IGA-321 Sprint 2009 Class Schedule

Harvard University John F. Kennedy School of Government IGA-232: Controlling Weapons Proliferation Spring 2012 William Tobey

Time: Monday and Wednesday, 11:40 a.m.-1:00 p.m. Location: Littauer 332

Objective

The global effort to stem the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons is fundamental to international security. This course offers an in-depth overview of policies and institutions intended to prevent proliferation of these weapons and keep them out of terrorist hands, what can be done to strengthen these efforts, and what can be done to limit the risk when proliferation does occur. The primary focus is on nuclear weapons, but chemical and biological arms and ballistic missiles are also addressed. The course explores (a) the technologies of these weapons; (b) the wide range of policy tools available for preventing proliferation; (c) approaches to responding to proliferation when it does occur, including deterrence, military strikes, and defenses; and (d) how these issues interact with broader national and international policies. Policy choices relating to North Korea, Iran, nuclear terrorism, black-market nuclear technology networks, the future of nuclear energy, and nuclear arms reductions are explored in depth. The purpose of nonproliferation policies is to reduce the risks to national and international security posed by the spread of these weapons. Hence, this course will employ a risk management framework, helping students understand how policymakers make judgments about which policies will result in the lowest overall security risks, considering the probability of various successful and unsuccessful outcomes and their consequences. Making these judgments requires an understanding of the underlying technologies, of the policy tools available and their records of success or failure, and of decision-making in the states these policies are attempting to influence. By the end of this course, students will have a grounding in these topics and experience in making difficult choices between nonproliferation policy options along with tradeoffs between competing goals, preparing them to take part in nonproliferation policymaking. This is a discussion-based class, and class participation is very important. To be able to participate in the discussion, students are expected to have done the reading before each class.

Office Hours

Will Tobey will be available after each class, and by appointment in his office at LP-24, [email protected] Katie Frost [email protected] is the course IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 2 assistant. Leah Knowles [email protected] is the faculty assistant. Her telephone number is (617) 496-2737 and her office is located in Littauer 376A.

Assignments and Grading

There are seven assignments for this course. The first assignment is a problem set intended to familiarize students with some of the key numbers associated with nuclear weapons production and effects, and how they might influence policy choices. Three of the other assignments are policy memos laying out options and making a recommendation related to a particular policy problem that will be provided in class. Two of the assignments are participation in class simulations, one focused on nuclear negotiations with Iran and the other focused on U.S. interagency decision-making with respect to Syria. Students will receive somewhat different assignments for the simulations, depending on the roles they are to play. Detailed instructions will be given the week before the simulations. Students should be advised that there will be extra homework during the week of the simulations, and that a short reflection must be written by the due-dates below. The final assignment is a take-home final exam. Written assignments must be posted to the course web page by 5:00 p.m. on the dates listed below. Late papers will receive reduced grades, except in exceptional circumstances approved by the instructor. #1: 6 February Problem set (5% of course grade) #2: 13 February First recommendation memo (15%) #3: 5-7 March First simulation exercise (15%) #4: 2 April Second recommendation memo (group) (15%) #6: 11 April Second simulation exercise (10%) #7: April 28 Take-home final exam (25%) The last 15% of the course grade will be based on participation in class discussion.

Expectations and Readings

The Kennedy School is a professional school, training professionals. As such, students are expected to: attend all classes; be on time; submit assignments on time; be respectful of each other and of the instructors; and do their best to prepare professional products for their assignments. Students are only permitted to have computers in class for the purpose of taking notes; having a laptop open will greatly increase a student’s chance of getting a sudden question from the professor. As noted above, students are expected to have read the required readings before class – many of the classes will be discussions of issues raised in the readings. Recommended readings represent additional resources that may be useful for students particularly interested in a particular topic, but reading them is not required. Most of the course readings are available on the internet. Those that are not will be available in a packet from the Course Materials Office. While there is no textbook for this course, an excellent general resource on proliferation is Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 3

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005). An equally excellent overview of U.S. nuclear weapons policy and its intersections with the nonproliferation is provided in George Bunn and Christopher F. Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s Threats (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006). Both of these will be on reserve in the HKS library. Students who are particularly interested may consider purchasing them. An important element of the course is up to date information on dynamic issues of great importance; course readings will be updated accordingly. An Important Reminder About Citing Sources: Students must be familiar with and observe Kennedy School and Harvard rules regarding the citation of sources. Any sentences or paragraphs taken verbatim from the writing of (or interviews with) any other person or persons, or from your own writing that has been published elsewhere, must be placed in quotation marks and its source must be identified with a footnote or endnote that includes the usual bibliographic information: author’s name, title of article or chapter, venue (book, journal, magazine, website, report, thesis, term paper, private letter), date, and page numbers if applicable. Changing the wording of a sentence or passage slightly does not evade the requirement for citation (nor reduce the chance of detection). Indeed, whenever you are drawing an important argument or insight from someone else, even if you reword it into your own words, a reference to the source is required. All of these requirements also apply to material taken from websites. Including material from others in assignments, exams, or term papers without appropriate quotation marks and citations is regarded, as a matter of School and University policy, as a serious violation of academic and professional standards and can lead to a failing grade in the course, failure to graduate, and even expulsion from the University.

Proliferation News Sources

In class, we will frequently be discussing events in the news, and students should keep up with at least the biggest news stories unfolding relating to nonproliferation. (In some cases, a news story to be discussed will be distributed before class.) Particularly useful sources for proliferation- related news include:

Proliferation News. Prepared by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s nonproliferation program, this source alone will allow students to keep up with the most important nonproliferation news. Students can sign up for the free e-mail service, or go to the website at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/.

Global Security Newswire. Prepared by National Journal on contract to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, this is a daily news service summarizing the news of the day relating to nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Available at http://www.nti.org

ArmsControlWonk. Founded by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (former executive director of the HKS Managing the Atom project), this blog provides in-depth commentary and analysis on a variety of nonproliferation developments. http://www.armscontrolwonk.com IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 4

IAEA Daily Press Review. Provides links to news stories from around the world related to the IAEA, or to nuclear energy and proliferation. Refreshed each working day, and no archive is maintained. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Dpr/pressreview.html

Partnership for Global Security Nuclear News. Compiles full text of selected news stories related to nuclear security and nonproliferation. The Partnership for Global Security maintains an archive of past issues, useful for research on past events. Available at http://www.partnershipforglobalsecurity.org

Each of these websites also provides a variety of other information that may be useful for students preparing papers and the like.

