FEWS bulletin AFR/97-02 USA/0-FinancedFamine Early Warning System

Sahel Inside: Emergency Food Needed in Parts of Foodsituat ionin Maliand Burkina Faso isgener ally satisfactory...... 2 Mauritania, Chad, and Niger Bumperm ain-seasonharvest in Ethiopia...... 3 s Sahelian countries approach t he Estimateof secondaryharvest in Somalia A t ime of year when household Mauritania isred uced...... 3 Food security conditions are deteriorating stocks in rura l areas dwind le, the food Kenyade claresdrought di saster...... 5 for agropastoral populations acrosseight of sit uat ion in Mali and Burkina Faso Mauritania'sW ilayas. The Governmentand Short-rainsproduct ionis much below avera ge appears satisfactory. Howeve r, in Mauri · WFPl ed a mission- in which FEWSpartici­ inTanzania ...... 5 tania, Chad, and Niger there are reasons pated- to theseW ilayasin January (fig· Second·seasonproduction 30 percent be low fo r co ncern: signs of severe stress­ ure 1).The consensusamong donors and normalin Uganda...... 6 including movements of entire families WFPis that approximately 200,000pe rsons Heavyrainfa ll leadsto damagingfloods in into tow ns, the selling of such valuable need 16,500MT of emergency food assist­ several southernAfrican countr ies...... 7 assets as fema le livestoc k, and some ance (fig ure 2). Increasing numbersof rural ho useholds' comp lete reliance on wild residentsare selling off their jewelry and foods-a re ap pearing with increased livestock;t hey are even selling female ani­ organization, have reported high malnutri· frequency. Cereal prices in many mar· mals,wh ich they normally conserveto tion rates in Assaba,B rakna, and Gorgol kets are very high and cont inue to rise. rebuild herds. Becauseof limited supply, Wilayas.One indicator of the gravity of the Governments and do nors in Chad cereal prices in key marketsac ross the coun­ situation is that local residents in some areas have askedaid workers traveling through if and Mauritania are devising strateg ies try were two to three times higher than their usual February levels in most areas( figure 3), particular wild plants are edible. to avert food crises, but th ey need to placing cereal purchasesbeyond reach of the WFPhas recommended several inter­ accelerate their efforts. In Niger, dia log poorest . Total reliance on wild foods has ventions to respondto the severe food between the Government and dono rs been the norm over the past few months. shortagesin severala reas of t he country, abou t this year's foo d security situat ion Doctors Without Borders-Spain and Dou­ including a price stabilization plan to make has been sporadic. los Community, a local nongovernmental food supplies more accessible to the poor, food-for-work activities,and a school feeding Mauritania-Vulnerable Areas program. The FoodSec urity Commission (CSA)has purchased5,800 MT of food commodities (wheat, rice,o il, and powdered milk) from

