Southern Downs: Tourism Market Research Program February 2018
1 Contents
1. Introduction 3
2. Research Methodology 6
3. Brand/ Destination Awareness 9
4. Current Visitor Market Snapshot 17
5. Southern Downs: Visitor Profile and Market Analysis 19
6. Appendices 44
Disclaimer The information and recommendations provided in this document are made on the basis of information available at the time of preparation and the assumptions outlined throughout the document. While all care has been taken to check and validate material presented in this report, independent research should be undertaken before any action or decision is taken on the basis of material contained in this report. This report does not seek to provide any assurance of project viability and EarthCheck accepts no liability for decisions made or the information provided in this report. Images courtesy of Tourism and Events Queensland 2 1. Introduction
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 3 1.1 Introduction and Purpose of Report
Introduction Southern Downs Regional Council commissioned EarthCheck to carry out a program of tourism market research to inform Council’s future investments in the visitor economy – in marketing, communications, and product development.
Purpose of Report
This report provides a summary of market research conducted during the program; focusing on; 1. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the Southern Downs visitor market, covering: • Trend analysis; • Visitor demographics; • Visitor origins; • Visitor activities; • Seasonality in travel patterns; • Visitation forecasts • Benchmarking of performance/visitation patterns with neighbouring areas and the wider Southern Queensland Country region.
Market profile and forecasting information has been sourced from Tourism Research Australia’s international and domestic visitor surveys, and from the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel.
2. Gaining an understanding of awareness of the region, incorporating; • Visitor awareness of the region from its key leisure and day visitor market - south east Queensland • Intention to visit the region in the next 12 months • Profile/awareness of the region’s key destinations, attractions and attributes • Awareness of region as a leisure/holiday destinations, testing an identified range of regional and local destination names and brands.
Market awareness intelligence has primarily been gathering via a 2,500 sample Google panel survey of South East Queensland and northern NSW residents, complementing existing desktop information and previous brand studies, including Tourism and Events Queensland’s regional brand health survey.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 4 1.2 Research Area Context
Historically an area focussed on mining, timber and pastoral pursuits, the Southern Downs region is currently known for its award-winning food and wine and a plethora of striking natural assets and heritage trails. The landscape is characterised by orchards and vineyards in a rolling countryside. In the summer months, sunflower fields line the highway.
The Southern Downs Regional Council area is located approximately a two hour drive south-west from
Brisbane CBD, and within a 3 hour drive of the Gold Figure 1: Southern Queensland Country Region Coast. As part of the Southern Queensland Country Source: Tourism Research Australia Region tourism area (see Figure 1), it is one of a small number of Queensland regions which have a temperate climate with definitive seasons.
Figure 2: Southern Downs Regional Council area Source: Tourism Research Australia
The area is home to a growing population of over 35,000 residents, and hosts a variety of travellers and backpackers for its annual picking seasons. While the area is best known for its agriculture, other major industries include retail, manufacturing, education and training, health care and social assistance and accommodation and food services1.
The tourism industry within the area is estimated to support almost 800 direct full-time equivalent jobs, 29% of which are aged 15-241. According to census data the industry is growing, with an additional 130 jobs in tourism and hospitality in the region between 2006 and 2011, 95 of which were full-time equivalent (2016 data is due for release in the near future).
1. 2016 ABS Census Data
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 5 2. Research Methodology
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 6 2. Methodology
Visitor Market Analysis Market profile and forecasting information has been sourced from Tourism Research Australia’s international and domestic visitor surveys, and from the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel.
For the purposes of this analysis, SDRC has been defined as the statistical areas (SA2 regions) of Stanthorpe, Stanthorpe Region, Warwick, Southern Downs East and Southern Downs West. These statistical areas are created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and are defined by population density (averaging 10,000 people per SA2 region but varying between 3,000 and 25,000 depending on the maintenance of recognisable local boundaries). The above areas have been cross-referenced within both the Tourism Research Australia (TRA) databases and with the ABS to align with the Southern Downs Regional Council bounds current to 2017.
Setting the above SA2 regions as the destination of “Southern Downs”, visitation data was sourced for the following aspects: • Visitor numbers and nights • Visitor demographics • Age • Origin • Travel Party Type • Preferred transport • Accommodation usage • Purpose of visit • Visitor activities • Seasonality • Visitor Spend (which was sourced from TRA’s Tourism Satellite Account).
In order to gain insight into the region’s performance and market characteristics, the same market analysis methodology was applied to the neighbouring Toowoomba, Goondiwindi, Scenic Rim, Tenterfield and the Western Downs council areas, as well as the broader Southern Queensland Country Region (SQRC). Additionally, the areas of visitor numbers, nights and spend for all SDRC markets (domestic day, domestic night and international) have been utilised as the foundation for forecasting until 2023 utilising Tourism Forecast Review Panel’s forecasts for the tourism industry within Queensland and Australia. The forecasting percentages applied relate to regional Queensland’s future expected performance. It should be noted that all data in this report is based on Financial YE June 2017 data sourced from TRA, and as such is subject to change and readjustment by TRA based on survey data releases.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 7 2. Methodology
Brand/Destination Awareness Historically the region has been promoted under a range of sub-regional and regional brand names and marketing areas including Southern Queensland Country and Granite Belt.
