10 April 2016 Sunday Independent POLITICS 19 The inside story of ’s desperate fight for place in ryhisto

HE former The went into TD, Denis Naught- his fateful meeting with en, of the so-called Rural Independ- Micheal Martin and set Tents, sat down to lunch with Enda Kenny last off an unexploded bomb, Thursday March 31: “Look,” writes Jody Corcoran said Naughten, “when you’re talking to Micheal Martin you might suggest a Fine Gael, were included, Fine Gael was with Fine Gael in opposition. Independents, Fianna Fail hopeful of the backing of Sean Fianna Fail had, and con- partnership government.” Canney and Kevin ‘Boxer’ Mo- tinues to have four of the five As a central figure in the ran, although neither of these Rural Independents — Noel painstaking negotiations be- men are over the line at that or Grealish, Mattie McGrath, tween the two Civil War po- this stage, far from it, indeed; Dr Michael Harty and Michael litical parties and an array of and even if one or other did Collins, and probably the fifth, Independents, Naughten had commit, Fine Gael would still , if push came gathered from his contacts be one or two short — and that to shove; it also believes it that such a ‘partnership’ ar- was before the Healy-Raes took could turn Canney and ‘Boxer’ rangement might be a runner. their deeply personal decision. from Fine Gael, to add to Fini- So this was the moment, After lunch with Naughten, an McGrath and of then, on the last day in March, the acting Taoiseach reached the Independent Alliance. In over lunch in the Dail with an out to another experienced short, Fianna Fail believes it erstwhile colleague, that the Rural Independent, Noel Gre- could put together just about putative deal — what Fine alish, who is on friendly terms enough to form a Fianna Fail- Gael would subsequently pres- with Kenny’s close associate, led . As ent to the public as an “histor- events would transpire, the ic opportunity” — first began two Healy-Raes are now also to crystallise in the feverish ‘It would turn likely to follow. mind of the acting Taoiseach. Throughout the entire Until then, he had been out that the process, however, the Inde- uncertain which way to turn, pendents have remained cau- in effect, to save his own blood, bones tious to both parties and they political career and emerge remain so: while they were triumphantly as an historic and the deep always aware Fianna Fail was figure in his own right — the willing to support a Fine Gael- first Fine Gael leader ever run of the Civil led minority government, albe- to be re-elected Taoiseach War meant it tacitly — the Independents in successive governments, are unsure for how long and which he may yet do. Michael Healy- in what circumstances — no At that point, March 31, such reciprocal commitment Fine Gael had secured the Rae just could was forthcoming from Enda support of just four of the Kenny, despite repeated con- eight Independents it needed not go there’ firmation requests by them to NEGOTIATIONS: The rural Independent deputies, from left, , Mattie McGrath, Denis Naughten, Dr Michael Harty and Michael Collins arriving at to assure the relative stability him behind closed doors. Government Buildings for talks with the acting Taoiseach Enda Kenny TD and Fine Gael negotiators on the formation of a new government. PHOTO: Tom Burke of a Fine Gael-led minority But the acting Taoiseach government. Senator Paddy Bourke from was and remains in no form space’ either then or now was of the Fianna and received, a copy of that Saturday was aware of the with Enda Kenny around; fur- The four were Michael Mayo. Grealish confirmed to facilitate the creation of a he willing to create. Fail negotiation team and, poll, and background data, on ‘grand partnership’ plan, but thermore, the Independents Lowry, Denis Naughten, and to Kenny that it was also his ‘safe space’ for the Independ- For him to do so would separately, Mattie McGrath Wednesday, the day of the Dail was firmly of the view that are left with what was also Michael Fitzmaurice, all of opinion Fianna Fail might ents, to ease their anxiety that be to risk the almost certain and Michael McGrath, also of vote, and before Enda Kenny “Fianna Fail won’t go for it”, presented as the only show in whom have an association be open to this putative Fine whichever party may lead flight of the majority of Inde- the Fianna Fail team. and Micheal Martin met. and also of the belief that it town, a Fine Gael-led minority with Fine Gael to varying Gael, Independents, Fianna such a minority government, pendents to Fianna Fail, prob- That night, both Cowen However, the Sunday Inde- was a possible ruse to woo government — either that, degrees, Fitzmaurice through Fail arrangement. that the other, in opposition, ably enough for that party to and Michael McGrath inti- pendent had released details even more Independents to or an election none of them the former Fine Gael TD for The following night, would give the administration lead a minority government, a mated to these Independents