Education Budget Brief 2020 Tanzania

Photography: © Julie Pudlowski © Julie Photography:

MAINLAND EDUCATION BUDGET BRIEF 2020 TANZANIA

KEY MESSAGES

The education sector was explicitly Tanzania continues to put much effort allocated TSh 4.51 trillion in FY 2019/20 on capital investment, particularly on compared to TSh 4.64 trillion in FY 2018/19, the construction of schools, to keep which marks a decline of 2.8 per cent in pace with the increase in enrolment. nominal terms. The sector allocation takes Currently, student classroom ratios are 1 up 13.6 per cent of the total budget in classroom per 76 primary students and FY 2019/20 down from 14.8 per cent in 1 per 40 secondary students. International FY 2017/18 (including Consolidated Fund best practice points to a maximum of Services (CFS). Given the population 30 children per classroom. A balanced growth in the country and shortage of investment approach on both recurrent and teachers in basic education, Tanzania development components are crucial to has long term plan towards achievement ensure the successful implementation of of the Education for All (EFA) target, of the Primary Teacher Deployment Strategy, committing 20 per cent of its national and the construction of classrooms in budget to education. hard-to-reach areas.

1 Overall budget execution in the the sources of fi nancing. Improved education sector was good. The total operationalization of IFMIS and FFARS1 education budget execution rate stood at will help to address challenges with the 87.2 per cent in 2018/19, with the recurrent quality of data, and also help to enhance expenditure at 96.4 per cent and internally the monitoring and reporting systems at fi nanced development expenditure at the LGA level. 90.8 per cent. There was, however, room for improvement in respect of externally The Education Sector Development Plan fi nanced development expenditure (ESDP) between 2016/17 and 2020/21 which stood at 65.9 per cent. The low has a comprehensive costing plan setting execution rate for the externally fi nanced out the requirements for annual fi nancial development budget was also observed resources. The total cost of ESDP was in FY 2017/18. It is recommended to estimated at TSh 26.2 trillion including work with DPs to identify the reasons TSh 19.1 trillion for recurrent expenditure for delayed or non-disbursement of their and TSh 7.1 trillion for development committed funds to improve budget expenditure. However, since FY 2018/19, predictability for projects fi nanced by funding gaps have signifi cantly increased development partners (DP). for the fi nal two years of the ESDP. It is strongly recommended that the fi scal Due to data challenges in relation to envelope for education be reconsidered LGA functioning, it was not possible so that the ESDP may receive adequate to capture important dimensions of funding to achieve its objectives education spending at this level, including as emphasized in the government expenditure trends, spending by commitment with Global Partnership for programme areas, budget execution, Education (GPE). equity in resource distribution and

1. INTRODUCTION 2. STATUS OF THE EDUCATION This Education budget brief update explores the extent to which the Mainland Tanzania SECTOR budget addresses the needs of children aged under 18 years. It analyses the size Indicators for the education sector and composition of budget allocations for suggest that a lot of progress has been fi scal year 2019/20 and offers insights into made because of signifi cant investments the effi ciency, equity and adequacy of past from the Government of Tanzania (GoT) spending on education. The main objective and development partners (DPs), but of the brief is fi rstly to synthesize complex challenges still remain. In December 2015, budget information so that it can be easily the GoT introduced the Fee Free Basic understood by all stakeholders and secondly Education (FFBE) Policy which envisages fee to put forth key messages which can free basic education from the pre-primary up inform policy and budget decision-making to the lower-secondary school level, which processes.

