Reasons for Concern” (about Climate Change) in the United States
Electronic Supplemental Material
December 11, 2009
Gary Yohe
Woodhouse/Sysco Professor of Economics 238 Church Street Wesleyan University Middletown, CT 06459 USA
Phone: 860-685-3658 Mobile: 860-803-8670 E-mail: [email protected] Table 1: Selected Evidence of Risk in Support of the United States “Reasons for Concern”. Selected evidence is drawn from existing literature, but it is not intended to be comprehensive. Numbers listed after the colons in the NSTC and CCSP references are page numbers; numbers listed after the colons in the USGCRP references are page numbers in the “Highlights” section of that document.
Panel A: Drought events are already a frequent occurrence, especially in NSTC (2008:127) the western United States. USGCRP (2009:12); Risk of Field et al. (2007) Extreme Weather A tendency for drying in mid-continental areas during the NSTC (2008:94); Events summer due to higher temperatures is projected. Extreme USGCRP (2009:12); drought increases from 1% of present-day global land area to Meehl et al. (2007); 30% by the end of the century along A2 (though US is shown Burke et al. (2006); drying – Burke, et al. (2006)- pg 1122); for U.S. in the mid- Strzepek, et al. (2009) century timeframe, significant increases in southwestern, far- western, and mid-continent regions with decreases in the northeast.
In the last three decades, the wildfire season in the western NSTC (2008:141 & United States has lengthened and burn durations have increased. Sect. V.1.c); USGCRP Climate change has very likely increased the size and number of (2009:12); Field et al. insect outbreaks and tree mortality that help to fuel wildfires in (2007) the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska. These trends are very likely to continue.
Precipitation is likely to be less frequent but more intense across NSTC (2008:165); North America, and precipitation extremes are very likely to USGCRP (2009:14); increase; New York City is an example. Field et al. (2007); NPCC (2009)
Insects and pathogens affect more area annually than any other NSTC (2008:142) ; disturbance event. Outbreaks are estimated to result in $1.5 USGCRP (2009:12); billion annually in losses to U.S. forest ecosystems. For Taylor et al. (2006); example, two mountain pine beetle outbreaks affected more than Ryan et al. (2008); Berg 10 million hectares (Mha) of forest in British Columbia and et al. (2006); Breshears another 267,000 ha in Colorado. More than 1.5 Mha of forest et al. (2005) was attacked by spruce beetle in southern Alaska and western Canada.. Greater than 1.2 Mha of pinyon pine mortality occurred because of extreme drought, coupled with an ips beetle outbreak in the Southwest.
Increase in the frequency of coastal storm flooding anomalies Kirshen et al. (2008); mid-century and accelerating with sea level rise; calibrated NPCC (2009); projections for northeast coastal urban areas. USGCRP (2009:15) Annuitized value of the discounted value of damages from Mendelsohn, et al. hurricanes in the United States along median climate futures (2009) range from $2bn to nearly $10bn per year,
Panel B: In Alaska, indigenous communities, particularly on coastal or NSTC (2008:13 & Sect. river boundaries, face economic and cultural impacts driven by V.5; ACIA (2004); Risk to changes in species ranges, reduced weather predictability, Larsen et al. (2007); Unique and flooding events, and thawing ground. Public infrastructure at Anisimov et al. (2007); Threatened risk from climate change by 2080 is estimated in the tens of USGCRP (2009:12) Systems billions of current dollars. Stewart et al. (2005); Observed changes in snowmelt patterns across the western USGCRP (2009:12) United States; the timing of run-off there is essential for efficient water management infrasture. Logan et al. (2003); Warming in the western United States has created longer periods Carroll et al. (2004); of activity for insects and proliferation of some species, such as Hansen et al. (2001); the mountain pine beetle. Drought stress resulting from Logan and Powell decreased precipitation and/or warming temperatures are (2001); Hansen and expected to sustain an expansion of suitable range for mountain Bentz (2003); pine beetle and southern pine beetle and the likelihood of spruce Easterling et al.(2007); beetle outbreak. Breshears et al. (2005)
Fischlin et al. (2007); Climate change (very high confidence) and ocean acidification Schneider et al. (2007); (medium confidence) will impair a wide range of marine Nicholls et al. (2007); organisms. Sea surface temperature increases of 1 to 3 °C are USGCRP (2009:12 & projected to result in more frequent bleaching events and 13) widespread mortality for coral.
Panel C: Urban centers that were once assumed to have a high adaptive NSTC (2008: Sections capacity are vulnerable to extreme events such as hurricanes V.5.b and V.5.d); Distribution (e.g., the New Orleans experience with Hurricane Katrina). The Wilbanks et al. (2008); of Impacts vulnerabilities of some major urban centers are exacerbated by Hartwig (2006); Hunter their location on flood plains. Extreme weather events can (2006); McCarthy et al. therefore threaten energy and other infrastructures. Increased (2006); NPCC (2009) frequency and severity of heat waves is expected, leading to more illness and death, particularly among the young, elderly, frail, and poor. In many cases, the urban heat island effect combined with local pollution exposures may increase heat- related mortality.
Consideration of both physical vulnerability and adaptive CCSP (2008:123) ; capacity determined by such factors as economic, demographic, Zabran, et al. (2008) and civic participation identify concentrations of highly vulnerable counties along the east and west coasts and Great Lakes, and medium vulnerability inland in the southeast, southwest, and northeast. Offshore energy production (Gulf of Mexico particularly) is Bull et al. (2007) particularly susceptible to extreme weather events.
Increases in extreme weather (e.g., storms, flooding) and NSTC (2008: Sect. accompanying events (e.g., wildfire resulting from prolonged V.5.d) USGCRP (2009: drought) may lead to increases in deaths, injuries, infectious 14); NPCC (2009) diseases, interruptions of medical care for chronic disease treatment, and stress-related disorders and other adverse effects associated with social disruption and migration. References
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