The Trade Demand Opportunity…

-- Raheem Mostert has requested a trade as of Wednesday 7/8/20…he took it public.

Bad…bad…bad move, for him…potentially.

Go back and re-read my Mostert-based outlook report from last week…and now things look 10x worse for him than I was warning. As with every dumb thing NFL players do…there’s a silver lining of fantasy opportunity for us.

It’s not that Mostert committed a crime by requesting a trade…that happens, but when it’s a guy, a journeyman (now on his 5th team) RB who is going to be 28+ years old who has had 2-3-4 good+ games in five NFL seasons is now going to act like he’s Derrick Henry…on a team that sees RBs as interchangeable parts (as they are, see: just given away by this organization) and a head coach who loves the RBBC strategy (as they all should) so they don’t rely on one guy…when you try to make that management team blink, you might have just cost yourself a lot of money.

Mostert was set to make $3.2M this season…a guy who is a nonessential part of an RBBC…in an era where the 49ers will likely need to make some cap space before opening day and will also have to make hard cuts in 2021 if the salary cap numbers dive to COVID revenue shortfalls in 2020. The 49ers can cut or trade him for a $660K+ hit right now…thus saving $2.6M off the cap…and not worrying about the same issue next year, where he is set to make $3.5M next season (and be even easier to cut/trade for a $300K hit).

What leverage does Mostert have? If he is gone, the 49ers have more talented, more experienced Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon…plus holdover Jeff Wilson and two smart UDFA grabs in JaMycal Hasty and Salvon Ahmed. All of which are as capable as Mostert in various ways, but some not as experienced. The 49ers’ offense doesn’t change a bit in effectiveness or style without Mostert…plus, and will probably run the ball more than the #3 RB in this offense…and take away key touches from the #1-2 backs.

The 49ers were destined to have to cut or trade a running back pre-opening day…and Mostert may have just made their job very easy to choose who goes.

Where is Mostert going? What is the Mostert trade market? What team is desperate for a running back right now as it is? First off, no team is doing anything until they know there will be a season (which there should be, but you can’t be 100% on it today). Second, what team is trading assets and then paying a bigger contract renewal for Mostert in general?

The most money Mostert was going to make in his life was going to be 2020 season as-is, have a good season AND THEN try to renegotiate a better deal for 2021…not try and force the 49ers’ hand after a few good games in an RBBC last year, and in a pandemic-fear economy right now. If Mostert were just released today, he wouldn’t find a deal to pay him what he’s going to make this season (or next). I’m all for players trying to use leverage, especially RBs, but this was the worst attempt at a use of leverage in the absolute wrong time period on a team who absolutely devalues RBs. This Mostert misstep just boosted Tevin Coleman’s likelihood to be the Week 1 lead back (in an RBBC) in 2020…like he was more in 2019 than Mostert was. This just brought Jerick McKinnon into play as a potential instant #2 RB (in an RBBC) with Mostert dealt/cut…or just shoved back down the depth chart.

A Mostert-gone scenario also means either Jeff Wilson or Salvon Ahmed or JaMycal Hasty would be a key #3 RB…and maybe one of them making the roster as a #4 RB. Ahmed and Hasty will now get an extra bump in our Dynasty Rookie Draft valuations…their NFL-life just got a blip better.

Fantasy market change…

Stock down = Raheem Mostert…he owes a lot to Kyle Shanahan giving him a chance others in the league wouldn’t and he just breached that relationship. The odds he’s cut or traded/moved or just moved down to #2-3 in the RBBC just rose dramatically.

Stock up = Tevin Coleman…the #1 RB for the team we all want the #1 RB on for FF (with that great O- Line and offensive output) – and he’s trading as an RB3+.

Stock up = Jerick McKinnon…the window is opening for him to make a comeback and get real touches as a #2 back. For the low FF price, opportunity if knocking.

Stock up = Salvon Ahmed and/or JaMycal Hasty…one of them would have a real shot at a #3 RB role over Jeff Wilson if Mostert is moved out. I like Ahmed, but Hasty has a shot too.