Singapore Company Update Thai Beverage Public Company
Bloomberg: THBEV SP | Reuters: TBEV.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
DBS Group Research . Equity 26 Nov 2020
B rain Box BUY (O ur NEW Pilot Research Platform) is available to Institutional Investors Last Traded Price (25 Nov 2020): S$0.720 (STI : 2,869.55) on Demand. Please contact your DBSV Institutional Sales contact for a Price Target 12-mth: S$0.93 (29% upside) (Prev S$0.90) demonstration.
Analyst Bottoms up and farewell, FY20! Andy SIM, CFA +65 6682 3718 [email protected] Alfie YEO +65 6682 3717 [email protected] Investment Thesis: Region's leading player at -1.3/ -0.5SD below 5-/ 10-year average. Thai What’s New Beverage Public Company (THBEV) is transforming into the region's • FY20 net attributable earnings down just 2.2%; above leading beverage player. Its valuation is still attractive at c.16x FY21F expectations price-to-earnings (PE), -1.3/ -0.5SD (standard deviation) below its 5-year/ 10-year historical average. • Spirits segment stronger than expected; other segments Resilience during pandemic, poised for recovery. As seen in its 4Q20/ showed sequential improvements FY20 results, net attributable earnings are down by just 2% despite the • Deleveraging faster than expected on robust cashflow; impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stable spirits consumption in the Thai loan agreements for refinancing should allay concerns market provides recurring cashflow. Improved contributions from its Vietnamese subsidiary Saigon Beer-Alcohol-Beverage Corp (Sabeco), • Still a good BUY with value in counter; TP: S$0.93 potential market share gains in the Thai beer market and turnaround from the Non-Alcoholic Beverages (NAB) segment provide a strong platform for earnings growth. Price Relative S$ Relative Index Refinancing risks are low; strong cashflow to deleverage. THBEV has 1.1 215 1.0 195 secured a Bt40bn credit line for refinancing to remove any concerns in 175 0.9 155 this area. Continued deleveraging from its strong and stable cashflow, as 0.8 135 0.7 115 well as potential monetisation of assets are key re-rating catalysts. 95 0.6 75 0.5 55 Valuation: Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Our target price (TP) is based on sum-of-parts (SOP), with core operations Thai Beverage Public Company (LHS) Relative STI (RHS) based on discounted cash flow (DCF) (weighted average cost of capital Forecasts and Valuation (WACC) =7.2%, t=3%) and market value/target value of associate stakes. FY Sep (Btm) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F THBEV is trading at c.13x FY21F, PE which is around -1SD below its 10- Revenue 267,357 253,481 277,028 291,438 year historical average. We believe this is not pricing in its potential as EBITDA 42,162 44,062 48,056 52,254 Southeast Asia’s largest food and beverage player. Pre-tax Profit 31,312 32,931 35,822 40,481
Net Profit 23,272 22,752 25,818 28,971 Where we differ: Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 23,272 23,244 25,818 28,971 High gearing mitigated by strong operating cash flow (OCF). Although Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 14.1 (0.1) 11.1 12.2 EPS (S cts) 4.10 4.01 4.55 5.11 the market is concerned about THBEV’s high gearing, this should not be EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 4.10 4.10 4.55 5.11 an issue as its management has termed out its borrowings and is able to EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 14 0 11 12 repay/ refinance its obligations with its strong cashflows. Diluted EPS (S cts) 4.10 4.01 4.55 5.11 Net DPS (S cts) 2.12 2.04 2.30 2.70 Key Risks to Our View: BV Per Share (S cts) 20.4 25.1 27.4 29.8 Expectations of resilient demand misplaced. Our thesis is premised on PE (X) 17.6 18.0 15.8 14.1 resilient and eventual demand recovery. If this is not sustained or PE Pre Ex. (X) 17.6 17.6 15.8 14.1 misplaced, it could present downside risks. P/Cash Flow (X) 10.6 11.0 12.1 11.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 15.1 14.2 12.8 11.6 At A Glance Gross Div Yield (%) 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.7 Issued Capital (m shrs) 25,116 P/Book Value (X) 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.4 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 18,083 / 13,488 Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 Major Shareholders (%) ROAE (%) 19.7 17.6 17.3 17.9 Siriwana Co Ltd 45.3
Earnings Rev (%): 2 1 Maxtop Management Corp 20.6 Consensus EPS (S cts): 4.47 4.86 Capital Group Cos inc/The 5.00 Other Broker Recs: B: 14 S: 0 H: 1 Free Float (%) 29.1 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 14.5 Finance L.P. GIC Industry : Consumer Staples / Food, Beverage & Tobacco
ed: KK/ sa: DT, PY, CS Company Update
Thai Beverage Public Company
WHAT’S NEW Cheers to a Value Buy!