of the poll to both Fianna Fail the Fianna Fail side. Whatever want, which only a few would his Roscommon constituency, however — that is, on Friday a fair wind. result that would immediately that, well, yes, maybe Fianna and Fine Gael negotiators last Fianna Fail’s motivations enter with confidence. John Connor. The fourth was week last April 1, Fianna Fail The alternative would be bring about the end of Enda Fail might be open to such a Saturday evening, shortly then, the prospect of the party As presented, Fianna Fail Michael Healy-Rae, who at would stick a spanner in that the collapse of such a gov- Kenny’s political career. deal, but that the head of Enda before publication. Micheal going for such a deal now are has been outmanoeuvred by that stage was odds-on to be particular works. ernment after six months, or At that stage, last Wednes- Kenny would be the price. Martin came on the telephone slim to none. Enda Kenny, the master of not the new Minister for Rural But on the Thursday, the less, or more, exposing the day, Kenny had full reason to This can be interpreted almost immediately to state That awareness in Fine senior, but ground hurling and Affairs in a Fine Gael-led upshot was that the acting Independents to the possible believe Fianna Fail had him in two ways: Fianna Fail was that Fianna Fail was “up for Gael did not stop Enda Kenny with hard pulling at that; but minority government; but as Taoiseach had two irons in the retribution of an electorate in its sights anyway; not to telling Kenny ‘over your dead it”, that is, for the first time he walking into his fateful this weekend, Fianna Fail is it would turn out, blood, bones fire — a Fine Gael-led minority prepared to strike out at every mention the lion’s share of body’ would the party do a dispelled the notion that the meeting with Micheal Martin still talking to those majority and the deep run of the Civil government, or the grand opportunity. his own parliamentary party deal — in other words, not a party was not really interested on Wednesday with a stick of of Independents minded to War meant he just could not ‘partnership’ arrangement In fact, Enda Kenny had which has now allowed Kenny chance; or, well, yes maybe unexploded dynamite in his back Micheal Martin, and go there in the end. with Independents as a buffer gone out of his way to state seven weeks, and two, possibly such a deal could be reached, hand: he offered Martin the Fine Gael is assessing how In a moment of high between the two main parties. that Fine Gael would not three attempts by Thursday, to but that Enda Kenny would ‘Fianna Fail ‘grand partnership’ deal, even much longer it can allow drama, the lesser known of the He was certain of neither; support a Fianna Fail-led form the government he had have to go, otherwise it would though he knew Fianna Fail Enda Kenny remain leader — two brothers would exert the in fact, both looked like minority government, a asked of them for time and never wash with the Fianna was telling would not accept it, and would which is not much longer after influence of an older sibling: coming up short to put him “threat” subsequently publicly space to do. Fail grassroots. most certainly not accept with this Thursday if there is no Jackie Healy-Rae would turn over the line, and with that confirmed by The acting Taoiseach Into this heady mix came a Kenny “over Kenny still in situ. breakthrough. Hence the in his grave, or words to that the ever-decreasing certainty and on the formed his reason to so sus- Sunday Independent/Mill- Then Kenny let off his current flurry of activity. effect were uttered by Danny of his continued leadership national airwaves. pect the motivations of Fi- ward Brown opinion poll your dead bomb: it was a ‘grand part- The President, Michael D Healy-Rae, and over the dead of Fine Gael would weaken Indeed, last Wednesday, as anna Fail after he had set last weekend which nership’ or nothing; minority Higgins, meanwhile, is sit- bodies of all that went before further, and with it his place he concluded his final meet- about exploring the Fine heaped even more body” would governments would not work ting by the telephone in Aras them, would a Healy-Rae from in history. ing with the Independents Gael, Independents, Fi- pressure on Enda Ken- and was off the table — boom! an Uachtarain, in keen an- Kerry ever vote for a Fine Gael The truth is, Enda Kenny before the second Dail vote, anna Fail ‘grand partner- ny: the poll showed they do a deal’ In one blast he exploded all ticipation of having his say. Taoiseach. has been living on borrow time and before his fateful meeting ship’ option laid out to the public did not before him, the ‘safe space’ Constitutional lawyers have An emotional Michael from election day itself, from with Micheal Martin, the Inde- him by Denis Naughten want him as Taoise- craved by the Independents also been drafted it. This is far Healy-Rae would last week tell the moment the results began pendent TD, Mattie McGrath, at that lunch on ach, preferred