1 IFMIS and FFARS are MIS tools used to manage budget data at the LGA and budget recipients’ levels.

2 is an indicator of impressive progress in better performing and more motivated removing a critical barrier in accessing basic teaching force.” (ESDP from 2016/17 to education. However, this sector still faces 2020/21). some issues such as the shortage of teachers and classrooms, as well as inequality in Two GoT ministries hold most responsibilities access to educational services. For instance, for the education sector on the Mainland accounting to BEST 2018, pupil classroom Tanzania. The Ministry of Education, Science ratios are 1 to 76 for primary school pupils and Technology (MoEST) is responsible for and 1 to 40 for secondary. According to policy formulation, planning, monitoring and international best practice there should be evaluation of basic, technical, vocational, folk, a maximum of 30 children per classroom for non-formal, and higher education. Through primary and lower secondary. its parastatals MoEST is also responsible for the implementation of technical and Education sector reform is guided by vocational education and training (TVET) the Education Sector Development Plan and higher education (HE). The President’s (ESDP) from 2016/17 to 2020/21, which is Offi ce–Regional Administration and Local synchronized with the current Five-Year Government (PO-RALG) coordinates the Development Plan (FYDP). The ESDP has been administration, delivery and management of developed in cognizance of the African Union pre-primary, primary and secondary education Agenda 2063 and the related Continental through a decentralized system involving 185 Education Strategy for Africa (2016–2025) as local government authorities (LGAs) in the well as the Sustainable Development Goals 26 regions of the Mainland Tanzania. The PO- (SDGs). The ESDP aims to ensure that the RALG also oversees teacher deployment. The entire education sector and all activities within LGAs provide supervision for schools through it are focused on the overarching goal of regional, district and ward level education improving learning outcomes and acquisition offi cers and quality assurance offi cers. of relevant skills. A key policy initiative that distinguishes this ESDP from previous In 2017, the GoT adopted the Primary plans is Tanzania’s commitment to providing Teacher Deployment Strategy and the twelve years of free Basic Education to the National Framework for Continuous entire population (FYDP 2016/17 - 2020/21). Professional Development for Practicing In addition, supporting free basic education Teachers (NFCPDPT, 2017) to address and higher education programmes are among shortage of teachers and improving teacher the priority areas of the GoT. competencies in the country.

The ESDP specifi cally aims for equity Since 2016, as part of its economic through “Ensuring [that] out-of-school transformation and industrialization policy, children, illiterate youth and adults and other the government has been implementing vulnerable groups can access quality learning several fl agship projects, which impact opportunities and thus obtain knowledge the education sector, both directly and and vocational skills”. The strategic focus of indirectly. For instance, the construction of the ESDP is to improve quality at all levels of the hydroelectric power project at Rufi ji River learning. As such, the ESDP aims to improve and the rural electrifi cation project-phase the education sector through “purposive III will play a critical role in enhancing the reform” and coordinated activities including infrastructure facilities of schools and enable the achievement of “a properly managed, households in rural areas to access electricity.

3 Furthermore, it is important to emphasize the the rates of children out of school aged 7-13 critical role of the Productive Social Safety Net years (primary school ages). For instance, Programme (PSSN), implemented by the GoT high percentages were observed in Tabora in addressing poverty and enabling access to (44.3 per cent), Katavi (42.5 per cent), Geita education (and other essential social services) (37.8 per cent), and Rukwa (35.5 per cent). for low-income families. PSSN phase I has Distance from school was identifi ed as one of been completed successfully, and Phase II the major reasons preventing children from was launched in early 2020. enrolling. In an out-of-school children (OOSC) study of seven regions, many children of pre- Tanzania has achieved a signifi cant increase primary and standard I school going age were in enrolment at the pre-primary and still at home because they were not able to primary levels. As an illustration of the pre- walk long distances to and from school. In primary defi cit of pupils, in 2017, just over some districts school children were expected 1.5 million were enrolled in pre-primary against to cover more than six kilometres per day. 8.9 million enrolled in primary grades. Most The fi ndings revealed that some children students at the pre-primary education in pastoral communities, for instance, had level are enrolled in public primary schools to walk for more than three hours in order (95 per cent). Pre-primary enrolment has to reach their schools, which affected their increased in absolute terms from 1,034,729 interest in going there. Being out of school is pupils in 2012 to 1,562,770 in 2016 and is a common challenge for those children living projected to grow to 1,738,843 students by in hard-to-reach areas. Introducing a school 2021. However, there is still a large number transportation programme (school buses) of over-age and a small number of underage can partially address accessibility issues in children enrolled in pre-primary. those areas.

