be thought of as taking place at two different rates: gradual erosion which occurs on a daily basis along all coastlines; and sudden or catastrophic events, primarily due to storms, which can result in changes to coasts over very short time periods. The former mechanisms are fairly steady state, but the latter mechanisms are sporadic and not as predictable.

There are numerous natural factors that influence the coastline. Constant wave action, ocean currents, daily tides, and wind are the primary energy sources for erosion. Sources of sand, which can range in size

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from very fine sand to small pebbles, include continental shelf deposits, rivers, eroding cliffs, sand dunes, and other beaches that are losing sand due to the action of long shore currents. Sinks that accept the removed sand include continental shelf deposits and deep ocean canyons. If these deposits are below depths of approximately 45 feet they will be too deep to be lifted by wave action and re-deposited on the land. The geologic characteristics of the shore will also affect erosion rates. For instance, a resistant rock type will erode more slowly than a sedimentary shoreline. There is typically movement of sand between three areas: the beach, inland sand dunes, and offshore sand bars. Transfer of sand between these areas does not represent sand loss, but can affect the shape of the coastline. The offshore bathymetry of the sea bottom also has an effect on coastal erosion. In shallow water, waves will have less energy when they hit the shore, but deep water close to shore allows strong waves to strike the coast with more energy, causing more erosion.

The construction of artificial structures by humans, such as piers and jetties, as well as activities like beach sand mining, dredging, and the damming of rivers are all factors in coastal erosion. Groins and breakwaters serve to build up beachfront land in isolated areas, but at the expense of other areas that then face greater erosional rates.

Elizabeth has a limited coastline along the Arthur Kill and Newark Bay. This area has mostly been developed and reinforced with bulkheads, revetments and other structural walls to prevent erosion. However, since this coastal area does experience tidal influence, coastal erosion is regarded as a potential hazard for Elizabeth.

5.2.2 Coastal Storm/Nor’easter/Hurricane

Hurricanes, tropical storms, nor’easters and typhoons, are all different varieties of a cyclone, which is the generic term for a low-pressure system that generally forms in the tropics, and features closed circulation. A typical cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms, and in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise rotation of winds near the earth’s surface, around the low-pressure core.

Storms develop as a “Tropical Depression”, which is a system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less. If sustained storm winds increase to 39 to 73 mph (34-63 knots), the system is designated as a “Tropical Storm”, given a name by the National Weather Service, and is closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Once sustained winds reach or exceed 74 miles per hour, the storm is classified as a “Hurricane.” In the western Pacific, hurricanes are called "typhoons," and similar storms in the Indian Ocean are called "cyclones."

All Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas are subject to hurricanes and tropical storms. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June to November, with the peak season from mid-August to late October. On average, approximately six (6) storms reach hurricane intensity per year.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures The Saffir- Simpson Scale is shown in Table 5-2, below.

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Table 5-2 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Source: NOAA – National Hurricane Center

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Scale Sustained Number Winds Damage Storm Surge (Category) (MPH)

Minor: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap, and 1 74-95 shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive 4-5 feet damage to power lines and pole likely will result in power outages that could last a few days to several days.

Extensive: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or 2 96-110 6-8 feet uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks

Devastating: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or 3 111-1129 9-12 feet uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

Catastrophic: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or up rooted, and power 4 131-156 13-18 feet poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Catastrophic: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles 5 More than 157 Greater than 18 feet will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage up to several hundred miles inland from the coastline. There are three major mechanisms by which hurricanes can cause damage: storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains/floods.

One major cause of hurricane damage, particularly along the coastline, is storm surge. Storm surge occurs when sea level rises locally due to the low pressure, high winds, and high waves associated with a hurricane

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as it makes landfall. Storm Surge can vary from 4 feet in a Class 1 hurricane, to over 18 feet in a class 5 hurricane. The bulge of water in a storm surge can be between 50 to 150 miles wide. These temporary increases in sea level can cause catastrophic flooding. Coastal towns adjacent to large bays or areas with shallow water are especially susceptible to damage by the storm surge. A phenomenon known as “Storm Tide” can act in concert with, and worsen storm surge. Storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal astronomical tide. Areas that might not otherwise flood due to storm surge at low tide may flood during a storm tide combination of high tide plus storm surge.

Hurricane-force winds, which can exceed 155 miles per hour, can destroy poorly constructed buildings. Loose debris, such as outdoor furniture, and any other small items left outside, can become missiles in hurricanes. High winds can uproot trees, knock over traffic signals and street lights, pluck signs out of the ground, peel off roofing and siding material, any of which in turn can also become airborne missiles. Tornadoes and microbursts can be caused by hurricanes and tropical storms, although the localized destruction caused by these features can be overwritten by the overall damage caused by the main storm.

Heavy rainfall causes both flash and long term flooding. Hurricanes and tropical storms can deluge an area with several feet of rain in a period of days. This can cause severe inland flooding from runoff, endangering residents who believe they are safe because they do not live near the coast. Although hurricanes begin to deteriorate and degrade in strength after making landfall, they can still produce a lot of rainfall. Even storms as weak as a tropical depression is still a very strong storm when compared to average thunderstorms. Flooding, through either storm surge or caused by excessive rainfall, has been the number one cause of death from hurricanes in the United States.

Similar to hurricanes, nor’easters are ocean storms that form as extra-tropical cyclones off the North American coast. When the low-pressure core remains off-shore the winds affecting the land come from the northeast. Nor'easters are named for these winds.

Nor’easters can cause substantial damage to coastal areas in the Eastern United States due to their strong winds and heavy surf. These storms tend to track up the East Coast along the warm water of the Gulf Stream, which lies off the Atlantic coast. Nor’easters generally occur during the fall and winter months when both sufficient moisture and cold air are present in the atmosphere. Nor’easters are known for creating high surf that can cause severe coastal flooding and erosion, and for dumping heavy amounts of rain and snow, while sometimes producing hurricane-force winds. Due to the location of Elizabeth, coastal storms, nor’easters and hurricanes are potential hazards and technical information documents the historical occurrences of these types of hazard events in the region, which includes Elizabeth. Significant hurricanes to impact Elizabeth were Hurricane Floyd in September 1999, Hurricane Irene August 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. An April 2007 nor’easter also caused significant damage to locations within twelve counties in Northeast New Jersey including the City of Elizabeth and all twelve counties received a Presidential Disaster Declaration. Given the history of impact by these three types of storms on the City, coastal storms, nor’easters and hurricanes are a potential hazard for Elizabeth.

5.2.3 Drought

Drought is a natural climatic condition resulting from an extended period of below normal precipitation caused by variations in local or regional weather patterns. Weather patterns can be altered for varying lengths of time by factors such as changes in ocean temperatures and currents, changes in local or regional wind patterns, and abnormal temperatures due to solar variation.

Extreme climate conditions (high wind, high temperature, low humidity, etc.) as well as increased human demands and actions can worsen drought conditions, and can make areas more susceptible to the negative impacts of the precipitation deficiency.

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Droughts are classified into four major categories: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, or socioeconomic. · Meteorological droughts are defined by the level of “dryness” when compared to an average, or normal amount of precipitation over a given period of time. · Agricultural droughts are based on specific agricultural-related impacts. Emphasis tends to be placed on factors such as soil water deficits, water needs based on differing stages of crop development, and water reservoir levels. · Hydrological drought is due to precipitation shortfalls on surface and groundwater supplies. Changes in land use, and other human factors, can alter the hydrologic characteristics of a basin.

· Socioeconomic drought is the result of water shortages that limit the ability to supply water-dependent products in the marketplace.

Specific probabilities of future drought occurrences have not been developed. Droughts can occur within the City, at any time of the year, depending upon temperature and precipitation over time. Humid environments tend to be more susceptible to short-term droughts. The severity of the drought depends upon the degree of moisture deficiency, the duration, and the size of the affected area.

Meteorologists determine the onset and the end of a drought by carefully monitoring meteorological and hydrological variables such as precipitation patterns, soil moisture, and stream flow. To do this, meteorologists make use of various indices that show deficits in precipitation over periods of time.

Periods of drought can have significant environmental, economic and social consequences. The most common consequences are: · Water supply shortage · Wildfire · Desertification · Loss of agricultural production · Plant and animal mortality · Disease/negative human health effects · Social Unrest · Migration of affected human populations · Increased competition for natural resources

The effect varies according to vulnerability. For example, subsistence farmers are more likely to migrate during drought because they don't have alternative food sources. Areas with populations that depend on subsistence farming as a major food source are more vulnerable to drought-triggered famine. Drought can also diminish water quality, because lower water flows reduce dilution of pollutants.

According the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist website, Northern New Jersey (including Elizabeth) receives 46.24 inches of precipitation annually.

As droughts in northern New Jersey are generally short in duration, it is unlikely that the City will experience desertification, widespread disease, social unrest, human population migration, or increased competition for natural resources in the foreseeable future. As such, drought is not identified as a significant potential hazard for the City. It is, however, reasonable to expect an increased risk of wildfire, water supply shortages that result in restrictions on certain types of water usage (i.e. bans on watering lawns and washing cars), loss of limited agricultural production, and some plant and animal mortality due to typical northern New Jersey drought conditions.

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5.2.4 Earthquakes

An earthquake is the sudden motion or trembling of the earth caused by a sudden release of accumulated strain within the earth’s crust. In New Jersey, earthquakes usually occur when strain is released by the sudden displacement of rock along a fault. An earthquake’s “epicenter” is the point on the Earth’s surface that is directly above the point where the earthquake originates. Depending on geologic conditions and the amount of energy released, earthquakes can be felt, and cause damage, quite far from their epicenters. However, earthquakes have occurred in New Jersey, mostly on a small scale and a few New Jersey earthquakes, and several that originated outside the state, have produced minor damage within New Jersey.

The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) developed five soil classifications defined by their shear-wave velocity that impact the severity of an earthquake. The soil classification system ranges from A to E, where A represents hard rock that reduces ground motions from an earthquake and E represents soft soils that amplify and magnify ground shaking and increase building damage and losses. Figure 5-1 below indicates Soil Class E – soft soil predominantly found along the coastal area of the City. Class E soft soil has the highest risk of liquefaction hazard in New Jersey and subject to the greatest damage from a severe earthquake.

Figure 5-1 Soil Class and High Liquefaction Areas of New Jersey

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An earthquake's strength is expressed as “magnitude”. An instrument called a seismograph is used to determine magnitude. The most widely known magnitude scale is the Richter Scale, designed by C.F. Richter in 1935 for west coast earthquakes. Magnitude increases of 1 represent a 10-fold increase in amplitude of the seismic wave; this corresponds to a 32-fold increase in energy.

An earthquake's “intensity” describes effects at a particular place on the Earth's surface. Intensity is dependent upon an earthquake's magnitude, its distance from the epicenter, and local geology. Intensity scales are based on reports of people experiencing felt movements, sounds, and visible effects on structures and landscapes. The most commonly used scale in the United States is the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale (MMI) as presented in Table 5-3 below. Values on the MMI scale are usually reported in Roman numerals to distinguish them from magnitudes.

Table 5-3 Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale Source: NJ Geological Survey

Mercalli Equivalent Effects Intensity Magnitude2 Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable I. Instrumental 1.9 circumstances. Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of II. Just perceptible 2.5 buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing. Felt quite noticeably indoors, especially on upper floors of building but many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing III. Slight 3.1 motorcars may rock slightly. Vibration like passing of truck. Duration estimated. During the day, felt indoors by many, outdoors by few. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make creaking IV. Perceptible 3.7 sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motorcars rocked noticeably. Felt by nearly everyone, many awakened. Some dishes, windows, etc., broken; a few instances of cracked plaster; unstable objects V. Rather strong 4.3 overturned. Disturbances of trees, poles, and other tall objects sometimes noticed. Pendulum clocks may stop. Felt by all, many frightened and run outdoors. Some heavy furniture VI. Strong 4.9 moved; a few instances of fallen plaster or damaged chimneys. Damage slight. Everybody runs outdoors. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary VII. Very strong 5.5 structures; considerable in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by persons driving motorcars. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings, with partial collapse; great in poorly built structures. Panel walls thrown out of frame structures. Fall of VIII. Destructive 6.1 chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned. Sand and mud ejected in small amounts. Changes in well water. Persons driving motorcars disturbed. Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures thrown out of plumb; great in substantial buildings, IX. Ruinous 6.7 with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations. Ground cracked conspicuously. Underground pipes broken. Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundations; ground badly cracked. X. Disastrous 7.3 Rails bent. Landslides considerable from riverbanks and steep slopes. Shifted sand and mud. Water splashed (slopped) over banks.

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Mercalli Equivalent Effects Intensity Magnitude2 Few, if any, (masonry) structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. XI. Very disastrous 7.9 Broad fissures in ground. Underground pipelines completely out of service. Earth slumps and land slips in soft ground. Rails bent greatly. Damage total. Waves seen on ground surfaces. Lines of sight and XII. Catastrophic 8.5 level distorted. Objects thrown upward into air. 1. Abridged (Wood and Neumann, 1931). Wording is that of Wood and Neumann. Effects on cars, trucks and buildings built according to modern standards may be different. 2. Magnitude values were estimated using the formula: magnitude = 1.3 + (0.6 maximum intensity).

Despite the low likelihood of an earthquake occurring in New Jersey, the US Geological Survey earthquake hazard maps show that northern New Jersey communities should identify earthquakes as a potential hazard. The USGS in 2015 indicated that

The map shows peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of being exceeded over 50 years of 5- 6%g for northern NJ. According to FEMA How-To Guidance, Understanding Your Risks, FEMA 386-2 earthquakes should be identified as a hazard if the pga is greater than 2%g. Figure 5-2 represents pga for New Jersey and New York. The City of Elizabeth is identified as being situated in a 5%g area. Given Elizabeth’s location within the 5%g area, earthquakes are considered a potential hazard for the City.

Figure 5-2 Peak Ground Acceleration Map for New Jersey and New York Source: US Geological Survey

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There have been no recorded earthquake related deaths in New Jersey. Damage in New Jersey from earthquakes has been minor, with the most severe damage reported being fallen chimneys, articles falling from shelves and buildings being rocked. Table 5-4 below represents information pertaining only to damaging earthquakes felt in New Jersey from 1737 to present day.

Table 5-4 Damaging Earthquakes Felt in New Jersey Source: NJ Geological Survey

Intensity Magnitude Location Year (Mercalli) Comments (Richter) Max. / in NJ

Not Chimneys down in New York City. Felt in Boston, New York City 1737 VII / VII Recorded Massachusetts and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Cape Ann, Chimneys and brick buildings down in Boston. Its Massachusetts 1755 6.0 VIII / IV tsunami grounded boats in the West Indies . West of New Felt from New Hampshire to Pennsylvania. 1783 5.3 VII / VII York City Four great earthquakes. Changed course of New Madrid, 1811- Mississippi River. Town of New Madrid 8.0-8.8 XII / IV-V Missouri 1812 destroyed. Loss of life low due to sparse settlement. Damage in Chicago. Toppled chimneys in New York City and New Jersey. Cracked masonry from Hartford, New York City 1884 5.5 VII / VII Connecticut to West Chester, Pennsylvania. Felt from Maine to Virginia, and eastern Ohio. Charleston, Sixty killed. Over 10,000 chimneys down. 1886 7.7 X / IV South Carolina Felt in the northeast and southwest from Maine to Virginia. Articles fell from shelves and building High Bridge, 9/1/ Unknown VI rocked in Hunterdon County, New Jersey. New Jersey 1895 Broken windows and overturned crockery reported in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. New Jersey Several chimneys down from Asbury Park to 1927 Unknown VII / VII Coast Long Branch. Cracked chimneys, windows and dishes broken, West-central 3/23/ and fallen pictures. Near the site of the 9/1/1895 Unknown VI New Jersey 1957 earthquake.

Review of the above table (Damaging Earthquakes Felt in New Jersey) reveals the time spans between the intensity VII (i.e., magnitude 5.5-6.0) earthquakes were 46, 101, and 43 years. As stated by the New Jersey Geological Survey, this data plus information from other smaller-intensity quakes, implies a return period of 100 years or less, and suggests New Jersey is overdue for a moderate earthquake. In 2015, the USGS said New Jersey is “overdue” for a moderate earthquake of 5.0 or greater (published on .app.com/story/ on August 8, 2015).

Most property damage and earthquake-related deaths are not caused directly by the shaking of an earthquake, but rather by the failure and collapse of structures due to ground shaking. Other damaging effects include landslides, and liquefaction of unconsolidated, saturated soils. Liquified soils exhibit fluid-

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like properties, and can flow, much like quicksand. Therefore, structures relying on liquefied soil for support can be damaged, shift, or collapse during an earthquake. In addition to destroying buildings, ground shaking, landslides, and liquefaction can disrupt utilities (i.e., gas, electric, phone, water), and the destruction of or impact to these assets can sometimes trigger fires.

The survival of a building in a strong earthquake can be correlated to the soundness of its construction. Newer buildings, built to higher construction standards, are more likely to withstand earthquakes. New Jersey's building codes include some provisions for earthquake-resistant design, but current codes do not include requirements for upgrading existing buildings. In particular, non-reinforced masonry structures appear to be most vulnerable to earthquake damage, and housing of this construction is common in New Jersey's crowded urban areas. According to the New Jersey Geological Survey, an earthquake the size of New York City's 1884 quake (magnitude 5.5) would cause severe property and asset damage and would likely include fatalities. There are many earthquakes in and around New Jersey that are not damaging to include the last earthquake with the epicenter in Clifton with a 3.0 magnitude earthquake 3 days prior on April 9 off the coast of Long Island. The last significant earthquake felt in New Jersey was on August 23, 2011, but that 5.8 magnitude earthquake originated in central Virginia. Many larger earthquakes have occurred in the northeast but not in or around the tri-state but many local minor earthquakes occur more often than people know. For example, November 4, 2019, 1.6 magnitude in Hillcrest, NY; June 1, 2019, 2.0 magnitude in Brigantine, NJ; April 12, 2019 1.8 magnitude in Clifton, NJ; June 21, 2018, 1.7 magnitude in Leisuretowne, NJ; May 25, 2018, 1.8 magnitude in Nanuet, NY; May 23, 2018, 1.8 magnitude in Rock Hill, NY; November 30, 2017, 4.1 magnitude in Dover DE; September 25, 2017, Morristown, NJ; and November 6, 2016, 2.0 magnitude in Atlantic Beach, off the coast of NY and NJ (all data from https://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/new-jersey/recent). In just about 3 years, there have been 9 earthquakes in or directly adjacent to New Jersey. Figure 5-3 below shows where most of the earthquakes are felt in NJ and Figure 5-4 shows the past recorded epicenters in New Jersey.

Figure 5-3 USGS Community Intensity Map in New Jersey Source: USGS New Jersey

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Figure 5-4 Earthquakes with Epicenters in New Jersey Source: DGS04-1 Earthquakes Epicentered In New Jersey

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5.2.5 Extreme Heat

According to the FEMA, “extreme heat” is defined as a period of abnormally high temperature (>10° F above average regional temperatures) that lasts for several weeks. Humid or muggy conditions occur when a "dome" of high pressure, humid air remains near the ground. The increased water vapor in the air traps solar radiation near the surface of the earth raising temperatures. Humidity prevents the evaporation of sweat and the associated cooling effects on the human body. In general, urban areas tend to suffer more from extreme heat due to the “urban heat island effect” in which heat stored in asphalt and concrete is slowly released after dark, resulting in higher nighttime temperatures. Additionally, air tends to stagnate more in urban areas as tall buildings can block wind.

The NOAA NWS Heat Index Program is used to alert the public of hazardous heat/humidity conditions. The “Heat Index” represents the cumulative effects of heat and humidity on the human body. Minor health effects associated with extreme heat (namely, fatigue) can begin with heat indices as low as 80 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit (that is, an air temperature as low as 80 degrees with a relative humidity of at least 40 percent).

The negative effects of extreme heat include but are not limited to:

· Heat-related illnesses such as sunburn, fatigue, and heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke;

· Health concerns created by stagnant atmospheric conditions trapping pollutants;

· Excessively dry and hot conditions can provoke dust storms resulting low visibility and respiratory problems;

· Power shortages/outages caused by increased energy demands;

· Increased demand on health care facilities by individuals suffering from various heat related health effects;

· Disruption of commerce as a result of increased energy demand;

· Disruption of municipal services (e.g. waste collection) as a result of decreased human productivity or increased energy demands; and,

· Damage to structures and infrastructure due to softening, (e.g. asphalt).

According to the National Weather Service (NWS) website, approximately 175 Americans die from extreme heat annually. Young children, elderly people, and those who are ill or overweight and people without access to air conditioning are more likely to become victims. People living in urban areas may be at a greater risk from the effects of a prolonged heat wave than people living in rural regions. Technical sources do not identify frequent occurrences of extreme heat in New Jersey. However, given the City’s geographic location and history of extensive heating events, extreme heat is considered a potential hazard to the City.

5.2.6 Extreme Cold

Prolonged periods of extremely cold weather can be caused by abnormal wind patterns that bring arctic air masses from northern latitudes, below normal humidity levels which allow solar radiation to escape from the atmosphere, and variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the Earth.

