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Power Supply Procurement Plan

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Power Supply Procurement Plan POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN BUKIDNON SECOND ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC. POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN In compliance with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Department Circular No. DC 2018-02-0003, “Adopting and Prescribing the Policy for the Competitive Selection Process in the Procurement by the Distribution Utilities of Power Supply Agreement for the Captive Market” or the Competitive Selection process (CSP) Policy, the Power Supply Procurement Plan (PSPP) Report is hereby created, pursuant to the Section 4 of the said Circular. The PSPP refers to the DUs’ plan for the acquisition of a variety of demand-side and supply-side resources to cost-effectively meet the electricity needs of its customers. The PSPP is an integral part of the Distribution Utilities’ Distribution Development Plan (DDP) and must be submitted to the Department of Energy with supported Board Resolution and/or notarized Secretary’s Certificate. The Third-Party Bids and Awards Committee (TPBAC), Joint TPBAC or Third Party Auctioneer (TPA) shall submit to the DOE and in the case of Electric Cooperatives (ECs), through the National Electrification Administration (NEA) the following: a. Power Supply Procurement Plan; b. Distribution Impact Study/ Load Flow Analysis conducted that served as the basis of the Terms of Reference; and c. Due diligence report of the existing generation plant All Distribution Utilities’ shall follow and submit the attached report to the Department of Energy for posting on the DOE CSP Portal. For ECs such reports shall be submitted to DOE and NEA. The NEA shall review the submitted report within ten (10) working days upon receipt prior to its submission to DOE for posting at the DOE CSP Portal. The content of the PSSP shall be consistent with the DDP. The tables and graph format to be use on the PSPP report is provided on the following sheets. Further, the PSPP shall contain the following sections: I. Table of Contents II. Introduction III. Energy and Demand Forecast (10 year historical and forecast) IV. Energy Sales and Purchase V. Daily Load Profile and Load Duration Curve VI. Existing Contracts & Existing GenCos due diligence report VII. Currently approved SAGR for Off-Grid ECs to be passed-on to consumers; VIII. DU’s Current Supply and Demand IX. Distribution Impact Study X. Schedule of Power Supply Procurement XI. Timeline of the CSP For inquiries, you may send it at [email protected] or you may contact us through telephone numbers (02) 840-2173 and (02) 479-2900 local 202. POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN I. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Table of Contents II. Introduction 1 III. Energy Sales and Purchase 2 IV. EC's Current Demand and Supply 3 V. Daily Load Profile and Load Duration Curve 4 VI. Existing Contracts & Existing GenCos due diligence report 6 VII. Distribution Impact Study 7 VIII. Schedule of Power Supply Procurement 8 IX. Energy and Demand Forecast 13 POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN II. INTRODUCTION DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES PROFILE The Bukidnon Second Electric Cooperative, Inc. (BUSECO) has been formed in accordance with the provisions of PD 269 under the NEA, and was registered on July 28, 1977. BUSECO’s franchise was granted permanent on June 10, 1981. However, construction immediately followed after the registration. Operations started on February 2, 1970 when BUSECO took over Manolo Fortich Municipal Electrical System, even if the first energization was on June 29, 1979 yet. BUSECO is a non-stock, non-profit Electric Distribution Utility (EDU) registered with the National Electrification Administration (NEA) under PD 269 as amended on September 27, 1979. Its main office is located in Barangay Tankulan, Manolo Fortich, Bukidnon and has an area office in Casisang, Malaybalay City, Bukidnon. BUSECO serves the City of Malaybalay, Municipality of Manolo Fortich, Sumilao, Impasug-ong, Sumilao, Lantapan, Cabanglasan, Libona, Baungon, Malitbog and a portion of the Municipality of Talakag and the City of Valencia. Number of ACTUAL FORECAST Customer 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Residential 89,745 94,462 99,363 104,437 109,664 115,026 120,508 126,098 