Another persisting challenge is the high In addition, cattle care is also another major number of children still out of school. There are reason for children being kept out of school, huge variances among the regions in terms of especially in the case of boys.

Table 1: Key education statistics

UNESCO with BEST

Pupil-teacher ratio: Pre-primary (2018) 130 UNESCO Primary (2018) 51 UNESCO Secondary (2018) 21 UNESCO Teacher absenteeism: Pre-Primary (2016) 314 BEST 2016, Table 1.13 Pupil-classroom ratio Pre-primary (2018) 81:1 UNESCO Primary (2018) 76:1 BEST 2018 Page 185 (Government & Non-Government School) but for Government School Only was 1:81

4 UNESCO with BEST Pupil-teacher ratio: Primary (2018): 51:1 40:1 BEST 2018 (Government & Non- Government School page 337) but for Government School Only was 1:45 Gross Enrolment Rate – Pre- Primary 2018 Female 85.8 UNESCO Male 86.4 UNESCO Total 86.1 UNESCO Gross Enrolment Rate- Primary 2018 Female 106 UNESCO Male 104.9 UNESCO Total 105.4 UNESCO Gross Enrolment Rate- Secondary 2018 (Form I–IV) Female 44.6 UNESCO Male 42.7 UNESCO Total 43.7 UNESCO Net Enrolment Rate-Pre- Primary 2018 Female 40.3 UNESCO Male 39.6 UNESCO Total 39.9 UNESCO Net Enrolment Rate-Primary 2018 Female 92 UNESCO Male 90.1 UNESCO Total 91.1 UNESCO Net Enrolment Rate- Secondary 2018 (Form I–IV) Female 36.6 UNESCO Male 32.6 UNESCO Total 34.6 UNESCO Transition from primary to 71.5% UNESCO secondary school (2017) Adult literacy rate 79 HBS 2017/18

Note: BEST = Basic Education Statistics Tanzania

5 Observations made on the basis of the key indicators in Table 1:

Adult literacy averages 79 per cent for age 15 and over 1

Teacher pupil ratios stand at an average of 1 teacher for every 130 students for pre-primary, 1 to 51 primary students and 1 to 21 secondary pupils 2

Transition from primary to secondary is 71.5 per cent 3

Gross enrolment rates stand at 86.1 per cent for pre-primary, 105.4 per cent for primary and 43.7 per cent for secondary students 4

Net enrolment rates stand at 39.9 per cent for pre-primary, 91.9 per cent for primary and 34.6 per cent for secondary students 5

TAKEAWAYS

• Over the last three years, a lot of progress has been made because of signiﬁ cant investment from the GoT and DPs, but still, challenges remain in terms of availability of teachers and classrooms for basic education. Addressing these issues is pivotal for accomplishing the economic development ambitions of the country.

• Given the importance of pre-primary education in child development, this area requires more attention in terms of increasing investment and enhancing the institutional framework. The GoT has a sound policy framework (ESDP) and Primary Teachers Deployment Strategy), which can be used effectively to address those issues.

• Being out of school is a common challenge for children living in hard-to-reach areas. Introducing a school transportation programme (school buses) can partially address accessibility issues in those areas.

3. EDUCATION nominal and 7.7 per cent in real terms. The sector allocation takes up 13.6 per cent SPENDING TRENDS of the total budget in 2019/20 down from 14.8 per cent in FY 2017/18. The relative The education sector was explicitly share of the education sector has declined allocated TSh 4.51 trillion in FY 2019/20 from 21.1 per cent to 18.8 per cent in the compared to TSh 4.64 trillion in FY 2018/19, total budget excluding Consolidated Fund which marks a decline of 2.8 per cent in Services (CFS) during the same period.