Generally, weather forecasts will provide advance notice of extreme cold events allowing individuals, governments, and industries to prepare for the onset of such temperatures. There are many potential effects of prolonged periods of cold weather. These effects include:

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· Human injury and death due to exposure (frostbite, hypothermia);

· Fire caused by an increased usage of space heaters and/or fireplaces;

· Carbon Monoxide poisoning caused by an increased usage of space heaters and/or fireplaces;

· Flooding due to ice jams in rivers;

· Crop damage if cold weather comes during local growing seasons;

· Loss of commerce caused by freezing of ports and rivers;

· Loss of commerce caused by failure of automobiles/buses to start;

· Potential for water lines and sewers of insufficient burial depth (i.e. above the frost-line) to become damaged due to freezing; and,

· Damage to structures and infrastructure due to brittleness.

Other meteorological conditions can exacerbate the effects of cold temperatures. High winds can increase risks for exposure, and allow fires caused by the use of heaters and fireplaces to spread more rapidly. Low humidity creates ideal conditions for fires to start. “Flash flooding” refers to a flood which occurs within six hours or less of the causative event. Flash floods are usually the product of heavy, localized precipitation falling in a short time period.

Floods are one of the most common hazards in the United States. Sharp increases in temperature or rainfall following extremely cold weather can cause snow to melt rapidly and flood areas upstream from ice jams.

In early 2015, from February 13 – 20, the average daily was 25.4 degrees and the low temperature was 1 degree. During the winter of 2015-2016, the average high temperature recorded at Newark Liberty International Airport between December 25 and January 2, 2016 was 22.6 degrees. The temperature did not get past 28 degrees since December 25th and the low temperature was 1 degree. Given this recent history of cold weather events, extreme cold is considered a potential hazard to the City.

5.2.7 Flood

On August 4, 2004, FEMA released a statement declaring that flooding is New Jersey’s #1 natural hazard. This statement holds true for the City of Elizabeth and is identified as a potential hazard for the City. According to NOAA, the term “flooding” is defined as “the inundation of a normally dry area caused by high flow, or overflow of water in an established watercourse, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch; or ponding of water at or near the point where the rain fell.” Commonly, the term flooding refers to a duration type event, with an onset that is greater than six hours from the start of rainfall. The National Weather Service provides property loss estimates and fatality statistics for flooding events. Their estimates show flood damage has increased in the United States during the last century. Besides precipitation and weather patterns, other characteristics such as river basin topography; recent soil moisture conditions; and the degree of vegetative land cover in the basin, can affect the severity of floods. Flooding can be common in urbanized areas where a high percentage of the ground is covered by impervious surfaces, which decreases the ability of the soil to absorb and retain surface water runoff. The problem is often exacerbated by development, which obstructs the natural flow of water. Fatalities due to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems. However, property damage and economic losses have risen due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

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It is normal and inevitable for lands adjacent to rivers, streams, and shorelines to experience periodic flooding as a natural occurrence. Floods are typically described in terms of their statistical frequency. The recurrence interval of flooding is defined as the average time interval, in years, that is expected between a flood event of a particular magnitude and an equal or larger flood. Larger, more severe floods are expected to occur less frequently.

Floodplains are designated by the frequency of the flood that is large enough to cover them: for example, a 10-year flood will define the 10-year floodplain, and the 100-year flood will define the 100-year floodplain. Flood frequencies are determined by graphically plotting the size of all known floods for an area and determining how often floods of a particular size occur. A 100-year flood is defined as having a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. A 50-year flood will have 2% chance of occurring in any given year. Because floodplains can be mapped, the limit of a 100-year flood is commonly used in the compilation of floodplain mitigation programs to identify areas where the risk of flooding is significant. Flood areas have been documented within the City of Elizabeth, and 100-year and 500-year flood zones are identified on mapping included in Section 1 of this Plan. Flooding is considered a hazard across the entire jurisdiction.

5.2.8 Hailstorms

Hail is a form of frozen precipitation consisting of balls or irregular lumps of ice (hailstones), typically from the size of a pea to a golf ball in diameter, though much larger hail has been reported from severe thunderstorms. Hail forms when updrafts in thunderstorms carry raindrops upward into extremely cold areas of the atmosphere where they freeze into ice.

Hail can fall from heights of 30,000 feet, and reach speeds of 120 miles per hour. Hailstorms can cause damage to human life, property (i.e., roofs, cars, landscaping), and crops. NOAA estimates that hail causes $1 billion in damage to crops and property each year in the United States. If severe enough, fallen hail can also temporarily disrupt transportation by icing roadways. Hailstorms are a potential hazard for the City but are not identified as a significant potential hazard.

As of Aigust 2019, there has been 3 hail storms within 10 miles of the City center. The largest hail was 1.75” two months ago.

5.2.9 Ice Jams

An ice jam is a formation of ice over a body of water that limits the flow of the water. The primary hazard associated with ice jams is flooding. Ice jam flooding typically originates when heavy rain, or warm temperatures, cause snow to melt rapidly, overflowing frozen rivers or lakes. When impacted by the rising water, the ice cover breaks into pieces of varying sizes. These pieces of ice, which can include large chunks, will float downstream and can pile up on obstructions, such as bridge abutments and dam spillways. This accumulation can directly cause flooding upstream, but can also affect the integrity of the structures, possibly inducing failure. Ice Jams are a potential hazard for the City but are not identified as a significant potential hazard.

5.2.10 Mosquito-Borne Disease and Ticks

Some diseases can be spread through the “bite” of a mosquito. Though strictly speaking, the bite is actually a piercing of the skin by a mosquito’s proboscis during feeding. Female mosquitoes require a blood enzyme to complete their egg production cycle. If a bite-victim's blood contains disease-causing organisms, the organisms can survive in the mosquito and could be injected into the next victim's bloodstream when the mosquito feeds again. Mosquitoes can spread disease from animal to animal, animal to man, and from person to person in this manner. Another type of blood-feeding arthropod, the tick, is also common in North America, and can spread disease in the same manner.

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The National Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lists six arthropod-borne viruses (a.k.a. “arboviruses”) found globally that are encephalitic. Of the several arboviral encephalitides that are known to occur in the United States, there are four that have been known to occur in New Jersey: West Nile Virus (WNV), Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE), St. Louis Encephalitis (SLE), and La Crosse (LAC) Encephalitis. After being bitten by an infected mosquito, symptoms of SLE may appear within 5 to 15 days. These symptoms include, but are not limited to, fever, headache, nausea, drowsiness, and brain inflammation. Most individuals infected with SLE virus recover quickly within several weeks. SLE has had 4,478 reported human cases in the United States, since 1964, with an average of 200 cases (Monmouth County, Mosquito Control Division, 2016) reported annually and the last major episode of SLE in the United States was in 1975 which was also the last year SLE was reported in New Jersey.

Human (non-infectious) disease outbreaks are primarily limited to effects on human health, and therefore, such an outbreak would not affect structures, utilities or infrastructure. However, an outbreak could cause economic losses associated with work absences or decreased in productivity; human losses due to fatality; adverse impacts on health care facilities and staff; and the fear and anxiety associated with a severe outbreak. Given this information, mosquito-borne disease presents a potential hazard for the City but is not a significant potential hazard.

The potential for mosquito or tick infection in Union County has surged in recent years, according to the state Department of Health (DOH). Of the 245 mosquito pools tested for West Nile in 2017, 100 tested positive for the disease, the third highest in New Jersey.

Lyme disease cases are also on the rise. In 2015, the most recent year study numbers available, Union County reported 107 cases, which came in at the 17th highest among New Jersey's 21 counties. Morris County had the most cases reported with 572. Many cases go unreported. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,432 case in New Jersey in 2006, and the cases have more than doubled since then as 5,091 cases were reported in 2017. Besides 4 very rare cases of tick disease in 2017, a rare and exotic East Asian tick that was found on a Hunterdon County farm late 2016 and had survived that winter. The tick has made its way into Union County and authorities confirmed in April 2018. While most diseases like Lyme are treatable, there have be two cases of Powassan virus reported in NJ and 75 cases nationwide over the last 10 years (CDC). It is not treatable.

5.2.11 Severe Winter Storms

There is some overlap between this particular hazard and several others being considered by this Plan, namely Extreme Cold, as well as Avalanche and Ice Jams. Severe winter storms can also combine the effects of hurricane-force winds, and coastal flooding while simultaneously paralyzing an entire region with heavy snow or ice accumulations. Winter storms can be large enough to affect several states, but may affect individual communities more than others. Winter storms may include snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a mix of precipitation types. Snow is white or translucent ice crystals that fall in soft, white flakes. NOAA classifies snowfalls as follows:

● Flurries - Light snow falling for short durations. No accumulation or light dusting is expected.

● Showers - Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time. Some accumulation is possible.

· Squalls - Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation may be significant. Snow squalls most frequently occur in the Great Lakes region.

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● Blowing Snow - Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility and causes significant drifting. Blowing snow may be snow that is falling and/or loose snow on the ground picked up by the wind.

● Blizzard - Winds over 35 mph with snow and blowing snow which reduces visibility to near zero.

5.2.12 Thunderstorms

A thunderstorm is a form of weather characterized by the presence of lightning and associated thunder. Thunderstorms are usually produced from a cumulonimbus cloud and typically produce heavy precipitation. Thunderstorms frequently produce strong winds, and can also spawn hail and tornadoes. Thunderstorms form when three ingredients are present: 1) significant atmospheric moisture, 2) a mass of warm unstable air, and 3) a source of energy to lift the warm, moist air mass rapidly upward. Lifting can be caused by the following: unequal warming of the Earth’s surface; orographic lifting due to a topographic obstruction, such as when an air mass is forced up the slope of a mountain range; and, mechanical lifting along a frontal zone.

The NWS identifies four main types of thunderstorms: single-cell, multi-cell, squall line and super-cell. The storm type depends on the instability and relative wind conditions at different layers of the atmosphere ("wind shear").

Single-cell storms form in unstable atmospheres with little or no wind shear. This means precipitation falls back down through the updraft that led to it, cooling it and eventually destroying the cell. Typically these storms are short lived, and last for less than an hour after becoming strong enough to produce lightning.

Multi-cell storms are groups of cells in different stages of development which have merged into a larger system. The cloud is divided into different updraft and downdraft sections, which are separated by a “gust front,” which is the leading edge of gusty surface winds from thunderstorm downdraft. The storm itself will have different portions sequentially going through the various thunderstorm stages. Sometimes immature cells develop along a flanking line that are formed as a linear arrangement of multi-cell storms, frequently with a gust front. They often arise from convective updrafts in or near mountain ranges and linear weather boundaries, such as strong cold fronts. Occasionally, squall lines are also formed near the outer rain band of tropical cyclones. The squall line is moved by its own outflow, which reinforces continuous development of updrafts along the leading edge. Squall lines tend to be hundreds of miles long, sometimes stretching across an entire region of the country, covering multiple states at a time.

Super-cell storms are large, quasi-steady-state storms which form when the wind speed and direction vary with height ("wind shear") separates downdrafts from updrafts (i.e., precipitation is not falling through the updraft) and contain a strong, rotating updraft. These storms normally have such powerful updrafts that the top of the cloud (or “anvil,” named for its flat-topped shape) can reach miles into the air and can be 15 miles wide. These storms produce destructive tornadoes, extremely large hailstones (4 inch diameter), winds in excess of 80 mph (130 km/h), and flash floods.

A severe thunderstorm is a generic term that is typically taken to mean a thunderstorm with damaging winds (58 mph or greater), ¾ inch or larger hail, or one which may generate funnel clouds or tornadoes. These storms may contain frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpours which can lead to localized flooding.

According to the NWS, approximately 25 million cloud-to-ground lightning strikes occur in the United States yearly. Nationally, lightning kills about 100s people each year making it the number two weather killer in the United States. According to NWS, 13 fatalities have already occurred in the US as of August 2019

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(https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-fatalities). Between 2006 and 2012, a total of 13 people lost their lives in NJ after being struck by lightning (NJ.com/news). Based on past meteorological history, a high potential exists for future damages caused by thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are a potential hazard to the City.

5.2.13 Tornados

The American Meteorological Society defines a tornado as a violently rotating column of air that has contact with the ground and is often visible as a funnel cloud. Its vortex rotates cyclonically with wind speeds ranging from as low as 40 mph to higher than 300 mph. Tornadoes are often generated by thunderstorms, but can also result from hurricanes and other coastal storms. Anytime cool, dry air overrides a layer of warm, moist air forces the warm air to rise rapidly, and can tornadoes can form. Tornado damage is a result of the high wind velocity and wind-blown debris. Lightning and large hail can accompany tornadoes. The Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale (or the "EF Scale"), described in Table 5-5 below, has become the commonly used scale for estimating wind speeds of tornadoes based upon the damage done to structures. The National Weather Service uses it in investigating tornadoes (all tornadoes are now assigned an EF scale number). Springfield NJ recently experienced a confirmed EF-0 tornado on August 7, 2017.

Table 5-5 Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale (Wind Estimates based on Wind Damage) Source: NOAA

Class Wind Speed Damage Indicator EF-0 65-85 mph Minor damage. Peels surface off some roofs; some damage to gutters or siding; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed over. Confirmed tornadoes with no reported damage (i.e., those that remain in open fields) are always rated EF0. EF-1 86-110 mph Moderate damage. Roofs severely stripped; mobile homes overturned or badly damaged; loss of exterior doors; windows and other glass broken. EF-2 111-135 mph Considerable damage. Roofs torn off from well-constructed houses; foundations of frame homes shifted; mobile homes completely destroyed; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles generated; cars lifted off ground. EF-3 136-165 mph Severe damage. Entire stories of well-constructed houses destroyed; severe damage to large buildings such as shopping malls; trains overturned; trees debarked; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown; structures with weak foundations are badly damaged. EF-4 166-200 mph Devastating damage. Well-constructed and whole frame house completely leveled; some frame homes may be swept away; cars and other large objects thrown and small missiles generated. EF-5 Over 200 mph Incredible damage.

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Strong-framed, well-built houses leveled off foundations and swept away; steel-reinforced concrete structures are critically damaged; tall buildings collapse or have severe structural deformations; cars, trucks, and trains can be thrown approximately 1 mile (1.6 km).

Tornado season is generally during the spring and early summer months of March through August, though tornadoes can occur at any time of year. Tornadoes can also occur at any time of day, but they tend to form mostly in the afternoons and evenings. The highest concentration of tornadoes in the United States occurs in the central plain states and southeastern states. The area commonly referred to as “Tornado Alley” is a north-south oriented zone in the Great Plains region of the United States and includes north Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.

Most tornadoes are only dozens of yards wide but can cause enormous damage even though they may only touchdown briefly. Highly destructive tornadoes may cause damage over a much wider area. Waterspouts are weak tornadoes that form over warm water. Waterspouts can move inland and become tornadoes that can cause damage and injury. Waterspouts have been reported off the New Jersey Coast, but they are most common along the Gulf Coast and southeastern states.

While the potential for future tornadoes exists in Union County and the City of Elizabeth, given past meteorological history the likelihood of a direct path of a tornado passing through the City in any given year is rather low, and the expected likelihood of future damages caused by this type of hazard is increasing Tornadoes are considered a potential hazard for the City but are not a significant potential hazard to the City.

5.2.14 Tsunami

A tsunami is a series of waves generated by an undersea disturbance, typically an earthquake, volcanic eruption, or landslide. Tsunamis have been historically referred to as “tidal waves” because they take on the characteristics of a violent onrushing tide as they approach the coast, rather than the typical wind- driven, crested, ocean waves. A tsunami, Japanese for "harbor wave," can reach dozens of feet high and essentially the same effect seen when a child jumps into a pool.

Tsunami event would be very rare but the City is a coastal environment. On June 13, 2013, a rare type of tsunami called a “meteotsunami” hit NJ coast, with Barnegat Light bearing the brunt of the wave (USA Today news).

5.2.15 Volcano

USGS defines a volcano as a vent in the Earth’s crust that emits molten rock and gas. Volcanoes erupt when pressure from gases and the molten rock at depth exceeds the downward pressure of the overlying rock. According to the Michigan Technological University website, there are two types of volcanic eruptions: effusive (e.g. Hawaii) and explosive (e.g. Mount St. Helens). The Union County area has experienced volcanic activity in the distant past. The Watchung Mountains are composed of 200 million year old volcanic lava rock. As indicated by the USGS, volcanic hazards and ash fall hazards (based on activity in the last 15,000 years) are clustered within the western portion of the United States. There are no active volcanoes and there is little or no evidence (earthquakes, hydrothermal activity, etc.) of future volcanic activity in the City of Elizabeth area. While some hazards of volcanism (ash fall, acid rain, tsunami, and climate change) can have wide reaching or even global effects, these hazards are likely to leave the City and New Jersey unaffected and are not considered to be a likely potential hazard.

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5.2.16 Wildfire

Wildfires – also known as forest fires- are uncontrolled fires that burn wild vegetation in predominantly undeveloped land. There are three classes of wildfires: surface fire, ground fire, and crown fire.

Surface fires are the most common of the three classes. These types of fires burn fuel along the surface of a forest floor. They tend to move slowly and can kill or damage larger trees. Ground fires (muck fire) can burn fuel on or below the forest floor. Crown fires can spread rapidly by wind and move quickly through the forest canopy.

Surface fires reduce low vegetation, moss, lichens and litter strata, which temporarily limits the chance of such fuels leading to more destructive crown fires. Ground fires reduce the accumulation of organic matter and carbon storage and can smolder long after surface fires have been extinguished. These fires can also kill or damage large trees by killing their root systems. Crown fires have the most devastating short-term and long-term ecological impacts and are more likely to threaten human settlements near wild land areas.

Wildfires are part of the natural management of the Earth’s ecosystems, but may also be caused by human factors. They are frequently started by lightning strikes, but human carelessness and arson are other common causes. Drought and the prevention of small forest fires are major contributors to extreme forest fires.

The negative effects of wildfires include, but are not limited to: · Injury or death for people trapped in its path;

· Destruction of private and public buildings, property, and infrastructure;

· Degradation of air quality due to air-born particulate matter; and,

· Increased human contact with wildlife (automobile collisions with deer, close encounters with black bears, etc.) due to destruction of habitat.

According to the NJDEP Division of Parks and Forestry, an average of 1,500 wildfires damage or destroy 7,000 acres of New Jersey's forests each year.

On March 30, 2019 a wildfire started in Penn State Forest in Woodland Township, NJ and engulfed approximately 11,638 acres, or more than 18 square miles, of a New Jersey forest before being contained on April 1st. Smoke and ashes filled the local area as far north as Holmdel and Monmouth County, which is at least 40 miles north from the fire in Burlington County. Minor smoke was reported as far north as Bergen and as far south as Atlantic counties.

With the exception of some limited park space, the City does not maintain any expansive wooded or forested areas. Given the lack of forested areas within or adjacent to the City, the likelihood of wildfire occurrences is low and is not considered to be a potential hazard, but smoke and ashes may become evident from fires occurring in other counties.

5.2.17 Wind Windstorms are among the most devastating natural hazards. The damage, destruction, and business interruption caused by thunderstorms, Nor’easters, hurricanes and tornadoes cost several billion dollars each year. Wind can be associated with any storm during any month of the year. As urban growth continues and people move near coastal areas, the trend towards larger impacts and increasing costs will continue unless an effective wind hazard reduction plan is implemented and funded.

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In 2004 Congress authorized Public Law 108-360 creating the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program, and the program was reauthorized in 2016. The program coordinates windstorm related research activities at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Science Foundation, National Institute of Standards and Technology and Federal Emergency Management Agency (ASCE Policy Statement 530 - https://www.asce.org/issues-and-advocacy/public-policy/policy-statement-530--- windstorm-impact-mitigation/)

Local programs and funding should be targeted to achieve or improve the following goals:

· Reduce losses from windstorms, thereby increasing the resiliency of communities; · Develop affordable designs to provide enhanced windstorm protection; · Develop cost-effective retrofit schemes with existing construction to improve individual and community resilience; · Implement innovative codes and standards that provide for wind-resistant construction and programs for assuring increased compliance; · Develop new materials and innovative design concepts and emergency response approaches to minimize electrical power loss as a result of windstorms; · Improve regional risk assessments, especially involving multiple hazards, lifeline interdependencies, and ripple effects; · Collect and archive wind and national infrastructure data; · Develop improved hazardous weather warnings with longer lead-time, fewer false alarms, and more accurate prediction of affected areas; · Develop new materials and innovative design concepts and emergency response approaches to minimize electrical power loss as a result of windstorms; · Conduct public education on wind hazards and methods for hazard reduction; and · Train the next generation of technical experts and enhance the knowledge of design and construction professionals.

Recommended Book from the American Society of Civil Engineer:

Wind Engineering for Natural Hazards: Modeling, Simulation, and Mitigation of Windstorm Impact on Critical Infrastructure - Edited by Aly Mousaad Aly, Ph.D., and Elena Dragomirescu, Ph.D. 2018 / 238 pp.

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6 Vulnerability Assessment

The purpose of the Vulnerability Assessment is to examine built environments, populations and economic sectors to identify elements which are susceptible to damage from natural hazards. This Section of the Plan presents the methodology and findings of the Vulnerability Assessment for the City and ultimately provides essential information regarded to prioritize mitigation actions and direct disaster response and mitigation planning. The Section is organized as follows: Section 6.1 provides the Overview of the Vulnerability Assessment; Section 6.2 provides the Methodology; Section 6.3 provides the Estimated Costs and Losses; Section 6.4 provides Land Use and Development Trends; Section 6.5 discusses Hazard Vulnerabilities; Section 6.6 provides Future Development in Hazard Areas; and Section 6.7 provides an overall Summary. Figures 1-4A and 1-4B included in Section 1 of this Plan, present land features, infrastructure, critical facilities, defined flood zones and other pertinent features for Elizabeth.

