1 COVID-19 Briefing Memo
June 11, 2020
Exec Summary:
After a week or so of not leading newspaper headlines, the coronavirus is starting to make them again, and not for positive reasons. In fact, the coronavirus’ resurgence in many U.S. states was one of the main factors fueling a sharp fall in the major stock indices today.
As reported by The Associated Press, “stocks fell sharply Thursday on Wall Street as coronavirus cases in the U.S. increased again, deflating recent optimism for a quick economic recovery and raising more doubts about how long the market’s scorching comeback can last.” Adding to the drop off in the markets was investor reaction to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
Wednesday regarding the state of the economy. The AP continues, “Investor optimism for a speedy recovery was also dimmed by the Federal Reserve, which warned Wednesday that the road to recovery from the worst downturn in decades would be long and vowed to keep rates low for the foreseeable future.” At the same time, this week’s jobless report showed another 1.5 million people applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week and Axios this week wrote that “the U.S. saw its largest ever decline in the number of business owners between February and April, as at least 3.3 million shut their doors.” Further, the “reduction from February to April this year [was] more than four times” as much as the entire amount of businesses owners lost across the entire Great Recession. What’s incredible is that even while this bleak economic news continues seemingly day after day, consumers still remain optimistic about the economy’s future.
According to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “Americans are growing more upbeat about what lies ahead for the economy, even as they brace for what they see as a rise in inflationary pressure.” Further, the bank said, “consumers [in May] grew comparatively more optimistic about labor market outcomes with earnings growth, job finding and job loss expectations all slightly improving,” though many key readings still remain “far below” where they were before the pandemic. So, again, we are seeing some dissonance between the optimism consumers feel about their economic future, and what may be the actual reality based on the broader economic data. It could be that the news coverage of states reopening, and a subsequent return to normal activities, is driving this sense of consumer optimism, even though tens of millions of Americans remain unemployed, and for some who have returned to work, it’s been to a job with less hours and/or less pay.
While we just don’t know yet what a second resurgence of coronavirus will do from an economic impact standpoint, what it will likely not do is cause a second round of stay-at-home orders, according to The New York Times. As the paper writes, “in the longer term, as outbreaks wax and wane, public health officials say, there might need to be a period of repeated closings and openings. And that could prove a much harder sell. Amid economic pain unlike anything seen in generations, there simply may not be the same political will, or even desire, to shut things down again. And while the public largely went along with restrictions (which were often not really enforceable on a wide scale, in any case), it remains to be seen if citizens would be so accommodating a second time around.” Again, as The Atlantic wrote last weekend, “the United States has moved from attempting to beat the virus to managing the harm of losing.” 2
Even as the coronavirus begins to make another concerted comeback, many Americans are (for now) still exhibiting a lack of concern regarding the threat of the virus. In this week’s Axios-Ipsos poll, the survey showed that “more Americans are getting braver about testing how they rejoin society.” According to the research, “… just 21% of respondents say they’re very concerned about a coronavirus outbreak, the lowest share since mid-March. And only 13% say they’re very concerned about the possibility of getting sick.” Additionally, “nearly 1 in 4 went out to eat last week, the highest percentage since mid-March,” while “43% see a large or moderate risk in going to grocery store, down from a high of 70% in mid-April.” Lastly, “45% of Americans visited friends or relatives in the last week, up from 38% two weeks ago and basically in line with the 48% in early March” and only “50% of Americans report wearing a mask ‘at all times’ when leaving the home.”
As we continue to head into the summer of travel, and as Americans from all 50 states venture back out to do many of the things once denied them, the spikes in nationwide coronavirus cases serve as an enduring reminder of the lingering threat of the “invisible enemy.” And if a second wave of shutdowns isn’t an option, the alternative will be shifting our mindset from defeating the virus − outside of vaccine development, wearing masks and continuing to practice social distancing, of course − to continuing to find the best and safest ways to go on living life with it. 3
1) Key Economic Indicators
Dow Jones/S&P 500/Nasdaq One-Month Look Back (as of close 6/11):
[Google Market Summary, 6/11/20]
• Associated Press: “Dow sinks 1,800 as virus cases rise, deflating optimism.”
॰॰ “Stocks fell sharply Thursday on Wall Street as coronavirus cases in the U.S. increased again, deflating recent optimism for a quick economic recovery and raising more doubts about how long the market’s scorching comeback can last.”
• “The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 1,800 points and the S&P 500 dropped 5.9%, its worst day since mid-March, when stocks went through repeated harrowing falls as the virus lockdowns began.”
• “Many market watchers have been saying that the comeback in the market since late March was overdone and did not reflect the dire state of an economy in its worst crisis in decades.”