a Fianna in going in to government. and the new form of minority from over. Another election his Independent colleagues to tumble in, the outcome of who Kenny knew to be on Thursday, Fail-led minority Later last Saturday, this government extolled by seems more likely now than that he could not support which was that the man who the side of Fianna Fail, again March 31. government newspaper then received from Micheal Martin on the floor before Wednesday last, but is Enda Kenny, and with that — had won 113 votes to be elected asked the acting Taoiseach for The next and that several independent sources of the Dail a few hours earlier. still not inevitable. There are puff — the position of Minister Taoiseach five years ago could a ‘safe space’ commitment, day, April 1, Fine Gael details of the proposed Fine It was a stunt: Fianna Fail several twists and turns left for Rural Affairs in a Fine only be certain of 50 votes five but it was not forthcoming. follow-up might lose Gael, Independent, Fianna has been presented in the me- in this yet. Watch this space. Gael-led minority government years later. By any yardstick, Instead, Kenny challenged conver- further seats Fail ‘grand partnership’ pro- dia (and damned by commen- would vanish back into the it was a resounding defeat, the Independents, in effect, sations in the event posal, but with the Fianna Fail tators) for turning down an DON’T MISS thin air from whence it came. other than the yardstick that to make up their minds as to took place of another condition attached: “Kenny “historic opportunity” which, It was scarcely noted last he clung to: Fine Gael still whether they were up to it, between election. must go.” as our poll showed, only 22pc Ruth Dudley Wednesday, the day of the sec- had more seats than anybody ready, willing, or able to sup- Noel Fine Gael At that stage, the Fine Gael of the electorate want anyway, Edward on deluded ond vote for Taoiseach that the else, and that was a mandate port a Fine Gael-led minority Grealish formally negotiator to whom we had and which Fianna Fail did not Sinn Fein PAGE 32 Healy-Raes did not abstain, he could stand on. government — but no ‘safe and requested, also released the poll data on want at all, and certainly not but voted against Enda Kenny On RTE News on election for Taoiseach: the brothers night Kenny spoke solemnly of would subsequently hitch his responsibility, his consti- their wagon to the Rural Inde- tutional duty no less, to try to pendents, who in comfortable form a government, but from majority more support Fianna the look in his eyes, his body Fail than Fine Gael. language alone, seasoned ob- But on Thursday, March 31, servers began to conclude, as Fine Gael tried to put to- wrongly as it turned out, that gether the eight Independents he would make such an effort it needed, the belief was that and then resign as leader of the newly elected Independent Fine Gael and ultimately as TD would Taoiseach. follow those other Independ- The opposite happened. ents most minded to vote Driven by his own sense of for Enda Kenny, particular- destiny, his place in history ly if Fine Gael gave certain to be assured, Kenny quickly commitments in relation to a pressed Paddy Bourke into referendum to repeal the 8th action, pitching directly to Amendment, which Kenny the heart and soul of all TDs, was prepared to do. The pro- with the offer of high office — life acting Taoiseach saw such Cabinet positions, Ministers of a commitment as an opportu- State, committee nity, or mechanism to possibly chairmanships. re-engage the to It was enough to buy him support the minority govern- time, and to turn their heads, ment he was so desperately most notably of Naughten, trying to put together. Fitzmaurice and Michael Whether Labour would Healy-Rae, who in subsequent bite, or not — that party has negotiations with Micheal its own issues at the moment Martin would have an adviser — Fine Gael’s negotiators, directly ask the Fianna Fail regardless, still had to put leader whether there would together the eight Independ- be “ministries going” as were ents needed, at a minimum, on offer from Fine Gael. to form a minority adminis- On Thursday, March 31, as tration, but no matter what Fine Gael was totting up its way they looked at it they were head count hoping to reach coming up short. the magic number of eight With 157 available votes in Independents, Fianna Fail was the Dail, excluding the Ceann also filling in its own ledger. Comhairle, a minimum of 58 The party needed not to in support of Kenny’s nomi- reach 58, but 54, eleven Inde- nation would be required to pendents, enough to secure demonstrate that he could the tentative viability of a become Taoiseach again if Fianna Fail-led minority gov- Fianna Fail abstained. ernment in the expectation To the four, or possibly that a reciprocal abstention five Independents if Zappone arrangement could be reached 22 ANALYSIS Sunday Independent 16 August 2015 FF to dodge FG coalition bullet with ‘supply and confidence’ trick