6 As a share of GDP, the education budget of the total budget for FY 2019/20 (Figure has declined from 3.8 per cent to 2). The ﬁ rst largest sector is infrastructure at 3.1 per cent during the same period. This 16.4 per cent. Health received 6.7 per cent, ﬁ gure falls far short of the Education for Energy 6.5 per cent, Water 2 per cent and All (EFA) recommended target which asks Agriculture 1.8 per cent. However, the relative countries to commit 20 per cent of the share of education has declined from 16.1 to national budget to education. 13.6 per cent between 2016/17 and 2019/20.

Education is one of the large sectors in However, it should be noted that Tanzania which was allocated 13.6 per cent some large budget components such as administrative services (including debt service) (23 per cent), defence Figure 1: Total education approved budget (5.6 per cent), and minerals (4.5 per cent) ratios to total national budget and GDP (%) were not captured in the analysis.2 20

16 14.8% 14.3% 13.6% Comparing with neighbouring countries– 12 Tanzania’s total education spending ratio to 8 GDP of 3.7 per cent was higher than Uganda’s 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 4 which was 2.52 per cent. However, this 0 ﬁ gure was lower than that of Kenya (5.3 per 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 cent), Zambia (4.67 per cent), and Ethiopia Total education budget as a share of total national budget (%) (4.75 per cent) (Figure 3). Given the Total education budget as a population growth in Tanzania, the shortage of share of GDP (%) classrooms and teachers, it is recommended Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, that the education budget be increased to Budget books 2019/20 and Budget speech of meet the national VISION 2025 objectives Minister of Finance and Planning for FY 2019/20 and SDGs.

Figure 2: Education approved budget versus other key sector shares over total national budget (%), between FY 2016/17 and 2019/20

20.0% 18.5% 17.5% 16.1% 16.0% 16.4% 14.8% 14.3% 15.0% 13.6%

10.0% 6.7% 7.0% 6.4% 6.7% 6.5% 5.2% 5.0% 3.5% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Education Health Water Infrastructure Energy Agriculture

Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning estimates and Budget books FY 2019/20.

2 Figures for FY 2019/20

7 Figure 3: Government expenditure on education, as share of GDP (%) in selected East Africa countries, 2018

5 5.32% 4.67% 4.75% 3.70% 2.52% 0 Tanzania Kenya Zambia Uganda Ethiopia

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/

TAKEAWAYS

• Over the last three years, the share of approved budget on education as a percentage of total public spending and GDP has been declining. Given the population growth in Tanzania, shortage of classrooms and teachers, it is recommended that the education budget be increased in order to meet the national vision objectives and SDGs, as well as the economic transformation goals of the country. Tanzania’s education expenditure as a percentage of the GDP is lower than that of neighbouring countries such as Kenya, Zambia and Ethiopia.

4. COMPOSITION associated with the introduction of the Fee-Free Basic Education policy and the OF EDUCATION promotion of higher education through SPENDING providing student loans. In December 2015, the GoT introduced the Fee 4.1 Spending by different levels Free Basic Education policy which provides free basic education from pre-primary up of education to the lower-secondary school level. As a result, the system came under pressure due The analysis shows some signifi cant to the massive infl ux of new students. For changes in government spending by instance, enrolment for standard one pupils different levels of the education sector. For increased from 1,568,378 pupils in 2015 instance, the share of primary education to 2,120,667 pupils in 2016. In FY 2019/20, spending has drastically increased from TSh 288.5 billion was allocated under the 10.5 per cent to 44 per cent between FY FFBE policy as capitation grants, which 2017/18 and 2019/20 (Figure 4). These represented 6.45 per cent of the total signifi cant shifts in public spending are education budget.3

3 Estimates of Government Revenue and Expenditure for 2018/19 presented to the National Assembly by the Minister of Finance and Planning.