Class Schedule

Date: Subject: 23 Jan Why this course matters: Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and global security in a risk-based framework 25 Jan Nuclear weapons design and construction, nuclear materials, nuclear effects (Bunn) 30 Jan Nuclear materials production, safeguards, threats, and diplomacy: Case 1: North Korea, 1992-94 1 Feb Why states decide to get, or not to get, nuclear weapons 6 Feb Deterrence and its risks 8 Feb The Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the nonproliferation regime (Bunn) 13 Feb Nuclear energy and proliferation 15 Feb Nuclear safeguards and verification (Oli) 22 Feb Chemical and biological weapons and their control (guest) 27 Feb Isolation vs. diplomacy: Case 2: North Korea 2001-2010 29 Feb Sanctions, diplomacy, and military options: Case 3: Iran 5 March Simulation: Negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program 7 March Simulation: Negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program 12 March Spring Break 14 March Spring Break 19 March Black-market technology transfer: Case 4: The A.Q. Khan Network 21 March Nonproliferation successes: Libya, Argentina-Brazil, South Africa, and more (Bunn) 26 March States outside the NPT: India, Pakistan, Israel 28 March Tools beyond treaties: cooperative threat reduction, UNSCR 1540, Proliferation Security Initiative, Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, and more 2 April Preventing nuclear terrorism 4 April Delivery systems and missile defenses 9 April Preemptive and preventive attacks 11 April Decision-making simulation: policy toward Syria 16 April Nuclear arms reductions and disarmament IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 5

18 April Processes for making nonproliferation decisions 23 April Nuclear weapons policy for the future 25 April Summing up: stemming the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons

23 January: Why this course matters: Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and global security

Required reading: Remarks by President Barack Obama, Haradcany Square, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-In- Prague-As-Delivered/ James Kitfield, “Obama's Nuclear Gambit: Complex Calculus Governs Doomsday Weapons”, Global Security Newswire, April 16, 2010, http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100416_2142.php

Recommended reading: Graham Allison, “Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats,” Foreign Affairs, http://ezp- prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=48780602&site=ehost-live&scope=site Joseph Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (New York: Columbia, 2007). (This book is not on library reserve but is available at Widener Library.) Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express: a Political History of the Bomb and its Proliferation (Osceola, WI: Zenith Press, 2009) Ashton B. Carter, “How to Counter WMD,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2004, http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=14348326&site=ehost-live&scope=site 25 January: Nuclear weapons design and construction, nuclear materials, nuclear effects Required reading: International Panel on Fissile Materials, “Appendix: Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapons,” in Global Fissile Materials Report 2008: Scope and Verification of a Fissile Material (Cutoff) Treaty (Princeton, N.J.: IPFM, 2008), http://www.ipfmlibrary.org/gfmr08.pdf, pp. 102-109. Office of Technology Assessment, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” in Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December 1993), pp. 119-129, 149-158. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html Office of Technology Assessment, The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC: OTA, May 1979), http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF, pp. 15-46 Alan Robock, “Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Conflict,” IPRC Climate, Vol. 7, No. 1, 2007, pp. 16-18. http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/iprc_climate_NW.pdf (other presentations of these results available at http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/). Recommended reading: IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 6

John P. Holdren and Matthew Bunn, “Technical Background,” in NTI Research Library: Securing the Bomb, http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/technical.asp Donald R. Cotter, “Peacetime Operations: Safety and Security,” in Ashton B. Carter, John D. Steinbruner, and Charles A. Zraket, eds., Managing Nuclear Operations (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1987), section on pp. 42-53 [useful description of devices to prevent unauthorized detonation of nuclear weapons] Samuel Glasstone and Phillip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense and Energy Research and Development Administration, 1977), http://www.fissilematerials.org/ipfm/site_down/gla77.pdf. Alexander Glaser, “Nuclear Weapons Effects” [lecture slides], http://www.princeton.edu/~aglaser/lecture2007_weaponeffects.pdf Frederic Solomon, M.D., and Robert Q. Marston, M.D., The Medical Implications of Nuclear War (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986), esp. Theodore Postol, Chapter 1, “Possible Fatalities from Superfires Following Nuclear Attacks in or near Urban Areas,” http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=940&page=15 Lynn Eden, Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell, 2006).

30 January: Nuclear material production, safeguards, threats, and diplomacy: Case 1: North Korea, 1992-1994 Required Reading: “Standing at the Brink in North Korea: The Counterproliferation Imperative,” in Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), pp. 123-142. “Carrots, Sticks, and Question Marks: Negotiating the North Korean Crisis (A)” Harvard Kennedy School Case C18-95-1297.0, 39 pp. “Carrots, Sticks, and Question Marks: Negotiating the North Korean Crisis (B)” Harvard Kennedy School Case C18-95-1298.0, 17 pp. Houston G. Wood, Alexander Glaser, and R. Scott Kemp, “The Gas Centrifuge and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation,” Physics Today, pp. 40-45 http://ptonline.aip.org/journals/doc/PHTOAD- ft/vol_61/iss_9/40_1.shtml Recommended Reading: Office of Technology Assessment, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” in Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December 1993), pp. 129-149. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html Peter Zimmerman, “Proliferation: Bronze Medal Technology is Enough,” Orbis Vol. 38, No. 1 (Winter 1994), pp, 67-83 http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login? url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=mth&AN=9409027514&site=ehost- live&scope=site IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 7

Daniel B. Poneman, Joel S. Wit, and Robert L. Gallucci, Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2004). Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy With North Korea (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), esp. pp. 90-123, 150-161, 184-191. William J. Perry, Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 12 October 1999), http://www.state.gov/www/regions/eap/991012_northkorea_rpt.html C. Kenneth Quinones, “Back to the Future” (Review of Marion Creekmore, A Moment of Crisis: Jimmy Carter, The Power of a Peacemaker, and North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions), Arms Control Today, August 2006, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_12/BookReview Michael J. Mazarr, “Going Just a Little Nuclear: Nonproliferation Lessons from North Korea,” International Security, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Fall 1995), 92–122. Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York: Columbia, 2005) 280 pp.

1 February: Why states decide to get, or not to get, nuclear weapons Required reading: Scott Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3, Winter 1996/1997 pp 54-86. Matthew Bunn, “Realist, Idealist, and Integrative Approaches to Proliferation Policy” (unpublished, 2003) Recommended reading: Jacques E. C. Hymans, “The Study of Nuclear Proliferation and Nonproliferation: Toward a New Consensus?” in Willam C. Potter and Eaukhar Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: The Role of Theory: Vol. 1 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010), pp. 13-37. Jim Walsh, Bombs Unbuilt: Power, Ideas, and Institutions in International Politics, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2001. Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why States Constrain Their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1995), esp. Chapter 7, “Conclusion,” pp. 321-333. William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 1, Summer 2008, pp. 139-169. Ariel E. Levite, “Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited,” International Security, Vol. 27, No. 3, Winter 2002/2003, pp. 59-88. Sonali Singh and Christopher R. Wray, “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 6 (2004), pp. 859-885. Scott Sagan, “The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation,” Annual Review of Political Science 2011, Vol. 14, pp. 225-44 http://iis- db.stanford.edu/pubs/23205/Sagan_Causesof_NuclearWeaponsProliferation.pdf IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 8

