St. Charles Parish School Board: Needs & Capacity Assessment 2007 Contents CONTENTS Executive Summary .............................................. 1 Preface: Needs and Capacity Assessment ......................... 4 School Enrollment: National, State, St. Charles ................ 5 Population Growth and School Enrollment .................... 7 St. Charles School Configuration .............................. 15 Methodology for Updating Projections ........................ 16 Enrollment Projections ........................................ 20 Individual School Enrollment Projections ..................... 23 Capacity to Meet Present and Future Needs ................... 43 Growth and School Capacity ................................... 47 Recommendations for Consideration ........................... 51 Prepared by: 5058 West Main Street Houma, Louisiana 70360 (985) 851–2900 13855 River Road School Board Members: Luling, Louisiana 70070 Mr. Clarence Savoie, President www.scpdc.org (985) 785–6289 Mr. John Smith Mr. Ellis Alexander www.stcharles.k12.la.us Ms. Mary Bergeron Mr. Dennis Naquin Superintendent: Mr. John Robichaux Dr. Rodney Lafon Mr. Stephen Crovetto Mr. Alex Suffrin ii St. Charles Parish School Board Needs and Capacity Assessment Executive Summary EXE C UTIVE SUMMARY This report is the third installment in the series assessing school facility needs and capacity devel- oped for the St. Charles Parish School Board by South Central Planning and Development Commission (SCPDC). The purpose of developing school enroll- ment projections is to look to the future, relating school capacity to present and future demand. It also includes a broad base of information, offer- ing high, low, average and median enrollment estimates. This report provides both historic enroll- ment figures and projections for the post-Katrina years of 2004-05 and 2005-06. The comparison of Standing: Dennis Naquin, Ellis Alexander, Dr. Rodney Lafon, high and low estimates proved to be farther from John Smith, Alex Suffrin. Seated: John Robichaux, Mary Bergeron, actual outcomes than the average and median Clarence Savoie, Stephen Crovetto. estimates. Summary of findings based on the data: • Public school enrollment in St. Charles remains stable, after a slight post-Katrina spike • St. Charles continues to see significant new residential development • Public school capacity in St. Charles Parish surpasses regional capacity averages as well as state minimum requirements • St. Charles’s existing and planned public school capacity can accommodate any additional enroll- ment associated with new development The line graphs on the following pages visually depict trends that could affect facility needs and capacity in St. Charles. St. Charles Parish School Board Needs and Capacity Assessment 1 - RENDS T In the 40 years from 1960 to 2000, St. Charles Parish has experienced cumulative population ULATION P growth of approximately 92.6%. O The parish continues to see significant new P residential development, as detailed in the body of this report. Cumulative annual population growth since 2000 totals approximately 9.6%. Only part of population growth in St. Charles can be attributed to natural augmenta tion. Live births in St. Charles had tapered off, Executive Summary but showed a significant increase in 2004, the last year for which data is currently available. St. Charles Population St Charles Parish Live Births 2000 2004 50000 800 2003 1990 2002 2001 40000 750 1980 2000 1999 700 1970 1998 30000 1997 1960 650 1996 1995 20000 600 Annual Population Figures July 2006 55000 July 2005 July 2004 52500 July 2003 50000 July 2002 July 2001 47500 July 2000 45000 St. Charles Parish School Board Needs and Capacity Assessment 2 Executive Summary NROLLMENT June 2007 E HOOL C S Feb. 2007 Oct. 2006 2006-07 May 2006 2005-06 Apr. 2006 West Bank East Bank 2004-05 3 March 2006 Public schools in St. Charles experiencedSt. Charlesa slight spike Parish in enrollment District-WidePost-Disaster the year of Hurricane Katrina. Enrollment 2003-04 The following year, enrollment stabilized, returning to around the pre-disaster level. The chart below provides monthly detail on post-disaster enrollments and enrollment trends on the Feb. 2006 10000 2002-03 2006-07 parish’s West and East Banks. 