Good BUY, still see value in counter; TP: S$0.93. Despite Including the interim DPS of Bt0.10 paid, total DPS for the year appreciating by c.24% since our last note on 20 October (Thai is Bt0.46 (FY19: Bt0.48). The payout ratio of 51% is in line Beverage Public Company: Toast for higher returns!) we believe with its dividend policy of paying out not less than 50% of there is still upside potential for the counter. Its FY21F forward profits. PE valuation at 15.8x is just at -1.3SD and -0.5SD below its historical 5-year or 10-year valuation respectively. Furthermore, This final dividend is marginally higher than our expectations of its FY20 results highlight the company’s resilience despite Bt0.33/share, given better than expected results. We believe COVID-19 headwinds. We reiterate our BUY recommendation this continues to demonstrate the management and Board’s with TP of S$0.93. confidence in the company’s cashflow and financing. The final dividend, after approval at the Extraordinary General Meeting FY20 attributable profit only dipped marginally by -2.2% on (EGM), is expected to be paid on 25 February 2021. resilient operations. THBEV’s FY20 attributable net profit declined 2.2% y-o-y decline to Bt22.8bn on the back of a Spirits 5.2% dip in sales revenue to Bt253.5bn. This was above our Strong spirits warded off COVID-19, profit up 15.4%. THBEV’s expectations. We were expecting a steeper dip of 9%/ 7% in Spirits segment warded off the effects of COVID-19 and posted revenue and net profit to Bt243bn/ Bt21.7bn respectively. It a strong attributable profit growth of 15.4% y-o-y to Bt21.9bn, would seem that the impact of COVID-19 was mitigated by the while revenue was up by 2.2% to Bt117.3bn. Sales volume for resilience of its operations and good cost control by the FY20 inched up by 0.2% to 667.9m. This includes sales volume management team. from Grand Royal (GR) (sales performance of GR has not been separately disclosed since the start of FY20). Along with a shift Despite the pandemic challenges, the credible results were in product mix and cost control in advertising and promotion largely driven by; (i) Spirits segment achieving a attributable (A&P) expenses, EBITDA margins expanded to 24.3%. The net profit growth of 15.4% to Bt21.9bn; (ii) Non-Alcoholic performance was largely attributed to the Group’s strong Beverage (NAB) segment posting a turnaround with product portfolio, coupled with its high off-premise attributable net profit of Bt306m, from a loss of Bt1.02bn. consumption. These were offset by weaker contribution from the Beer segment with attributable net profit down 13.5% y-o-y to In 4Q20, Spirits continued to its recovery with revenue up by Bt825m, loss from the Food segment at Bt38m, from profit of 11.3% y-o-y to Bt28.8bn. This was after two quarters of decline Bt418m and weaker contribution from its associates. In in 2Q and 3Q brought about by disruptions arising from COVID- addition, the Group recognised a deferred tax expense and 19. non-recurring costs arising from the restructuring of its beer business amounting to Bt2.66bn. Without the non-recurring Beer items, attributable profit from normal operations would have Beer impacted by on-premise consumption; Thailand beer less been Bt25.4bn (+9.2% from FY19). affected. The Group’s Beer segment was less than stellar given the effects of the pandemic on on-premise consumption. Top Sequential improvement in 4Q20. On a quarterly basis, line dipped by 11.3% to Bt106.9bn, while attributable net revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and profit declined by 13.5% to Bt825m. Overall beer sales volume amortization (EBITDA) improved sequentially. We estimate that dropped by 12.7% to 23.6m hectolitres (hls), contributed 4Q20 revenue grew 2.1% y-o-y. This was on the back of y-o-y largely by a decline in Vietnam. Excluding Vietnam (Sabeco), we declines in 2Q and 3Q at 12.3% and 15.4% drop respectively. estimate that Thailand beer sales registered a marginal 1% dip A stronger trend was seen in its 4Q20 EBITDA which surged by in sales volume. Sabeco’s sales volume saw a 17.6% drop in 31% y-o-y to Bt11.5bn. (see quarterly table on page 3) volume to 15.6m hls, arising from stringent drink and driving regulations earlier in the year and impact of COVID-19. Final dividend of Bt0.36 proposed, a tad higher than expected, bringing FY20 DPS to Bt0.46 per share. A final dividend per While the Beer segment’s EBITDA margins improved to 12%, share (DPS) of Bt0.36 per share was proposed (FY19: Bt0.23). from 10.3% a year earlier on cuts in advertising, promotion and
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Thai Beverage Public Company
staff costs, attributable net profit for the segment still saw a improve towards 1.01x as of 30 September 2020, down from 13.5% decline due to lower top line. That said, as lockdown 1.3x a year ago. Net interest bearing debt to EBITDA also restrictions were lifted the business started to recover. Tracking improved to 3.91x, from 4.33x a year earlier. This direction is in its sequential quarterly segment performance, its Beer segment line with our expectations, though the pace is slightly faster posted only a marginal -1.5% y-o-y dip in revenue in 4Q20, given a better operating performance and cash control. This is from 23.5%/ 21.3% y-o-y drops in 2Q/3Q respectively. a positive sign.