To help inform future marketing investment, it was necessary to gain a clear perspective on the destinations and brand names/ tourism areas having greatest awareness and interest in taking a trip to the Southern Downs area.
Gaining this type of information at local level is challenging as most research of this type is traditionally undertaken at regional and State levels. Data sources such as the Holiday Tracking Survey (Roy Morgan) potentially provide regional level data, as does’ TEQ’s brand health survey, but local level information is absent.
At local level, utilisation of Google analytics (frequency of search terms) can provide a useful, albeit crude indicator of interest in searching for information on an area/different destination names, however it is challenging to relate this specifically to tourism/visitor economy interests.
Therefore the approach taken in this study was as follows; 1. A context for Southern Downs was provided by analysis of brand health of Southern Queensland Country 2. Conducting a 2,500 Google panel survey of South East Queensland and Northern NSW residents, covering; • Intention to visit the region in the next 12 months • Profile/awareness of the region’s key destinations, attractions and attributes • Awareness of region as a leisure/holiday destinations, testing an identified range of regional and local destination names and brands • Southern Downs • Southern Queensland Country • Warwick • Stanthorpe 3. The survey touched 8,000 respondents, prior to filtering questions on origin of visitors and age/sex, selected 2.500 respondents 4. After pilot testing, the survey was in market from 14th December 2017 to 31st December 2017.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 8 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 9 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Context: Southern Queensland Country Southern Queensland Country is the newest of Queensland’s thirteen tourism regions, but provides an essential forum for ensuring that the region’s constituent parts are profiled via Tourism and Events Queensland’s marketing investment, and at international level via Tourism Australia’s marketing and communications platforms.
Brand Equity Index (BEI) provides a means of relative measurement of tourism brand health – it is calculated based on consumers’ responses to their favourite brand, brand that they would recommend, and willingness to pay higher prices. Figures 3 and 4 shows that SQC has an BEI of 0.8 - at the lower end of the scale of Queensland’s tourism regions. Scores of 3.1-5 are regarded as strong.
Figure 3: Southern Queensland Country Brand Equity Index (Source TEQ)
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 10 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Figure 4: Queensland Region BEI Trends (Source: TEQ)
Figure 5: Brand Relationship Summary - Queenslanders
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 11 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Figure 6: Brand Relationship Summary - Interstate Visitors
Figure 6: Prompted Destination Marketing Awareness (Source TEQ)
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 12 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Context: Southern Queensland Country Regional brand awareness, consideration and recommendation for SQC among the interstate visitor market is higher than for intrastate markets. SQC is ranked towards the lower end of the scale on both measures.
Figure 7: Destinations intended to visit in the next 12 months (Source TEQ)
Destination marketing awareness scores for SQC place it in a similar ranking with other BEI measures – intrastate awareness is higher than is the case for interstate markets - in this regard, the region is on a similar footing to other Queensland regions such as Outback and Townsville. Intention to visit data indicates a more positive picture, placing the region above a number of other Queensland regions.
Implications for Southern Downs The Southern Queensland Country ranks towards the bottom of regional brand health indicators. This is not an indicator of poor delivery performance, but does show the challenge of gaining traction in he marketplace. Overall health is influenced by a range of factors including; longevity as a brand, levels of marketing investment, attractiveness as a leisure destination etc. • While awareness and recognition levels are relatively low - they are notably higher among interstate visitors markets compared with intrastate markets elsewhere in Australia • The SQC umbrella provides an essential means of ensuring that the region and its constituent destinations gains profile on State-wide and international platforms - in addition to experience-led approaches, TEQ’s approach is built around the concept of tourism regions.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 13 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Southern Downs Destination Research: Awareness A question was posed to the survey panel regarding awareness of brand names and destinations. Results are shown in figure 8, below. Stanthorpe and Warwick recording the highest familiarity levels followed by Granite Belt and Southern Queensland Country. The name ‘Southern Downs’ had the lowest familiarity levels at 18% of respondents. The most significant result was that nearly half (48%) of all respondents were not familiar with any of the destination names or brands, whether local or regional.