• “Investor optimism for a speedy recovery was also dimmed by the Federal Reserve, which warned Wednesday that the road to recovery from the worst downturn in decades would be long and vowed to keep rates low for the foreseeable future. Those factors, along with the recent run-up in stock prices, set the stage for the wave of selling Thursday.”
[The Associated Press, 6/11/20]
• The Washington Post: “Another 1.5 million workers filed for unemployment insurance.”
॰॰ “Another 1.5 million people applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week, adding to the tens of millions who have applied for the benefits since the pandemic began and continuing a months-long downward trend in initial claims.”
• “The number of gig and formerly self-employed workers who also applied for jobless benefits newly available to them under the expanded federal program went up to 705,000, from 620,000 the week before, according to the Labor Department.”
• “The total number of people receiving benefits edged down to 20.9 million, from a revised 21.3 million the previous week, a staggering toll on the labor force. More than 44 million people have applied for unemployment benefits during the pandemic − about 29% of the workforce.”
[The Washington Post, 6/11/20] 4
• Bloomberg: “Dovish Powell Sees Fed Keeping Foot on Gas Until Jobs Come Back.”
॰॰ “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a powerful message Wednesday that the central bank will keep pumping stimulus into the U.S. economy until its traumatized labor market has healed from the harm of the coronavirus pandemic.”
• “We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates,” he told a video press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee held its policy benchmark near zero and almost all officials forecast keeping it there through 2022.”
• “Acting on mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries underscores their belief that more support is needed,” said
Diane Swonk, chief economist with Grant Thornton in Chicago. “The Fed does not see a victory in the employment bounce-back. The risk of deflation is still high and the economy needs more support to heal more fully.”
[Bloomberg, 6/10/20]
• Bloomberg: “A Booming Stock Market Could Come Back to Bite the Recovery”
॰॰ “If you were to look only at the stock market and nothing else, you’d probably have no clue that 21 million Americans are still out of work. You’d probably think everything in the world is fine. Great, even. … The argument is that market buoyancy such as that on June 5, when a climb of 2.5 million jobs in payrolls sent the S&P 500 up 2.6%, will undo the urgency for more economic stimulus at a time when unemployment still sits above 13%.”
• “The market has been relying on another stimulus package coming,” says Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. If the markets do well and continue to improve, the risk is that Congress may decide not to do more, or at least not to do as much as investors have been counting on.”
[Bloomberg, 6/6/20]
• The Wall Street Journal: “Coronavirus Obliterated Best African-American Job Market on Record.”
॰॰ “Near the end of a decadelong economic expansion, African Americans were finally finding some financial stability. Unemployment had reached record lows, and their wages had begun rising modestly. … The coronavirus pandemic and shutdown brought all of that − one of the most promising economies in recent memory for African Americans − to a crushing end.”
• “The black unemployment rate, which at 5.8% in February was near the lowest since records began in 1972, tripled to 16.8% in May, according to the Labor Department.”
• “Even when unemployment was low, African Americans’ overall economic situation was fragile. As a group, they had less job security and wealth than whites, leaving them especially vulnerable when the economy shut down. That now weighs on their prospects as the steepest economic contraction since the 1930s shows signs of turning.
Historically, African Americans’ recovery from recessions has been much slower than those of other groups.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/9/20] 5
• Axios: “More businesses were lost in the last three months than all of the Great Recession.”
॰॰ “The U.S. saw its largest ever decline in the number of business owners between February and April, as at least 3.3 million shut their doors, a new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research using the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey found.”
• “The record wave of closures was widespread but disproportionately hit minority- and immigrant-owned firms, and ‘may portend longer term ramifications for job losses and economic inequality,’ the study found.”
॰॰ “No other one-, two- or even 12-month window of time has ever shown such a large change in business activity, author Robert W. Fairlie writes.”
• “For comparison, from the start to end of the Great Recession, the number of business owners decreased by 730,000 representing only a 5% reduction.”
• “The reduction from February to April this year is more than four times that much.”
[Axios, 6/9/20]
• Axios: “The U.S. saw only 3.5 million new hires in April”
॰॰ “There were 5.05 million job openings at U.S. companies at the end of April, the lowest total since December 2014, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).”
• “The number of hires during the month was 3.52 million, the lowest in the history of the report, dating back to 2000, and the first time the number of hires has been below 4 million since early 2010.”
[Axios, 6/10/20]
• The Washington Post: “Hard-hit retailers projected to shutter as many as 25,000 stores this year, mostly in malls.”
॰॰ “Consumers may be eager to hit their nearest reopened mall, but it could already be too late for many struggling retailers.”
• “U.S. retailers will shutter 20,000 to 25,000 stores this year, according to projections released Tuesday by Coresight Research, with as much as 60% of those closures occurring in malls. That marks a sharp increase from the 15,000 forecast earlier this year and raises the stakes for a sector already in turmoil before the coronavirus pandemic catapulted the country into recession.”