6.1 Overview As previously discussed in Section 5 – Risk Assessment, a series of natural hazards were addressed as potential occurrences within the City. The risk assessment process included both hazard identification and ranking with consideration of hazards and assets at risk due to a hazard event. As part of the Vulnerability Assessment, each City department ranked natural hazards and provided an assessment of the severity of impact. Hazards discussed in Section 5 were ranked based on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the most likely to impact the City. Impact assessment was based on a scale of High, Medium or Low with regard to an identified hazard occurrence. Table 6-1 presents the findings of the Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment as prepared by the City departments (Updated June 2018 through surveys).

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 47 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-1 Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment by Hazard

Coastal Storm/ Department Avalanche Coastal Erosion Nor’easter/ Drought Earthquake Expansive Soil Extreme Heat Hurricane Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Public Works & Engineering 1 Low 3 Medium 5 High 2 Low 1 Low 3 Medium 4 Medium Planning & Community Development 1 Low 3 Medium 5 High 2 Low 1 High 1 low 4 Medium Business Mediu Administration 1 Low 3 Medium 5 m 4 Low 1 Low 1 Low 4 High Fire Department 1 Low 2 High 3 High 5 High 4 High 1 Medium 5 High Police Department 0 Low 0 Low 5 High 0 Low 0 Low 0 Low 0 Low Health & Human Resources 1 Low 2 High 4 High 3 Medium 2 High 2 Medium 5 High Average Rank /Average Impact Medium Assessment 1 Low 2.17 Medium 4.5 High 2.67 Low 1.8 Medium 1.5 Medium 3.67 /High Notes for Table 6-1:

Rank: 1-5 with 5 being the most likely to impact a municipality. Zero means no data available or no response. If Impact listed two responses (i.e., low-medium) it was assumed to be the higher impact Impact: Low = <$500,000; Medium = $500,000-$1,000,000; High =>$1,000,000 Expansive soil: A fine-grained clay which occurs naturally and is generally found in areas that historically were a flood plain or lake area but can occur in hillside areas also. Expansive soil is subject to swelling and shrinkage of the soil, varying in proportion to the amount of moisture present in the soil. Ice jams: Ice jams occur when warm temperatures and heavy rain cause rapid snow melting. The melting snow combined with the heavy rain, causes frozen rivers to swell. The rising water breaks the ice layer into large chunks, which float downstream and often pile up near narrow passages or near obstructions, such as bridges and dams. (Northeast States Emergency Consortium, NESEC)

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 48 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-1 Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment by Hazard (continued)

Mosquito-borne Department Extreme Cold Flood Hailstorm Ice Jams Land Subsidence Illnesses Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Public Works and Engineering 4 Medium 5 High 2 Medium 2 Low 2 Low 3 Medium Planning & Community Development 4 Medium 4 Medium 2 Low 1 Low 1 Low 3 Medium Business Administration 4 High 5 High 3 Medium 1 Low 2 Low 4 Low Fire Department 4 High 5 High 4 Medium 2 Medium 2 Medium 3 Medium Police Department 1 Low 3 Medium 0 Low 0 Low 0 Low 0 Low Health & Human Services (no update in 2018) 5 Medium 1 Low 3 Medium 5 High 0 Low 3 Medium Average Rank / Average Impact Assessment 2.8 Medium 4.5 High 2.3 Medium 1.8 Low 1.2 Low 2.3 Medium

Notes for Table 6-1: Rank: 1-5 with 5 being the most likely to impact a municipality. Zero means no data available or no response. If Impact listed two responses (i.e., low-medium) it was assumed to be the higher impact Impact: Low = <$500,000; Medium = $500,000-$1,000,000; High =>$1,000,000 Expansive soil: A fine-grained clay which occurs naturally and is generally found in areas that historically were a flood plain or lake area but can occur in hillside areas also. Expansive soil is subject to swelling and shrinkage of the soil, varying in proportion to the amount of moisture present in the soil. Ice jams: Ice jams occur when warm temperatures and heavy rain cause rapid snow melting. The melting snow combined with the heavy rain, causes frozen rivers to swell. The rising water breaks the ice layer into large chunks, which float downstream and often pile up near narrow passages or near obstructions, such as bridges and dams. (Northeast States Emergency Consortium, NESEC).

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 49 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Table 6-1 Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment by Hazard (continued)

Severe Winter Department Thunderstorms Tornado Tsunami Volcano Wildfire Storm Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Rank Impact Public Works and Engineering 5 High 4 High 1 Low 1 Low 1 Low 1 Low Planning & Community Development 5 High 3 Medium 1 Low 1 Low 1 Low 1 Low Business Administration 5 High 5 Medium 2 Low 1 Low 1 Low 1 Medium Fire Department 5 High 5 Medium 1 Medium 1 Medium 1 Low 1 Low Police Department 3 Medium 4 Medium 0 Low 0 Low 0 Low 0 Low Health & Human Services (no update in 2018) 3 Medium 5 Medium 2 High 1 High 1 High 1 High Average Rank / Average Impact Assessment 4.33 High 4.33 Medium 1.16 Low 1 Low 1 Low 1 Low Notes for Table 6-1: Rank: 1-5 with 5 being the most likely to impact a municipality. Zero means no data available or no response. If Impact listed two responses (i.e., low-medium) it was assumed to be the higher impact Impact: Low = <$500,000; Medium = $500,000-$1,000,000; High =>$1,000,000 Expansive soil: A fine-grained clay which occurs naturally and is generally found in areas that historically were a flood plain or lake area but can occur in hillside areas also. Expansive soil is subject to swelling and shrinkage of the soil, varying in proportion to the amount of moisture present in the soil. Ice jams: Ice jams occur when warm temperatures and heavy rain cause rapid snow melting. The melting snow combined with the heavy rain, causes frozen rivers to swell. The rising water breaks the ice layer into large chunks, which float downstream and often pile up near narrow passages or near obstructions, such as bridges and dams. (Northeast States Emergency Consortium, NESEC)

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 50 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Based on the above survey and the recorded low potential of hazards occurrence attributed to the City’s geographic location, climatology, land form conditions, topographic features and/or other physical conditions/features, this section of the Plan only provides detailed vulnerability assessments for the following natural hazards (wind may be accounted for in some of the hazards):

Natural Hazards § Flooding; § Coastal Storm/Nor’Easter/Hurricane; § Thunderstorms; § Severe Winter Storm (includes extreme cold); and § Extreme Heat These hazards were chosen for detailed analysis due to the higher level of risk for these hazards when compared to other potential hazards in the City. The potential impact of these hazards was reviewed with respect to both existing and “planned (i.e., future development)” structures and infrastructure to the extent practical. The “planned” or future structures and infrastructure were identified/determined through Planning Committee discussions, as well as during individual meetings and calls between municipal representatives and Mott MacDonald. The loss estimates provided in this Section were developed using available data and the methodologies applied have resulted in an “approximation” of risk. These estimates should be used to understand relative risk from hazards and potential losses. However, it is important to understand that uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation methodology, arising in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning natural hazards and their effects in the built environment. This includes unforeseen circumstances that are the result of unpredictable climate and weather conditions, such as Superstorm Sandy in 2012, snow/ice storms between 2013 and 2014, extreme cold in late December 2015, and the wettest year in 2018 since 1895. Record rainfall in March 2018 included four nor'easters in three weeks and August storms caused flash flooding in New Jersey that famously swept dozens of cars from a dealership in Little Falls. There were more than 11 days with greater than 4” of rainfall and several rainstorms were near 6” and 7” in 24 hours. Record precipitation in 2018 exceed 64” per year.

Uncertainties also result from approximations and simplifications that are necessary for the comprehensive analysis such as abbreviated inventories, demographics or economic parameters. Further, the Planning Committee concluded that it was not possible to determine specific losses of structures for the following hazards since the likelihood of occurrence of these hazards are difficult to predict, tend to be uniformly distributed across the jurisdiction or impossible to geo-locate with any level of accuracy: thunderstorms, severe winter storms and extreme heat can cover the entire City. To the extent practical, the Planning Committee has attempted to provide qualitative loss information for the above listed hazards. It should be noted that New Jersey has a well-developed body of land use regulation which prohibits and/or limits development in designated floodplains, steep slopes, wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas. The primary purpose of the land use regulations is to preserve and minimize developmental impacts to natural resources. It is worth noting that the State of New Jersey has revised a substantial body of regulation relating to stormwater management and limited allowable development adjacent to certain waterways and in designated flood and wetland areas. These regulations further strengthen development controls and will assist with hazard mitigation by minimizing or eliminating future construction of structures in hazard prone areas. This does not account for developments that occurred prior to the implementation/updates of the regulations by the State of New Jersey.

6.2 Methodology

Mott MacDonald, in concert with the Elizabeth Planning Committee, further assessed risk utilizing two (2) methodologies: HAZUS-MH²® (FEMA’s Loss Estimation Software) and a statistical risk assessment methodology. Both approaches provide estimates for potential impact by using a systematic framework for evaluation. The HAZUS-MH risk assessment methodology is parametric, in that distinct hazard and inventor

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 51 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 parameters were modeled using the HAZUS-MH software to determine the impact (damages and losses) on the built environment. The HAZUS-MH software was used to estimate losses from wind (coastal storm /nor’easter/ hurricane, thunderstom and tornato) and flood hazards. The second methodology, a staticically- based risk assessment approach, was applied to analyze hazards that are outside the scope of the HAZUS- MH software. The HAZUS-driven methodology uses a statistical approach and mathematical modeling of risk to predict a hazards’s frequency of occurrence and estimated impacts based on recorded or historic damage information.

6.2.1 Explanation of HAZUS-MH Risk Assessment Methodology

HAZUS-MH is FEMA’s standardized loss estimation software program, built upon an integrated GIS platform. Hazus software is a powerful risk assessment methodology for analyzing potential losses from floods, hurricane and earthquakes. This risk assessment applied HAZUS-MH to produce regional profiles and estimate losses for hazards addressed in this Section of the Plan regarding flooding and high winds. Figure 6-1 presents the conceptual model of HAZUS-MH. Figure 6-1 Conceptual Model of HAZUS-MH Source: FEMA 433: Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment How-to Guide

6.2.2 Explanation of Statistical Risk Assessment Methodology

Risks associated with other natural hazards were analyzed using a statistical assessment methodology developed and used specifically for this effort. This approach is based on the same principals as HAZUS- MH, but does not rely on readily-available automated software. Rather, historical data for each hazard are used and statistical evaluations are performed using manual calculations. The general steps used in the statistical risk assessment methodology are summarized below: § Compile data from national and local sources;

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 52 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 § Conduct statistical analysis of data to relate historical patterns within data to existing hazard models (minimum, maximum, average, and standard deviation); § Categorize parameters for each hazard to be modeled; § Develop model parameters based on an analysis of data, existing hazard models, and risk engineering judgment; and § Apply hazard model using the following criteria: o Analysis of frequency of hazard occurrence o Analysis of intensity and damage parameters of hazard occurrence o Development of intensity and frequency tables and curves based on observed data o Development of simple damage functions to relate hazard intensity to a level of estimated damages (for example, one flood = $ in estimated damages) o Development of exceedance and frequency curves relating a level of damage for each hazard to an annual probability of occurrence o Development of loss estimate.

6.2.3 Limitations of HAZUS-MH Statistical Risk Assessment

The information gathered and provided by FEMA for the public use of the HAZUS-MH program was acquired from several sources including United States Census records as well as state, county and municipal inventories as available. Although some HAZUS inventory numbers may be inaccurate as of 2019, for the purpose of this Plan, the FEMA available updated data would be accurate for the reporting period. The HAZUS modeling interpretations is based on the knowledge of the data’s age at the time of the models’ conception. It should be noted that the HAZUS-MH program is capable of creating data specific models based on individual information provided by the user. This means that the City can run the model based on more accurate/site specific information and managed directly by an experienced HAZUS-MH program user. For example, HAZUS-MH can identify and quantify the number of facilities that may be damaged by a particular event (e.g., hurricane, high wind and/or flooding) but can not identify the specific building or facility. Additional discussion regarding this topic can be found in Sections 8-Mitigation Strategies and Section 9-Plan Maintenance.

6.3 Estimated Costs and Losses

The economic loss results are presented in this Section using two (2) interrelated risk indicators:

1) Annualized Loss (AL), which is the estimated long-term value of losses to the general building stock in any single year in a specified geographic area

2) Annualized Loss Ratio (ALR), which expresses estimated annualized loss as a fraction of the building inventory replacement value

The estimated AL addresses the two (2) key components of risk: the probability of the hazard occurring in the study area and the consequences of the hazard, largely a function of building construction type and quality, and of the intensity of the hazard event. By annualizing estimated losses, the AL factors in historic patterns of frequent smaller events with infrequent but larger events to provide a balanced assessment of risk. The ALR represents the AL as a fraction of the replacement value of the local building inventory. This ratio is calculated using the following formula:

“ALR = ANNUALIZED LOSSES / TOTAL EXPOSURE AT RISK”

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 53 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 The ALR gauges the relationship between average AL and building replacement value. This ratio can be used as a measure of relative risk between areas and, since it is normalized by replacement value, it can be directly compared across different geographic units such as metropolitan areas or counties. It is important to note that HAZUS –MH was used to produce “worst case scenario” results. The outputs in this document are considered to be the result of a worst-case scenario event for each hazard, and it is understood that any smaller events which could occur would most likely create fewer losses than those calculated for the purpose of this assessment. The use of the annualized losses approach has three (3) primary benefits: (1) the ability to assess potential losses from all future disasters, (2) results across different hazards are readily comparable and are, therefore, easier to rank, and (3) the annualized losses method provides an objective means to evaluate mitigation alternatives.

To help assess the significance of losses across the City, it is important to identify the areas of the City with higher populations which would receive elevated levels of loss due to their density.

Table 6-2 ans 6-3 below provide a breakdown of the estimated number of facilities and dollar exposure that formed the basis of the vulnerability and risk assessment presented in this Section. This information was derived from HAZUS-MH.

Table 6-2 City Population and Number of Buildings/Building Value Sources: HAZUS-MH and US Census 2017

Non- Buildings Total Residential Total Building Number of Residential Associated Population Number Building Replacement Municipality Households Building with (July 2018) of Value (in Value (in (July 2018) Value (in Residential Buildings thousands) thousands) thousands) Housing (%) Elizabeth 128,885 40,219 21,400 $9,129,417 $4,121,525 $13,250,942 87%

HAZUS estimates that there are 21,400 buildings in the region which have an aggregate total replacement value of approximately $13,251,000,000 (2014 dollars).

Table 6-3 presents the relative distribution of the value with respect to the general occupancies. This information will be used in conducting the HAZUS analysis for flood and hurricane events. Table 6-3 Building Exposure by Occupancy Type Sources: HAZUS 4.2

Occupancy Exposure ($1000) Percent of Total Residential 9,129,417 68.90% Commercial 2,884,818 21.77% Industrial 766,494 5.78% Agricultural 4,389 0.03% Religious 222,731 1.68% Government 63,023 0.48% Education 180,070 1.36% Total 13,250,942 100.0%

6.4 Land Use and Development Trends

A general analysis of land uses and development trends within the planning area is an important factor when determining the overall vulnerability of the region, predicting areas of future vulnerability and formulating mitigation options that influence future land use decisions. General

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 54 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 land uses and development trends for the City are discussed in the following subsections. More detailed land use information is provided in Section 4.8 and 4.9 of this Plan.

6.4.1 City of Elizabeth – Existing Land Use

Land use in Elizabeth is predominantly residential in character, both in number of parcels and the total area of parcels. Elizabeth has historically provided both housing and industry; however, the City is experiencing a trend toward an increasing number of residential parcels, and a decrease in the number of commercial and industrial parcels.

6.4.2 Revitalization Projects and Planning

The foregoing parcel data does not, however, exactly tell the story of the recent development changes in the City of Elizabeth particularly since the issuance of the 1990 Master Plan, use changes have been significant in the Interchange 13A area as well as in the E-port neighborhood along the Arthur Kill. Redevelopment has peppered other areas of the City as well, such as Midtown, and the UEZ program continues to assist in the revitalization of commercial areas.

6.4.2.1 Urban Enterprise Zone (UEZ)

The designation of most of the City’s commercial zoning districts as an Urban Enterprise Zone (UEZ) has had a significant positive impact on land use in the City, particularly in the Kapkowski Road area. The City’s UEZ was originally designated in the mid-1980s, which allowed for the establishment of such Elizabeth icons as IKEA Elizabeth Center and the Jersey Gardens Mall on top of a former landfill. Location in the UEZ provides commercial enterprises opportunities to participate in UEZ programs. The level of involvement in the programs is generally based on varying qualifying factors such as what percentage of employees are Elizabeth residents and whether on-the-job training is provided by the business entity. Enterprises such as IKEA and Jersey Gardens Mall qualify for the 3.3125 percent sales tax program wherein they charge customers a 3.3125 percent sales tax, which is funneled into the UEZ fund that uses the proceeds to finance additional UEZ programs. UEZ programs are administered by the Elizabeth Development Company (EDC), a non-profit entity retained by the City to run the UEZ program. Some highlights from the EDC’s 2001 Five Year Plan include the stabilization of the Midtown Special Improvement District, the completion of a parking garage in the Midtown Redevelopment Area, infrastructure improvements in E-port, streetscape design work at the UEZ gateway, and the completion of the Jersey Gardens Mall. The current goals include the continued stabilization of UEZ shopping districts, the improvement of infrastructure in targeted UEZ areas, the encouragement of gateway development, the completion of the Midtown Redevelopment Project, and the redevelopment of Trumbull Street. The Elizabeth UEZ Program expiration date has been renewed for another 16 years. Figure 6-2 represents the Urban Enterprise Zone Map from the 2005 Master Plan and is still current as of 2020.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 55 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Figure 6-2 Urban Enterprise Zones

6.4.2.2 Hope VI Redevelopment

Together with the advent of the City’s UEZ designation, the City’s participation in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) HOPE VI project has had the significant positive impact on land use in the City in the past 20 years. In 1997, HUD awarded the City a $28.9 million grant to revitalize the Pioneer Homes and Migliore Manor public housing developments. The HOPE VI project is discussed in greater detail in the Housing Element of the Master Plan; however, it is included in this land use discussion because of its importance in refurbishing and retaining residential areas. Revitalization of the housing stock in the E-port neighborhood sparked a coalescing of the neighborhood that resulted in several redevelopment and neighborhood revitalization plans. According to the City’s website “funding from HOPE VI and other souces have provided new health services, soccer fields at Waterfront Park, homeownership workshops, counseling and day care services, a new library, new jobs from redevelopment projects, and job training through a public/private partnership with Kean University.”

6.4.2.3 Redevelopment Plans

The City has created a number of redevelopment areas that are located in and around the UEZ, so that redevelopment can be approached in a comprehensive manner. Designating areas “in need of redevelopment” per the New Jersey Local Redevelopment and Housing Law is one (1) way to create specific design and use standards for an a targeted area via a redevelopment plan. This designation also assists redevelopers with parcel assembly and tax abatements, if necessary. The largest and highest-profile redevelopment area has been the Kapkowski Road area. Other redevelopment areas are smaller in scale, but no less successful in the eyes of the surrounding neighborhood, such as the Waterfront Redevelopment Area in E-port. The City’s redevelopment areas are in various phases of implementation; some areas have

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 56 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 been almost entirely redeveloped while the City is working with developers on other areas to complete the desired redevelopment.

6.4.2.4 Brownfields Development Area (BDA) Initiative The City participates in the BDA Initiative, which is a New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) pilot program. Under the Program, the DEP works closely with select municipalities, who are impacted by multiple brownfield sites, all stakeholders, and other State agencies including the Economic Development Authority (EDA) and the Office of Smart Growth (OSG) to remediate and redevelop these sites in a streamlined process. The BDA encourages the reuse of these sites, and does not create or impose any additional regulatory or approval requirements on properties within the BDA.

Six (6) designated BDA sites have been in the Elizabeth BDA program, and all are currently in the redevelopment process. Properties include the following: 1. Harborfront Villas (former American Chrome Site, Block 2, Lot 480) About 1/3 of the site has been developed 2. Apple Tree Village, 237-247 First Street, (Block 1, Lots 115A, 116) 15 two-family homes have been built on-site, still addressing remediation requirements 3. Bethlehem Steel Site, (Block 2, Lot 461) Has been successfully developed into School No. 28 4. Borne Chemical Site, (Block 4, Lot 1452) Portion has been developed into Waste Management Intermodal Facility, another portion remains undeveloped 5. Old Allied Signal, (Block 1, Lot 1314/1315) Redeveloped as a distribution center 6. Former Exact Anodizing Company, (Block 2, Lot 655) Plans for development in progress 7. Former Supermarket Property, (Block 2, Lot 604) Plans for redevelopment in progress 8. Kull Property, (Block 1, Lot 351) Will be redeveloped by the City as a parking lot

In addition to the above, the DEP Site Remediation Program (SRP) – Brownsfields: BDA Sites At A Glance, references redevelopment of the Elizabethport in the City has approximately eight (8) sites, consisting of 200 acres, reserved for hotel, commercial, warehousing, residential and open space.