Figure 8: Familiarity with Southern Downs ‘Holiday Destinations (Source: EarthCheck Google Panel Survey)
Implications for Southern Downs Given the target audience for the survey which reflected key Southern Downs visitor markets, familiarity and recognition for all search terms was relatively low. Familiarity was highest for Stanthorpe, followed by Warwick. • Relatively low familiarity levels can have their roots in two principal areas – limited presence in market (level/impact of marketing investment, and lack of high profile tourism product (events, attractions, experiences, landscapes , signature experiences etc) that visitors associate with the region. • ‘Southern Downs’ showed lowest recognition levels as a familiar holiday destination, inferring that future marketing investment should not focus on this option - the scale and consistent investment of resources needed to ‘shift’ the market is unlikely to represent good returns on investment.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 14 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Southern Downs Destination Research: Triggers for Recognition and Awareness Survey respondents were asked to indicate which experiences (from a prepopulated list of options) they thought about first for the region. Results are summarised in figure 9, below. Wineries were clearly identified as the experience at the forefront of most visitors’ minds, (38%),followed by Girraween National Park. Queen Mary Falls, the Apple and Grape Festival, snow in Queensland and Warwick Rodeo generated lower scores. 18% of respondents did not associate any of the listed experiences with the region.
Figure 9: Familiarity with Southern Downs ‘Holiday Destinations (Source: EarthCheck Google Panel Survey)
Implications for Southern Downs • Wineries were clearly identified as the stand out trigger set of experiences associated with the region, inferring that they should continue to feature prominently in marketing initiatives • Nearly 20% of respondents were unfamiliar with any of the experiences, again inferring a lack of standout signature experiences which generate familiarity or interest in the marketplace. Building investment in facilitating new product and building signature experiences is an option for Council to consider • Prominence of wineries achieves good alignment with SQC’s hero experiences and TEQ’s emerging positioning on food and drink experiences.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 15 3. Destination/ Brand Awareness
Southern Downs Destination Research: Intention to visit Approximately 30%-40% of respondents indicated that they were unlikely to visit the region in the next twelve months. However 24% of respondents indicated a strong likelihood (scores of 8 to 10) of visiting in the next 12 months. This a positive statistic from a group of respondents who are representative of a key visitor market for the Southern Downs region.
Figure 10: Intention to visit the region in the next 12 months (Source: EarthCheck Google Panel Survey)
Implications for Southern Downs • Intention to visit responses are relatively encouraging (circa 25% of respondents). With regard to the 30%-40% very unlikely to visit, it is important to recognise that awareness of the region does not necessarily infer interest or intent to visit.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 16 4.Southern Downs: Market Snapshot
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 17 Southern Downs Market Research 2016/17
Southern Downs Regional Council is an area defined by its landscape; proudly hosting all four seasons and home to the coldest place in Queensland, the region has a breathtaking range of vistas and a reputation for quality produce against a background of culture and heritage which makes it attractive as a destination.
Southern Downs Regional Council (SDRC) commissioned EarthCheck to undertake an analysis of the current visitor economy and tourism market to provide a picture of the current market trends in SDRC, and to benchmark its performance against the wider Southern Queensland Country Region (SQCR). This analysis revealed key target markets, visitor demographics and included forecasts for visitors, visitor nights and visitor expenditure to 2023. This is intended to provide SCRC with an informed snapshot of tourism industry performance within SDCR, how the area compares to its peer group, and to highlight growing markets for potential focus in the coming years.
Southern Downs Tourism Snapshot:
822,294 visitors in 2016-17 1.28 million domestic visitor nights
99% of visitors self-drive to Southern Downs 54% of visitors are Day Visitors
Overall visitor expenditure is worth approximately $99 million 50% of visitors are from Brisbane, 38% are from elsewhere in the Southern Queensland Country Region Half of visitors are aged 50+
Visitors usually travel as an adult couple Only 1% of visitors are International* Visitors
47% are on Holiday, while 33% are Common activities include dining out at travelling with the main purpose of visiting restaurants and cafes (17%) and visiting friends and relatives friends and relatives (17%) and visiting national parks (7%)
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 18 5. Southern Downs: Visitor Profile and Market Analysis
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 19 5.1 Current Visitor Economy: Visitor Trends
In the past decade, the SDRC area has experienced fluctuations in domestic visitation, ranging from a low of 442,264 total visitors in 2007/08 to a peak of 986,394 total visitors in 2009/10. As is illustrated in Figure 11, below, the largest and most variable market is the domestic day market. Despite this variability, domestic day visitation has increased by an average of 8% per annum since 2006/07, with the peaks and troughs appearing to ease in the later part of the decade. Each market has experienced modest overall growth, the greatest of which was exhibited by the domestic day market (8%p.a.), followed by 5% average per annum growth in the domestic overnight market, and a small increase of 0.2% average growth per annum in the international* market.
Visitation in 2016/17 of 822,294 visitors comprised; domestic day visitors (54%), followed by domestic overnight visitors (45%) and a small number of international* visitors (1%). Overall, there were an additional 312,521 visitors in 2016/07 than there were in 2006/07 - an average of 6% per annum.
700,000 +8% p.a. 600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000 +5% p.a. 200,000 +0.2% p.a. 100,000
- 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight International
Figure 11: Visitation trends by market within SDRC 2006-07 to 2016-17
International* visitor nights have also increased, albeit from a small base, with an average annual growth of 3% since 2006/07.