8 Figure 4: Spending by education levels (%) of the total education budget

1% 0.2% 0.2% 100 14.8% 23.8% 80 9.4% 52.5% 9.6% 22.8% 60 21.5% 40 25.6% 44.6% 20 52.5% 9.8% 0 10.5% 2017/18 Actual 2018/19 projected 2019/20 projected

Primary Lower–secondary Education not Subsidary services Others Education Education deﬁ nable by level to Education

Source: Tanzania Economic Survey, 2018

The relative share of services subsidiary provided by the central government to education in the education sector’s through sectoral block transfers, is budget declined from 52.5 per cent to managed by LGAs. The MoEST and 23.8 per cent between FY 2017/18 and PORALG manage 31 and 3.5 per cent of 2019/20. Subsidiary services include costs of the education budget respectively (Figure accommodation, food, and health services 5). The MoEST is responsible for promoting in boarding schools. This decline can be the overall education policy and implementing associated with shifts in the government various sectoral programmes and strategies. policy priorities on improving school The PO-RALG and LGAs are responsible infrastructure, building additional classrooms for overall coordination, quality assurance and other capital spending. and education service delivery at decentralized levels. Furthermore, the GoT is promoting higher education by providing student loans for Figure 5: Total approved education budget university students. In FY 2019/20, the GoT by administrative classiﬁ cation in issued loans through the Higher Education FY 2019/20 (%) Student Loan Board worth a total of TSh 449.99 billion, which constitutes 10 per cent of the total education budget. As a result, the total number of students receiving 31% loans increased from 122,623 in 2017 to 132,119 students as of March 2020.4 Over the past three years, the size of individual 64.9% higher education student loans has increased 0.4% 3.5% signiﬁ cantly. 0.2%

4.2 Education budget by MoEST Teachers' Service Commission programme PO-RALG RAS LGA

The analysis shows that 65 per cent of SOURCE: UNICEF CALCULATION BASED ON MINISTRY OF the lion’s share of the education budget, FINANCE AND PLANNING BUDGET BOOKS FY 2019/20.

4 Ibid.

9 Moreover, a result-based fi nancing instrument Figure 6: Approved budget–Recurrent known as the Education Programme for versus development spending for Results (EPforR) is being implemented with education the support of DFID, SIDA and the World Bank to improve the quality of education for children. This project promotes an education 100 24.1% 26.3% 29.7% fi nancing policy based on the performance of 80 the education sector with a set of concrete 60 results. In the case of successful scale- 40 up, this approach can greatly contribute to 75.9% 73.7% 70.3% improving the effectiveness of budgeting and 20 spending in the education sector. 0 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (%) of Total Education Budget Total of (%) Development budget (%) Recurrent budget (%) 4.3 Education budget by Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, economic classifi cations Budget books for 2019/20

Education is traditionally a recurrent heavy expanded infrastructure to house the growing sector because of the large numbers of number of new students commencing school teachers. Recurrent budget dominates the education each year. education sector budget at 70.3 per cent versus 29.7 per cent for development for At present the largest share of the MoEST’s FY 2019/20. Even though the pupil classroom budget goes to the categories of “access ratio for primary school is very high, with one and quality of education” at 44 per cent, teacher serving 76 pupils, it is important to followed by wages 31 per cent and “working balance recurrent spending for salaries and environment for efﬁ cient and effective goods and services against development delivery of services” at 4 per cent of total funds to invest in vital infrastructure. The analysis shows a slight increase in the share allocations (Figure 7). of the development budget from 24.1 to 29.7 per cent between FY 2017/18 and 2019/20. However, due to data accessibility issues However, this 5.6 per cent increase is not at LGA levels, it was not possible to likely to be enough to meet the demands of review education spending by economic a growing population and hence the need for classiﬁ cations.