Tiris Mauritania-People Affect ed and Zemmour • Affected Food Aid Required, Dakhlet Apri l-September 1997 Nouadhibou • Seve rely Affected Wilaya Populationin EstimatedFood Aid Need(Es timated) (MT2 • Most Severely Affected Hodhf ch( hargui 11,17S 1,836 Hodh ElG harbi 19,836 1,642 Assaba 17,SS8 2,282 Gorgo! S0,271 4, 163 Brakn a 34,408 2,849 Traru 6,409 Sll Guidimaka 27,0S6 2,240 HodhEl Gharbi Tagan1 12 287 I 017 Assaba Total 200,000 16,S60 Guidimaka SourDiffa Department), Ouallam Nigeria.Nige rian grain usually enters Nige­ Figure 3 FEWS,February1997 {Tillabery Department),Tch intabaraden and rien markets around January, but this year's Tahoua(Tahoua Department), and Tanout high cereal prices in Nigeria, high transporta­ local merchants;i t has slated 3,300 MT for and Goure (Zinder Department) and tion costs,and Nigeria's new taxes on expor­ free food distributions and the remainder for throughout AgadezDepartment (figure 5). tation have limited cereal imports. subsidized sale. Distribution of these com­ Due to poor harvests,poor pasture, and civil The Government of Niger has distributed modities is under way,but supplies will soon unrest in the north, approximately 500,000 2,500MT of free food in Ollelewa and Gan­ run out and the situation- especiallyfo r personsare highly vulnerable to food insecu­ gara Cantons(Ta nout Arrondissement), young children- will deteriorate further if rity. Abnormal migrations of entire families northern Mirriah Arrondissement( Zinder distributions are not continued.T he Govern­ in Decembera nd January in Tanout and Department), BambeyCanton (Tahoua ment is distributing a large portion of the TahouaArrondissements i ndicate that food Arrondissement), and Ouallam Arrondisse­ 3,300MT of free food in Nouakchott and security there is deteriorating more quickly ment. Additional distributions are neededin Nouadhibou and in Wilayasnot identified by than had been anticipated. these and in other vulnerable areas. The WFP,leav ing, at most, 1,900 MT of emergency Cerealsupplies in most markets in Niger national food security reserve contains only food for the eight Wilayastargeted by WFP. are low. Data from the National Cereal Price about 4,500 MT at this time. Donorsar e meeting regularly in Nouakchott Market Information System( SIM) for the first The food security situation in parts of to make or confirm pledges of emergency 3 weeksof January indicate that millet prices rural Niger is worrisome, largely because food aid. have continued to rise throughout the coun­ dialog between the Governmentand its try and are at extremely high levels for this donor partners- on the magnitude of food Chad time of year (figure 6). Animal prices are sta­ shortagesi n these areas- has been spo­ Evidence of food insecurity continues to ble in Diffa and Zinder Departments, but radic. Consequently, measuresto avert severe appear among the poorest populations of increasingmillet prices have worsened terms food hardship between May and August are Chad's Batha,Bi lti ne, and KanemPrefectures, not yet in the planning stage. where collection of wild foods, salesof ani­ Chad-People Affected and mals,and migration all exceedtypica l levels. Food Aid Require d, Mali FEWSrecently visited Salamatand Moyen­ April-September 1997 Foodsecur ity in Mali is generally satisfactory. Chari Prefecturesto evaluatethe berbere Prefecture Populationin EstimatedFood Aid Riceha rvestshave begun along the Niger Need(Estimated) (MT) (recessional sorghum) harvest now in prog­ River in Segou,Mopti , Tombouctou,and Gao Billine 128,287 5,543 ressand found that limited residual soil Regions, and prospectsare good except in a Kanem 159,604 6,896 moisture had causedsign ificant decreasesin lac 67,672 2,924 few areas where there have been problems area planted and in yields,espec ially in Am OuaddaY 37,233 1,238 wit h seedling establishment or dike mainte­ Timan Subprefecture (SalamatPrefect ure). It Gu~ra 12,637 437 nance. Recessionaland off-seasoncrops are now appearslikely that the berbere harvest 8atha 27,395 964 progressingwell, except in GoundamCerc le will total only 50,000MT, we ll below the Chari·Baoui,mi 76239 2,635 (the most important recessional farming anticipated 91,000MT. Total 509,667 20,687 area in Tombouctou Region),w here there has With the renewed availability of cereals AdditioMI been crop damagefollowing the collapseof after the berbere harvest,pr icesin Chad Nomads 153,300 5,300 the main dam at Lake Horo. should remain stable, though unseasonably Source:Chad Early Waming Systcm 1 FEWS/Chad Livestockcon dit ions are generally satis­ high, for the next few months. During the Figure4 FEWS,Febru•ry1997 factory as herds move to their dry-season

2 FEWSbulletin AFR/97-02,February 25 , 1997 to internal civil unrest in Algeria- are Normally,the rainy seasonexte nds from mid· Niger-Cereal Prices impeding trade. Nationally,millet. sorghum, June through early October,but in 1996it in Key Markets and rice pricesare continuing to fall, did not get under way until the end of July, although they have increasedi n scattered and very litt le rain fell after mid-September. 140 areasas a result of suchfactors as poor rice Farmers indicated that the millet, sorghum, 120 harvestsin some areasand poor off-season and maize production was the worst they prospectsin Goundam Cercle. had seensi nce 1986. In a normal year, fami­ 100 lies begin consuming the new harvest as ~ 80 Burkina Faso early as September;in 1996most families Adequates upplies of locally produced cere· continued to purchasece reals through the ]' 60 als (millet, sorghum, maize,and fonio) are harvest period, and granariesare reportedly 40 availablein most markets acrossBu rkina nearly empty. Faso; the primary exceptionsa re parts of the 20 northern Provincesof Oudalan, Bam,and Burkina Faso­ 0 Namentenga. According to the national Mar­ Agadez Dosso Tillabery ket Information System(S IM), merchantsare Vulnerable Area Diffa Maradl Zlnder purchasingcereals i n large quantities in Surveyed • January 1996 • January1997 Kossi,Sou rou, Mouhoun, and Kenedougou Provincesfor export to Niger,G hana,and as far away as Mauritania. The seasonaldecline Source:FEWS/Niger figure6 FEWS.February1997 in millet prices in provincial capitals began to slow in December,and January prices in pastures.Exceptions are KidaI Region,w here most capitals are higher than they have been Tougouri water is not availablei n areasof adequate since 1991. pasture, and in some areasof KayesRegi on Agropastoral populations in areast hat Namenteng a where animal movementstowa rd the south receivedinadeq uate rainfall during the 1996 occurred up to 3 months early as a result of seasoni n the northern Provincesof Oudalan. poor pasture conditions in Mauritania. Soum, Seno,Yatenga, and Namentenga are Burkina Cereal supplies in markets acrossthe showing signs of food insecurity.A recent Faso country are generally adequate, except in FEWSfield visit to Yalgo Department in KidaI Region, where the distancefrom major Namentenga(figu re 7) confirmed reports of markets in Mali and disruption of supply cereal accessibility problems following the Source:FEWS /BurkinaFaso Figure7 FEIVS,fi?bruary199 7 lines between the Regionand Algeria- due poor 1996 millet, sorghum. and rice harvests.