[The Washington Post, 6/9/20]
• Axios: “The biggest coronavirus hiring slumps”
॰॰ “The pandemic’s upending of the way we work and live has roiled the job market, triggering hiring surges in some sectors and massive slumps in others.” 6
• “Look for some of the pain to last beyond the end of the pandemic. ‘If some of the increase in remote work, distance learning and online entertainment is permanent, these jobs will be threatened by the new at-home economy,’ says Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter.”
॰॰ “Here are the jobs that saw the greatest declines in postings between mid-February and mid-May, according to ZipRecruiter data shared with Axios:”
• Uber/Lyft Driver (-91%) • Flight Attendant (-90%) • Car Washer (-87%) • Tour Guide (-85%) • Retail Store Associate (-84%) • Event/Conference Planner (-82%) • Hotel Staff (-82%) • Office Manager (-81%) • Chef (-80%) • Catering Assistant (-80%)
[Axios, 6/9/20]
• The Washington Post: “Following messy start, enormous Paycheck Protection Program shows signs of buttressing economy.”
॰॰ “Once beset by a flood of complaints, balky computer systems, changed rules and frantic calls to the Treasury Department,
the federal government’s small-business Paycheck Protection Program is suddenly looking like a measured success. … But it also says things would be even worse without the giant loan forgiveness program…”
• “Because the government has released no detailed information about how many jobs the program has saved, it’s still unclear whether it achieved its primary goal of apportioning the lion’s share of the money to workers.”
[The Washington Post, 6/9/20]
• The Wall Street Journal: “Consumers ‘More Optimistic’ About Economy’s Future in May, New York Fed Says.”
॰॰ “Americans are growing more upbeat about what lies ahead for the economy, even as they brace for what they see as a rise in inflationary pressure, a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday.”
• “Consumers grew comparatively more optimistic about labor market outcomes with earnings growth, job finding, and job loss expectations all slightly improving,” the bank said in its May Survey of Consumer Expectations. But the bank noted that whatever improvement there has been, key readings in the survey still remain “far below” where they were before the coronavirus pandemic took hold earlier this year.”
• “It showed a “significant decline” in expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now. Expectations of losing a job declined, while expectations of finding new work rose, the report said. The New York Fed said consumers’ view of their personal finances remained “depressed” in May but showed some improvement.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/8/20] 7
• The Washington Post: “14 states and Puerto Rico hit highest seven-day average of new coronavirus infections.”
॰॰ “As rates of coronavirus infections ease in places such as New York and Illinois and onetime hot spots move into new
phases of reopening, parts of the country that had previously avoided being hit hard by the outbreak are now tallying record-high new infections.”
• “Since the start of June, 14 states and Puerto Rico have recorded their highest ever seven-day average of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, according to data tracked by The Washington Post: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.”
• “If the pandemic’s first wave burned through dense metro hubs such as New York City, Chicago and Detroit, the highest percentages of new cases are coming from places with much smaller populations…”
[The New York Times, 6/8/20]
• The New York Times: “The World Reopens, Despite Skyrocketing Coronavirus Cases.”
॰॰ “Two months ago, when there were roughly 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases and the primal politics of survival was sweeping the world, shutting down was the order of the day. This week, the number of cases soared past 7 million, with 136,000 new infections detected on Sunday alone, the highest single-day total since the pandemic began. The order of the day? Reopening.”
• “Terrified after watching economies built over the course of decades hollow out in a matter of weeks, countries seem to be saying, in effect: Enough. For health officials who have been watching the virus with alarm as it began claiming a foothold in continent after continent, it is a dizzying moment.”
• “In the longer term, as outbreaks wax and wane, public health officials say, there might need to be a period of repeated closings and openings. And that could prove a much harder sell. Amid economic pain unlike anything seen in generations, there simply may not be the same political will, or even desire, to shut things down again. And while the public largely went along with restrictions (which were often not really enforceable on a wide scale, in any case), it remains to be seen if citizens would be so accommodating a second time around.”
[The New York Times, 6/9/20]
• The Wall Street Journal: “Moving to Reopen, Europe Goes Into Regulatory Overdrive.”
॰॰ “Europe is lifting its lockdowns, but the new rules to battle the coronavirus are baffling Europeans as the continent goes into a familiar mode: regulatory overdrive.”
• “Central governments, local authorities and health-and-safety regulators can all have their say, and do so often. The result is a patchwork of ever-changing rules that vary from country to country, from city to city, and sometimes even between neighborhoods.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/9/20] 8
2) Social Listening Report: “The Impact of Coronavirus”
• Date Range: June 4 – June 11
National Travel Intent:
Although the numbers for hotel occupancy and airline capacity are still low compared to the same time last year, they are increasing. According to Destination Analysis, 70% of respondents say they will take at least one leisure trip in the remainder of 2020. The expectation is that more people will travel in the coming weeks and months as they continue to feel mor comfortable doing so.
