The Design Effect: Do We Know All About It?
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Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, August 5-9, 2001 THE DESIGN EFFECT: DO WE KNOW ALL ABOUT IT? Inho Park and Hyunshik Lee, Westat Inho Park, Westat, 1650 Research Boulevard, Rockville, Maryland 20850 Key Words: Complex sample, Simple random where y is an estimate of the population mean (Y ) sample, pps sampling, Point and variance under a complex design with the sample size of n, f is a estimation, Ratio mean, Total estimator 2 = ()− −1∑N − 2 sampling fraction, and S y N 1 i=1(yi Y ) is 1. Introduction the population element variance of the y-variable. In general, the design effect can be defined for any The design effect is widely used in survey meaningful statistic computed from the sample selected sampling for planning a sample design and to report the from the complex sample design. effect of the sample design in estimation and analysis. It The Deff is a population quantity that depends on is defined as the ratio of the variance of an estimator the sample design and the statistic. The same parameter under a sample design to that of the estimator under can be estimated by different estimators and their simple random sampling. An estimated design effect is Deff’s are different even under the same design. routinely produced by sample survey software such as Therefore, the Deff includes not only the efficiency of WesVar and SUDAAN. the design but also the efficiency of the estimator. This paper examines the relationship between the Särndal et al. (1992, p. 54) made this point clear by design effects of the total estimator and the ratio mean defining it as a function of the design (p) and the estimator, under unequal probability sampling. After a θˆ θ brief review on various definitions and practical usage estimator ( ) for the population parameter .Thus, of the design effect, we consider a decomposition of the we may write it as θˆ = θˆ θˆ′ design effect of the total estimator in term of that of the Deff(p, ) Varp ( ) / Varsrswor ( ) (2.2) ratio mean. In addition, a model-assisted method is used to derive some useful approximate formulae, with where θˆ′ is the usual form of estimator for θ under which we make further comparison of the design effects srswor, which is normally different from θˆ .For of the two estimators. The approximate formulae example, to estimate the population mean, one may use derived here are also compared with the well-known θˆ = Kish’s approximate formula (Kish, 1965, 1995). the ratio mean ∑s wi yi / ∑s wi with sampling Finally, we apply our formulae to an artificial weights w but θˆ′ would be the sample mean ∑ y / n . population created from a complex health survey data i s i for illustration. We will see the effect of a particular statistic θˆ on the design effect in Section 3. In particular, we will show 2. Definition and Use of Design Effect in that the Deff for the Hansen-Hurwitz (or Horvitz- Practice Thompson) estimator for the population total can be very different from the ratio mean for the population The precursor of the design effect that has been mean. popularized by Kish (1965) was used by Cornfield Cochran (1977, p. 85) stated “The design effect (1951). He defined the efficiency of a complex has two primary uses – in sample size determination sampling design as the ratio of the variance of a statistic and in appraising the efficiency of more complex under simple random sampling without replacement plans.” These are still main uses of the design effect. (srswor)withasamplesizeofn to the variance of the However, other important uses have emerged; to statistic under the complex design with the same sample compute the effective sample size and to modify the size. The inverse of the ratio defined by Cornfield was inferential statistic in data analysis as Scott and Rao also used by other sampling statisticians. For example, (1981) used the average design effect to modify the Hansen, Hurwitz, and Madow (1953, pp. 259-270) Pearson type χ 2 -test statistic for complex samples. discussed the increase of the variance due to clustering effect of the cluster sampling over srswor. However, the Kish (1992) later advocated using a slightly name, the design effect, or Deff in short was coined and different Deff, which is called Deft and uses the simple defined formally by Kish (1965, Section 8.2, p. 258) as random sampling with replacement (srswr) variance in “the ratio of the actual variance of a sample to the the denominator. His logic was that without- variance of a simple random sample of