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Asia Consumer & Media Daily Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Periodical Date China 21 October 2013 Consumer Asia Consumer & Media Daily Anne Ling Lydia Ling Research Analyst Research Analyst Consumer & Media Daily (+852) 2203 6177 (+852) 2203 6181 [email protected] [email protected] Winnie Mak Company news Research Analyst China/HK (+852) 2203 6178 [email protected] Hutchison – Strategic review of Parknshop Phoenix Satellite Television – Equity transfer by Star Entertainment to TPG China Green – Disposal of wholly-owned subsidiary Next Media – Shutting down Sharp Daily in Hong Kong Indonesia Gudang Garam – Government is starting to enforce closure of excise loophole (Reggy Susanto) Thailand CP All – Total bond yield below 5% highly likely (Chalinee Congmuang) India Asian Paints – Gross margin expansion for Akzo is a positive read- through for APNT (Manoj Menon) Godrej Consumer – Revenue growth visibility deserves a premium (Manoj Menon) Global Coach, Inc – 1Q earnings not a game changer, out-year plan remains the key catalyst (Dave Weiner) Sector news China/HK China Luxury – DFS to be renamed T-Galleria, focus on e-marketing strategy Global Consumer – Shiseido may sell two sub-brands to L’oreal China Catering – Subway targets to open 440 stores in China in two years China Retail – Walmart to close 25 stores in 2014 China Retail – Cross-border e-commerce platform to be unveiled in Shanghai Free Trade Zone China F&B – Beijing Yanjing Brewery 3Q results China F&B – MIIT to support Beijing dairy industry China media – SARFT further restricts entertainment programmes HK Media – Protest against HKTV license refusal China F&B – CCTV’s accusation of Starbucks on grabbing high profit in China Global Global F&B – Fire destroys world's largest sugar trader's warehouse ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 054/04/2013. Asia Consumer and Media team Lydia Ling +852 2203 6181 (HK/China Consumer/Media) Gaurav Bhatia +91-22-6658 4055 (Indian Consumer/Media) Manoj Menon +91-22-7158 4358 (Indian Consumer/Media) Jihyun Song +82 2 316 8906 (Korea Retail/consumer) Reggy Susanto+62-21-3189-527 (Indonesia Consumer) Michelle Foong +60-3-2053 6769 (Malaysia Consumer) Derek Ivan Bloomfield +66-2-633 6468 (Thailand consumer) Chalinee Congmuang +66-2-633 6482 (Thailand Consumer) Michael Bengson +63-2-894 6636 (Philippine Consumer/Media) Anne Ling +852 2203 6177 (HK/China Consumer/Media, Team Leader) (Office) +852 91221099 (Mobile) Winnie Mak +852 2203 6178 (HK/China Consumer/Media) Joelian Tseng +886-2-2192 2841 (Taiwan Consumer) 21 October 2013 Asia Consumer & Media Daily Company news Hutchison – Strategic review of Parknshop (0013.HK, HKD96.8, NR) Hutchison announced that following the completion of its initial strategic review of Parknshop’s supermarket retail business, it has come to the conclusion that the sale of Parknshop business through a private market transaction at this time will not deliver maximum value to the shareholders of the company. Hutchison said it has decided to continue to implement an accelerated growth strategy for Parknshop business with particular focus to mainland China instead of pursuing a private sale of the business. The company has also decided to expand its strategic review process to include all options to maximize the value and future growth potential of A.S. Watson & Company retail business in the future, including the possibility of public offerings of all or some of those businesses. However, the company said that it is not considering giving up control of any of the businesses. Source: 18 October 2013, company announcement Figure 1: Parknshop sales milestones 20-Jul-13 Hutchison announced the intention of sale of Parknshop 16-Aug-13 Market information: Eight letters of intent obtained by Hutchison for Parknshop 17-Sep-13 Mr. Li Ka Shing clarified to media that the group has no intention of withdrawing investment 02-Oct-13 Local press reported that Hutchison plans to spinoff Watsons in the future 1 or 1.5 years to finance HKD78bn 09-Oct-13 Market information: CRE stepped out of the bid for Parknshop 17-Oct-13 Australia press reported that Woolworths provided the price of USD3bn (HKD23.4bn) to participate in the bid 18-Oct-13 Hutchison announced to cease the plan of private sale of Parknshop Source: Deutsche Bank, company announcement Phoenix Satellite Television – Equity transfer by Star Entertainment to TPG (2008.HK, HKD2.8, NR) Phoenix Satellite Television announced that Star Entertainment has entered into an agreement to sell its 607m shares (or 12.5% stake) at HKD2.73 to TPG. Upon the completion of the share transfer, Star Entertainment will no longer be the shareholder of the company and TPG will become a substantial shareholder of the company. Source: 18 October 2013, company announcement China Green – Disposal of wholly-owned subsidiary (0904.HK, HKD0.86, NR) Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 21 October 2013 Asia Consumer & Media Daily China Green announced that Dragon Choice Enterprise, Shanghai Kang Mei Pharmaceutical Consulting Ltd, Zhonglu (Shanghai) Industry Investment Limited and China Green Foods have entered into an equity transfer contract wherein Dragon Choice has agreed to sell the sale interest (100% equity interest in Zhonglu (Shanghai)) to Shanghai Kang Mei for a consideration of RMB104m in cash. Zhonglu (Shanghai) was incorporated on 21 August 2006 in the PRC and has a registered capital of USD10m all of which is owned by Dragon Choice. The company registered a net profit of RMB0.4m in 2011 and a net loss of RMB2.2m in 2012. Its net assets stood at RMB73.4m as at 31 December 2012. Source: 20 October 2013, company announcement Next Media – Shutting down Sharp Daily in Hong Kong (0282.HK, HKD0.88, NR) Next Media announced that it will cease the publication of Sharp Daily, a free daily newspaper in Hong Kong, with effect from 21 October. The company said the move is in a bid to consolidate its print operations in Hong Kong and enable it to focus resources on its profit making operations. Source: 18 October 2013, company announcement Indonesia Gudang Garam – Government is starting to enforce closure of excise loophole (GGRM.JK, IDR33,950, Buy) Two of Sampoerna’s subsidiaries will see excise hike of 45% this month After almost a year of delay, the government has finally started to enforce the regulation closing a loophole that allows GGRM’s major competitors to pay c.30% lower excise by setting up subsidiaries/affiliates. Market leader HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ, NR, CP:Rp66,350) has received notification from the government that two of its subsidiaries Harapan Maju Sentosa (producing the Vegas Mild brand) and Persada Makmur Indonesia (Trend Mild brand), which account for c. 4% of Sampoerna’s volumes, will have to pay higher excise of Rp355/stick effective this month. Previously these two companies were classified as small scale producers allowing them to pay an excise of Rp245/stick. We estimate that to offset the excise increase prices for these two brands will have to be increased by c. 25%, which would put them at similar prices to GGRM’s Surya Pro Mild. GGRM to be main beneficiary of closure of excise loophole We expect GGRM to be the major beneficiary from the closure of this loophole as it doesn’t have any cigarette subsidiaries. Other major cigarette companies, such as Djarum, Sampoerna and Bentoel have production subsidiaries, which allow them to sell cheaper priced cigarettes than GGRM. We estimate that excise could increase by 25-58% for certain brands that account for c. 10% of industry volumes if the government fully enforces the closure of the excise loophole. This will allow GGRM to tag along on any price increase and boost profitability, especially on its low-priced Surya Pro Mild brand. It will also create a more level playing field for GGRM and hasten industry consolidation. Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 21 October 2013 Asia Consumer & Media Daily Background of regulation Recall that the initial regulation to close the loophole (Ministry of Finance Decree No. 191/PMK.04/2010) was issued in November 2010 and was meant to be enforced starting in November 2012. However, the regulation was revised in April 2013 and again in September 2013. The latest regulation states that cigarette companies that are subsidiaries or affiliates (at least 20% ownership, share the same management, or share procurement of raw material) of other companies will have to pay excise based on the consolidated volumes of the whole group, instead of based on the production level at the individual companies. Please refer to full report: http://gm.db.com/ger/document/ShowPdf.eqsr?productIDMore=0900b8c0876ae5bb Reggy Susanto Thailand CP All – Total bond yield below 5% highly likely (CPALL.BK, THB38.50, Buy) After book building yesterday, CPALL announced the company could issue up to Bt47bn in bonds. Coupon rates and amount on offer for its 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bonds are as follows; Our take: Note that the subscription period will begin by late October. At the moment we do not know for certain what the exact effective bond rate will be. That being said, we continue to estimate that total yield should remain under 5% given that the guided rates are quite in line with our projection. Maintain Buy with a TP of Bt47 Please refer to full report: http://gm.db.com/ger/document/ShowPdf.eqsr?productIDMore=0900b8c0876b419c Chalinee Congmuang India Asian Paints – Gross margin expansion for Akzo is a positive read-through for APNT (ASPN.BO, INR486.95, Sell) Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 5 21 October 2013 Asia Consumer & Media Daily 10% sales growth, gross margin expansion of 182bps Akzo Nobel India (no.4 paints player) reported 10% sales growth YoY in 2QFY14 (better than 2% YoY in 1QFY14) with gross margin expansion of 182bps.
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