Intellectual Capital: Software innovation and its role in national economies
Gio Wiederhold Stanford University, Stanford CA http://i.stanford.edu/~gio
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 1 Abstract Software has invaded all aspects of our world. It can no longer just be viewed as a fascinating technology. Software, and the products that depend on it, from watches to aircraft, social interactions, and sharing services, comprise a large fraction of modern commerce. The creators and the intellectual property they generate, exploit, and maintain comprise the intellectual capital of our hidh-technology industry, an asset that competes with the financial capital that traditional manufacturing industries rely on. I will present the flow of innovation into our national economics. Rights to profit from intellectual property are poorly documented and are easily transferred among countries. The importance of our intellectual capital is underestimated by economists and planners because the `Big Data’ they access is primarily from financial-oriented sources. As result, governmental policies to improve economic activity and the welfare of its people are often naïve and sometimes wrong. In this world computing experts have roles beyond the base technology. 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 2 Gio’s Bio
Gio Wiederhold was born in Italy, educated in Germany and The Netherlands, moving to the US in 1958. He started with numerical computing at SADTC in Holland and adapted his efforts as computing technology progressed into more areas. Gio obtained a PhD in 1976 and became a professor at Stanford University. During a three- year assignment at DARPA he initiated the Digital Library program, funding research that led, among others, to Google. After his formal retirement in 2001 he is serving as a government consultant on issues of software exports and their value. In 2011 Gio received an honorary DSc from the National University of Ireland in Galway. He stopped offering courses at Stanford in 2014. He has authored and coauthored 6 books on diverse topics and over 300 reports and papers and supervised 36 PhD theses. Many more details are at http://i.stanford.edu/~gio.
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 3 Topics
1. Motivation & definitions 2. Intellectual capital and intellectual property (IP). 3. Value and sketch of valuation a. (Valuation based on expected income) b. IP generation: R&D and Marketing c. (Putting it all together in a simple business model.) 4. Income and allocation 5. Separation of IP rights from the property itself. 6. IP flow and IP rights flow. 7. IP data for valid economic models 8. Summary.
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 4 The value of Motivation Computing
1. Software producers traditionally care about – Cost of writing software – Time to complete products – Capabilities 2. When the value is a concern life – Business people – Economists – Lawyers inconsistent – Promoters
55. A LISP programmer knows the value of everything, but the cost of nothing. [A.Perlis]]
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 5 Definitions Intangibles ( IP)
Product of knowledge by Cost of original >> cost of copies 1. Books authors 2. Software programmers 3. Inventions engineers 4. Trademarks advertisers 5. Knowhow managers 6. Customer loyalty – Interacts with long-term quality
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 6 Definitions Intellectual Capital
Assets of
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 7 High-Tech Industry Definitions Economic Loop
Taxes Profits Commodity Products Common Knowledge Public Inte- High-value Know-how gration & HTI’s . of HTI’s Products: Private Intel- .workforce Tech - Invest - nology Maniacs lectual .IP: HTI’s ments Intellectual Capital . Trade - Property marks
Taxes Profits non-routine
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 8 Value in a business Value water + sugar + IP
`It’s one thing to sell Coke and another thing to sell the formula for Coke’ [Jay Flatley of Illumina] But you must make and sell Coke to profit from its formula. A commodity bottler makes the Coke for you. Where is the value? Who gets what profits?
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 9 Value in a business Value gadgets + firmware
`It’s one thing to sell iPhones and another thing to sell the embedded firmware’ [Jay Flatley of Illumina] paraphrased
But you must sell iPhones to profit from the existence of the code in all those many chips. You design it, write, buy and integrate soft-and firmware usingSoftware A contractor builds the phones for you. A store sells the phones or plans that use it for you. Where is the value? What is an iPhone without Software ? Who gets what profits?
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 10 Value in a business Value apps = software
`It’s one thing to sell iPhone apps and another thing to sell the program codes’ [Jay Flatley of Illumina] paraphrased But you must monetize the software to profit from its existence. You or a distributor sells the software for you. Free + ads Where is the value? Fremium (free + $ for better) Who gets what profits? A price that allows quick decision-making
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 11 Value in a business Value enterprise software
`It’s one thing to build commercial SW and another thing to exploit that software in your business’ [Jay Flatley of Illumina] paraphrased
But you must sell build enterprise SW to distinguish your business from all of your competitors. Your people or a contractor builds the SW for you. Your business depends on it. FedEx = Planes, trucks, & SW Banks = ATMs, managers, & SW Where is the value? Clinics: MDs, staff, medicines, & SW DoD = Soldiers, generals, guns etc, & SW Who gets what profits? Dept.stores: sales staff , buyers, inventory & GM: Designers & SW + marketeers & SW + plants & SW 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 12 Value Tangibles / Intangibles
In a business 3 parts have value (contribute to profit) 1. Tangible goods: buildings, computers, capital 2. Know-how of management & employees 3. Intellectual property: Designs, software, methods, trademarks, etc.