Non-Alcoholic Beverages Loan agreement for Bt40bn should allay refinancing concerns. Turnaround as per Vision 2020 target. The NAB segment On 30 October, the Group entered into bilateral loan posted a 3.1% dip in sales revenue to Bt16.3bn with sales agreements with six banks for a combined amount of Bt40bn. volume dropping by 3.8%. The drop was driven by decrease in This is for the Group’s financial flexibility and in preparation for carbonated soft drinks (CSD) (-12.3%), drinking water (-0.8%), two of its debentures that are coming due in March 2021 ready-to-drink (RTD) tea (-1.8%), Jubjai (-36.2%) and 100Plus totaling Bt42.8bn (Bt11.2bn and Bt31.6bn). The remaining (-23.4%). Despite the decline in sales volume, gross profit and Bt2.8bn will be repaid with its internal cashflow. This is within EBITDA improved mainly due to lower cost of sales. In addition, our expectations and we believe the eventual draw down of with a decrease in A&P expenses, staff costs and other income, the loans may eventually be less, with a larger portion being attributable net profit was Bt306m, a turnaround from loss of repaid with its cashflow. Going forward, we continue to Bt1.3bn in FY19. The turnaround is a testament to the believe that its management is likely to look at deleveraging continued efforts of the management team, and its target to options and monetisation of its assets could be one avenue. achieve this goal set about 5 years ago. Valuations and forecasts Food Reiterate BUY, TP raised slightly to S$0.93. Our FY21F/22F Food segment most impacted, similar trend seen in 1H20. forecasts are raised slightly by 2%/1%. We project EPS (pre- Continuing from the trend in 1H20, its Food segment was the exceptional) growth of 11%/ 12% respectively, on the back of most impacted by COVID-19. Revenue for FY20 dropped by improvement in the global economy as we gradually move past 15.4% y-o-y respectively, arising from the prohibition of dine-in the effects of COVID-19. Despite appreciating by c.24% since at restaurants and food outlets in Thailand. While measures our last note on 20 October (Thai Beverage Public Company: such as cost savings, optimization of supply chain and cuts in Toast for higher returns!) we believe there is still upside expenses were taken, the segment still saw a net loss of Bt38m, potential for the counter. Its FY21F forward PE valuation at from profit of Bt418m a year ago. That said, along with the 15.8x is just at -1.3SD and -0.5SD below its historical 5-year or easing of restrictions, the revenue drop seems to be gradually 10-year valuation respectively. We reiterate our BUY narrowing. recommendation with TP of S$0.93.