Horn of Africa

Ethiopia traveled to Borena Zone, they found that ing water and, to some extent, pasture In Ethiopia, dry weather from October 1996 poor rains in some areas had resulted in shortages, most others are experiencing to January 1997 was favorable for meher fewer water points than usual. Pastures normal dry-seasonconditions , and the (main season) harvest activities, and post· were poor in the south and west, as herds of camels, sheep, and goats of the harvest losses have been low, resulting in a reflected in the relatively poor condition of nomadic populations should remain bumper harvest. cattle still in those areas.However, the pas­ largely unaffected. Some herder house­ In late January, rainfall stations in the toral populations most affected by poor holds receive as much as 60 percent of northern, central, and southwestern high· grazing condit ions had long since their income from remittances of family lands reported the first rains of the belg migrated to areas with better pastures. members working in cities and abroad.This (secondary) season,which usually starts in Moreover, livestock markets were still lessensthese households' dependency on February and ends in May.This early start doing a brisk trade and maize prices were income derived from pastoral activities. is favorable for belg crop producers, partic­ low. There are no signs of malnourishment ularly in the highlands of North Shewa, The Disaster Prevention and Prepared· among herder children. South Wello, North Wello, and South Tigray ness Commission announced that it will Zones,whe re they normally plant wheat provide food assistance to about 200,000 Somalia and barley at the first rainfall. persons in Ethiopia's Somali Region. The Somalia Food Security Assessment In recent months, there have been some Reports from nongovernmental organiza· Unit (FSAU)has completed the 1996/97 reports of drought and food insecurity in tions indicate that some areas of this Oeyr(seconda ry season) harvest assess­ the southern rangelands of Borena Zone Region have experienced drought condi­ ment. Final figur es show the harvest to be and Somali Region.When a FEWSteam t ions.While some localities are experienc- around 46,800 MT of maize and sorghum-

FEWSbulletin AFR/97-02,February25, 1997 3 23 percent below initial esti mates released in mid-December. Bay Region sustained Somalia-Food Economy Areas the most dramatic drop in production: 82 percent below the prev ious Dey, sea­ son, offsetting gains from the relatively Nonagr icultura l­ Bo.. ,o good 1996 Gu (main season) harvest. Somalil and Shillin g BARI Although overall cereal product ion for Food Economy -.::_~ -J!'~ both seasons in the 1996/97 agricultural year is 10 percent higher than in 1995/96, the cumulative effect of two poor years has been increased food insecurity in southern Upper Shabelle Valley Somalia. The FSAU has drawn up a vu lnerability Food Economy Areas profile covering February through August Gj Past oral 1997-a period spanning the Ji/oaf (dry) Lower • Camel Agropas toral and the Gu seasons. This profi le identifies Shabell e Valley -,...... food economy areas in which most house­ • Cattl e Agropastoral holds share simi lar livelihoods or pro­ D Irrigated, Floo d Recessional duct ion opportunities and face similar • Rain-Fed Sorghum and Camel constraints on access to food (figure 8). The most vulnerab le populations are herder s D Rain-Fed Maize and Cattle and rain-fed farmers in the camel agro · O Cowpea pastoral belt, herders in t he cattle agro· • Nonagricultura l and/or Urba n pastora l belt, herders and rain-fed farmers in the sorghum -camel belt , farmers in the KM • Fishi ng

