Gold'n'stocks and the Six Bears
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HNW_NRG_C_Bleed_Transp Stu’s View May 11, 2020 Gold’n’Stocks and the Six Bears Since the Great COVID Crisis began a few months ago, I’ve received an increasing number of questions about gold. That is not surprising since gold is traditionally seen by many as a “safe Stuart Morrow haven” during times of crisis, when other types of assets are Vice President & Head under pressure. Of course, we’ve seen significant volatility in both of Investments RBC Phillips, Hager & North the equity and in the bond markets since the beginning of this Investment Counsel Inc. year. Another factor is the massive monetary and fiscal support from governments and global central banks, which has driven the after-inflation rate of interest lower still, a boon for the price of gold. The reasons for gold’s importance in the modern economy centers on the fact that it has successfully preserved wealth over thousands of generations. The same, however, cannot be said about all paper-denominated currencies. Gold has traditionally acted as a underlying demand and supply factors, “hedge” within investment portfolios. and after accounting for transaction Historically, it has provided a degree costs, insurance costs and storage of stability when compared to the costs in the case of physical gold, the volatility in stocks, for instance. Gold net returns can be less than what the is considered one risk management headlines may suggest. tool to help manage portfolio volatility over time, as the classic investment In this edition of Stu’s View, we take hedge against inflation. Other risk a look at the performance of gold in management tools include derivatives, different market environments: periods such as put options to hedge downside of inflation and deflation, bear markets, risk in equities, bonds and/or cash. As bear market rallies, and times of high with stocks and bonds, gold is not a volatility within bull markets. To be foolproof investment either. Its price clear, we are not advocates of market can fluctuate based on a variety of timing, but rather our investment Continued on page 2 RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel Page 2 of 9 Gold’n’Stocks and the Six Bears Continued from page 1 philosophy is one of time in the market. Chart 1: Gold price versus real and nominal yields So we do not opine on the timing of any potential purchase or sale of 2500 Gold versus real and nominal yields 10% gold. Each investor is faced with their Gold ($/oz, LHS) Inflation indexed bond yield (10yr, RHS) US bond yield (10yr, RHS) own unique set of circumstances, risk 8% tolerance, risk capacity and investment 2000 objectives that will determine the 6% appropriate allocation to gold, and 1500 which gold investment vehicle(s) to use within the portfolio. We discussed 4% Gold ($/oz) liquidity risks in an earlier article “The 1000 US Govt Bond Yield (%) liquidity conundrum” dated April 16, 2% 2020. Different gold investments carry varying degrees of liquidity risk, which 500 0% we will discuss at length in this note. Summary points: 0 -2 % J an -97 J an -99 J an -01 J an -03 J an -05 J an -07 J an -09 J an -11 J an -13 J an -15 J an -17 J an -19 • Gold has traditionally worked Source: RBC Capital Markets Research, reprinted with permission. As of April 30, 2020. Date of RBC Capital Markets publication May 6, 2020. Data is well as an inflation hedge in the daily and from Jan 30/97 to Apr 30/20. Gold prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, and is represented by The LBMA Gold Price (“Benchmark”,) which is owned by London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA), who provide the auction platform, methodology as well as the portfolio. overall administration and governance for the LBMA Gold Price. The LBMA Gold Price is set twice daily at 10:30 and 15:00 (London, UK time) in an auction independently operated and administered by ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA). The price is set in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce. The futures market • Gold has not done well during sets the price of an ounce of gold (called the “spot” price) at any given minute of the trading day. Because it takes cost and effort to convert a lump of gold into a specific shape and then ship it to a dealer, the mints tack on an extra fee when they sell their products to precious metals dealers. Those periods of disinflation. dealers in turn add their own mark-up. The total price above the spot value that you pay at the store is referred to as the “premium.” Inflation indexed bond yield 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity, not seasonally adjusted. US Government Bond 10-year maturity quoted as the • Gold may perform better than daily yield on the U.S. Government 10-year Treasury Bond. some expect during periods of deflation. against inflation based on gold price • During bear markets gold has been Unfortunately there are only a few a good hedge for equities, though returns during the period of high recorded instances to look back it will lag equity returns during inflation of the 1970s. The case for upon and see what impact deflation bear market rallies. gold during inflationary environments had on the purchasing power of is easy enough. Gold rises as interest • During bull markets, gold has gold. During the only extended done well relative to equities when rates decline (chart 1), and/or the period of global deflation – the Great there is greater uncertainty in the U.S. dollar declines relative to other Depression of the 1930s – the price economy and/or financial markets, currencies, both of which can be of gold was fixed, as most countries and lags during other periods. caused by a number of factors. were on the gold standard. This In anticipation of rising inflation, • Today there is renewed interest makes it difficult to analyze gold in gold as an investment given demand for gold exposure by investors demand during that time period. So heightened volatility caused by increases in order to protect the we are forced to concede that one economic slowdown/recession purchasing power as paper currencies does not know with any degree of from coronavirus, and investors’ are debasing. certainty how gold might behave in a desire for more “safe-haven” deflationary scenario. assets. Deflation: Yet today, the concern may • There are multiple ways in which be less about inflation and more about One theory suggests that a you can invest in gold, from deflation. Deflation occurs when asset protracted deflationary recession/ physical to paper to electronic and consumer prices fall over time. depression scenario might see gold investments. Each option has a set While this may seem like a great thing demand relative to paper currency of benefits and risks as discussed for consumers, the actual cause of hold up well. Certainly as the supply in this note. widespread deflation is a long-term of currency rises and concerns about drop in demand, and it arguably turned debt levels rise, investors may fear Inflation, deflation, and disinflation – the 1929 recession into the Great paper currency devaluation and why and when does gold perform? Depression. look for alternative assets to hold, meaning gold. In addition, concerns Inflation: Most investors understand So then, how does gold do in about financial institution – and that gold can be used as a hedge a deflationary environment? even government – solvency and Continued on page 3 Page 3 of 9 Gold’n’Stocks and the Six Bears Continued from page 2 counterparty risk raises demand for with an attractive 10-year compound indicated in Chart 3 have held up fairly alternatives to paper currency (i.e. annual growth rate of 31%. As the 1980s well, with a compound annual growth gold, and perhaps silver as well, and experienced a period of disinflation rate (CAGR) of 8%, relative to the price real tangible assets like real estate and as just described, the positive returns return of the S&P 500 Index at 7.1%. infrastructure). from the 1970s were not to be had. Yet when we account for risk, looking It wasn’t until the beginning of this at annualized volatility or standard One last term to put out there is century, during the Great Financial deviation in the last two columns of disinflation. This is not to be confused Crisis of 2008, that we saw gold once Chart 3, risk-adjusted returns over the with deflation. Disinflation is decline in again earn a positive return. It seems last 50 years were higher for stocks the rate of inflation, which could still like the starting period mattered most than with gold. As we see in Chart 3, mean positive inflation but the rate to the returns over the last 50 years. your investment horizon, or starting of inflation is getting lower over time. period, did make a difference when Gold tends to shine only when inflation Over the last 50 years, on a relative comparing returns between stocks and is high and accelerating. The market is basis to stocks, gold investments as gold. Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, always forward-looking, so if inflation is high but decreasing, investors are Chart 2: Investing in gold over the last five decades not likely to lose confidence in a fiat currency, and therefore demand Decade returns Buy date Sell date Buy price Sell price CAGR for gold likely declines. We do have 1970 Jan 1/70 Jan 1/80 $34.99 $717.00 35% one period in time when disinflation 1980 Jan 1/80 Jan 1/90 $717.00 $420.75 -5% impacted gold prices to look back upon.