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Missouri Public Service Commission Case No. Wr-2017

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Missouri Public Service Commission Case No. Wr-2017 Exhibit No.: Issues: Return on Equity and Capital Structure Witness: Ann E. Bulkley Exhibit Type: Direct Sponsoring Party: Missouri-American Water Company Case No.: WR-2017-0285 SR-2017-0286 Date: June 30, 2017 MISSOURI PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION CASE NO. WR-2017-0285 CASE NO. SR-2017-0286 DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ANN E. BULKLEY ON BEHALF OF MISSOURI-AMERICAN WATER COMPANY DIRECT TESTIMONY ANN E. BULKLEY MISSOURI-AMERICAN WATER COMPANY CASE NO. WR-2017-0285 CASE NO. SR-2017-0286 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. WITNESS IDENTIFICATION AND QUALIFICATIONS ..............................3 II. PURPOSE AND OVERVIEW OF TESTIMONY..............................................5 III. REGULATORY GUIDELINES .........................................................................10 IV. CAPITAL MARKET CONDITIONS ................................................................13 V. PROXY GROUP SELECTION .........................................................................24 VI. COST OF EQUITY ESTIMATION ..................................................................28 A. CONSTANT GROWTH DCF MODEL ................................................30 B. CAPM ANALYSIS ..................................................................................38 VII. BUSINESS RISKS ...............................................................................................42 A. RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PROGAM .................................................................................................43 B. RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL AND WATER QUALITY REGULATION ....................................................49 C. RISKS RELATED TO REGULATORY LAG .....................................51 VIII. CAPITAL STRUCTURE ....................................................................................53 IX. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION ...............................................57 Page ii MAWC – DT-AEB DIRECT TESTIMONY ANN E. BULKLEY 1 I. WITNESS IDENTIFICATION AND QUALIFICATIONS 2 Q. Please state your name, affiliation, and business address. 3 A. My name is Ann E. Bulkley. I am employed by Concentric Energy Advisors, Inc. 4 (“Concentric”) as a Senior Vice President. My business address is 293 Boston 5 Post Road West, Suite 500, Marlborough, Massachusetts 01752. 6 7 Q. On whose behalf are you submitting this testimony? 8 A. I am submitting this testimony on behalf of Missouri-American Water Company 9 (“MAWC” or the “Company”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Water 10 Works Company, Inc. (“AWW”). 11 12 Q. Please describe your background and professional experience in the energy 13 and utility industries. 14 A. I hold a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Finance from Simmons College and 15 a Master’s degree in Economics from Boston University, with more than 20 years 16 of experience consulting to the energy industry. I have advised numerous energy Page 3 MAWC – DT-AEB 1 and utility clients on a wide range of financial and economic issues with primary 2 concentrations in valuation and utility rate matters. Many of these assignments 3 have included the determination of the cost of capital for valuation and 4 ratemaking purposes. My qualifications and testimony listing are presented in 5 more detail in Attachment A. 6 7 Q. Please describe Concentric’s activities in energy and utility engagements. 8 A. Concentric provides financial and economic advisory services to many and 9 various energy and utility clients across North America. Our regulatory, 10 economic, and market analysis services include utility ratemaking and regulatory 11 advisory services; energy market assessments; market entry and exit analysis; 12 corporate and business unit strategy development; demand forecasting; resource 13 planning; and energy contract negotiations. Our financial advisory activities 14 include buy- and sell-side merger, acquisition, and divestiture assignments; due 15 diligence and valuation assignments; project and corporate finance services; and 16 transaction support services. In addition, we provide litigation support services 17 on a wide range of financial and economic issues on behalf of clients throughout 18 North America. 19 Page 4 MAWC – DT-AEB 1 II. PURPOSE AND OVERVIEW OF TESTIMONY 2 Q. What is the purpose of your Direct Testimony? 3 A. The purpose of my Direct Testimony is to present evidence and provide a 4 recommendation regarding MAWC’s authorized return on equity (“ROE” or “cost 5 of equity”) and to assess the reasonableness of its proposed capital structure for 6 ratemaking purposes. My analyses and recommendations are supported by the 7 data presented in Schedules AEB-1 through AEB-10. 8 9 Q. Please provide a brief overview of the analysis that led to your ROE 10 recommendation. 