Electronic Supplementary Material s47

Electronic Supplementary Material

Online Resource 1. Summary of data derived from geospatial sources. Sites indicated with an asterisk (*) are calibration sites used in the model development. Sites in bold are validation sites.

198 1- 1971-2000 201 0 Sit Lati Lon E N % W S A A Av An Avg e tud gitu l o Sl i u v v g. nu . e de e r o n m g g Ja al Jan. v m pe t m . . n. Pr Min. a al e e A A Mi eci Tem ti iz r r n n n. pit p. o e H H n n Te ati (ºC) n d il il u u m on ( A l l a a p. (c m s s s l l (º m) ) p h h T M C) e a a e i ct d d m n . T p e . m e e (° p C . ) (° C ) - 41.2 1 0. 39 1 2 - 11 AC 74.8 - 449 6 9 .6 2 3 9 3 9. 9.3 2* 732 9.50 8 5 6 7 6 5 10 8 6 - 41.2 1 0. 31 2 - 11 AC 74.8 5 - 417 5 0 .5 1 9 3 8. 9.3 3* 705 5 8.95 8 4 1 2 3 86 8 8 - 41.4 1. 1 2 - 12 BB 72.3 7 5. - 545 0 1 4 9 4 7. 9.5 1* 313 0 76 7.81 0 0 1 3 84 4 8 - 41.4 0. 2 - 13 BB 72.3 5 9. 8 - 649 5 3 9 4 8. 4.6 2* 376 4 05 4 8.06 3 0 2 28 2 9 DC 41.0 - 1 0. 17 9 2 9 3 - 12 - 2* 980 74.9 7 7 .4 3 3 8. 4.4 8.31 3 557 9 5 8 4 55 6 0 - 41.2 2 0. 23 2 - 11 DF 74.8 5 - 221 1 0 .0 1 9 3 9. 9.3 1* 830 2 9.29 0 3 5 7 7 05 8 7 - 41.4 0. 52 1 2 - 12 DH 72.3 7 - 757 9 .0 9 4 9 3 8. 9.5 2* 383 0 8.07 5 7 1 0 9 36 4 0 - - 41.9 6 0. 33 1 2 12 - EB 74.4 12 572 4 8 .4 0 3 8 0 9.5 11.9 1* 872 .0 4 1 9 8 9 2 4 1 0 1 - - 41.9 6 0. 12 2 12 - FB 74.4 9 12 693 6 7 .5 3 8 0 9.5 11.7 1* 486 3 .1 4 5 1 5 6 4 0 7 2 - - 41.9 6 0. 1 2 13 - FB 74.4 2. 12 673 5 9 0 4 6 0 4.6 11.8 2* 525 66 .2 7 3 8 6 1 2 6 0 5 - - 41.9 6 0. 12 2 - FV 74.4 9 12 13 988 6 9 .7 3 7 0 12.2 1* 947 9 .5 9.7 1 0 0 9 8 9 4 6 FV 41.9 - 6 0. 12 7 2 6 0 - 14 - 2* 685 74.5 7 3 .8 6 2 12 4.7 11.6 1 198 4 2 5 9 .0 8 7 7 1 - - G 41.9 3 0. 26 1 2 12 - 73.2 11 M1 501 4 4 .1 3 4 9 2 9.5 10.3 815 .0 * 3 0 9 6 9 6 4 1 0 7 - - G 41.9 3 0. 2 12 73.2 4. 9 11 - M2 796 8 5 3 9 2 9.5 267 55 7 .3 9.71 * 7 2 2 8 4 0 6 - - G 41.9 3 0. 2 12 - 73.2 6. 9 11 M3 820 8 6 3 9 2 9.5 10.7 250 82 7 .2 * 6 8 7 8 4 3 0 2 - - G 41.9 4 0. 10 1 2 12 73.2 11 - M4 721 6 9 .6 2 4 7 2 9.5 362 .4 9.43 * 7 6 4 0 6 7 4 0 0 - - G 41.9 4 0. 2 12 73.2 4. 9 11 - M5 618 6 4 3 7 2 9.5 511 01 6 .4 9.15 * 9 3 5 8 4 0 6 - - G 41.9 3 0. 34 1 2 - 73.2 11 13 M6 489 1 5 .7 5 4 7 2 10.3 811 .0 9.7 * 4 0 8 7 6 7 1 0 7 KH 42.0 - 5 0. 19 6 2 6 1 - 13 - 1* 736 74.6 6 8 .7 8 2 11 9.7 12.4 0 508 0 0 1 4 .6 9 6 7 - - M 42.0 6 0. 15 2 - 74.5 8 - 13 13 B1 665 7 0 .1 3 6 12.5 913 7 1 .0 9.7 * 5 7 3 7 2 8 5 1 - M 41.7 3 0. 