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Buy Xiamen Tungsten 27 August 2018 Metals & Mining Xiamen Tungsten Provided for the exclusive use of Research Research at Provisional Access on 2018-08-28T03:11+00:00. DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE Deutsche Bank Research Rating Company Date Buy Xiamen Tungsten 27 August 2018 Forecast Change Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 24 Aug 2018 (CNY) 13.48 Resources 600549.SS 600549 CG SHH 600549 Price target - 12mth (CNY) 26.70 Metals & Mining 52-week range (CNY) 36.24 - 13.47 HANG SENG INDEX 27,672 1H results missed on margin; but improving trajectory in terms of QoQ Valuation & Risks Sharon Ding Weak 1H due to fewer self-supplied raw materials, but improvement in the second Q Research Analyst Xiamen Tungsten published its first-half results with NPAT of RMB334m, reaching +852-2203-5716 35% and 38% of the DB/consensus whole-year estimates. The company’s overall GPM was 18% in 1H18, down by 6ppt YoY. For tungsten products, James Kan the company used fewer self-produced raw materials and mainly consumed Research Analyst externally purchased materials (especially in 1Q), resulting in a lower margin +852-2203 6146 despite a 43% tungsten concentrate price hike in 1H18 YoY. In addition, GPM of battery materials also declined as the company no longer had low price cobalt Key changes TP 31.20 to 26.70 -14.4% inventory as it did in 1H17. In terms of QoQ trajectory, GPM improved by 6ppt in ↓ Sales (FYE) 14,990 to ↑ 12.5% the second quarter, mainly due to profit realized from self-mined concentrates. 16,867 According to the company, tungsten self-sufficiency is expected to stay stable at Op prof margin 12.5 to 9.5 ↓ -23.9% 40-50% going forward. (FYE) Net profit (FYE) 942.5 to 804.6 ↓ -14.6% To grow on ternary materials Source: Deutsche Bank The company has been actively expanding battery materials capacity, and we Price/price relative expect this segment to be the growth driver, largely supported by the promising 60 development of the China EV market. According to the company, part of the 10ktpa Haicang project has started commissioning, and the 6ktkpa Sanming 40 project is expected to complete equipment installment this year. We expect these 20 two projects to contribute meaningful volume starting from 2019. In addition, 0 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '18 Jul '18 Ningde project phase I of 10ktpa is scheduled to start equipment installment in 2H18, and we expect it to support ternary business growth from late 2019 Xiamen Tungsten HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) onwards. Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute -12.5 -39.6 -56.3 Valuation and risks HANG SENG INDEX -3.5 -10.0 0.6 We lower our 2018/19E NPAT both by 14%/12% to reflect lower self-sufficiency of Source: Deutsche Bank tungsten supply and also higher costs of battery materials. We thus revise down Key indicators (FY1) our target price by 14% for Xiamen Tungsten to RMB26.7. Our target price is ROE (%) 11.2 based on a DCF methodology, with a WACC of 7.6%, terminal growth of 2%, Rf Net debt/equity (%) 57.1 3.9%, MRP 5.6% and beta of 1.2. We believe a terminal growth of 2% is fair to Book value/share (CNY) 6.89 reflect growing ternary materials capacity, showing the secular growth. The stock Price/book (x) 2.0 is currently trading at 18x/13x 2018/19 DBe EPS, and we believe the valuation is Net interest cover (x) 5.1 not demanding and thus maintain our Buy rating. Risks include lower tungsten Operating profit margin (%) 9.5 and rare earth price, lower margins in battery products, and project ramp-up Source: Deutsche Bank delays. Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its reseDistributedarch repo ron:ts. T27/08/2018hus, inves t07:55:24ors shou lGMTd be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 091/04/2018. The content may not be distributed in The People;s Republic of China (“The PRC”) (except in compliance with the applicable laws and regulations of PRC), excluding Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Provided for the exclusive use of Research Research at Provisional Access on 2018-08-28T03:11+00:00. DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 27 August 2018 Metals & Mining Xiamen Tungsten Forecasts and ratios Year End Dec 31 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Sales (CNYm) 8,528.4 14,188.3 16,867.4 20,601.0 21,373.1 EBITDA (CNYm) 1,100.0 1,996.8 2,312.1 2,983.7 3,248.2 EBIT(CNYm) 501 1,403 1,602 2,235 2,482 Reported EPS FD(CNY) 0.14 0.57 0.74 1.08 1.23 Reported NPAT (CNYm) 147.0 618.4 804.6 1,176.2 1,331.8 DB EPS growth (%) – 320.3 29.6 46.2 13.2 DB EPS FD(CNY) 0.14 0.57 0.74 1.08 1.23 OLD DB EPS FD(CNY) 0.14 0.57 0.87 1.26 1.42 % Change 0.0% 0.0% -14.6% -14.0% -13.6% PER (x) 175.5 44.1 18.2 12.5 11.