2. & 3. make up the Intangible Capital of a company. If owned then it is Intellectual Property or Intangible Property similar – distinction is source vs ownership 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 13 Principle of valuation Valuation
The value of an asset is the sum of all future income discounted to today (NPV) In a public company implicitly estimated by shareholders through the market cap Example: Market Cap value of a company (SAP, 2005) Largely intangible – like many modern enterprises Market cap = share price × no. of shares €31.5B 100% Bookvalue = sum of all tangible assets € 6.3B 20% Equipment, buildings, cash Intangible value per stock market €25.2B 80% Intangible/tangible = 4 x How much of the value is due to software at SAP ? 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 14 Approaches to assess IP Valuation L $
• Technical alternatives 1. Income Prediction time Based on expected salesi * Lag + diminishing IP LifeL+i 2. R&D Roll-over ×1.? Based on experience of effectiveness of ∫ R&D from past investments m = 1.2 to 10 • Broader alternative approaches 3. Market Capitalization (Market Cap) Covers everything the shareholders value 4. Comparisons with another existing businesses Find other companies based on industry, operational similarity and then check their performance based on ratios as: margins, royalties gathered, costs/earnings, . . .
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 15 Software is not stable (Valuation) ongoing IP generation • Corrective maintenance – Feedback through error reporting mechanisms • Taking care of bugs and missed cases, conditions • Complete inadequate tables and dimensions • Adaptive maintenance – Staff to monitor externally imposed changes • Compliance with new standards • Technological advances • Keeping with viruses, spam etc. Effort depends on number & volatility of external interfaces • Perfective maintenance – Feedback through sales & marketing staff • Minor features that cannot be charged for
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 16 Maintenance → (Valuation) SW Growth
Best Rule: V = V + V [see references] New software diminishes n+1 n 1 the value of prior software + Deletion of prior code = 5% per year Income is due to old+new software
at 1.5 year / version
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 17 Growth diminishes (Valuation) prior IP
For constant unit price Same price
≈ effort X 5%
at 1.5 year / version
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 18 Lag delays benefits (Valuation) of R&D investments Estimate effective lag .
growth limit
~37% →
→
@27.4% →
~14% → Testing Effort Effort growth limit Development Research 35%→
start 75% 50% 25% done
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 19 Gestation period → Income Two sources of profits
1% - 8% of sales Common Knowledge Commodity Products
Know-how of Intel- . workforce High-value lectual . Intellectual Products: Capital . Property
20% - 60% of sales
5/29/2016 Profits Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 20 Future income has less Income value: Discounting
• Standard economic accounting principle Getting €1 next year is less valuable than getting €1 today. 1. If no risk of getting it later, discount by available interest rate • Say 4%, 1-year off is 1/1.04 = €0.962, 5-year is €0.822, 15 year only €0.555 • Formally, use government bonds rates for that period 2. If there is a risk - likely in business – use risk experience • Say 15%+4%: 1-year is €0.84, 5-year is €0.42, 15 year only €0.074 • Tables per industry are available (at a price), based on past experience Discounting has a large effect on income estimates
Makes looking into the future less risky
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 21 Marketing also Income generates IP
Business model must allocate spending of income [Pareto] optimally to Technology, as needed, long life and lag & Marketing, necessary, less lag, slower growth • Mix of product ( <1 year ) & brand (7 years) advertising • Interdependence viral – Consistent – Relevant – Linked by a common name and label – Honest name for file software misled: FLASH for flexible, but it wasn’t fast
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 22 (Income) Pareto Optimality (not Pareto Efficiency : 80/20 rule)
The point were any change lowers the total benefit/cost • Spending more on software will allow less benefit than spending on other stuff – People (technical and marketing) – Hardware 1870 startup: Rome Railway Co. – Advertising • For large 10 IT companies the average value allocated to their brand name is 22% (BW survey).