6 February: Deterrence and its risks Required Reading: Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control (1985 ed.) (Washington, D.C.: Pergamon-Brassey’s, 1985), pp. 9-31. (Originally published in 1961.) Jeffrey Lewis, “Minimum Deterrence,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 64, No. 3 (July/August 2008), pp. 38-41 http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2008/minimum_deterrence_7552 Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The Nukes We Need: Preserving the American Deterrent,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 6 (November/December 2009), pp. 39-51. http://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/ABC_Weapons/TheNukesWeNeed.pdf (Also recommended: The exchange of letters over this article in the March/April 2010 issue, http://www.heinonline.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/ fora89&id=1&size=2&collection=journals&index=journals/fora) Vipin Narang, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Posture: Implications for South Asian Stability,” Policy Brief (Cambridge, Mass.: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, January 2010). http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Pakistans_Nuclear_Posture_policy_brief.pdf Robert S. McNamara, “Forty Years After 13 Days,” Arms Control Today, November 2002 (with additional oral history and documents) at “The Cuban Missile Crisis: Revisited on the Anniversary,” http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_11/cubanmissile Recommended Reading: Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), Chapter 14, “Nuclear Threats and Nuclear Weapons,” pp. 348-368. Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Transforming the U.S.- Russian Equation (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006) Albert Wohlstetter, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2, January 1959. http://ezp1.harvard.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com.ezp- prod1.hul.harvard.edu/pqdweb? did=66761839&sid=3&Fmt=6&clientId=11201&RQT=309&VName=PQD McGeorge Bundy, “To Cap the Volcano,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 48, No. 1, October 1969, http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=5802706&site=ehost-live&scope=site Steve Coll, “The Stand-Off,” New Yorker, 13 February 2006, pp. http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/02/13/060213fa_fact_coll?printable=true Vipin Narang, “Posturing for Peace? Pakistan’s Nuclear Postures and South Asian Stability,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Winter 2009/2010), pp. 38-78. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Narang.pdf Peter R. Lavoy and Maj. Steven A. Smith, “The Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Use Between India and Pakistan,” Strategic Insight, 3 February 2003, IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 9 http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/publications/OnlineJournal/2003/feb03/southAsia2.h tml Roger Speed and Michael May, “Assessing the United States’ Nuclear Posture,” in George Bunn and Christopher F. Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s Threats (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006), pp. 248-296. Keith B. Payne et al., Rationale and Requirements for U.S. Nuclear Forces, Vol. I (Fairfax, Va: National Institute for Public Policy, January 2001); at: http://www.nipp.org/National%20Institute %20Press/Archives/Publication%20Archive%20PDF/volume%201%20complete.pdf Keith B. Payne, “The Nuclear Posture Review: Setting the Record Straight,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 135-151 http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login? url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=17187079&site=ehost- live&scope=site Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1966) Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 3rd Ed. (Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave MacMillan, 2003) Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993) Charles L. Glaser, Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990)

8 February: The Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the global nonproliferation regime Required Reading: “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” http://www.un.org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html George Bunn, “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime and Its History,” Chapter 3 in George Bunn and Christopher Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s Threats (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006), pp. 75-125 Graham T. Allison, “Flight of Fancy,” in Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 607 (September 2006), pp. 167-202, http://www.jstor.org.ezp- prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stable/25097846 Jim Walsh, “Learning From Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Non-Proliferation,” No. 41 (Stockholm: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, October 2005), http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/no41.pdf Recommended Reading: Allison Kelly, “NPT: Back on Track,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2010 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_07-08/kelly 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Final Document, NPT/CONF.2010/50 (Vol. 1) http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/50%20(VOL.I) IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 10

Decisions of the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference:  Strengthening the Review Process for the Treaty, http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/1995-NPT/pdf/NPT_CONF199532.pdf  Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/1995-NPT/pdf/NPT_CONF199501.pdf  Extension of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/1995-NPT/pdf/NPT_CONF199503.pdf 2000 NPT Review Conference Final Document, http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/2000-NPT/2000NPTDocs.shtml, esp. pp. 13-15 John Bolton, “The NPT: A Crisis of Non-Compliance,” Statement to the 3rd Plenary Session of the Prepatory Committee for the 2005 Review Conference on the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 27 April 2004, http://merln.ndu.edu/archivepdf/wmd/State/31848.pdf George Bunn, “The NPT: Banning Transfers of Nuclear Weapons Takes Two Decades,” and “The NPT Finally Brings Widespread International Safeguards on Reactors,” in Arms Control by Committee: Managing Negotiations with the Russians (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1992) Lewis A. Dunn, “On Proliferation Watch: Some Reflections on the Past Quarter Century,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring-Summer 1998), pp. 59-77, http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/dunn53.pdf

13 February: Nuclear energy and proliferation Required Reading: Matthew Bunn, “Proliferation Resistance (And Terror-Resistance) of Nuclear Energy Systems,” lecture to “Systems Analysis of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., November 20, 2007 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/bunn_proliferation_resistance_lecture.pdf Mohammed ElBaradei, “Nuclear Energy: The Need for a New Framework,” http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2008/ebsp2008n004.html Matthew Bunn, “Civil Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons Programs: The Record” (unpublished memo) http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/nuclear-engineering/22-812j-managing-nuclear- technology-spring-2004/readings/prolif_history.pdf Chapter 7, “Assessing the Proliferation Risks of Civilian Nuclear Programmes,” pp. 141-150, and Chapter 8, “Policy Options for Preventing a Proliferation Cascade,” pp. 151-164, in Mark Fitzpatrick, ed., Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the Shadow of Iran (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008) Recommended Reading: John P. Holdren, “Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons: The Connection is Dangerous,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 39, No. 1, January 1983, pp. 40-45. IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 11

Bernard I. Spinrad, “Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons: The Connection is Tenuous,” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 39, No. 2, February 1983, pp. 42–47. Harold Feiveson, Alexander Glaser, Marvin Miller, and Lawrence Scheinman, Can Future Nuclear Power be Made Proliferation Resistant? (College Park, Md.: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, University of Maryland, July 2008), http://cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/future_nuclear_power.pdf Matthew Fuhrman, “Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Summer 2009), pp. 7-41, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/IS3401_pp007-041_Fuhrmann.pdf John Deutch, Arnold Kanter, Ernest Moniz, and Daniel Poneman, “Making the World Safe for Nuclear Energy,” Survival, vol. 46, no. 4 (Winter 2004-2005), pp. 65-80. http://web.mit.edu/chemistry/deutch/policy/2004-MakingtheWorld.pdf Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Evaluation Methodology Expert Group, Generation IV International Forum, Evaluation Methodology for Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection of Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, Rev. 5 (Paris: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 30 November 2006) http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/horizontal/PRPPEM.pdf

15 February: Nuclear safeguards and verification Required Reading: Matthew Bunn, “How IAEA Safeguards Work,” Managing the Atom “Nuclear 101” seminar, Cambridge, Mass., 8 July 2009, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/How-IAEA-Safeguards- Work.pdf Matthew Bunn, “International Safeguards: Summarizing ‘Traditional’ and ‘New’ Measures” (unpublished) Matin Kalinowski and R. Scott Kemp, “Detection of Clandestine Fissile Material Production,” Chapter 9 in International Panel on Fissile Materials, Global Fissile Materials Report 2007 (Princeton: IPFM, 2007), pp. 101-109, http://www.fissilematerials.org/ipfm/site_down/gfmr07.pdf Commission of Eminent Persons, Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order for Peace and Prosperity: The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond, GOV/2008/22-GC(52)/INF/4 (Vienna: IAEA, May 2008), pp. 1-11, 18-23, 27-32. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/gov2008- 22gc52inf-4.pdf David Albright and Paul Brannan, “The Al-Kibar Reactor: Extraordinary Camouflage, Troubling Implications” (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Science and International Security, 12 May 2008) http://www.isis-online.org/publications/syria/SyriaReactorReport_12May2008.pdf Mark Hibbs, “Board Sinks IAEA Safeguards Panel with No Agreement on Improvements,” NuclearFuel, 2 July 2007. http://www.lexisnexis.com.ezp1.harvard.edu/us/lnacademic/api/version1/sr? shr=t&csi=8025&sr=HLEAD(Board+Sinks+IAEA)+AND+DATE+IS+07/02/2007 Recommended Reading: IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 12