rain-fed-maize - catt le belt, and urban pop­ 0 100 200 300 400 ulations in southern Somalia. Source:Soma lia FoodSec urityAssess ment Unit,FEWS /Somalia The short Deyr rains were as much as Fi9ure8 FEWS,February 1 997 200 mm below normal in some areas, according to rainfall estimates from satel­ chasing power has been eroded by season­ income for many households during the lite data . The most vu lnerable households ally high cereal prices and depreciati on of hungry period from March to July. are those whose animals have inadequate the Somali shilling . UNICEF/Operation Lifeline Sudan is con· pasture or water and few opt ions for For now, no general distrib utio n of food duct ing assessments for seed and tool migration, those with few anima ls or a aid is planned in Somalia. Ongoing food distribution for the upcoming planting poor mix of animals, and those with low aid programs, aimed at vulnerable pockets season, which begins in March and April. production of milk or declin ing purchasing of the population, are based on the Large populations in Northern Bahr el power for cereals. Cattle herders are partic­ assumpt ion that the Gu rains, which should Ghazal, Upper Nile, and Jong lei Regions ularly vulnerable, due to high cattle mor­ start in April, will lead to a good crop. need seeds and too ls after suffering dis­ tality from July th rough October 1996, If the Gu rains fail, there could be a placement from civil unrest, a dry spell attributed to trypanosomiasis and other major food security prob lem, especially in during the past growing season, and then diseases.The livestock export market southern Somalia. Consequent ly, with late flooding, all of wh ich contributed to nearly collapsed during that period , with input from FEWS,an interagency Food reducing last year's product ion. The need severe economic consequences for many Security Task Force is developing cont in­ for seeds and tools in Western and Eastern households. gency plans involving increased part icipa­ Equatoria should be minimal, except Many farmers are highly vu lnerable to tion of Somali and internat ional among disp laced and returnee food insecurity because of two consecutive nongovernmenta l organizations in the populations. mediocre harvests. This is part icularly true food, water, and health sectors; purchase of The United Nations launched its appeal in Bardera, Dinsoor, Dolow, Luuq, Tieglow, cereals fro m Ethiopia; position ing of food for hum anitarian assistance for Sudan in and Wanle Weyne Distr icts for sorghum stocks in secure sites in Somalia; and close mid-February. The appea l requests and in Afgoi, Bal ad, Jowhar, Qorioley, and monitoring of market conditions . US$120.8 mill ion, including US$43.1 mil · Wan le Weyne Districts for rain-fed maize. lion for food aid. WFP plans to feed 2.6 mil · In addition, certain areas (such as Baidoa Sudan lion persons, up from 2.1 mill ion last year. and Wajid Districts) continue to experience It is the dry season in southern Sudan. The United Nations estimates that a total civi l insecurity, further limiting the popula · Farmers in lowland plains and along rivers of 2.2 million persons need food assistance tions' ability to cope with poor harvests. where residual moisture permits crop in sout hern Sudan, with the remainder in Urban populations without links to rural growth are cultivat ing off -season crops, the nort h or the trans itional zone. The agricultural areas are dependent on the such as maize, sweet potatoes, vegetables , most severely affected Regions are Bahr el market for nearly all food items. Their pur· and tobacco. These crops prov ide food and Ghazal, Jong lei, and Upper Nile.