Overall, Americans are certainly becoming more optimistic about traveling and more eager to do so. Our social conversation reporting for the last week shows the segment called “desire to travel” is currently the largest share of voice (54%), becoming particularly prominent over the last few days. Currently, many people are only talking about the idea of travel, and still easing into the idea of actually doing something concrete. Some may be waiting to see how the first wave of travel (from early June) pans out, others could be waiting until a certain destination (possibly international) or activity reopens. In previous memos, one of the most prominent topics was the desire to visit Disney, and with their announcement of reopening dates in July, it’s likely that as tourist destinations like this reopen, we will see traveler numbers increase.
Our social analysis also tells us people are looking to stay closer to home and visit family, and this is supported by a Harris Poll report that says 65% of Americans consider visits to see close family members as essential travel. However, there is a conversation about visiting fun, getaway destinations like Vegas, Hawaii and Miami, as well.
We can see the theme of staying close to home appear in our topic wheel (see right). The wheel shows the main themes of the overall conversation, which is showing more consistency over the last few weeks. We previously mentioned road trips being a popular topic and they continue to be a large share of the conversation, as well as Airbnb, vacation, and booking flights. The “book a flight” topic is, interestingly, connected to sub-themes like “birthday” and “ASAP,” which tells us that there is a purpose and an urgency to these travel plans. We can also see a lot of the phrase “so bad” in this topic wheel, which further indicates the urgency people feel to travel.
While many are now traveling now, the important segment to remember is the second wave. These are the travelers who are just as eager to get out but need time to feel comfortable – especially after observing others having a good time, safely. A continued emphasis to speak to this group is key in good travel marketing strategy. 9
Travel Intent Breakdown:
• Strong Intent (traveling now) (34%) – Down 30 pts. This topic is meant to show the conversations of people who have already booked their travel or are very intent to do so. Over the last week, people are naming places they are booking (or need to book) like Vegas, Houston, Hawaii, Miami, LA, and Arizona. For most, they are planning to visit family or friends. A lot of the conversation is related to “booking/booked my birthday plans.” Some are feeling nervous or paranoid about booking, but it’s unclear if this is because they are worried the flight could be cancelled or because of the threat of the virus.
• Medium Intent (desire to travel) (55%) – Up 36 pts. This topic is intended to categorize the conversation that is about the general desire to travel, whether it’s in 2020 or beyond. Over the last week, this conversation has continued to be very general and does not name specific places, plans, or timing; however, we can see the dominant theme within this segment is road trips. Many say they want to road trip, but again, do not provide specifics. Despite all the generality in this segment, over the last few days, this segment of the conversation has grown quite a bit.
• Low Intent (waiting until it’s safe to travel) (12%) – Down 7pts. This topic is categorizing those who are not ready to travel, more
specifically, they are waiting until travel is safe again. Over the last week, there are mentions about being hopeful that travel will be safe soon. It’s clear this group has pent up demand and wants to travel as a way to recharge, but they are stopping themselves because of the risk. They are eager to leave their homes and “get out” as soon as it is safe, but it’s unclear when they believe it will be “safe again” and when the virus will be “over with.”
*Please remember that the algorithm does its best interpreting natural language and mixed themes. Percentages should be used as directional only. 10
3) Consumer Research
• Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: “Protesters Fear the Spread”
॰॰ “Eight in 10 Americans worry that mass demonstrations around George Floyd’s killing, police brutality and structural racism could trigger new coronavirus infections, in Week 12 of the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index.”
• “More than 1 in 10 people surveyed has an immediate family member or close friend who’s participated and 2% say they’ve taken part themselves. That puts tens of millions of people in close contact with protesters.”
॰॰ “Most Americans, 86%, say protesting poses a large or moderate risk to their health. That’s huge compared with how Americans assess the risks of activities such as returning to work as normal, retail shopping, getting a haircut, or even going out to dinner − all of which have declined significantly over the past week.”
॰॰ “The findings in the latest installment of our weekly national survey come as states move forward with phased reopening of
their economies and as more Americans are getting braver about testing how they rejoin society.”
• “Setting the protests aside, just 21% of respondents say they’re very concerned about a coronavirus outbreak, the lowest share since mid-March. And only 13% say they’re very concerned about the possibility of getting sick.”
• “Nearly 1 in 4 went out to eat last week, the highest percentage since mid-March.”
• “And 43% see a large or moderate risk in going to grocery store, down from a high of 70% in mid-April.”
॰॰ “The protests may actually be having the effect of driving down people’s perceptions of other risks, said pollster Chris Jackson, senior vice president for Ipsos Public Affairs: “If something else comes along that’s so much more exceptional, people will gravitate to that and that will reset how they evaluate everything else.”