HE non co-opera- A decade of instability, tive game theory at play between Enda minority governments and Kenny and Micheal repeated elections has TMartin this summer took a decisive turn with the dawned — and that’s a good forced announcement by the thing, says Jody Corcoran Fine Gael leader that he will step down some time in his second term should he be on the making and breaking poused by Ireland, re-elected Taoiseach. of governments in minority although neither is currently The speculation is that Mr legislatures in which no polit- showing to be in a position Kenny will resign 18 months ical party controls a majority to participate in such a new after the forthcoming election of seats. model of government here. to contest the then Presiden- Current opinion polls sug- Though occasionally in- tial Election, a development, gest the forthcoming election in my view, which could pre- will provide precisely such an cipitate another of possibly outcome. The four main blocs, ‘A supply and several more general elections Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn over the next decade or so. Fein and the less cohesive confidence We are about to enter — if Independents are fighting each other to a standstill. arrangement ‘The upshot According to the polls, only a combined Fine Gael and Fi- will enable may lead to anna Fail can form a majority Fine Gael government. what has been This summer has seen a re- to pass newed outbreak of intra-party called “far politics in both parties, as the much of its possibility of a grand coalition more dynamic comes into sharper focus. The agenda divergent positions on the models of issue within both parties are, and fill all in fact, as welcome as they are government inevitable. ministerial As somebody who first pre- formation”’ dicted a Fine Gael/Fianna Fail posts itself’ coalition based on opinion we are not already in — a polls three years ago, I think period of what is generally re- the time has come to nuance convenient, a supply and ferred to as “political instabil- that analysis as the election confidence arrangement will ity”; but that is not necessarily nears. enable Fine Gael to pass much NEW MODEL: If a supply and confidence agreement did not last the full lifetime of the parliament, that outcome would not unduly concern either Micheal something to be concerned At this remove from polling of its agenda and fill all min- Martin or Enda Kenny. Photo: Steve Humphreys about — in my view, rather, day, I now believe the most isterial posts itself without when properly approached, likely outcome will be a Fine having to make too many and other matters set out in a briefings by ministers and upon by leading younger to protect its flank against challenge the motivational it is a development to be em- Gael minority government concessions. formal document. officials on significant issues figures in both parties. Sinn Fein and in better shape assumptions about politicians braced. supported by Fianna Fail in a For its part, Fianna Fail The government agreed to and issues that were likely Whether a supply and con- to contest and perhaps even — that they are office-seeking It could be that the political slightly more formal arrange- will win support for some of consult with ACT, including to be politically sensitive be- fidence agreement between win an election in a mere two rather that policy-seeking. consequences of the econom- ment — short of formal coa- its favoured policies, in the on the broad outline of the fore any public announce- Fine Gael and Fianna Fail years when a new Fine Gael Another benefit is that ic collapse and subsequent lition — known as a “supply process diluting what Micheal legislative programme, key ment. would last the lifetime of full leader may, shall we say, be such a new model would open implementation of austerity and confidence” agreement. Martin has referred to as the legislative measures, major Neither Fine Gael nor Fian- parliament is a moot point, obliged to seek his or her own up real debate on policy with- measures will be far more Basically, it will work like “too right wing” policies of policy issues, broad budget na Fail will publicly commit however. mandate. in political parties here and positive and radical than pre- this: Fianna Fail commit to Fine Gael, while avoiding the parameters; and policy issues to such or a somewhat lesser In proper practice it should, Such realpolitik would take fundamental account of viously envisaged. support Fine Gael on crucial possible political taint that and legislative measures to arrangement at this stage for but in my view it would not at go against the true spirit of intra-party politics. The upshot may lead to votes in return for conces- may come from participation which ACT was likely to be understandable reasons — first or even second attempt, that more dynamic model Such benefits, and others, what has been called “far more sions on some elements of its in an unpopular coalition. particularly sensitive. specifically because both want