Pierre Goldschmidt, “IAEA Safeguards: Dealing Preventively With Non-Compliance” (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 12 July 2008) http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Goldschmidt_Dealing_Preventively_7-12-08.pdf George Bunn, “Nuclear Safeguards: How Far Can Inspectors Go?” IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 48, No. 2 (March 2007), pp. 49-55 http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull482/pdfs/13GBunn.pdf John Carlsson and Russell Leslie, “Special Inspections Revisited,” paper presented at the 46th Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management, 10-14 July 2005, Phoenix, Ariz., http://www.asno.dfat.gov.au/publications/inmm2005_special_inspections.pdf U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Nuclear Safeguards and the International Atomic Energy Agency (Washington, D.C.: OTA, 1995) http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1995/9530_n.html U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Environmental Monitoring for Nuclear Safeguards (Washington, D.C.: OTA, 1995) 1995 http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1995/9518_n.html

Jill N. Cooley, “Integrated Nuclear Safeguards: Genesis and Evolution,” in Trevor Findlay, ed., Verification Yearbook 2003 (London: Verification Technology Information Center, 2003) pp. 29-44 http://www.vertic.org/assets/YB03/VY03_Cooley.pdf Marvin Miller, “Are IAEA Safeguards on Plutonium Bulk-Handling Facilities Effective?” (Washington, D.C.: Nuclear Control Institute, August 1990) http://www.nci.org/k- m/mmsgrds.htm Henry Sokolski, ed., Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom (Carlisle, Penn.: U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute, February 2008), http://www.npec- web.org/Books/20080327-FallingBehind.pdf (esp. Chapters 3, 4, 5, and 11).

22 February: Chemical and biological weapons and their control (guest lecture) Required Reading: “Biological and Chemical Weapons, Agents, and Proliferation,” in Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), pp. 57-82 “Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction” http://www.opbw.org/convention/documents/btwctext.pdf Arms Control Association, “The Chemical Weapons Convention at a Glance” (Washington, D.C.: ACA, October 2008) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/cwcglance Matthew Meselson and Julian Perry Robinson, “A Draft Convention to Prohibit Biological and Chemical Weapons Under International Criminal Law,” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 28, No. 1, Winter 2004, pp. 57-72, http://fletcher.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/28- 1pdfs/Meselson.pdf IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 13

Richard Danzig, “Catastrophic Bioterrorism – What is to be Done?” (Washington, D.C.: Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, August 2003) http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/general/danzig01.pdf Milton Leitenberg, “Bioterrorism: Hyped,” Los Angeles Times, 17 February 2006. http://articles.latimes.com/2006/feb/17/opinion/oe-leitenberg17 Recommended Reading: “Technical Aspects of Chemical Weapons Proliferation,” (pp. 15-69) and “Technical Aspects of Biological Weapons Proliferation,” (pp. 71-117) in Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December 1993) http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html Tara O’Toole, “Six Years After Anthrax: Are We Better Prepared to Respond to Bioterrorism?” testimony to the U.S. Senate, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, 23 October 2007 http://www.upmc- biosecurity.org/website/resources/hearings/content/Hearings_2007/20071023_sixyearsafteranthr ax.pdf Milton Leitenberg, Assessing the Biological Weapons and Biological Terrorism Threat (Carlisle, Penn: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, December 2005) http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB639.pdf John Steinbruner, Elisa D. Harris, Nancy Gallagher, Stacy M. Okutani, Controlling Dangerous Pathogens: A Prototype Protective Oversight System (College Park, Md: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, University of Maryland, March 2007) http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/pathogens_project_monograph.pdf Michael Osterholm, “Unprepared for a Pandemic,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 2. March/April 2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/12710/unprepared_for_a_pandemic.html Jonathan B. Tucker and Raymond A. Zalinskas, “The Promise and Perils of Synthetic Biology,” The New Atlantis, No. 12, Spring 2006, pp. 25-45, http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-promise-and-perils-of-synthetic-biology

27 February: Isolation vs. diplomacy: Case 2: North Korea today Required Reading (to be updated as the semester proceeds): Michael Mazarr, “The Long Road to Pyongyang,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2007. Christopher R. Hill, “The Six Party Process: Progress and Perils in North Korea’s Denuclearization,” testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment and Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, 25 October 2007, pp.12-20 http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/38544.pdf Six Party Talks Joint Statement, September 19, 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-09/19/content_479150.htm U.S. Department of State, “U.S.-North Korea Understandings on Verification,” 11 October 2008, http://www.cfr.org/publication/17538/usnorth_korea_understandings_on_verification.html IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 14

John R. Bolton, remarks at “A Fair Deal with North Korea?”, American Enterprise Institute, 5 April 2007, http://www.aei.org/events/filter.,eventID.1487/transcript.asp John S. Park, “Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 4 (Autumn 2005), pp. 75-91 http://www.twq.com/05autumn/docs/05autumn_park.pdf Leon V. Sigal, “Diplomacy Delayed is Not Diplomacy Denied” (Review of Charles L. Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb), Arms Control Today, May 2007, http://www.armscontrol.org/print/2631 Recommended Reading: Gary Samore, ed., North Korea’s Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2004) (Chapters 1 and 2 on Library Reserve, book available at Widener) Mike Chinoy, Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2008), 432 pp. Arms Control Association, “Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy” (Washington, D.C.: Arms Control Association, June 2008) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

29 February: Sanctions, diplomacy, and military options: Case 3: Iran The readings here apply to all three of the sessions the class will spend on the Iran case. They are numerous but short. Students should read as many as possible of them prior to the first class. Individual students and groups may receive additional readings in class, tailored to their roles in the negotiation simulation. Required Reading (to be updated as the semester proceeds): Overall options assessment Matthew Bunn, “Constraining Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing Options and Risks,” presentation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 15 November 2007, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Matthew_Bunn_Oak_Ridge.pdf Status of Iranian program, international response International Atomic Energy Agency, Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran, (Vienna: IAEA, November 8, 2011), http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov/2011- 65.pdf U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Estimate: Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities (Washington, D.C.: ODNI, November 2007) http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf Suzanne Maloney, “U.S. Policy Toward Iran: Missed Opportunities and Paths Forward,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 32, No. 2 (Summer 2008) http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2008/summer_iran_maloney/summer_iran_ maloney.pdf IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 15