4 FEWSbulletin AFR/97·02,Febmary25, 1997 East Africa

Kenya that the private sector would be allowed to Rebuilding Rwanda The Government of Kenyahas declareda import 369,000MT of maize and much of the national disasterbecause of the prolonged 243,000-MTbea n import requirement, and heGovernment of Rwa nda, dono~.andnon ­ drought in Easternand North Eastern Prov­ the private sector has moved quickly to Tgovernmentalorgan izationsare worki ng tocon ­ inces.The resulting food shortagesin these respond. Pressreports in early February indi­ structshe lterto helpthe co untry recoverfrom the war areashave been exacerbatedby a substantial cated that 70,000MT of commerciali mports andto accommodatethevast increase in need for ho us­ national production deficit for 1996/97, from Southern Africa and South America ingb roughton by the recent return sof refuge~. Up to which has led to elevated pricesin key pro­ were in transit to Kenya. 150,000new ho usesare needed, and approximate ly duction areasand major urban centers (fig­ WFP's6 -month (February 1 to July 31, 8,000have been completed . ure 9). 1997)eme rgency operations program has TheGovernment hasdirected that fami liesin r ural In response to the deepening crisis, the been approved. Food assistanceunde r this areasdevo te 2 daysof l abora month andthat Govern ­ Governmenthas increasedb oth the coverage program wil l benefit 205,000a ffected per­ menta nd privateemp loyeescont ribute15 percent of and the scale of its relief distributions. Of sonsin the pastoral districts of North Eastern theirsalaries to the hous ingconstruction effort. Kenya's63 districts, 36 (in Central, Coast, East­ and Eastern Provinces.It will also support an ern, North Eastern, and Rift Valley Provinces) expansion of WFP's ongoing SchoolFeedi ng are now included in the Government's relief Program, which is currently benefiting interviewed by FEWSstate that after 2 years program. Although the total quantity of 210,000 children in 20 districts, to cover an of subsisting on food aid, t hey are eager to maizedisbursed has increased,local agricul­ additional 270,000children in drought­ resume growing and consumingthe foods tural officers have reported that quantities stricken marginal agricultural areas of East­ that they know and prefer,i ncluding distributed per household are still too small ern and CoastP rovinces. bananas,sweet potatoes,cassava, vegetables, to meet the food needs of t he most vulnera­ sorghum.and Irish potatoes. ble households. Rwanda Farmers in most of the country are prepar· The Governmentest imates Kenya'srelief Food security in Rwandaremains fragi le as ing their fields and planting. The European and commercial import requirementsat the Governmentand donors continue to Union, FAO,UNICEF, the UN High Commis­ 639,000MT of maize and 243,000MT of implement relief and rehabilitation activities sioner for Refugees,and GermanTechn ical beans.andit has lifted the ban on maize (seebox at right) aimed at reintegrating Assistance (GTZ)are committed to providing imports and removed all duties and taxes on closeto 1.5 million refugees who have agricultural inputs through nongovernmen­ imported maize and on pulses,mil k, and rice returned since mid-November.WFP w ill con­ tal organizations. Returneesin many areas for relief distributions. In early February, it tinue food distribution - which it estimates have not yet received sufficient seedsand issueda tender for 180,000MT of maize for will total 141,000MT - through the hoes for this season'splant ing, which ends in its strategic reserves. WFP'si mmediate plans June- July harvest period. March.In Kibungo Prefecture,for example, for relief imports include 20,000MT of maize, Returneeshave been receiving free food closet o 300,000persons returned from Tan­ 3,600 MT of beans,and 980 MT of edible oil, aid, but a portion of future distributions will zania in December; at the end of January, and it plans to procure most of the maize in be provided through food-for-work activities, fewer than 30 percent of them had received Ethiopia (seeth is issue'sspecia l report on including projects to increasefood produc­ agricultural inputs. regional trade).It will likely increaserelief tion through land reclamation and to provide The returnees- particularly those with imports once these supplies have been pro­ shelter for families whose homes were accessto bottom lands in Kibungoa nd Umu· cured. The KenyanGovernment an nounced destroyeddu ring the war. Recent returnees tara Prefectures- need sweet potato cut­ tings.Sweet potatoes have a short growing Kenya-February Wholesale Maize Prices in Key cycle and can be harvested 3 months after Markets planting. Farmers who have planted cuttings in January and February,fo r example,will be 1,600 able to harvest in April and May,dur ing the hungry period. ..go1,200 -- f 800 Tanzania t. Vu/i (short rains) production for the 1996/97 .c l:! 400 season (November to February)i s signifi· cantly below averagei n all vuli production 0 areasof Tanzania(figu re 10), except for a few Nairobi Eldoret Kisumu around Lake Victoria. The extremely poor vuli Mombasa Kitale Meru season has reduced both crop and livestock . 1995 1996 . 1997 production and disrupted the domestic Souw~:Ke nyaMin istry of Agri