an outcome which would not of government formation as have been the life-source of dynamic models of govern- manifesto. Such an arrangement was Other co-operation in- to maximise support before unduly concern either Micheal predicted by Michael Laver new political movements and ment formation” here within So Fianna Fail will not vote put in place in New Zealand cluded access to relevant the election. Martin or Enda Kenny, who almost two decades ago. parties here, such as the Inde- the broader context of party against a Budget (supply) or last year between ACT New ministers, regular meetings But I am given to under- would secure his place in But there is some evidence pendent Alliance and Renua, competition as a whole. against Fine Gael in a “no Zealand, which agreed to pro- between the equivalents of stand that there is an influ- history as the first successive to suggest that such an era is for example. Could it be that This possibility was first confidence” vote (confidence). vide for Enda Kenny and Micheal ential body of opinion within two-term Fine Gael Taoiseach, upon us, even if it takes a little both Fine Gael and Fianna suggested in 1998 in a review A form of the concept has the term of the Parliament to Martin, advance notification Fianna Fail which would se- by then possibly on his way to time to bed down. Fail will now steal the clothes by Michael Laver, professor been suggested by Shane Ross a National-led Government to the other party of signifi- riously consider such an the Aras. One of the great benefits, of this new politics for their of political science at Trinity of the Independent Alliance; in return for National’s agree- cant announcements by either arrangement over a more Fianna Fail, meanwhile, as referred to by Laver, is own mutual benefit? Stranger College , in a paper other benefits have been es- ment to a policy programme the government or ACT, and formal coalition speculated would be in a better position that such a new model would things have happened. Coalition with Kenny would spell the end for Fianna Fail

Both parties want to foster the illusion that they are the only two alternatives avail- able. They want to pretend that Ireland has become some bi- nary system with two equally repellent choices. Such a notion serves the Out of touch for interests of both parties — it offers each a political carve not wanting to up where they maintain their help re-elect Enda mutually assured existence. Never mind the fact that — I don’t think so, there is absolutely no basis to writes Willie O’Dea their nonsense. The polls over the past 18 months — coupled with the results of the last lo- E all have our faults, cal elections — show this, yet Wmyself included. I the spin doctors from both FG thought I was aware and SF persist. of most of mine until this The simple reality is that week when my parliamentary there are now three core po- colleague Michael McGrath litical blocs in this country informed me that I have two — Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and more: being arrogant and out Sinn Fein — all within a couple of touch. of percentage points of each Why? Because I will not other. contemplate the idea of going Behind these three blocs into government as Fine Gael’s you have the Independents, junior partner. who by their own definition When the election comes cannot be called a bloc, fol- around, Fine Gael candidates lowed by a declining Labour will have the burden of going WAR OF WORDS: Michael McGrath slated Willie O’Dea for Party, plus a range of new and to the doors saying: “Vote for not wanting to share power in next election with Fine Gael old political parties on the left me and I’ll make Enda Kenny and right getting two or three Taoiseach for another five RTE’s Prime Time in 2010: both today and tomorrow. per cent a piece. more years.” “The people are saying to us This is about thinking in As the election approaches, It is almost enough to make they don’t have confidence in the long term — not the short those balances will change as you feel sorry for them. Enda Kenny.” one. voters look to find clear and Only ‘almost’ though; as Many of the people I repre- The creation of a Fine Gael- unambiguous alternatives. Enda is a problem of their sent are hurting thanks to the led coalition with Fianna Fail The public will have major own making. It is just five right-wing policies of Kenny’s as the junior partner means choices to make and first of years since Fine Gael’s TDs government. They want rid of the end of Fianna Fail, as it these will be whether or not and senators came within a him, so I find it mind boggling then means the only alter- to return the government that whisker of dumping him. Not why anyone in Fianna Fail native alliance is a hard-left- has cut supports to the most only are the weaknesses and would think it wise for Fianna wing one. vulnerable, while creating an failings that brought them to Fail candidates to go to the That would likely leave Irish Water behemoth that that point still