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Rajasthan Prepoll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings

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Rajasthan Prepoll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings Q1: In a few days from now, assembly elections are going to be held in Rajasthan. Will you vote in these elections? N (%) 1: No 99 2.0 2: Yes 4828 96.1 8: Don't know/Can't say/No response 98 2.0 Total 5026 100.0 a: (If yes in Q1 ) Will you definitely vote in any condition or is it possible that you may not be able to vote for some reason? N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: Definitely vote 3956 78.7 79.2 2: Might not vote for some reason 626 12.4 12.5 8: Don't know/Can't say/No response 410 8.2 8.2 Total 4991 99.3 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 34 .7 Total 5026 100.0 Q2: If Assembly elections in Rajasthan are held tomorrow which party will you vote for? N (%) 01: Congress 1987 39.5 02: BJP 1949 38.8 03: BSP 199 4.0 05: CPI 9 .2 06: CPI-M 50 1.0 07: NCP 1 .0 09: JD(U) 1 .0 10: SP 6 .1 11: LJP 5 .1 12: Shiv Sena 1 .0 14: AAP 51 1.0 17: RLD 11 .2 19: AIFB 2 .0 20: IUML 2 .0 22: NPP 2 .0 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 1 Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings N (%) 25: BVP 31 .6 26: RLP 362 7.2 92: NOTA 21 .4 95: Independent 281 5.6 97: Other smaller party 29 .6 98: Can't say/No response 25 .5 Total 5026 100.0 a: (If answered in Q2 ) The party for which you voted now, will you vote for the same party on the day of voting or your decision may change? N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: Vote for the same party 4348 86.5 87.2 2: Decision may change 330 6.6 6.6 8: Don't know/Can't say/No response 309 6.2 6.2 Total 4987 99.2 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 39 .8 Total 5026 100.0 b: (If decision might chance in Q2a ) When will you finally make up your mind about whom to vote for? N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: On the day of voting 91 1.8 27.5 2: A day or two before voting 90 1.8 27.2 3: Few days before voting 49 1.0 14.7 7: Others 2 .0 .7 8: Can't say 98 2.0 29.8 Total 330 6.6 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 4696 93.4 Total 5026 100.0 Q3: What will be the most important issue for you while voting in the coming assembly election? N (%) 01: Employment/Unemployment/Lack of jobs 1153 22.9 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 2 Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings N (%) 02: Poverty/the gap between rich and poor/inequality 190 3.8 03: Hunger/food/clothes 4 .1 04: Housing related 60 1.2 05: Inflation/rising prices 762 15.2 06: Increasing prices of petrol, diesel 52 1.0 07: Development/lack of development 339 6.7 08: Good governance 41 .8 09: Lack of good governance 16 .3 10: Change of regime/anti-incumbent 88 1.7 11: Want the government to return/pro-incumbent 63 1.2 12: Corruption 196 3.9 13: Corruption of Central government 1 .0 14: PNB/Nirav Modi scam 2 .0 16: Corruption of state government 14 .3 17: Bribery 25 .5 18: Roads, bridges, transport, bus service 262 5.2 19: Water related/clean drinking water 433 8.6 20: Electricity related/electricity supply 75 1.5 21: Health/hospital/doctors 95 1.9 22: Education/school/college/studies/teachers 121 2.4 23: Farmers’ problems/crisis in the farm sector 116 2.3 24: Crop prices/not getting the right price for crops 47 .9 25: Communalism, religious tension, atrocities against minorities 5 .1 26: Casteism, caste based discrimination 78 1.6 27: Discrimination against upper castes 2 .0 28: Discrimination against women 27 .5 29: Safety of women/rape/harassment 122 2.4 30: Crime/poor law and order situation 4 .1 31: Terrorism 3 .1 32: Reservation 86 1.7 33: Lack of cleanliness, sanitation 25 .5 34: Intolerance/curbs on freedom of expression 3 .1 35: Dynastic politics, nepotism 3 .1 36: Pollution 11 .2 37: Climate change 4 .1 38: Environmental degradation 5 .1 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 3 Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings N (%) 