Pressure and sanctions, with threat of military strikes William J. Burns, “U.S. Policy Toward Iran,” testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 9 July 2008, pp.12-16 http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/43353.pdf Daniel R. Coats and Charles S. Robb, “Stopping a Nuclear Tehran,” Washington Post, 23 October 2008 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2008/10/22/AR2008102203005.html George Perkovich, “Iran Says ‘No’: Now What?” (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 2008) http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb63_perkovich_iran_final.pdf George A. Lopez, “Effective Sanctions: Incentives and UN-US Dynamics,” Harvard International Review, Fall 2007, pp. 50-54, http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login? url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=28036385&site=ehost- live&scope=site George Perkovich and Silvia Manzanero, “Plan B: Using Sanctions to End Iran’s Nuclear Program,” Arms Control Today, May 2004, http://www.iranwatch.org/privateviews/ACT/perspex-act-perkovichmanzanero-0504.htm Living with a nuclear-armed Iran Barry R. Posen, “We Can Live With a Nuclear Iran,” New York Times, 27 February 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/27/opinion/27posen.html Military strikes Joshua Muravchik, “Bomb Iran,” Los Angeles Times, 19 November 2006, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-muravchik19nov19,0,1681154.story?coll=la- opinion-center David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Jacqueline Shire, “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not” (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Science and International Security, 7 August 2008) http://www.isis- online.org/publications/iran/Centrifuge_Manufacturing_7August2008.pdf Paul Rogers, Iran: Consequences of a War (Oxford: Oxford Research Group, February 2006), 12 pp. http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/sites/default/files/IranConsequences.pdf Walter Pincus, “Ex-Advisers Warn Against Threatening to Attack Iran,” Washington Post, 23 July 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2008/07/22/AR2008072202698.html Negotiations and compromise Matthew Bunn, “Options for Limiting the Security Risks of Potential Negotiated Nuclear Settlements With Iran,” presentation, Managing the Atom Seminar, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass., 24 September 2009, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Options-for- Limiting-the-Security-Risks-from-a-Negotiated-Nuclear-Settlement-with-Iran_1.pdf IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 16

Ray Takeyh, “Taking Threats Off the Table Before Sitting Down With Iran,” Boston Globe, 3 May 2007 http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/05/03/taking_threats_of f_the_table_before_sitting_with_iran Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, “How to Defuse Iran,” New York Times, 11 December 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/opinion/11leverett.html Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson, “A Shared Solution to the Iran Nuclear Stand-Off,” Financial Times, 19 February 2006, http://mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/IranCrisispdf/FinancialTimes_SharedSolution2IranNuclearStandoff.pdf Abbas Maleki and Matthew Bunn, “Finding a Way Out of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis” (Cambridge, Mass: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 23 March 2006) http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/3149/finding_a_way_out_of_the_iranian_nuclear _crisis.html Additional Required Reading Before Simulation Begins: Steven E. Miller, “Proliferation Gamesmanship: Iran and the Politics of Nuclear Confrontation,” Syracuse Law Review, Vol. 57, No. 3 (Spring 2007), pp. 551-599. http://www.lexisnexis.com.ezp1.harvard.edu/us/lnacademic/api/version1/sr? shr=t&csi=139122&sr=CITE(57+Syracuse+L.+Rev.+551) U.N. Security Council Resolution 1803 (New York: United Nations, 3 March 2008), http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res1803-2008.pdf Recommended Reading: Mark Fitzpatrick, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding Worst-Case Outcomes, Adelphi Paper 398 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, November 2008), 100 pp. James N. Miller, Christine Parthemore, and Kurt M. Campbell, eds., Iran: Assessing U.S. Strategic Options (Washington, D.C.: Center for a New American Security, September 2008), 128 pp. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/MillerParthemoreCampbell_Iran %20Assessing%20US%20Strategy_Sept08.pdf Daniel Coats and Charles Robb, co-chairs, Meeting the Challenge: U.S. Policy Toward Iranian Nuclear Development (Washington, D.C.: Bipartisan Policy Center, September 2008), http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/us%20policy%20toward%20iranian %20nuclear%20development.pdf U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Foreign Affairs, U.S. Policy Toward Iran, No. 110-210, hearing, 9 July 2008, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/43353.pdf Gary Samore, ed., Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, September 2005), 128 pp. Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, “Time for a U.S.-Iranian ‘Grand Bargain’” (Washington, D.C.: New America Foundation, 7 October 2008), http://www.newamerica.net/publications/special/time_for_a_us_iranian_grand_bargain_14062 IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 17

Geoffrey Forden and John Thompson, Iran as a Pioneer Case for Multilateral Nuclear Arrangements (Cambridge, Mass.: Science, Technology, and Global Security Working Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 24 May 2007) http://web.mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/IranCrisispdf/Forden-Thomson_Proposal_24_May_2007.pdf William Luers, Thomas R. Pickering, Jim Walsh, “A Solution for the U.S.-Iran Nuclear Standoff,” New York Review of Books, 20 March 2008, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21112 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, The Last Resort: Consequences of Preventive Military Action Against Iran (Washington, D.C.: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 2008) http://www.theisraelproject.org/atf/cf/%7B84DC5887-741E-4056-8D91-A389164BC94E %7D/POLICYFOCUS84.PDF Bruce Jentleson, “Sanctions Against Iran: Key Issues” (Washington, D.C.: Century Foundation, 2007), 39 pp. http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/jentleson.pdf Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Kimberly Ann Elliott, and Barbara Oegg, Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 2007) 233 pp. Chapters available at: http://bookstore.petersoninstitute.org/book-store/4075.html Matthew Bunn, “Placing Iran's Enrichment Activities in Standby” (Cambridge, Mass.: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, June 2006), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn_2006_iran_standby.pdf Ray Takeyh, ”Time for Détente With Iran,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007, http://ezp- prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=24151460&site=ehost-live&scope=site Shahram Chubin, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006). Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States (New Haven, Conn.: Yale, 2007) Barbara Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2007) Thérèse Delpeche, Iran and the Bomb: The Abdication of International Responsibility (New York: Columbia, 2007), 148 pp. Translated by Roy Schwartz.

5 March: Simulation: Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program 7 March: Simulation: Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program (cont.)

12 March: Spring Break 14 March: Spring Break

19 March: Black-market technology transfer: Case 4: The A. Q. Khan network IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 18

Required Reading: “A.Q. Khan and Onward Proliferation From Pakistan,” in Mark Fitzpatrick, ed., Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan, and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007), pp. 65-91. David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, “Uncovering the Nuclear Black Market: Working Toward Closing Gaps in the International Nonproliferation Regime,” in Proceedings of the 45th Annual Meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management, 18-22 July 2004, Orlando, Florida (Northbrook, Ill: INMM, 2004) http://www.isis- online.org/publications/southasia/nuclear_black_market.html Mark Fitzpatrick, “Nuclear Black Markets: Can We Win the Game of Catch-Up With Determined Proliferators?” testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia and Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, 27 June 2008 http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/press- coverage-2007/june-2007/mark-fitzpatricks-testimony/ “Finding Innovative Ways to Detect and Thwart Illicit Nuclear Trade,” transcript of panel, 2007 Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, 25 June 2007, especially remarks by Ralf Wirtz, Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/detect_thwart.pdf Recommended Reading: Chaim Braun and Christopher F. Chyba, “Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Fall 2004), pp. 5-49 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/chyba.pdf Alexander Montgomery, “Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 153-187 http://iis- db.stanford.edu/pubs/21033/Montgomery_IS.pdf Mahdi Obeidi and Kurt Pitzer, “Shopping in Europe,” pp. 99-118 in The Bomb in My Garden: Secrets of Saddam’s Nuclear Mastermind (Hoboken, N.J: Wiley, 2004) Carleton E. Thorne, “Nonproliferation Export Controls,” in James E. Doyle, ed., Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation: Achieving Security With Technology and Policy (Oxford, U.K.: Elsevier, 2008), pp. 531-548. Todd E. Perry, “The Growing Role of Customs Organizations in International Strategic Trade Controls,” in James E. Doyle, ed., Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation: Achieving Security With Technology and Policy (Oxford, U.K.: Elsevier, 2008), pp. 549-560. Matthew Bunn, “Corruption and Nuclear Proliferation,” in Robert Rotberg, ed., Corruption and World Order, forthcoming 2009 [A copy of this chapter will be made available.] Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins, The Nuclear Jihadist: The True Story of the Man Who Sold the World’s Most Dangerous Secrets…And How We Could Have Stopped Him (New York: Twelve, 2007), 432 pp. Gordon Corera, Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the Khan Network (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), 304 pp. IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 19

Office of Technology Assessment, Export Controls and Nonproliferation Policy (Washington, DC: OTA, May 1994) http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1994/9408/9408.PDF Richard Cupitt, project director, Nonproliferation Export Controls: A Global Evaluation: Executive Report (Athens, Georgia: Center for International Trade and Security, University of Georgia, 2001).