there, they are doors offering to prop him us with a decade or more of costs more to run than it more evident. up for five more years of this? uncertainty with alternating raises. Look at the intensity with There is nothing arrogant left/right governments, just How can you credibly make which he refuses to debate. or out of touch about clearly as the UK had in the 60s/70s. that choice if you believe the See how he falters and stum- rejecting the option of putting Each undoing the actions of only alternative to the current bles when answering for the a bad Taoiseach back in office its predecessor in a pointless failing government is one policies of his own govern- for five more years. tit-for-tat ideological spiral, to headed by and ment — this is the man who I have not the slightest stagnation. staffed by a rag tag of left-wing recently told the Greek people doubt that going into coalition The recent speculation leftovers? that he had not increased with Fine Gael as the junior about Fianna Fail and coali- This is the false choice VAT, despite the fact that Fine partner would herald the end tion is not merely the standard that Enda Kenny is pushing Gael-Labour increased VAT of Fianna Fail. silly-season stuff, there is a in order to save his own elec- to 23pc soon after it came to This is nothing to do with political agenda underpinning toral skin. power. civil war politics or with issues it — an agenda which, worry- But it is the wrong one This is also the man of of history — this is all to do ingly, is equally shared by Fine (and it won’t have my help in whom said on with the political realities of Gael and Sinn Fein. pushing it). ELECTION 2016

21 February 2016 www.independent.ie The General Election has just become Fianna Fail’s to win

Since the campaign began, PARTY SUPPORT: FIRST PREFERENCE Micheal Martin has had a surge in popularity as voters consider the next Taoiseach, writes Jody Corcoran Fine Gael 27

WO weeks ago, to the reason why I believe Fianna Fail 23 when we published this election has become Fi- the first opinion anna Fail’s to win. As this poll Tpoll of this election shows, the satisfaction rating Sinn Fein 19 by Millward Brown, of Micheal Martin tells us the I concluded that the election momentum is with Fianna Independent was still Fine Gael’s to lose, Fail. But here is why I believe candidates 13 but could become Fianna Fail’s the party could actually win to win. This weekend it has the election… become Fianna Fail’s to win. As I said two weeks ago, Labour 6 In December 2014, on the and have done repeatedly basis of another poll, I pre- before, our polls also ask Anti Austerity Alliance/ dicted, when it was neither voters which party they will fashionable nor profitable, definitely not vote for. This 5 that by default Micheal Mar- question is designed to assess tin could become the next where vote transfers will go. It Socail Democrats Taoiseach — and went so far is known as the “toxic” ques- 4 as to lay a €50 bet with Paddy tion. This poll is different, Power that he would. however, because it is a poll Whatever about being of registered voters only and 2 fashionable among the chat- also — and only — of voters tering classes, this weekend it who will “definitely” or “prob- Renua Ireland 2 seems that bet may yet turn ably” vote. The pollsters were out to be profitable and that told to ‘close and re-recruit’ in Brother Kevin of the Capu- all other circumstances. The Socialist Party 1 chin Day Centre will benefit. The “toxic” question finds The key to our latest poll is that 50pc of voters will not not contained in the headline vote for Sinn Fein, up 13pc Other parties — figures, significant and all since the less specific poll two as they are, but in the satis- weeks ago, and that 35pc will faction ratings of the party not vote for Fine Gael and leaders. Remember, voters are turning their minds to SATISFACTION LEVELS (Previous poll in brackets) electing a Taoiseach. ‘In the past, Since the last poll a fort- Enda Kenny Michéal Martin night ago, the dissatisfaction when voters rating of Enda Kenny has Dissatisfied increased by 6pc and that of wanted to by 7pc — telling 40% punish FF they 28% Satisfied 47% in itself — but the revelation, (27%) (27%) after two television debates 68% (48%) usually voted (62%) and his criss-cross of the 5% Don’t know country in the style of a real (11%) 12% election campaign, is the for Labour, (25%) soaring satisfaction rating of hence the odd Micheal Martin. With a week to go before surge like the the country decides who it numbers in this election, ir- from what are the realities would like to be Taoiseach, Spring Tide or respective of the “recovery”, of life for the vast majority of Martin’s satisfaction rating which is, in fact, the long and people is quite extraordinary. (40pc) is up 13 points, to a Gilmore Gale’ the short of the story of this Enda Kenny has been so badly level he has not had in his election — and if you don’t mishandled by his handlers; time as leader of Fianna Fail: believe