• “Some perceptions of risk around returning to more mundane activities such as shopping and dining may be easing as people test the waters and don’t immediately get sick.”
• “But the searing images of thousands in the streets with masks on also may be making other activities seem less risky by comparison, and that could give people a false sense of security about a return to normal.”
॰॰ “This comes as total social distancing draws to a close, although people remain slow to reengage in commercial activities.”
• “Forty-five percent of Americans visited friends or relatives in the last week, up from 38% two weeks ago and basically in line with the 48% in early March as our tracking and the pandemic began.”
• “Only a quarter (26%) report self-quarantining (down from 35%), and 80% report social distancing (down from 87%).”
॰॰ “Most Americans continue to wear masks out of home, with only a few reporting altercations based on mask use.”
• “Fifty percent of Americans report wearing a mask ‘at all times’ when leaving the home with an additional 27% reporting wearing one some, but not all the time. Only 10% report never wearing a mask.”
• “Among people who, at least occasionally, do not wear a mask, 15% report that they’ve been told by someone else to put one on, and over a quarter (28%) say they’ve not been allowed into an establishment without a mask.” 11
[Axios, 6/9/20; Ipsos, 6/9/20]
• The Harris Poll: Wave 15
॰॰ 1. The Great Reset: “As reported in by The New York Times’ Dealbook yesterday, The Harris Poll and JUST Capital found that
many Americans are demanding a fundamental shift in our economic system post-COVID-19:”
• “An overwhelming majority of Americans (89%) believe this pandemic has exposed underlying structural problems and big business must “reset” their priorities. A quarter (25%) of Americans go as far as to argue that capitalism is no longer good for society.”
• “Three-quarters (76%) of Americans claimed they would remember the missteps businesses made during the pandemic “long after it is over.” Eighty percent of Americans say they will remember the companies that “did the
right thing by their workers.”
• “More than three quarters of Americans (77%) believe there is systematic racism in America with nearly 9 in 10 (88%) of
Americans saying racial equality will be an important issue to them personally moving forward − up from 77% just three weeks ago (May 22).”
• “Companies have a role to play in the movement for racial equality: A majority of Americans (57%) say companies should provide a public statement on the black lives matter movement and racial inequality in America. And half of Americans (53%) say their place of employment has made meaningful efforts to acknowledge and address racial inequality.” 12
• Takeaway: “The public has demanded big business change to better meet society needs. And encouragingly, corporate America has been seen as part of the solution to this crisis, [not] the problem. The widespread lift in corporate reputation we see in our Harris data reinforces the opportunity for business to lead social change.”
॰॰ 2. Cars Are the New Planes: “Americans miss gathering with close family/friends and are eager to reconnect through
in-person events as restrictions begin to lift, but how will they get there? Personal vehicles will be the choice for movement in a post-COVID-19 world, as they are overwhelmingly seen as the safest means of transportation now and in the future.”
• “The majority of Americans (65%) consider visits to see close family members as essential travel, while over half (53%) feel the same about travel for weddings, graduations, etc., of immediate family and close friends, and 46% consider visits to see close friends essential.”
• “Almost 1 in 5 Americans (18%) say they are in the market for a new car once restrictions lift, up from 11% in March.”
• “But 65% say they’ll substitute vacation travel and 67% short-distance business travel with driving (although this is down eight and 12 points respectively from last week).”
• “Cars are overwhelmingly viewed as the safest means of transportation right now with 90% of Americans viewing them as very safe or somewhat safe, they are also anticipated to be the safest three months from now by a wide margin (89%).”
• Takeaway: “Americans feel their car envelops them in a level of safety that other transportation choices cannot offer. The urge to get out and reconnect as restrictions lift while maintaining the feeling of safety should drive more personal vehicle usage, oil and gas, and purchase intent (as well as the associated service and maintenance) at least through the remainder of the year.”
[The Harris Poll, 6/10/20]
• Morning Consult: “Bigger Than the Boardroom: Evolving Expectations of Today’s CEOs”
॰॰ “A CEO’s remit is rapidly evolving: The most important attribute driving a CEO’s performance and reputation is a CEO’s positive contribution to society.”
॰॰ “Stakeholder capitalism is here to stay: Key decision-makers, whether consumers driving business value through their purchases or investors driving business value in other ways, want companies to prioritize the needs of employees and customers above those of shareholders − a trend gaining strength since late 2019.”
॰॰ “The current challenge and executive opportunity: Sixty-nine percent of adults say that how CEOs react and express themselves on topics such as Black Lives Matter will permanently affect their decision to buy from their company, while 71% of consumers feel CEOs are responsible for helping during the pandemic.” 13 14 15
[Morning Consult, 6/10/20] 16
4) Industry & Category-Specific Data
• ADVERTISING: “‘Morally Impossible’: Some Advertisers Take a Timeout from Facebook.”