Company Background ThaiBev is a leading beverage producer in Thailand, with business segments spanning spirits, beer, non-alcoholic beverages and food. Its key brands are Sangsom, Hong Thong and Chang. It has 28.5%/ 28.3% associate stakes in both Singapore-listed Fraser & Neave Ltd (FNN) and Frasers Property Limited (FPL). It also holds a controlling 53.58% stake in Gearing Sabeco, Vietnam’s largest beer player by market volume with Net debt/ equity improved towards 1x at a quicker pace – a brands such as Saigon Beer, Lager, Export and 333. welcomed sign. The Group’s net debt to equity continued to
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Company Update
Thai Beverage Public Company
Quarterly Segmentals (Btm) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 FY19 FY20 y-o-y Revenue Spirits 31,682 31,050 26,167 25,907 34,420 29,841 24,194 28,842 114,806 117,297 2.2% Beer 33,000 30,928 28,511 27,983 33,222 23,653 22,442 27,554 120,422 106,871 -11.3% Non-Alcoholic Beverages 4,157 4,259 4,016 4,364 4,214 4,476 3,798 3,793 16,796 16,281 -3.1% Food 3,816 3,780 4,053 3,912 3,874 3,477 2,584 3,237 15,561 13,172 -15.4% Elimination -28 -25 -89 -86 -50 -36 -10 -44 -228 -140 -38.6% Total revenue 72,627 69,992 62,658 62,080 75,680 61,411 53,008 63,382 267,357 253,481 -5.2%
EBITDA Spirits 7,540 6,956 6,052 5,596 8,782 6,971 5,807 6,950 26,144 28,510 9.0% Beer 2,729 3,566 3,446 2,721 3,255 2,529 3,049 3,993 12,462 12,826 2.9% Non-Alcoholic Beverages -40 284 181 187 447 770 490 377 612 2,084 240.5% Food 485 451 479 280 462 230 59 217 1,695 968 -42.9% Total EBITDA 10,714 11,257 10,158 8,784 12,946 10,500 9,405 11,537 40,913 44,388 8.5%
EBITDA margin Spirits 23.8% 22.4% 23.1% 21.6% 25.5% 23.4% 24.0% 24.1% 22.8% 24.3% Beer 8.3% 11.5% 12.1% 9.7% 9.8% 10.7% 13.6% 14.5% 10.3% 12.0% Non-Alcoholic Beverages -1.0% 6.7% 4.5% 4.3% 10.6% 17.2% 12.9% 9.9% 3.6% 12.8% Food 12.7% 11.9% 11.8% 7.2% 11.9% 6.6% 2.3% 6.7% 10.9% 7.3% Total 14.8% 16.1% 16.2% 14.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.7% 18.2% 15.3% 17.5%
Revenue growth (y-o-y) Spirits 28.6% -6.0% 6.5% 10.4% 8.6% -3.9% -7.5% 11.3% 2.2% Beer 128.6% 14.2% 0.8% 13.3% 0.7% -23.5% -21.3% -1.5% -11.3% Non-Alcoholic Beverages 1.1% 4.2% -5.1% 16.3% 1.4% 5.1% -5.4% -13.1% -3.1% Food 63.9% 10.5% 11.9% 0.5% 1.5% -8.0% -36.2% -17.3% -15.4% Elimination -30.0% -7.4% 64.8% 352.6% 78.6% 44.0% -88.8% -48.8% -38.6% Total 59.7% 3.6% 3.3% 11.3% 4.2% -12.3% -15.4% 2.1% -5.2%
EBITDA growth (y-o-y) Spirits 36.7% -13.6% 10.4% 12.7% 16.5% 0.2% -4.0% 24.2% 9.0% Beer 117.3% 38.9% 15.1% 29.9% 19.3% -29.1% -11.5% 46.7% 2.9% Non-Alcoholic Beverages -180.0% -392.8% -824.0% -879.2% -1217.5% 171.1% 170.7% 101.6% 240.5% Food 47.9% -4.7% 39.2% -40.3% -4.7% -49.0% -87.7% -22.5% -42.9% Total 49.9% 2.4% 15.5% 17.0% 20.8% -6.7% -7.4% 31.3% 8.5%
Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank
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Thai Beverage Public Company
Historical PE and PB bands
5-year forward PE band (x) 5-year forward PB band (x)
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank estimates Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank estimates
10-year forward PE band (x) 10-year forward PB band (x)
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank estimates Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank estimates
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Thai Beverage Public Company
Key Assumptions FY Sep 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F Sprits vol gwth (%) (9.3) 7.90 0.20 1.00 1.00 Spirits ASP gwth (%) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 1.00 2.00 Beer vol gwth (%) (11.4) 7.40 (0.9) 3.00 1.00 Beer ASP gwth (%) 2.00 1.00 0.0 1.00 3.00 Non-Alc Bev rev gwth (%) (3.5) 3.80 (3.1) 3.00 3.00
Segmental Breakdown FY Sep 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F Revenues (Btm) Spirits 105,900 114,806 117,297 118,096 122,493 Beer 94,486 120,422 106,871 123,874 132,839 Non-Alcoholic Bev. 16,184 16,796 16,281 16,769 17,273 Food 13,265 15,561 13,172 18,441 18,994 Others (140) (228) (140) (153) (161) Total 229,695 267,357 253,481 277,028 291,438 Operating profit (Btm) Spirits 21,888 24,095 26,276 25,509 27,071 Beer 4,909 7,879 8,186 10,795 12,675 Non-Alcoholic Bev. (2,971) (1,222) (54.0) 671 864 Food 853 833 51.0 738 950 Others 126 124 101 101 101 Total 24,805 31,709 34,560 37,813 41,660 Operating profit margins (%) Spirits 20.7 21.0 22.4 21.6 22.1 Beer 5.2 6.5 7.7 8.7 9.5 Non-Alcoholic Bev. (18.4) (7.3) (0.3) 4.0 5.0 Food 6.4 5.4 0.4 4.0 5.0 Others (90.0) (54.4) (72.1) (66.0) (62.7) Total 10.8 11.9 13.6 13.6 14.3
