Aggreko’S Current Hold Valuation As a Moderately Assign I Share, Recommendation Per to Aggreko
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Equity Research Aggreko Plc Industrials | European Business Services A Case To Continue Holding the Market Leader 08 February 2021 in Temporary Power Solutions Stock Rating Hold Even after the takeover offer re-pricing, I believe Aggreko’s Industry View valuation does not reflect the full extent of growth Positive opportunities in a recovery environment Price Target GBp 964 Under-appreciated positioning amid the energy transition: The acceleration of various themes, such as de-carbonisation, has the potential to magnify dislocations in certain regions and sectors. Providing scope for above-market rates of growth as temporary power providers are engaged to act as a bridging mechanism for Price (as of 08/02/2021) GBp 851 economies and sectors transitioning away from their legacy power infrastructure. Additionally, though unpredictable, I like the added kicker of large one-off events Potential Upside/Downside +13.2% and believe Aggreko’s scale continues to act as an economic moat for these types of Tickers AGK.LN / AGGK.L contracts. Forecasts: Following management’s Nov-20 strategic update, I forecast a recovery in underlying performance to take place in 2021. This is of course predicated on a Enterprise Value (mGBP) 2,679 gradual easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions throughout 2021, which is subject Market Cap (mGBP) 2,180 to the effectiveness of global vaccination roll-outs and government lockdown policies. Shares Outstanding (m) 256 My base case estimates a 8.2% growth in underlying revenue, net of pass-through fuel, for 2021 and further acceleration in 2022 as economic conditions continue Free Float (%) 99% normalise, specifically the events business. My top-line forecasts are in the mid-point 100D Avg Daily Volume 484,998 of management’s medium-term guidance, with a CAGR of 8% between 2020-2025. Dividend Yield 0.59% I also assume a reversion in margins to the high-teens to take place between the forecast period. 2020E EPS (Adj, GBp) 25 Key valuation metrics: Current BVPs (GBp) 467 Source: Bloomberg, 08/02/2021 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E EPS (adj) 49 51 25 43 62 Price Performance Exchange-LSE Consensus EPS N/A N/A 22 45 44 52 Week Range GBp 286-888 Price 732.6 832.6 851.0 851.0 851.0 P/E 14.9 16.5 34.1 19.8 13.6 2,000 EV/EBITDA 4.8 4.4 6.3 5.5 4.7 1,800 1,600 EV/EBIT 11.2 9.6 20.2 13.4 9.7 1,400 Source: Analyst estimates and Bloomberg consensus estimates as of 08/02/2021 1,200 1,000 Key near-term drivers: As already mentioned above, the trajectory relating to the 800 re-opening of economies in 2021/22 is a critical factor underpinning my forecasts. 600 GBp (pence) per share (pence)GBp Tied to this is the stabilisation and subsequent gradual recovery in both the oil & gas 400 and events sectors. Another critical element relates to executional risks stemming 200 from changing customer demand profiles amid the energy transition. I find no red 0 flags that would suggest material risks relating to fleet development and/or M&A. Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17 Dec/18 Dec/19 Dec/20 Source: Bloomberg, 08/02/2021 Takeover offer: Following the announcement of a potential takeover, on February 5th, from a consortium led by TDR capital and the subsequent jump in share price. I acknowledge that near-term pricing is largely contingent on developments in talks with the consortium. That said, I feel that should the board reject the offer, it would Contacts: re-affirm their belief in management’s presented strategy, in-turn supporting the recovery thesis that underpins my forecasts and valuation. Hence, on the premise Victor Pancic that the takeover offer is credible, I do not see a need to sell and take advantage of [email protected] the takeover offer. Conclusion: Following the takeover offer re-pricing and near-term economic Completed 08/02/2021 - THIS DOCUMENT IS SOLELY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES uncertainties stemming from the pandemic, Aggreko’s valuation, in my opinion, does still not appear stretched. Nor does it appear to be pricing in the prospect of a synchronised recovery and associated growth opportunities. However, given that investors could be subject to short-term volatility from these takeover talks, with a ceiling around the indicative offer price of 880 pence per share, I assign a hold recommendation to Aggreko. That said, for investors looking over the longer-term, in the event of no takeover, I continue to view Aggreko’s current valuation as moderately attractive in a recovery environment. Equity Research | Aggreko Plc Contents Executive Summary 3 Aggreko — Company Profile 4 Management 11 Temporary Power Market Overview 17 Aggreko — Revenue 26 Aggreko — Margins 32 Aggreko — Cash Flow 37 Aggreko — Balance Sheet 44 Trading Update 46 Valuation 47 Financials 54 Important Information 58 Completed 08/02/2021 - THIS DOCUMENT IS SOLELY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES 08 February 2021 2 Equity Research | Aggreko Plc Executive Summary While Aggreko’s valuation has re-priced significantly following the takeover offer (announced 05/02/21) and certainly looks expensive relative to historical norms on a pandemic-hit earnings denominator. I believe a number of visible factors suggest the opposite is true and that Aggreko is actually quite reasonably priced. In fact, in my view, valuations still appear moderately attractive in recovery scenario. 