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Pwc Deals Global Metals Deals Insights Q3 2018

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Pwc Deals Global Metals Deals Insights Q3 2018 PwC Deals Global Metals Deals Insights Q3 2018 M&A activity gaining back momentum, primarily driven by strategic investors Executive summary Despite lower deal volume, total deal value increased by 78% this “Despite headwinds caused by global quarter when compared to Q2 2018. The increase in deal value trade tension and increasing interest was headlined by a $6.1 billion merger in the gold mining space. Transactions were also impacted by the rise in demand of metals rates, cash-rich corporations with such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel, as government initiatives to strategic rationales are likely to drive promote electric vehicles intensifies globally. deal activity for the rest of 2018 and The ongoing US steel and aluminum tariff issues have led foreign into 2019.” businesses to begin targeting inbound M&A in the US in order to set up direct operations. Meanwhile, China’s supply-side reform to manage overcapacity in steel production and the closure of lower- Brian Kelly end induction furnaces, are acting as headwinds for deal activity to US Metals Deals Leader add upgraded capacity in the region. PwC Strategic buyers drove deal activity despite low expected returns. And, with an aim for portfolio reorganization, major players targeted industry consolidation leading to increased transactions within country borders. Overall, M&A activity is likely to strengthen in 2019 as long as the larger global economies continue to experience relatively steady growth, particularly if global disputes begin to settle. Trends and highlights Q3 2018 Q3 2018 Q3 2018 versus versus • Deal value in Q3 2018 was $16.1 billion, 78% greater than last Q3 2017 Q2 2018 quarter. Deal volume witnessed a quarter-over-quarter decline of Total deal value 9% to 124 deals this quarter, and decreased 27% versus Q3 2017. 179% 78% • Average deal size increased by 78% to $223.2 million this quarter, $16.1B and improved considerably by 238% compared to Q3 2017. Total deal volume • The largest deal of the quarter was the announced $6.1 billion acquisition of Randgold Resources Ltd., by Barrick Gold 27% 9% Corporation. 124 • North America, along with the Asia and Oceania region, led a Average deal size majority of the sector’s deal volume and value. $223.2M 238% 78% Source: Thomson Reuters and other publicly available sources Highlights of Q3 2018 deal activity Deal activity Total deal value and volume 20 250 Deal value in Q3 2018 was $16.1 billion, 78% greater than last 18 208 209 205 quarter and a 179% increase from Q3 2017. Deal volume 16 200 175 168 171 decreased by 9% to 124 deals from last quarter, which may 14 170 157 144 12 131 136 150 indicate that trade tensions continue to be a headwind for M&A 124 10 transactions. The average deal size increased quarterly by 78% $18 volume Deal 8 $16 100 to $223.2 million, and grew 238% compared to Q3 2017. Deal value ($bn) value Deal 6 $12 $9 $10 $10 $9 4 $8 $8 50 $6 $6 2 $5 0 0 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Largest transaction 4Q15 Disclosed deal value Deal volume (R-Axis) In September 2018, Canada’s Barrick Gold Corporation agreed to acquire the London-listed Randgold Resources Ltd. for $6.1 Deals by disclosed value billion. Barrick’s primary focus is to create a global gold mining 250 350 entity in Africa and the Americas. The deal results in Barrick’s 310 shareholders owning about two-thirds of the combined entity. 200 270 $223 230 150 190 150 100 $187 $153 Deal volume Deal $125 110 Megadeals* $122 $109 $105 70 50 $81 $88 $66 $73 There was one megadeal in the quarter. As noted above, the $56 30 sector saw the largest gold deal in three years, as Barrick Gold 0 -10 Average disclosed deal value ($mn) value deal disclosed Average 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Corp. announced the acquisition of Randgold Resources Ltd. 4Q15 for $6.1 billion to create a gold producer worth $18 billion. The Undisclosed <$50 mn $50 mn to $250 mn $250 mn to $1,000 mn other significant deal in the quarter was Novelis Inc.’s announced acquisition of Aleris Corporation for $2.6 billion. Source: Thomson Reuters and other publicly available sources Sector category analysis Deal value of Steel and Aluminum declined by 22% and 81%, respectively, over the last quarter. The value of Other Metals increased significantly from $1.8 billion in Q2 2018 to $10.8 billion this quarter due to the Barrick Gold–Randgold deal. Deal activity in Steel and Other Metals declined by 8% and 19%, respectively, over the previous quarter while Aluminum and Iron Ore improved by 20% and 7%, respectively. Steel Aluminum Iron Ore Other Metals 100000 Deal value ($M) 10000 1000 100 10 120 Deal volume 100 80 60 40 20 0 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Source: Thomson Reuters and other publicly available sources *Megadeals are defined as deals with disclosed value equal to or greater than $5 billion USD. PwC Deals Global Metals Deals Insights Q3 2018 2 PwC Deals PwC continued their conservative stance, and and stance, their conservative continued continued investors Strategic Financial vs. strategic investors Investor and regional deal trends in deal trends and regional Investor value in this quarter. quarter. this in value sector, 12 c volume deal in dominance the maintained Oceania and Asia but 58%, with value terms in of deal the quarter led America North Regional analysis Source: ThomsonReuters 100 150 Source:Thomson Reuters 50 10 12 14 16 18 0 8 0 2 4 6 Share of region dealvolumeShare of byacquirer Global Metals Deals InsightsGlobal Q3 Metals 2018 Deals quarters, as it accounted for 57% of acquisitions made. China made. China of acquisitions for 57% as it accounted quarters, 100% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% Deal value ($B) value Deal Deal volume Deal followed by the by followed 4Q15 108 4.4 UK and Eurozone Asia and Oceania 1Q16 4Q15 59% 96 6.2 2Q16 100 3.7 1Q16 59% 3Q16 87 7.8 investors Strategic 2Q16 55% In terms 4Q16 121 8.5 US andother publicly available sources andother publicly available 1Q17 82 6.8 3Q16 50% . The UK and Eurozone region regained the leading position as favored position the leading regained region Eurozone UKand The 2Q17 89 2.0 to be dominant, dominant, be to of deal of deal 3Q17 4Q16 56% 94 3.4 Europe ex-UK and Eurozone North America 4Q17 113 4.5 1Q17 49% volume, 1Q18 122 16.4 2Q18 7.4 are 2Q17 49% 90 3Q18 14.8 80 from initiating to refrain expected the Asia and Oceania region maintained maintained region Oceania and Asia the and accounted for the accounted and sources 3Q17 56% 4Q17 49% 4Q15 67 1.8 1Q16 61 3.1 Africa/Undisclosed South America 1Q18 54% 2Q16 70 3.9 2Q18 55% 3Q16 44 1.9 investors Financial remained the leading acquirer nation nation acquirer the leading remained 4Q16 87 3.0 3Q18 57% 1Q17 86 2.8 92% 2Q17 55 2.8 of deal value and and value of deal 3Q17 77 2.3 Q3 3.4 near the sector in thein deals major Share of deal value by acquirer region by dealvalueacquirer Share of 4Q17 96 100% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% 1Q18 83 1.3 UK and Eurozone Asia and Oceania 2Q18 46 1.6 2018 its 4Q15 58% 3Q18 44 1.2 significance as a target with 56% share. 56% a target with as significance 65% 1Q16 89% Financial investor investor Financial 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% of deal volume this quarter. Financial buyers buyers Financial quarter. this volume of deal 2Q16 86% 0% target 3Q16 78% the with 4Q15 after five quarters, with 58% of deal of deal 58% with after five quarters, Europe ex-UK and Eurozone North America 1Q16 4Q16 69% totalvolume buyerFinancial shareof totalvalue buyerFinancial shareof 2Q16 1Q17 48% of domestic majority 3Q16 s hare of M&A activity of M&A hare - 4Q16 term. 2Q17 45% 1Q17 3Q17 57% 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 59% ons 4Q17 Africa/Undisclosed South America 1Q18 88% deals in in deals ecutively for ecutively 1Q18 2Q18 2Q18 85% 35% 3Q18 8% 3Q18 27% the 3 Global Metals Deals Insights Q3 2018 Regional analysis (continued) Share of disclosed deal volume by target region Share of disclosed deal value by target region 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 58% 89% 86% 78% 47% 73% 47% 58% 57% 88% 78% 27% 61% 57% 52% 50% 52% 49% 50% 56% 50% 52% 55% 56% 0% 0% 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Asia and Oceania North America South America Asia and Oceania North America South America UK and Eurozone Europe ex-UK and Eurozone Africa/Undisclosed UK and Eurozone Europe ex-UK and Eurozone Africa/Undisclosed Source: Thomson Reuters and other publicly available sources Metals deals by region UK and Eurozone Local: 58 deals, $2.06 billion Inbound: 22 deals, $6.30 billion North America Outbound: 20 deals, $39.96 million Asia and Oceania Local: 55 deals, $4.74 billion Local: 240 deals, $26.87 billion Inbound: 24 deals, $688.87 million Europe ex-UK and Eurozone Inbound: 12 deals, $111.31 million Outbound: 15 deals, $6.16 billion Local: 19 deals, $312.43 million Outbound: 17 deals, $843.05 million Inbound: 17 deals, $23.23 million Outbound: 9 deals, $42.15 million Africa/Undisclosed Local: 6 deals, $1.67 billion Inbound: 5 deals, $0.33 million Outbound: 22 deals, $30.83 million South America Local: 4 deals, $40 million Inbound: 3 deals, $0 million Outbound: 0 deals, $0 Source: Thomson Reuters and other publicly available sources Metals deals outlook Deal value in the Metals sector recovered in Q3 2018 compared to the This would perhaps prompt investors to expand business by acquiring previous quarter (although deal volume in Q3 2018 was the lowest of the struggling North American rivals.
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