Income Statement (Btm) FY Sep 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F Revenue 229,695 267,357 253,481 277,028 291,438 Cost of Goods Sold (162,893) (189,966) (178,620) (190,735) (200,233) Gross Profit 66,802 77,391 74,860 86,293 91,205 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (41,913) (45,672) (40,302) (48,480) (49,544) Operating Profit 24,889 31,719 34,559 37,813 41,660 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 2,115 753 1,235 500 400 Associates & JV Inc 3,818 4,845 3,256 4,565 4,850 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (4,264) (6,006) (5,627) (7,056) (6,429) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (2,458) 0.0 (492) 0.0 0.0 Pre-tax Profit 24,100 31,312 32,931 35,822 40,481 Tax (4,494) (5,229) (6,866) (6,251) (7,126) Minority Interest (1,666) (2,810) (3,313) (3,752) (4,384) Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Profit 17,943 23,272 22,752 25,818 28,971 Net Profit before Except. 20,401 23,272 23,244 25,818 28,971 EBITDA 35,501 42,162 44,062 48,056 52,254 Growth Revenue Gth (%) 20.9 16.4 (5.2) 9.3 5.2 EBITDA Gth (%) (3.4) 18.8 4.5 9.1 8.7 Opg Profit Gth (%) (9.7) 27.4 9.0 9.4 10.2 Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (21.6) 14.1 (0.1) 11.1 12.2 Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) 29.1 28.9 29.5 31.1 31.3 Opg Profit Margin (%) 10.8 11.9 13.6 13.6 14.3 Net Profit Margin (%) 7.8 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.9 ROAE (%) 14.4 19.7 17.6 17.3 17.9 ROA (%) 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.9 6.6 ROCE (%) 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.3 Div Payout Ratio (%) 54.6 51.8 50.8 50.6 52.9 Net Interest Cover (x) 5.8 5.3 6.1 5.4 6.5 Source: Company, DBS Bank
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Thai Beverage Public Company
Balance Sheet (Btm) FY Sep 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F
Net Fixed Assets 60,458 59,737 61,347 61,229 61,087 Invts in Associates & JVs 82,118 79,345 85,605 87,971 90,621 Other LT Assets 200,118 190,840 200,252 200,196 200,139 Cash & ST Invts 22,530 24,362 34,695 36,535 35,896 Inventory 42,185 42,846 41,655 42,244 44,344 Debtors 4,294 5,094 5,072 5,237 5,509 Other Current Assets 6,219 5,015 4,893 4,893 4,893 Total Assets 417,922 407,240 433,520 438,304 442,490
ST Debt 14,483 21,608 64,450 64,450 64,450 Creditor 7,903 7,706 6,603 5,532 5,807 Other Current Liab 15,073 19,236 19,699 23,043 23,918 LT Debt 216,804 197,975 152,209 138,209 123,209 Other LT Liabilities 8,186 10,391 11,154 11,154 11,154 Shareholder’s Equity 120,952 115,859 142,596 155,356 169,007 Minority Interests 34,521 34,466 36,808 40,561 44,945 Total Cap. & Liab. 417,922 407,240 433,520 438,304 442,490
Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 29,722 26,014 25,318 23,799 25,022 Net Cash/(Debt) (208,757) (195,220) (181,965) (166,124) (151,763) Debtors Turn (avg days) 5.5 6.4 7.3 6.8 6.7 Creditors Turn (avg days) 14.7 15.4 15.0 11.9 10.6 Inventory Turn (avg days) 92.2 83.8 88.8 82.5 81.1 Asset Turnover (x) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 Current Ratio (x) 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Quick Ratio (x) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 Capex to Debt (%) 2.3 2.5 2.0 3.5 3.9 Z-Score (X) 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5
Source: Company, DBS Bank
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Thai Beverage Public Company
Cash Flow Statement (Btm) FY Sep 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F
Pre-Tax Profit 24,103 31,312 32,931 35,822 40,481 Dep. & Amort. 6,086 6,635 6,565 7,175 7,548 Tax Paid (6,965) (6,024) (5,113) (2,907) (6,251) Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (3,818) (4,845) (3,256) (4,565) (4,850) Chg in Wkg.Cap. 438 3,907 (142) (1,825) (2,097) Other Operating CF 2,436 7,492 6,282 0.0 0.0 Net Operating CF 22,280 38,476 37,265 33,699 34,831 Capital Exp.(net) (5,267) (5,493) (4,264) (7,000) (7,350) Other Invts.(net) (186,938) (4,750) (5,146) 0.0 0.0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 (935) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Div from Assoc & JV 2,661 2,529 1,347 2,200 2,200 Other Investing CF (2,554) 204 540 0.0 0.0 Net Investing CF (192,098) (8,445) (7,523) (4,800) (5,150) Div Paid (16,134) (12,416) (13,004) (13,059) (15,319) Chg in Gross Debt 192,347 (11,619) (5,006) (14,000) (15,000) Capital Issues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Financing CF (5,143) (7,141) (6,941) 0.0 0.0 Net Financing CF 171,070 (31,176) (24,951) (27,059) (30,319) Currency Adjustments 335 (740) 726 0.0 0.0 Chg in Cash 1,587 (1,886) 5,517 1,840 (639) Opg CFPS (S cts) 3.85 6.09 6.59 6.26 6.51 Free CFPS (S cts) 3.00 5.81 5.82 4.71 4.84