॰॰ “In recent days, many companies have cautiously returned to advertising, after having pulled back during the height of the pandemic in the United States. But some have decided not to advertise on Facebook now that it has become clear that Mr. Zuckerberg will give the president a wide berth.”
• “Some smaller advertisers, including authors, therapy providers and payment companies, described their break from Facebook as a protest against the platform and its subsidiaries.”
[The New York Times, 6/9/20]
• AIRLINES: “Flying Was Once Routine. During the Pandemic, It’s a Feat.”
॰॰ “Last week I stepped aboard the subway in Frankfurt for the first time since February, the start of a 4,000-mile trans-Atlantic
journey to rejoin my wife after a three-month separation.”
• “The trip to the United States is one I’ve made dozens of times over the quarter-century I’ve lived and worked in Germany.
But this time, in the midst of the pandemic, it felt like a voyage into the unknown.”
• “By the end of a long day, I would be with my wife, Bettina. But the experience, sometimes frustrating, sometimes surreal, left me with the impression that flying would never be the same again.”
[The New York Times, 6/9/20]
• AIRLINES: “Airlines projected to lose $84 billion this year.”
॰॰ “The world’s airlines will lose $84 billion in 2020, according to the latest estimate by IATA.”
• “Financially, 2020 will go down as the worst year in the history of aviation,” IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said. “On average, every day of this year will add $230 million to industry losses.”
॰॰ “The trade group projects that passengers will fly 54.7% fewer miles this year than last, with airlines offering 40.4% less capacity. In North America, passenger miles flown will be down an estimated 52.6% this year on 35.2% less capacity. The North American airline industry will lose $23.1 billion this year, according to the estimate.”
[Travel Weekly, 6/9/20] 17
• ENERGY: “90% Clean Grid by 2035 Is Not Just Feasible, But Cheaper, Study Says.”
॰॰ “It will be feasible to power the U.S. on 90% clean electricity by 2035 thanks to stunning declines in the costs of renewables, a new study finds.”
• “The new study, from UC Berkeley and GridLab, raises the stakes considerably. By using updated cost figures for wind, solar and batteries, the researchers found that it will be economically feasible to power a reliable grid by 2035, while only depending on natural gas for 10% of annual electricity production.”
[Greentech Media, 6/9/20]
• ENTERTAINMENT: “Disney lays out reopening plan for California resort”
॰॰ “Disney plans to reopen its theme parks at the Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, Calif., on July 17. Similar to its plan at the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida, Disney is doing a phased reopening.”
• “Pending approval from local and state governments, Disney plans to open its shopping, dining and entertainment complex, Downtown Disney, on July 9. The Disneyland and Disney California Adventure parks would follow on July 17. The Grand Californian Hotel & Spa and Disney’s Paradise Pier Hotel would reopen July 23. Disney said the Disneyland Hotel will reopen at a later date.”
[Travel Weekly, 6/10/20]
• ENTERTAINMENT: “Movie Theater Giant AMC Eyes Reopening After Huge Coronavirus Blow.”
॰॰ “AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., the world’s largest movie-theater chain, registered a $2.2 billion net loss in the first quarter, underscoring the devastating economic blow the pandemic has had on the exhibition industry.”
• “To survive, AMC needs to get all of its theaters open and selling tickets again, a move AMC chief executive, Adam Aron, said Tuesday he expects to happen by July. “We believe there will be a significant pent-up demand to get back into the world,” he said. … With more than 1,000 theaters playing movies on over 11,000 screens in several countries, AMC is among the most high profile of companies, whose revenue relies entirely on public gatherings, that can weather the shutdown.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/9/20]
• GAMING: “Sports bettors pivot to stocks.”
॰॰ “Professional investors have largely abandoned the stock market since the coronavirus pandemic sent U.S. stocks to the
fastest bear market in history, but a massive group of sports bettors and bored millennials have jumped into the retail stock trading market with both feet…”
• “Online brokerages have seen a record number of new accounts opened this year, and the big four: ETrade, TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers, executed as many trades in March and April as in the whole first half of last year, per public disclosures.” 18
॰॰ “Retail traders have shown unusual buying patterns, and the use of educational resources is ‘three to four times what we’d normally see,’ Steven Quirk, EVP of trading and education at TD Ameritrade, told Axios last month; evidence that users are new to investing. … Robinhood, whose easy-to-use app makes the transition between sports betting and trading seamless, boasts a similar customer base to most sportsbooks, notes Marc Rubinstein in his newsletter, Net Interest.”
[Axios, 6/9/20]
• GAMING: “Individuals Roll the Dice on Stocks as Veterans Fret.”
॰॰ “Another reason for the rise: Individual investors, some new to the market, are showing a sudden appetite for risk. If shares keep rising, the newbies and others will be rewarded. However, the recent action reminds some veterans of past speculative frenzies, some of which ended badly, especially for investors who climbed on board late.”