• If a company is managed optimally, we can allocate benefits of spending to Income by multi-year spending patterns
1. simple total Σi costi , for i = n .. 0 i 2. Exponential diminishing Σi 80% x costi , for i = n .. 0, 20% annual loss
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 23 Capital spending on IP (Income) creates more IP and Income
Spending on IP creates more income
Income
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 24 Collecting income Income from product
• Direct Sales of product – Build sales organization • If not good or fast, loose to competitors • Contract product sales to existing organization – Find complementary sales organization • Mutual benefits, risks, requires contracts • Royalties – get paid based on sales of product – Splits risk, – Can be applied just to IP rights
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 25 Rights can be sold Shifting Rights are intangible
rents Truvia EuZb EuZb1 Converts to Formal owner Owner partial tenancy Formal tenant • Selling rights converts future income to cash • Rights can be partial tranches: %tage, by location, …. • The rights owner can be a subsidiary of the original owner – the combination saves taxes, invisibly • Rights to IP generate most high-tech income. 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 26
tangibles Rights convert anything (Shifting) into intangibles
1. A company, EuZb, needs cash. It owns a splendid HQ building: Eurotower 2. EuZb sells rights to its HQ building to a real-estate enterprise Triuva with a provision that the Triuva will lease the building back to HTco. 3. If EuZb has received a fair value for the building, EuZb's total tangibles remain unchanged until it spends the money it received. Triuva may offer an attractive lease due to real estate tax advantages.. [Barsch&Wasserman, Spiegel 21, 2016] 4. Actually, a TriuZb can be set up by EuZb and controlled by EuZb. 5. Nobody moves and few employees will notice a change. o There is a new brass plaque on the building o A sign `TriuZb' on the door to the rooms housing the folk who maintain the HQ. o The public consolidated annual report of EuZb only lists the name and location of the controlled subcorporation TriuZb; the assets of both are combined. 6. Since the lease receipts at TriuZb and payments by EuZb are similar, the more complex financial flow is invisible. 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 27 Collecting income (Income) from IP alone
Let others make the product, just sell the IP • Direct Sale of IP – There will be expectations for maintenance • Contract IP delivery to existing organization – Find complementary manufacturing organization • Mutual benefits, risks, requires contracts • Royalties – on sales of IP-based product – Splits risk, – Can be applied just to IP rights, IP and intellectual capital (documents, people) stays where it is created and used
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 28 Rights can be offshore Shifting hiding income
PalmZB
IrishZB
EuZb profit mail Subsidiary Creator Develops IP acquires IP rights Formal owner • If the rights owner is off-shore, collected income can avoid taxes. • The rights owner is a subsidiary of the IP creator • Issue now being addressed poorly – by the EU 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 29
Internal sale Shifting for intangibles Procedure functionally identical to tangible example, but • Even less visible IP transactions are harder to value than buildings • IP is a huge fraction of High-tech corporate value • The consumers of the IP are the sales organizations World wide, most are controlled subsidiaries • Tax avoidance involves three or more entities 1. Parent company, creator or sponsor of IP generation Creates and maintains the IP 2. IP holding company, often in a tax haven Buys IP initially and pays for its maintenance. Licenses its use. 3. IP consumer: selling company Buys license to use the IP in products it sells, pays royalty to IP holder • International IP generators ↔ International IP consumers 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 30
IP and income flow in Income & IP High-technology Technical IP Development, testing Investment Design & Primary and at Subs validation Marketing IP manufacturing, CD creation Investment distribution Internet
Sales at source Remote product Sales Income at source Remote income
Income is taxed Hard to tax Whose income is it ?
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 31 National Effect on Economics National Economies Shifting of IP rights causes loss of tax revenues All high-tech companies do it a. Have to keep up with the competition b. Being multinational, no loyalty concerns c. Their employees are not aware of what goes on Tax authorities can’t measure it a. IP and creative people assets are not reported b. Tax authorities are national, can only go further if fraud is shown
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 32 National Economics Imbalanced Data
• Investors do value companies with IP & staff, albeit imprecisely • Accountants insist in precision in business, and hence their rules ignore IP • Think tanks aggregate such business data • Economists build models with imbalanced data, and give (now) misleading advice • Governments act on misleading advice
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 33 National Economics How to grow
Invest to improving national economies 1. Lower interest rates increases financial capital Great for traditional industries Easy to measure and monitor by bureaucrats Modest lag, flow fairly well modeled by economists 2. Spending on Education and Research increases availability of intellectual capital Good for modern, knowledge driven industry Long lag, flow poorly understood by economists What is preferable? 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 34 Income & IP Summary
1. Flow of income from IP efforts is complex 2. Intellectual capital is poorly understood 3. It is less documented than financial capital 4. Profits from IP are efforts are easily hidden 5. Education and research support suffers Question: Should creators of HighTech IP get involved? (applies also to Pharma, Uber, AirB&B, finance, …)
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 35 Income & IP Let’s ignore the intangibles, we cannot measure them reliably.
