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Plantations-Tea & Coffee Initiating Coverage 01 Nov 2018

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Plantations-Tea & Coffee Initiating Coverage 01 Nov 2018 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Initiating Coverage | Plantations-Tea & Coffee 01 Nov 2018 Vandana Pareek - Research Analyst ([email protected]); 0261-6725518 Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Jainam Share Consultant research is available on www.jainam.in 01-11-2018 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Index A. Company Overview 1. About……………………………………………………….…………….…….1 2. Investment Rationale……………………………………….…………………2 3. Risk………………………………………………….………………………….3 4. Brief Conclusion……………………………………….………………………..3 B. Industry Overview 1. Global Coffee Industry……………………………………………..………………………………….4 2. Indian Coffee Industry………………………………………………………………………..……….6 C. Business of the Company 1. Instant Coffee Making Process ……………………………….……………….8 2. Product……………………………………………………………………..…10 3. Production Capacity.…..…………………………….………………………..12 4. Subsidiaries……..…………………………………..………………………...13 5. Top Shareholders…………………………………..…………………………15 6. Management………………………………………………………………….15 D. Financial Outlook 1. Profit & Loss………………………………….………………………………..16 2. Ratio…………………………………….………….…………………………..17 3. Balance Sheet…………………………………………………………………18 4. Cash Flow Statement………………………….………………………………18 5. Quarterly Update……………………..…….…………………………………19 E. Analysis 1. Peer Analysis………………………………………………………………….22 2. Valuation………………………………………………………………………23 F. Conclusion 1. Recommendation…………………………………….……………………….26 2. Sources……………………………………………….………………………..26 3. Full Form & Glossary………………………………………………………….27 4. Report Gallery………………………………………………………………….28 5. Disclaimer……………………………………………………………………..29 01-11-2018 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Company Overview About CCL Product Ltd. Latest Date 01-Nov-18 Latest Price (Rs) 260.00 CCL Products, (India) Limited, a global coffee manufacturer was founded in the year 1994 52 Week High (Rs) 354.60 with the vision of creating only finest and the richest instant coffee in the world. They are 52 Week Low (Rs) 225.05 among the only companies in the world to produce all four types of soluble coffee from a Face Value(Rs) 2.00 single location. The company is a topmost Industry PE 17.76 producer and exporter of various types of instant coffee. Company is specialized in TTM Period 2018-09 importing green coffee from any part of the world and export processed coffee across the Price/BV(x) 4.26 globe, devoid of any duties. It has distinction of setting up India ’ s first Freeze Dried Instant EV/TTM EBIDTA(x) 13.37 coffee manufacturing plant in the year 2005. EV/TTM Sales(x) 3.16 a) CCL products are currently being exported to more than 85 countries. Dividend Yield% 0.96 b) Currently selling almost 1000 different blends to customers. MCap/TTM Sales(x) 2.93 c) Swiss & Brazilian technology at its plant is purchased from Turnkey. Market Cap (Rs in Cr. ) 3458.00 Currently CCL is planning grab a bigger pie in EV (Rs) 3724.75 the freeze dried coffee by setting up its fourth plant in Chittoor, Andhra Pradesh at an Latest no. of shares (in Cr.) 13.30 investment of Rs. 360 crore. Source : Ace Analyser, Software Exchange: BSE BSE Code: 519600 Current Market Price: 260.00 Date: 01-Nov-18 01-11-2018 1 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Investment Rationale Stable Profit Margin : CCL works on cost plus margin basis because of which there margin remain fixed and they have been able to pass on the cost of raw material to the customers. They place order for green coffee beans only after receiving order for instant coffee because of this approach CCL has been able to maintain their operating profit margin above 19% in last five years. And even adverse volatility in coffee prices will not affect its margin. Continuous Expansion : CCL products currently have a combined capacity of 35000 tonne per annum. Currently, Indian capacity is of 20000 tonne per annum which is operating at 98% while the Vietnam based subsidiary has production capacity of 10000 tonne per annum for spray dried coffee and 5000 tonne of liquid coffee ( 2000 tonne in solid terms) which is currently operating at around 60 to 70%. CCL is setting up a freeze dried freeze dried instant coffee greenfield plant in Chittor, Andhra Pradesh at an investment of Rs. 360 crore in which Rs.180 cr. will be through internal accrual and remaining Rs. 180 cr. is the loan component. Freeze dried coffee is a premium product being served to niche market and is globally growing at fast pace. Largest Exporter: CCL products is India’s largest manufacturer and exporter of instant coffee. According to the data of year 2017, out of the total export of instant coffee from India, CCL product accounts for 37% of the total export. Source : Coffee Board of India, Website Domestic Expansion: Continental Coffee Private limited subsidiary of CCL Products is serving the domestic market. They are taking initiatives to strengthen its brand in domestic retail coffee market under the brand name ‘Continental’. They have started placing vending machines and around 750 machines has been placed and there target is of around 3000 machines. CCL is targeting revenue of Rs. 70 crore in FY19E from the brand. Cost Control: Company has been continuously saving fuel costs for its boiler by using rice husk and recycled solid waste as fuel. During production, 40% can be derived from the coffee beans for the productive usage and the rest 60% is in the form of solid waste. More than 90% of the waste generated is being recycled. The solid waste generated is being used as fuel for the boiler. The ash that comes from the boilers is being supplied to brick manufacturer. 