TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH Number E-C195 April 2015 Traffic and Transportation Simulation Looking Back and Looking Ahead: Celebrating 50 Years of Traffic Flow Theory, A Workshop January 12, 2014 Washington, D.C. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2015 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OFFICERS Chair: Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis Vice Chair: James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, Texas Division Chair for NRC Oversight: Susan Hanson, Distinguished University Professor Emerita, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts Executive Director: Neil J. Pedersen, Transportation Research Board TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2015–2016 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES COUNCIL Chair: Daniel S. Turner, Emeritus Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa Technical Activities Director: Mark R. Norman, Transportation Research Board Peter M. Briglia, Jr., Consultant, Seattle, Washington, Operations and Preservation Group Chair Alison Jane Conway, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, New York, Young Members Council Chair Mary Ellen Eagan, President and CEO, Harris Miller Miller and Hanson, Inc., Burlington, Massachusetts, Aviation Group Chair Barbara A. Ivanov, Director, Freight Systems, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, Freight Systems Group Chair Paul P. Jovanis, Professor, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Safety and Systems Users Group Chair Thomas J. Kazmierowski, Senior Consultant, Golder Associates, Inc., Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, Design and Construction Group Chair Mark S. Kross, Consultant, Jefferson City, Missouri, Planning and Environment Group Chair Hyun-A C. Park, President, Spy Pond Partners, LLC, Arlington, Massachusetts, Policy and Organization Group Chair Harold R. (Skip) Paul, Director, Louisiana Transportation Research Center, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Baton Rouge, State DOT Representative Stephen M. Popkin, Director, Safety Management and Human Factors, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Transportation for Research and Technology, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Rail Group Chair James S. Thiel, Consultant, Madison, Wisconsin, Legal Resources Group Chair Thomas H. Wakeman III, Research Professor, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey, Marine Group Chair David C. Wilcock, Vice President and National Practice Leader for Rail and Transit, Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., Norwood, Massachusetts, Public Transportation Group Chair TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH CIRCULAR E-C195 Traffic and Transportation Simulation Looking Back and Looking Ahead: Celebrating 50 Years of Traffic Flow Theory, a Workshop January 12, 2014 Washington Marriott Wardman Park Hotel Washington, D.C. April 2015 Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 www.TRB.org TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH CIRCULAR E-C195 ISSN 0097-8515 The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council, which serves as an independent advisor to the federal government and others on scientific and technical questions of national importance. The National Research Council is jointly administered by the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Transportation Research Board is distributing this Circular to make the information contained herein available for use by individual practitioners in state and local transportation agencies, researchers in academic institutions, and other members of the transportation research community. The information in this circular was taken directly from the submission of the authors. This document is not a report of the National Research Council or the National Academy of Sciences. Operations and Preservation Group Peter Briglia, Chair Operations Section Robert Bertini, Chair Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics Robert Bertini, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, Chair Soyoung Ahn, Arizona State University, Secretary Constantinos Antoniou Victor Knoop Robert Sheehan Christine Buisson Jorge Laval Alexander Skabardonis Koohong Chung Ludovic Leclercq James Sturrock Winnie Daamen George List Tomer Toledo Soumya Dey Hani Mahmassani Avinash Unnikrishnan Jing Dong Michael Mahut Hans Van Lint Nathan Gartner Stephen Mattingly Peter Vortisch Vikash Gayah Monica Menendez Yibing Wang Nikolas Geroliminis Yu Nie Zhongren Wang Eric Gonzales Yanfeng Ouyang Ethan Xuan Mohammed Hadi Vincenzo Punzo Marguerite Zarrillo Samer Hamdar Meead Saberi Kalaee H. Zhang Majid Sarvi Transportation Research Board Richard A. Cunard, Senior Program Officer Freda R. Morgan, Senior Program Associate Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 www.TRB.org Lea Camarda, Production Editor; Jennifer Correro, Proofreading; Jennifer J. Weeks, Layout Preface n 1963, the TRB Committee on Traffic Flow Theory (TO-9) and the Committee on I Characteristics of Traffic Flow (TO-12) were formed, with D. L. Gerlough and H. L. Michael as chairs, respectively. In 1971, the two committees merged to form the Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics (AHB45). In recognition and celebration of these 50 years of traffic flow theory, several special events were organized in 2014, including a Sunday workshop held on January 12, 2014, at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, D.C. With the accomplishments of the past 50 years in mind, the workshop focused on traffic and transportation simulation—looking back and looking ahead. Coincidentally, this theme was also consistent with the Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting theme, Celebrating Our Legacy, Anticipating Our Future. That year’s theme was adopted because it was the year of the final TRB Annual Meeting at the Connecticut Avenue hotels, where it was held for nearly 60 years. It was an appropriate time to recognize past accomplishments in the simulation field, reflect on the present state of the research community, and identify key future directions. The committee invited top experts in the field to provide discussion papers on the history, current status, and future of traffic simulation. The audience was asked to provide input and frame a forward-looking discussion of future trends and research needs. We are very pleased to publish eight of these papers in this e-circular as part of our legacy. The views expressed in the technical papers are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of TRB or the National Research Council. The papers have not been subjected to the formal TRB peer review process. —Constantinos Antoniou, National Technical University of Athens, Greece George List, North Carolina State University Robert Lawrence Bertini, Portland State University iii Contents Traffic Flow Modeling: Genealogy ...............................................................................................1 Femke van Wageningen-Kessels, Serge P. Hoogendoorn, Kees Vuik, and Hans van Lint Brief History of Traffic Simulation ............................................................................................17 Edward B. Lieberman Evolution of the TEXAS Model for Intersection Traffic Simulation Animation and Traffic Flow Theory Milestones ....................................................30 Thomas W. (Tom) Rioux History of VISSIM’s Development .............................................................................................55 Peter Vortisch Evolution of SUMO’s Simulation Model ...................................................................................64 Michael Behrisch, Laura Bieker, Jakob Erdmann, Melanie Knocke, Daniel Krajzewicz, and Peter Wagner Some Thoughts on Future Directions for Managing Uncertainty in Stochastic Traffic Models (Abstract Only) ............................................................................84 Vincenzo Punzo Big Data and the Calibration and Validation of Traffic Simulation Models ..........................92 Kaan Ozbay, Sandeep Mudigonda, Ender Faruk Morgul, Hong Yang, and Bekir Bartin Looking Forward, Looking Back on Computer Simulation Models of Safety ....................123 William Young, Amir Sobhani, Kayvan Aghabayk, and Majid Sarv Appendix: Thoughts on Traffic Simulation Models (Powerpoint Presentation) .................138 Alexander Skabardonis v Traffic Flow Modeling Genealogy FEMKE VAN WAGENINGEN-KESSELS SERGE P. HOOGENDOORN KEES VUIK HANS VAN LINT Delft University of Technology ighty years ago, Bruce Greenshields presented the first traffic flow model at the Annual E Meeting of the Highway Research Board. Since then, many models and simulation tools have been developed. We show a model tree with four families of traffic flow models, all descending from Greenshields’ model. The tree shows the historical development of traffic flow modeling and the relations between models. Based on the tree we discuss the main trends and future developments in traffic flow modeling and simulation. INTRODUCTION Traffic flow models have been applied for almost