The World at Six Billion Fact Sheet

The Growing Numbers 1. The Twentieth Century began with a population of less than 2 billion people. The Twenty-First Century began with more than 6 billion. 2. We are adding one billion people every 14 years. Projections are that world population will range from 7.9 billion to 10.9 billion in the year 2050. 3. It has taken just 12 years for the world to add the most recent billion people. This is the shortest period of time in world history for a billion people to be added. 4. The current annual increase is 78 million. 5. Of the 78 million people currently added to the world each year, 95 percent live in poorly developed regions. 6. Eighty percent of the world currently resides in less developed regions. At the beginning of the last century, 70 percent did so. By 2050, the share of the world’s population living in the less developed regions will have risen to 90 percent. The Environmental Impact 7. Fresh water is essential to health, economic development, and life itself. Due to mismanagement, over 40% of the groundwater in the United State is contaminated by industrial, agricultural and household pollution. Currently, 434 million people worldwide face either water stressed or water scarce conditions. Twenty-five countries currently experience water stress, but by 2025, that number is projected to grow to between 36 and 40 countries. Africa, in particular, is facing significant water scarcity and is experiencing high levels of population growth. Presently 14 African countries experience some form of water stress; by 2025, another 11 countries will join them. 8. Six million acres of prime farmland – an area the size of Vermont – were lost in the U.S. between 1982 and 1992 due to urban expansion, deforestation, unsustainable farming practices, and animal over-grazing. Worldwide agricultural experts debate how long crop yields will keep up with population growth. An estimated 415 million people already are living in countries that have less good farm land than is needed to provide adequate food supplies. World hunger could become increasingly more of an issue if population growth continues at projected rates. 9. The Earth’s atmosphere is now warming at the fastest rate in recorded history. This trend is predicted to cause extensive damage to forests, marine ecosystems, and agriculture. Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are at their highest levels ever. The United States, by far the largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions, contributed close to 24 percent of all emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture. One-fifth of the world’s population (the richest countries) accounted for 62 percent of the emissions in 1996 while the much poorer fifth accounted for less than 2 percent. 10. The United States constitutes less than 5% of the world’s population, but is responsible for 26% of the world’s annual energy consumption, including 25% of fossil fuels. On average, one American consumes as much energy as 2.1 Germans, 6.9 Iraqis, 12.1 Columbians, 28.3 Indians, 127 Haitians, or 395 Ethiopians. If everyone on Earth lived like the average American, it would require four more earths to provide all the material and energy she or he currently uses.

Sources: United Nations Population Division; ZPG, the Population Connection; Population Action International; Worldwatch Institute Handout 1 Answer Key

Refer to the World Population and Environment Fact Sheet. 1. Rank the countries according to the 2001 average annual personal income (US$), from poorest to richest: Country 2001 Avg. Personal Income (US$) Nigeria 840 Haiti 1,700 Bangladesh 1,750 Pakistan 2,100 India 2,540 Indonesia 3,000 Egypt 3,700 China 4,600 Brazil 7,400 Russia 8,800 Germany 26,600 Japan 28,000 USA 36,300

2. CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions are a measure of the industrial activity of a country. There are some environmental concerns that high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are causing global warming (refer to “The World at Six Billion Fact Sheet” fact #9).

Calculate the CO2 emissions per capita for each country as a percentage of the emissions per capita of the United States. Then, rank those countries from lowest CO2 emitting to highest CO2 emitting:

EXAMPLE:

A country emitted 3.05 metric tons per capita in 1992, and the USA emitted 19.11 tons.

100 x (3.05 ÷ 19.11) = 16.0%

Country CO2 Emissions as a percentage of USA's CO2 emissions Haiti 0.6 Bangladesh 0.8 Pakistan 3.1 India 4.6 Nigeria 5.0 Indonesia 5.2 Brazil 7.4 Egypt 8.1 China 12.0 Japan 46.0 Germany 57.0 Russia 74.0 (USA) 100.0 3. For each country calculate the projected percentage increase in population (to the nearest tenth of a percent) between 1996 and 2025. Then rank those countries from most rapidly growing to most slowly growing.

EXAMPLE: A country had a population of 96.5 million in 1996 and a projected population of 120.1 million in 2025.

100 x (120.1 – 96.5) ÷ 96.5 = 24.5% increase.

Country Projected percentage increase in population, 1996 to 2025 Nigeria 136.8 Pakistan 74.5 Haiti 53.4 Egypt 53.2 Bangladesh 46.7 India 45.8 Indonesia 37.3 USA 26.4 Brazil 26.0 China 22.5 Russia 3.7 Japan 0.0 Germany -2.9

3b: You should have calculated that, while all of the other countries are projected to have positive increases in their populations, Germany is projected to have a negative increase in population. What does this mean?