Despite declining by an average of 1% per annum in the period between 2006/07 and 2016/17, domestic visitor nights to the region have subsequently grown, resulting in 776,5777 nights in 2016/17 in comparison to 824,741 in 2006/07.
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 20 5.1 Current Visitor Economy: Visitor Trends
1,000,000 -1% p.a 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 +3% p.a 100,000 - 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Domestic Overnight International Figure 12: Visitor nights by market within SDRC 2006-07 to 2016-17
Visitation to the Southern Queensland Country Region (SQC), has seen lower levels of year on year visitation variation (Figure 13, below).
4,500,000 +4% p.a. 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 +4% p.a. 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 +1% p.a. 500,000 - 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight International Figure 13: Visitation to SQC 2006/07-2016/17
However, as seen in Figure 14 (over page), SQC demonstrates a different visitor nights pattern to SDRC. Nights to the region have increased at a significantly higher rate than those to the SDRC area, with SQC experiencing an average 10% increase p.a. of international* nights, with significantly less variation year-on-year.
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 21 5.1 Current Visitor Economy: Visitor Trends
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000 +4% p.a. 3,000,000 +10% p.a. 2,000,000
1,000,000
- 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Domestic Overnight International Figure 14: Night to SQC 2006/07 to 2016/17
The variability in visitor nights to Southern Downs has had an impact on visitor Average Length of Stay (ALoS). ALoS in a region can be indicative of several factors: • Visitor reason for visit • Attractiveness of tourism offerings and activities which entice longer stays • Whether there is an industry which employs visitors short-term.
For SDRC, the current ALOS for domestic overnight visitors is 2.1 days, a number which increases to 46.4 days for international* visitors to the region. From these figures it can be inferred that domestic overnight visitors are usually short-break visitors, while international visitors likely partake in local industry such as fruit picking, skewing the ALOS to a much higher number than is usually seen for leisure visitors. As can ben seen in Figure 15, below, domestic overnight ALOS has remained fairly consistent since 2006-07, while international ALOS has increased quite significantly, reflecting the increase in nights seen in Figure 12, as well as the consistent visitor numbers in Figure 13.. ALoS for the SQC region is 3 nights for domestic visitors, and 28.9 for international visitors, indicating that SDRC has a lower domestic ALoS but a higher international ALoS than the broader region.
70 +25% p.a 60 50 40 30 20 -1% p.a 10 0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Domestic Overnight International
Figure 15: Average Length of Stay (ALOS) in SDRC 2006-07 to 2016-17 *SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 22 5.1 Current Visitor Economy: Visitor Trends
Average length of stay (ALoS) is intrinsically related to visitor spend, as this is normally calculated on a per- night basis. Increasing ALoS of domestic visitors is linked to increased expenditure as it includes visitor spend related to accommodation, activities and food and beverage. Average visitor expenditure per night/day in 2016 for Southern Downs was $108 for domestic day visitors, $132 for domestic overnight visitors and $35 for international* visitors. Applying CPI to this results in an approximate current visitor spend of $108.86 for domestic day visitors, $136.88 for domestic overnight visitors, and $36.51 by international visitors. ALoS can also affect visitor spending habits: it is likely that the extended ALOS for international visitors (workers, students etc) has resulted in the lowest spend per night out of the market groups. A percentage breakdown of expenditure is shown in Figure 16. Out of the total expenditure pool of just over $99 million, international visitors due to their small spend and low visitor proportions make up less than 1% (please note that percentages in Figure16 are rounded to the nearest whole number). In real terms, international expenditure for 2016/17 was less than $400,000, while the larger markets of domestic day ($48.3 million) and domestic overnight ($50.2 million) had very similar expenditures despite a difference in visitor numbers which can be attributed to the number of visitor nights and a higher visitor spend for overnight visitors.
>1%
49% 51%
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight International
Figure 16: A breakdown of total visitor expenditure by market 2016/17
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 23 5.2 Current Visitor Economy: Demographics
Visitor demographics are integral to discovering the attributes, preferences and behaviours of target markets. Establishing key trait and preferences can allow tourism offerings to be adapted to become more attractive to target markets, increasing visitor length of stay, promoting visitor spend and maximising tourism.
Figure 17, below, outlines visitor numbers per age group for all markets. This demonstrates that across both domestic markets, there are common age groups which visit SDRC with more frequency that others. Overwhelmingly this illustrates that across both domestic markets, the 55+ age group holds the largest share (48% for domestic day visitors, and 33% for domestic night visitors), with the next most common visitor being aged between 30-34 (for domestic day visitors at 14%) and 40-44 (for domestic night visitors at 15%).