46 1 - 74.2 13 - P1 345 9 3 .9 5 8 6 4 8. 344 9.7 7.97 * 0 0 1 3 6 97 0 - M 41.7 4 0. 78 1 2 - 14 74.3 - P2 280 0 3 .7 3 0 6 4 9. 9.8 012 8.51 * 6 2 3 9 8 8 20 6 7 - - 41.9 5 0. 11 2 14 - NS 74.5 7 11 341 4 2 .3 3 6 1 9.8 10.9 1* 334 8 .2 5 1 8 7 0 6 6 4 6 - - 41.9 6 0. 1 2 14 - NS 74.5 7. 11 181 0 2 0 4 6 1 4.7 11.0 2* 828 85 .5 7 1 2 5 1 8 4 2 8 - - P 41.9 4 0. 47 1 14 - 74.4 10 M2 231 1 2 .5 5 8 6 1 9.8 10.1 010 .9 * 7 6 1 2 2 6 6 6 1 RH 41.4 - 4 0. 21 8 2 7 4 - 13 - 1* 393 72.4 1 7 .0 7 3 8. 9.7 8.09 7 752 2 6 1 29 2 - - 41.9 7 0. 1 2 14 - RK 74.4 3. 12 271 3 1 0 4 6 0 9.8 11.7 1* 868 65 .1 0 6 4 2 0 6 0 0 2 - - 41.9 6 0. 1 2 14 - RP 74.5 4. 11 438 1 8 0 4 5 1 9.8 11.3 1* 879 25 .7 7 7 6 4 0 6 0 6 7 - - 42.4 2 0. 19 1 2 11 - SC 72.1 11 559 6 8 .6 0 3 7 1 9.3 11.5 1* 656 .6 5 6 4 2 2 7 8 2 4 6 - - 42.4 2 1. 1 2 11 - SC 72.1 9. 11 529 4 0 1 4 7 1 9.3 11.0 2* 678 54 .6 3 1 0 9 5 8 6 9 4 - - 41.9 6 0. 31 1 2 - SH 74.5 11 13 723 2 9 .4 1 3 7 0 11.3 1* 187 .9 9.7 0 4 0 6 3 5 4 7 1 - 41.4 0. 1 2 - 13 SN 72.4 7 8. - 049 7 0 4 7 5 7. 4.6 1* 014 6 89 7.77 7 1 3 0 08 2 5 SR 41.5 - 6 0. 20 6 2 7 4 - 13 - 1* 619 72.4 2 4 .1 5 2 8. 4.6 8.10 0 380 1 0 3 52 2 2 - - 42.0 5 0. 30 2 13 - TH 74.3 4 11 085 0 0 .1 1 7 1 4.6 11.0 1* 185 5 .3 2 4 0 9 0 2 2 0 0 - - 42.0 4 0. 20 2 13 TH 74.3 5 10 - 104 2 0 .6 2 7 3 4.6 2* 091 8 .2 9.20 0 1 3 7 0 2 5 1 - - 42.0 3 0. 17 1 2 13 - TH 74.2 10 089 1 4 .4 2 4 7 2 4.6 10.0 3* 969 .9 5 1 7 8 0 3 2 7 9 0 - 41.0 2 0. 31 2 - 11 VC 74.9 4 - 924 8 4 .9 0 9 4 8. 9.3 1* 332 1 8.69 0 6 0 9 8 86 8 5 - - W 42.0 4 0. 66 1 13 74.3 10 - V1 354 2 9 .0 0 5 7 2 4.6 550 .6 9.91 * 8 1 8 2 6 2 0 2 - - W 42.0 5 0. 55 1 2 13 - 74.3 10 V2 374 2 6 .0 9 4 7 2 4.6 10.1 624 .8 * 8 9 8 6 1 7 2 7 7 8 W 42.0 - 3 0. 31 1 2 5 3 - 12 - V3 375 74.3 7 8 .6 6 5 10 4.4 9.34 * 3 404 6 9 4 5 2 .2 6 1 2 - - W 41.9 5 0. 1 2 - 74.6 8. 12 11 W 315 6 8 0 4 6 0 11.3 487 69 .1 4.3 1* 8 6 3 3 0 3 3 1 - - 42.3 1 0. 21 2 11 - A 72.5 5 10 071 5 1 .1 1 9 2 9.3 10.3 M1 320 3 .8 1 0 2 1 8 8 4 7 1 - - 42.2 1 0. 22 2 13 - CB 72.9 5 - 11 427 5 0 .1 1 8 4.6 10.8 1 160 8 1 .5 5 0 1 6 9 2 8 1 0 - - 42.5 3 0. 1 2 - H 72.1 3. 10 13 387 5 8 0 4 7 2 11.0 G1 791 08 .5 9.7 9 7 9 4 1 2 2 0 - - 42.2 1 0. 15 1 2 11 - MT 72.6 10 690 6 8 .1 0 3 8 0 9.3 10.1 1 370 .6 2 7 4 5 2 8 8 6 9 3 - - 42.2 1 0. 18 1 2 11 - MT 72.6 10 704 8 5 .7 3 4 8 0 9.3 10.4 2 349 .9 7 2 3 3 2 7 8 4 5 8 Q 42.3 - 2 0. 