6.4.2.5 Neighborhood Plans

Two (2) “neighborhoods,” Midtown and Elizabethport, were delineated under the now defunct Urban Coordinating Council (UCC) Neighborhood program. The UCC program dedicated planning and implementation monies to distressed neighborhoods. Although the program is no longer funded, other State programs have provided additional funding resources. For example, the Department of Community Affair’s (DCA) Smart Growth Planning Grant program funded E-port’s neighborhood plans. The City is currently seeking a grant to prepare a similar plan for Midtown. The New Point Road Neighborhood was designated under DCA’s Neighborhood Preservation Program. Neighborhood plans are another prong of planning that considers social programs including the establishment of community centers and job training, as well as rehabilitation of deteriorating buildings, parks and infrastructure. Neighborhood plans generally involve a great deal of public input into the contents of the plans, and serve as the guiding future vision of the neighborhood. Neighborhood plans also tend to include a detail list of proposed projects to carry out the vision of the neighborhood.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 57 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.4.3 Zoning In addition to the many redevelopment areas in the City, the City contains residential, commercial and industrial zoning districts that also regulate land use and building layout. These zoning districts are reflected on the NJDEP Land Use/Land Cover Map shown in Figure 6-3 below, which sets forth the basis for the 2016 City revised Zoning Map. In January 2018, modifications have been recommended for the City’s Zoning Map but have not been adopted. Therefore, the April 2016 Zoning Map is presented in Figure 6-4 below.

Figure 6-3 – NJDEP 2012 Land Use/Land Cover (Updated 2/17/2017)

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 58 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Figure 6-4 - City of Elizabeth Zoning Map, April 2016

6.5 Relationship of Elizabeth’s Master Plan to Other Plans

The New Jersey Municipal Land Use Law N.J.S. 40:55D-1 et seq. (MLUL) establishes the legal criteria for the adoption of a Master Plan. The MLUL provides that the Planning Board of a municipality is required to adopt a Master Plan at least once every ten years. The MLUL requires municipalities to prepare a new Master Plan at least once every ten years “stating the problems and objectives relating to land development, the extent to which these concerns had been addressed and the extent to which the assumptions or policies that provided the basis of the existing master plan had changed.

The MLUL also requires that all municipal Master Plans consider the relationship of the Master Plan to Plans of contiguous municipalities, county plans and the New Jersey State Development and Redevelopment Plan (SDRP).

The City of Elizabeth is located in Metropolitan Planning Area (PA1) as depicted on the State Plan Policy Map of the SDRP. In March, 2001 the New Jersey State Planning Commission adopted the New Jersey SDRP. The SDRP establishes a blueprint for the future growth and conservation of New Jersey. In order to maintain uniformity between municipalities and the SDRP, it is important to consider the following key concepts and policy objectives put forth by the New Jersey State Planning Commission.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 59 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 The City of Elizabeth has been designated as an Urban Center. Smart Growth policies supports development and redevelopment in recognized Centers—a compact form of development—as outlined in the SDRP, with existing infrastructure that serves the economy, the community and the environment.

“In the Metropolitan Planning Area, the State Plan’s intention is to provide for much of the state’s future redevelopment; revitalize cities and towns; promote growth in compact forms; stabilize older communities; redesign areas of sprawl; protect the character of existing stable communities.”

In the Metropolitan Planning Area, the State Plan’s intent is to do the following:

· Provide for much of the State’s future development and redevelopment · Revitalize Cities and Towns · Take advantage of increased densities and compact building design · Encourage distinctive, attractive neighborhoods with a strong sense of place · Provide for mixed-use concentrations of residential and commercial activity · Create a wide range of residential housing opportunities and choices with income mix · Provide for a variety of multi-modal transportation alternatives · Prioritize clean-up and redevelopment of brownfields and greyfields sites · Create cultural centers of state-wide significance · Re-design any existing areas of low-density sprawl

The City is located within a designated Urban Enterprise Zone (UEZ) District.

The intent of this Section is to coordinate planning and land use activities among communities and to reduce potential conflicts. This section provides a summary of the relationship to the master plans of neighboring municipalities bordering the City of Elizabeth, as well as Union County, and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). The following text is provided by the City and based on their January 8, 2016 adopted Land Use Plan Element of the Master Plan.

6.5.1 Adjacent Municipalities The City of Elizabeth is contiguous with six municipalities which include the Township of Hillside, the City of Linden, Borough of Roselle, Borough of Roselle Park and the Township of Union in Union County. The City of Newark in Essex County also borders the City of Elizabeth.

Hillside Township

The Township of Hillside had a population of 21,684 in 2006. It is 2.78 square miles in size. It borders the City of Elizabeth to the north and east of the Elizabeth River. The major highways that span across the Township include the Garden State Parkway, Interstate 78 and Route 22, allowing residents to travel across New Jersey.

The border between the Township of Hillside and the City of Elizabeth is generally zoned for Residential uses, however it varies between Residential Single-family (R-1), Residential Two-family (R-2) and Residential Multi-family (R-3). In between Salem Avenue and North Avenue there is a small area that is zoned Professional Office (PO).

City of Linden

The City of Linden lies southwest of Elizabeth and East of the Rahway River to Arthur Kill. In 2006 its population was 39,874 within its 11.2 square miles. Route 1 & 9 cut through Linden, Newark and Elizabeth providing easy access between both Union and Essex County.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 60 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 The zoning designation varies along the border of the City of Linden and Elizabeth. Between the Amtrak Railroad Line and Lidgerwood Avenue, the area is zoned Manufacturing, Research & Commercial (MRC). The area between Lidgerwood Avenue and Brunswick Avenue is zoned residential; consisting of either Residential Single-family (R-1) or Residential Two-family (R-2). Route 1 & 9/Edgar Road is designated Special Commercial Zone (C-4). From Brunswick Avenue to Arthur Kill the zoning designation is Industrial varying between Light Industrial (M1) and Medium Industrial (M-2).

City of Newark

The City of Newark is Elizabeth’s largest contiguous municipality which is comprised of 21.14 square miles, much of which belongs to Port Newark and Newark Liberty International Airport. In 2006 it had the largest population of the surrounding municipalities with 281,402. Newark’s enormous transportation hub is essential to the revitalization of the inner city. Route 1 &9, Interstate 78, Route 22 & 21, the New Jersey Turnpike/Interstate 95, Newark Penn Station and the Light Rail provide both residents and commuters alike with multiple options of traveling in and out of the city with relative ease. Newark Liberty International Airport delivers millions of people to hundreds of destinations across the globe and Port Newark imports and exports a vast selection of goods to various locations around the world.

The City of Newark encompasses most of Elizabeth’s northern border. Its zoning designation is mostly residential varying from Residential Two-family (R-2) to Multifamily Residential (R-3) to Four-family Residential (R-3A). Intertwined amongst the border are commercial zones, Community Commercial (C-2) and Central Commercial (C-3). Located in between Route 27 and the Amtrak Line is an area designated Manufacturing, Research & Commercial (MRC). Located next to Sherman Avenue is Wilson Park which is designated Open Space (OS).

Township of Union

The Township of Union is the located to the northwest of Elizabeth between Galloping Hill Road and the Elizabeth River. In 2006 the population was 55,039 within its 8.79 square miles. The Garden State Parkway, Interstate 78, Route 22 & Route 82 dissect Union to provide its residents with several options of accessing other areas.

The Township of Union and Elizabeth’s border is mainly zoned Single-family Residential (R-1). However, along Route 82/Morris Avenue the zoning designation is Neighborhood Commercial (C-1).

Borough of Roselle Park

The Borough of Roselle Park is Elizabeth’s smallest contiguous municipality that had a population of 13,124 in 2006. It is 1.2 square miles in size and it borders Elizabeth to the west. Roselle Park has a long railroad history that transports people to various locations including Newark and New York City along the Raritan Valley and the Conrail Lines. The Garden State Parkway is essential to many of the residents as it lies on the outskirts of the Borough and provides easy access to many destinations in New Jersey.

The Borough of Roselle Park borders Elizabeth from the Conrail Railroad to Magie Avenue. It is primarily zoned Single-Family Residential Zone (R-1), with the exception of the Hanratty Complex which is zoned Open Space (OS) near the Railroad.

Borough of Roselle

The Borough of Roselle is Elizabeth’s western border between the Conrail Line and Rahway Avenue. In 2006 it had a population of 21,158 within its 2.7 square miles. Warinanco Park encompasses a large part of the border between Roselle and Elizabeth. The park includes multiple baseball and softball fields, an ice skating ring, running paths, etc. which allows many residents to become involved in the community while staying active. The Lehigh Valley Railroad and the New Jersey Transit Bus line provide Roselle with public

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 61 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 transportation to surrounding areas and into New York City. It is also estimated to be six miles away from Newark Liberty International Airport.

The Borough of Roselle lies to the west of Elizabeth from the Conrail Line to the Amtrak Railroad line. For the most part the zone designation is residential, but it varies from Single- to Multi- family; not included is a section along the Conrail Line to West Grand Street, which is zoned Manufacturing, Research & Commercial (MRC).

County of Union Master Plan

Union County has adopted the following applicable planning documents:

1. Union County Master Plan Open Space & Recreation Element, October 1999

2. Union County Master Plan, June 1998

Although there have been no recent additional parks created in Elizabeth, the City is eager to develop new areas due to its large population and waterfront capabilities. The City also supports the continuing maintenance improvements needed for the existing parks.

The City’s Master Plan and zoning are relatively consistent with the Union County’s Land Use Plan. However, there are a few locations that should to be updated to reflect the existing conditions. For example, Jersey Gardens Mall area should be zoned commercial rather than industrial.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ)

The PANYNJ plays an important role in the City due to the presence of Newark Liberty International Airport and Port Elizabeth/Newark Marine Terminal. It has been noted that truck traffic into and out of the port area has steadily increased and must be addressed in order for this area to continue to thrive and expand. Traffic improvements should be coordinated with the Port Authority of New York / New Jersey near the Elizabeth / Newark Boundary Line. There is a need for a connector road from the port area to the NJ Turnpike and improved rail access.

The PANYNJ also plays a vital role in the land use patterns of the City. The expansion of the Newark Liberty International Airport and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rules and guidelines on flight patterns, cargo, flight crews and other business operations at the airport have a direct impact on the need for supporting land uses in the City such as hotels, parking lots, nearby commercial establishments and restaurants. The Elizabeth Port Authority Marine Terminal is part of the largest port on the East Coast, and the third largest port in the nation. The number of containers being shipped to the Elizabeth Port has continually increased and with ongoing improvements to the Goethals Bridge and the Bayonne Bridge, the size and number of container ships is only expected to increase in the near future. Both of these major international transportation hubs will continue to fuel its own micro economy that should be captured by the City and used to reinforce the patterns of redevelopment. The recent construction of new, state of the art warehousing facilities near the Elizabeth Port and the number of new hotels constructed near the airport are perfect examples of the type of development that should be planned for and encouraged around these facilities.

Overall, the City reports a good working relationship with the PANYNJ and would like to continue working together on expansion, intensification and reuse issues that affect Elizabeth.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 62 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6 Hazard Vulnerabilities

The following section of the Vulnerability Assessment reviews each of the high impact hazards identified as high potential/impact by the City during the hazard ranking process. The analysis considers both historical and potential impacts from disasters related to each hazard. HASUZ-MH modeling is incorporated into the assessment, when possible. The analysis also utilizes impact assessment and other vulnerability information provided in technical reports from a variety of regulatory and government agencies.

6.6.1 Earthquakes

Although the likelihood of an earthquake affecting the City was ranked with an avergage score of less than 2 (below Medium) in the Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment (Table 6-1), the resulting potential impact of such an event is considered to be “high” as millions of dollars in damages from a single could occur. In addition, according to FEMA How-To guidance, Understanding Your Risks, FEMA 386-2, p. 1-7, earthquakes should be profiled as a hazard if the peak ground acceleration (pga) is greater than 3%. The USGS earthquake hazard map presented in Figure 6-5 shows pga with a 10% chance of being exceeded over 50 years as highest in northeastern part of NJ (6%) and decreasing to the south (2%). As such, a vulnerability analysis for earthquakes is completed below. Figure 6-5 USGS Earthquake Hazard Map Source: USGS

The New Jersey Geological Survey (NJGS) acquired and analyzed geological and topographical data for Union County to compile maps of seismic soil class, liquefaction susceptibility and landslide susceptibility. The epicenter for all models was established at the center of Union County (Source: “Geologic Component of the Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Union County, New Jersey, Prepared for the New Jersey State Police, Office of Emergency Management, Scott D. Stanford, Ronald S. Pristas, David W. Hall, and Jeffery S. Walner New Jersey Geological Survey – September 2002).

A HAZUS analysis was performed by NJGS with significant changes in both the spatial distribution of damage and the total damage estimates as compared to default geology data. The results using upgraded geological data analysis also produced greater building damage in the Newark Bay and Arthur Kill areas of the County, where Class E (salt-marsh) soils are softer and more liquefiable then the default soils. The

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 63 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 entire City of Elizabeth is identified within this Class E soils geology area. In contrast, the analysis identified less building damage on the most upland areas of the County, were till and weathered-bedrock soils are stronger than the default. Because the uplands comprise most of the area of Union County, the upgrade analysis indicted a 10% to 20% reduction in the total economic loss prediction is comprised with output using the default data at all magnitudes. However, the economic loss estimated for Elizabeth was greater than the County average given the geologic conditions near the coastline within the City. Adding liquefaction increases building damage about 10% in susceptible census tracts such as Elizabeth, especially at magnitudes less than 7, but results in less than a 5% increase in total loss of the entire County. Structures that are particularly susceptible to damage from permanent ground displacement, such as pipelines and bridges, show significantly increased breakage when liquefaction is added to the analysis.

The report provides additional detail on building and property damage, business interruption, total economic loss and casualties under different scenarios based on earthquake magnitude. Those projected losses are not further described herein but rather are included by reference. Given the area-wide nature of this hazard, it is difficult to assess any changes to the loss estimates provided in the above referenced report since development within the City is limited. However, increased losses would be anticipated based upon projected population growth within the City and with more expensive structures as the City improves its infrastructure.

6.6.2 Flooding

Flooding can be divided into two (2) categories; Riverine flooding and Coastal Flooding. Elizabeth experiences both forms of flooding. The eastern border of the City is defined by the Newark Bay and the Arthur Kill. The Elizabeth River enters the City at its northwestern border with Hillside and empties into the Arthur Kill near the City’s southern corner. In addition to these water sources, a series of ditches have been created in the City to help alleviate the effects of excess stormwater runoff including the Great Ditch and the Peripheral Ditch. The Army Corps of Engineers have also constructed a levee system within the Elizabeth River and approximately 10 man-made detention ponds behind the levee system.

Review of a US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) letter dated 22 July 2019 to the City refering to four (4) Annual Inspection reports “conclude that the overall condition of these three levee systems is MINIMALLY ACCEPTABLE.” “However, the overall conditiona of the Left Bank South – JEL4 system of the subject Flood Risk Management Project is UNACCEPTABLE because a portion of the floodwall is missing in the vicinity of Third Avenue and the three nearby railroad closure gates are inoperable.” Therefore, the City is currently repairing the Left Bank South such that the levee can possibly receive and ACCEPTABLE rating at the next annual field inspection, in summer 2020. With at least a minimally acceptable rating on the Left Bank South, the City would maintain active status in the USACE P.L. 84-99 Rehabilitation Program for rehabilitation repairs should a significant storm occur.

6.6.2.1 Riverine Flooding

Riverine flooding poses a serious threat to the City. Heavy rainfall events can cause flash flooding which closes roads, damages infrastructure and endangers lives. Water rescues from vehicles are sometimes required during flash flood events. As a result, the City must divert municipal resources to evacuation and rescue efforts.

6.6.2.2 Coastal Flooding

FEMA defines a coastal zone as any coastal area that includes coastal waters extending to the outer limit of state submerged land title and ownership, adjacent shorelines and land extending inward to the extent necessary to control shorelines. A coastal zone includes islands, beaches, transitional and intertidal areas,

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 64 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 and salt marshes. The effects of coastal flooding during significant storm can affect the coastal zone of the City, as well as the other inland neighborhoods which share a boundary with the Elizabeth River. The head waters from the Elizabeth River empty into the Arthur Kill and also experience some tidal fluctuations. Newark Liberty International Airport is located less than two (2) miles from the defined coast line. In addition, many of the large industrial storage facilities associated with marine businesses are located in or adjacent to the City’s coastal area including Port Elizabeth.

6.6.2.3 Flood Modeling

From the HAZUS program and using FEMA Q3 Digital Flood Data (Digitized Flood Insurance Rate Maps [DFIRM]) where available for the City, along with the modeling approach as described earlier, losses were estimated using return period events for 100-year and 500-year storm. Assumptions based on engineering judgment were made where data were not readily available, namely related to the extent of flooded areas and the depth of flooding. Using this approach, annualized losses were calculated by accounting for the losses from different return period events and their respective annual probabilities of occurrence. For example, the annual probability of observing a 100-year flood in any given year is 1 percent. The annual probability of observing a 500-year flood in any given year is 0.2 percent. This generic model does not take into account the condition of the levee system and does not account for the condition assessments of the four levees.

6.6.2.4 100-Year Flood Event

The following section presents the planning area vulnerability and estimated exposure, and potential annualized losses, respectively, caused by a 100-year flood through figures and tables. Due to the complexity of analyzing detailed flood risk for the City, it is important to note that this risk assessment is based on aggregated data and represents a base-level assessment. As such, additional adjacent communities outside of the City of Elizabeth Planning Area may have been included in the flood modeling due to the requirements of the Division of Emergency Management (DEM). The City as well as any areas outside of the City used as part of the modeling is considered the model region. However, damages to building stock, essential facilities, and other HAZUS model output parameters (debris generation, etc.) are specific to the City of Elizabeth. Figure 6-7 represents the extent of flooding within the planning area during a 100-year storm.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 65 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Figure 6-7 Extent of Flooding during a 100-Year Event Source: HAZUS v. 4.2

6.6.2.4.1 Building Damage General Building Stock Damage

General building stock is defined as all buildings located within the model area without specification as to use. HAZUS estimates that about 38 buildings will be at least moderately damaged to some degree in a 100-year flood, which is over 75% of the total number of buildings in the flood impact area. Per the model, an estimated 1 building will be completely destroyed from a 100-year storm. Table 6-4 below summarizes the expected building damage by occupancy during a 100-year storm in the model region.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 66 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-4 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy – 100-Year Flood Source: HAZUS 4.2

% Building 1-10 11-20 21-30 Damage Occupancy Model Model Model Model Model Model % Type Counts Counts % Counts % Residential 70 65 27 25 7 6 Commercial 2 100.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Industrial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Agricultural 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Religious 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Government 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Educational 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Total 72 27 7 % Building 31-40 41-50 Substantially > 50 Damage Occupancy Model Model Model Model Model Model Counts % Counts % Counts % Residential 2 2 1 1 1 1 Commercial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Industrial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Agricultural 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Religious 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Government 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Educational 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Total 2 1 1 Percent Building Damage: Of the buildings which will be impacted during the storm, the number of buildings which will incur a specific percentage of over-all damage Essential Facility Damage

Essential facilities are defined as police stations, fire stations, hospitals and schools. The essential facility damage model is based on the after-effects of a flood event and, as such, the verbiage used to discuss the damage is provided in the present tense as if a storm has recently occurred. In addition, as previously discussed, the model data is based on 2010 information from FEMA.

Before the hurricane/storm event, the flood model region assumes that 886 hospital beds are available. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that 886 hospital beds are available for use given the size of the storm impacted area and the model area population. No other documentation regarding the duration of hospital bed availability is provided in the modeling. Table 6-5 presents the number of essential facilities potentially damaged during a 100-year flood but is not location specific. It just indicates that these number of facilities have a potential to be damaged.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 67 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-5 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities– 100-Year Flood Source: HAZUS 4.2

Essential Facilities Classification Total Probability of at Probability of Expected Loss in Least Moderate Complete of Use < 1 Day Model Damage <50% Damage > 50% Area Emergency Operation 0 0 0 0 Centers Fire Stations 7 1 0 1 Hospitals 3 0 0 0 Police Stations 4 0 0 0 Schools 41 1 0 1

6.6.2.4.2 Induced Flood Damage/Debris Generation HAZUS estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the flood and breaks debris into three general categories: 1) Finishes (dry wall, insulation, etc.), 2) Structural (wood, brick, etc.) and 3) Foundations (concrete slab, concrete block, rebar, etc.). The model provided a distinction between the debris types because different types of material handling equipment will be required to handle each type of debris. The model estimates that 4,442 tons of debris will be generated. Of the total amount, 44% consists of finishes, 35% consists of structural and the remaining 21% consists of foundations. If the debris tonnage is converted into an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 178 truckloads (at 25 tons/truck) to remove the debris generated by the flood event. Figure 6-8 shows the breakdown of potential debris during a 100-year flood event.

Figure 6-8 Debris Generated during a 100-Year Flood Source: HAZUS v. 4.2

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 68 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.2.4.3 Social Impact Social Impact is defined as the effects of the storm event on the model area’s population. HAZUS estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the flood event and the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates 1,041 households (or 3,122 people) will be displaced due to a 100-year flood. Displacement includes households evacuated from within or very near to the inundation area. Of these, 295 people (out of a population of 124,969) will seek temporary shelter in public places. Figure 6-9 shows the potential displaced population/persons seeking short term public shelter during a 100-year storm.

