Questionnaire to Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment

Questionnaire for Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment 1

QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HANDBOOK ON SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

This questionnaire has been designed by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO) in the frame of “LEG follow up and quality methodology” Eurostat grant. The data thus obtained will be published on the website of the HCSO (www.ksh.hu/hosa ) and CIRCA.

Before completing the questionnaire please read carefully the following.

Guidelines for the use of Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment Questionnaire:

Who should fill in the HoSA Questionnaire? The questionnaire has been designed to be filled in by seasonal adjustment experts of the organisation. Depending on the organisational set up, it might be useful to involve a methodologist and the greatest number possible of subject matter specialists. The questionnaire should be answered electronically by either clicking on boxes or filling in text in the highlighted fields.

The objectives of HoSA Seasonal adjustment is routinely done in statistical offices nowadays. The methods have great flexibility concerning adjustment settings and model selection. Because of this flexibility the results of seasonal adjustment are often considered fairly subjective. The project aims at the improving of the quality of statistical data production process in the European Statistical System.

The structure of the HoSA Questionnaire The questionnaire is divided into two sections. The currently used methods and practices in the frame of seasonal adjustment will be collected from the first part. The second part gives assistance to compile a standardized system of seasonal adjustment. If your definitions and classifications used in seasonal adjustment procedures don’t correspond to those given in the questionnaire, please indicate how they are at variance. You are requested to give any specific indications or explanations which help towards a correct interpretation of your data.

Please send back your reply before 10 April 2006 to [email protected]

Any extra information about the seasonal adjustment practices in your organisation are welcome (in native language, too).

For any more information concerning the questionnaire, please contact Erika Földesi by e- mail: [email protected] or by fax: +36 1 345 686 Questionnaire for Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment 2

Administrative information

Organisation: Address:

RESPONDENT Surname : Male First Name: Female Job title: Department/Service/Unit: Phone#: Fax#: E-mail: Questionnaire for Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment 3

I. Seasonal Adjustment methods and Dissemination Policy (multiple answers are possible)

1. Is there a unified seasonal adjustment procedure in your office/organisation? Yes since Yes, on department/unit level No Other (please specify)

2. Is there a seasonal adjustment expert group in your office/organisation? Yes No Other (please specify)

3. Has your office any methodological description about seasonal adjustment? Yes No Is in progress Is scheduled Other (please specify)

4. Which of the following method(s) is (are) used in your organisation for the SA? Currently used No more used Planned Tramo/Seats X12-ARIMA X11-ARIMA X13-ARIMA/SEATS Other (please specify)

5. Why are you using this method(s)? Recommended method (by Eurostat) Historical reasons Decision after internal testing and evaluation Other reasons (please specify) 6. If you use more methods, why? Advantage of specific features Depends on lengths of time series Possibility of cross-checking Historical reasons Other reasons (please specify)

7. What kind of software do you use? Please specify the version number! Software Version Demetra Tramo/Seats X12-ARIMA Other (please specify)

How many series are adjusted in your office or/and in your unit? Please give detailed 8. information about the series and number of observations. Number Min. Max. Average Level of time number number of number of Comments series of obs. obs. obs. In the whole Monthly office Quarterly In your Monthly

unit Quarterly Other, Other,

9. Do you use projected or concurrent adjustment? Projected adjustment Concurrent adjustment

10. How often do you update the models and parameters in the SA procedure? New Other Other/ Update observations Once a year periodicity Comments append (in month) Model Parameter Other, Other, 11. For how many of your series do you aggregate with the following methods? All >75% 50-75% 25-50% <25% None Direct Indirect Mixed Other,

12. What is the main practice in the transformation of the data? Test for log-transformation In most cases logarithm None In most cases other transformation (please specify) Comments

13. Which regressors do you take in consideration? Test and Consider independent Isn’t in Comments consider from the t-value consideration Trading day (TD) Trading day (TD) &

Specific holidays Working day (WD) Working day (WD) &

specific holidays Leap-year (LY) Easter (EE) Other, (please spec.)

Did it occur that the t-value of the LY was significant and the WD/TD wasn’t? How did you 14. solve the problem? Yes Solution: No, never Other special problem: Solution:

15. Which types of outliers are taken in consideration? Additive outlier Temporary change Level shift Others (please specify) 16. How do you detect these types of outliers? Always by test In most cases by test In most cases experts define Only experts define Other (please specify)

17. What do the experts validate during the seasonal adjusting process? The outliers The type of transformation The regressors The result Nothing Others (please specify)

18. What do you apply the seasonal adjusted time series to? To publishing To imputing To validating To forecasting To others (please specify)

19. What type of data do you publish? Raw data SA data Trend Working-day adjusted data Others

20. What type of meta information do you publish? Type of meta information For internal For external For Eurostat Comments usage usage The method(s) used The parameters used in the SA The working/trading day

adjustment applied Documentation about events

explaining outliers Other metadata Other information 21. On which media do you disseminate the data? Paper publications Internet publications CD-ROMs Reference databases Ad hoc users’ queries Other (please specify)

22. Please specify some problem with its solution in connection with seasonal adjustment! Problem: Solution: Problem: Solution: Problem: Solution:

Please answer the next part of the questionnaire! Questionnaire for Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment 8

II. The Quality of Seasonal Adjustment process (multiple answers are possible)

Which are the most used indicators to evaluate quality of the SA process? 23. (rating from 1 for ‘not relevant’ to 5 for ‘very significant’) Not Rating Comments used 1 2 3 4 5 a. Graphical inspection b. Autocorrelation function c. Statistics on residuals d. Fit statistics e. Stability over time Others (please specify)

23/ What measures do you use in the graphical inspections? a. (if the answer in 23.a. was not used skip to 23.b.) Mean and standard deviation of the raw and SA series Standard deviation relative to trend MCD/QCD statistics (a volatility measure) Intuitively on face of it Other (please specify)

23/ What do you examine in terms of the autocorrelation pattern? b. (if the answer in 23.b. was not used skip to 23.c.) The significant peaks of the autocorrelogram of the raw series. The Box-Pierce statistics for seasonality F-test for seasonality Other (please specify) 23/ Which statistics on residual do you use for quality of ARIMA modelling? c. (if the answer in 23.c. was not used skip to 23.d.) Ljung-Box Q-statistics Ljung-Box Q-statistics for squared residuals Box-Pierce Q-statistics Box-Pierce Q-statistics for squared residual Normality test Other (please specify)

23/ What kind of fit statistics do you provide in your practice? d. (if the answer in 23.d. was not used skip to 23.e.) AIC AICC BIC Other (please specify)

23/ Do you examine the stability of the results over time? e. (if the answer in 23.e. was not used skip to 24.) Every time In special case (please specify) Never Comments

24. Do you use a quality measure for the results? M-Statistics SA quality index No Other (please specify)

General additional comments:

Thank you for your assistance in completing this questionnaire!