FEWSbulletin AFR/97·02,February 25, 1997 s becausemost householdsa re able to buy Tanzania-1996 /97 Vu/iSeason Crop Production food in the market and the needy can get and Pasture Outlook food through aid programs. The eastern Districtsof Pallisa and Kumi are experiencing food shortages. The affected populations, representingl esst han 3 percent of the national total,are using \-~,. f various coping strategies.S ome people are drawing on income realized from the recent cotton harvest,ot hers are turning to fishing, and still others are seeking casual employment. Until 1996, there was no significant trade Production Outl ook in beanswith Tanzania, but poor bean pro­ duction in Uganda in 1995an d 1996has fos· • Average tered an informal trade. About 5,000 MT of Below Average beans have come informally into Uganda from Tanzania sinceNovember 1 996. Someof • Well Below Average the beansare being reexported to Kenya, where the price more than compensatesfor Vuli Pastoral Areas­ • Poor Pasture the cost . In the dry period following the second D Non-Vuli Areas season,the Karamojong herders living in the Source:FEWS /Tanzania pastoral northeasternDis tricts of Kotido and Figure 10 FEWS, F•bruary 1997 Moroto normally move their cattle in search of water and pasture.T his year,p asture con· In the northern pastoral and agropastoral and December) and the poor rainfall so far ditions in Moroto are poor.and the Kara· areas,the poor vuli rainfall has causedcatch · are not very encouraging. Although it is still mojong are driving their cattle in greater ments,rese rvoirs,a nd streamsto dry up, lim­ early in the season,wit h adequate time numbers to the north-central Districts of iting herders' accessto grazing areaswhere remaining for a turnaround, area planted is Soroti and Lira. Historically,the movements pasture is still available and forcing them to likely to be below average because of the of t hesehe rders haveextended into Kitgum move their herds long distancesin searchof late start. and Gulu Districts,as well asno rth into water and pasture.Alt hough livestock condi· southern Sudan, but civil insecurity in north­ tions have deteriorated,there are no reports Uganda ern Uganda (seebox below) and continued of unusually high cattle mortality. In Uganda,the harvesting of second-season insecurity in southern Sudan have restricted The impact of the poor vuli production has crops is complete.P roduction appearsto movementsma inly to Soroti and Lira Dis­ been limited by the fact that the 1996masika have been about 30 percent below normal, tricts.T his will not posea problem to food (long rains) harvest was relatively good becauser ains were either poorly distributed security as long asconfl ict does not arise acrossTanzania . In addition, the areasexpe ri­ or excessivedu ring critical growing periods. between resident farmersand pastoralists encing a particularly poor 1996/97vuli sea­ The reduced production doesnot posea over accessto land. son depend on vuli crops for only 20 to threat to national food securityat this time, 30 percent of annual production. Households in thesea reasare experiencing hardship Conflict in Northern Uganda Eroding Food nonetheless,because many sell most of their masika production in expectation of the vuli Security harvest . Theseho useholds will have to rely n northernUganda, the effects of massacresand mass tioni n theDis trictslisted above now live in protected heavily on market purchasesto meet their Ikidnapingsby th e Lord'sResis tanceA rmya nd the camps.following the mos t recent waveof violencein the food needs until the masika harvest in June. WestNile Bank fro nt continueto severelydisrupt crop hardest hitD istrictsof Gu lu andK itgum,Wf P estima tes Cerealpr ices rose sharply in January, productionand t rade.Many residents ofArua, Nebbi, that220,000 perso nsout of anest imatedtota l popula­ partly becauseof the poor vuli harvest and Moyo,Gulu ,andK itgumD istrictswe re unableto tend tion of849 ,900h avebeen affected by the conflict. WFP's partly becauseof informal cross-border trade theirfields d uringth eseco ndseaso n or to completehar · limitedfood aid interven tionplanned for t hesetwo Dis­ with Kenya (see this issue's special report on vesting ofwha tevercrops they managed to c ultivate. trictswil l assistapproxima tely 100,000dis placedper · regional trade).Ho useholdsneed a good Allhoughfood is ava ilable inl ocalmarkets,prices are sonsfrom January to June.The emergency program is 1997masika harvest to rebuild their food unseasonably highand some loca l clinicsre port unusu· scheduledto terminate at harvesttime, but farmers who stocks and assets,but the delayedonset of allyh igh numbersof severe malnutritioncases . havebeen unable to cultivatewill cont inueto facefood the masika seasoni n central and southern Manypeop lehave moved to Government-protec ted shortages. Tanzania (rains began in December and Janu­ townsfor secu rity,andas m uchas a third of thepopu la· ary instead of their usual start in November

