Defining Position for Efforts to Reduce Influence of Money in Politics New

Date: May 2, 2014 To: Friends of Democracy Corps, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and Public Campaign Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner David Donnelly, Public Campaign Action Fund Defining position for efforts to reduce influence of money in politics New battleground survey shows strong and sustainable support for proposals to reduce influence of money in politics The most recent battleground survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Public Campaign Action Fund fielded just one week after the Supreme Court handed down its decision in McCutcheon v. FEC. This survey of the 50 most competitive Republican districts and 36 most competitive Democratic districts finds that voters from both parties and all demographic groups are angered by the influence of big money and remain strongly supportive of efforts to reduce the influence of money in politics.1 Across the battleground, voters are deeply discouraged with the direction of the country. Just a quarter (25 percent) say the country is headed in the right direction; two thirds (67 percent) say we are off on the wrong track. Voters in both Democratic and Republican districts give their incumbents low job approval ratings and they give even lower ratings for the parties in Congress. This context shapes voters’ serious support for efforts to reform the influence of money in politics—even when they are exposed to negative information about reform proposals. Incumbents from both parties would do well to champion bold reforms like those laid out in this survey as part of a campaign against the status quo in Washington. These are vulnerable incumbents in the most unpopular of partisan institutions. Embracing reform and transparency offers them a way to campaign against Washington. 1 This memo is based on a survey of 1,250 likely 2014 voters in the most competitive Congressional seats across the country, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Public Campaign Action Fund. This survey includes 750 interviews conducted in 50 Republican-held districts and 500 interviews conducted in the 36 most competitive Democratic-held districts. This survey was conducted from April 10-16, 2014 using a list of 2006 voters, 2010 voters, and new registrants. Some questions were asked only in Democratic-held or Repub- lican-held seats. For questions asked of all respondents, the margin of error = +/- 2.77% at 95% confidence. For questions asked just in Republican districts, the margin of error = +/- 3.58% at 95% confidence. For questions asked in just Democratic districts, the margin of error = +/- 4.38% at 95% confidence. Government by the people Democracy Corps This is particularly true for Democratic incumbents, who need greater support and involvement from their base voters in the Rising American Electorate of unmarried women, young people, and minorities. These voters are not only reporting low turnout numbers but are also not deliver- ing votes for Democrats on the scale Democrats will need. These voters, however, are strongly supportive of efforts to reduce the influence of money in politics and could be energized by a strong reform agenda. Key Findings: • This is an intensely anti-Washington period. Voters’ optimism about the country direction and about their leaders in Washington remains low, with deep negativity toward both parties in Congress. • Incumbent approval, in both Democratic and Republican seats, is low and relatively stagnant. Incumbents from both parties have seen a modest improvement in their approval ratings since the nadir of the October shutdown, but these ratings are almost exact- ly the same as they were in June. • Voters in both Democratic and Republican-held seats strongly embrace efforts to reduce money in politics and its influence: two thirds of voters in these districts support a plan to overhaul campaign spending by getting rid of big donations and allowing only small donations matched by public funds. Voters of all parties and across all districts support this plan with real intensity—even when it is indicated that donations would be matched by taxpayer funds. • Government by the People Act wins broad and strong support. Voters in both Dem- ocratic and Republican-held seats, including strong majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans support this bill and do so with real intensity. There is particularly intense support for the bill among the Rising American Electorate of young people, unmarried women, and minorities. • Even after the strongest attacks, this survey finds no increase in opposition to the proposal. After hearing information both for and against the bill, strong majorities in both Democratic and Republican districts continue to support the bill, with no increase in opposition. This survey identifies the best messages to support the bill, which advocate for putting government back in the hands of ordinary Americans and strengthening the economy by making Congress work for all Americans again. • In these vulnerable Congressional districts—districts that could decide the balance in Congress next November and where the most money is apt to be spent— candidates from both parties could capitalize on the current anger and frustration by making reform central to their platforms. 2 Government by the people Democracy Corps Intensely grim and anti-Washington mood This survey highlights continued negativity about the direction of the country and leadership in Washington. In both Democratic and Republican districts, two thirds (67 percent) now say the country is off on the wrong track. Just a quarter (26 percent in Republican districts, 24 percent in Democratic-held seats) now say the country is headed in the right direction. Across all battleground districts (Democratic and Republican), incumbent approval remains low and unchanged since last June, meaning that this election year is characterized by an anti- incumbent, anti-Washington mood that is both strong and enduring. While the Republican brand remains very negative, incumbents in both Democratic and Republican districts have low approval ratings. 3 Government by the people Democracy Corps Battleground voters strongly support efforts to reduce the influence of money Amid the intense negativity toward Washington, incumbents and challengers from either party would do well to run against the current system of money in politics. Voters in these districts strongly support bold reforms to reduce the influence of money in politics, even when that plan includes taxpayer dollars. Across the battleground, a strong majority supports a plan to overhaul campaign spending by getting rid of big donations and allowing only small donations to candidates, matched by public funds, and support is nearly equal in both Democratic and Republican seats. Importantly, support remains strong even when “public funds” is replaced with “taxpayer funds.” Indeed, in Democratic districts, support actually increases when voters are asked to respond to “A plan to overhaul campaign spending by getting rid of big donations and allowing only small donations to candidates, matched by taxpayer funds.” 4 Government by the people Democracy Corps McCutcheon decision very unpopular This survey fielded one week after the Court handed down its decision in McCutcheon v. FEC. The Court’s decision, described below without intentional bias, is deeply unpopular among voters across all districts and parties. Now let me read you some information. Last week, the Supreme Court decided that donors would no longer be limited in how much they can give total in an election to candidates and political parties. Before the ruling, individuals were limited to roughly 120 thousand dollars in contributions to all candidates for federal office and to political parties. Now there are no overall limits on how much one can give. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this Supreme Court ruling? In Republican districts, 70 percent say they oppose this ruling, more than half (56 percent) strongly. In Democratic districts, three quarters (74 percent) oppose this ruling, and a striking 62 percent oppose it strongly. Opposition cuts across party lines, but with Democrats and independents more strongly opposed than Republicans. 5 Government by the people Democracy Corps Government by the People Act In this survey, we measured favorability toward the Government by the People Act, described in a neutral way, and then simulated a campaign around the Act. This test was meant to measure three things: first, which messages were strongest in which district types and among which voters, second, which attacks made support most vulnerable, and finally, if support for the Act could endure, even after issuing the strongest attacks against it. As a result of these tests, we have sev- eral recommendations below. First, voters across districts and party lines strongly support the bill, described in this way: This new law changes the way campaigns are financed. Under this law, candidates could run for Congress without needing to raise large campaign contributions. Instead, they would col- lect a large number of small contributions up to 150 dollars from individuals in their home states, and these contributions would be matched on a six-to-one basis by a public fund set aside for this purpose. Anyone making a small donation would get a refundable tax credit of twenty-five dollars. Each candidate's public funding would be strictly capped at a certain amount, and there would be strong enforcement of campaign finance laws including disclo- sure of all donations. 6 Government by the people Democracy Corps Across the battleground, 70 percent support this proposal, 44 percent strongly, with just a quarter (24 percent) opposed. In Democratic districts, 71 percent support this proposal, 45 percent strongly, and in Republican districts 69 percent support it, 43 percent strongly. This includes strong majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans, with Democrats and independents more intensely supportive and more supportive overall.

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