Figure 7: Approved budget by institutional objectives for MoEST, FY 2019/20

0.6% 3.8% Research, development and innovation for social economic growth enhanced 4% Sector information management and e-learning 16.6% strengthened 44% Working environment for efﬁ cient and effective delivery of services improved 31% Others Salaries Access and quality of education and training improved Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Budget Book FY 2019/20

10 TAKEAWAYS

• Result-based ﬁ nancing approach can be expanded across the country to improve the overall education sector performance, which can contribute to enhancing the accessibility and quality of education services.

• A balanced investment approach on both recurrent and development components is pivotal for ensuring the successful implementation of the primary teacher deployment strategy, and it is in line with the construction of classrooms in hard-to-reach areas.

5. BUDGET the development-foreign expenditure, which stands at 65.9 per cent execution EXECUTION (Figure 8). For FY 2017/18, 89.7 per cent the total budget for education was executed, and Budget execution is good at an overall 120 per cent of the recurrent, 86.3 per cent total of 89.7 per cent for FY 2018/19, with of the development-local was used up. Again 96.4 per cent of total commitments for the foreign development budget showed the recurrent budget being executed, and a lower execution rate at 59.6 per cent. To 90.8 per cent of the development- tackle this issue, it is recommended that local expenditure. There is still more realistic budget projections be made, room for improvement in respect of basis the pattern of low disbursement for DP projects, and work initiated in collaboration Figure 8: Budget execution for the with the partners to identify reasons for education sector by recurrent and delayed or non-disbursed commitments. development spending (% of total approved budget) Generally, development budgets suffer a challenge in its execution which is associated 120% 120 with either lack of timely disbursement of resources from the treasury (central budget) 96.4% 100 90.8% 89.7% 86.3% 89.7% or donors, bottlenecks in procurement 80 processes or absorption capacities of 65.9% budget recipients. On the ground level, late 59.6% 60 or inadequate disbursement of ﬁ nancial resources has serious implications on the 40 accessibility and quality of basic education 20 services for children. It would be of interest to analyse the major causes of low budget 0 2017/18 2018/19 execution on the education development Total education execution budget funded by DPs. Development foreign execution Recurrent execution Development local execution

Source: Budget execution reports 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19

11 Among MDAs, the MoEST and PO-RALG Figure 9: Budget execution for the demonstrated better performances on education sector by MDAs FY 2017/18 budget execution at 81 and 89 per cent in FY 2017/18, respectively. However, budget 100 execution at RAS level was 56 per cent, which 80

is much lower than other MDAs. Due to data 60 challenges, it was not possible to explore the 40 89% major reasons for the low performance of 81% 77% 56% RASs or to capture budget execution issues 20 at LGA level. Enhancing data collection by 0 operationalizing EPICOR and FFARS will 2017/18 improve the monitoring of expenditure and MoEST Teachers' Service Commission PO-RALG RAS help to address the key bottlenecks on budget execution. Source: MoFP Budget books 2019/20 – volumes II, III & IV

TAKEAWAYS

• The education development-foreign budget is affected by the issue of low budget execution. It is recommended that this issue be tackled by making more realistic budget projections for projects ﬁ nanced by development partners (DPs) and also working with them to identify the reasons for delayed or non-disbursed commitments with the aim of improving the predictability of aid delivery.

• Due to data challenges, it was not possible to explore the major reasons for the low performance of RASs or to capture budget execution issues at LGA level. Enhancing data collection by operationalizing EPICOR and FFARS will improve monitoring of expenditure and will help to address key bottlenecks in the way of budget execution.

6. EQUITY IN BUDGET Availability of teachers at primary education is a vital factor in delivering services. Hence, ALLOCATION some disparity issues were analysed by comparing the pupil-teacher ratios (PTR) at The Mainland Tanzania education sector faces the primary education level and the allocation several equity challenges. These challenges of the regional education budgets among pertain to needs for greater inclusion through the regions. The regional budget allocation the full cycle of education for all children. includes sectoral block transfers on education The ESDP includes “Inequity of access and to LGAs, including recurrent and development learning outcomes” as one of the four main budgets, which are critical in ﬁ nancing salaries challenges faced by the education sector. of teachers and development activities.