28 1 2 8 4 - 11 - U1 489 72.2 0 9 .1 2 3 11 4.3 10.9 4 791 7 4 2 0 9 .2 0 0 3 - - 42.3 2 0. 30 2 11 - Q 72.3 4 11 154 6 0 .3 0 8 4 9.3 11.6 U2 813 3 .0 5 9 1 5 9 8 2 0 2 - - 42.3 2 0. 11 2 12 - Q 72.3 7 11 847 3 0 .1 3 8 2 4.4 12.0 U3 794 7 .0 6 8 7 6 0 6 8 5 1 - - 42.3 2 0. 11 1 2 11 - Q 72.3 11 682 1 9 .6 2 4 8 2 9.3 11.5 U4 721 .1 0 0 9 2 4 7 8 1 0 9 - - 42.3 2 0. 17 1 2 11 - Q 72.2 11 582 4 9 .5 2 4 8 1 9.3 10.9 U5 780 .2 4 1 9 8 7 6 8 4 0 5 - - 42.3 2 0. 31 1 2 11 - Q 72.2 11 556 2 8 .3 6 5 8 1 9.3 10.7 U6 781 .2 4 1 6 7 7 4 8 3 9 7 - - 42.3 1 0. 16 2 12 - Q 72.2 9 11 761 8 1 .1 3 8 1 4.4 10.9 U7 426 5 .2 4 3 1 2 5 6 9 5 8 R 42.0 - 5 0. 3. 9 2 8 2 - 11 - O1 845 72.6 4 5 07 8 3 9. 9.3 8.93 9 693 3 9 51 8 1 - - 42.2 1 0. 30 2 12 - SB 72.9 3 11 538 7 2 .0 0 8 2 4.4 11.5 1 491 7 .8 0 3 8 3 8 6 4 6 6 - - 42.2 1 0. 31 2 11 SK 72.5 6 10 - 988 2 6 .2 1 7 0 9.3 1 948 6 .2 9.57 1 2 3 2 9 8 1 1 Online Resource 2. Summary of site data collected in the field. Plots in bold are validation plots. Year of plot establishment refers to the first year data was collected for that site. Dominant non-host species are reported using the following two letter codes: AB-American beech

(Fagus grandifolia), BA-bigtooth aspen (Populus grandidentata), BB-black birch (Betula lenta), BO-black oak (Quercus velutina), CO-chestnut oak (Quercus prinus), RM-red maple (Acer rubrum), RO-red oak

(Quercus rubra), RS-red spruce (Picea rubens), SM-sugar maple (Acer saccharum), TP-tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera), WA-white ash (Fraxinus americana), WO- white oak (Quercus alba), WP-white pine (Pinus strobus), and YB-yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis). Si S Cr Year Rep Ave To % Dominant te ta ow of orte rag tal BA Non-Host A P 5.2 2001 199 10.7 70 68 AB(4) BB(5) A P 5.8 2001 199 34.8 63 72 BB(5) BO(9) B C 6.3 2001 199 35.7 45 52 BB(30) BO(8) B C 5.0 2001 199 31.4 81 57 BB(34) RM(2) D N 5.5 2001 199 31.1 57 94 AB(2) BB(4) D P 6.0 2001 199 34.6 44 79 BB(6) BA(9) D C 5.8 2001 199 21.4 54 81 BB(13) E N 4.5 2001 200 No 56 82 RM(12) YB(6) F N 3.4 2001 200 0.5 76 34 AB(6) RM(39) F N 4.4 2003 200 1.8 No No No Data F N 3.8 2001 200 0.2 54 76 AB(6) YB(15) F N 4.3 2002 200 1.2 75 69 RM(24) YB(6) G C 6.4 2001 199 55.4 67 76 RO(24) G C 4.0 2001 200 2.5 77 67 RM(12) G C 3.8 2001 200 0.7 67 59 RM(16) G C 3.9 2001 200 1.2 79 82 RM(15) YB(3) G C 3.9 2001 200 0.2 64 86 AB(2) RO(7) G C 6.5 2001 199 54.7 