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TFA Analysis: New Prime Minister, Cabinet and Policy Direction

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TFA Analysis: New Prime Minister, Cabinet and Policy Direction TFA Analysis: New Prime Minister, Cabinet and Policy Direction Summary On 13 July 2016, following David Cameron’s departure from Number 10 and Andrea Leadsom’s decision to stand down form the Conservative Party leadership contest, Theresa May became the new Conservative Party leader and the UK’s second female Prime Minister taking charge of Government at one of the most turbulent times in British political and economic history. In her acceptance speech she confirmed a bold statement of intent talking of social justice and promising to make the UK a “country that works for everyone” not just a privileged few. May also spoke very passionately about her Unionist values and of the importance of the Union not just between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but of all citizen’s throughout the UK. She promised that as the UK leaves the EU she would seek to forge a “bold new positive role for the UK throughout the World”. Mrs May moved immediately to radically reshape the Cabinet with leading Brexiteers appointed to key Cabinet positions including Boris Johnson as Secretary of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office; David Davies as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union; and Liam Fox as Secretary of State for International Trade. May also announced Philip Hammond’s appointment as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Hammond replaces George Osborne who left the Government on the same day as the Prime Minister. Notable appointments in a completely reshaped Cabinet include: Amber Rudd, Home Secretary; Justine Greening, Secretary of State for Education and Minister for Women and Equalities; Elizabeth Truss, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice; Damian Green, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions; Andrea Leadsom, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government; Chris Grayling, Secretary of State for Transport; Karen Bradley, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport and Greg Clark, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Jeremy Hunt retains responsibility for Health and Michael Fallon for Defence. Those leaving the Government include: Michael Gove; Nicky Morgan; John Whittingdale; and Oliver Letwin. Her reputation as a strong leader and tough but calm negotiator will be severely tested as she faces the challenge of steering the UK through the “Article 50” process to agree the terms of departure from the EU; and to forge new trading relationships with the rest of the World on the global stage. Her “unchallenged coronation” will undoubtedly lead to calls for an early General Election that could give her a new mandate ahead of the commencement of the EU Brexit negotiation process (expected to commence next year). However, Mrs May has indicated that this is unlikely at this stage commenting that the UK needs a period of stability ahead of the Brexit negotiations. She could however be tempted to go early and seek a fresh mandate should Jeremy Corbyn survive the current Labour Leadership contest with Angela Eagle and Owen Smith. Mrs May will need to perform a very difficult “balancing act” to ensure that she retains the support of Brexiteers and Remain supporters not just in the Cabinet but throughout the wider Conservative Party. She will also be mindful of the current slender working majority of 18 votes that she has inherited from David Cameron that separate success from defeat; and will need to ensure that she keeps the 84 MPs who supported Andrea Leadsom onside in order to prevent damaging Parliamentary defeats in her first 100 days. Mrs May believes in social justice and mobility and critiques the economy for helping the few not the many, echoing Ed Miliband at the 2015 General Election. Under a Theresa May Premiership we are likely to see a reshaped Government with a new focus on global trade; responsible capitalism; social justice; new proposals on executive pay; and measures to tackle predatory takeovers. She is also expected to develop a refocused industrial strategy and to continue the devolution policy agenda with proposals to develop all the great cities in the UK. Indeed, May has made it clear that she will prioritise a new “One Nation” centrist manifesto targeting policies to help those who feel that they have “lost control over their day to day lives”. Our briefing paper provides background information on the new Prime Minister, her advisers, and key Cabinet appointments; and provides analysis and commentary on the expected policy direction of the new Theresa May Premiership. Theresa May - Prime Minister Born in Eastbourne in 1956, May was educated at primary and grammar schools in Oxfordshire, before studying geography at Oxford. Between 1977 and 1983, she worked at the Bank of England, where she rose to the Head of the