• Abstract and Figures
• Public Full-text

This document can be made available in large print, on audio cassette, in Braille and in other languages CONTENTS

Para No.

1. INTRODUCTION Employment Land Reviews – Guidance Note 1.1 Scope and Purpose of the Mole Valley Employment 1.4 Land Review.

2. POLICY BACKGROUND National Policy Context 2.2 Regional and Local Planning Context 2.21 Other Strategies and Economic Initiatives 2.30 Sustainability Appraisal 2.35

[ELR guidance - Stage 1: Taking Stock Of The Existing Situation] 3. EXISTING SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LAND Total Floorspace Stock and Net Change 2000-2007 3.1 The Age of Stock of Employment Floorspace 3.7 Existing Employment Sites In Mole Valley. 3.9 Outstanding Commercial Planning Permissions and 3.13 Vacant Commercial Premises. Commentary on the Level of Outstanding Permissions 3.15 and Vacant Floorspace Take Up of Floorspace. 3.22 A Review of the Sites with Planning Permission and 3.32 Vacant Premises [ELR guidance - Stage 3]

4. THE LOCAL LABOUR FORCE AND FIRMS Labour Supply 4.1 Firms in Mole Valley 4.12 Worker Floorspace Ratios 4.14

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[ELR guidance - Stage 2: Creating A Picture Of Future Requirements] 5. ESTIMATING FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS Method 1. Forecast Growth Based on Past Trends of 5.2 Net Increases in Floorspace Method 2. Demand Led Forecast Growth in 5.5 Employment Comparison of Demand Led Forecast Jobs and 5.21 Floorspace Requirements with Forecast Growth of Jobs Based on Available Floorspace Summaries and Conclusions 5.24

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TABLES, MAPS AND DIAGRAMS (paras to be checked)

Table 1 - Total Floorspace Stock 2000-2007 3.1 Table 2 - Age of Commercial Floorspace Stock 3.4 Table 3 - Permissions and Vacant Premises and 3.11 Total Available Floorspace Table 4 - Vacant Floorspace Rates 3.19 Table 5 - Take Up of Permissions and Net Changes 3.20 in Floorspace Table 6 - Completed New Developments and 3.22 Changes in Use – Take Up Table 7 - Take Up of Vacant Premises 3.25 Table 8 - Total Annual Floorspace Take Up 3.27 Table 9 - Employment and Commuting Trends in 4.5 Mole Valley Table 10 - Occupations 4.9 Table 11 - Qualifications 4.10 Table 12 – ABI Estimates of Total Jobs Table 13 - Total Jobs Full Time/Part-Time and by 4.11 Employment Sector - 2006 Table 14 - Main Employment by Sector - 2006 4.11 Table 15 - Firms in Mole Valley Table 16 - Firms by Sector 4.12 Table 17 - Size of Firms - Employees 4.13 Table 18 - Main Employment Areas – Jobs by Ward 4.14 Table 19 - Town Centre Activity - 2002 4.14 Table 20 - Worker Floorspace Ratios 4.15 Table 21a - Net Future Floorspace 5.2 b - Employment Growth to 2016 5.3 c - Employment Growth to 2021 5.5 Table 22 - Experian Employment Forecasts 5.7 Table 23 - Population Projections 5.10 Table 24 - Increase In Jobs by Land Use Class 5.14

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Table 25 - Comparison of Floorspace Requirement 5.18 with Available Floorspace Table 26 - Employment Generated from Existing 5.20 Available Floorspace.

Figure A - Permissions and Vacant Premises 3.12 Figure B - Outstanding Permissions and Vacant 3.18 Premises by Locality Figure C - Unemployment Rates 2007-2008 4.6

Map 1 - Leatherhead – Location of Main 3.9 Employment Areas Map 2 - Dorking – Location of main Employment 3.9 Areas

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 6 ANNEXES

Annex 1 Table 7 - Full data

Annex 2 Table of Outstanding Permissions Floorspace at 31 March 2008.