Figure 6-9 Displaced Population/Persons during a 100-Year Storm Source: HAZUS v. 4.2

6.6.2.4.4 Economic Loss Economic loss is defined as financial losses due to loss of buildings and loss of business while a building is unusable due to damages. The total economic loss estimated for a 100-year flood is 192.75 million dollars, which represents 5.29% of the total replacement value of the damaged study case buildings.

The model also provides losses which are broken into two categories: direct building losses and business interruption losses. The direct building losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to buildings and contents. The business interruption losses are the losses associated with inability to operate a business because of the damage sustained during the flood. Business interruption losses also include temporary living expenses for those people displaced from their homes because of flooding.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 69 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 The total building related loss estimated for the 100-year flood event is 83.92 million dollars, with 56.5% of the estimated losses related directly to business interruption. The residential occupancies and related losses account for 26.12% of the total loss. Table 6-6 summarizes the building related economic loss estimates and Figure 6-10 shows loss by occupancy type.

Table 6-6 Building Related Economic Loss Estimates (Millions) 100-Year Flood Source: HAZUS 4.2 Category Area Residential Commercial Industrial Others Total Building Loss Building 22.79 7.34 2.56 1.42 34.11 Content 14.73 19.62 6.84 7.50 48.69 Inventory 0.00 0.36 0.77 0.00 1.13 Subtotal 37.52 27.32 10.17 8.92 83.92 Business Interruption Loss Income 0.44 25.10 0.28 2.80 28.62 Relocation 5.57 6.73 0.36 1.50 14.16 Rental Income 5.76 4.99 0.07 0.20 11.02 Wage 1.05 22.46 0.46 31.06 55.02 Subtotal 12.82 59.28 1.17 35.55 108.83 All Total 50.34 86.60 11.34 44.47 192.75

Figure 6-10 Building Losses by Occupancy Types during a 100-Year Flood Source: HAZUS v.4.2

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 70 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.2.5 500-Year Flood Event

The following section presents the planning area vulnerability and estimated exposure, and potential annualized losses, respectively, caused by a 500-year Flood through figures and tables. Due to the complexity of analyzing detailed flood risk for the Planning Area, it is important to note that this risk assessment is based on aggregated data and represents a base-level assessment. As such, additional adjacent communities outside of the City of Elizabeth Planning Area have been included in the flood modeling due to the requirements of the DEM. However, damages to building stock, essential facilities, and other HAZUS model output parameters (debris generation, etc.) are specific to the City of Elizabeth. Figure 6-11 represents the extent of flooding within the planning area during a 500-year storm. Figure 6-11 Extent of Flooding during a 500-Year Storm Source: HAZUS 4.2

6.6.2.5.1 Building Damage General Building Stock Damage

General building stock is defined as all buildings located within the model area without specification as to use. HAZUS estimates that about 62 buildings will be at least moderately damaged in a 500-year flood which is over 76% of the total number of buildings in the flood impact area. Per the model, an estimated 2 buildings will be completely destroyed under the 500-year flood. Table 6-7 summarizes the expected damage by general occupancy for the buildings in the region.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 71 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-7 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy 500-Year Flood Source: HAZUS 4.2

% Building 1-10 11-20 21-30 Damage Occupancy Model Model Model Model Model Model % Counts Counts % Counts % Residential 112 65.00 40 23.00 11 6.00 Commercial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Industrial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Agricultural 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00

Religious 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Government 0 0.00 1 100 0 0.00 Educational 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Total 112 41 11 % Building Damage 31-40 41-50 Substantially > 50 Occupancy Model Model Model Model Model Model Counts % Counts % Counts % Residential 5 3.00 3 2.00 2 1.00 Commercial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Industrial 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Agricultural 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Religious 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Government 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Educational 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Total 5 3 2 Percent Building Damage: Of the buildings which will be impacted during the flood event, the number of buildings which will incur a specific percentage of over-all damage. Essential Facility Damage

Essential facilities are defined as police stations, fire stations, hospitals and schools. The essential facility damage model is based on the after-effects of a flood event and, as such, the verbiage used to discuss the damage is provided in the present tense as if a storm has recently occurred. In addition, as previously discussed, the model data is based on 2010 information.

Before the hurricane/storm event, the flood model region assumes that 886 hospital beds are available. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that 886 hospital beds are available for use given the size of the storm impacted area and the model area population. No other documentation regarding the duration of hospital bed availability is provided in the modeling. Table 6-8 presents the number of essential facilities potentially damaged during a 500-year event.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 72 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-8 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities– 500-Year Flood Source: HAZUS 4.2

Essential Facilities Classification Total Probability of at Probability of Expected Loss in Least Moderate Complete of Use < 1 Day Model Damage <50% Damage > 50% Area Emergency Operation 0 0 0 0 Centers Fire Stations 7 1 0 1 Hospitals 3 0 0 0 Police Stations 4 0 0 0 Schools 41 1 0 1

6.6.2.5.2 Induced Flood Damage/Debris Generation HAZUS estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the flood and breaks debris into three general categories: 1) Finishes (dry wall, insulation, etc.), 2) Structural (wood, brick, etc.) and 3) Foundations (concrete slab, concrete block, rebar, etc.). The model provided a distinction between the debris types because different types of material handling equipment will be required to handle each type of debris. The model estimates that 6,021 tons of debris will be generated. Of the total amount, 47% consists of finishes, 33% consists of structural and the remaining 19% consists of foundations. If the debris tonnage is converted into an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 241 truckloads (at 25 tons/truck) to remove the debris generated by the flood event. Figure 6-12 show the potential debris generated during a 500-year storm event.

Figure 6-12 Debris Generated during a 500-Year Flood Source: HAZUS 4.2

6.6.2.5.3 Social Impact Social Impact is defined as the effects of the storm event on the model area’s population. HAZUS estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the flood event and

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 73 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates 1,415 households (or 4,246 people) will be displaced due to the flood. Displacement includes household evacuated from within or very near to the inundated area. Of these, 420 people (out of a total population of 124,969) will seek temporary shelter in public places. Figure 6-13 shows the potential displaced population during a 500-years storm event.

Figure 6-13 Displaced Population during a 500-Year Storm Source: HAZUS 4.2

6.6.2.5.4 Economic Loss Economic loss is defined as financial losses due to loss of buildings and loss of business while a building is unusable due to damages. The total economic loss estimated for a 500-year flood event is 277.90 million dollars, which represents 7.63% of the total replacement value of the damaged study case buildings.

The model also provides losses which are broken into two categories: direct building losses and business interruption losses. The direct building losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to buildings and contents. The business interruption losses are the losses associated with inability to operate a business because of the damage sustained during the flood. Business interruption losses also include temporary living expenses for those people displaced from their homes because of the flood.

The total building-related loss estimated for the 500-year flood event is 131.07 million dollars, with 53% of the estimated losses related directly to business interruption within the region. The residential occupancies of the impacted buildings account for 26.64% of the total loss. Table 6-9 provides a summary of the losses associated with the estimated building damage. Figure 6-14 shows potential Building Losses by Occupancy Types during a 500-Year Storm.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 74 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-9 Building Related Economic Loss Estimates (Millions) 500-Year Storm Source: HAZUS 4.2 Category Area Residential Commercial Total Industrial Others Building Loss

Building 33.78 12.28 4.26 2.13 52.45 Content 21.54 32.35 11.56 11.33 76.77 Inventory 0.00 0.63 1.22 0.00 1.85 Subtotal 55.32 45.26 17.04 13.46 131.07 Business Interruption Loss

Income 0.69 34.06 0.38 3.91 39.04 Relocation 8.04 9.32 0.46 2.05 19.86 Rental Income 8.35 6.90 0.10 0.26 15.60 Wage 1.63 31.02 0.60 39.07 72.33 Subtotal 18.71 81.29 1.53 45.29 146.83 All Total 74.03 126.55 18.56 58.75 277.90

Figure 6-14 Building Losses by Occupancy Types during a 500-Year Storm Source: HAZUS v.4.2

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 75 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.2.6 History of Flooding Events and Occurrences

The City of Elizabeth experiences flooding during both major and minor weather events. As noted in the FEMA Risk Assessment Summary for New Jersey, flooding in Union County occurs at a high frequency with extensive severity, implying that the probability of future events with extensive damage is inevitable. Because of the age of the City, many of the City’s stormwater utilities are unable to capture and dispose of flood waters before rising waters cause damage to the City’s structures, roadways and properties. Most of the costly flooding events which have affected the City are not equated to hurricane events or Nor’easters. Six of the eight events with recorded property damage values were due to low pressure systems which brought extensive rainfall to the area causing flash flood and urban flooding. Evidence of the frequent flooding in areas of the City prompted the Planning Committee to identify several flood mitigation actions to address the issue including Action Items #1 through #5. Each of these mitigation actions were specifically designed to alleviate the damage to properties caused by frequent flood events in these areas of the City, thereby reducing the potential hazard poised by flood including monetary damages to public and private property. For additional information regarding the proposed mitigation actions, please see Section 8 of the Hazard Mitigation Plan.

6.6.2.7 National Flood Insurance Program

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established by the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, with the intent of reducing the need for post-disaster federal aid by offering flood insurance and providing mitigation incentives to properties that have significant flood risks. The NFIP holds over five million flood insurance policies—roughly 5 percent of all households in the country—that amount to over $1.2 trillion in coverage.

The FEMA Mitigation Division manages the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The three (3) components of the NFIP are as follows: flood insurance, floodplain management and flood hazard mapping. Nearly 20,000 communities across the United States and its territories participate in the NFIP by adopting and enforcing floodplain management ordinances to reduce future flood damage. In exchange, the NFIP makes federally backed flood insurance available to homeowners, renters, and business owners in these communities. Community participation in the NFIP is voluntary. The City of Elizabeth has been a participant in the program since May 1970.

Flood insurance is designed to provide an alternative to disaster assistance to reduce the escalating costs of repairing damage to buildings and their contents caused by floods. Flood damage is reduced by nearly $1 billion a year as a result of community implemented floodplain management systems and by property owners purchasing of flood insurance. Additionally, buildings constructed in compliance with NFIP building standards suffer approximately 80 percent less damage annually than those not built in compliance with those standards.

In addition to providing flood insurance and reducing flood damages through floodplain management regulations, the NFIP identifies and maps the Nation's floodplains. Mapping flood hazards creates broad- based awareness of the flood hazards and provides the data needed for floodplain management programs and to actuarially rate new construction for flood insurance.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 76 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.2.8 Repetitive Loss (RL) Properties Another way to gauge flood hazard risk is to identify and analyze the number of properties that have filed multiple flood insurance claims. Properties that meet these criterions are typically referred to as “repetitive loss” (RL) properties. The NFIP definition of repetitive loss is, (definition provided by NFIP and FEMA), “any NFIP-insured property that, since 1978 and regardless of any change(s) of ownership during that period, has experienced: a) four or more paid flood losses; or b) two paid flood losses within a 10-year period that equal or exceed the current value of the insured property; or c) three or more paid losses that equal or exceed the current value of the insured property.”

For the purposes of the Community Rating System (CRS) the definition of repetitive loss is, “a property for which two or more NFIP losses of at least $1,000 each have been paid within any 10-year rolling period since 1978.” For planning purposes, information on repetitive loss properties in the City of Elizabeth Planning Area has been researched. FEMA’s RL Properties Strategy is used to provide a frame of reference for this review; FEMA’s RL Properties Strategy which is aimed at eliminating or reducing the damage to property and the disruption of life caused by repeated flooding of the same properties. Data search for repetitive loss properties indicate that 12 repetitive loss properties were identified across the City in 2018. Local officials maintain specific property information for these repetitive loss properties; however, details are not included in this Plan due to privacy restrictions.

6.6.2.9 Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL) Properties

In addition to RL properties, NFIP maintains a category of RL identified as Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL). The definition of severe repetitive loss, as established in section 1361A of the National Flood Insurance Act, and as amended (NFIA), 42 U.S.C. 4102a, is defined as a residential property that is covered under an NFIP flood insurance policy and: (a)That has at least four (4) NFIP claim payments (including building and contents) over $5,000 each, and the cumulative amount of such claims payments exceeds $20,000; or (b) For which at least two separate claims payments (building payments only) have been made with the cumulative amount of the building portion of such claims exceeding the market value of the building. For both (a) and (b) above, at least two (2) of the referenced claims must have occurred within any ten-year period, and must be greater than ten (10) days apart. There are no SRL properties within the City of Elizabeth Planning Area.

6.6.3 Coastal/Tropical Storm, Nor’easter, and Hurricane In addition to flooding, coastal storms, nor’easters, and hurricanes, all have a potential for strong wind(s) which can affect both the coastal zone and more inland portions of the City. For this section, these estimated damages are based on flooding and wind model from FEMA HAZUS 4.2.

6.6.3.1 Coastal Storms and Hurricanes

The chance of a coastal tropical storm or hurricane that may affect the area during the coastal storm and hurricane seasons was reviewed by Mott MacDonald. FEMA HAZUS model utilizes data from 1944 to present in the analysis and counted hits when a storm or hurricane was within about 100 miles (165 km) of the City. Figure 6-15 was created by the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and indicates that the City has about a 12-18% chance (the light blue color) per year of experiencing a strike by a hurricane or coastal/tropical storm that is named.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 77 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Figure 6-15 Hurricane or Tropical Storm Probability Source: The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Historically, the City of Elizabeth has been on the edge of several hurricane paths from 1888 to present. Recently, in 2012, Elizabeth was impacted by Superstorm Sandy and snow and ice storms in the winter of between 2013 and 2014.

A HAZUS loss estimation model for a hurricane event was created and utilized to estimate the effects of hurricane force winds on the City in the event of a direct hit. The model was designed to interpret the effects of a 100-year storm impact and a 500-year storm impact on the City. The 100-year and 500-year wind modeling data is specific to the affects from winds and was selected to be incorporate with the flood modeling data used most often by both NFIP and FEMA when interpreting the effects of natural hazard events on communities. The specific impacts under the wind event are based on aggregated data and represent a base-level assessment for the Planning Area as a whole. As previously stated, the Committee recommends that efforts be undertaken (on an ongoing basis) to enhance, expand and further improve the accuracy of the baseline established here and enhance the level of detail provided in future plan updates.

6.6.3.1.1 100-Year Hurricane Event The following section presents the planning area vulnerability and estimated exposure, and potential annualized losses, respectively, caused by a 100-year hurricane (flooding and wind) through figures and tables. Due to the complexity of analyzing detailed hurricane risk for the City, it is important to note that this risk assessment is based on aggregated data and represents a base-level assessment.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 78 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.3.1.1.1 Building Damage General Building Stock Damage

General building stock is defined as all buildings located within the model area without specification as to use. HAZUS estimates that about 13 buildings will be at least moderately damaged by wind and flooding in a 100-year storm brought on by a hurricane within the study area. This would be 0% of the total number of buildings in the study area. Per the model, no buildings (estimated) will be completely destroyed by a 100- year wind event. Table 6-10 below summarizes the expected building damage by occupancy during a 100- year storm and Table 6-11 summarizes the expected damage by building type.

Table 6-10 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy – 100-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

None Minor Moderate Severe Destructive Occupancy Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Residential 18494.44 99.31 115.40 0.62 11.32 0.06 0.84 0.00 0 0.00 Commercial 1975.06 99.30 13.44 0.68 0.50 0.03 0 0.00 0 0.00 Industrial 485.18 99.22 3.79 0.78 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0 0.03 Agricultural 25.85 99.42 0.15 0.56 0 0.02 0 0.00 0 0.00 Religious 175.05 99.46 0.95 0.54 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Government 41.70 99.28 0.30 0.72 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Educational 55.60 99.29 0.40 0.71 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Total 21,252.87 134.43 11.85 0.85 0 Percent: Of the buildings which will be impacted during the storm event, the number of buildings which will incur a specific percentage of over-all damage.

Table 6-11 Expected Building Damage by Type – 100-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2 \ Building None Minor Moderate Severe Destructive Type Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Concrete 493 99.06 5 0.94 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Masonry 4,235 98.32 63 1.45 9 0.21 1 0.01 0 0.00 Manufactured 70 99.99 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Homes Steel 1,395 99.17 11 0.80 0 0.03 0 0.00 0 0.00 Wood 14,440 99.75 35 0.24 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 Essential Facility Damage

Essential facilities are defined as police station, fire stations, hospitals and schools. As with flooding, the essential facility damage model is based on the after-effects of a hurricane and as such, the verbiage used is in the present tense as if a storm has recently occurred.

Before the hurricane, the region had 886 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that 886 hospital beds and 100% are available for use. After one week, 100% of the beds will be available. By 30 days, 100% will be operational. Table 6-12 presents the expected damage to essential facilities during a 100-year hurricane.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 79 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-12 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities – 100-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

Facilities Classification Total Probability of at Probability of Expected Loss of Least Moderate Complete Use < 1 Day Damage >50% Damage > 50% Fire Stations 7 0 0 7 Hospital (Trinitas) 3 0 0 3 Police Stations 4 0 0 4 Schools 41 0 0 41

6.6.3.1.1.2 Induced Hurricane Damage/Debris Generation HAZUS estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the hurricane and breaks the debris into three (3) general categories: a) Brick/Wood, b) Reinforced Concrete/Steel, c) Eligible Tree Debris, and d) Other Tree Debris. The model provides a distinction between debris types because different types of material handling equipment will be required to handle each type of debris. The model estimates that 1,685 tons of debris will be generated. Of the total amount, 110 tons (7%) is Other Tree Debris. Of the remaining 1,575 tons, 83% consists of brick/wood, 0% consists of reinforced concrete/steel and the remaining 10% consists of Eligible Tree Debris. If the building debris tonnage is converted to an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 52 truckloads (@25 tons/truck) to remove the building debris generated by the hurricane. The number of Eligible Tree Debris truckloads will depend on how the 271 tons of Eligible Tree Debris are collected and processed. The volume of tree debris generally ranges from about 4 cubic yards per ton for chipped or compacted tree debris to about 10 cubic yards per ton for bulkier, uncompacted debris. Figure 6-16 shows the potential 100-year hurricane debris generated.

Figure 6-16 Estimated Debris Generated from a 100-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 80 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.3.1.1.3 Social Impact Social Impact is defined as the effects of the storm event on the model area’s population. HAZUS estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the hurricane and the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates 0 household to be displaced due to the hurricane and 0 people (out of a total population of 124,969) will seek temporary shelter in public shelters.

6.6.3.1.1.4 Economic Loss Economic loss is defined as financial losses due to loss of buildings and loss of business while a building is unusable due to damages. The total economic loss estimated for a 100-year wind event is 10.1 million dollars, which represents 0.08 % of the total replacement value of the damaged study case buildings.

The model also provides losses which are broken into two (2) categories: direct building losses and business interruption losses. The direct building losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to buildings and contents. The business interruption losses are the losses associated with inability to operate a business because of the damage sustained during the high wind event. Business interruption losses also include the temporary living expenses for those people displaced from their homes because of the wind damage.

The total property damage losses were 10 million dollars. 4% of the estimated losses were related to the business interruption of the region. By far, the largest loss was sustained by the residential occupancies which made up over 93% of the total loss. Table 6-13 below provides a summary of the losses associated with building damage from a 100-year hurricane (i.e., wind and flooding).

Table 6-13 Building Related Economic Loss Estimates (Thousands of Dollars) 100 – Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

Category Area Residential Commercial Industrial Others Total Property Damage Building 8,188.21 463.87 141.69 76.18 8,869.95 Content 806.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 806.75 Inventory 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Subtotal 8,994.96 463.87 141.69 76.18 9,676.70 Business Interruption Loss Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Relocation 177.55 8.60 0.00 0.01 186.16 Rental 251.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 251.09 Wage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Subtotal 428.64 8.60 0.00 0.01 437.25 Total Total 9,423.60 472.48 141.69 76.19 10,113.95

6.6.3.1.2 500-Year Hurricane Event The following section presents the planning area vulnerability and estimated exposure, and potential annualized losses, respectively, caused by a 500-year hurrricane through figures and tables. Due to the complexity of analyzing detailed hurricane risk for the City, it is important to note that this risk assessment is based on aggregated data and represents a base-level assessment.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 81 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 6.6.3.1.2.1 Building Damage

General Building Stock Damage

General building stock is defined as all buildings located within the model area without specification as to use. HAZUS estimates that about 231 buildings will be at least moderately damaged by wind in a 500-year storm brought on by a hurricane within the study area. This is over 1% of the total number of buildings in the study area. Per the model, an estimated 0 buildings will be completely destroyed by a 500-year wind event. Table 6-14 below summarizes the expected damage by occupancy for the buildings and Table 6-15 summarizes the expected damage by building type. Table 6-14 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy – 500-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

None Minor Moderate Severe Destructive Occupancy Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Residential 17,153.12 92.11 1,261.21 6.77 201.40 1.08 5.91 0.03 0.36 0.00 Commercial 1,872.63 94.15 98.23 4.94 15.99 0.80 2.15 0.11 0.00 0.00 Industrial 460.33 94.14 24.86 5.08 3.12 0.64 0.65 0.13 0.03 0.01 Agricultural 24.29 93.41 1.39 5.34 0.23 0.87 0.09 0.36 0.00 0.02 Religious 166.74 94.74 8.74 4.97 0.51 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Government 39.94 95.09 1.92 4.57 0.14 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Educational 53.14 94.90 2.66 4.74 0.20 0.36 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 Total 19,770.19 1,399.01 221.60 8.81 0.39 Percent: Of the buildings which will be impacted during the storm event, the number of buildings which will incur a specific percentage of over-all damage

Table 6-15 Expected Building Damage by Type – 500-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

Building None Minor Moderate Severe Destructive Type Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Concrete 467 93.78 28 5.65 3 0.57 0 0.01 0 0.00 Masonry 3,857 89.56 313 7.27 131 3.05 5 0.12 0 0.00 Manufactured 69 98.97 1 0.77 0 0.19 0 0.00 0 0.00 Homes Steel 1,324 94.13 68 4.84 13 0.89 2 0.13 0 0.00 Wood 13,508 93.32 933 6.44 35 0.24 0 0.00 0 0.00 Essential Facility Damage

Essential facilities are defined as police station, fire stations, hospitals and schools. As with flooding, the essential facility damage model is based on the after-effects of a hurricane and as such, the verbiage used is in the present tense as if a storm has recently occurred.