the same replacement sampling is a part of design and should be numberofelements.”TheDeffforanestimateofthe captured in the definition. Deft is also easier to use for population mean is given by making inferences. Another reason Kish quoted is that the finite population correction factor (1− f ) may be = 2 Deff Var( y) / {(1- f ) S y / n} (2.1) difficult to compute in some situations. The new correlation between the sampling weights and the definition is given by survey variable (y). However, if the correlation is θˆ = θˆ θˆ′ present, the formula must be modified as studied by Deft(p, ) Varp ( ) / Varsrswr ( ) (2.3) Spencer (2000). We also examine this point further along with Spencer’s approximate formulae in or Deft2 ( p,θˆ) = Var (θˆ) / Var (θˆ) . Survey data p srswr Section 4. software such as WesVar and SUDAAN produce However, when one comes to the Horvitz- Deft2 instead of Deff. Thompson type of total estimator, the situation becomes When the population parameter is the total (Y), very different. Particularly, when the weights are poorly the unbiased estimator is the (weighted) sample total, correlated with the y-variable and the weights vary a lot, the design effect for the total estimator can be much ˆ = ∑ namely, Y s wi yi ,where wi is the properly defined greater than that for the ratio mean. In Section 3, we sampling weight and the summation is over the sample analyze this fact in detail for unequal probability s. When the mean is the parameter of interest, it is sampling. usually estimated by the ratio mean, that is, Yˆ = ∑ w y ∑ w . It is a special case of the ratio 3. DecompositionofDesignEffectofSample s i i s i Total Under Unequal Probability Sampling ≡ ∈ estimator, ∑s wi yi ∑s wi xi ,where xi 1 for all i s . One common misconception about the design Consider a sample design (denoted by p )witha ˆ effects of Yˆ and Y is that they in values are similar. sample size of n drawn by unequal probability However, it has been observed that the design effect of sampling with replacement from a finite population U Yˆ , deft 2 ( p,Yˆ) , is much larger than that of the ratio of size N.Let yk denote the y-value of element k and ˆ let pk denote the associated selection probability, mean, deft 2 ( p,Y ) for human populations. For where ∑ p = 1 . Note that the n draws are example, see Kish (1987) and Hansen, Hurwitz, and U k Madow (1953, p. 608). Some explanation can be found independent since sample selection is with replacement. in Särndal et al. (1992, p. 65 and p. 133) who showed If pk are proportional to a positive size measure xk , 2 ∝ that deft ( p,Yˆ) depends on the relative variation of that is, pk xk , then the sampling scheme is the y-variable under Bernoulli sampling and a special probability proportional to size (pps) sampling. case of one-stage cluster sampling. This dependence Let ki represent the element selected on the i-th contradicts what the design effect is intended to draw. Then the Hansen-Hurwitz’s estimator of the finite measure as Kish (1995) explicitly described: “Deft are population total, Y = ∑ y , is given as used to express the effects of sample design beyond the U k n 2 ˆ = 1 elemental variability ( S y / n ), removing both the units Y ∑ yk pk . (3.1) n = i i of measurement and sample size as nuisance i 1 It is easy to see that E (y / p ) = Y and thus Yˆ is parameters. With the removal of S y , the units, and the p ki ki sample size n,thedesigneffectsonthesamplingerrors the average of n unbiased estimators of Y .For are made generalizable (transferable) to other statistics simplicity, we use i to denote ki unless any confusion and to other variables, within the same survey, and even to other surveys.” His statement is loosely true for the arises. The variance of Yˆ can be written as ˆ 1 ratio mean Y , as the usual approximate design effect Var()Yˆ = ∑ p {}()y / p −Y 2 n U i i i formula is independent of a particular y-variable. A (3.2) 2 = 1 −1 − 2 frequently used approximate formula for the Deft of ∑U pi (yi piY) the ratio mean is given by Kish (1987) n (see Särndal et al., 1992, pp. 51-52). 2 ˆ = + ρ − + 2 Deft ( p,Y ) {1 (b 1)}(1 cv w ) (2.4) Now consider the estimation of the finite where p is an unequal probability sampling of clusters population mean, Y = Y / N .Itcanbeestimatedbythe design, ρ is the intraclass correlation (often called ˆ = ˆ ˆ ˆ = n ratio mean Y Y / N where N ∑ = 1 (npi ) is an within cluster homogeneity measure), b is the average i 1 estimator of the population size N. Using Taylor 2 cluster size, and cvw is the relative variance of the linearization, as shown in Särndal et al.