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Del NAFTA Al T-MEC Del NAFTA al T-MEC - Oportunidad de internacionalización de la economía mexicana hacía otros mercados como el de “China y la Unión Europea” - Jonathan Bar-Hod Luca Jonas Noe Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana Administración Economía y Negocio Negocios Internacionales CALA Medellín 2020 Del NAFTA al T-MEC - Oportunidad de internacionalización de la economía mexicana hacía otros mercados como el de “China y la Unión Europea” - Jonathan Bar-Hod Luca Jonas Noe Trabajo de grado para optar al título de Negociador Internacional Asesor Carlos Alberto Montoya Corrales Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana Administración Economía y Negocio Negocios Internacionales CALA Medellín 2020 23 de mes julio del año 2020 Luca Jonas Noe “Declaro que este trabajo de grado no ha sido presentado con anterioridad para optar a un título, ya sea en igual forma o con variaciones, en ésta o en cualquiera otra universidad”. Art. 92, parágrafo, Régimen Estudiantil de Formación Avanzada. Firma 1 23 de mes julio del año 2020 Jonathan Bar-Hod “Declaro que este trabajo de grado no ha sido presentado con anterioridad para optar a un título, ya sea en igual forma o con variaciones, en ésta o en cualquiera otra universidad”. Art. 92, parágrafo, Régimen Estudiantil de Formación Avanzada. Firma 2 Contenido Introducción .................................................................................................................................. 5 Antecedentes ............................................................................................................................ 5 Planteamiento del problema .................................................................................................... 7 Objetivos ................................................................................................................................. 10 Justificación ............................................................................................................................. 11 Hipótesis ................................................................................................................................. 12 Metodología ............................................................................................................................ 13 Marco teórico.............................................................................................................................. 15 Marco histórico ....................................................................................................................... 15 Estados Unidos .................................................................................................................... 15 China ................................................................................................................................... 18 Estados Unidos y México .................................................................................................... 22 Economía y Comercio Exterior ................................................................................................ 26 Estado Unidos ..................................................................................................................... 26 China ................................................................................................................................... 33 México ................................................................................................................................. 40 Situación política ..................................................................................................................... 48 Estados Unidos .................................................................................................................... 48 China ................................................................................................................................... 52 México ................................................................................................................................. 56 Estructura económica ............................................................................................................. 58 Acuerdos existentes y alternativas potenciales – Análisis de un sector clave............................ 72 Balance comercial del TLCAN .................................................................................................. 72 Renegociación del TLCAN (T-MEC).......................................................................................... 74 El sector automotriz mexicano ............................................................................................... 76 T-MEC ...................................................................................................................................... 83 Relación comercial entre China y México ............................................................................... 84 TLC entre México y la UE ........................................................................................................ 94 Resumen ................................................................................................................................... 105 Conclusiones ............................................................................................................................. 108 Bibliografía ................................................................................................................................ 112 Anexos ....................................................................................................................................... 125 3 Lista de Figuras Figura 1: Comparativa flujos de bienes China Estados Unidos Figura 2: Estados Unidos – Top 5 de exportaciones Figura 3: Estados Unidos – Top 5 de importaciones Figura 4: China – Top 5 de exportación Figura 5: China – Top 5 de importación Figura 6: Distribución de empleados activos en sectores económicos Figura 7: Participación de los sectores económicos en el producto interno bruto Figura 8: México – Top 5 de exportaciones Figura 9: México – Top 5 de importaciones Figura 10: Estados Unidos Déficit en el comercio bilateral de bienes 2017 Figura 11: China. Crecimiento del PIB Figura 12: IED México Estados Unidos Figura 13: Comercio entre China y México Figura 14: Inversión China en México Figura 15: Principales sectores receptoras de la IED de China en México Figura 16: Vehículos ligeros México Figura 17: porcentaje del PIB de la industria automotriz respecto al PIB nacional Figura 18: % del PIB de sector automotriz respecto al PIB de industria manufacturera Figura 19: Europa – Exportaciones hacia México e importaciones de México Figura 20: Bienes más comercializados entre México y UE Figura 21: Comercio de México con la UE: sector de coches ligeros Figura 22: Comercio de México con la UE – Sector hidrocarburos 4 Resumen Durante el análisis realizado en este trabajo se fue definiendo el hecho de que México logró desarrollarse de un país marcado por la conquista, guerras y revoluciones, hacia una nación que es reconocida mundialmente por su economía y sobre todo por su buque insignia, el sector automotriz. Para poder realizar aquella transformación, México gozaba de los beneficios que le fueron facilitados por la apertura del mercado, entrelazamiento internacional mediante tratados de libre comercio y la proximidad hacia Estados Unidos. El T-MEC (Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá), anteriormente llamado TLCAN, formó la base necesaria para que México pudiera estabilizar su situación interna en los 90´s, acelerado el crecimiento económico, abriendo su mercado y estableciéndose así en el orden mundial. Además, al dar el paso de apertura, México empezó a obtener sus primeras experiencias en el proceso de internacionalización y competitividad global, viéndose expuesto al mercado mundial altamente competitivo. El comercio estrecho entre México, EE. UU. y Canadá brindó a cada integrante un sinfín de beneficios, gracias a los cuales las economías florecieron y los países se desarrollaron continuamente. Hoy en día México cuenta con más de 27 empresas globales que buscaron instalarse en el territorio mexicano, aprovechando de tal forma la ubicación geográficamente estratégica con el acceso directo a rutas de transporte terrestres tanto hacia Estados Unidos o América Latina, como vías marítimas para exportar a Asia o Europa. Entre los numerosos tratados de libre comercio de México destacan indudablemente el T-MEC (antes NAFTA) como promovedor económico, el TLC con la Unión Europea por sus acuerdos mutuamente satisfactorios y el Acuerdo de Asociación Económica con Japón como un modelo posible para profundizar las relaciones comerciales con China. 5 Introducción Antecedentes Transcurridos más de veinte años, el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN) que involucra a Estados Unidos, México y Canadá, siguió siendo objeto de intensos debates incluso después de su entrada en vigor en 1994. El presidente Donald Trump ya demostró su aversión al acuerdo durante la campaña electoral. En mayo de 2017, la Administración Trump informó al Congreso de los Estados Unidos que deseaba entablar renegociaciones sobre el TLCAN. A raíz de la presión de los Estados Unidos, las primeras reuniones para la revisión del acuerdo entre las partes contratantes del TLCAN tuvieron lugar el 16 de agosto de 2017. El cual fue fundamentado con la Autoridad para la Promoción del Comercio (APC)1 que se prorrogó hasta el 1° de julio de 2018 durante el mandato del predecesor
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