Guide for Submissions: 0 Council Name Electoral Representation Review

Preliminary Report 2016 Casey City Council Subdivision Review

Monday 1 February 2016 Guide for Submissions: 0 {council name} Electoral Representation Review

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Contents

1 Summary of proposed changes 4 2 Review background 5 2.1 Legislative basis 5 2.2 Scope 5 2.3 The VEC’s approach 6 3 Review timeline 7 4 Current review 8 4.1 Council background 8 4.2 Proposed changes 10 5 Public involvement 12 5.1 Submissions 12 5.2 Public hearing 13 Appendix: Proposed ward boundaries map 14

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1 Summary of proposed changes

The Victorian Electoral Commission proposes adjustments to the boundaries of the following wards within Casey City Council:

 Balla Balla Ward

 Edrington Ward

 Mayfield Ward

 River Gum Ward.

Proposed ward boundaries are illustrated in the map in the Appendix.

2 Review background

2.1 Legislative basis The Local Government Act 1989 (the Act) requires the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) to conduct a subdivision review to ensure the equitable representation of all voters in a municipality.

A subdivision review considers adjustments to ward boundaries so that the number of voters represented by each councillor is within 10% of the average number of voters per councillor for the whole municipality. This is known as the ‘equality requirement’.

As population changes affect voter numbers and distribution in subdivided municipalities, one or more wards may be unlikely to meet this requirement at the next general election. A subdivision review considers adjustments to existing ward boundaries so the voter-to-councillor ratio in all wards meets the equality requirement.

Subdivision reviews only apply to subdivided councils:

 that are not scheduled for an electoral representation review before the next general election and

 where, two years before the council is to hold a general election, the VEC considers one or more wards are unlikely to meet the equality requirement at the time of the next general election.

The VEC notified the Minister for Local Government that Balla Balla Ward was unlikely to meet the equality requirement at the 2016 general election. The Minister then advised the VEC that a subdivision review of Casey City Council was required before the general election.

2.2 Scope A subdivision review only considers the location of ward boundaries. A subdivision review cannot consider changes to the number of councillors or wards.

These changes are considered in a council’s periodic electoral representation review. The next scheduled representation review for Casey City Council will be held before the 2024 general election. An earlier review may take place if required.

A subdivision review also cannot change the external boundaries of the municipality, divide municipalities, or amalgamate municipalities. These changes can only be made by an Order in Council.

2.3 The VEC’s approach

Developing proposed changes Proposed changes to ward boundaries are modelled using both population growth data provided by .id (Informed Decisions) Pty Ltd1, and voter statistics prepared by the VEC.

Where possible, models are developed using a ‘minimal change’ approach, so proposed changes affect as few voters as possible.

The VEC also considers the following factors in developing proposed changes:

 relevant issues identified in the council’s last representation review

 communities of interest

 geographic features

 means of transport and traffic routes and

 the likelihood of population changes before the next election.

Public involvement The VEC welcomes public feedback on the proposed changes, which is carefully considered when preparing the subdivision review final report. Public input is accepted via:

 written submissions to this preliminary report and

 a public hearing for people to speak about their submission.

Submissions are an important part of the process, but are not the only consideration during a review. The VEC ensures its recommendations are in compliance with the Act and are formed through careful consideration of public input, independent research, and analysis of all relevant factors.

1 .id is a company specialising in population and demographic analysis that builds suburb-level demographic information products in most jurisdictions in Australia and New Zealand. Page 7 of 18 2016 Casey City Council Subdivision Review Preliminary Report

3 Review timeline

Monday Subdivision review preliminary report released 1 February The VEC models ward boundary changes and presents the proposed changes in this report. The report is publicly available from the VEC by visiting vec.vic.gov.au or calling 131 832 and also for inspection at Council offices. Advertisements are also placed in the following newspapers notifying the public of the proposed changes:  Berwick Leader, Monday 1 February  Cranbourne Leader, Wednesday 3 February  Berwick News, Thursday 4 February  Cranbourne News, Thursday 4 February Submissions open The VEC accepts written submissions from the public at the release of the preliminary report. All submissions are carefully considered and taken into account before the subdivision review final report is released.

Wednesday Closing date for submissions 2 March Submissions must reach the VEC by 5.00 pm on this date.