6 FEWSbulletin AFR/97·02,Februory25 , 1997 Southern Africa

a inf all was moderate to heavy across affected by waterlogging. Except in the Southern Africa ­ Rmost of southern Africa during January Beitbridge area, rangelands continue to and February (figure 11). After a slow start, Areas of Heavy improve, leading to a correspond ing cumulative rainfal l is now approaching nor· Rainfall, January 1 to improvement in the condition of livestock. mal over much of the region. In many areas, Nearly 1.2 million farmers received however, the concentrat ion of rainfall in a February10, 1997 inputs under the Seed Pack program, but in relat ively brief period has hindered agricul· many cases the distribut ion occurred too tura l activities and crop development. late for them to use the seeds this season. Flooding along river valleys and Jake· In Beitbridge District, where rainfall shores has damaged or destroyed crops remains below average, some farmers who and forced peop le from their homes in obtained fertilizer under the program have Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. Crop reportedly resold it or exchanged it for stress and soil nutrient loss as a result of maize. Repayment of loans received during the waterlogging of soils have been 1995/96 under the Grain Loan Program has reported in Zimbabwe , Zambia, Malawi, and been suspended. At the time of the suspen­ Mozambique. These problems, coupled with sion, only about 23 percent of the tota l farmers' inabil ity to get to water logged amount loaned had been repaid. fields to continue planting and weeding, The price of maize on the Zimbabwe will reduce both hectarage planted and SouthAfrica Agricultural Commodity Exchange yields. Nevertheless, harvests in most coun­ (ZIMACE) increased from 2$1,360 per met· t ries in southern Africa should still be ric ton at the end of December to Z$1,650 above average. at the end of January (ZS1 = USS0.09).The Heavy Rainfall wholesale price of maize meal also Zambia Very Heavy Rainfall increased slightly, following the Grain Mar· Moderate to heavy rainfall cont inues across keting Board's decision to increase the Zambia. Except in some northern areas, retail pr ice charged for maize from ZSl,550 Source:FEWSNI cumulat ive rainfall is now closer to normal, Figure11 FEWS,Febr uary 1997 to ZS1,675 per metr ic ton. and rainfall in most of the country is ade­ quate for crop development. The Agricultural Market Information Center Mozamb ique In parts of Sinazongwe (Southern Prov­ attr ibutes this relat ive stability to the Most of Mozambique received adequate ince) and Western and Luapula Provinces, increasing maturity of the Zambian cereal rainfall during January and February, the flooding displaced households and dam­ market, as well as to the continued avail· main exception being the far north, which aged crops. Little or no impact is likely out · ability of substantial stocks of cereals from remained dry. Nevertheless, crops planted side the flooded areas, and the Government the 1995/96 harvest. in the north in December have emerged of Zambia, with WFP assistance, has sent and appear to be developing normally. food and medical supplies there. Zimbabwe Crops are in a broader range of stages in Heavy rains in the third week of January Farmers have comp leted planting across the south, where farmers are plant ing a led to waterlogging of soils in some areas. most of Zimbabwe, the primary exceptions second crop, consisting of pulses and some Leaching of nitrogen due to heavy rainfall being Hwange District in the far west and maize. contributed to yellowing of maize leaves in Mwenezi and Chiredzi Districts in the Flooding along river valleys in the center parts of Southern, Central, and Lusaka Prov­ south , where planting of maize and sor­ of the country has damaged crops and inces. An outbreak of the maize stalk borer ghum was still under way as of the end of dr iven people from their homes in Goron­ in Kalomo District (Southern Province) has January. About 2.27 miJJion ha will have gosa, Buzi, and Chibabava Districts . now been controlled. Southern and Central been planted to crops when the process The price of maize has increased by an Provinces are two of the three most impor · has been completed, about average for the average of 27 percent in Maputo, Xai-Xai, tant maize-produc ing regions in Zambia, 1990's. and lnhambane, major consumption mar­ but maize crops are generally in good con· Agricultural conditions in Zimbabwe are kets located in defic it product ion areas of dition across most of rest of the country, generally good. However, the unusually the south. In the north the wholesale price and the harvest is still expected to be aver­ heavy rainfall in January and February has for white maize actually has decli ned by age to slightly above average. made weeding and other agricultural activ · about 6 percent. This pattern shows the Maize prices fell slightly in most areas ities more diffic ult, and the related leaching influence of the flood ing in the central part during January. The main exceptions we re has led to problems with nitrogen defi · of the country, which has impeded trade the cities of Lusaka and Kabwe (Central ciency. Early planted maize is doing well, between the north and south. Province), which reported retail maize price but the late-planted maize crop in various The low degree of market integrat ion, increases of 12 and 8 percent, respectively. parts of the center and north has been particu larly between the deficit areas of

FEWSbulletin AFR/97-02,February25, 1997 7 the south and the surplus-producing areas of the center and north, is a persistent con­ Malawi- Flooding in cern in Mozambique. Poor transportation links between north and south and the fre­ the Shire River Valley quency of disruption by flood ing are signif · icant barriers to Mozambique'smeeting a larger share of its consumption require­ ments from domestic production. Areas of Floodin g in Malawi Chikw awa and Nsanj e In Malawi, flooding along tributaries of the Lower Shire River in early February (fig- • ure 12) has forced as many as 100,000 per· sons in the valley to flee their homes.The President of Malawi declared the area a dis­ aster on February 16, and the Government Kalambo and donors are responding by providing emergency relief assistance. Cumulative rainfall received in central and southern Malawi by late January ranged from normal to above normal for the season.Nutrient leaching and water· Mpatsa logging could hamper crop development. In the north, cumulative rainfall remained below normal, and farmers in the areas that were most affected by the dry Sour<

TheFEWS bulletin is publishedfor the United StatesAgency for InternationalDevelopment (USA ID), AfricaBureau, AssistantAdministrator. Dis asterResponse Coordination (AFR/ANDRC),by: Th e FEWSProject, No.698 ·0491, (ContractNo.AOT ·0491·C·00·5021·00).Contractor. Associates in Rural Development,Inc., Burlington,Vermont.

