WASHINGTON POLICY | PUBLISHED BY RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES Ed Mills | (202) 872-5933 |
[email protected] SEPTEMBER 21, 2020 | 12:01 AM EDT Chris Meekins | (703) 351-5294 |
[email protected] Alex Anderson, Sr. Res. Assoc. | (202) 872-5936 |
[email protected] Supreme Court After Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Market, Policy, and Political Impact The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg leaves a late-presidential election-year Supreme Court vacancy and may significantly shift the electoral landscape 44 days out from the November elections. In the attached slides, we provide an outline of how the process works, a deep-dive outline of the political battle ahead on the nomination/ confirmation of a new justice, the potential timing of the nomination, the impact on the Presidential/key Senate races, the impact on key upcoming cases including the Affordable Care Act case, and the potential future impact on the Supreme Court/Senate. Our view on the near-term confirmation battle. President Trump is likely to nominate someone to fill the seat. We believe the Senate is likely to move forward with confirmation hearings, but will wait to vote until after the election in the “lame-duck” session. However, with the evolving nature of this, these views could change rapidly. Impact on the Presidential race. The impact on the presidential race is unclear at this point and will take time to play out. The eventual Trump Supreme Court nominee, the hearing process, Democrats' response, and wild cards along the way will ultimately shape the political impact. We are within two months of Election Day and some votes have already been cast.