Wednesday Public hearing 9 March A public hearing is scheduled to be held at 6.30 pm on Wednesday 9 March at the Old Shire Office, corner South Gippsland Highway and Sladen Street, Cranbourne. Members of the public who have nominated to discuss their submission will be given the opportunity to speak for up to 10 minutes. The hearing will not be held if there are no requests to speak.

Wednesday Subdivision review final report published 30 March Following the public hearing, the VEC considers all available evidence and publishes a final report with recommended changes to ward boundaries for the Minister for Local Government. The report is publicly available from the VEC and also for inspection at Council offices. If the recommendation is accepted, the modified ward boundaries will take effect at the October 2016 general election.

4 Current review

4.1 Council background

Council profile The City of Casey is located on south-eastern edge of the Greater Melbourne metropolitan area, between 28 and 60 kilometres from the Melbourne GPO. In terms of population, the City of Casey is the largest municipality in Victoria, with some 283,000 residents as at the end of 2014. The City is the third fastest growing municipality in Victoria.2

The City of Casey is demographically and socially diverse. The median age ranges from 30 in Cranbourne West and Lyndhurst to 42 in Cranbourne South and Devon Meadows. Some parts of the municipality, such as Endeavour Hills, Hallam and Hampton Park, contain high proportions of residents who speak languages other than English, while there are comparatively few non-English speakers in the rural areas. Household income, education levels, unemployment and other indicators of relative socio-economic advantage also vary widely across the municipality.

Broadly, the municipality falls into five zones:

 the semi-rural Dandenong Ranges foothills, including Lysterfield South, Narre Warren North and Harkaway

 the established suburbs, including Narre Warren, Berwick, Endeavour Hills, Doveton, Hallam and Hampton Park

 the growth area, including Cranbourne, Lynbrook, Lyndhurst and Narre Warren South

 the farm belt, including Devon Meadows, Pearcedale and Clyde

 the coastal villages, including Tooradin, Blind Bight and Warneet.

Although the municipality as a whole is growing rapidly, the rate of change differs in different areas. Some established suburbs and rural areas have stable populations, or are even predicted to decline slightly, such as Endeavour Hills. In contrast, Cranbourne East is projected to grow by 83.1 per cent between 2015 and 2031. The locality of Clyde North is scheduled for major development, and its population is forecast to grow from 706 at present to 12,116 by 2031.3

2 City of Casey website, downloaded 8 December 2015, http://www.casey.vic.gov.au/council/about- casey/demographics 3 Derived from City of Casey profile, http://profile.id.com.au/casey Page 9 of 18 2016 Casey City Council Subdivision Review Preliminary Report

Electoral structure Casey City Council currently consists of 11 councillors elected from five two-councillor wards and one single-councillor ward. In its 2012 electoral representation review, the VEC recommended retention of this structure (with modified ward boundaries), mainly because it best fitted geographic communities of interest. The VEC considered that the single-councillor Balla Balla Ward would ensure representation of the rural part of the municipality. The VEC recognised that this ward included part of the growth area, and accordingly recommended boundaries that set the ward’s enrolment as low as possible to maximise the period in which it would comply with the 10 per cent tolerance.

Diagram 1 details this structure and voter statistics by ward as at 8 December 2015.

Diagram 1: Casey City Council electoral structure and voter statistics.

Voter numbers Table 1 shows the number of voters in each ward as at 8 December 2015, ranked by the percentage this deviates from the average number of voters per councillor for the whole municipality.

Table 1: Voter numbers per ward (as at 8 December 2015) Ward Councillors Voters Deviation (%) Balla Balla 1 22,590 +30.29 Springfield 2 32,455 -6.41 Edrington 2 33,059 -4.67 Four Oaks 2 33,673 -2.90 River Gum 2 34,325 -1.01 Mayfield 2 34,621 -0.16 Total for municipality 11 190,723

Balla Balla Ward contains most of the development areas in the City of Casey. The ward’s enrolment has grown enormously, to more than 30 per cent above the average, and is projected to continue to rise rapidly. All the other wards are now below average.

