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Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change ReanalysisThe First of Historical State of theClimate DataCarbon for Key Cycle Atmospheric Report Features: TheImplications North American for Attribution Carbon Budget of Causesand Implications of Observed for Change the Global Carbon Cycle U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.21.3 March 2007 FEDERAL EXECUTIVE TEAM Director, Climate Change Science Program: ...........................................William J. Brennan Director, Climate Change Science Program Office: ................................Peter A. Schultz Lead Agency Principal Representative to CCSP; Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: ...............................Mary M. Glackin Product Lead, Chief Scientist, Physical Sciences Division, Earth Systems Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ..........................................................................................Randall M. Dole Synthesis and Assessment Product Coordinator, Climate Change Science Program Office: ...............................................Fabien J.G. Laurier EDITORIAL AND PRODUCTION TEAM Co-Chairs............................................................................................................ Randall M. Dole, NOAA Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA Siegfried Schubert, NASA Federal Advisory Committee Designated Federal Official....................... Neil Christerson, NOAA Scientific Editor .............................................................................................. Jessica Blunden, STG, Inc. Scientific Editor................................................................................................. Anne M. Waple, STG, Inc. Technical Advisor.............................................................................................. David J. Dokken, USGCRP Graphic Design Lead ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Sara W. Veasey, NOAA Graphic Design Co-Lead ������������������������������������������������������������������������� Deborah B. Riddle, NOAA Designer ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Glenn M. Hyatt, NOAA Designer ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Deborah Misch, STG, Inc. Designer ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Christian Zamarra, STG, Inc. Copy Editor ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Anne Markel, STG, Inc. Copy Editor ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Lesley Morgan, STG, Inc. Copy Editor ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Susan Osborne, STG, Inc. Copy Editor ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Susanne Skok, STG, Inc. Copy Editor ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Mara Sprain, STG, Inc. Technical Support.............................................................................................. Jesse Enloe, STG, Inc. This Synthesis and Assessment Product described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan, was prepared in accordance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and the information quality act guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and NOAA pursuant to Section 515 <http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/iq.htm>. The CCSP Interagency Committee relies on Department of Commerce and NOAA certifications regarding compliance with Section 515 and Department guidelines as the basis for determining that this product conforms with Section 515. For purposes of compliance with Section 515, this CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product is an “interpreted product” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines and is classified as “highly influential”. This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action. ReanalysisThe First of Historical State of the Climate DataCarbon for Key Cycle Atmospheric Report Features: TheImplications North American for Attribution Carbon Budget of Causesand Implications of Observed for Change the Global Carbon Cycle Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3 Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research EDITED BY: Randall M. Dole December, 2008 Members of Congress: On behalf of the National Science and Technology Council, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is pleased to transmit to the President and the Congress this Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change. This is part of a series of 21 SAPs produced by the CCSP aimed at providing current assessments of climate change science to inform public debate, policy, and operational decisions. These reports are also intended to help the CCSP develop future program research priorities. The CCSP’s guiding vision is to provide the Nation and the global community with the science-based knowledge needed to manage the risks and capture the opportunities associated with climate and related environmental changes. The SAPs are important steps toward achieving that vision and help to translate the CCSP’s extensive observational and research database into informational tools that directly address key questions being asked of the research community. This SAP addresses current capabilities to integrate observations of the climate system into a consistent description of past and current conditions through the method of reanalysis. In addition, this report assesses present capabilities to attribute causes for climate variations and trends over North America during the reanalysis period, which extends from the mid-twentieth century to the present. It was developed with broad scientific input and in accordance with the Guidelines for Producing CCSP SAPs, the Information Quality Act (Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 [Public Law 106-554]), and the guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pursuant to Section 515. We commend the report’s authors for both the thorough nature of their work and their adherence to an inclusive review process. Sincerely, Carlos M. Gutierrez Samuel W. Bodman John H. Marburger III Secretary of Commerce Secretary of Energy Director, Office of Science and Chair, Committee on Climate Change Vice Chair, Committee on Climate Technology Policy Science and Technology Integration Change Science and Technology Executive Director, Committee Integration on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration 4 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... VII Preface ............................................................................................................................................................ XI Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Introduction 1.1 Reanalysis ......................................................................................................................................................5 1.2 Attribution ...................................................................................................................................................7 1.3 Connections between Reanalysis and Attribution .....................................................................8 1.3.1 Steps In Climate Science ..................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 Further Comments ............................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Reanalysis Applications and Uses .......................................................................................................9 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features Key Findings .......................................................................................................................................................11 2.1 Climate Reanalysis and its Role Within a Comprehensive Climate Observing System ...................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.2 What is a Climate Analysis? .........................................................................................................
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