Predicting the Present with Google Trends
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Eliciting Informative Feedback: the Peer$Prediction Method
Eliciting Informative Feedback: The Peer-Prediction Method Nolan Miller, Paul Resnick, and Richard Zeckhauser January 26, 2005y Abstract Many recommendation and decision processes depend on eliciting evaluations of opportu- nities, products, and vendors. A scoring system is devised that induces honest reporting of feedback. Each rater merely reports a signal, and the system applies proper scoring rules to the implied posterior beliefs about another rater’s report. Honest reporting proves to be a Nash Equilibrium. The scoring schemes can be scaled to induce appropriate e¤ort by raters and can be extended to handle sequential interaction and continuous signals. We also address a number of practical implementation issues that arise in settings such as academic reviewing and on-line recommender and reputation systems. 1 Introduction Decision makers frequently draw on the experiences of multiple other individuals when making decisions. The process of eliciting others’information is sometimes informal, as when an executive consults underlings about a new business opportunity. In other contexts, the process is institution- alized, as when journal editors secure independent reviews of papers, or an admissions committee has multiple faculty readers for each …le. The internet has greatly enhanced the role of institu- tionalized feedback methods, since it can gather and disseminate information from vast numbers of individuals at minimal cost. To name just a few examples, eBay invites buyers and sellers to rate Miller and Zeckhauser, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Resnick, School of Information, University of Michigan. yWe thank Alberto Abadie, Chris Avery, Miriam Avins, Chris Dellarocas, Je¤ Ely, John Pratt, Bill Sandholm, Lones Smith, Ennio Stachetti, Steve Tadelis, Hal Varian, two referees and two editors for helpful comments. -
Program, List of Abstracts, and List of Participants and of Participating Institutions
Wellcome to the Econophysics Colloquium 2016! In this booklet you will find relevant information about the colloquium, like the program, list of abstracts, and list of participants and of participating institutions. We hope you all have a pleasant and productive time here in São Paulo! Program Wednesday, 27 Thursday, 28 Friday, 29 8.30 – Registration 9:15 am 9:15 – Welcome 9.30 am Universality in the interoccurrence Multiplex dependence structure of Measuring economic behavior using 9.30 - times in finance and elsewhere financial markets online data 10.30 am (C. Tsallis) (T. Di Matteo) (S. Moat) 10.30- Coffee Break Coffee Break Coffee Break 11.00 am Portfolio optimization under expected Financial markets, self-organized Sensing human activity using online 11.00- shortfall: contour maps of estimation criticality and random strategies data 12.00 am error (A. Rapisarda) (T. Preis) (F. Caccioli) 12.00- Lunch Lunch Lunch 2.00 pm Trading networks at NASDAQ OMX Complexity driven collapses in large 2.00-3.00 IFT-Colloquium Helsinki random economies pm (R. Mantegna) (R. Mantegna) (G. Livan) Financial market crashes can be 3.00-4.00 Poster Session quantitatively forecasted Parallel Sessions 2A and 2B pm (S.A. Cheong) 4.00-4.30 Coffee Break Coffee Break Closing pm Macroeconomic modelling with Discussion Group: Financial crises and 4.30-5.30 heterogeneous agents: the master systemic risk - Presentation by Thiago pm equation approach (M. Grasselli) Christiano Silva (Banco Central) 5.45-6.45 Discussion Group: Critical transitions in Parallel Sessions 1A and 1B pm markets 7.00- Dinner 10.00 pm Wednesday, 27 July Plenary Sessions (morning) Auditorium 9.30 am – 12 pm 9.30-10.30 am Universality in the Interoccurence times in finance and elsewhere Constantino Tsallis (CBPF, Brazil) A plethora of natural, artificial and social systems exist which do not belong to the Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical-mechanical world, based on the standard additive entropy SBG and its associated exponential BG factor. -
WRAP 0265813516687302.Pdf
Original citation: Seresinhe, Chanuki Illushka, Moat, Helen Susannah and Preis, Tobias. (2017) Quantifying scenic areas using crowdsourced data. Environment and Planning B : Urban Analytics and City Science . 10.1177/0265813516687302 Permanent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/87375 Copyright and reuse: The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work of researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. This article is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 (CC BY 3.0) license and may be reused according to the conditions of the license. For more details see: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ A note on versions: The version presented in WRAP is the published version, or, version of record, and may be cited as it appears here. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications Urban Analytics and Article City Science Environment and Planning B: Urban Quantifying scenic areas Analytics and City Science 0(0) 1–16 ! The Author(s) 2017 using crowdsourced data Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0265813516687302 Chanuki Illushka Seresinhe, journals.sagepub.com/home/epb Helen Susannah Moat and Tobias Preis Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, UK; The Alan Turing Institute, UK Abstract For centuries, philosophers, policy-makers and urban planners have debated whether aesthetically pleasing surroundings can improve our wellbeing. To date, quantifying how scenic an area is has proved challenging, due to the difficulty of gathering large-scale measurements of scenicness. In this study we ask whether images uploaded to the website Flickr, combined with crowdsourced geographic data from OpenStreetMap, can help us estimate how scenic people consider an area to be. -