• “Online brokers are being flooded with new customers. About 1.2 million retail clients started new brokerage accounts at Fidelity Investments between March and May, a 77% increase from the same period last year. TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. reported 608,000 new funded accounts in the three-month period ending March 31, a
249% increase from the year-earlier period. In March alone, new and existing retail clients opened 426,000 funded accounts, the company said.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/9/20]
• GAMING: “With Real-Life Games Halted, Betting World Puts Action on E-Sports”
॰॰ “Now, in the thick of the coronavirus pandemic, with traditional sports moribund and casinos reeling, no one in the half- trillion-dollar global gambling industry is laughing at e-sports. Instead, they are rushing to offer more betting on it.”
• “Even as overall wagering has declined, betting companies have been buoyed by an enduring casino truism: Gamblers find things to gamble on. Since March, bettors have flocked to computer games and easily understood digital simulacrums of soccer, basketball and football.”
॰॰ “Many video game publishers are struggling to respond to the surge, and industry reports in Europe, where sports betting is ubiquitous, indicate that half of all such wagering since early March has been on e-sports. Some bookmakers have seen increases in e-sports betting of more than 40 times during that time.”
[The New York Times, 6/8/20]
• HEALTH CARE: “‘I have never felt so helpless’: Front-line workers confront loss”
॰॰ “Doctors, nurses and emergency medical technicians are supposed to be the superheroes of the pandemic. They are immortalized in graffiti, songs belted out from balcony windows and tributes erected from Times Square to the Eiffel Tower.
But despite the accolades, many confide that the past months have left them feeling lost, alone, unable to sleep. They second-guess their decisions; experience panic attacks; worry constantly about their patients, their families and themselves; and feel tremendous anxiety about how and when this might end.” 19
• “The unfathomable loss of more than 100,000 Americans within a matter of weeks, many in isolation, without family or friends, has inflicted a level of trauma few anticipated when they signed up for these jobs. … As the first wave of patients subsides, many are struggling with the death and devastation they saw close up and, perhaps most difficult, with their own inability to do more, to save more people’s lives.”
[The Washington Post, 6/7/20]
• HEALTH CARE: “The pandemic isn’t hurting health care companies.”
॰॰ “A global coronavirus pandemic, social unrest, mass unemployment, and the halting of medical procedures hasn’t been enough to derail Wall Street’s rosy view of the health care industry.”
• “The coronavirus started to affect the economy toward the tail end of the first quarter, but the health care industry was relatively unscathed.”
• “Pharmaceutical companies and health insurers generated the highest returns. Wall Street believes drug
companies stand to benefit from potential coronavirus treatments or vaccines.”
• “Investors can’t resist health care’s track record for profitability.”
[Axios, 6/9/20]
• HEALTH CARE: “More price-fixing lawsuits hit the generic drug industry.”
॰॰ “A coalition of state attorneys general has sued more than two dozen generic drug companies and high-ranking executives, accusing them of conspiring to fix prices of their prescription pills and creams. Health insurer Cigna similarly filed a lawsuit of its own, arguing the price-fixing schemes led to massive ‘overcharges.’”
• “These lawsuits build on previous ones, as well as three criminal admissions of guilt, and paint a bleak picture of the industry’s practices.”
[Axios, 6/11/20]
• HOTELS: “For Staff Living in Empty Hotels, It’s All Work and a Little Play.”
॰॰ “From his new home in Room 16, [Farmhouse Inn owner Joe] Bartolomei now acts as a security guard, surveying the property and parking lot from a central, second-floor perch. He’s also feeding the cats and chickens that live on the six-acre
grounds, pulling weeds, replacing light bulbs, and making upgrades throughout the inn, temporarily wearing the many hats of a 90-member, mostly furloughed staff.”
• “Over the last three months, I’ve sat at every desk, I’ve done just about every job that needs to be done, and now, I have a better understanding of what it takes to make this place run,” Bartolomei says. For him and many other execs who’ve turned into jacks-of-all-hospitality-trades, doing the dirty work now is equipping them to become better leaders later.”
[Bloomberg, 6/9/20] 20
• SOCIETY: “No More Pizza Fridays: Companies Find New Perks for the Remote Worker.”
॰॰ “As many companies enter a third month of lockdown with no clear end in sight, employers are toying with new perks that might address some of the struggles remote workers are facing on their own.”
• “Businesses are increasingly seeing the importance of addressing the impact that chronic stress has on people − or on their bottom lines from lost productivity, health care spend and attrition,” Ms. Crittendon said.”
॰॰ “Employers are also trying to compensate for the loss of perks tied to the office, like free lunches in the cafeteria, or tied to places that are closed at the moment, like subsidized gym memberships.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/8/20]
• SPORTS: “Baseball squandered its chance at a best-case return. Now it is left with a mess.”