77 81 BO(5) SM(4) K N 3.9 2002 200 0.3 50 57 RM(12) M N 3.5 2002 NI 0.0 63 84 AB(1) BB(11) M N 4.6 2001 200 No 64 49 AB(9) RM(8) M N 5.4 2002 200 44.3 No No No Data N N 4.3 2001 200 3.8 62 90 AB(4) RM(3) N N 3.9 2001 200 0.2 77 59 RM(33) YB(8) P N 6.1 2002 200 46.6 73 60 RM(11) R C 5.9 2001 199 30.6 47 78 BB(19) YB(4) R N 3.6 2002 No No 97 68 RM(26) YB(4) R N 3.8 2002 200 0.0 89 84 RM(3) YB(13) S M 4.1 2001 NI 0.0 73 77 BB(11) RM(4) S M 3.5 2001 200 0.1 73 69 AB(6) BB(3) S N 4.1 2003 200 5.5 No No No Data S C 6.1 2001 199 41.3 45 48 BB(12) RM(9) S C 4.9 2001 199 12.5 59 72 BO(28) T N 4.4 2001 199 32.6 36 67 AB(6) SM(25) T N 6.2 2001 199 75.1 46 78 AB(6) SM(8) T N 6.4 2002 199 33.7 79 72 AB(16) V N 5.2 2001 199 15.2 66 79 BB(4) CO(3) W N 5.3 2001 200 45.8 58 50 AB(28) W N 6.4 2001 200 59.7 66 48 AB(15) SM(2) W N 5.1 2002 200 48.2 10 49 AB(18) W N 3.8 2002 NI 0.0 47 86 YB(14) A M No 2008 No No 26 31 BB(23) C M No 2008 No No 36 56 BB(6) RM(6) H M 4.4 2001 No No 90 89 RM(6) RO(5) M M No 2008 No No 30 60 CO(7) RO(20) M M No 2008 No No 34 71 AB(6) RM(6) Q M 7.2 2001 199 70.8 69 77 RM(6) YB(17) Q M 4.9 2001 No No 81 61 BO(27) Q M 4.9 2001 200 37.8 70 68 BB(5) BO(12) Q M 5.0 2001 No No 60 71 RM(13) WP(9) Q M No 2008 No No 26 69 BB(8) RM(8) Q M No 2008 No No 44 50 RM(23) RO(5) Q M No 2008 No No 42 76 RM(5) RO(14) R M No 2008 No No 24 50 BO(42) WP(8) S M No 2008 No No 32 69 RM(6) RO(19) S M No 2008 No No 32 56 RO(38) Online Resource 3. BAI calculations and HWA infestation levels at sampled sites. Sites in bold are validation sites. BAIdecl refers to the percent of basal area increment (BAI) decline between BAIprior and BAImin, or during the decline period (Error: Reference source not found). BAIprior refers to the average BAI for the three years prior to the onset of decline; the three years prior to the largest Dscore. Year BAIprior refers to the year prior to the onset of decline. BAImin refers to the three-year period with the smallest average BAI following the onset of decline. Year BAImin refers to the second year of the three-year period around which BAImin was calculated. Reported year of infestation refers to the year HWA was first documented on each site: NI indicates not infested as of 2006.1 Average HWA infestation refers to the average level of infestation on each site, represented as a percentage. Number of years infested refers to the number of years a given plot has been infested with HWA.2