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Target Price & Ratings History
0.97 S$ 12-mth 0.92 Date of Closing S.No. Target Rating Report Price Price 0.87 1 2 1: 25 Nov 19 0.89 1.04 BUY 0.82 2: 17 Feb 20 0.83 1.04 BUY 0.77 3: 15 May 20 0.67 0.90 BUY 4: 18 May 20 0.67 0.90 BUY 0.72 4 5: 17 Aug 20 0.64 0.90 BUY 0.67 6: 20 Oct 20 0.58 0.90 BUY 3 0.62 5 6 0.57 0.52 0.47 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20
Note : Share price and target price are adjusted for corporate actions.
Source: DBS Bank Analyst: Andy SIM, CFA Alfie YEO
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Thai Beverage Public Company
DBS Bank recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) *Share price appreciation + dividends
Completed Date: 26 Nov 2020 00:27:34 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 26 Nov 2020 08:59:10 (SGT)
Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Bank unless otherwise specified.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.
This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein.
Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.
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Company Update
Thai Beverage Public Company
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report.
DBSVUSA, a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst (s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does not serve as an officer of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the management company of the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report or 2 his associate does not have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's compensation to any specific investment banking function of the DBS Group.
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS'') or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a proprietary position in Thai Beverage Public Company recommended in this report as of 31 Oct 2020. 2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research Report.
Compensation for investment banking services: 3. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced: 4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates in the preceding 12 months.
1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
2 Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
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Company Update
Thai Beverage Public Company
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Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
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For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Carol Wu (Reg No. AH8283) at [email protected]
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Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR
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Company Update
Thai Beverage Public Company
Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd.
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In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication.
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Company Update
Thai Beverage Public Company
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HONG KONG MALAYSIA SINGAPORE DBS (Hong Kong) Ltd AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd DBS Bank Ltd Contact: Carol Wu Contact: Wong Ming Tek Contact: Janice Chua 13th Floor One Island East, 19th Floor, Menara Multi-Purpose, 12 Marina Boulevard, 18 Westlands Road, Capital Square, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Quarry Bay, Hong Kong 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah 50100 Singapore 018982 Tel: 852 3668 4181 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tel: 65 6878 8888 Fax: 852 2521 1812 Tel.: 603 2604 3333 e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Fax: 603 2604 3921 Company Regn. No. 196800306E e-mail: [email protected] Co. Regn No. 198401015984 (128540-U)
THAILAND INDONESIA DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia) Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul Contact: Maynard Priajaya Arif 989 Siam Piwat Tower Building, DBS Bank Tower 9th, 14th-15th Floor Ciputra World 1, 32/F Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan, Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5 Bangkok Thailand 10330 Jakarta 12940, Indonesia Tel. 66 2 857 7831 Tel: 62 21 3003 4900 Fax: 66 2 658 1269 Fax: 6221 3003 4943 e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Company Regn. No 0105539127012 Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand
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