Before the hurricane, the region had 886 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that 886 hospital beds (100%) are available for use. After one week, 100% of the beds will be available. By 30 days, 100% will be operational. Table 6-16 presents the expected damage to essential facilities during a 500-year event.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 82 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Table 6-16 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities 500-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

Facilities Classification Total Probability of at Probability of Expected Loss of Least Moderate Complete Use < 1 Day Damage >50% Damage > 50% Fire Stations 7 0 0 7 Hospitals 3 1 0 3 Police Stations 4 0 0 4 Schools 41 0 0 41

6.6.3.1.2.2 Induced Hurricane Damage/Debris Generation Hazus estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the hurricane. The model breaks the debris into four general categories: a) Brick/Wood, b) Reinforced Concrete/Steel, c) Eligible Tree Debris, and d) Other Tree Debris. This distinction is made because of the different types of material handling equipment required to handle the debris. The model estimates that a total of 12,026 tons of debris will be generated. Of the total amount, 442 tons (4%) is Other Tree Debris. Of the remaining 11,584 tons, Brick/Wood comprises 91% of the total, Reinforced Concrete/Steel comprises of 0% of the total, with the remainder being Eligible Tree Debris. If the building debris tonnage is converted to an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 420 truckloads (@25 tons/truck) to remove the building debris generated by the hurricane. The number of Eligible Tree Debris truckloads will depend on how the 1,087 tons of Eligible Tree Debris are collected and processed. The volume of tree debris generally ranges from about 4 cubic yards per ton for chipped or compacted tree debris to about 10 cubic yards per ton for bulkier, uncompacted debris. Figure 6-17 shows the potential 500-year hurricane debris generated, which is about 10 times the amount of potential debris.

Figure 6-17 Estimated Debris Generated from a 500 Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

6.6.3.1.2.3 Social Impact

Social Impact is defined as the effects of the storm event on the model area’s population. HAZUS estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the hurricane and the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 83 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 estimates 0 households to be displaced due to the hurricane. Of these, 0 people (out of a total population of 120,568) will seek temporary shelter in public shelters.

6.6.3.1.2.4 Economic Loss

Economic loss is defined as financial losses due to loss of buildings and loss of business while a building is unusable due to damages. The total economic loss estimated for a 500-year wind event is 82.9 million dollars, which represents 0.63% of the total replacement value of the damaged study case buildings.

The model also provides losses which are broken into two categories: direct building losses and business interruption losses. The direct building losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to buildings and contents. The business interruption losses are the losses associated with inability to operate a business because of the damage sustained during the flood. Business interruption losses also include the temporary living expenses for those people displaced from their homes because of the wind damage.

The total building-related loss estimated for the 500-year wind event is 83 million dollars, with 8% of the estimated losses related directly to business interruption within the region. The residential occupancies of the impacted buildings account for 88% of the total loss. Table 6-17 provides a summary of the losses associated with the estimated building damage during a 500-year hurricane. Table 6-17 Building Related Economic Loss Estimates (Thousands of Dollars) 500-Year Hurricane Source: HAZUS 4.2

Category Area Residential Commercial Industrial Others Total Property Damage Building 61,827.35 4,625.77 1,432.21 532.62 68,417.95 Content 5,801.39 917.50 643.28 41.48 7,403.65 Inventory 0.00 30.90 91.01 0.37 122.27 Subtotal 67,628.73 5,574.17 2,166.50 574.47 75,943.87 Business Interruption Loss Income 0.00 450.75 12.77 35.36 498.88 Relocation 2,437.22 590.45 47.70 32.58 3,107.95 Rental 2,775.52 236.86 8.54 2.68 3,050.60 Wage 0.00 232.53 18.19 88.62 339.34 Subtotal 5,212.73 ,,517.60 87.21 159.24 6,996.78 Total Total 72,841.47 7,111.76 2,253.71 733.71 82,940.65

6.6.3.2 Nor’easter

In addition to coastal storms and hurricanes, the City is also vulnerable to Nor’easters. Nor'easters, named for the strong northeasterly winds blowing in ahead of the storm, are also referred to as extratropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms, or Great Lake storms. Mid-latitude cyclones are characterized by having a low pressure system with associated warm, cold, and occluded fronts. Nor'easters are a type of mid-latitude cyclone that occur off the east coast of North America. The storms can occur at any time of the year, but are most frequent and most violent between September and April because of the temperature differences of the converging air masses: the cold air is colder, and the warm air drawn up from the south and from the ocean is still quite warm. The storms usually develop where the Gulf Stream comes closest to the continent of North America within 100 miles east or west of the coastline and progress generally northward to northeastward typically attaining maximum intensity near New England and the Maritime Provinces. Nor’easters generally include precipitation, winds of gale force, rough seas, and coastal flooding to the affected regions. Impacts from a nor’easter can include the following: flooding, high winds, damage to utility

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 84 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 lines, building damage from flood waters and wind-driven water, business interruption, emergency personal dispatch, vehicular and transit corridor disruptions. Elizabeth recently sustained significant wind and flooding damage due to the nor’easter event which occurred during the period of April 14 through April 20, 2007. Twelve (12) counties in New Jersey, including Union County, were significantly impacted by the storm. All twelve counties received a Presidential Disaster Declaration.

6.6.4 Coastal Erosion Coastal Erosion affects a very specific part of the City of Elizabeth; its eastern and south-southeastern border. The eastern border of Elizabeth is defined by Newark Bay and the south-southeast border by the Arthur Kill. Both water bodies experience tidal influence which is the main cause of shoreline erosion or shoreline change. However, causes of shoreline erosion can be both natural and human-induced. The primary natural causes of erosion along the Elizabeth shoreline is relative sea-level rising, which is approximately one vertical foot every 100 years, and coastal storms. The primary human-induced costal erosion factor is interruption of sediment sources and sediment transport. Examples include the armoring of sediment source coastal bluffs (banks) with revetments, seawalls, and bulkheads, and interruption of sediment transport by the construction of jetties and groins.

The area of the City vulnerable to coastal erosion is primarily used for industrial, commercial and recreational purposes. The shoreline is currently improved by bulk heads in areas with development along the water. Areas along the water which are not developed and contain no structures do not maintain bulkheads or any other coastal barriers. These undeveloped areas are identified in the City’s Master Plan as vacant areas.

Most of the industry and commercial businesses within this area of the City rely on the waterways as a method of shipping products and receiving goods. Most notably, the PANYNJ maintains a large marine terminal in the northeast corner of the City on Newark Bay. As such, these businesses maintain the bulkheads to protect not only human life, but to protect the business interest; thus, coastal erosion is considered an area of vulnerability.

The probability of future, naturally occurring, coastal erosion events are highly likely due to the meteorological cycles of Earth. However, advancements in technology are aiding the City in mitigating the potential effects such as redesigned construction materials and building techniques. In addition, regulations set forth by the State of New Jersey and the City help mitigate human-induced coastal erosion, thereby minimizing the probability of future events. Regulations have been developed in coastal areas to prevent the loss of coastal land due to erosion. These regulations include buffer zones, permitting regulations, the construction of seawalls and implementation of other erosion reducing strategies.

6.6.5 Thunderstorms Thunderstorms affect relatively small areas when compared with hurricanes, Nor’easters and winter storms. Despite their small size, thunderstorms are dangerous. The typical thunderstorm is 15 miles in diameter and lasts an average of 30 minutes. Of the estimated 100,000 thunderstorms that occur each year in the United States, about 10 percent are classified as severe. NWS defines severe weather as any weather event that can and does pose a threat to life and property including but not limited to heavy snow, freezing rain, high winds, flash flooding, river flooding, thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Thunderstorms carry a multiple vulnerability threat as they can produce a series of primary hazards to life and property including flash flooding, tornadoes, lightning, high winds and hail.

Despite the severity of these possible hazards, New Jersey is ranked 22nd in the number of lightning injuries from 1959 to present with only 118 injuries reportedly caused by lightning and 29th in the number of lightning

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 85 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 related deaths from 1959 to present with 27 lightning related deaths. According to NOAA, 136 tornadoes have been reported in New Jersey from 1959 to present yet only one (1) tornado related death was recorded during this time frame.

6.6.6 Severe Winter Storms

Severe Winter Storms are a combination of snow and ice accumulations with strong winds. These conditions are most significant during the following three types of winter storms: Blizzards, Heavy Snowstorms, and Ice Storms

Blizzard: The NWS defines a blizzard as a snow event with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of 1/4 mile or less, for an extended period of time (i.e. > 3 hours). A blizzard is also the most dangerous of all winter storms because it combines the three main factors in gauging a storm’s severity: snow fall amounts, wind and duration.

Heavy Snowstorm: A snowstorm is defined by the NWS as a snow event that drops four or more inches of snow in a twelve-hour period or less. This type of winter storm can down trees, cause power outages, damage property, lead to injuries, and cause fatalities.

Ice Storm: An ice storm occurs when moisture falls and freezes immediately upon impact on trees, power lines, communication towers, structures and roads, for example. Ice loads are the result of the storm and oftentimes, the weight of the ice on a communications tower line can cause power outages and other damages. In addition, ice storms present hazard issues for transportation systems – on roads, rail lines, and air travel.

The impacts experienced by the City during sever winter storms include the following: immobility on roadways and through high-traffic corridors, decreased ability to initiate mobile emergency plans such as police, fire or ambulance due to impassible roads, loss of utilities and lack of heat in homes.

During an ice storm, two (2) types of ice can be produced due to the weather conditions: black ice and freezing rain.

Ø Black Ice: A thin layer of ice forms on all surfaces and is virtually impossible to detect. It contributes to traffic fatalities and injuries.

Ø Freezing Rain (Drizzle): Temperatures drop to near freezing and the liquid precipitation cools as it falls through the colder air then freezing on trees, power lines, roads and structures, primarily causing slippery conditions on untreated roadways.

New Jersey's middle latitude location results in snow falling in all portions of the state each winter. There have been several unusual winters in the past century when measurable snow (greater than or equal to 0.1 inch) has failed to fall or been almost absent over southern portions of the state. On average, seasonal snowfall totals 10-20 inches per season in the southern third of the state, 20-30 inches per season in the central third and 30-40 inches per season in the lower elevations of the northern third. The higher northern locations receive 40-60 inches per season. These averages are not particularly meaningful, as inter-annual variations may be on the order of feet. Two winters within the past decade exemplify the variability.

Over the last 5-6 years, there have been a number of significant snow storms in New Jersey. Between February 11-14, 2014, the local area was hit with 10”-20” of snow and was listed as a NOAA “Category 3 – Major” storm. Between January 22-24, 2016, a NOAA “Category 4” storm hit the local area with 20”-30” of snow. Between March 12-15, 2017, the local area was hit with another NOAA “Category 3” snow storm

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 86 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 with 4”-10” of snow. Between January 3-5, 2018, a coastal “blizzard” hit New Jersey with 6”-12” of snow. In the fall of 2018 and winter of 2019, there were a number of smaller snow storms in Union County based on stroms records from the Office of the New Jersey Climatologist at Rutgers University. Between November 15-16, 2018, Union County received approximately 6.5” of snow and in February 12, 2019, the City received 2.7” of snow and on March 2, 2019, the City received 5.2” of snow with another 5 pls inches the following day. It is not always the snow that becomes dangerous to people, local travel and businesses, bitter cold is sometimes accompanying the snow storms. From February 13-20, 2015, the 8 days only averaged a high of 25.4 and the lowest temperature was1 degree Farenheight. Newark airport hit a low of 0 degrees on February 14, 2016. In late 2017 into early January 2018, there were 10 days of extreme cold followed involving a “bomb cyclone” (winds up to 50mph) and a polar vortex. On January 7, 2018, Trenton recorded a low off minus 2 with much of the state in single digits or low teens. Cold temperatures also can also start early in the winter season as in 2017, Newark recorded a new record low temperature of 28 degrees on November 12 only to have the record broken on November 12, 2019 at 25 degrees. There were also another polar vortex event that brought temperatures below zero, such as on January 31, 2019, inland temperatures were below zero while coastal temperatures were all single digits. Newark airport recorded a temperature of 3 degrees without accounting for wind chill factor.

The potential for future storms is highly likely given the City’s geographic location and history of previous sever winter storms with snow and wind. As a result, it is not possible to determine the type and number of existing or future structures within the hazard area. Further, without the benefit of a defined “hazard area” it is not feasible to assess damage to future structures and/or infrastructure from severe winter storms given the area-wide nature of such hazard. However, it is reasonable to assume that the cost of damage will rise incrementally based upon any increase in development and population density across the City, as well as the City’s response to these weather/climate occurrences.

6.6.7 Extreme Heat

Because of New Jersey’s geographic location, temperatures can vary greatly throughout the calendar year. Excessive summer heat is often denoted through counts of days with maximum temperatures greater than or equal to 90°F and greater than or equal to 100°F. Interior lowlands of the state have the largest number of such days; on average these areas have 20-30 days of greater than or equal to 90°F. Fewer than 10 such days occur each summer along the coast and at higher elevations. Days with temperatures above 100°F are rare throughout New Jersey, averaging one (1) day or less per year statewide. However, the best chance of experiencing such a day lies in urban locations such as the City of Elizabeth.

According to the NOAA, 158 heat-related fatalities were reported in the United States as of 2005. Of the 158, two (2) heat-related fatalities were reported in New Jersey, accounting for 1.27% of all heat-related fatalities in the United States in 2005. This number is expected to increase over time.

Extreme heat events impact the entire City. Often times, extreme temperature events can be directly related to other hazard events such as drought. An increased hazard risk caused by extreme temperature events often has the most significance effect on cities like Elizabeth with large urban areas that maintain multi-floor office buildings and residential structures. A municipality’s ability to supply a moderating temperature to a multi-floor structure filled with occupants becomes significantly multiplied by the number of persons located within each building. The City has developed extreme heat plans within their local programming, which supply the public with available resources during an extreme heat event. However, these extreme heat plans are only a successful practice when the public is aware of the program and the availability of assistance and resources.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 87 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Do to the lack of historical information, no specific dollar damages have been calculated for the hazard. With respect to future development, it is reasonable to assume that the cost of damage will rise incrementally based upon any increase in development and population density across the City.

6.7 Summary of Hazard Vulnerabilities

High: Indicates that a jurisdiction is highly vulnerable to the hazard based upon previous occurrences of the hazard in the jurisdiction, local knowledge of hazard areas and the qualitative analysis of the hazards.

Medium: Indicates that a jurisdiction is moderately vulnerable to the hazard based upon previous occurrences of the hazard in the jurisdiction, local knowledge of hazard areas and the qualitative analysis of the hazards.

Low: Indicates that a jurisdiction is not very vulnerable to the hazard based upon previous occurrences of the hazard in the jurisdiction, local knowledge of hazard areas and the qualitative analysis of the hazards. Where applicable, the rankings have also taken into consideration the quantitative analyses that have been developed as part of the Planning process. Table 6-18 shows the hazard ranking vulnerability assesment. Table 6-18 Hazard Ranking Vulnerability Assessment

Ranking Overview of Vulnerability

High vulnerability to Flooding, Coastal Storms/Nor’easter/Hurricanes, Coastal High Erosion, Thunderstorms, Severe Winter Storm, Extreme Heat and Earthquake.

Medium vulnerability to Drought, Extreme Cold, Hailstorm, Mosquito-Borne Medium Illness.

Low vulnerability to Avalanche, Expansive Soil, Ice-Jams, Land Subsidence, Low Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanoes, Wildfires

7 Capability Assessment

This Section addresses the Capability Assessment portion of the Plan, which has been performed in a manner consistent with the goals and objectives set forth in FEMA 386-3, Developing the Mitigation Plan, Identifying Mitigation Actions and Implementation Strategies dated April 2003. DMA 2000 does not require the completion of a Capability Assessment for a local hazard mitigation plan; however, such an assessment is considered an essential step in the development of a meaningful mitigation strategy that meets the needs of the City while taking into account their own unique abilities. Specifically, the Rule states that a community’s mitigation strategy should be “based on existing authorities, policies, programs and resources, and its ability to expand on and improve these existing tools” (44 CFR, Part 201.6(c) (3)).

The Planning Committee considers individual community goals and limitations, and where possible, attempts to identify local and more regional mitigation measures that have the potential to enhance existing

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 88 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 planning tools and mechanisms. Further, the performance of the Capability Assessment identifies the existence of several planning programs and tools which are in place throughout the City. It is important to recognize that the lack of mitigation planning or strategies in existing programs, policies and resources should not be construed as a judgment that such documents are incomplete or deficient since hazard mitigation is not included in the original intent of same. Overall, the Capability Assessment has determined that planning is widely applied to response-related activities via the use of Comprehensive Master Plans and Emergency Operations Plans and that the City is familiar with the concept of planning such that it has been institutionalized across the City. Therefore, an important consideration in this Plan is that the City will be able to apply this planning experience and implement hazard mitigation and likewise apply hazard mitigation to current planning activities taking place for emergency response. This Plan will assist in obtaining consensus and long-term success by identifying mitigation projects and actions focused on policy, program and technical documentation development as outlined in Section 8. 8 Mitigation Strategy

The purpose of a Mitigation Strategy is to set forth mitigation goals, objectives and strategies for prioritizing proposed projects based on all of the information collected during the Planning Process. This Section of the Plan states the aspirations and courses of action the City intends to follow to reduce vulnerability from future natural hazard events. This Section is organized as follows: Section 8.1 provides an overview of the overall Mitigation Strategy; Section 8.2 provides the City’s goals and objectives with respect to proposed mitigation; Section 8.3 provides the discussion of the range of mitigation actions identified through the Planning Process; and, Section 8.4 describes the Mitigation Action Plan for the City of Elizabeth Planning Area.

It should be noted that a comprehensive approach to mitigation planning was established and recognized that the actions identified as most critical in one (1) area of the City may not be the same as those identified in another area. As a result, this Section has organized mitigation actions by needs level as well as by type to avoid direct comparison since the goal of this process is to improve overall mitigation planning by enhancing efforts at both the local (municipal) and regional (county/state) level.

8.1 Overview

This mitigation strategy provides the City with the basis for action. Based on the findings of the Risk Assessment, the Capability Assessment and the Vulnerability Assessment, the City of Elizabeth Planning Committee developed a broad-based mission statement supported by goals and actions, which is intended to guide both the day-to-day operations and the long-term approach taken by the City to reduce the impacts of hazards. To achieve these aims, this Section was organized into the following components: - Mitigation Goals and Objectives; - Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Measures; and - Mitigation Action Plan The Plan has been designed to be both comprehensive and strategic in nature. The Plan was created to provide a comprehensive review of hazards and identify short-term and long-term, far-reaching policies and projects intended to not only reduce the future impacts of hazards, but also to assist the City in achieving compatible economic, environmental and social goals. In addition, the Plan is strategic, in that all policies and projects were linked to agencies or departments responsible for future implementation.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 89 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 When possible, funding sources were identified that could be used to assist in project implementation. The foundation for mitigation action has been developed through the Planning Process, which has evolved from the prior efforts undertaken by the City. This Section includes the overall Mitigation Action Plan (MAP), which has been developed through Planning Process. The MAP lists specific actions, a general description of the actions, those responsible for implementation, potential funding sources that may be used, and an estimated target date for completion. The MAP is comprised of those actions identified by the City such that the overall MAP is formed by the compilation of all identified projects. The approach undertaken by the Planning Committee and described herein provides those in charge of the Plan’s overall implementation with a clear roadmap that will serve as an important monitoring tool. The collection of actions also serves as an easily understood menu of policies and projects for those decision makers who want to quickly review the mitigation aspect of the Plan.

8.2 Goals and Objectives

To guide the actions of those charged with implementation, the Plan follows a traditional planning approach, beginning with the development of a mission statement that provides the overall guiding principle for goals and objectives. Next, the Planning Committee identified goals which will enable the City to meet the intent of the mission statement and implement mitigation actions including policies or projects designed to reduce the impacts of future hazard events. Each hierarchical step is intended to provide a clearly defined set of policies and projects based on a rational framework for action. The components of the planning framework are explained in greater detail below. Mission Statement: Provides guiding principles of the Hazard Mitigation Plan.

