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Empfehlungsliste Österreich Inhalt: Erste Group Research Highlights der Woche 2 Übersicht Empfehlungen Österreich 3 Aktienempfehlungen Österreich Addiko 4 Agrana 5 Empfehlungsliste Österreich AMAG 6 27.01.2020 Andritz 7 AT&S 8 Neue Analyse(n): UBM BAWAG 9 CA Immo 10 DO & CO 11 FACC 12 Analysten Editor Flughafen Wien 13 Immofinanz 14 Christoph Schultes, MBA, CIIA Henning Eßkuchen Kapsch TrafficCom 15 [email protected] [email protected] Lenzing 16 Marinomed 17 Nora Nagy Schlusskurse vom Mayr-Melnhof 18 Vladimira Urbankova, MBA 24.01.2020 OMV 19 Daniel Lion, CIIA Österreichische Post 20 Thomas Unger, CFA Fertigstellung Palfinger 21 Michael Marschallinger, CFA 27.01.2020 15:10 Polytec 22 Tamás Pletser, CFA PORR 23 Petr Bartek Veröffentlichung Raiffeisen Bank International 24 27.01.2020 15:38 S Immo 25 SBO 26 Semperit 27 STRABAG 28 Telekom Austria 29 UBM 30 UNIQA 31 Verbund 32 Vienna Insurance Group 33 Die dargestellten Wertentwicklungen und Beispielrechnungen lassen keine voestalpine 34 verlässlichen Rückschlüsse auf die zukünftige Entwicklung eines Wertpapiers bzw Warimpex 35 Finanzprodukts zu. Hinweise auf die frühere Performance garantieren nicht Wienerberger 36 notwendigerweise positive Entwicklungen in der Zukunft und Geschäfte in Zumtobel 37 Wertpapieren bzw Finanzprodukten können riskant bzw. spekulativ sein. AMS 1 38 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) ATX und internationale Indizes 1 Woche 1 Jahr Highlights der Woche ATX -0.9% 4.9% Aktienmärkte DAX 0.4% 20.3% Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2% 18.4% • Die meisten Aktienindizes gehen mit geringen Kursverlusten aus der Woche, der S&P 500 -1.0% 23.7% ATX verliert 0,9% NASDAQ 100 -0.4% 34.7% • Defensive Aktien werden gesucht, zyklische Aktien gegeben Nikkei 225 -0.9% 14.7% • In Wien gewinnen DO & CO und UBM mehr als 3%, unter den Gewinnern der Hong Kong Hang Seng -3.8% 1.4% Woche befindet sich auch die S Immo nach ihrer Kapitalerhöhung Österreich Top/Flop Unternehmen Österreich 1 Woche 1 Jahr UBM: Empfehlung auf Akkumulieren zurückgenommen mit Kursziel EUR 56 DO & CO 3.6% 4.3% ams: Ao. HV genehmigt Kapitalerhöhung über rund EUR 1,65 Mrd. für OSRAM- UBM 3.1% 33.9% S Immo 2.3% 38.3% Übernahme Palfinger -5.3% 7.0% S Immo: Knapp EUR 150 Mio. frisches Kapital für weiteres Wachstum geholt Rosenbauer -5.3% 1.2% OMV: 4Q 2019 erreichte höchste Gesamtproduktion im Upstream-Bereich, SBO -7.2% -32.2% Downstream wie erwartet schwächer SBO: Trotz US-Marktschwäche erzielte SBO 2019 ein solides Ergebnis Europe Stoxx SektorenTop/Flop FACC: Management bekräftigt Wachstumskurs und Fokus auf Profitabilität am 1 Woche 1 Jahr diesjährigen Kapitalmarkttag Utilities 3.2% 28.1% Real Estate 1.5% 16.2% Agrana: Rückkehr in Gewinnzone im 3. Quartal 2019/20 wie erwartet, Ergebnisziel Financial Services 1.5% 32.6% für Gesamtjahr intakt Travel & Leisure -2.5% 9.6% Flughafen Wien: Starkes Passagierwachstum 2019, positiver Ausblick 2020 Basic Resources -3.3% 