Book value
IntangiblesIntangibles
5/29/2016 36 Gio WiederholdGio Wiederhold Germany VIC 2014 2016 Questions
The end! Question?
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 37 References
Gio Wiederhold: Valuing Intellectual Capital, Multinationals and Taxhavens; series Management for Professionals, Springer Verlag, New York , August 2013. Its extensive sources are listed at http://i.stanford.edu/VIC/allVICcitations.pdf . Gio W.: "Follow the Intellectual Property: How do Companies pay Programmers when they move the related IP rights to Offshore Taxhavens?"; Communications of the ACM (CACM), Vol.54 No.1, January 2011, pp.66-74. Gio W., Amar Gupta, and Erich Neuhold: "Offshoring and Transfer of Intellectual Property"; Information Resources Management Journal (IRMJ) Vol.23 No.1, Jan. 2010, pp.74-93. Gio W.: "What is Your Software Worth?"; CACM, Vol.49 No.9, Sept.2006, pp.65-75. Gio W.: “Unbalanced Data Leads to Obsolete Economic Advice”; Viewpoint, CACM, Jan 2016, Vol.59 No.1, pp.45-46. Aswath Damodaran: “Unlike the U.S. tax code, Apple is perfectly rational”; Financial Times, 7 May 2013. Mathias Bartsch and Andreas Wassermann: “Hochhaus steurerfree zu verkaufen’; Der Spiegel, no.21, May 2016, pp.38-39. Moshe Vardi: “Is information technology destroying the middle class?”; CACM, Vol. 58 No.2, Feb. 2015, p.5.
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 38 Questions Why now
Worrying about economics is a sign of a maturing field Phases: 1. Get new stuff to work 2. Getting adequate performance 3. Get it to be sufficiently reliable to be useful 4. Get it into routine production 5. Increase capacity 6. Make it safe 7. Make it affordable
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 39 Questions Who owns the Intellectual capital Not all intellectual capital is owned, or property as IP 1. Education: Services that transmit valuable, but non-proprietary knowledge to others. If receiver pays, certainly can take it anywhere If the state pays, can it / should it be reimbursed? Current question in Europe given free tuition to all comers. Now not. 2. Publication: IP placed into the public domain is no longer IP Who benefits? The reader gets knowledge / The writer gets fame Society becomes more egalitarian, effective • These 2 aspects can easily confuse IP discussions
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 40 Questions Why me US Treasury concern: • Much software is being exported as part of offshoring (offshore outsourcing) • It is typically property – i.e., protected • If it is not valued correctly – i.e., too low 1. Loss of income to the creators in the USA 2. And loss of taxes to the US treasury 3. Excessive profits kept in external taxhavens 4. Increased motivation for external investment • Experience: Valuing Intellectual Capital, 2013
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 41 Why worry? Questions No Motivation to change
• Not paying taxes is good for business • Everyone just likes to complain, and then they pay anyhow what is due • The government should take care of it, and plug the loopholes in the tax laws • Taxhaven countries should follow our rules • You can’t expect technology experts to help government to understand such complexities
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 42
Timing of expense Questions and income Manufacturing & distribution delay Distribution Release to Production ←→ to Sales
Sales
development lag ←─→ Centroid of → → Centroid of total revenue development cost .. Testing
Costs Costs ~60%→
Sales lag . Revenues Research, −−−−−−−−−−−−− Design, Implementation ← →
←→ marketing lag Development done → time → Marketing Centroid of pre- sales marketing costs Post-sales marketing,
part of investment: IGE part of sales cost: CoGS ← Costs ←
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 43 Questions Why Worry? Answers to Comments Comments: “It’s all perfectly legal” 1 Only after an initial misvaluation If brought back to the US then ~40% would be lost to taxes, too much 2 It’s less than 25% due to incentives but I propose an alternative (R20) The Tax Authorities are at fault, 3 Yes, but their hook is weak it let’s corporations off the hook Those loopholes should be plugged 4 It’s a process, not a hole Ireland should not have a 12.5% corporate tax rate 5 Ireland is 1. sovereign, and 2. has territorial taxation Just allocate taxable revenue to country by sales! 6 Assumes no imbalanced transfer of IP The comments were based on a lack of understanding
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 44 Example of IP flow in Questions the financial industry say: Global Investment Bank and a Taxhaven Investment Subsidiary Financial IP GIB Investment by GIB system Design & Programming experts Technical IP feedback and testing Investment by TIS later GIB finance Operations Operations Finance experts experts of GIB of TIS at TIS site
Service Sales at GIB ServiceService SalesSales by at LIS TIS Income at GIB Income at TIS Who profits ? What if TIS is WW on the Internet ?