01-11-2018 2 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Risk Coffee Prices: Unexpected fluctuation in green coffee prices may adversely affect the profitability of the company. High Competition: India’s instant coffee market is a duopoly of the firms Nestle and Bru which account 55% and 45% of market share. Adverse Currency Movement: CCL is an exported oriented unit and its 90% of the revenue is generated from export so any sharp movement in currency may cause risk. It import approx. 60% of its raw material, and all its transactions are in USD which provides it natural hedge. Slowdown in Demand: Reduction in demand for instant coffee from Europe and other countries may slowdown the export of CCL as Europe coffee market is growing at CAGR of 1.2% and at Global level consumption level is increased at 2.2% CAGR only. Agro – based Product: Reduced rainfall in some areas due to drastic change in the ecosystem will result in change of quality of the coffee beans used as the raw material to produce instant coffee. Brief Conclusion Company being India’s largest manufacturer and exporter of instant coffee working with cost plus margin basis and having global reach in more than 85 countries and selling around 1000 different blends to customers. They are currently expanding its production capacity by installing additional 5000 Tonnes capacity being operational in FY19. They stands strong due to its product taste and quality and are trying to build it brand name 'Continental' and have started placing vending machines with target of installing 3000 machine. We recommend our Investors to “Buy” the stock with potential upside of 23% with horizon of 2 years. 01-11-2018 3 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Industry Overview Global Coffee Industry Coffee has gained the status of being third most preferred beverage worldwide after water and tea. Coffee is the second most traded commodity in the whole world after oil. The opportunity in the instant coffee market is likely to rise at a CAGR of 4.80% from 2017 to 2025. The increasing awareness regarding the harmful effects of aerated drinks is also expected to shift the preference of consumers towards coffee, which subsequently, is anticipated to propel the worldwide market for instant coffee in the near future. 2.2% CAGR Source : International Coffee Organisation, Website Global coffee consumption increased at 2.2% CAGR between FY 2013-14 to 2016-17. In FY 2016-17, 15.89 cr. bags (60 Kg each) were consumed. Out of the total world coffee consumption 69.1% of the coffee is consumed by importing countries like EU, USA, Japan, Russia and Canada while remaining 30.9% of the coffee is consumed by the Exporting countries like Brazil, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Philippines and India. Consumption of Exporting countries is growing at CAGR of 2.3% while importing countries coffee consumption is growing at a CAGR of 2.1%. 01-11-2018 4 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Source : International Coffee Organisation, Website Europe is the largest consumer of coffee in the world from past many years and is growing at a CAGR of 1.2% with consumption of approx. 5 crore bags (60 kg) every year. Asia & Oceania is the second largest consumer of coffee after Europe with total consumption of 3.47 cr. bags and is growing with CAGR of 4.2% which is highest as compared to other continents. Coffee Consumption Source : International Coffee Organisation, Website 01-11-2018 5 Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd. Sector : Plantations - Tea & Coffee Indian Coffee Industry Coffee industry which has been growing at a CAGR of around 3.1% currently is expected to grow at 5.9% annually from 2018-2021. Source : Coffee Board of India, Website Robusta consist 56% of the total coffee export from India of about 223536.318 tonnes in 2017 and export is growing at a CAGR of 9.98% from 2015 to 2017. Robusta is a bitter tasting coffee bean with 50% extra caffeine. Following Robusta, Instant coffee is the second largest exported coffee product in term of quantity of about 115258.461 tonnes in 2017 and export is growing at a CAGR of 7%. Instant Coffee Source : Coffee Board of India, Website Revenue in the instant coffee segment amounts to Rs.
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