Moving Will County Market Analysis May 2020 Chicago Metropolitan
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Moving Will County Market Analysis DATE May 2020 PRODUCED FOR Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) I. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 3 II. OVERVIEW OF STUDY AREA 7 III. DEMOGRAPHICS AND EMPLOYMENT 9 IV. INDUSTRIAL MARKET TRENDS 21 V. HOUSING OVERVIEW AND FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET 32 VI. RENTAL HOUSING MARKET 45 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS intervention, communities may see a wave of mortgage defaults once more. The rental market Project Scope will be disrupted short-term, as tenants may not be able to afford their rents and will seek less Kretchmer Associates prepared a market analysis expensive options. During the prior recession, those for the southwestern area of Will County, an area who lost their homes to foreclosure became roughly bounded by I-80 and Route 30 on the north, renters, which increased rental demand. Wilmington-Peotone Road on the south, the Cook – Will county border on the east, and the Will – The industrial market in the Land Use Study Area Grundy county border on the west. The purpose of (LUSA) is heavily dependent on transportation and this study is to provide a realistic market-driven logistics, including warehouses for e-commerce. analysis from which future land use planning While some shipments have been reduced, demand scenarios can be developed. The focus of this for food and other staples has increased, and report is on the industrial and residential markets demand may exist for flexible warehouse space to as these are the ones with the greatest opportunity meet unpredictable logistics needs. We expect that for growth. the shake-out in the retail industry will continue, resulting in continued demand for large The findings in this report reflect our review of warehouses and the intermodal facilities in the industry research, our own analysis, and phone LUSA. interviews conducted with employees of Cushman Wakefield, Colliers, NAI Hiffman, JLL, Avison Young, Major Opportunity Areas and CenterPoint familiar with Will County, as well as multiple residential realtors or sales agents. The Land Use Existing Conditions Report suggests 8 Major Opportunity Areas based on 6 criteria, Incorporating Uncertainty from COVID -19 including 2 opportunity areas selected for near term change. The criteria are: At the time of this writing, there is considerable uncertainty about the economy and real estate . Proximity to major transportation corridors, market nationally, regionally and locally. The full including I-55, I-80, and IL-53 impacts will not be known until the pandemic ends. Proximity to major economic anchors Whether this will result in a prolonged recession, . Significant contiguous land for new how long it will take businesses to ramp up again, development and infill opportunities and how quickly individuals will get back to work . Proximity to existing municipal incorporated will determine the short-term impacts. Long term areas and existing infrastructure impacts are difficult to predict. Potential to protect waterways including Jackson Creek, Des Plaines River, and DuPage The pandemic strongly impacts the retail industry, River which had problems prior to the virus outbreak. Homebuilding will be affected depending on how long unemployment and furloughs last and how long it takes for buyers to recoup the losses to their savings for a down payment. Absent government 3 Major Opportunity Areas DRAFT 3-3-20 MAJOR OPPORTUNITY AREA AREA AROUND 8 Major Opportunity Areas EXISTING OPEN SPACES PROPOSED are suggested based on HOUBOLT the following criteria: PLANNED FPDWC TRAILS BRIDGE SOUTH OF I-80 • PROXIMITY TO MAJOR TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS, VACANT AREA INCLUDING I-55, I-80 IN MINOOKA AND IL 53. ALONG I-80 • PROXIMITY TO MAJOR 6 ECONOMIC ANCHORS • SIGNIFICANT CONTIGUOUS LAND FOR NEW 8 DEVELOPMENT AND IKEA/AMAZON/ INFILL OPPORTUNITIES 4 1 SPEEDWAY 7 AREA • PROXIMITY TO EXISTING MUNICIPAL 3 INCORPORATED AREAS AND EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE AREA IN AREA EAST OF CHANNAHON AREA WEST OF POTENTIAL TO THE UP • THE UP ALONG I-55 INTERMODAL PROTECT INTERMODAL IN JOLIET WATERWAYS IN JOLIET INCLUDING JACKSON 5 CREEK, DES PLAINES RIVER AND DUPAGE RIVER • OPPORTUNITIES TO BOTH SIDES OF I-55 IMPLEMENT FPDWC SOUTH OF EXXON PLANNED TRAIL CORRIDORS, INCLUDING THE IL 53, ELION LOGISTICS JACKSON CREEK AND PARK AREA WEST DUPAGE RIVER TRAIL OF I-55 CORRIDORS 2 Data sources: CMAP Land Use, 2015; Satellite Imagery, 2017; Will County GIS, 2019. Note: The CMAP 2015 Land Use Inventory data used in this analysis is draft data. Opportunities to implement Forest Preserve The area is most known regionally as the major District of Will County (FPDWC) planned trail transportation and logistics hub for the greater corridors, including the IL-53, Jackson Creek, Chicago region and the Midwest with two major and DuPage River Trail corridors intermodal facilities. This has created conflicts between residents and industry