Goals: Goals represent broad statements that provide the framework for achieving the intent of the mission statement.

Hazard Mitigation Policies: Policies are defined as a course of action agreed to by members of the Planning Team.

Hazard Mitigation Projects: Projects are defined as specific actions taken to address defined vulnerabilities to existing buildings or systems. Potential funding sources are listed for each project.

Mitigation Action Plan: Prioritized listing of actions (policies and projects), including a categorization of mitigation technique, hazards addressed, individual or organization responsible for implementation, estimated timeline for completion, and potential funding source(s).

8.2.1 Mission Statement

The Planning Committee sets forth the following mission statement.

To update and maintain a comprehensive pre-disaster hazard mitigation (PDM) program guided by enhanced education and outreach efforts, new policies and programs, to improve planning processes based on study findings, and improved evacuation procedures leading to the creation of policies and projects designed to reduce the vulnerability of individuals, families, households, businesses, infrastructure and critical facilities from the adverse impacts of natural hazards.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 90 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 8.2.2 Mitigation Goals

The goals listed below are the result of an inclusive planning process described in Section 3. The goals were developed where Committee members representing the City and its departments agreed upon broad mitigation categories that provided the basis for the formulation of local mitigation goals. The mitigation categories and goal statements developed through the City of Elizabeth Planning process are listed below: Mitigation Categories:

· Public Education and Outreach · Planning and Studies, as needed · Policy/Zoning Development · Projects/Flooding Mitigation · Projects/Structural Mitigation · Stormwater and Wastewater Policies/Projects · Training Mitigation Goals

Goal 1 Develop hazard mitigation policies and programs designed to reduce the impact of natural hazards on people and property. Goal 2 Identify and implement hazard mitigation projects to reduce the impact from hazard events and disasters.

Goal 3 Conduct studies and implement planning processes to foster and increase the understanding of local hazard vulnerability and to protect the natural environment.

Goal 4 Improve education and outreach efforts regarding preparedness and mitigation actions that can be implemented by citizens, businesses and county and municipal government officials.

Goal 5 Improve evacuation procedures for natural hazards.

The goals of this Plan reflect similar goals to those set forth in the State of New Jersey Hazard Mitigation Plan. This similarity is not intentional, and it should be noted that the goals of the New Jersey Plan were not presented to members of the City of Elizabeth Planning Committee. This approach was purposeful in fostering an environment that did not manipulate the goal-making process in any particular direction based on preceding determinations. It is, however, understandable that the goals established through these two (2) separate efforts are similar because of the similar purposes of the State of New Jersey and City of Elizabeth Plans.

State of New Jersey Hazard Mitigation Plan Goals: Goal 1 – Protect Life Goal 2 - Protect Property Goal 3 – Promote Sustainable Economy Goal 4 – Protect the Environment Goal 5 – Increase Public Preparedness

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 91 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 8.3 Range of Identified Mitigation Actions

In formulating the City’s mitigation strategy, the City of Elizabeth Planning Committee considered a wide range of activities to help achieve the goals of the City. As part of the City’s onging effort to update and plan for HMP actions, The City in June 2018 provided a summary of their HMP 2017 questionaire that was sent out in July 2017 to six (6) members of the Hazard Mitigation Committee. The City from this updated questionaire prepared a report in June 2018 that summarized the responses of the 2017 questionaire, summarized their vulnerability assessment based on primary hazards and updated their list of mitigation projects going into the 2020 HMP update (refer to the Hazard Mitigation Plan 2017/2018 Questionnaire and Updates document in Appendix C)

Based on the June 19, 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan update summary and responses to the 2017 questionaires, Table 8-1 was updated and lists the mitigation actions that were identified by participants in the planning process. Mitigation actions identified by the City address both existing building and infrastructure located within hazard areas, as well as addressing new infrastructure in hazard areas prior to their development. The majority of the mitigation actions identified are focuses on existing buildings and infrastructure and ongoing projects. New projects were not added since 2015 because the original list of projects are still being completed. However, in some cases, the City would like to develop pro-active mitigation actions to prevent any losses due to hazards in the future. The locations of the identified mitigation projects (existing and new) are presented on Figure 8-1 below. In addition, the majority of the mitigation actions presented identify projects related to flood hazards. The City considered all hazard vulnerabilities when identifying potential mitigation actions, yet at the time of updating the Plan, many City departments focused on flooding hazards as it is the predominate hazard for their departments and the City. At least one (1) mitigation action was identified for each identified hazard vulnerability and discussed in Section 6 of the Plan.

As described in Section 4.9, Land Use and Infrastructure, and Section 6.4, Land Use and Development Trends, new development and redevelopment is slated for both the suburban portions of the City as well as the commercial and industrial areas. The more urban areas have been characterized by redevelopment including Brownfield properties/sites with a wider range of end uses. The areas currently zoned for commercial and industrial use are characterized by new development and redevelopment for commercial and industrial usage as well as residential along the waterfront. As part of the planning process, Elizabeth considered land development trends and identified new development/redevelopment projects. Because of these conditions, the Planning Committee includes new development and redevelopment into the mitigation planning aspect of the Plan when practicable. Table 8-1 below shows all the existing and ongoing mitigation projects with 3 recently completed within the last HMP update period. There are current no new projects as there are still many existing mitigation By projects to be completed.

Please note the mitigation categories listed in Table 8-1 are selected from those identified in Section 8.2.

Table 8-1 Mitigation Projects

Specific Hazard(s) Action or Issue Category New or Existing Addressed Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Dowd Avenue Pump Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Existing Station Wastewater hurricane; Policies/Projects Thunderstorms

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 92 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Trumbull Street Regional Structural Mitigation; Storms, Nor’easter, Stormwater Stormwater and Existing hurricane; Management Project Wastewater Thunderstorms Policies/Projects Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Structural Mitigation; Monmouth Road Flood Storms, Nor’easter, Stormwater and Existing Control (JMEUC Issues) hurricane; Wastewater Thunderstorms Policies/Projects Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Park Avenue and Structural Mitigation; Storms, Nor’easter, Summit Road Flood Stormwater and Existing hurricane; Control Wastewater Thunderstorms Policies/Projects Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Structural Mitigation; Maple Avenue/Route Storms, Nor’easter, Stormwater and Existing 1&9 Flooding hurricane; Wastewater Thunderstorms Policies/Projects Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Route 1&9 Structural Mitigation; Storms, Nor’easter, Flooding/Railroad Stormwater and Existing hurricane; Flooding Wastewater Thunderstorms Policies/Projects Existing/Ongoing Partial Sewer Cherry Street/West Flood Mitigation Project; Separation Flooding, Coastal Jersey Sewer Structural Mitigation; Completed, has Storms, Nor’easter, Separation/Pump Station Stormwater and reduced amount of hurricane; Upgrades and Generator Wastewater maintenance Thunderstorms Installation Policies/Projects required for Pump Station. Additional upgrades still needed. Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Structural Mitigation; Storms, Nor’easter, Urisno Dam Repairs Stormwater and Existing hurricane; Wastewater Thunderstorms Policies/Projects Existing/On-going

Flood Mitigation Project; Have been installing Flooding, Coastal Portable Generators and Structural Mitigation; generator Storms, Nor’easter, Transfer Switches at key Stormwater and connections on all hurricane; traffic signals Wastewater new signal Thunderstorms Policies/Projects. installations, have not needed to use them yet

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 93 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Flood Mitigation Project; Completed Flooding, Coastal Elizabeth River and Structural Mitigation; Storms, Nor’easter, Arthur Kill shoreline Stormwater and Stabilized after hurricane; stabilization Wastewater Sandy and holding Thunderstorms Policies/Projects. up well. Existing/On-going Flood Mitigation Project; Miscellaneous Structural Mitigation; Replaced generator Flooding, Coastal Generators and Stormwater and at Police HQs Storms, Nor’easter, Electrical Upgrades at Wastewater (HMGP). Installed hurricane; Critical Facilities Policies/Projects; Supply of generators at four (4) Thunderstorms Fuel. community/recreation centers Completed Significantly Salt and Storage Projects/ Structural increased our salt Severe Winter Storm Facilities Upgrades. Mitigation. supply, has eliminated potential shortfalls Extreme Heat Education and Awareness Education and Outreach; Existing Extreme Heat Outreach Training

Earthquake Awareness Education and Outreach; Existing Earthquakes Outreach Training Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Third Avenue and Existing Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Atlantic Street Flood Wastewater Project is in design hurricane; Control Policies/Projects. phase Thunderstorms Existing Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal South Second Pump Station is now Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Station and Flood operational, Wastewater hurricane; Control with Generator upgrades and Policies/Projects. generator in design Thunderstorms phase Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Atlanta Plaza Floodwall Existing Wastewater hurricane; Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal South Street Pump Under Construction Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Station and Flood to be completed in Wastewater hurricane; Control 2020 Policies/Projects Thunderstorms

Flood Mitigation Project; Completed Flooding, Coastal Progress Street Flood Stormwater and Has reduced flooding Storms, Nor’easter, Control Wastewater impacts on hurricane; Policies/Projects. surrounding Thunderstorms

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 94 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 properties since installation. Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Bayway Area Sewer Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Existing Separation- Wastewater hurricane; Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Under Construction Trumbull and 6th Streets Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, to be completed in Flood Control Wastewater hurricane; 2020 Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Flooding, Coastal Broad Street Firehouse Flood Mitigation Project; Storms, Nor’easter, Existing Engine #1 Flood Proofing Firehouse hurricane; Thunderstorms Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Kapkowski Road Pump Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Station with upgrades Existing Wastewater hurricane; and Generator Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Trenton Avenue Pump Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Station with upgrades Existing Wastewater hurricane; and Generator Policies/Projects Project Thunderstorms Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Trenton Avenue Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Existing Generator Wastewater hurricane; Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Existing Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Mattano Park Pump Electric system Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Station with upgrades replaced after Sandy Wastewater hurricane; and Generator and flood proofing Policies/Projects constructed. Still Thunderstorms needs a generator. Existing Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Decker Avenue Storm Stormwater and This is part of the Storms, Nor’easter, Sewer (Backups). Wastewater Lincoln Avenue hurricane; Policies/Projects. Project which is in Thunderstorms design. Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Pennington Street Sewer Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Existing Surcharge Wastewater hurricane; Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Fueling emergency and Marina Generator Respond to fueling public public vehicles to Emergency Fueling Existing vehicles respond to site in the Station case of an emergency

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 95 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Existing/On-going Flooding, Coastal Maintain and upgrade the Maintenance, repairs Storms, Nor’easter, Levee Project levee for flood water and improvements Hurricane; management. are being made on a Thunderstorms continuous basis. Notify the Public of Site wide Emergency Public Notification Existing Hazardous and locations Overhead Signs of Muster Points Transfer main electrical Site wide Solar Power Public Notification Existing power to solar for Disconnects continuous electricity. Notify the public of critical Infectious Disease Public Notification Existing stations to receive Control vaccinations. New Fire House Improve Emergency Flood mitigation project Existing Construction Response. Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Lincoln Avenue Stormwater and Existing Storms, Nor’easter, Stormwater Drainage Wastewater hurricane; Improvements In design Policies/Projects Thunderstorms

8.3.1 Mitigation Techniques

The Planning Committee evaluated a wide-selection of techniques to achieve the mitigation goals of the Plan. The techniques range from prevention to an expansion or enhancement of emergency services to increased public awareness. The techniques discussed and integrated into the overall mitigation strategy are further described below.

1. Prevention

Prevention is particularly effective in reducing a community’s future vulnerability, especially in areas where development has not occurred or capital improvements have not been substantial. Examples of preventative activities include: § Planning and Zoning § Hazard Mapping § Open Space Preservation § Floodplain Regulations § Stormwater Management § Drainage System Maintenance § Capital Improvements Programming § Shoreline/ Riverine/ Fault Zone Setbacks

2. Property Protection

Property protection measures enable structures to better withstand hazard events, remove structures from hazardous locations, or provide insurance to cover potential losses. Examples include: § Acquisition

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 96 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 § Relocation § Building Elevation § Critical Facilities Protection § Retrofitting (i.e. wind proofing, flood proofing, seismic design standards) § Insurance § Safe Room Construction

3. Natural Resource Protection

Natural resource protection activities reduce the impact of hazards by preserving or restoring the functions of natural systems. Examples of natural systems that can be classified as high hazard areas include floodplains, wetlands and barrier islands. Thus, natural resource protection can serve the dual purpose of protecting lives and property while enhancing environmental goals such as improved water quality or recreational opportunities. Parks, recreation, or conservation agencies and organizations often implement these measures. Examples include: § Floodplain Protection § Beach and Dune Preservation § Riparian Buffers § Fire Resistant Landscaping § Erosion and Sediment Control § Wetland Restoration § Habitat Preservation § Slope Stabilization

4. Structural Projects

Structural mitigation projects are intended to lessen the impact of hazards by modifying the environment or hardening structures. Structural projects are usually designed by engineers and managed or maintained by public works staff. Examples include: § Reservoirs § Levees, Dikes, Floodwalls or Seawalls § Detention and Retention Basins § Channel Modification § Storm Sewer Construction

5. Emergency Services

Although not typically considered a mitigation technique, emergency services minimize the impact of a hazard on people and property. Actions taken immediately prior to, during, or in response to a hazard event include: § Warning Systems § Search and Rescue § Evacuation Planning and Management § Flood Fighting Techniques

6. Public Information and Awareness

Public Information and Awareness activities are used to advise residents, business owners, potential property buyers and visitors about hazards and mitigation techniques they can use to protect themselves and their property. Examples of measures used to educate and inform the public include: § Outreach and Education § Training

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 97 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 § Speaker Series, Demonstration Events § Real Estate Disclosure § Hazard Expositions

8.3.2 Mitigation Techniques in the Planning Area

The Planning Committee reviewed the updated findings of the Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment to determine feasible and effective mitigation techniques. The DMA 2000 specifies that state and local governments should prioritize actions based on the level of risk a hazard poses to the lives and property of a given jurisdiction. The Mitigation Matrix – Natural Hazards is provided in Table 8-2 and was used as a general guide to ensure that the hazards identified through this planning process were addressed utilizing appropriate mitigation techniques. Table 8-2 Mitigation Matrix – Natural Hazards

Mitigation Natural Hazards Technique Flooding Costal Storm/ Thunderstorm Severe Winter Extreme Extreme Nor'easter/ Storm Heat Cold Hurricane

Prevention X X X X

Property X X X Protection Natural Resource X X X Protection Structural X X X X X X Projects Emergency X X X X X X Services Public Information X X X X X X and Awareness

8.3.3 Alternative Mitigation Actions To further the development of a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects other than those identified in Table 8-1 above, which would reduce the effects of the City’s vulnerability to hazards, the Planning Committee reviewed the FEMA Alternative Mitigation Action By Hazard worksheet provided in FEMA guidance document “Developing the Mitigation Plan”. Using the hazards identified and discussed in detail in Section 6 of the Plan, the Planning Committee, discussed the ideas presented in the worksheet and identified probable actions which could be successful. The information generated from the worksheet will be used in the future as guidance to assist the City in the development of new mitigation projects to add to the City’s mitigation action/project list. Table 8-3 below presents a summary of the Planning Committee’s findings.

Table 8-3 Alternative Mitigations Actions By Hazard

ALTERNATIVE MITIGATION ACTIONS BY HAZARD Flood (Adapted from FEMA, 386-3, App D, Worksheet Job Aid #1) Storm Hurricane Earth-quake Nor’ easter/ ExtremeHeat Severe Winter Thunderstorm Coastal Storm/ Building codes x x x x x x

tion Coastal zone management regulations x x Preven

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 98 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 Density controls x x x x x Design review standards x x x x x x Easements x x x x x Environmental review standards x x x x x x Floodplain development regulations x x x Floodplain zoning x x x Forest fire fuel reduction Hillside development regulations x Open space preservation x x x x x Performance standards x x x x x x Shoreline setback regulations x x x x Special use permits x x x x x x Stormwater management regulations x x x x Subdivision and development regulations x x x x x x Transfer of development rights x x x x x Acquisition of hazard-prone structures x x x x x Construction of barriers around structures x x x Elevation of structures x x x Relocation out of hazard areas

Property x x x x Protection Structural retrofits (e.g., reinforcement, flood proofing, storm shutters, bracing, etc.) x x x x x x Hazard information centers x x x x x x

Public education and outreach programs x x x x x x Public

Education Real estate disclosure x x x x x x Best Management Practices (BMPs) x x x x x x Dune and beach restoration x Forest and vegetation management Sediment and erosion control regulations x x x x Stream corridor restoration x x x x Natural Resource Protection Stream dumping regulations x x x x Urban forestry and landscape management x x x Wetlands development regulations x x x

ALTERNATIVE MITIGATION ACTIONS BY HAZARD Storm Flood (Adapted from FEMA, 386-3, App D, Worksheet Job Aid #1) Storm/ Coastal Hurricane Nor’ easter/ Earth-quake ExtremeHeat Severe Winter Thunderstorm Critical facilities protection x x x x x x Emergency response services x x x x x x Hazard threat recognition x x x x x x Hazard warning systems (community sirens, NOAA weather radio) Services x x x x x x Emergency Health and safety maintenance x x x x x x Post-disaster mitigation x x x x x x Channel maintenance x x x x Dams/ Reservoirs x x x x Levees and floodwalls x x x x

Projects Safe room/ shelter

Structural x x Seawalls/bulk-heads x

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 99 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 8.4 Mitigation Action Plan

The mitigation action developments are dynamic and Table 8-3 represents the general and typical format in which each mitigation action is recorded. Each action has been designed to achieve the goals identified in the Mitigation Strategy and the compilation of all the mitigation actions forms the MAP for this Plan. By identifying specific projects and policies, the MAP laid the framework for the City to engage in distinct actions that will reduce their exposure to future hazard events and disasters.

Table 8-4 Mitigation Action Worksheet Mitigation Action A. Municipal Department:

B. Action Item (Describe):

C. Hazard(s):

D. Lead Agency/Department Responsible

E. Estimated Cost

F. Funding Method:

G. Implementation Schedule

H. Priority:

Notes: A. Municipal Department: Be sure to identify your department. B. Action Item: Identify specific actions that, if accomplished, will reduce vulnerability and risk in the impact area. Actions should match mitigation goals. C. Hazard(s): The hazard(s) the action attempts to mitigate. D. Lead Agency/ Department Responsible: Identify the local agency, department or organization that is best suited to accomplish this action. E. Estimated Cost: If applicable, indicate the cost to accomplish the mitigation action. This amount should be estimated until a final dollar amount can be determined. F. Funding Method: If applicable, indicate how the cost to complete the action will be funded. For example, funds may be provided from existing operating budgets (General Revenue), a previously established contingency fund (Contingency/ Bonds), or a federal or state grant (External Sources). G. Implementation Schedule: Indicate when the action will begin, and when the action is expected to be completed. Remember that some actions will require only a minimum amount of time, while others may require a long-term continuing effort. H. Priority: Indicate whether the action is a 1) High priority – short-term immediate – reducing overall risk to life and property; 2) Moderate priority – an action that should be implemented in the near future due to political or community support or ease of implementation; 3) Low priority – an action that should be implemented over the long term that may depend on the availability of funds.

The MAP includes an element of prioritization for the mitigation actions set forth herein. The mitigation actions for Elizabeth were prioritized based on the following five (5) factors: (1) effect on overall risk to life and property; (2); ease of implementation; (3) political and community support; (4) special emphasis on a general economic cost/benefit review; and (5) funding availability. An overall ranking of High, Moderate or Low was given to each action based on analysis of the action in terms of the five factors listed above. The criteria above (items a. through h.) were also used by the City to evaluate the feasibility of identified actions. If the action was determined not to be cost feasible, it was eliminated from consideration. Generally, cost feasibility was performed in a qualitative manner as part of discussions during the Planning Committee

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 100 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 meetings. Cost determinations for potential projects was based upon information from a variety of sources including actual costs from prior similar projects within the City or adjacent jurisdictions and, review of readily available engineering/construction estimation manuals/documents as well as from technical knowledge and/or experience of engineering, building and other professionals participating in the overall planning process. Potential loss values were based upon documentation pertaining to municipal, land values, population density information as well as from cost estimates incurred from prior incidents. Projects were determined to be “not feasible” when estimated losses were significantly below the estimated project costs. With regard to prioritization, the City of Elizabeth Planning Committee anticipates that projects will be implemented based on the availability of resources and findings of cost/benefit analysis, as appropriate. In particular, cost/benefit analysis will be the guiding element for grant funded projects as that is an essential component of funding through programs such as FEMA and HMGP. Although prioritization has been considered, the MAP included in this Plan should be regarded as a comprehensive listing of projects which may be pursued simultaneously as resources are available. This perspective is cognizant of the fact that the listed projects call for diverse actions and may not be competing for the same types of funds or may involve internal re-organization or program integration, which do not require accessing external funding sources. As such, a project with a lower risk priority but with limited funding requirements may proceed prior to a project with a higher risk priority that lacks a viable funding source or local match.

Again, it is important to note that these mitigation actions are specific measures to be undertaken by the City. It is expected that this component of the Plan will be the most dynamic as it will be used as the primary indicator to measure the Plan’s progress over time. As outlined in Section 9, the mitigation actions set forth in this Plan will be routinely updated and/or revised based on the completion of actions/projects and changing natural conditions in the City of Elizabeth Planning Area.