me, ask Big Phil. The it is astonishing to witness, furthermore, 39pc of Fine only question that remains is and to consider that these Gael voters are satisfied with Labour — in other words, Fine the extent to which they will handlers, are supposed to be his leadership, as are 40pc of Gael is as toxic as Labour. return to Fianna Fail or stick the best political brains in the Labour voters. The fact is, this But the “toxic” figure drops with Independents/others. business. weekend Micheal Martin is a significantly to 27pc in the This poll finds that 24pc Micheal Martin, on the relative borderline political case of Fianna Fail, which of Labour’s remaining voters other hand, is rising to the phenomenon. tells us that Fianna Fail can be have “some reservations” or new heights of his possibili- Now let us return to the expected to pick up transfers are “not at all certain” about ties. In Fianna Fail, they are headline figures, before I get all over the place, either be- voting for that party this time into the other aspects of this fore, during or after an array — but more interestingly, poll which tell us that Fianna of Independents transfer to that 20pc of Independent ‘Martin has Fail is, relatively speaking, on each other or not. voters feel the same about the verge of completing a re- But here is the thing: how their intentions. The lion’s been through markable political comeback certain are intended Inde- share of those voters is former and the reasons why. pendent voters in their con- Fianna Fail. the dark space According to this poll, victions? Not very, it seems, In other words, before the the next Government could or at least significantly less week is out, a further propor- of alteration be formed by Fianna Fail certain than every other vot- tion of Labour voters, and of (23pc), Sinn Fein (19pc) and ing bloc, other than Labour, Independent voters, “bor- that has left the Social Democrats (4pc), whose supporters seem to be rowed” from Fianna Fail, may with the support of a few having an existential crisis. still return or will, it is fair to its mark’ Independent candidates, but Before I get to that, here assume, transfer in reasonable I believe Martin would resign is what others seem to have numbers to the party to possi- as leader of Fianna Fail before forgotten, or did not real- bly make Micheal Martin the not entirely certain how that he would lead his party into ise. In the past, when voters next Taoiseach. happened either, but it has to government with Sinn Fein. wanted to punish Fianna Fail Whether that happens or do with the man himself. Both The alternative, as pre- they usually voted for Labour, not, there is no doubt that the personally and professionally, sented, Fine Gael (27pc) and hence the odd Labour surge, Fianna Fail leader is poised Martin has been through the Labour (6pc) is dead in the such as the Spring Tide or to have a stunning election dark space of alteration that water; as is a combination of Gilmore Gale or whatever. result. Now the question is — has left its mark. I met him those parties and Independ- In the last election, they how did that happen? In the in the company of some of ent candidates, and whatever really wanted to punish Fi- history of general elections, his frontbench a few months other array of parties, to make anna Fail so they also voted the campaign run by Fine Gael ago — last summer — and up the numbers. Dissatisfac- in large numbers for Fine has, so far, been the he stood out with an almost tion with this Government Gael, something they had worst run by child-like quality of rebirth. (66pc) has risen by four points not contemplated before — any political This is what he told Barry since the election began. the infamous “borrowed” party I can Egan last week: “Experience The government-in-wait- vote to which I referred recall. The makes you calmer.” ing is Fianna Fail and Fine last week which has now arrogance Fine Gael will next week Gael, but here is the question fully left both Fine Gael has been throw the kitchen sink at which will now be asked of and Labour and returned astonish- Fianna Fail. The pundits will Enda Kenny: is he prepared in part to Fianna Fail ing, even tell you that the final election to enter government with or mostly migrated to for Fine debate will be crucial, and, of Fianna Fail with Fine Gael Independents. Gael; the lazy course, it will be. The drama as the minority party? Af- The fact is, these “bor- assumptions must continue. But when the ter months, indeed years of rowed” Fianna Fail vot- —thedetach- lights go down and the camer- vice-versa assumptions, that ers were never ment as start to roll, I can guarantee is the prospect staring him going to you Micheal Martin will be in the face this weekend. For vote for the calmest man in the room. what it’s worth, I believe Ken- Fine But will it be enough to ny would also resign before he Gael in complete the most remark- would do so. signif- able political comeback in Now I would like to return icant recent political history?