21 March: Nonproliferation successes: Libya, Argentina-Brazil, South Africa, and more Required Reading: “Conclusion,” pp. 321-334 in Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why States Constrain Their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington, D.C.: Wilson Center, 1995). Pick two of these cases to read in detail: Libya: Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, “Who ‘Won’ Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Winter 2005/2006), pp. 47-86 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/is3003_pp047-086.pdf Or Joseph, Robert G., Countering WMD: The Libyan Experience, (Fairfax: National Institute Press © 2009), "Executive Summary: From Tripoli to Tennessee", pp. 1-24. Ukraine: “The Decision to Denuclearize: How Ukraine Became a Non-Nuclear-Weapons State,” Harvard Kennedy School Case C14-98-1425.0, 28 pp. Or William C. Potter, The Politics of Nuclear Renunciation: The Cases of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine (Washington DC: Henry L. Stimson Center, Occasional Paper No. 22, April 1995), http://books.google.com/books? id=DQwAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA24&lpg=PA24&dq=William+C.+Potter, +The+Politics+of+Nuclear+Renunciation:+The+Cases+of+Belarus,+Kazakhstan, +and+Ukraine&source=bl&ots=aYZZtDa584&sig=M9j7FPy3QW2QyEhQdTUXvV- sxaA&hl=en&ei=VwkRTd_NL4P6lwfNlIC4CA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9 &ved=0CDAQ6AEwCA#v=onepage&q=William%20C.%20Potter%2C%20The%20Politics %20of%20Nuclear%20Renunciation%3A%20The%20Cases%20of%20Belarus%2C %20Kazakhstan%2C%20and%20Ukraine&f=false [sections on Ukraine] South Africa: Peter Liberman, “The Rise and Fall of the South African Bomb,” International Security, Fall 2001, 45-86.

Japan: Selig Harrison, “Japan and Nuclear Weapons,” Chapter 1 in Selig Harrison, ed., Japan’s Nuclear Future: The Plutonium Debate and East Asian Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996), pp. 3-44. IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 20

And Hajimi Izumi and Katsuhisa Furukawa, “Not Going Nuclear: Japan’s Response to North Korea’s Nuclear Test,” Arms Control Today, June 2007 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_06/CoverStory Argentina-Brazil: “Argentina” and “Brazil,” pp. 382-406 in Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005). Egypt: Robert J. Einhorn, “Egypt: Frustrated, But Still on a Non-Nuclear Course,” pp. 43-82 in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2004) Taiwan: Derek J. Mitchell, “Taiwan’s Hsin-Chu Program: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor,” pp. 293-313 in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2004) Australia: Jim Walsh, “Surprise Down Under: The Secret History of Australia’s Nuclear Ambitions,” Nonproliferation Review, Fall 1997, pp. 1-20 http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/walsh51.pdf

26 March: Tradeoffs: U.S. Policy Toward the States Outside the NPT: India, Pakistan, and Israel Required Reading (to be updated as the semester proceeds): “Reagan, Bush, and Pakistan’s Bomb,” in Peter Clausen, Nonproliferation and the National Interest: America’s Response to the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: HarperCollins, 1993), pp. 164-171. Avner Cohen and William Burr, “The Untold Story of Israel’s Bomb,” Washington Post, 30 April 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2006/04/28/AR2006042801326_pf.html Ashton B. Carter, “America’s New Strategic Partner?” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=21326332&site=ehost-live&scope=site William J. Burns, testimony on “The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative,” U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, 18 September 2008, http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/congress/senate080918Burns.pdf John C. Rood, testimony on “The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative,” U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, 18 September 2008, http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/congress/senate080918Rood.pdf IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 21

Daryl G. Kimball and Joseph Cirincione, “A Nonproliferation Disaster” (Washington, D.C.: Center for American Progress, 11 December 2006) http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/12/india_deal.html William C. Potter and Jayantha Dhanapala, “The Perils of Nonproliferation Amnesia,” The Hindu, 1 September 2007, http://www.hindu.com/2007/09/01/stories/2007090156261300.htm George Perkovich, Jessica T. Matthews, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, and Jon B. Wolfsthal, “Obligation Six: Solve the Three-State Problem,” in Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005), http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/nuclear.pdf, pp. 42-49. Stimson Center, “Confidence-Building Measures in South Asia” (Washington, D.C.: Stimson Center, September 17, 2010) http://www.stimson.org/research-pages/confidence-building- measures-in-south-asia-/ Recommended Reading: “Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Weapons: For Better or For Worse?” Chapter 3 in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth D. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York: Norton, 2003), pp. 88-124. Avner Cohen and Thomas W. Graham, “An NPT for Non-Members,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 60, No. 3, May/June 2004, pp. 40-44. Sumit Ganguly, “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Fall 2008), pp. 45-70. S. Paul Kapur, “Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Fall 2008), pp. 71-94. R. Nicholas Burns, “America’s Strategic Opportunity With India: The New U.S.-India Partnership,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007, http://ezp- prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=27100623&site=ehost-live&scope=site P.R. Chari, “Nuclear Crisis, Escalation Control, and Deterrence in South Asia” (Washington, D.C.: Stimson Center, August 2003) http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research- pdfs/escalation_chari_1.pdf Michael Krepon, ed., Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia (Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), 288 pp.

28 March: Tools beyond treaties: Cooperative threat reduction, UNSCR 1540, Proliferation Security Initiative, and more Required Reading: Matthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2008 (Cambridge, Mass., and Washington, D.C.: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008). 183 pp. http://www.nti.org/e_research/Securing_the_bomb08.pdf, pp. 21-65. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1540 (New York: United Nations, 28 April 2004) http://www.state.gov/t/isn/c18943.htm IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 22