Nu mb Repo Aver er BA Ye BA Ye rted age St of Sit BAI Iprior ar Imin ar Year % at Ye e decl (m BA (m BA of HWA e 2 2 ars m ) Iprior m ) Imin Infest Infest Inf ation ation est ed AC P 42. 14. 199 8.4 20 1995 10.68 11 AC P 56. 25. 199 10. 20 1995 34.77 11 BB C 79. 22. 199 3.2 20 1994 35.67 12 BB C 60. 17. 199 7.5 20 1999 31.36 7 D NJ 50. 25. 199 12. 20 1993 31.09 13 DF P 69. 12. 199 3.8 20 1993 34.58 13 D C 54. 16. 200 7.5 20 1992 21.35 14 EB N 32. 21. 199 14. 20 2002 No 4 FB N 27. 21. 199 15. 20 2003 0.53 3 FB N 33. 25. 199 16. 20 2003 1.82 3 FV N 28. 15. 200 11. 20 2002 0.24 4 FV N 40. 24. 199 15. 20 2002 1.20 4 G C 82. 12. 199 2.8 20 1999 55.35 7 G C 44. 24. 199 13. 20 2002 2.50 4 G C 54. 17. 199 7.1 20 2003 0.72 3 G C 32. 24. 199 18. 20 2003 1.24 3 1 1 of 48 calibration sites had no data for year of infestation, while 13 of 15 validation sites had no data for year of infestation.

2 Number of years of infestation is calculated using 2006 as the terminal year for calibration sites and 2007 for validation sites. G C 41. 27. 199 15. 20 2004 0.22 2 G C 83. 9.3 199 1.8 20 1999 54.70 7 KH N 36. 15. 199 9.5 20 2004 0.28 2 M N 26. 26. 199 19. 20 NI 0.00 0 M N 30. 24. 199 16. 20 2000 No 6 M N 60. 26. 199 11. 20 2000 44.26 6 NS N 30. 15. 199 10. 20 2002 3.76 4 NS N 28. 30. 199 21. 20 2002 0.24 4 P N 65. 24. 199 9.9 20 2003 46.57 3 R C 71. 33. 199 8.8 20 1991 30.57 15 RK N 32. 12. 200 8.1 20 No No No RP N 41. 24. 199 14. 20 2005 0.00 1 SC M 45. 22. 199 11. 19 NI 0.00 0 SC M 46. 21. 199 13. 19 2005 0.13 1 SH N 48. 26. 199 14. 20 2003 5.50 3 SN C 77. 18. 198 2.8 19 1990 41.30 16 SR C 43. 17. 199 10. 20 1999 12.47 7 TH N 33. 23. 200 16. 20 1999 32.63 7 TH N 67. 30. 199 8.0 20 1999 75.11 7 TH N 66. 21. 199 6.4 20 1999 33.65 7 VC NJ 42. 24. 199 13. 20 1993 15.22 13 W N 42. 28. 200 15. 20 2000 45.84 6 W N 90. 44. 200 4.3 20 2000 59.70 6 W N 48. 20. 199 11. 19 2000 48.18 6 W N 35. 15. 199 9.2 19 NI 0.00 0 A M 63. 32. 200 12. 20 No No No C M 37. 19. 199 12. 20 No No No H M 38. 16. 199 9.8 20 No No No M M 73. 9.6 199 2.5 20 No No No M M 72. 28. 199 7.9 20 No No No Q M 73. 28. 199 6.8 20 1999 70.80 8 Q M 41. 20. 199 14. 20 No No No Q M 45. 37. 199 20. 20 2002 37.80 5 Q M 32. 25. 199 16. 20 No No No Q M 59. 28. 200 10. 20 No No No Q M 75. 15. 199 3.4 20 No No No Q M 33. 17. 199 11. 19 No No No R M 29. 15. 199 10. 19 No No No SB M 41. 20. 200 12. 20 No No No SK M 55. 38. 199 15. 20 No No No