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
- 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55+
Domestic Day Domestic Night International
Figure 17: Age groups for all markets to SDRC 2016/2017
A further analysis of age spread across all markets can be seen in Figures 8, 9 and10, over the page.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 24 5.2 Current Visitor Economy: Demographics
Domestic Day Visitors Figures 18, 19 and 20, to the right, illustrate in greater detail the individual age spread within 250,000 each market. There are significant differences 200,000 in the age profile between each market, 150,000 markedly between both of the domestic 100,000 markets and the international* market. 50,000 - Domestically, the age profile of visitors is weighted more heavily towards the older age groups, although the overnight market is Figure 18: Age spread of Domestic Day Visitors to SDRC 2016/17 more stable across all age groups which indicates a wider appeal in the overnight market. The international market shows a weighting towards younger age groups, with Domestic Overnight Visitors the largest proportion of international visitors 150,000 aged between 25-29 (25%). Proportionally, the 55+ age group is also significant to the 100,000 international market, with 20% of 50,000 international visitors falling into this age group. -
Collectively, the age breakdown of visitors across all markets is as follows: Figure 19: Age spread of Domestic Overnight Visitors to SDRC • 15-19: 5% 2016/17 • 20-24: 2% • 25-29: 7% • 30-34: 13% International Visitors • 35-39: 4% 3,000 • 40-44: 9% • 45-49: 9% 2,000 • 50-54: 11% • 55+: 41% 1,000 -
Figure 20: Age spread International Visitors to SDRC 2016/17
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 25 5.3 Current Visitor Economy: Origin of Visitors
As can be seen in Figure 21, below, domestic visitors to Southern Downs for both Domestic Day and Domestic Overnight markets are predominately from Queensland (90% of all domestic visitors). Overnight visitors are predominately from Queensland (86%), with an additional 15% from New South Wales and 2% from Victoria.
ACT Northern Territory Tasmania Western Australia South Australia Queensland Victoria New South Wales
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Thousands Domestic Day Domestic Night Figure 21: Origin by State for both Domestic Day and Overnight visitors to SDRC 2016/17
Interstate visitors (see Figure 22, below) are sourced from two major regions - for day visitors, half originate from elsewhere in the Darling Downs, and just under half (42%) travel from the Brisbane region. Both Brisbane and the Darling Downs remain the largest source markets for overnight visitors (61% from Brisbane, 20% from elsewhere in the Darling Downs). The Brisbane market across both overnight and day visitors has experienced an average 6% per annum growth since 2006/07.
250 200 150 Thousands 100 50 -
Domestic Day Domestic Night
Figure 22: Source markets for Domestic visitors to SDRC from within Queensland
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 26 5.3 Current Visitor Economy: Origin of Visitors
In terms of the total number of trips from Brisbane to the region; • Overnight visitors from Brisbane made a total of 647,639 trips to SQC in 2016/17. Southern Downs received 23% of these visitors, with approximately 146,000 visitors from Brisbane (average growth of 6% p.a.) • Day Visitors from Brisbane made 1.3 million trips in SQC in 2016/17. Southern Downs captures 14% of this market (180,328 trips). This market to the region has declined by 7% since 2012/13.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Figure 23: International source markets for visitors to SDRC 2016/17
International visitors to Southern Downs travel from a range of different countries, as illustrated in Figure 23*. The top 5 source markets are: • New Zealand (20%) • Taiwan (20%) • Germany (10%) • United States of America (9%) • Thailand (7%)
Although based on small sample sizes, date suggests strong growth from New Zealand has experienced significant growth (an average change per annum of 15% since 2006/07, but an average increase of 12% per annum since 2011/12).
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 27 5.4 Current Visitor Economy: Purpose of Visit
Viewed collectively, the main purpose of visit for visitors to Southern Downs is for Holiday (47%), followed by Visiting Friends and Relatives (33%), Business (12%) and “Other” (8%) which includes employment and education or an unspecified purpose.
Domestic Day Other reason Business 9% 7% Domestic day visitors maintain this trend, with just over half visiting Southern Downs for Holiday purpose, 35% Visiting to Visit Friends and Relatives, 75 to do Business and 9% friends for “other” reason. and Holiday relatives 51% 33% Figure 24: Domestic Day Purpose
Domestic Overnight Other reason Business 5% Domestic Overnight visitors show a higher preference 18% towards Business trips (18%), a stable preference for Visiting Friends and Relatives (33%) and smaller preference for each of the remaining purposes when Visiting Holiday compared to Day visitors. friends 44% and relatives 33% Figure 25: Domestic Overnight Purpose
International Other reason 15% International* visitors show similar preference to the Business domestic market for Visiting Friends and Relatives 4% (34%) and Holiday (47%), but less preference for Visiting Business and a greater preference for “Other”, which friends Holiday can be broken down into 2% for Education and 7% for and 47% Employment purposes. relatives 34% Figure 26: International Purpose *SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 28 5.5 Current Visitor Economy: Visitor Activities
The most common activity group for visitors to Southern Downs are ‘social activities’ (eating and drinking), with 55% of domestic day, 43% of domestic overnight and 25% of international* visitors all undertaking some form of social activity during their visit.