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FEWSbulletin AFR/97·02,February25, 1997 FEWS Special Report

February 25, 1997 Greater Horn of Africa SR 97 -1

Regional Trade Important for Increasing nizedth e seriousnessof the droughtt here.The increasingcross-bo rder marketintegration in the Food Security arearesu lted in the rapidand efficient moveme nt of foodinto Kenya,decreasingfood insecurity for hecross-border gra in tradein theGreater Hom nia havethe lowest prices in thereg ion,whi le Kenya Kenyanconsumers. Tof Africa(GHA) makes an im portantand la rgely hasthe highest. undocumentedco ntribution to foodsecur ity Ethiopia,tradit ionally a fooddeficit country,has Benefits for Producers throughoutt he JO-Countryregion.A lthoughmuch o f beenexporting maize ,which could total 200,000 MT Regionaltrade a lsobe nefitsproducers in exporting thet radeis "unofficial,"it isnot restrictedto petty for 1996/97,to Kenya.Initially,li miteda mountsof this countries.Reliable accessto exportmarkets can p ro­ trade, with individualsse llinga fewbags of grain foodarrived by l andthrough unofficial exports,stab i· vide an incentivefor farmers to increaseproduction, acrosscommon borders to profitfrom m inorp rice lizingfood prices in threeof thedistricts hi t hardest dampeningthe supp ly and pricevolatility seen in differentials.In manycases, it involves largtH

Supply Fluctuations and Opportunities for Trade t Becauseof the diverseproduction and cl imatic sys· ternsin the GHA.volatil ityof grainprod uctionis Sud~ , lower at anaggregated regional leve l than for indi· 0111ttoulll~ vidualcou ntries.Droughts, which are a regularfea­ \ ·.. ture throughoutthe region,seldomaffect all parts of I . all countriess imultaneously.Forexamp le, thisyear ~ easternKenya and southernSoma liaare faci ng ..() drought-inducedfood defic itsw hilemost agricul· 0 " turalareas of Ethiopia and Tanzaniahave food sur · pluses.Regio nal tradeis already smoot hingout these supplyfluctuations and he lpingstem pr iceincreases forconsumers in the deficitareas while li mitingprice Zaire dropsfor prod ucersin surplusar eas. ,/' ,.,.. 0 Benefits fo r Consumers Tanzania · ..i• :::, Regionaltrade benefits co nsumersin importing " countries.Kenya'slarge maizedeficits in 1993/94 Grain Flows attractedim portsfrom Uganda andTanzan ia,proba· f Major bly exceeding270,000 MT, that helped keep food , pricesdown and served as a critical bufferuntil : Minor importsbegan to arrivethrough the port of Mom· basa.Thisyear.reg ionalmovements of food- this f Major 1996/97 0 soo 1000 timefrom Ethiopia and Tanzania -a remeet ing KM Kenya'seno rmousdeficit. Price differen tialsa re driv· Soum~:FEWS FEWS,Ft bruary 1997 ingthese movements (figure 2l:Et hiopiaa nd Tanza· Figure1 urban centersi n Tanzania.WesternTig rayZon e in weatherconverge. Re liefprograms and markets out · exportand i mportmarke tsare an important force Ethiopiaexports much ofits prod uction to Eritrea.In side the GHAa re importantpote ntial alternative mar· limiting thepotent ial benefitsof tradein the GHA. thesecases.prox imityand c ross-border pricediffer ­ kets.lfWFP. non governmental organizations,and Governmentsin the region oftenintroduce polic ies entialsma ke it moreprofrtable to exportfood than donor countriescould find r eliable suppliers,they aimeda t encovragingor discouragingtrade i n r sellit on thedomestic ma rket. wouldr ely more onsupp liesin the region for emer· orderto achieveshort -termobjectives . Staggeredtimi ng of harvestsi n neighboring gencyprograms . Inrecent years, w hen weatherpat· Governments understandably want to ensure countriesa lsoprovides important export opportun i­ ternsh averesu ltedin a defKit in southernAfri ca, adequatedo mesticfood ava ilability,but banning ties.Throughexport pro motion programs,the Ugan­ easternAfrican countries have had a surplus.andvi ce exportswhen th e countryhas a national leveldeficit danG011emment ise n couraging fannersto capitalize versa. If thisreverse relat ionshipc ontinues.itcou ld doesnot guarantee th at foodw ill movefrom su r­ on the factthatt heirharvest occurs 1 to 2 months openop portunitiesfor interreg ionalt rade between plusa reasto deficita reasw ithinth e countryor even beforeth e main harvestbeg insi n Kenya.In Julya nd easternand southern Africa . thatfood w ill not leavethe country.Asnoted above, Augustbefo re theK enyan harvestbegi ns,U gandan in manyGHA countries, prod uction zonesa re fannerscanfind readymarl

FEWSSpecial Report I, February25, 1997 page2