131,785 137,560 143,416 Commercial 4,802 5,054 5,317 5,588 5,868 6,155 6,448 6,747 7,051 7,360 7,674 Industrial 572 602 633 666 699 733 768 804 840 877 914 Others 2,596 2,732 2,874 3,021 3,172 3,327 3,486 3,648 3,812 3,979 4,149 Contestable Customers - served by RES - - - - - - - - - - Total (Captive Customers) 97,715 102,851 108,187 113,712 119,403 125,241 131,210 137,296 143,488 149,776 156,152 The increase of demand was mainly attributable to 2018 No. of Customers the entry of big loads. Residential Commercial Industrial Others POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN III. ENERGY SALES AND PURCHASE ENERGY SALES AND HISTORICAL PURCHASE 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Energy Sales (MWh) 88,712 92,616 104,575 109,772 118,505 124,365 135,034 144,306 161,617 174,332 Energy Purchase (MWh) 101,225 106,524 118,563 124,198 133,098 139,323 148,815 161,012 181,308 191,052 System Loss (MWh) 12,513 13,908 13,988 14,426 14,593 14,958 13,781 16,706 19,691 16,720 ENERGY SALES AND FORECAST PURCHASE 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Energy Sales (MWh) 229,806 274,855 295,918 316,287 335,956 356,209 375,804 396,037 416,256 436,874 Energy Purchase (MWh) 247,154 293,594 316,466 339,034 361,265 384,413 407,211 430,930 454,898 479,508 System Loss (MWh) 17,348 18,739 20,548 22,748 25,309 28,204 31,407 34,893 38,642 42,634 Energy Purchase vs Energy Sales Energy, MWHEnergy, 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 FORECAST YEARS Energy Sales (MWh) Energy Purchase (MWh) System Loss (MWh) Based on the 10 year forecasted data, it can be inferred that there will be an average increase of 10% in energy sales and energy purchase. Meanwhile, the system loss from 2009 of 12% and is projected to decrease to 8.34% in 2019. POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN IV. EC’s CURRENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND HISTORICAL Demand 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Coincident Peak 19.47 21.45 24.61 24.10 25.86 27.83 28.47 29.70 33.09 33.62 Demand (MW) Off Peak Demand 11.82 13.10 15.06 15.98 17.91 19.28 18.87 19.55 19.38 23.29 (MW) FORECAST Demand 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Coincident Peak 40.76 49.35 53.92 58.27 62.45 66.82 71.19 75.76 80.40 85.15 Demand (MW) Off Peak Demand 28.23 34.19 37.35 40.36 43.26 46.29 49.31 52.48 55.69 58.98 (MW) Coincident Peak Demand vs Off-peak Demand 85.15 80.40 75.76 71.19 66.82 62.45 58.98 58.27 55.69 53.92 52.48 49.35 49.31 46.29 MW 43.26 40.76 40.36 37.35 34.19 28.23 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HISTORICAL Years Coincident Peak Demand (MW) Off Peak Demand (MW) BUSECO's growth rate in terms of demand for the past 10 years is at 6.15%. It is then forecasted that for the next 10 (ten) years, BUSECO's demand will have an increase of 4.61%. The forecasting methodology used is Minitab: Winter's Method, additive: time series. 15 MW is its baseloaddemand at while 25 MW. As reflected inthe2017 Load Profile Load Durationand is Curve,peak estimated BUSECO's demand at 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 5000 5000 Axis Title 0 0 1 1 238 304 ANDDURATIONCURVE LOAD PROFILE LOAD V. DAILY 475 607 712 910 949 1213 1186 1423 1516 1660 1819 1897 2122 2134 (MW) Curve Load BUSECO 2018 2425 POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN 2371 2728 Curve(MW) Duration Load 2608 3031 2845 3334 3082 3637 3319 3940 3556 4243 3793 4030 4546 4267 4849 4504 5152 4741 5455 4978 5758 5215 6061 5452 6364 5689 6667 5926 6970 6163 7273 6400 6637 7576 6874 7879 7111 8182 7348 8485 7585 7822 8059 (MW) Demand Coincident 8296 8533 POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN VI. EXISTING CONTRACTS & EXISTING GENCOS DUE DILIGENCE REPORT MIX SUPPLY VS DEMAND AND THE OPTIMAL SUPPLY ACTUAL FORECAST Supply Demand 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Demand, MW 32.32 34.09 36.96 40.07 43.41 46.94 50.64 54.50 58.49 62.62 66.86 Spot Load, MW 6.67 12.39 13.85 14.86 15.51 16.18 16.69 17.27 17.78 18.29 Total Demand, MW 32.32 40.76 49.35 53.92 58.27 62.45 66.82 71.19 75.76 80.40 85.15 Supply Contracted, MW 39.38 39.59 29.36 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 NPC/PSALM 14.16 4.37 4.36 Gerphil Renewable Energy, Inc. 0.22 0.22 Therma South Inc. 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 FDC MISAMIS (Phividec Coal) 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Therma Marine Inc.
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