As can be seen in Figure 19, the next most popular activity group is Outdoor/Nature activities, with 17% of domestic day, 17% of domestic overnights and 22% of international visitors undertaking activities such as visiting national parks and state parks, bushwalking, fishing, or going on BBQ’s and picnics.
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Outdoor/nature Active Arts/Heriatge Local Social activities Outdoor/Sports attractions/tourist activities
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight International
Figure 27: Activities undertaken in SDRC by market 2016/17
Tourism Australia has organised activities into themed market segments which relate to target markets, the full list of activities in each segment can be viewed in Appendix 1. Figure 28, below, outlines the total number of activities undertaken by visitors to SDRC within these market categories, and illustrates the average change per year since 2012/13 for each of the market segments.
Tourism Australia Segment Number of Activities undertaken Average change p.a. since 2006/07 Food and Wine 195,925 -3%
City 1,045,113 -2%
Sport and Adventure 108,807 +22%
History and Culture 114,395 +34% Natural Beauty and Wildlife 365,295 +15%
Figure 28 : Activities undertaken in SDRC by TA Segment in 2016/17 *SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 29 5.5 Current Visitor Economy: Visitor Activities
As can be seen in Figure 28, there has been a significant growth visitors undertaking “Sports and Adventure” activities, “History and Culture” activities and Natural Beauty and Wildlife” activities. Each of these have grown by an average of 22%, 34% and 15% per annum respectively since 2012/013. These 3 activity market segments also make up almost a third of all activities undertaken in 2016/17.
“City” based activities, which include activities such as guided tours, visiting friends and relatives, shopping for pleasure and dining out and visiting pubs make up the largest proportion of activities at 54% of all activities, but has experienced an average of a 2% decline per annum since 2012/13. “Food and Wine” activities make up 10% of all activities undertaken, and has experienced an average 3% per annum decline in the last five years. Figure 29, below, illustrates the range of current tourism products which may encourage activities within different market segments.
Product Regionally Significant State Significant Nationally Significant
Apple & Grape Festival X
Memorial Parks X
Cunningham’s Gap X X National Parks
Darling Downs Zoo X X
Stanthorpe Heritage X Museum
Wineries and Tours X
Australian Rodeo X Heritage Centre
Lawdogs Australia X
Speedway Races X
Horse Racing and X Pollocrosse
Figure 29: Reach of tourism products within SDRC
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 30 5.6 Current Visitor Economy: Seasonality
Visitation to Southern Downs is reasonably consistent across the calendar despite the climatic seasonality experienced throughout the region. Only December shows a significant dip in overnight visitation. Figure 30, below, is an average of monthly visitation to the region for the years 2012/13-2016/17. An average was taken to smooth anomalies and to provide a more consistent picture of visitor seasonality to Southern Downs.
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 -
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight
Figure 30: 5-year average of domestic visitor seasonality in SDRC
Figure 30 reveals that July is consistently the most popular month for visiting Southern Downs for both domestic day and domestic overnight visitors: 12% of each market visit during this month. Similar overall trends are experienced in the Southern Queensland Country region (Figure 31).
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight
Figure 31: 5 year average of visitor seasonality within SQC
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 31 5.7 Current Visitor Economy: Short-Break Behaviour
“Short-Break” refers to overnight visitors who remain in region for 1-3 nights. For Southern Downs, this is an essential market segment as 70% of all visitors fall into this category, as illustrated by Figure 32, below. The largest proportion of visitors stay for 2 nights, followed by single night visitors and 3 night visitors.
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 night 2 nights 3 nights 4 - 7 nights 8 - 14 nights 15 - 30 nights 31 or more Figure 32: 5-year average of length of visit proportions for overnight visitors to SDRC nights
Each segment within the short break categories display different behaviours in terms of days of preference. Figure 33, below, illustrates the day of return for each of the market segments (over a 5 year average).
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 night 2 nights 3 nights Figure 33: 5-year average of domestic overnight
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 32 5.8 Current Visitor Economy: Forecasts
Tourism Research Australia releases expected forecasts for Australia’s tourism market on an annual basis, based on a range of factors which are expected to affect travel patterns and visitor spend in each market. Figure 34, below, demonstrates an approximation of Southern Downs visitor numbers beyond 2016/2018 based on the most recent forecasting data at the time of writing. These figures cannot account for unexpected variability in visitor patterns, and also do not assume that there is an increase each year. Based on these figures as a baseline, Southern Downs can potentially expected an additional 252,900 visitors in 2026, a market with similar visitor proportions to now (55% domestic day, 43% domestic overnight, 2% international*) should ALoS remain consistent and the area follows growth trends for regional Queensland. 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight International Forecast
Figure 34:: Historical and forecasted visitor numbers for SDRC to 2026/27
Following this approach, Figure 35 (over page) outlines the potential additional visitors for different market segments within SDRC based on a “business as usual” projection. Unless otherwise specified, all projections are based on combined domestic markets (i.e. overnight and day) due to their market dominance. As the forecasting rates are adjusted annually, these should be utilised as indicative figures only. Additionally, while some can be viewed as discrete segments (such as Domestic Day, Overnight and International), most markets overlaps (some visitors fall into both domestic overnight and holiday purpose categories) and as such they should not be considered cumulative as this may cause duplication and over- projecting.