relative to truck The above-described criteria are compatible with traffic, congestion and pollution. The purpose of market factors that influence where development this report is to provide data and analysis that can occurs. Specifically, locations within 3 miles of I-80 be used to develop recommendations for mitigating and I-55 (preferably within 1 mile) are most these conflicts through the Truck Routing Study attractive in general for industry in the LUSA, while and to develop scenarios for future land use that proximity to IL-53 is also attractive for companies’ address the needs of residents, businesses, regional distribution networks. property owners and government. Companies like IKEA and Amazon are major Industrial space grew by 82% in the LUSA in the economic anchors, users that tend to predict what past ten years to well over 55 million square feet. places will be attractive to other companies looking While the industrial vacancy rate was higher at the for similar locational attributes. Major economic end of 2018 (14.8%) than it had been over the prior anchors also include infrastructure important to three years, it dropped to 13.0% by the end of 2019. industry, especially the UP and BSNF intermodal A tight market in 2016 led to overbuilding over the facilities in Joliet and Elwood. next two years, though there is still a large amount of interest in leasing and owning these warehouses, To site the 1 million square foot industrial buildings particularly from third party logistics companies demanded in the LUSA, developers need 50 (3PL), major retailers (Walmart, Target, IKEA, etc.) contiguous acres. Many also need proximity to and e-commerce companies such as Amazon. labor leading them to infill sites closer to existing concentrations. Some existing parks have “pad- Residential development has picked up since the ready” sites to meet these needs. As development end of the recession with almost 1,800 housing progresses, infill sites with good access to labor units added between 2014 and 2018, 88% of which become more scarce, leading developers to seek was single-family homes. New builders took over land elsewhere. To avoid land use conflict and dormant subdivisions that were stalled by the negative impacts from trucking and traffic recession and built new product that has sold well congestion, it makes economic sense to steer if priced at entry to middle market prices. development demand to opportunity areas that match the criteria listed above. At this time, there are more than 1,200 approved but unbuilt lots with infrastructure in Manhattan Summary of Findings and more than 2,100 approved without infrastructure (assuming the village’s typical The Land Use Study Area is growing in both residential density). However, concern over population and employment, and this trend is industrial development west of US-52 has raised projected to continue, though most likely at a concerns over the future marketability of homes slower rate than it has since the end of the west of Cedar Road. This impacts existing homes as recession. well as new construction. 5 There is only one small subdivision in Joliet in the Since the market for retail development will follow LUSA with unbuilt lots and none in Elwood. There the increase in rooftops, future retail demand will are also subdivisions in Channahon not yet built be dictated by the pace of residential development. out, as well as extensive land for future residential The LUSA and southwestern Will County are not growth. significant office locations within the Chicago region. Other than office space to serve the local Based on short-term projections by demographic population, such as medical and service data provider Esri and extrapolating CMAP’s Will businesses, office development will play a minor County 2050 projections to the LUSA, we estimate role in future development in the LUSA. demand for 13,500 residential units, or 468 per year on average by 2050. Of these, the annual average number of owner-occupied units is 305 and the number of rental units is 163. Given the very limited supply of rental units in the LUSA and the need for workforce housing to meet employment needs, we estimate that the rental share will increase from its current 18% to 25%. This will require zoning changes on the part of municipalities, which currently have almost all residential land zoned for single-family housing. 6 OVERVIEW OF STUDY AREA Of these 124 square miles, nearly 93% is currently unincorporated. Other major uses include large The LUSA is in southwestern Will County and industrial parks, two intermodal facilities, single- includes all or portions of Joliet, Elwood, family residential neighborhoods, and publicly Manhattan, Channahon, Minooka, Wilmington, owned open space and natural resources, most Rockdale, New Lenox, Mokena, Frankfort, and notably the Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie and Symerton. It is bounded by I-80 and Route 30 on the the Abraham Lincoln National Cemetery. north, the Will - Cook County line on the east, Wilmington-Peotone Road on the south and the Will A map of the area is on the following page.