A wide range of indicators can be applied Among the regions of Tanzania, the PTRs in for measuring the equity dimensions of the primary education range from the lowest of accessibility of basic education services. 32 and the highest of 74. The highest PTRs

12 are concentrated in Katavi (74), Simiyu (65), the availability of essential conditions in Geita (64), and Singida (61) regions (Figure those hard-to-reach regions and provide 10). Lower PTRs were recorded in Kilimanjaro additional resources during the planning and (32), Arusha (35), and Dar es Salaam (36) budgeting processes. Furthermore, it needs regions. The analysis shows a direct link to be said that it is not possible to apply between income poverty rates and PTRs. For intergovernmental ﬁ scal transfer formulas, instance, Simiyu and Geita had higher poverty at all, for those LGAs where teachers and rates at 39.2 and 37.5 per cent, respectively. schools are not available.

Also, the analysis revealed signifi cant Intergovernmental fi scal transfers play a disparities in the allocation of budget critical equalizer role, where socio-economic resources across the regions. For instance, in disparities are signifi cant. A tentative analysis Simiyu and Geita, regions with the relatively shows that a few indicators such as the high PTRs of 65 and 64, the regional population and the number of school-aged education budget per child was TSh 11,729 children, and poverty rate are used in the and TSh 12,118 respectively. These fi gures allocation of education sector block grants. were far below the regional average of However, these indicators may not fully TSh 21,596 (Figure 11). represent the context-related issues in hard- to-reach areas. Therefore, enhancing the It must be stressed that the socio- economically disadvantaged regions face intergovernmental fi scal transfer formulas serious equity issues in fi nancing of key on development and capital spending can social services for children. In many cases, contribute to addressing equity issues in the disparities in the allocation of resources to budgeting process. It is recommended that LGAs are driven by the level of availability of the formulas currently in use be analysed so social infrastructure (schools) and teachers. that a better understanding of key constraints Therefore, it is very important to factor in may be gained.

Migration due to nomadic pastoralism Refugees resulting from political and Rural-urban patterns armed conﬂ ict in neighbouring countries

Large numbers of orphans Hard-to-reach areas

High prevalence of HIV Children with infection, especially disabilities among women High poverty levels Factors Out-of-school associated children5 with increased vulnerability

5 MoEST, the Final Programme Document, Application for the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) Teaching and Learning Education Support (LANES II) Grant, November 2018.

13 Figure 10: Primary education: Pupil teacher ratios (PTR) in government and non-government schools by regions, 2018

45 and less Above 45 Water body Region Boundary International Boundary

Figure 11: Primary education, PTRs in government and non-governmental schools versus regional education budget per child FY 2018/19

40,000 33,873 35,000 30,616 30,000 27,458 22,776 23,739 25,000 19,328 20,299 17,041 17,551 20,000 13,975 15,536 11,729 15,000 10,000 5,000 65 64 58 61 53 59 55 74 60 48 47 64 36 58 61 52 51 49 53 45 50 51 40 32 44 41 0

Lindi Geita Mara Katavi Tanga Pwani Iringa Simiyu TaboraRukwaKagera Kigoma SingidaTOTAL Mbeya Mwanza Manyara Dodoma Ruvuma Songwe Mtwara Njombe Shinyanga Morogoro Kilimanjaro Dar es Salaam PTR in Govt and Non-Govt schools 2018 Education budget/per child (TSh)

Source: PO-RALG (2018/19) and BEST 2018

14 TAKEAWAYS

• There are huge variances among regions in terms of the availability of teachers and classrooms, the number of out-of-school children, and other important indicators. Necessary attention should be paid to these issues in developing the next phase of ESDP.