4.5% Automobiles & Parts -3.9% -2.7% Finanzkalender Diese Woche stehen keine Unternehmensergebnisse an. Rohstoffe/Währungen 1 Woche Kurs Unsere aktuellen Empfehlungen Öl Brent (USD) -6.4% 60.7 Gold (USD) 0.9% 1,571.5 Addiko Bank, AT&S, CA Immo, FACC, Marinomed, Vienna Insurance Group, USD -0.6% 1.10 RBI, OMV, Mayr-Melnhof, Palfinger, DO & CO, Warimpex, ams CHF -0.3% 1.07 Chart Renditen Staatsanleihen Der ATX befindet sich in einer (hoffentlich) kurzfristigen Konsolidierungsphase. Der 1 Woche Rendite gleitende Durchschnitt der letzten 50 Tage wurde durchbrochen, als Unterstützung Österreich 10 Jahre 336.1% -0.16% sollte nun die 200-Tage-Linie fungieren. Deutschland 10 Jahre 55.8% -0.34% 2 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) Übersicht Empfehlungen Österreich Empfehlung* Kursziel Aktueller Kurs Kurspotenzial** Dividendenrendite*** KGV*** Addiko Kaufen 24.0 14.5 65.5% 16.4% 6.0x Agrana Halten 19.5 19.2 1.5% #WERT! #WERT! neg. AMAG Halten 32.4 28.7 12.9% 4.0% 30.6x Andritz Akkumulieren 43.1 37.6 14.7% 4.0% 13.9x AT&S Kaufen 23.3 22.2 5.0% 1.5% 17.4x BAWAG Halten 40.0 39.5 1.2% 6.3% 8.4x CA Immo Kaufen 38.0 39.7 -4.3% 2.4% 31.0x DO & CO Kaufen 112.0 92.0 21.7% 0.9% 31.7x FACC Kaufen 14.5 12.4 16.7% 1.3% 20.2x Vienna Int. Airport Akkumulieren 43.5 37.0 17.6% 3.2% 18.6x Immofinanz Akkumulieren 28.0 24.9 12.7% 3.7% 23.1x Kapsch TrafficCom Halten 30.0 27.2 10.3% 3.8% 19.7x Lenzing Akkumulieren 101.5 80.0 26.9% 3.8% 14.7x Marinomed Kaufen 133.0 98.5 35.0% 0.0% neg. Mayr-Melnhof Kaufen 138.6 127.0 9.1% 2.8% 13.6x Österreichische Post Akkumulieren 36.0 34.8 3.6% 6.1% 14.6x OMV Kaufen 60.0 47.2 27.2% 4.2% 8.9x Palfinger Kaufen 38.9 28.4 37.2% 2.6% 12.5x Polytec Halten 9.8 8.4 17.1% 3.7% 8.3x PORR (Under review) 15.7 4.3% 11.7x RBI Kaufen 27.0 21.1 28.0% 5.4% 6.0x S IMMO Akkumulieren 23.5 22.6 4.0% 3.2% 22.5x Schoeller-Bleckmann Akkumulieren 60.5 45.8 32.2% 2.6% 21.6x Semperit Halten 13.6 11.7 15.8% 0.0% neg. Strabag Kaufen 42.9 30.7 39.8% 4.4% 9.7x Telekom Austria Akkumulieren 7.8 7.4 5.8% 2.9% 11.9x UBM Akkumulieren 56.0 49.8 12.4% 5.0% 8.2x UNIQA Akkumulieren 9.7 8.8 10.2% 6.2% 12.3x Verbund Reduzieren 46.0 47.0 -2.1% 1.5% 29.5x Vienna Insurance Group Kaufen 29.0 25.6 13.5% 4.2% 10.9x voestalpine Halten 28.0 23.4 19.9% 3.1% 144.0x Warimpex Kaufen 2.1 1.6 28.8% 5.0% 1.7x Wienerberger Halten 22.8 24.9 -8.6% 2.6% 12.4x Zumtobel Halten 8.5 9.4 -9.6% 1.0% 14.2x AMS Kaufen 58.0 41.5 39.9% 0.4% 10.0x 3 * In Klammern Empfehlungen, deren Kursziele deutlichFor the exclusiveüber- bzw. use unterschritten of Erste Group wurden Client ** 12-Monatssicht(Erste Group) ab Erscheinen der Analyse *** laufendes GJ Addiko Bank Kaufen, Kursziel EUR 24.0 Schlusskurs vom 24.01.2020 14.54 Konsensusempfehlungen Analyst(in) Mladen Dodig Marktkapitalisierung (EUR Mio.) 283.5 Kaufen 4 Datum der letzten Analyse 23.08.2019 Streubesitz (%) 100.0 Halten 1 Ex Dividenden Tag ISIN AT000ADDIKO0 Verkaufen 0 Finanzkalender (Y) 04.03.2020 Unternehmen Konsensus, EUR 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Die