California Election Breakdown
As campaigning really gears up with less than two weeks until the election, CRA wanted to highlight some races below that our members may find interesting to watch. Additionally, there are more in-depth analyses of competitive races on the following pages.
Though there are no projected changes for control of the state legislature, the Democrats are targeting plenty of vulnerable Republican incumbents in the state house where voter registration trends have changed in their favor, which include Assembly Districts 35, 36, 55, and 68 and Senate District 21, 29, and 37. The Republicans, in addition to holding on to their vulnerable seats, are targeting a couple vulnerable Democrats themselves in Assembly Districts 74 and 77.
However, the most interesting race may be the one that takes place behind closed doors: Assembly leadership. The end of session fiasco showed some intraparty and interhouse tensions coming to a head with bills dying at midnight as behind the scene squabbles made their way to the floor. The Speaker also came under fire for a proxy voting decision he made, which made national news headlines. Additionally, there is a vacancy in the Assembly leadership with Assembly Majority Leader’s decision to not run for re-election. This will all likely happen outside the public view, but it is something to watch for after the General Election.
The story is a little bit different for congressional races. Democrats rode a wave of national enthusiasm to pick up some seats in traditionally Republican strongholds, such as the Central Valley and Orange County. This year Democrats have the difficult task of reframing the race from being political outsiders challenging longtime incumbents to defending their own record over the past two years; this is the case for Congressional Districts 10, 21, 39, 48, and 49. District 25 will also be an interesting race to watch with recent incumbent Mike Garcia facing off against former Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who lost to Garcia in the special election to fill the remainder of the term as former incumbent Katie Hill resigned. Though Garcia won the special election back in May, the race this time around is gearing up to be even more competitive.
Speaking of Congress, California is potentially at risk to lose at least one Congressional seat after the census and reapportionment are completed. A study by Claremont McKenna College (see here) analyzed the population trends and undercounted communities in California since 2010 and predicts the lost seat will likely come from the San Gabriel Valley. This is something that will be confirmed in the next year or two and will take effect for the 2022 election.
We hope this helps you navigate the political landscape in California in preparation for the 2020 General Election!
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Assembly District 35 – Likely Republican Republican incumbent Jordan Cunningham represents a purple district that has recently skewed democratic in district party registration. He faces a challenge from Morro Bay City Councilmember Dawn Addis, who’s fundraising has kept up with Cunningham, though the incumbent is leading with cash overall. Cunningham was also the clear winner of the March primary with a 14-point advantage, but things are starting to heat up as November nears.
Assembly District 36 – Likely Republican Republican incumbent Tom Lackey is a moderate member of the Assembly Republican Caucus, known for bipartisan legislation, and represents a district that has about a 10-point Democratic advantage in voter registration. The challenger is moderate Democrat Steve Fox, who held the seat for one term before being ousted by Lackey. Fox is a fairly controversial figure, enough so that the California Democratic Party refused to endorse him. Lackey currently has on hand, and has raised, significantly more money than Fox – though contributions are still coming in for the Democrat.
Assembly District 42 – Likely Independent Incumbent Chad Mayes, the former Assembly Republican leader who dropped his Republican Party registration, will now be running as an independent. Mayes, as Assembly Republican leader, worked with Democrats to reauthorize the cap-and-trade emissions reduction program in California, which ended up costing him his leadership role. He now faces a challenge from Republican San Jacinto Mayor and businessman Andrew Kotyuk, who has the support of the state Republican Party. Mayes is significantly leading in the money race while Kotyuk has raised a dismal amount this entire year. This race will be interesting to see if an anti-Trump former Republican can hang on in a district that Trump carried significantly.
Assembly District 55 – Toss-up Republican incumbent Phillip Chen has confidently, yet carefully, represented this district with a nearly even but slight Democratic in advantage voter registration. Democratic Mayor of Walnut, Andrew Rodriguez, is presenting a formidable challenge, fundraising more this year and not far behind with cash on hand. The seat is also in overlapped with a competitive Congressional and State Senate race, which adds another dynamic to this already competitive race.
Assembly District 68 – Toss-up This Orange County district has historically been reliably Republican but that is changing as demographics and voter registration shifts, with more voters registering as No Party Preference than Republicans since 2016. The incumbent, Steven Choi, votes steadily with the Assembly Republican caucus, but is not known for his fundraising, trailing behind his opponent significantly in that area. Melissa Fox, the Democratic challenger who is an Irving City Councilmember, has been one of the most prolific fundraisers of all Assembly campaigns this election cycle and presents a formidable election fight.
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Assembly District 72 – Leans Republican The incumbent, Tyler Diep, lost in the primary largely due to his vote for independent contractor legislation. Facing off in the General Election are Republican former State Senator Janet Nguyen and Democratic Garden Grove City Councilmember Diedre Thu-Ha Nguyen. The Democrat has significantly out-fundraised the Republican so far but the campaign focuses on two very different ideologies in a historically Republican district where Republican voter registration has maintained an edge.
Assembly District 74 – Leans Democrat In 2018, the Democrats picked up this seat from the Republicans with now incumbent Cottie Petrie-Norris. This is the only seat in the Assembly Democrats hold where they are outnumbered by Republican registered voters, making it one of their most vulnerable seats this cycle. Petrie-Norrie is a moderate Democrat with a heavy campaign war chest and received high marks from Howard Jarvis along with support from law enforcement. The Republican challenger, Newport Beach City Councilmember Diane Dixon, is focusing on the incumbent’s vote for independent contractor legislation and is riling up the district’s Republican base.
Assembly District 77 – Leans Democrat Incumbent Brian Maienschein, who switched parties from Republican to Democrat after he won his 2018 re-election faces a challenger form Republican June Yang Cutter, who is an employment law litigator and has never held elected office. Republicans want this seat back but given the lack of name recognition with their candidate and dismal cash on hand compared to the incumbent’s hefty campaign war chest, this will be an uphill battle.
Senate District 21 – Toss-up Moderate Republican incumbent Scott Wilk is facing a formidable challenge from Democrat Kipp Mueller, a young labor lawyer who has never held elected office with the backing of organized labor. Wilk has a slight cash advantage, but the Mueller has outraised him this year. This will be one of the main Senate races to watch.
Senate District 29 – Toss-up Probably the most watched Senate race this year, this is a rematch between incumbent Republican Ling Ling Chang and former Senator Josh Newman. Newman was previously recalled in 2018 ostensibly over his vote for a gas tax and Chang, who in 2016 lost the race for the Senate seat, won the recall election to take his place. The money race is tight, and Newman has raised and spent heavily, but Chang is staying competitive in that regard. This will be a close race.
Senate District 37 – Leans Democrat Republican John Moorlach is known to be a fiscal hawk, which resonates with the district, but given the political climate and national politics this race has shifted beyond district issues. Democratic challenger Dave Min has unsuccessfully run for the local congressional seat and a mayorship but poses a formidable challenge with deep pockets and tying the incumbent Moorlach to divisive national issues.
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