39: Black money problem 6 .1 40: Demonetization 20 .4 41: GST 7 .1 42: Alcoholism/drugs 1 .0 43: Exam paper leaks/SSC/CBSE 5 .1 44: Problems of government employees 1 .0 45: Salary, pension, wages, allowances 15 .3 46: Cow protection/cow killing 14 .3 47: Violence in the name of cow protection 1 .0 48: Ayodhya, Ram temple issue 18 .3 49: Issue of triple talaaq 1 .0 50: SC-ST Act controversy 4 .1 51: Tribal rights/problems 4 .1 53: Problem of Naxalism 2 .0 54: Vote or support for Modi 16 .3 57: Vote for Congress 9 .2 58: Vote for BJP 24 .5 61: Vote for a candidate 10 .2 62: Candidate’s caste or religion 1 .0 63: Candidate’s work/performance 8 .2 64: MLA’s good work/performance 6 .1 65: MLA’s bad work/performance 4 .1 66: Vote for Shivraj Singh Chouhan 0 .0 74: Vote for Vasundhara Raje 3 .1 76: Vote for Sachin Pilot 1 .0 77: Vote for Ashok Gehlot 6 .1 97: Some other issues 28 .6 98: Can’t say 278 5.5 Total 5026 100.0 Q4: While deciding whom to vote for in the assembly election, what would matter to you the most –party, local candidate or Chief Ministerial candidate of a party? N (%) 1: Party 1836 36.5 2: Candidate 2524 50.2 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 4 Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings N (%) 3: Chief Ministerial candidate 203 4.0 4: Narendra Modi 255 5.1 5: Rahul Gandhi 23 .5 7: Others 41 .8 8: No opinion 142 2.8 Total 5026 100.0 a: (If candidate ) Will you vote looking at the work done by the candidate or the candidate’s experience or the candidate’s caste/religion or the candidate’s personality? N (%) Valid (%) Valid 1: Work 1588 31.6 62.9 2: Experience 681 13.5 27.0 3: Caste/religion 33 .7 1.3 4: Personality 154 3.1 6.1 5: Domicile 17 .3 .7 7: Other 5 .1 .2 8: No response 46 .9 1.8 Total 2524 50.2 100.0 Missing 9: N.A. 2501 49.8 Total 5026 100.0 Q5: After this election who would you prefer as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan? N (%) 01: Vasundhara Raje 1385 27.6 02: Gulab Chand Kataria 196 3.9 03: Madan Lal Saini 16 .3 04: Gajendra Singh Shekhawat 8 .2 05: Kirori Lal Meena 14 .3 06: Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore 29 .6 07: Arjun Ram Meghwal 4 .1 08: P.P. Choudhary 1 .0 10: Nand Lal Meena 12 .2 11: Rajendra Rathore 29 .6 12: Kali Charan Saraf 9 .2 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 5 Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings N (%) 13: Prabhu Lal Saini 15 .3 14: Gajendra Singh 26 .5 15: Anyone/any other leader from BJP 92 1.8 16: Sachin Pilot 720 14.3 17: Ashok Gehlot 1273 25.3 18: CP Joshi 14 .3 19: Gopal Singh Shekhawat 1 .0 21: Bhanwarlal Meghwal 3 .1 22: Ashok Bairwa 2 .0 23: Shanti Dhariwal 1 .0 26: Raghuvirsingh Meena 5 .1 27: Rameshwar Dudi 1 .0 29: Raghu Sharma 1 .0 30: Girija Vyas 4 .1 31: Anyone/any other leader from Congress 14 .3 32: Hanuman Beniwal 400 8.0 33: Ghanshyam Tiwari 14 .3 34: Manvendra Singh 7 .1 35: Mayawati 72 1.4 36: Rahul Gandhi 15 .3 38: Narendra Modi 15 .3 97: Any other non-Congress, non-BJP leader 64 1.3 98: Can’t say/No response 561 11.2 Total 5026 100.0 Q6: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the ruling BJP state government in Rajasthan? N (%) 1: Fully satisfied 1141 22.7 2: Somewhat satisfied 1450 28.8 3: Somewhat dissatisfied 995 19.8 4: Fully dissatisfied 1299 25.9 8: No response 140 2.8 Total 5026 100.0 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 6 Rajasthan Pre-poll 2018 Round II-Survey Findings Q7: In deciding who to vote, will you decide on your own or go by someone’s advice? N (%) 1: Own 4110 81.8 2: Go by someone’s advice 654 13.0 8: Can't say 244 4.9 9: N.A. 18 .4 Total 5026 100.0 a: (If go by someone’s advice in Q7 ) Whose advice will you pay attention to/go by the most? N (%) Valid (%) Valid 01: Local Political Leader 20 .4 3.0 02: Husband/Wife 237 4.7 36.3 03: Other family members 269 5.4 41.1 04: Religious leader 26 .5 4.0 05: Friend/Neighbour 52 1.0 7.9 06: Colleagues/Co-Workers 18 .4 2.7 07: Village Sarpanch/Pradhan 3 .1 .5 97: Others 0 .0 .0 98: Can't say 29 .6 4.4 Total 654 13.0 100.0 Missing 99: N.A.
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