4.2 Proposed changes The purpose of a subdivision review is to establish ward boundaries that will meet the equality requirement of the Act at the next general council election.4 As noted above, the VEC generally adopts a minimum change approach to subdivision reviews, focussing on ensuring that numbers enrolled for each ward will be within 10 per cent of the average at the coming election. In the City of Casey, where rapid and uneven growth has necessitated either a representation review or a subdivision review before each election over the past 10 years, it is particularly difficult to draw boundaries that will last for more than one election.

In the current review, voters have to be transferred out of Balla Balla Ward to ensure that the ward’s enrolment will be within the 10 per cent tolerance at the 2016 election. Consequently, changes are required to other wards.

The VEC proposes to transfer the entire locality of Clyde North out of Balla Balla Ward, with the currently rural area east of Berwick-Cranbourne Road going to Edrington Ward, and the developing strip west of that road being added to Mayfield Ward. The VEC also proposes to transfer the part of Cranbourne West (and a small section of Cranbourne South) west of Cranbourne-Frankston Road from Balla Balla Ward to Mayfield Ward. These changes would place Mayfield Ward above the 10 per cent tolerance, so the VEC has compensated for them by

4 Local Government Act 1989, section 219L. Page 11 of 18 2016 Casey City Council Subdivision Review Preliminary Report transferring Lyndhurst from Mayfield Ward to River Gum Ward. A total of 9,214 voters (4.83 per cent of the total) would be transferred from their current wards.

Under the proposed boundaries, enrolments for all wards are within the 10 per cent tolerance. The proposed boundaries allow for likely population changes in the short term. The main growth areas have been distributed among Balla Balla, Edrington and Mayfield Wards, and this dispersal of the growth areas extends the period in which the wards will comply with the equality requirement. The changed River Gum Ward’s enrolment is 9.57 per cent above the average, but this ward’s enrolment is likely to decline relative to the average.

The proposed ward boundaries are clearly identifiable, as they follow major roads. The proposed wards capture communities of interest. In the north, Lyndhurst has close links with Lynbrook, and is appropriately included in River Gum Ward. In the west, the changed boundary incorporates all of Cranbourne West in Mayfield Ward. In the east, the area west of Berwick-Cranbourne Road is immediately adjacent to Cranbourne East and fits logically in the Cranbourne-based Mayfield Ward. The large balance of Clyde North has been included as a whole in Edrington Ward. The proposed changes enhance the largely rural nature of Balla Balla Ward, which was established in the 2005 and 2012 reviews to ensure representation for the rural part of the municipality.

The proposed ward boundary changes are illustrated in the map in the Appendix.

5 Public involvement

5.1 Submissions Any person or group, including the Council, can make a submission to the VEC in response to the proposed ward boundary changes contained in this report.

The submission should clearly outline your views on the proposed changes.

Submissions are considered based on argument and evidence. The VEC does not make recommendations based on a ‘straw poll’ of the number of submissions supporting a particular point of view.

Making a submission Submissions can be made via:

 the online submission form at vec.vic.gov.au

 email at [email protected]

 post to:

Victorian Electoral Commission Level 11, 530 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000

 fax to (03) 9629 8632

Submissions must be received at the VEC by 5.00 pm on Wednesday 2 March.

The VEC can only accept submissions that include a full name, address and contact number.

Public access to submissions To ensure transparency in the subdivision review process, all submissions will be available for public inspection at:

 the VEC website at vec.vic.gov.au and

 the VEC office at Level 11, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne.

The VEC will remove personal information such as address, phone number, and signature, if applicable, from all public copies. However, the full name and locality of submitters will be displayed.

5.2 Public hearing Individuals or groups who have made a submission can speak at a public hearing. The public hearing is scheduled to be held at 6.30 pm on Wednesday 9 March at the Old Shire Office, corner South Gippsland Highway and Sladen Street, Cranbourne.

You must indicate in your response submission if you wish to speak at the public hearing. The hearing will not be held if there are no requests to speak.

Following the public hearing, the VEC considers all available evidence and publishes a final report with recommended changes to ward boundaries for the Minister for Local Government. The report is scheduled to be published on Wednesday 30 March.

If the recommendation is accepted, the modified ward boundaries will take effect at the October 2016 general election.

The final report will be available at vec.vic.gov.au or by calling 131 832 and also for inspection at the offices of Casey City Council.

Appendix: Proposed ward boundaries map

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Victorian Electoral Commission Level 11, 530 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000

131 832 [email protected]