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 45 Questions Symmetry
Exports and Transfers go both ways • There is innovation everywhere • If, say, the U.S. imports IP, the receiver should pay Basic and fundamental research in the U.S. is declining Growth was motivated by WW II experience [Vannevar Bush] Many countries now fund fundamental research The ratio of applied to basic research is increasing Industrial research is mainly applied Technological research is rarely basic Development requires more resources B F A D Industrial and management infrastructure Good in the U.S Demonstration and Beta sites - early adopters
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 46 EMEA Tax Flows distributor and adapter PFE distributor A US-based MNC * *¤ * Taxable income * LSA distributor
Manufacturing map from CIA Factbook * Booking of sales 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 47 ¤ Income from sales A US based MNC Tax Flows Avoiding taxation
IPrights CAAS¤ MNC EMEA * ¤ MNC PFE * ¤CONCH * MNC LSA MNC MY MNC JB
Manufacturing * Booking of sales ¤ Income from sales 5/29/2016 to taxhaven Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 48 Tax Flows Taxhavens Places where 1. Taxes are low 2. Financial and IP supervision is minimal
3. Reporting requirements are minimal Dutch sandwich • Three cooperating types are needed 1. Primary tax havens (about a dozen countries) Small populations, Can live largely of license fees . Cayman Islands,pop.50K, 90K companies @ 3000/year 2. Semi-taxhavens (more, but diverse) Large populations, need jobs Enact, often temporary, tax benefits for foreign work 3. Conduit taxhavens (few, small, financially active countries) trusted, separate taxhaven activities by ringfencing can shuffle funds invisible among locations
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 49 Forest Labs flow Tax Flows [from Business Week 14 May 2010] 0.0. InitialInitial transaction:transaction IPIP rightsrights transfertransfer Cost $5 toto BermudaBermuda $64 IP rights FFBV Forest FLI Labs.Research, FLI ($17+0.11 Irish tax) St. Louis, MO FLR “conduit” $76 FRX $99 6 $5 $7 a “taxhaven” FLH b 7 $2.38 US taxes for public use $50 available for new investment?
[Design Hermann Zschiegner]
$ estimates, based on article & the FRX 10-K filings, by Gio W.
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 50
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/lexapro.html Example Tax Flows http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20197710
Apple paid less than 2% corporation tax on its profits outside the US, its filing with US regulators has shown. The company paid $713m in the year to 29 September on foreign pre-tax profits of $36.8bn, 1.9%. It is the latest company to be identified as paying low rates of overseas tax, following Starbucks, Facebook and Google in recent weeks. It has not been suggested that any of their tax avoidance schemes are illegal. All of the companies pay considerable amounts of other taxes in the UK, such as National Insurance, and raise large sums of VAT. Apple's figures for foreign tax appear on page 61 of its form 10-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), used to summarize the performance of public companies. It had paid a rate of 2.5% the previous year. Apple channels much of its business in Europe through a subsidiary in the Republic of Ireland, which has lower corporation tax than Britain (12,5%)
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 51 Tax Flows Flow Semi-taxhaven
Malaysia, India
MNC California Conduit Holland
Need 3 types of taxhaven entities Primary I P
Palm Island 5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 52 US Corporate income QuestionsTax Flows $B $B 1500 W D $620B US total worldwide US corporate earnings available for 1400 sources → destinations corporate earnings corporate 1300 $1,550B /year dividends 1200 (less during 2008-2009) & investment 1100 in the U.S. 400 1000 1,250B from US tax paid on US R 300 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business- 900 domestic sources Corporate earnings US corporate 200 800 W - F 20197710 tax revenue $335B 100 $340B 700 0 U US-sourced 600 T earnings moved (100) $690B 500 abroad = $300B (200
400 (300)) F available in 300 taxhavens Earnings on $1,800B 200 income from foreign for corporate investment 100 sources = $400B
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold VIC 2014 53 Is there a solution? Tax Flows
I have a proposal (R20, pp.285 – 322 in my book), but it is politically unacceptable (1 & 2 here) • Abolish corporate taxation and tax all personal also dividends & individual income equally, capital gains. . That combination generates about the same tax revenue But 1. Liberals want to stick it to corporations 2. Rich folk don’t want to pay full taxes on their income, mainly dividends and capital gains.
5/29/2016 Gio Wiederhold Germany 2016 54 End of Shared Slides
More material in CS207 class notes https://cs.stanford.edu/wiki/cs207/
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