• Signiﬁ cant disparities exist in the allocation of the education budget among regions, which include key budget components on recurrent and development spending at LGA levels. Therefore, integrating more equity elements into the education grant block transfers can address inequity issues related to the accessibility of basic education services in hard-to-reach areas. Conducting a thorough analysis can help to gain a better understanding of the issues.

7. FINANCING THE FY 2019/20 (Figure 13). In absolute proportions of fi nancing sources, the GoT EDUCATION fi nanced development budget has grown from 65 per cent to 83 per cent over the same SECTOR period, which is associated with the increased volume of funding on higher education student The ESDP between 2016/17 and 2020/21 loans (discussed in section 4). Recurrent has a comprehensive costing plan, including fi nance which comes from GoT has remained the demand for annual fi nancial resources. steady over the period. The total cost of the ESDP was estimated at TSh 26.2 trillion including, TSh 19.1 trillion for Moreover, the education sector receives off- recurrent and TSh 7.1 trillion for development budget funding support from DPs, which is not purposes. An analysis shows that the GoT captured in the fi scal reports. It was also not budget allocations for the education sector in FY 2016/17 and 2017/18 were in line with the ESDP projections (Figure 12). However, Figure 13: Sources of fi nance for MoEST since FY 2018/19 the budget allocations have development budget between FY 2017/18 declined, and funding gaps have signifi cantly and 2019/20 increased for the last two years. It is strongly recommended that the fi scal envelope of the 100% education sector be reconsidered to make sure 17% 35% 33% the ESDP receives adequate funding to attain 80% its objectives as set out in the commitment of the GoT to the GPE. 60%

Moreover, the government is currently 40% 83% updating the ESDP for the next ﬁ ve years, 65% 67% which is a good opportunity to readjust the 20 projections and align with government budget planning. 0% 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Most of the Tanzanian education budget is Budget Budget Budget funded by domestic resources. For instance, Development – local Development – foreign the share of foreign ﬁ nancing in the MoEST development budget has declined from Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, 35 per cent in FY 2017/18 to 17 per cent in Budget book (various years)

15 possible to cover the fi nancing of education at US$ 112 million to build on Tanzania’s the LGA level due to data challenges. successful efforts to get more children in school and learning – especially girls and The analysis shows that DPs play signifi cant children from disadvantaged backgrounds. roles in reforming the education system The grant will improve the quality of in Tanzania. In FY 2020/21, several pre-primary, primary and non-formal education large-scale projects are scheduled for by strengthening teacher training and implementation. For example, the World professional development, distributing more Bank has approved a loan of US$ 500 million quality teaching and learning materials to for supporting the secondary education underserved areas and improving education programme, and the Global Partnership for planning and management. These projects will increase the share of DPs in fi nancing the Education (GPE) approved a grant totalling education sector.

Figure 12: Budget projections under ESDP II and allocations for education (trillion TSh)

7 6 5 4 6.3 5.8 3 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 2 4.0 1 0 2016/17 Proj 2017/18 Proj 2018/19 Proj 2019/20 Proj 2020/21 Proj Total budget projected by ESDP (trl. TSh) Total budget allocation for education (trl. TSh)

Source: UNICEF estimates based on data from the MoFP and ESDP

TAKEAWAYS

• The ESDP between 2016/17 and 2020/21 has a comprehensive costing plan setting out the requirements for annual fi nancial resources. The total cost of ESDP was estimated at TSh 26.2 trillion including TSh 19.1 trillion for recurrent expenditure and TSh 7.1 trillion for development expenditure. However, since FY 2018/19, funding gaps have signifi cantly increased for the fi nal two years of the ESDP. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that the fi scal envelope for education be reconsidered in order to ensure the ESDP receives adequate funding to achieve its objectives as emphasized in the government’s commitment to the Global Partnership for Education (GPE).

• Moreover, the government is currently updating the ESDP for the next ﬁ ve years, which is a good opportunity to readjust the projections and align with government budget planning.