Table 8-5 Mitigation Action Matrix below presents an all-inclusive matrix recognizing all mitigation actions presented by the City as well as the action identification number, the action issue, the action area, the mitigation technique category, if the action is related to new or existing structures, specific hazard, action priority, lead agency responsible for implementation, and an estimated cost for the action. It should be noted that the estimated cost for the project/action is a bulk summary cost. Many of the identified actions will be divided up into phases such that the amount requested through grant programs will be less than that identified as the total cost of the project/action. Please note, the action identification numbers may not be in order from highest to lowest priority. Some City departments felt the need to have discretion of implementation for an action based on the necessity to implement an action at any given time and funding resources which may become available. As such, the identification numbers are not intentionally listed by priority ranking.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 101 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Table 8-5 Mitigation Action Matrix

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Dowd Avenue Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #1 Existing Yes ~25 Million Pump Station Specific Wastewater hurricane; Ranked City Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering

Trumbull Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Avenue Structural Mitigation; Area Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #2 Stormwater Stormwater and Existing Yes ~30 Million Specific hurricane; Ranked City Management Wastewater Thunderstorms Engineering Project Policies/Projects

Monmouth Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Road Flood Structural Mitigation; Area Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #3 Control Stormwater and Existing Yes ~3 Million Specific hurricane; Ranked City (JMEUC Wastewater Thunderstorms Engineering Issues) Policies/Projects

Flood Mitigation Project; Park Avenue Flooding, Coastal Department of Structural Mitigation; and Summit Area Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #4 Stormwater and Existing #4 Yes ~4 Million Road Flood Specific hurricane; City Wastewater Control Thunderstorms Engineering Policies/Projects

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 102 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Maple Structural Mitigation; Area Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #5 Avenue/Route Stormwater and Existing Yes ~3 Million Specific hurricane; Ranked City 1&9 Flooding Wastewater Thunderstorms Engineering Policies/Projects

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Route 1&9 Structural Mitigation; Area Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #6 Flooding/Railr Stormwater and Existing Yes ~3 Million Specific hurricane; Ranked City oad Flooding Wastewater Thunderstorms Engineering Policies/Projects

Existing

Partial Sewer Separation Cherry Completed, Has Street/West Flood Mitigation Project; reduced amount Jersey Sewer Flooding, Coastal Department of Structural Mitigation; of maintenance Separation/Pu Area Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #7 Stormwater and required for #8 Yes ~4 Million mp Station Specific hurricane; City Wastewater Pump Station. Upgrades and Thunderstorms Engineering Policies/Projects Additional Generator upgrades still Installation needed.

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 103 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Structural Mitigation; Urisno Dam Area Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #8 Stormwater and Existing Yes ~1 Million Repairs Specific hurricane; Ranked City Wastewater Thunderstorms Engineering Policies/Projects

Existing

On-going Portable Flood Mitigation Project; Generators Structural Mitigation; Have been Flooding, Coastal Department of and Transfer Area Stormwater and installing Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #9 Yes ~.5 Million Switches at Specific Wastewater generator hurricane; Ranked City Key Traffic Policies/Projects connections on Thunderstorms Engineering Signals all new signal installations, have not needed to use them yet

Existing

On-going Flood Mitigation Project; Miscellaneous Structural Mitigation; Replaced Generators Stormwater and generator at Flooding, Coastal Department of and Electrical Area Police HQs Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #10 Wastewater Yes ~6 Million Upgrades at Specific Policies/Projects; Supply of (HMGP) hurricane; Ranked City Critical Thunderstorms Engineering Fuel Installed Facilities generators at four (4) community/recre ation centers.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 104 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

Extreme Heat Education and Department of Area Education and Outreach; Not Public Works/ #11 Awareness Existing Extreme Heat No ~$100,000 Outreach Specific Training Ranked City Engineering

Department of Earthquake Area Education and Outreach; Not Public Works/ #12 Awareness Existing Earthquakes No ~$100,000 Wide Training Ranked City Outreach Engineering

Third Avenue Flood Mitigation Project; Existing Flooding, Coastal Department of and Atlantic Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #13 #2 Yes ~8 Million Street Flood Specific Wastewater Project is in hurricane; City Control Policies/Projects design phase Thunderstorms Engineering

Flood Mitigation Project; Existing South Second Stormwater and Flooding, Coastal Department of Pump Station Wastewater Station is now Area Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #14 and Flood Policies/Projects. operational, #1 Yes ~4 Million Specific hurricane; City Control with upgrades and Thunderstorms Engineering Generator generator in design phase

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 105 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Atlanta Plaza Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #15 Existing Yes ~30 Million Floodwall Specific Wastewater hurricane; Ranked City Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering

South Street Flood Mitigation Project; Under Flooding, Coastal Department of Pump Station Area Stormwater and Construction to Storms, Nor’easter, Formerly Public Works/ #16 Yes ~6 Million and Flood Specific Wastewater be completed in hurricane; #3 City Control Policies/Projects 2020 Thunderstorms Engineering

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Bayway Area Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #17 Sewer Existing No ~6 Million Specific Wastewater hurricane; Ranked City Separation Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering

Flood Mitigation Project; Under Flooding, Coastal Department of Trumbull and Area Stormwater and Construction to Storms, Nor’easter, Formerly Public Works/ #18 6th Streets Yes ~5 Million Specific Wastewater be completed in hurricane; #1 City Flood Control Policies/Projects 2020 Thunderstorms Engineering

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 106 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Flooding, Coastal Department of Broad Street Area Flood Mitigation Project; Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #19 Firehouse Existing No ~7 Million Specific Flood Proofing Firehouse hurricane; Ranked City Engine #1 Thunderstorms Engineering

Kapkowski Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Road Pump Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #20 Station with Existing #9 Yes ~2 Million Specific Wastewater hurricane; City upgrades and Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering Generator

Trenton Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Avenue Pump Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #21 Station with Existing #7 Yes ~10 Million Specific Wastewater hurricane; City upgrades and Policies/Projects Project Thunderstorms Engineering Generator

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Trenton Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, See ID Public Works/ #22 Avenue Existing Yes ~.75 Million Specific Wastewater hurricane; #21 City Generator Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering

Existing

Electric system Mattano Park Flood Mitigation Project; replaced after Flooding, Coastal Department of Pump Station Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #23 Sandy and flood #6 Yes ~.75 Million with upgrades Specific Wastewater proofing hurricane; City and Generator Policies/Projects constructed. Still Thunderstorms Engineering needs a generator.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 107 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

ID # Action or Action Estimated Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

Decker Existing Avenue Storm Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Area Stormwater and This is part of Storms, Nor’easter, See ID Public Works/ #24 Sewer Yes ~2 Million (Backups) Specific Wastewater the Lincoln hurricane; #32 City Policies/Projects Avenue Project Thunderstorms Engineering which is in design

Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Pennington Area Stormwater and Storms, Nor’easter, Not Public Works/ #25 Street Sewer Existing Yes ~2 Million Specific Wastewater hurricane; Ranked City Surcharge Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering

Marina Fueling emergency Department of Generator and public vehicles to Area Respond to fueling public Not Public Works/ #26 Emergency Existing respond to site in the Yes ~.5 Million Specific vehicles Ranked City Fueling case of an Engineering Station emergency

Existing

On-going Flooding, Coastal Department of Maintain and upgrade the Area Maintenance, Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #27 Levee Project levee for flood water #5 Yes ~20 Million Specific repairs and Hurricane; City management. improvements Thunderstorms Engineering are being made on a continuous basis.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 108 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

Action or Action Estimated ID # Category New or Existing Specific Hazard(s) Priority NFIP* Lead Agency Issue Area Cost

Site wide Notify the Public of Department of Emergency Area Hazardous and Public Works/ #28 Public Notification Existing #10 No ~.5 Million Overhead Specific locations of Muster City Signs Points Engineering

Transfer main Department of Site wide Area electrical power to Not Public Works/ #29 Solar Power Public Notification Existing No ~.5 Million Wide solar for continuous Ranked City Disconnects electricity Engineering

Department of Infectious Notify the public of Area Not Public Works/ #30 Disease Public Notification Existing critical stations to No ~$100,000 Wide Ranked City Control receive vaccinations. Engineering

Department of New Fire Area Improve Emergency Not Public Works/ #31 House Flood Mitigation Project Existing No ~6 Million Specific Response Ranked City Construction Engineering

Lincoln Flood Mitigation Project; Flooding, Coastal Department of Avenue Area Stormwater and Existing Storms, Nor’easter, Public Works/ #32 Stormwater #3 Yes ~3.5 Million Specific Wastewater hurricane; City Drainage In design Policies/Projects Thunderstorms Engineering Improvements

NFIP* - Mitigation actions which relate to the continued compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 109 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

8.4.1 MAP and NFIP Compliance

Mitigation actions identified in this Section include strategies to identify and analyze actions related to continued compliance with the NFIP. As previously discussed in Section 6, the City of Elizabeth has been a participant in the NFIP since May 1970 and has adopted and enforced floodplain management ordinances to reduce future flood damage. All new construction or redevelopment must meet these ordinances requirements and provide documentation of such prior to Municipal approval. However, several areas of the City are still affected by flooding because of development which preceded the NFIP guidance.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 110 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 9 Plan Maintenance Procedures

In accordance with 44 CFR Part 201.6 (c)(4)(i), this Section describes how the City of Elizabeth will implement, evaluate and enhance the Plan over time. This Section also will discuss how the participating entities and the public will continue to be involved with pre-disaster mitigation planning. The three following subsections are provided to fully meet the requirements related to Plan maintenance: 44 CFR Part 201.6 (c) (4) (i) states that the Plan shall set · Implementation forth a maintenance process · Evaluation, Monitoring and Enhancement describing the method and · Public Involvement schedule of monitoring, evaluating and updating the A brief discussion on integrating the Plan into other Planning mitigation plan within a five- year cycle. Mechanisms is also provided in this Section.

9.1 Implementation

Mitigation objectives and actions derived through this Planning Process are described in Section 8 of this Plan. These objectives and actions were organized on a City department basis such that each department has the ability to update individual mitigation strategies without altering the broader focus of the Plan. Further, under this approach Elizabeth has the authority and responsibility to expand objectives and to implement procedures, as appropriate, beyond those specified herein. Also, the City and its departments will take on the responsibility of integrating their objectives and actions into other municipal plans, where appropriate.

Each department will have the responsibility of integrating requirements of this Plan into other local planning documents and processes including Master Plans, Strategic Plans, Capital Improvement Plans, Continuity of Operations Plans, Ordinances/Resolutions/Regulations. For example, if a mitigation goal for the City included a reduction in building density along the Flowing River, the City planner would review zoning designations along the Flowing River in future master plan updates. It should be noted that this Plan does not set forth a regulatory obligation or mandate any update or review of existing municipal plans or processes but does convey information which would be useful for the City to incorporate, as appropriate and feasible. Opportunities for the City to integrate the requirements of this Plan into other local planning documents/processes will continue to be identified as part of the Plan review process.

The designated members of the Planning Committee will take on the lead role in each department for informing their departments of the Plan’s goals and objectives such that updates and changes to municipal plans and processes do not contribute to increased hazard vulnerability in the City.

9.2 City of Elizabeth Planning Committee

The Planning Committee shall remain an active and viable entity to oversee the Plan’s progress. The Planning Committee is comprised of individuals with mixed academic and professional knowledge and skills which has resulted in a well-rounded and comprehensive Plan. As such, the Committee shall make an effort to retain this multi-disciplined perspective going forward. During each update to the Plan, the Committee shall continue to involve the community and all local/regional stakeholders with their input.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 111 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 As current mitigation projects are completed, the Planning Committee may begin a community process where by they will engage the public for comments in developing new mitigation projects that would qualify for FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance. How-To Guide #9 (FEMA 386-9) shows how a community can move from the hazard mitigation plan to developing mitigation projects. This Guide explains the process of developing the scope of a project, identifies the key components of a successful mitigation project funding application, and describes how to identify funding available through FEMA. This Guide explains how valuable information in the mitigation plan can be used to develop the project scope of work and how to use lessons learned through the implementation of mitigation projects to improve the mitigation plan when it is updated.

9.3 Evaluation, Monitoring, and Enhancement

An essential component of any mitigation planning is the development of a viable process and method to evaluate, monitor and enhance the Plan. It is also essential to document the established process throughout the required five-year cycle. The periodic review, revision and update as necessary will ensure that the Plan reflects current information and continues to meet the future goals of the City. As part of the planning process, the Planning Committee discusses and evaluates various methods to ensure Plan maintenance and updates. The frequency of Plan updates, Committee Plan reviews and meetings will be dependent on priority projects and schedules. These discussions, meetings and actions will form the basis for the Plan’s continuing maintenance strategy.

At a minimum, the Plan will be reviewed, updated and submitted to the New Jersey State Hazard Mitigation Officer every five-years in accordance with 44 CFR, Section 201.6. The update cycle will be based upon the date of adoption of the initial Plan and will commence on the fourth anniversary of the Plan adoption date to ensure that the revised Plan will be approved within the five-year cycle. As described below, the Planning Committee has established an annual informal review process within the five-year cycle, thus, the timely review of the Plan will be coordinated as part of the continual informal review process. The Planning Committee has determined that an informal review should occur at least once a year such that the Plan reflects current conditions and identifies new issues. The primary focus of the annual review will be to evaluate progress of the Plan and to identify the occurrence of hazard events during the year. The Planning Committee discussed various methods to create a format for the annual review and five year update of the Plan. In particular, the Committee reviewed FEMA guidance worksheets 1-5 included in Bringing the Plan to Life, Implementing the Hazard Mitigation Plan, FEMA 386-4, August 2003 and utilized these worksheets as a basis for discussion on the Plan update, review and monitoring process. As a result of the discussions, the Planning Committee determined that the Plan review and evaluation will include the following:

· Identification of any changes in State or Federal regulations, including in particular, any modification to FEMA rules and guidance that could impact elements of the Plan and future funding;

· Identification of any natural hazard events which occurred during the past 3-4 years;

· Discussion of the impact(s) and lessions learned of any recent (generally occurring within the review year) hazard events in the City of Elizabeth Planning Area;

· Review of proposed and completed mitigation measures identified in the Plan;

· Evaluation of the success of completed mitigation measures identified in the Plan;

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 112 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 · Identification of any identified mitigation measures which should be added or removed from the Plan or any measures which should be substantially modified in terms of scope or importance as compared to that which was provided in the Plan;

· Identification or modification of funding options for mitigation measures;

· Identification of any changes in GIS or data acquisition and management technologies that would be useful or meaningful in Plan updates; and,

· Identification of any new Planning members or stakeholders that should be included in the Planning Process.

Also, as stated in Section 3, the Planning Committee wishes to obtain input from stakeholder groups including but not limited to utility and transportation authorities/companies as well as from adjoining municipalities and counties as part of the Plan maintenance and update efforts.

The Committee members will take on the responsibility of evaluating the Plan within the context of their individual departments. As discussed in Section 6 – Vulnerability Assessment, it is possible to provide department-specific inputs in the assessment modeling. The initial assessment efforts set forth in this Plan utilized standardized input values made available as part of the modeling system. As part of the Plan maintenance procedures, the Planning Committee will determine the cost effectiveness and technical feasibility of utilizing department-specific inputs in the updated Plan.

As part of Plan maintenance, each City departments may prepare Progress Report(s) as needed and document actions taken on any of the mitigation measures included in the Plan. The Progress Report used in the Plan maintenance procedure will be based on the Progress Report format provided in Worksheet #1 included in FEMA 386-4, August 2003. However, the collection of relevant project information is considered the paramount goal of the Progress Report and, as such the Committee is amenable to modifying the Progress Report format, as needed. In addition, each member of the Planning Committee will forward a copy of generated Progress Reports to the Planning Committee Chairperson such that the documents can be retained with the most current copy of the Plan. Each Planning Committee member was provided with blank copies of the Progress Report worksheet in October 2014 for their use in updating individual actions undertaken by their department. However, Progress Report worksheets will be forwarded to each Planning Committee member six weeks before the scheduled annual meeting and completed worksheets will be forwarded to the Planning Committee Chairman one week before the annual meeting. The Planning Committee member from each City department will have the responsibility of ensuring that all completed mitigation actions are documented in a Progress Report and that the completed Reports are provided to the Planning Committee Chairman one week (or earlier) before the annual review meeting. The Planning Committee will review the Progress Reports as part of the annual meeting to determine if modifications are required for the Plan and provide input on such changes during the meeting. The Progress Reports for all departments will be compiled for inclusion in the Plan update.

The Planning Committee will prepare minutes documenting annual meetings and any updates, revisions or deletions to the Plan. A copy of the minutes will be distributed to each member of the Committee and the Chairman will retain a copy along with other updated documentation such as Progress Reports along with the most current version of the Plan.

In addition, the Planning Committee has determined that it will convene for the purposes of discussion within 60 days following a major disaster warranting a Presidential Disaster Declaration for the City or the County. As appropriate, the Chairman of the City of Elizabeth Planning Committee will have the ability to convene a work-session following the occurrence of a smaller disaster event, which has impacted the City or the County. As described above, the Planning Committee will prepare minutes documenting post- disaster meetings and noting any required modification to the Plan as a result of the disaster. A copy of the

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 113 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 minutes will be distributed to each member of the Committee and the Chairman will retain a copy along with other updated documentation such as Progress Reports along with the most current version of the Plan.

9.4 Public Involvement

Progress Reports will be maintained by the Planning Committee and Planning Committee members will be responsible for providing updated information to their governing departments. Five year updates to the Plan is contracted out and then maintained by the City to ensure completeness. With respect to providing public information, the Planning Committee will determine the appropriateness of information to be dissemination to the public but the Plan will be accessible to the public via a City webpage (https://www.elizabethnj.org/DocumentCenter/View/202/Hazard-Mitigation-Plan-with-Appendices-PDF). The public notification process may include one or more of the following methods: presentation/discussion during Council or Board meetings; presentation/discussion during public meetings; posting of information on municipal websites; issuance of a press release; and/or, issuance of documents for review at local venues (e.g., library, municipal building).

As stated above, the City will review, revise (as necessary) and resubmit the Plan for approval every five (5) years to remain eligible pursuant to DMA. As described above, the Planning Committee will continue to inform the public of any changes to the Plan. With respect to the full five-year review, the Planning Committee will discuss public involvement strategy at the onset of the review process. The strategy will be based upon the needs and capabilities of the City at the time of the update. At a minimum, the City will take the lead in providing public notification of the Plan update process, and will post notice of the proposed Plan renewal on its website and on a bulletin board at a designated location in a City building, assumed to be City Hall. Also, the City will post similar notice on either (or both) an electronic (website) bulletin board or at one or more locations within the municipal building and library. The notice will provide the location where copies of the Plan can be obtained (at City Hall) and will clearly identify one or more methods for the public to provide input/comment and to suggest updates and/or modifications to the Plan. The notice will request the submission of comments to the Director of Public Works for the City of Elizabeth, which will record, address and file all public comments. The Planning Committee Chair will notify the public of the completion of the Plan review process via the issuance of a second public notice using the same media outlets (websites and posting of notice at designated public facilities). After the Plan review process has been completed, copies of the full revised Plan will be made available through the City library system and on the City’s website to allow the public an opportunity to review and comment.

9.5 Integration of the Plan into Planning Mechanisms

The City of Elizabeth Planning Committee has provided the best information on hazard, hazard events, risk and vulnerability assessment and mitigation measures which was readily available during the Plan preparation. Thus, the information contained herein represents a useful source of information and a planning tool for other City planning processes including capital improvement budgeting and planning, utility master planning, zoning/growth management, mapping (including GIS) and critical areas/open space management. The City maintains a variety of local planning documents and mechanisms based upon individual local needs and governmental organization. The City maintains both a Master Plan and an Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). As such, these two planning documents represent the most appropriate local planning mechanisms for incorporation of the requirements of the Plan. Once this Plan has been approved, the City will evaluate the aspects of the Plan which may be appropriate for inclusion in EOPs. Further, according to Municipal Land Use Law, each municipality in New Jersey is required to re-examine its Master Plan and development regulations at least once every ten years. The City has updated their Land Use Plan Element of the Master Plan in 2016. Thus, the incorporation of applicable pre-disaster mitigation

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 114 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201 tasks, actions and requirements can be incorporated during individual re-examination periods oe as needed. 10 Plan Adoption

The City will adopt the Updated Plan in accordance with 44 CFR Part 201.6 (c)(4)(i). After considerable effort, the City of Elizabeth Planning Committee has completed a Final Updated version of the City of Elizabeth Hazard Mitigation Plan ready for submission to the NJ-OEM and FEMA. The following entities provided comment to the 2020 Draft Plan Update: Name TBD, New Jersey State Hazard Mitigation Officer of the Preparedness and Mitigation Unit, Name TBD, FEMA Region II Hazard Mitigation Planner and Name TBDol (QA/QC), Name TBD FEMA Region II Hazard Mitigation Planner.

The Committee addressed the comments provided by NJ OEM and FEMA Region II in this updated document to the extent practical. In those instances where requested information was not available, the Committee has determined that further revision will be considered and may be included in future updates of the Plan.

Upon completion of the revisions to the Final Draft Plan Update, a copy of the adopting resolution will placed in Appendix A.

507380120 – February 2020 Mott MacDonald | City of Elizabeth 115 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan (2020 Update – Final Draft) DPW City Hall - Winfield Scott Plaza Elizabeth, NJ 07201

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507380120 – February 2020