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.7 16.8 7.8 5.3 4.3 DPS (net) (CNY) 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.23 Yield (net) (%) 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Provided for the exclusive use of Research Research at Provisional Access on 2018-08-28T03:11+00:00. DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 27 August 2018 Metals & Mining Xiamen Tungsten Model updated: 26 August 2018 Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Running the numbers Financial Summary Asia DB EPS (CNY) -0.69 0.14 0.57 0.74 1.08 1.23 Reported EPS (CNY) -0.69 0.14 0.57 0.74 1.08 1.23 China DPS (CNY) 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.23 Metals & Mining BVPS (CNY) 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.9 7.8 8.8 Weighted average shares (m) 1,082 1,082 1,087 1,087 1,087 1,087 Average market cap (CNYm) 25,567 25,804 27,351 11,215 11,215 11,215 Xiamen Tungsten Enterprise value (CNYm) 28,632 28,302 33,607 17,954 15,899 13,971 Reuters: 600549.SS Bloomberg: 600549 CG Valuation Metrics P/E (DB) (x) nm 175.5 44.1 18.2 12.5 11.0 Buy P/E (Reported) (x) nm 175.5 44.1 18.2 12.5 11.0 P/BV (x) 3.07 3.67 4.06 1.96 1.73 1.53 Price (24 Aug 18) CNY 13.48 FCF Yield (%) nm 3.6 nm 2.7 21.0 20.4 Target Price CNY 26.70 Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 EV/Sales (x) 3.7 3.3 2.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 52 Week range CNY 13.47 - 36.24 EV/EBITDA (x) 46.6 25.7 16.8 7.8 5.3 4.3 EV/EBIT (x) 629.3 56.5 24.0 11.2 7.1 5.6 Market cap (m) CNYm 11,215 USDm 1,629.3 Income Statement (CNYm) Sales revenue 7,755 8,528 14,188 16,867 20,601 21,373 Company Profile Gross profit 1,581 2,094 3,509 3,915 4,838 5,065 Xiamen Tungsten, a leader in cemented carbide industry in EBITDA 615 1,100 1,997 2,312 2,984 3,248 China, principally engages in mining, smelting and processing Depreciation 569 599 594 711 749 766 tungsten, molybdenum and rare earth products. Xiamen Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tungsten produces battery and operates in real estate EBIT 46 501 1,403 1,602 2,235 2,482 development and management as well. Net interest income(expense) -209 -208 -231 -311 -306 -269 Associates/affiliates -32 -34 49 0 0 0 Exceptionals/extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other pre-tax income/(expense) -343 166 -29 175 214 212 Profit before tax -538 425 1,191 1,465 2,142 2,426 Price Performance Income tax expense 39 125 257 316 462 523 50 Minorities 85 152 316 345 504 571 Other post-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 Net profit -662 147 618 805 1,176 1,332 30 DB adjustments (including dilution) 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 DB Net profit -662 147 618 805 1,176 1,332 10 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '18 Jul '18 Cash Flow (CNYm) Xiamen Tungsten HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) Cash flow from operations -1,263 1,206 -930 890 3,583 3,284 Net Capex -586 -265 -797 -500 -500 -300 Margin Trends Free cash flow -1,849 941 -1,727 390 3,083 2,984 Equity raised/(bought back) 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Dividends paid -621 -582 -650 -529 -524 -486 15 Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 2,674 2,224 3,391 0 0 0 10 Other investing/financing cash flows -831 -1,995 -1,200 0 0 0 5 Net cash flow -626 588 -186 -138 2,559 2,498 0 Change in working capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 15 16 17 18E 19E 20E Balance Sheet (CNYm) EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Cash and other liquid assets 431 1,041 984 846 3,406 5,904 Tangible fixed assets 5,596 5,838 5,847 5,676 5,465 5,035 Growth & Profitibility Goodwill/intangible assets 767 726 773 733 696 660 100 20 Associates/investments 723 670 986 986 986 986 Other assets 8,471 7,224 10,260 11,997 11,574 11,333 75 10 Total assets 15,987 15,500 18,851 20,238 22,126 23,917 50 0 Interest bearing debt 2,618 2,580 6,375 6,375 6,375 6,375 Other liabilities 5,134 4,802 3,728 4,183 4,608 4,714 25 -10 Total liabilities 7,752 7,382 10,103 10,558 10,983 11,089 0 -20 Shareholders' equity 6,636 6,489 6,896 7,484 8,443 9,557 15 16 17 18E 19E 20E Minorities 1,599 1,628 1,851 2,196 2,700 3,271 Total shareholders' equity 8,235 8,117 8,748 9,680 11,143 12,828 Sales growth (LHS) ROE (RHS) Net debt 2,188 1,539 5,391 5,529 2,970 471 Solvency Key Company Metrics 100 10 80 7.5 Sales growth (%) nm 10.0 66.4 18.9 22.1 3.7 DB EPS growth (%) na na 320.3 29.6 46.2 13.2 60 5 EBITDA Margin (%) 7.9 12.9 14.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 40 2.5 EBIT Margin (%) 0.6 5.9 9.9 9.5 10.8 11.6 20 0 Payout ratio (%) nm 147.1 35.1 27.0 18.5 18.5 0 -2.5 ROE (%) -9.4 2.2 9.2 11.2 14.8 14.8 15 16 17 18E 19E 20E Capex/sales (%) 7.6 3.8 5.6 3.0 2.4 1.4 Capex/depreciation (x) 1.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 Net debt/equity (LHS) Net interest cover (RHS) Net debt/equity (%) 26.6 19.0 61.6 57.1 26.6 3.7 Sharon Ding Net interest cover (x) 0.2 2.4 6.1 5.1 7.3 9.2 +852 2203 5716 [email protected] Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 Provided for the exclusive use of Research Research at Provisional Access on 2018-08-28T03:11+00:00.
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