Addiko Bank ging aus dem ehemaligen Osteuropa-Netzw erk der Hypo- Betriebserträge (Mio.) 249.5 278.3 305.7 Alpe-Adria hervor und ist eine auf das Geschäft mit Konsumenten und Zinsüberschuss (Mio.) 173.2 KMU spezialisierte Bankengruppe mit Tochterbanken in Kroatien, Vorsteuerergebnis (Mio.) 103.7 44.6 58.4 71.4 Slow enien, Bosnien und Herzegow ina, Serbien und Montenegro. Nettoergebnis (Mio.) 104.2 44.7 47.8 57.7 Gew inn/Aktie 1.65 2.46 2.91 Empfehlung Dividende/Aktie 2.39 1.64 1.22 Kaufen. Die Addiko Bank steht zw ar erst am Beginn ihrer Transformation, Materieller BW/Aktie verfügt jedoch über eine starke Kapitalbasis. Die niedrige Bew ertung Buchw ert/Aktie 43.9 45.4 47.4 gekoppelt mit den erw arteten hohen Dividendenrenditen sprechen für die KGV (x) 6.0 5.6 4.8 Aktie. Risikofaktoren: relativ kleine Größe, enger Fokus Eigenkapitalrendite (%) 12.2 5.4 5.5 6.4 Kurs/Buchw ert (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 5-Jahres-Chart (EUR) Dividendenrendite (%) 16.4 11.3 8.4 20.0 .600 .500 Die Addiko Bank berichtete ein solides 3. Quartal, das jedoch von 15.0 Einmaleffekten (hauptsächlich Rückstellung für Rechtsangelegenheiten für .400 CHF-Währungsklauseln in Kroatien) belastet w ar. Während das bereinigte 10.0 .300 Ergebnis nach Steuern in den ersten drei Quartalen EUR 39,6 Mio. erreichte (+44% gegenüber dem Vorjahr), sank das ausgew iesene .200 Ergebnis nach Steuern auf EUR 23,4 Mio. Die CET1-Ratio lag bei 17,4%. 5.0 .100 Addiko hat den Markt für die angekündigte Kapitaloptimierung getestet, bisher aber keine Tier 2 Emission begeben. Die Bank w ird somit w eiterhin .0 .00 an einem Tier-2-Instrument arbeiten. Es gab jedoch keine w esentlichen Umsatz (Mio.) Addiko Bank ATX neuen Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich des erhöhten Kapitalerfordernisses für 2020, das im Zuge der jährlichen Bankenprüfung SREP vorgeschrieben Performance 12M 6M 1M YTD w urde. Bekräftigt w urde jedoch die Absicht eine Dividende (für 2019) in -11.3% -0.4% 1.0% Höhe des Konzerngew inns zu zahlen. 4 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) Agrana Halten, Kursziel EUR 19.5 Schlusskurs vom 24.01.2020 18.92 Konsensusempfehlungen Analyst(in) Vladimira Urbankova Marktkapitalisierung (EUR Mio.) 1,182.3 Kaufen 1 Datum der letzten Analyse 17.04.2019 Streubesitz (%) 18.9 Halten 1 Ex Dividenden Tag 08.07.2020 ISIN AT000AGRANA3 Verkaufen 0 Finanzkalender (Y) 07.05.2020 Unternehmen Konsensus, EUR 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Agrana veredelt eine Vielzahl landw irtschaftlicher Rohstoffen zu Umsatz (Mio.) 2,443 industriellen Produkten. Das Unternehmen beliefert in den drei Segmenten EBITDA (Mio.) 2.39 Zucker, Stärke und Frucht lokale Produzenten sow ie internationale EBIT (Mio.) 66.6 Konzerne speziell der w eiterverarbeitenden Nahrungsmittelindustrie. Nettoergebnis (Mio.) 25.4 Gew inn/Aktie 0.41 Empfehlung Dividende/Aktie 1.00 Unsere aktuelle Empfehlung lautet Halten.
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