Matthew Bunn, “‘Appropriate Effective’ Nuclear Security and Accounting: What Is It?,” presentation to “‘Appropriate Effective’ Material Accounting and Physical Protection – Joint Global Initiative/UNSCR 1540 Workshop,” Nashville, Tenn., 18 July 2008, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn-1540-appropriate-effective50.pdf Group of Eight, “The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction” (Kananaskis, Canada: Group of Eight, 27 June 2002) http://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/othr/11514.htm Strengthening Global Partnership Project, Global Partnership Update, No. 10 (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2008), 8 pp. http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080208_gp_update.pdf U.S. Department of State, “Proliferation Security Initiative” (Washington, D.C.: Department of State, 26 May 2008) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/PSI Jofi Joseph, “The Proliferation Security Initiative: Can Interdiction Stop Proliferation?” Arms Control Today, June 2004 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_06/Joseph U.S. Department of State, “Statement of Principles of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism” (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 20 November 2006) http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/141995.pdf “Communique of the Washington Nuclear Security Summit,” The White House, April 13, 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/communiqu-washington-nuclear-security-summit “Work Plan of the Washington Nuclear Security Summit” The White House, April 13, 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/work-plan-washington-nuclear-security-summit Recommended Reading: B. Andemicael et al (UNSCR 1540 Committee Experts), “Comprehensive Review on the Status of Implementation of Resolution 1540 (2004)” (New York: United Nations, 2009). http://www.un.org/sc/1540/docs/CR%20paper(Element%20A).pdf United Nations, Report of the Committee Established Pursuant to Security Council Resolution 1540 (2004), S/2008/493 (New York: United Nations, 30 July 2008), http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3- CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/Disarm%20S2008493.pdf James E. Goodby, Daniel L. Burghart, Cheryl A. Loeb and Charles L. Thornton, Cooperative Threat Reduction for a New Era (Washington, D.C.: Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, September 2004) http://www.ndu.edu/CTNSP/docUploaded/DTP4%20CTR%20for%20a%20New%20Era.pdf Matthew Bunn, “Cooperation to Secure Nuclear Stockpiles: A Case of Constrained Innovation,” Innovations: Technology|Governance|Globalization, Vol. 1, Issue, 1, 2006, pp. 115-137 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/innov0101_cooperationtosecurenuclearstockpiles.pdf Paul F. Walker, “Nunn-Lugar at 15: No Time to Relax Global Threat Reduction Efforts,” Arms Control Today, May 2006, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_05/NunnLugar15 Matthew Bunn, “Building a Genuine U.S.-Russian Partnership for Nuclear Security,” in Proceedings of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 46th Annual Meeting, Phoenix, IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 23

Arizona, 10-14 July 2005 (Northbrook, IL: INMM, 2005), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/inmmpartnership205.pdf

2 April: Preventing nuclear terrorism Required Reading (to be updated as semester proceeds): Matthew Bunn, Yuri Morozov, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Simon Saradzhan, William Tobey, Victor Yesin, Pavel Zolotarev, “The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism,” (Cambridge, Mass.: May 2011). http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat- Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf John Mueller, "The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood," January 2008 http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/APSACHGO.PDF Recommended Reading: Matthew Bunn and Andrew Newman, “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: An Agenda for the Next President” (Cambridge, Mass: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, November 2008), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/Preventing_Nuclear_Terrorism- An_Agenda.pdf Matthew Bunn, “The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism – And Next Steps to Reduce the Danger,” Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate, 2 April 2008, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn-nuclear-terror-risk-test-08.pdfMatthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2008 (Cambridge, Mass., and Washington, D.C.: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008). 183 pp. http://www.nti.org/e_research/Securing_the_bomb08.pdf Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (New York, N.Y.: Henry Holt & Company, 2004) "Illicit Trafficking in Radioactive Materials," in Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan, and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007), pp. 119-138. (Lyudmila Zaitseva, principal author.) Michael Levi, On Nuclear Terrorism (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2007) Ashton Carter, Michael May and William Perry, The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a Nuclear Blast in an American City (Cambridge, MA: Preventive Defense Project, 31 May 2007 May) http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/dayafterworkshopreport_may2007.pdf Thomas B. Cochran and Matthew G. McKinzie, “Detecting Nuclear Smuggling,” Scientific American, April 2008, http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login? url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=31225900&site=ehost- live&scope=site Graham Allison (ed), “Confronting the Spector of Nuclear Terrorism,” special issue of The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 607, September 2006. Charles D. Ferguson and William C. Potter with Amy Sands, Leonard S. Spector, and Fred L. Wehling, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism (New York, N.Y.: Routledge, 2005). IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 24

Michael Bronner, “100 Grams (and Counting): Notes from the Nuclear Underworld” (Cambridge, Mass.: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, June 2008) http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Bronner%20Booklet%20Final.pdf Matthew Bunn, “Incentives for Nuclear Security,” in Proceedings of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 46th Annual Meeting, Phoenix, Arizona, 10-14 July 2005 (Northbrook, IL: INMM, 2005) http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/inmmincentives205.pdf

4 April: Delivery Systems and Missile Defenses Required Reading (to be updated as semester proceeds): Chapter 5, “Missile Proliferation,” in Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), pp. 83-118. Michael Rance, “Technological Aspects of Ballistic Missile Defense,” in Missile Proliferation and Defenses: Problems and Prospects (Monterey, Calif.: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute for International Studies, and Mountbatten Center for International Studies, May 2001) http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op7/op7.pdf Philip Coyle, “The Limits and Liabilities of Missile Defense,” Current History, November 2006 http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=3725 Wade Boese and Miles A. Pomper, “Defending Missile Defense: An Interview with Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering,” Arms Control Today, November 2005, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_11/NOV-OberingCVR Recommended Reading: Steven A. Hildreth, North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, RS21473 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, updated 24 January 2008) http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RS21473.pdf Steven A. Hildreth, Iran’s Ballistic Missile Programs: An Overview (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, updated 21 July 2008) http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RS22758.pdf Missile Proliferation and Defenses: Problems and Prospects (Monterey, Calif.: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute for International Studies, and Mountbatten Center for International Studies, May 2001) http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op7/op7.pdf Mark Smith, “Missing Piece and Gordian Knot: Missile Non-Proliferation” No. 27 (Stockholm: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, ca. 2005) http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No27.pdf Office of Technology Assessment, “The Proliferation of Delivery Systems,” in Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December 1993), pp. 197- 255. http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/9344.html Arms Control Association, “The Missile Technology Control Regime at a Glance” (Washington, D.C.: Arms Control Association, September 2004) http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/mtcr IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 25

Robert Gates and Condoleezza Rice, “The West Needs a Defense System That Works,” Daily Telegraph, 26 April 2007. http://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/rm/2007/apr/83862.htm Daryl G. Kimball, “Rethink European Missile Defense,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2008. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_07-08/focus Ellen Barry and Sophia Kishkovsky, “Russia Warns of Missile Deployment,” New York Times, 5 November 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/world/europe/06russia.html Richard Speier, “Missile Nonproliferation and Missile Defense: Fitting them Together,” Arms Control Today, November 2007, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_11/Speier Lisbeth Gronlund, David Wright, George Lewis, and Philip Coyle, Technical Realities: An Analysis of the 2004 Deployment of a U.S. National Missile Defense System (Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, May 2004) http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/technicalrealities_fullreport.pdf A.M. Sessler, chair, Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned U.S. National Missile Defense System (Cambridge, Mass: Union of Concerned Scientists and MIT Security Studies Program, April 2000) http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/cm_all.pdf

9 April: Preemptive and preventive attacks Required Reading: “Preemption,” pp. 74-81 in George Perkovich, Jessica T. Matthews, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, Jon B. Wolfsthal, Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005), http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/nuclear.pdf Dan Reiter, “Preventive Attacks Against Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Programs: The Track Record,” in William Keller and Gordon Mitchell, eds., Hitting First (Pittsburgh, Penn.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2006), pp. 27-44. James J. Wirtz and James A. Russell, “U.S. Policy on Preventive War and Preemption,” The Nonproliferation Review, Spring 2003, pp. 113-123. http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/faculty/biolinks/russell/wirtz-Russell.pdf Harald Müller, “WMD Crisis: Law Instead of Lawless Self-Help,” No. 37 (Stockholm: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, 2005), 16 pp. http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No37.pdf Recommended Reading: Ivo Daalder and James Steinberg, “The Future of Preemption,” The National Interest, Vol. 1, No. 2 (Winter 2005) Anthony Clark Arend, “International Law and the Preemptive Use of Military Force,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Spring 2003), pp. 89-103 http://ezp- prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=9275687&site=ehost-live&scope=site IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 26