(Answer: The population of Germany is projected to decrease from 1996 to 2025) 4. Calculate the percentage decrease (to the nearest tenth of a percent) of water available per capita between 1990 and 2025. Then, rank the countries from those losing the most water to those losing the least water.

EXAMPLE: A country had 2,200 cubic meters per capita of water available in 1990, and 1,600 in 2025.

100 x (2,200 – 1600) ÷ 2,200 = 27.3% decrease

Country Percentage rate loss of water per capita, 1990 to 2025 Nigeria 59.7 Pakistan 57.2 Haiti 50.6 Bangladesh 44.9 Egypt 42.2 India 38.9 Brazil 35.5 Indonesia 33.7 USA 24.5 China 24.3 Russia 9.0 Japan -1.6 Germany -3.8

5. Calculate the decrease in cropland available per capita between 1990 and 2025 for each country. Then rank the countries from those losing cropland most rapidly to those losing cropland less rapidly.

Country Percentage rate of loss of cropland per capita, 1990 to 2025 Nigeria 59 Pakistan 59 Haiti 50 Bangladesh 44 Egypt 40 India 40 Brazil 35 Indonesia 33 China 25 USA 24 Russia 9 Germany 0 Japan 0 6. By 2050, the global village is projected to grow to nearly 200 people, according to the book, If the World Were a Village. This is 100% growth from 1996. According to “The World at Six Billion Fact Sheet”, the greatest percentage of growth will occur in the poorest and least developed countries, such as Nigeria, Haiti, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. In a paragraph, draw your own conclusions and suggest policies our world leaders might make to minimize the impact of the population growth on the world’s limited resources. Support your conclusions with data from your answers to questions 1 through 5.

Students might suggest that world leaders should educate people to the concerns of population growth. Policies should also educate and regulate groundwater contamination; agricultural and land use education is imperative as well.

Students might also suggest that the United States needs to be more proactive in its use of resources. Topics might include nuclear power, solar energy, cleaner-burning fuels, and also education about population growth. The Population Connection states “Population growth and rapid consumption of resources are equal parts of environmental degradation. The United States could reduce our consumption of resources and generation of pollution by half today, but if we did so without slowing our growth rate, the difference would be made up in 116 years, when our population is expected to be double of what it is now.” Handout 1

Refer to the World Population and Environment Fact Sheet. 1. Rank the countries according to the 2001 average annual personal income (US$), from poorest to richest:

Country 2001 Avg. Personal Income (US$)

2. CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions are a measure of the industrial activity of a country. There are some environmental concerns that high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are causing global warming (refer to “The World at Six Billion Fact Sheet” fact #9).

Calculate the CO2 emissions per capita for each country as a percentage of the emissions per capita of the United States. Then, rank those countries from lowest CO2 emitting to highest CO2 emitting: EXAMPLE: A country emitted 3.05 metric tons per capita in 1992, and the USA emitted 19.11 tons. 100 x (3.05 ÷ 19.11) = 16.0%

Country CO2 Emissions as a percentage of USA's CO2 emissions

(USA) 100.0 3. For each country calculate the projected percentage increase in population (to the nearest tenth of a percent) between 1996 and 2025. Then rank those countries from most rapidly growing to most slowly growing.

EXAMPLE: A country had a population of 96.5 million in 1996 and a projected population of 120.1 million in 2025.

100 x (120.1 – 96.5) ÷ 96.5) = 24.5% increase.

Country Projected percentage increase in population, 1996 to 2025

3.: You should have calculated that, while all of the other countries are projected to have positive increases in their populations, Germany is projected to have a negative increase in population. What does this mean? 4: Calculate the percentage decrease (to the nearest tenth of a percent) of water available per capita between 1990 and 2025. Then, rank the countries from those losing the most water to those losing the least water.

EXAMPLE: A country had 2,200 cubic meters per capita of water available in 1990, and 1,600 in 2025. 100 x (2,200 – 1600) ÷ 2,200) = 27.3% decrease

Country Percentage rate loss of water per capita, 1990 to 2025 5: Calculate the decrease in cropland available per capita between 1990 and 2025 for each country. Then rank the countries from those losing cropland most rapidly to those losing cropland less rapidly.

Country Percentage rate of loss of cropland per capita, 1990 to 2025

6. By 2050, the global village is projected to grow to nearly 200 people, according to the book, If the World Were a Village. This is 100% growth from 1996. According to “The World at Six Billion Fact Sheet”, the greatest percentage of growth will occur in the poorest and least developed countries, such as Nigeria, Haiti, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. In a paragraph, draw your own conclusions and suggest policies our world leaders might make to minimize the impact of the population growth on the world’s limited resources. Support your conclusions with data from your answers to questions 1 through 5.