Annual Report 2018
2018Annual Report Annual Report July 1, 2017–June 30, 2018 Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 tel 202.509.8400 www.cfr.org [email protected] OFFICERS DIRECTORS David M. Rubenstein Term Expiring 2019 Term Expiring 2022 Chairman David G. Bradley Sylvia Mathews Burwell Blair Effron Blair Effron Ash Carter Vice Chairman Susan Hockfield James P. Gorman Jami Miscik Donna J. Hrinak Laurene Powell Jobs Vice Chairman James G. Stavridis David M. Rubenstein Richard N. Haass Vin Weber Margaret G. Warner President Daniel H. Yergin Fareed Zakaria Keith Olson Term Expiring 2020 Term Expiring 2023 Executive Vice President, John P. Abizaid Kenneth I. Chenault Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer Mary McInnis Boies Laurence D. Fink James M. Lindsay Timothy F. Geithner Stephen C. Freidheim Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, Stephen J. Hadley Margaret (Peggy) Hamburg and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair James Manyika Charles Phillips Jami Miscik Cecilia Elena Rouse Nancy D. Bodurtha Richard L. Plepler Frances Fragos Townsend Vice President, Meetings and Membership Term Expiring 2021 Irina A. Faskianos Vice President, National Program Tony Coles Richard N. Haass, ex officio and Outreach David M. Cote Steven A. Denning Suzanne E. Helm William H. McRaven Vice President, Philanthropy and Janet A. Napolitano Corporate Relations Eduardo J. Padrón Jan Mowder Hughes John Paulson Vice President, Human Resources and Administration Caroline Netchvolodoff OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS, Vice President, Education EMERITUS & HONORARY Shannon K. O’Neil Madeleine K. Albright Maurice R. Greenberg Vice President and Deputy Director of Studies Director Emerita Honorary Vice Chairman Lisa Shields Martin S. -
The Information Revolution Reaches Pharmaceuticals: Balancing Innovation Incentives, Cost, and Access in the Post-Genomics Era
RAI.DOC 4/13/2001 3:27 PM THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION REACHES PHARMACEUTICALS: BALANCING INNOVATION INCENTIVES, COST, AND ACCESS IN THE POST-GENOMICS ERA Arti K. Rai* Recent development in genomics—the science that lies at the in- tersection of information technology and biotechnology—have ush- ered in a new era of pharmaceutical innovation. Professor Rai ad- vances a theory of pharmaceutical development and allocation that takes account of these recent developments from the perspective of both patent law and health law—that is, from both the production side and the consumption side. She argues that genomics has the po- tential to make reforms that increase access to prescription drugs not only more necessary as a matter of equity but also more feasible as a matter of innovation policy. On the production end, so long as patent rights in upstream genomics research do not create transaction cost bottlenecks, genomics should, in the not-too-distant future, yield some reduction in drug research and development costs. If these cost re- ductions are realized, it may be possible to scale back certain features of the pharmaceutical patent regime that cause patent protection for pharmaceuticals to be significantly stronger than patent protection for other innovation. On the consumption side, genomics should make drug therapy even more important in treating illness. This reality, coupled with empirical data revealing that cost and access problems are particularly severe for those individuals who are not able to secure favorable price discrimination through insurance, militates in favor of government subsidies for such insurance. As contrasted with patent buyouts, the approach favored by many patent scholars, subsidies * Associate Professor of Law, University of San Diego Law School; Visiting Associate Profes- sor, Washington University, St. -
UC Riverside UCR Honors Capstones 2016-2017
UC Riverside UCR Honors Capstones 2016-2017 Title GTWENDS Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/41g0w0q9 Author Asfour, Mark Publication Date 2017-12-08 Data Availability The data associated with this publication are within the manuscript. eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California GTWENDS By Mark Jeffrey Asfour A capstone project submitted for Graduation with University Honors October 20, 2016 University Honors University of California, Riverside APPROVED ______________________________ Dr. Evangelos Christidis Department of Computer Science & Engineering ______________________________ Dr. Richard Cardullo, Howard H Hays Chair and Faculty Director, University Honors Associate Vice Provost, Undergraduate Education Abstract GTWENDS is an online interactive map of the United States of America that displays the locations of trending Twitter tweets, Google Search trends, and Google Hot Trends topics. States on the map are overlaid with a blue color where Twitter trends originate and a red color where Google trends originate with respective opacity levels varying based on the levels of interest from each website. Through the use of web crawling, map-reducing, and utilizing distributed processing, this project allows visitors to have an interactive geographic visual representation of current national social media topic activities. Visitors can use GTWENDS to learn about social media trends by observing where trends originate from, comparing the contrasts and similarities between trends from Twitter and Google, understanding what types of events trigger mass social media sharing, and much more. ii Acknowledgements I have worked on and developed GTWENDS with my classmates, Mehran Ghamaty (University of California, Riverside Spring 2016) and Jacob Xu (University of California, Riverside Spring 2016), during our senior design project class, CS 179G Databases Spring 2016, under the supervision of my professor and mentor, Professor Evangelos Christidis. -