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 33 5.8 Current Visitor Economy: Forecasts
Figure 35: Potential Additional visitors per market segment for SDRC in 2026/27
Market Segment Forecasted Additional Visitors
Domestic Day +146,482
Domestic Overnight +98,189
1 night (Domestic) +25,674
2 nights (Domestic) +27,765
3 nights (Domestic) +16,922
International* +8,248
Visiting Friends and Relatives +79,750
Holiday +115,869
Business +28,117
Nature Based +76,773
Adventure Based +38,126
Arts and Heritage Based +25,617
*SDRC’s international cohort is largely made up of long-stay, working holiday backpackers with low spending habits
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 34 5.9 Benchmarking
Benchmarking is useful tool to establish a baseline level of performance in key metrics against a series of comparable or neighbouring regions. In order to establish snapshot of performance for SDRC, neighbouring regions - Toowoomba, Goondiwindi, Western Downs, Scenic Rim and Tenterfield were identified as in-region comparators.
A brief overview can be found in Figure 36, below.
VISITORS G’indi West SDRC T’ba (% OF SQC)
5% 13% 55% HOBA 15% RT
Avg. Length of Stay West T’ba G’indi SDRC (ALOS)
8 Days 14 Days 17 Days 24 Days HOBART
Avg. Spend per Night G’indi WestWest SDRC T’ba ($)
HOBART $63 $82 $91 $102
Figure 36: A overview of in-region peer groups
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 35 5.9 Benchmarking: Market Overview
Market Overview: Benchmarks
Figure 37 (below) illustrate that Southern Downs holds a growing market share of the SQC visitor economy, with a higher growth rate than other in-region areas.
Region Market Share of SQCR Average change p.a. since 2006/07 SDRC 15% +6%
Goondiwindi 5% +0.2%
Toowoomba 55% +4%
Western Downs 13% +2%
Figure 37: Market share of SQC Region
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 SDRC Scenic Rim Goodiwindi Toowoomba Western Downs Tenterfield SQCR
+6%p.a +8%p.a +0.2%p.a +4%p.a +2%p.a -4%p.a +4%p.a
Figure 38: Comparative total visitor growth 2006/07 to 2016/17
Region Market Share of SQC Average change p.a. since 2006/07 SDRC 19% +3%
Goondiwindi 7% +10%
Toowoomba 47% +5%
Western Downs 18% +9%
Figure 39: Market share and growth of nights Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 36 5.9 Benchmarking
Demographics
Across all of the peer group regions, the 55+ age group is the most common, dominating age profiles with an average of over 40% of all visitors falling into this age group. Despite this commonality, there are a number of differences in age profiles between regions. Southern Downs aligns with the broader SQC region in terms of rough age profile structure, if not numbers. Most of the peer group follow this general structure, with slight variations.
Southern Downs SQC 400 2,000
300 1,500 1,000 200 Thousands Thousands
100 500
- -
Figure 40: Age profile of SDRC Figure 41: Age profile of SQCR
Scenic Rim Goondiwindi 500 150 400 300 100 200 Thousands 100 Thousands 50 - -
Figure 42: Age profile of Scenic Rim Figure 43: Age profile of Goondiwindi
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 37 5.9 Benchmarking
Domestic Origin The Brisbane market is the most significant market to Southern Downs and its peer group areas. Visitors from Brisbane make 17.7 million day trips within Queensland each year. The in-region peers (within SQC) collectively receive 1.168 million day visitors from Brisbane (7% of all day trips from Brisbane), the majority of which visit Toowoomba (897,042 visitors), followed by SDRC (180,328 visitors), Western Downs (68,753 visitors) and Goondiwindi (22,583 visitors), the proportions of which are outlined in Figure 44, below).
Day Visitors from Brisbane to In-region Peers Overnight Visitors from Brisbane to In- region Peers 6% 15% 2% Southern Downs 28% 22% Goondiwindi 77% Toowoomba 43% 7% Western Downs
Figure 44:: Day and Overnight visitors from Brisbane to In-region peers (proportions from total)
Figure 45, over, provides a comparison of international visitor markets.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 38 5.9 Benchmarking
Region and Number of International Source Market Proportion of International Visitors Visitors Southern Downs New Zealand 20% 10,941 international visitors Taiwan 10% Germany 10% United Kingdom 9%
Goondiwindi United States of America 28% 3,418 international visitors United Kingdom 13%
Netherlands 10%
Scandinavia 8%
Toowoomba New Zealand 18% 24,327 international visitors United States of America 16%
Taiwan 8%
United Kingdom 8%
Western Downs United States of America 26% 5,970 international visitors New Zealand 22%
United Kingdom 10%
Netherlands 5%
Scenic Rim United Kingdom 20% 14,389 international visitors Germany 18%
New Zealand 10%
Scandinavia 7%
Tenterfield France 23% 3,127 international visitors United Kingdom 22%
United States of America 21%
Scandinavia 9%
Southern Queensland Country New Zealand 19% 46,272 international visitors United States of America 16%
United Kingdom 10%
Germany 6%
Figure 45 : International visitor source markets Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 39 5.9 Benchmarking
Purpose of Visit
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Goondiwindi Toowoomba Western Scenic Rim Tenterfield SQCR Downs Downs
Holiday VFR Business Other
Figure 46: Comparative purpose of visit proportions for each peer group
Overall, Holiday and Visiting Friends are the dominant purpose of visits across all comparator destinations. The changes in visitation structure across the comparator group are outlined in Figure 47, over the page.