॰॰ “There will almost certainly be a Major League Baseball season in 2020, a reality that reflects less a strong degree of
confidence in MLB and its players’ union striking an economic deal and more an acknowledgment that commissioner Rob Manfred can essentially impose his will, with some caveats, in the absence of one. Whatever that ends up looking like, it will satisfy almost no one and infuriate many.”
॰॰ “The gulf between the season baseball could have had and the one it probably will wind up defaulting to − a mini-season of between 48 and 60 games and a postseason MLB hopes can be squeezed in before an expected second wave of the
novel coronavirus in the fall − is vast enough to engender disgust from all who call themselves baseball fans.”
[The Washington Post, 6/9/20]
• TECHNOLOGY: “The Pandemic Is Transforming the Rental Economy”
॰॰ “It’s not just short-term room rentals. The pandemic is making the prospect of renting anything suddenly fraught. Many rental-based markets saw their customers recoil or disappear as COVID-19 swept through the U.S. By the time cities across the nation began easing their stay-at-home orders, the fallow period had already wreaked havoc on some rental companies.”
• “Market research firm Mintel has found that the outlook for the rental companies is actually fairly good. Gabrielle Lieberman, the company’s director of trends and social media research in the US, says the rental economy is “really quite well-positioned” for this uncertain moment. In addition to the public health emergency, COVID-19 has also spurred a severe employment crisis, and Lieberman sees rental companies as poised to flourish, because people are cautious about spending.”
• “Because people tend to be more careful with money during economic downturns, Meyvis suspects people may choose renting certain goods and services over owning them to avoid the steep price tags of big-ticket purchases.”
[Wired, 6/8/20] 21
• TECHNOLOGY: “Tesla Shares Soar Past $1,000 on Elon Musk’s Plan to Move Forward with Semi Truck.”
॰॰ “Tesla Inc. investors pushed the auto maker’s stock to more than $1,000 a share Wednesday, lifting its valuation closer to
Toyota Motor Corp.’s, after chief executive, Elon Musk, told employees it was time to begin volume production of the company’s long-promised, all-electric semitrailer truck.”
• “The overall investor enthusiasm is part of a broader excitement for electric vehicles and a belief that the future of ground transportation may be powered with batteries not gasoline, even though customers haven’t yet flocked to the technology.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 6/10/20]
• TRANSPORTATION: “Ridership surges from protests and region’s reopening prompt Metro to tweak coronavirus recovery plan.”
॰॰ “Spurred in part by the surge in ridership from last weekend’s protests, Metro has tweaked its pandemic recovery plan to add capacity on trains and buses as the Washington region continues its reopening. Metro is in the “stabilization” phase of its coronavirus recovery plan, operating about 35% of normal service. The transit agency doesn’t plan to increase service significantly until school is back in session this fall, when service could be at 75% to 80%, officials said.”
• “However, with the District, Maryland and Northern Virginia lifting some business and social restrictions over the past two weeks, riders have begun to return. During the first week of June, Metrobus recorded 140,000 passenger trips, equivalent to riders, every weekday but one, agency data shows. Passenger trips had been in the 110,000 to 130,000 range since mid-March.”
• “Board members will also hear the results of new customer surveys that have helped guide the transit agency’s decisions. According to the surveys, Metro riders doubled their trips to see friends or family in May vs. April. Those trips jumped from 9% of all trips taken to 23%, according to survey results.”
[The Washington Post, 6/9/20]
• TRAVEL/TOURISM: “California hotels can reopen on June 12.”
॰॰ “California will reopen to leisure travel on June 12, allowing many of the state’s hotels to begin welcoming tourists again.”
• “California counties are required to provide a mandatory health report to the California Department of Public Health, ensuring they meet the state’s COVID-19 health benchmarks. Hotels cannot reopen until their county submits a report. As of June 8, all but eight of the state’s 58 counties have submitted reports.”
• “According to the California Hotel and Lodging Association, more than 6,000 member hotels say they are ready to reopen on June 12. To support California hotels, the hotel association unveiled its Clean + Safe guide and self- certification process, which offers hoteliers access to best practices, employee trainings, signage and regulatory forms.”
[Travel Weekly, 6/10/20] 22
• TRAVEL/TROURISM: “Travel Industry to Switch On More Automated Processes to Cope with Reduced Staffing.”
॰॰ “Travel firms are looking to automate some back-end processes to help cope with a return to ordinary volumes of business. Automation isn’t a new trend. But the pandemic may speed it up. Some companies are deploying more automation to limit the interaction between staff and passengers, while others are automating processes to cope with reduced staffing during the recovery.”
• “Consumers may also have become more accepting of some types of automation because they had limited mobility and restricted access to services while under stay-at-home orders during the pandemic.”
[Skift, 6/10/20]