Ei-Report-2013.Pdf
Economic Impact United States 2013 Stavroulla Kokkinis, Athina Kohilas, Stella Koukides, Andrea Ploutis, Co-owners The Lucky Knot Alexandria,1 Virginia The web is working for American businesses. And Google is helping. Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. Making it easy for businesses to find potential customers and for those customers to find what they’re looking for is an important part of that mission. Our tools help to connect business owners and customers, whether they’re around the corner or across the world from each other. Through our search and advertising programs, businesses find customers, publishers earn money from their online content and non-profits get donations and volunteers. These tools are how we make money, and they’re how millions of businesses do, too. This report details Google’s economic impact in the U.S., including state-by-state numbers of advertisers, publishers, and non-profits who use Google every day. It also includes stories of the real business owners behind those numbers. They are examples of businesses across the country that are using the web, and Google, to succeed online. Google was a small business when our mission was created. We are proud to share the tools that led to our success with other businesses that want to grow and thrive in this digital age. Sincerely, Jim Lecinski Vice President, Customer Solutions 2 Economic Impact | United States 2013 Nationwide Report Randy Gayner, Founder & Owner Glacier Guides West Glacier, Montana The web is working for American The Internet is where business is done businesses. -
The Next Frontier for Innovation, Competition, and Productivity
McKinsey Global Institute June 2011 Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity The McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), established in 1990, is McKinsey & Company’s business and economics research arm. MGI’s mission is to help leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors develop a deeper understanding of the evolution of the global economy and to provide a fact base that contributes to decision making on critical management and policy issues. MGI research combines two disciplines: economics and management. Economists often have limited access to the practical problems facing senior managers, while senior managers often lack the time and incentive to look beyond their own industry to the larger issues of the global economy. By integrating these perspectives, MGI is able to gain insights into the microeconomic underpinnings of the long-term macroeconomic trends affecting business strategy and policy making. For nearly two decades, MGI has utilized this “micro-to-macro” approach in research covering more than 20 countries and 30 industry sectors. MGI’s current research agenda focuses on three broad areas: productivity, competitiveness, and growth; the evolution of global financial markets; and the economic impact of technology. Recent research has examined a program of reform to bolster growth and renewal in Europe and the United States through accelerated productivity growth; Africa’s economic potential; debt and deleveraging and the end of cheap capital; the impact of multinational companies on the US economy; technology-enabled business trends; urbanization in India and China; and the competitiveness of sectors and industrial policy. MGI is led by three McKinsey & Company directors: Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Charles Roxburgh. -
Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics†
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 28, Number 2—Spring 2014—Pages 3–28 Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics† Hal R. Varian oomputersmputers aarere nnowow iinvolvednvolved iinn mmanyany eeconomicconomic ttransactionsransactions aandnd ccanan ccaptureapture ddataata aassociatedssociated wwithith tthesehese ttransactions,ransactions, whichwhich ccanan thenthen bbee manipulatedmanipulated C aandnd aanalyzed.nalyzed. CConventionalonventional sstatisticaltatistical aandnd econometriceconometric techniquestechniques suchsuch aass rregressionegression ooftenften wworkork well,well, bbutut ttherehere aarere iissuesssues uuniquenique ttoo bbigig datasetsdatasets thatthat maymay rrequireequire ddifferentifferent ttools.ools. FFirst,irst, tthehe ssheerheer ssizeize ooff tthehe ddataata iinvolvednvolved mmayay rrequireequire mmoreore ppowerfulowerful ddataata mmanipulationanipulation ttools.ools. SSecond,econd, wewe maymay hhaveave mmoreore ppotentialotential ppredictorsredictors tthanhan aappro-ppro- ppriateriate fforor eestimation,stimation, ssoo wwee needneed toto dodo somesome kindkind ofof variablevariable selection.selection. Third,Third, llargearge ddatasetsatasets mmayay aallowllow fforor mmoreore fl eexiblexible relationshipsrelationships tthanhan simplesimple linearlinear models.models. MMachineachine llearningearning ttechniquesechniques ssuchuch aass ddecisionecision ttrees,rees, ssupportupport vvectorector machines,machines, nneuraleural nnets,ets, ddeepeep llearning,earning, aandnd soso onon maymay allowallow forfor moremore effectiveeffective -