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 40 5.9 Benchmarking
Figure 47: Growth in purpose segments for each peer group region
Region Purpose Segment Change since 2006/07
Southern Downs Holiday +8%
VFR +4%
Business +8%
Other +4%
Goondiwindi Holiday +5%
VFR +3%
Business -3%
Other +41%
Toowoomba Holiday +6%
VFR +5%
Business -1%
Other +4%
Western Downs Holiday -1%
VFR 0.1%
Business +12%
Other +11%
Scenic Rim Holiday +10%
VFR +4%
Business +35%
Other -3%
Tenterfield Holiday -7%
VFR +2%
Business +56%
Other Sample size too small
Southern Queensland Country Holiday +4%
VFR +4%
Business +2%
Other +7%
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 41 5.9 Benchmarking
Visitor Activities
Across most of the comparator areas, and in line with the broader SQC region, social activities (eating out etc) are the most popular, with outdoor and nature also featuring prominently.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Goondiwindi Toowoomba Western Scenic Rim Tenterfield SQCR Downs Downs
Outdoor/Nature Active Outdoor/Sports Arts/Heritage Local attractions Social activities
Figure 48: Comparative activity proportions
As can be seen in Figure 49, over page, Scenic Rim has a similar range of ADTW listed product offerings. However, Western Downs has a markedly different range of offerings, particularly in terms of Art and Heritage, but a similar participation structure despite the disparity in offerings. Southern Downs has a significantly larger set of Nature and Wildlife offerings, but level of Outdoor/Nature and Active Outdoor/Sports activity participation which is on par with Western Downs..
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 42 5.9 Benchmarking
Product SDRC Goondiwindi Toowoomba Scenic Rim Western Tenterfield Grouping Downs Arts and 35 19 47 31 122 12 Heritage City 32 3 31 32 7 21 Natural Beauty 33 8 19 33 19 19 and Wildlife Food and Wine 56 4 5 24 16 21 Aquatic and 1 1 1 0 14 0 Coastal Sport and 33 5 1 16 30 4 Adventure Total 190 40 104 136 208 77
Figure 49: ATDW listed offerings within each peer group that align with Tourism Australia market segments
Product Regionally State Significant Nationally Significant Significant Apple & Grape Festival X Memorial Parks X Cunningham’s Gap National Parks X X Darling Downs Zoo X X Tenterfield Saddler X Girraween National Park X X Australia’s Country Way X X Gold Cup Campdraft X Jumpers and Jazz in July X Wineries X Freshwater fishing X Warwick Rodeo X
Figure 50: The reach of events and tourism offerings within SDRC
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 43 APPENDICES
Southern Downs Market Research : January 2018 44 Appendix 1 Activities by Tourism Australia Market Segments
Coastal and Aquatic Go to the beach Visit the reef Fishing Scuba diving Snorkelling Surfing Charter boat / cruise / ferry Visit or stay on an island Go whale or dolphin watching Food and Wine Visit farms Go to markets Visit wineries Visit breweries or distilleries (2016 onwards) Visit farmgates (2016 onwards) Picnics or BBQs City Visit amusements / theme parks Go on guided tours or excursions Visit a health spa / sanctuary / well-being centre Visit friends & relatives Pubs, clubs, discos etc Visit casinos Go shopping for pleasure Eat out / dine at a restaurant and/or cafe Sightseeing/looking around Movies/videos Attend movies/cinema Sport and Adventure Golf Water activities / sports Snow skiing Cycling Exercise, gym or swimming Play other sports Attend an organised sporting event History and Culture Attend theatre, concerts or other performing arts Visit museums or art galleries Visit art / craft workshops / studios Attend festivals / fairs or cultural events Visit history / heritage buildings, sites or monuments Experience aboriginal art / craft and cultural displays Visit an aboriginal site / community Tourist trains Natural Beauty and Wildlife Visit national parks / state parks Visit botanical or other public gardens Bushwalking / rainforest walks Other outdoor activities (no further detail) Southern Downs Market ResearchVisit : wildlife January parks 2018 / zoos / aquariums 45