9750 9500 Jan. 2006 2001-02 9250 St. Charles District-Wide Post-Disaster Enrollment 9000 2000-01 2005-06 1999-00 10100 9825 9550 1998-99 West Bank & East Bank Enrollment Trends 9275 2004-05 9000 St. Charles Parish School Board Needs and Capacity Assessment 5500 5125 2003-04 4750 4375 4000 Preface PREFA C E : NEEDS AND CA P A C ITY ASSESSMENT In 1997, the St. Charles Parish School Board asked the South Central Planning and Development Commission (SCPDC) for technical assistance in long–term facility planning. SCPDC prepared a Needs and Capacity Assessment to assist the school district in anticipating its current and ongoing facility needs. The assessment incorporated school attendance zone maps and five– and ten–year student enrollment projections. It also considered per student space requirements and costs and made recom- mendations regarding School Board participation in the St. Charles Parish subdivision approval process in order to anticipate future demand. The needs and capacity assessment process has continued over the past decade. SCPDC prepared an updated assessment in 2000 that extended the initial enrollment projections to 2010. The current report, the third in the series, provides actual enrollment figures through June 2007 and extends five–year enrollment projections to 2012. This report also considers probable long–term affects of recent disaster and recovery efforts on facility needs. Many factors affect the validity of long–range projections. Broad national trends cannot reflect local conditions such as the opening or closing of major local employers or the construction of new highways which allow development of previ- ously undeveloped land. Projections of nationwide student enrollments leave out details that must be considered when assigning students to specific schools within a particular school district. Varia- tions in the local economy, in residential building trends and in birthrates can all affect the reliabil- ity of projections. Proximity to growth centers may increase population at a particular school or throughout a school district. Age distribution of the population may increase enrollment at some schools, while shrinking enrollment at other schools within the same district. Events like Hurricane Katrina can affect the basic assumptions on which local and regional projec- tions were based. Research in disaster recovery indicates that the aftermath of events of the magnitude of Katrina will continue to affect the region’s population, settlement patterns and economy and can be expected to cause fundamental, ongoing demographic shifts for years to come. While specific and immediate impacts are often difficult to quantify, this report attempts to use accessible indicators to suggest likely short– and long–term, post–disaster impacts on the size and composition of St. Charles Parish’s school–age population and on related public school facility needs. 4 St. Charles Parish School Board Needs and Capacity Assessment School Enrollment SC HOOL ENROLLMENT : NATIONAL , STATE , ST. CHARLES In 2005–2006, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reported that public elementary and secondary school enrollment in the United States totaled 49.1 million. This was an increase of 1% from the 48.8 million students in 2004–2005, but a 5% drop over the decade since 1996, when national enrollment stood at 51.7 million. Of the national total, 34.3 million or 69.9% of students were enrolled in pre–kindergarten through grade eight and ungraded classes. The remaining 14.8 million or 30.1% were enrolled in grades nine to twelve. In 1996, Louisiana was among a handful of states expected to experience a decline in public school enrollment. NCES projected a drop of up to 5% from 1999 to 2009. In 2005–2006, after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, NCES estimated that Louisiana’s total public school enrollment was 654,526. The official figure issued by the Louisiana Department of Education was 653,786. The variation is indicative of post–disaster fluctuations noted in the 2005–2006 Louisiana State Education Progress Report. It also probably reflects difficulties in obtaining accurate information in the state’s most devastated parishes. NCES now projects a 1% increase in public school enrollment in Louisiana from 2003 to 2015. As of February 1, 2007, the State Education Department reported a total state public school enrollment of 676,731. After the 2005 hurricanes, public school enrollment plummeted in the state’s most devastated parishes. The Louisiana Department of Education estimated a statewide decline of approximately 70,200 students or 10% from the pre–disaster level. Louisiana school districts that suffered less severe damage accepted approximately 22,000 of the displaced students. Louisiana Enrollment In Grades K–12 Public Elementary and Secondary Schools Year Enrollment Percent Change October 2001 736,571 October 2002 736,495 –0.01% October 2003 734,706 –0.24% October 2004 731,351 –0.46% October 2005 612,468 –19.41% December 2005 655, 194 6.53% 2006 653,786 0.002% Note that, after a slight rebound at the end of 2005, enrollment again dropped in 2006. As the 2005– 2006 Progress Report stated, “pre–hurricane enrollment trends may take years to recover.” St. Charles Parish has also seen a decline in