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Landesbank Berlin AG 19 December 2019 Update to Credit Analysis

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Landesbank Berlin AG 19 December 2019 Update to Credit Analysis FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION Landesbank Berlin AG 19 December 2019 Update to credit analysis Update Summary On 23 October, we lowered Germany's Macro Profile to Strong+ from Very Strong-. As a result of Landesbank Berlin AG's (LBB) clear focus on the domestic market, the bank's Weighted Macro Profile was also lowered to Strong+ from Very Strong-. The bank's Aa2(stable)/P-1 deposit and issuer ratings were unaffected by the change of the Macro RATINGS Profile. Similarly, its baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), a3 Adjusted BCA, and A2 junior Landesbank Berlin AG senior unsecured debt rating, as well as its Aa2/P-1 Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRR) remained Domicile Berlin, Germany unaffected. Long Term CRR Aa2 Type LT Counterparty Risk The ratings reflect (1) the bank's baa2 BCA; (2) its a3 Adjusted BCA, based on Very High Rating - Fgn Curr 1 Outlook Not Assigned affiliate support from Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe (S-Group, Aa2 negative, a2 ); (3) the results Long Term Debt Withdrawn of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which provides three notches of rating Type Senior Unsecured - uplift for deposits and issuer ratings; and (4) our assumptions of Moderate support from the Dom Curr 2 Outlook Rating(s) WithDrawn Government of Germany (Aaa stable ) for deposits and issuer ratings, yielding one notch of Long Term Deposit Aa2 rating uplift. Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr LBB's baa2 BCA is underpinned by the bank's comfortable funding position and strengthened Outlook Stable capitalisation, while it is restrained by a comparatively weaker asset profile, as a result of substantial commercial real estate (CRE) exposures. In addition, LBB's role within Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown Erwerbsgesellschaft der S-Finanzgruppe mbH & Co. KG (SEG) and, in particular, the weaker reflect information as of the publication date. standalone credit profile of the bank's sister company Berlin Hyp AG (Berlin Hyp, Aa2/Aa2 stable, ba13) constrain LBB's BCA. While direct financial links between LBB and Berlin Hyp are limited, the close links within the group, via profit and loss transfer agreements (PLTA), result Contacts in meaningful risk correlation between the two key subsidiaries of SEG. Goetz Thurm, CFA +49.69.70730.773 VP-Senior Analyst Exhibit 1 [email protected] Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios LBB (BCA: baa2) Median baa2-rated banks Alexander Hendricks, +49.69.70730.779 18% 50% 16% CFA 40% 14% FactorsLiquidity Associate Managing Director 12% 30% [email protected] 10% 8% 20% 6% Maryna Harbal +49.69.70730.962 4% 1.9% 10% 2% 16.6% 0.2% 15.1% 43.0% Associate Analyst FactorsSolvency 0% 0% [email protected] Asset Risk: Capital: Profitability: Funding Structure: Liquid Resources: Problem Loans/ Tangible Common Net Income/ Market Funds/ Liquid Banking Gross Loans Equity/Risk-Weighted Tangible Assets Tangible Banking Assets/Tangible Assets Assets Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Source: Moody's Investors Service MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Credit strengths » Adequate risk-adjusted capitalisation levels, providing a sufficient buffer to regulatory minimum requirements » Improved asset quality in the currently benign operating environment » Solid liquidity profile, supported by strong access to customer deposits and significant liquid resources Credit challenges » Substantial CRE exposures, exposing the bank to tail risks from dislocations in CRE markets » Geographical concentration in the Berlin-Brandenburg region » Close contractual links within the SEG group, which constrain LBB's credit profile Outlook » The outlook on LBB's Aa2 deposit and issuer ratings is stable, reflecting our expectation that (1) the combined credit profile of LBB and Berlin Hyp, as reflected in the consolidated accounts of both banks' ultimate parent SEG, will stay broadly stable over the rating outlook horizon; and (2) the liability structure of SEG will stay stable, which forms the basis for our Advanced LGF analysis, reflecting our assumption of a common resolution perimeter for LBB and Berlin Hyp. Factors that could lead to an upgrade » An upgrade of LBB's ratings will be subject to an uplift of its baa2 BCA and a3 Adjusted BCA, in combination with an improvement in the overall creditworthiness of S-Group. In addition, an upgrade of the bank's junior senior unsecured debt rating could be driven by an improved result from our Advanced LGF analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by the different liability classes in resolution at the level of SEG. » Upward pressure on LBB's baa2 BCA could develop as a result of an additional strengthening of the combined credit profile of LBB and Berlin Hyp, as reflected in the consolidated SEG accounts. Furthermore, a revision of the currently applicable profit and loss transfer arrangements, as part of a reorganisation of SEG, and the associated reduction in risk correlations between LBB and Berlin Hyp, could potentially lead to a reassessment of the currently applicable rating constraint, prompting upward pressure on LBB's BCA. However, in such a scenario, we would also have to reassess our assumption of a common resolution perimeter for LBB and Berlin Hyp, which could result in a lower LGF uplift for LBB if we applied a standalone resolution perimeter. » Upward pressure on the junior senior unsecured debt rating could develop if sufficient amounts of subordinated or junior senior unsecured debt were to be issued by LBB or Berlin Hyp, or both, which would provide an additional buffer or lower the loss severity for junior senior debt at the consolidated level of SEG. » Deposits and the issuer rating, as well as counterparty liabilities, already benefit from the maximum of three notches of uplift from our Advanced LGF analysis and, hence, can only be upgraded if LBB's Adjusted BCA is upgraded. Factors that could lead to a downgrade » A downgrade of LBB's ratings will be subject to a lowering of its a3 Adjusted BCA. In addition, changes in SEG's liability structure, resulting in higher loss-given-failure in resolution and therefore fewer notches in rating uplift derived from our Advanced LGF analysis, could negatively affect the ratings. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 19 December 2019 Landesbank Berlin AG: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS » Downward pressure on LBB's a3 Adjusted BCA could develop from significant weakening of LBB's and Berlin Hyp's financial fundamentals to the extent that the combined credit strength of SEG was adversely affected, particularly if higher asset risks at both banks depleted the group's capital resources. A mild deterioration in both entities' credit profiles could be offset by additional cross- sector support. Further, lower creditworthiness of S-Group or a lowering of our Very High sector support assumptions, although unlikely, could trigger downward rating pressure. Key indicators Exhibit 2 Landesbank Berlin AG (Consolidated Financials) [1] 06-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 CAGR/Avg.3 Total Assets (EUR Billion) 47.0 43.1 44.8 45.9 47.5 (0.3)4 Total Assets (USD Billion) 53.5 49.2 53.8 48.4 51.6 1.04 Tangible Common Equity (EUR Billion) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.84 Tangible Common Equity (USD Billion) 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.3 3.24 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) -- 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.15 Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 16.6 16.8 17.8 18.1 17.4 17.36 Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) -- 12.3 12.9 15.8 17.6 14.65 Net Interest Margin (%) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.65 PPI / Average RWA (%) 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.96 Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.25 Cost / Income Ratio (%) 91.1 87.9 85.3 87.8 94.3 89.35 Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 23.4 15.1 18.1 20.8 29.1 21.35 Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 45.1 43.0 47.4 52.1 56.9 48.95 Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) -- 78.3 74.6 66.8 64.8 71.15 [1]All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2]Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP. [3]May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts. [4]Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime. [5]Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6]Simple average of Basel III periods presented. Source: Moody's Investors Service; Company Filings Profile LBB is a German public sector bank that provides retail banking, corporate banking, and real estate financing services in the Berlin- Brandenburg region. In addition to its local mandate, LBB's remit on a national scale encompasses the provision of certain services for S-Group in the areas of consumer finance, auto loans and credit cards. As of June 2019, the bank reported total assets of €47.0 billion and employed 3,196 staff. LBB and its sister company, CRE lender Berlin Hyp, are set up under SEG umbrella and are closely tied via a PLTA agreement with Landesbank Berlin Holding AG (LBBH), a holding entity, which is fully owned by SEG.
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