Spring 2020 CWRU Economics Dept Newsletter
Spring 2020 CWRU Economics Dept Newsletter Hal Varian gives 2019 McMyler Memorial Lecture September 24, 2019: Hal Varian, Chief Economist at Google, visited campus to deliver the annual Howard T. McMyler Memorial Lecture. Varian talked about the future of work, focusing on how shifting demographics and declining popula- tion growth will continue to create a tight labor market even in the face of increased automation. He also met with a small group of economics majors before his presentation, where he answered their questions and offered advice. Pictured are economics majors at the meeting: back row: Aayush Parikh ('20), Hersh Bhatt ('20), Kareem Agag ('20), (Hal Vari- an), James Jung ('22), and Marcus Daly ('20); front row: Alec Hoover ('20), Alexandra Stevens ('20), Claire Jeffress ('22), Lee Radics ('20), Jon Powell ('21), Earl Hsieh ('21), and Peter Durand ('20). Women in Economics club approved Professor Roman Sheremeta gave two TED talks in Women in Economics (WE) aims to empower women by hosting 2019: one in Ukraine at events that foster connections within and beyond CWRU, as well TEDxIvano-Frankivsk over the summer, and one as assist women in professional development to increase their on campus at TEDxCWRU in November. His representation in the economics community. Students from any TEDxCWRU talk, “The Pursuit of Happiness: major or gender may join and/or attend events. Advice from a Behavioral Economist,” is now Their first event will be March 24, 4:00 p.m. in PBL 203: a available on the TEDx Talks YouTube channel. general introduction and social event for anyone interested in participating in the club. -
Finding the Face of Your Data
Finding the Face of Your Data There’s been an explosion in data assets Growth of the “digital universe”1 Data overload in context2 40,000 1 EB = 1 billion gigabytes x70 30,000 20,000 10,000 Exabytes 2009 2020 IDC estimates that “tagged” information accounts for only about 3% The amount of information generated by humanity during the first of the digital universe, with analyzed information at 0.5%. The value day of a baby’s life today is equivalent to 70 times the information of big data technology lies in exploring the “untapped pools.” contained in the Library of Congress. Enterprise expectations are as big as the data Big data spending forecast by component3 50 Compute 31% CAGR Storage 40 Networking 30 Infrastructure Software SQL Database Software 20 NoSQL Database Software Application Software 10 Professional Services Billion Dollars Xaas 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 According to a Wikibon study, big data spend will shift from infrastructure and middleware to value-add services and software during the next five years. Infrastructure, middleware, and technical services will likely become increasingly commoditized as they mature and common standards are adopted. We also note that this study did not include the costs associated with the business and domain experts’ time – a critical element of actionable insight. Taking advantage of data requires new tools ... Traditional and non-traditional value in data Data diving Pattern finding In taking advantage of new data assets – The other side of that same coin, from internal, external, structured, and seeking and patterning for previously unstructured data – and analytics tools, unasked and unanswerable questions, the most common form of value is realized is less common, but potentially more through exploiting deeper detail for new important to the enterprise. -
Unit 4 Lesson 1
Unit 4 Lesson 1 What is Big Data? Resources Name(s)_______________________________________________ Period ______ Date ________________ Unit 4 Lesson 01 Activity Guide - Big Data Sleuth Card Directions: Web Sites: ● With a partner, select one of the tools in the list to the right. 1. Web archive http://www.archive.org ● Determine what the tool is showing. 2. Measure of America http://www.measureofamerica.org/maps/ ● Find the source of the data it allows you to explore. 3. Wind Sensor network http://earth.nullschool.net/ ● Complete the table below. 4. Twitter sentiment https://www.csc.ncsu.edu/faculty/healey/tweet_viz/tweet_app/ 5. Alternative Fuel Locator http://www.afdc.energy.gov/locator/stations/ Website Name What is this website potentially useful for? What kinds of problems could the provided information be used to solve? Is the provided visualization useful? Does it provide insight into the data? How does it help you look at a lot of information at once? How could it improve? Where is the data coming from? Check for “About”, “Download”, or “API”. You may also need to do a web search. ● Is the data from one source or many? ● Is it static or live? ● Is the source reputable? Why or why not? ● Add a link to the raw data if you can find one. Do you consider this “big” data? Explain your reasoning. 1 Unit 4 Lesson 2 Finding Trends with Visualizations Resources Unit 4 Lesson 2 Name(s)_______________________________________________ Period ______ Date ___________________ Activity Guide - Exploring Trends What’s a Trend? When you post information to a social network, watch a video online, or simply search for information on a search engine, some of that data is collected, and you reveal what topics are currently on your mind.