European Affairs Unit of the Association for Payment Clearing Services. She married investment banker, Philip May, in 1980 and, in 1986, was elected as a councillor to Merton Council in London for eight years. In that time, she held the position of deputy leader of the Conservative Group and also chaired the Education Committee. After a couple of unsuccessful attempts to enter Parliament, in 1999, she found herself in the Shadow Cabinet only two years after becoming the MP for Maidenhead, being appointed Shadow Education and Employment Secretary. May was also appointed the first female Chairman of the Conservative Party in July 2002. More recently, she quadrupled her majority to 29,059 in the latest General Election and was also the longest-serving Home Secretary for over 60 years. She has taken hard positions on immigration and the UK’s policing in her time as Home Secretary. Her career in Westminster has been varied and alongside her Shadow Education role, roles as Shadow Minister for Transport, Local Government and Regions, Culture, Media and Sport, Leader of the House and Shadow Minister for Work and Pensions give her a formidable CV. She also managed to juggle between her Home Secretary role and her Minister for Women and Equalities role for two years between 2010 and 2012. May brands herself as a ‘One Nation Conservative’ and a ‘Liberal Conservative’ and has a reputation as a ruthless politician that gets on with the job. She supported the UK remaining in the EU but kept herself reasonably quiet throughout the campaign. Nevertheless, May was quoted as saying the EU was ‘far from perfect’ during the campaign and has now promised that ‘Brexit means Brexit’. Key Advisers Nick Timothy Former Special Adviser to Mrs May at the Home Office, Timothy was a PPC until he was blocked from running in a safe seat by Downing Street before the last election. He fleshed out his views in a series of columns for the Conservative Home website, allowing greater analysis of the overlap between his policy agenda and that of the Home Secretary. Born and raised in a working-class family in Birmingham, he joined the Conservatives because they talked about the need to promote social mobility and acted on it. He is a Chamberlain Conservative — influenced by Joe Chamberlain, the 19th-century businessman and liberal mayor of Birmingham turned Tory politician and might just be responsible for an expected change of direction on business policy under new Prime Minister May. Last year Sajid Javid, the former Secretary of State for BIS, stated: “I don’t particularly like the word strategy coupled with industrial.” That approach is expected to change with Mrs May promising a “proper” industrial strategy. Timothy is also a strong believer in shifting support away from financial services to helping a wider range of industry sectors. Fiona Hill Former Special Adviser to Mrs May at the Home Office, Hill also worked with Mrs May at the start of her Ministerial career and jointly chaired her leadership campaign with Nick Timothy. During her time as a Special Adviser at the Home Office, Hill helped to put modern slavery at the heart of the Home Secretary’s policy agenda. Hill ensured that Home Office officials focused on the immigrant slave trade, closing loopholes and creating laws against the practice. While her influence is widely acknowledged to be significant, she kept counsel about her views in public. Key Cabinet appointments Michael Fallon – Secretary of State for Defence Michael Fallon was initially the Conservative MP for Darlington from 1983 to 1992. After leaving Parliament, he was then re-elected as the MP for Sevenoaks in 1997. Michael has held several ministerial positions during his Westminster career, including minister in the Department for Education and Science, Minister for Business and Enterprise, as well as Minister of State for Energy. In his career outside of politics he directed several companies, such as Bannatyne Fitness and Quality Care Homes. Fallon is considered a steady hand in Government. He also supported Remain during the EU referendum campaign and gave Mrs May his backing during the leadership contest. Liam Fox – Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox has been given a newly created position of Secretary of State for International Trade. The appointment means he re-joins the ranks of Conservatives heavyweights after being sacked as the Defence Secretary in 2011. He was forced to resign five years ago after allowing his friend and best man Adam Werritty to take on an unofficial and undeclared role as his adviser. He allowed Mr Werritty to attend meetings at the Ministry of Defence without obtaining the necessary security clearance and join him for meeting with foreign dignitaries. Mr Fox admitted he had made an error of judgment and took a back seat in the political realm, until the EU referendum where he was a prominent Brexiteer. Fox is seen as a competent choice for a return to Government, having run as a possible leader himself.
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