Robert S. Litwak, “Nonproliferation and the Use of Force,” in Janne E. Nolan, Bernard I. Finel, and Brian D. Finlay, eds., Ultimate Security: Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (New York: Century Foundation Press, 2003) pp. 75-106. Richard Betts, “The Osirak Fallacy,” The National Interest, Vol. 83 (Spring 2006), pp. 22-25 http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx? direct=true&db=aph&AN=20545270&site=ehost-live&scope=site Jeremy Tamsett, “The Israeli Bombing of Osiraq Reconsidered: Successful Counterproliferation?” Nonproliferation Review vol. 11 (Fall-Winter 2004), pp. 70-85. http://www.informaworld.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/smpp/ftinterface~content= a790426472~fulltext=713240930

11 April: Simulation: National Security Council Meeting on Syrian Nuclear Program Required Reading (to be updated as the semester proceeds): Leonard S. Spector and Avner Cohen, “Israel’s Airstrike on Syria’s Reactor: Implications for the Nonproliferation Regime,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2008, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_07-08/SpectorCohen Richard Follath and Holger Stark, “The Story of ‘Operation Orchard’: How Israel Destroyed Syria's Al Kibar Nuclear Reactor,” Der Spiegel, 2 November 2009 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,658663,00.html James M. Acton, Mark Fitzpatrick, and Pierre Goldschmidt, “The IAEA Should Call for a Special Inspection in Syria” (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 26 February 2009), http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22791 International Atomic Energy Agency, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic,” GOV/2009/75 (Vienna: IAEA, 16 November 2009) http://www.isis- online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_Report_Syria_16November2009pdf_1.pdf

16 April: Nuclear arms reductions and disarmament Required Reading (to be updated as semester proceeds): George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007 http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/6731276.html George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “Toward a Nuclear-Free World,” Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2008, http://www.nti.org/c_press/TOWARD_A_NUCLEAR_FREE_WORLD_OPED_011508.pdf Harold Brown, “New Nuclear Realities,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Winter 2007/2008), pp. 7-22 http://www.twq.com/08winter/docs/08winter_brown.pdf Anatoli Diakov and Eugene Miasnikov, “ReSTART: The Need for a New U.S.-Russian Strategic Arms Agreement,” Arms Control Today, September 2006 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_09/restart IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 27

Bruce G. Blair, Harold A. Feiveson. and Frank N. von Hippel, “Taking Nuclear Weapons Off Alert,” Scientific American, November 1997, pp. 74-81.http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login? url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=9711214895&site=ehost- live&scope=site Commission of Eminent Persons, Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order for Peace and Prosperity: The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond, GOV/2008/22-GC(52)/INF/4 (Vienna: IAEA, May 2008), pp. 15-17 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/gov2008-22gc52inf-4.pdf Recommended Reading: John P. Holdren, Getting to Zero: Is Pursuing a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World Too Difficult? Too Dangerous? Too Distracting?” Discussion Paper 98-24 (Cambridge, Mass.: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, April 1998), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/disc_paper_98_24.pdf George Perkovich and James Acton, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, Adelphi Paper 396 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, August 2008), 130 pp. Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal, “The Logic of Zero: Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, http://ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/login? url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=34741589&site=ehost- live&scope=site William C. Potter and Nikolai Sokov, “Practical Measures to Reduce the Risks Presented by Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons” No. 8 (Stockholm: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, ca. 2004) http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No8.pdf General John M. Shalikashvili (USA, ret.), Findings and Recommendations Concerning the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, January 2001), http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/ctbtpage/ctbt_report.html#report U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Technical Issues Related to Ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 2002), http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10471 Matthew Bunn, “Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty,” in Nuclear Threat Initiative Research Library: Securing the Bomb, http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/ending/fmct.asp (last updated by Anthony Wier, 1 August 2006) Mohammed ElBaradei, “Reviving Nuclear Disarmament,” Oslo, Norway, 26 February 2008 http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2008/ebsp2008n002.html Harold A. Feiveson, ed., The Nuclear Turning Point: A Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-Alerting of Nuclear Weapons (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999)

18 April: Processes for making nonproliferation decisions Readings to be provided. IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 28

23 April: Nuclear weapons policy for the future Required Reading (to be updated as semester proceeds): “Executive Summary,” in William J. Perry (chair), James R. Schlesinger (vice-chair), America’s Strategic Posture: The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute for Peace, 2009) http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf Hans M. Kristensen and Ivan Oelrich, “Lots of Hedging, Little Leading: An Analysis of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission Report,” Arms Control Today, June 2009 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_6/KristensenOelrich Sidney Drell and James Goodby, What Are Nuclear Weapons For? Recommendations for Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces (Washington, D.C.: Arms Control Association, October 2007) http://www.armscontrol.org/pdf/20071104_Drell_Goodby_07_new.pdf “Executive Summary,” in U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997), pp. 1-10, http://www.nap.edu/nap-cgi/report.cgi? record_id=5796&type=pdfxsum Recommended Reading: William Perry and Brent Scowcroft, co-chairs, U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, D.C.: Council on Foreign Relations, 2009) http://books.google.com/books? id=YK5pHeX9i14C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q& f=false Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman and Secretay of Defense Robert Gates, National Security and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense, September 2008) 28 pp. http://www.defenselink.mil/news/nuclearweaponspolicy.pdf U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997). JASON, Lifetime Extension Program: Executive Summary, JSR-09-334E (McLean, Virginia: JASON Program Office, The Mitre Corporation, September 9, 2009), http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/lep.pdf

April 25: Summing up: stemming the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons Required Reading: Joint Statement by President Barack Obama of the United States of America and President Dmitry Medvedev of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Cooperation, July 6, 2009, Barack Obama, “Confronting New Threats,” 16 July 2008, http://www.barackobama.com/2008/07/16/remarks_of_senator_barack_obam_95.php George Perkovich, Jessica T. Matthews, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, Jon B. Wolfsthal, Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005), pp. 33-41, 51-71, 127-158. http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/nuclear.pdf IGA-232 Syllabus, 12/13/11 29

Annex 1, “WMDC Recommendations,” in Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, Hans Blix, chair, Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Arms (Stockholm: WMDC, 2006), http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/Weapons_of_Terror.pdf, pp. 188-205. Recommended Reading: Bob Graham (chair), World at Risk: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism (New York: Vintage, December 2008) http://documents.scribd.com/docs/15bq1nrl9aerfu0yu9qd.pdf Deepti Choubey, Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable? (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2008), 26 pp. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/new_nuclear_bargains2.pdf Arms Control Association, “Correcting the Record: Arms Experts Respond to Secretary Rice’s Claims About Bush Administration Nuclear Control Accomplishments” (Washington, D.C.: Arms Control Association, 10 September 2008 http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3346 Steven J. Hadley, “Remarks on the 5th Anniversary of the Proliferation Security Initiative,” 28 May 2008 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm? fa=view&id=20173&prog=zgp&proj=znpp