11 A. In developing my ROE recommendation, I applied the Constant Growth 12 Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model 13 (“CAPM”). In addition to these analyses, I also considered the Value Line 14 projected ROEs for the proxy group companies, and a Constant Growth DCF 15 analysis based on projected dividend yields and share prices. My ROE 16 recommendation also considers the following factors: (1) the risk associated with 17 MAWC’s capital expenditure program relative to the proxy group companies; (2) 18 the effect of environmental regulations on water and wastewater utilities and the 19 costs associated with compliance; and (3) the effect of regulatory lag on the 20 ability of MAWC to earn its authorized ROE, and the Company’s proposals to Page 5 MAWC – DT-AEB 1 reduce regulatory lag by way of a forecast test period through June 30, 2019 and a 2 Revenue Stabilization Mechanism. Although I did not make any specific 3 adjustments to my ROE estimates for the foregoing factors, I considered each of 4 them when determining where the Company’s ROE should fall within the range 5 of analytical results. Finally, I compared MAWC’s proposed capital structure to 6 the actual capital structures of the proxy group companies. 7 8 Q. Please summarize your analytical results. 9 A. My analytical results are summarized in Table 1. Page 6 MAWC – DT-AEB 1 Table 1: Summary of Cost of Equity Results Forward-Looking CAPM Results 2017-2018 2019-2023 Current Risk- Projected Risk- Projected Risk- Mean Free Rate Free Rate Free Rate Result (2.95%) (3.48%) (4.30%) Including AWW1 Bloomberg Beta 10.64% 10.78% 10.99% 10.80% Value Line Beta 10.39% 10.54% 10.78% 10.57% Excluding AWW2 Bloomberg Beta 10.89% 11.02% 11.21% 11.04% Value Line Beta 10.48% 10.63% 10.86% 10.66% 2 1 See Schedule AEB-6. 2 See Schedule AEB-7. Page 7 MAWC – DT-AEB Mean Low Mean Mean High Constant Growth DCF – 90 Day Average3 Including AWW 6.78% 8.85% 11.43% Excluding AWW 6.43% 8.62% 10.88% Constant Growth DCF – Projected DCF Model 2020-20224 Mean Low Mean Mean High Including AWW 7.31% 9.38% 11.97% Excluding AWW 6.89% 9.08% 11.34% Value Line Projected Equity Returns 2020-20225 Low Mean High Including AWW 10.50% 11.94% 14.00% Excluding AWW 11.00% 12.14% 14.00% 1 2 As shown in Schedule AEB-1, the DCF model is producing individual company 3 results as low as 4.82 percent, or 44 basis points lower than MAWC’s embedded 4 cost of long-term debt of 5.26 percent for the 13-month average test year ending 5 June 30, 2019.6 There is more risk associated with owning common equity than 6 debt because shareholders are the residual claimants on the firm’s earnings and 7 assets. As such, the return to equity holders must be higher than the return to 8 bond holders. 3 See Schedule AEB-1. 4 See Schedule AEB-2. 5 Source: Value Line Investment Survey, Water Industry, April 14, 2017, at 1782-1790. 6 Source: Company provided data. Page 8 MAWC – DT-AEB 1 In addition, as discussed in more detail in Section IV of my Direct Testimony, 2 there are concerns among investors and regulators that the DCF model is not 3 producing reasonable results at this time due to anomalous conditions in capital 4 markets. For that reason, my ROE recommendation also considers the results of a 5 forward-looking CAPM analysis and the projected ROEs for the water utilities in 6 the proxy group, as published by Value Line. In addition, I consider company- 7 specific risk factors, and current and prospective capital market conditions. 8 9 Q. What is your conclusion regarding the appropriate authorized ROE for 10 MAWC in this proceeding? 11 A. A reasonable range of ROE estimates for MAWC is from 10.00 percent to 10.80 12 percent. Considering the business and financial risk factors facing MAWC, I 13 believe that an ROE of 10.80 percent is reasonable and appropriate. The required 14 ROE should be a forward-looking estimate; therefore, the analyses supporting my 15 recommendation rely on forward-looking inputs and assumptions (e.g., projected 16 analyst growth rates in the DCF model, forecasted risk-free rate and Market Risk 17 Premium in the CAPM analysis, etc…). I also take into consideration capital 18 market conditions, including the effect of the current low interest rate 19 environment on utility stock valuations and dividend yields, and the market’s 20 expectation for higher interest rates. Page 9 MAWC – DT-AEB 1 2 Q. How is the remainder of your Direct Testimony organized? 3 A. The remainder of my Direct Testimony is organized in seven sections. Section 4 III reviews the regulatory guidelines pertinent to the development of the cost of 5 capital. Section IV discusses the current and prospective capital market conditions 6 and the effect of those conditions on MAWC’s cost of equity. Section V explains 7 my selection of a proxy group of water utilities. Section VI describes my 8 analyses and the analytical basis for the recommendation of the appropriate ROE 9 for MAWC. Section VII provides a discussion of specific business and financial 10 risks that have a direct bearing on the Company’s authorized ROE in this case. 11 Section VIII provides an assessment of the reasonableness of MAWC’s proposed 12 capital structure relative to the proxy group. Section IX presents my conclusions 13 and recommendations. 14 15 III. REGULATORY GUIDELINES 16 Q. Please describe the principles that guide the establishment of the cost of 17 capital for a regulated utility.
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