1) Enduring structural growth in the temporary power market: Structural growth in temporary power is supported by the global growth in energy demands from urbanisation and digitisation of trends. Prominent opportunities exist in regions with less developed power infrastructure, such as Africa, where energy consumption per capita is still well below that of developed regions. In developed markets, the increased fragmentation of power infrastructure, as renewable energy sources are integrated into national power grids, supports demand for modular yet reliable back-up power solutions. Furthermore, the acceleration of climate change objectives creates an opportunity to act as a bridging mechanism to customers as they transition over to lower carbon emitting power infrastructure. In my view, the energy transition exacerbates the future opportunity for temporary power in developing markets due to the fact that de-carbonisation will not be binary and developing markets are generally more reliant on fossil fuel infrastructure. 2) Aggreko’s post-pandemic recovery and subsequent growth opportunity is underestimated, in my view: Following the takeover offer re-pricing and economic uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of the pandemic, Aggreko’s valuation, in my opinion, does still not appear stretched. Nor does it appear to be fully pricing in the prospect of a synchronised recovery and associated growth opportunities. This is supported by my upside/downside scenarios that suggest a slight asymmetry to the upside, from current levels, which I feel is justified from Aggreko’s operational leverage and pandemic-induced streamlining initiatives. 3) Aggreko is a market leader: I believe that Aggreko has structural advantages from being a market leader with global scale. The company’s strong track-record of executing on complex power solutions ties in well with the increasing prominence of data-centres, which require an array of solutions ranging from secure power solutions to temperature control and load testing. Data centres are expected consume up around one fifth of global energy by 2040 according to the IMF, up from around 3% in 2017 as estimated by a Centrica report. As the temporary power market evolves, I believe that a solid track-record in deploying complex hybrid and renewable technologies at scale will play a vital role in gaining customer acceptance. Especially when you consider that security of supply is a key pillar of the temporary power business . It is my view that as a market leader, Aggreko is better positioned than smaller, local peers when it comes to gaining traction in newer, relatively un-proven technologies. 4) Strong management: As customer demand profiles evolve with the energy transition, temporary power providers face execution risk with regards to their fleet development, M&A and R&D spending. I believe in management’s strategic vision for the company and following the successful acquisition and integration of Younicos into the fleet, I feel comfortable with management’s ability to execute in order to reach their medium-term goals. Completed 08/02/2021 - THIS DOCUMENT IS SOLELY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES 08 February 2021 3 Equity Research | Aggreko Plc Aggreko — Company Profile Background In 1962 Aggreko was founded by Luc Koopmans in the Netherlands, with energy from the first diesel generators being used to provide heat for greenhouse crops. A timely expansion was made into the UK amid the 1973 oil crisis. In the 1970s, close to 50% of the UK’s total energy consumption was reliant on coal as a fuel source. Although the UK remained relatively unscathed from oil embargoes, imposed by oil- producing Arabic nations targeting countries perceived to be supporting the Yom- Kippur War. Coal miner strikes across the UK, driven by the government’s reluctance to meet workers wage demands on the back of food inflation pressures, led to severe disruptions in the UK’s energy supply and resulted in the infamous implementation of the ‘three-day-week’. Ultimately ending in the fall of the conservative party in 1974. After gaining traction in the UK and expanding operations, notably supporting North Sea oil operations in Norway, Aggreko relocated its headquarters to Glasgow in 1974 where it remains today. Aggreko was subsequently acquired by the Salvesen Group in 1984 and entered the U.S. market in 1986 through the acquisition of Louisiana based Electric Rental Systems.