Annex 3 Table of Vacant Floorspace from 31 March 2008

Annex 4 Class B1-B8 Planning Permissions and Vacant Premises at March 2008 – Individual Summaries.

Annex 5 Experian Employment Forecast for Surrey County Council - 2006.

Annex 6 A Review of the Suitably Located Employment Sites Identified in the Mole Valley Local Plan.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 This Local Economy and Employment Land Review has been prepared to assist the preparation of the Core Strategy Development Plan Document which will establish the Council’s over-arching approach to the spatial planning of employment land in Mole Valley.

 The Review has been based on the Good Practice Guide for Employment Land Reviews.

 There is a need to retain a flexible supply of employment land to accord with the intentions of draft PPS4 and the Government recommended changes to the South East Plan.

 To meet these national and regional policy requirements, the District can absorb some employment growth given the implementation of existing planning permissions and the take up of vacant premises.

 However, significant employment growth would give rise to problems such as local labour shortages, increased in-commuting, cumulative impacts on infrastructure and other resources, and the wider environment of the District.

ERRATA

Since the publication of this document in November 2008 a couple of minor typographical and calculation errors have been identified. They do not affect the conclusions of the Review.

The revisions have been incorporated into this document. They are at Table 24 (page 44) and to paragraph 5.26 (page 47). The changes are shown in the form of strikethrough for deletions and underlining for additions to text.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 8 1. INTRODUCTION

Employment Land Reviews – Guidance Note

1.1 The Guidance Note on preparing employment land reviews was published by the ODPM in December 2004. It recommends a three stage approach to carrying out reviews which is adaptable for use by planning bodies operating at different spatial scales and facing different development pressures. In this context Mole Valley falls within the description of those local planning authority areas which are property markets with high demand for both employment and other uses (ie, housing.)

1.2 The guidance focuses on Classes B1-B8 of the Use Classes Order.

 Business and Office B1 use, including B1 (a) offices; uses:

 Industrial uses: B1 (b) research and development / high tech; and B1 (c) light industrial; and B2 general industrial.

 Warehousing use: B8 warehousing and distribution

1.3 There are other uses that may also be a source of employment such as: retail and financial services, and restaurants (Classes A1 – A5); leisure (Class D2); or institutions. However, these uses are not the focus of the Guidance Note on Employment Land Reviews. However such uses are important employment sectors in Mole Valley, and need to be reflected in the wider economic picture of the District.

Scope and Purpose of the Mole Valley Employment Land Review

1.4 The Council originally published a Local Economy and Employment Land Position Statement in May 2006 with the Core Strategy Preferred Options. This Employment Land Review (ELR) updates the Position Statement and has regard to more recent information, new employment forecasts, and changing national and regional policy. It provides evidence to inform the Core Strategy DPD. It sets out:

i) The policy context for the broad approach of the Core Strategy with regard to employment. ii) The employment and economic context of the District. iii) The current availability and use of employment land and assesses the future requirements for employment land.

1.5 The ELR guidance indicates that the purpose of the assessment is to review existing allocated employment sites in order to identify those sites which should be retained and protected, and those which have the potential for other uses. The Mole Valley Local Plan had only one employment land

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 9 allocation which is now permitted and under construction. Consequently the Employment Land Review focuses on an assessment of outstanding planning permissions and vacant premises. It seeks to ensure there is a portfolio of potential and available sites which will meet local and strategic planning objectives whilst serving the requirements of businesses and developers.

1.6 These strategic planning objectives are set out in the economic vision for the District:-

• Existing high levels of economic prosperity and low levels of unemployment will be sustained and the requirements of businesses will be planned for in terms of a range, mix and quality of employment land and buildings in suitable locations principally in Dorking and Leatherhead. The change and evolution of the District’s economy will be recognised and there is a challenge of creating a better match between the community’s skills and the jobs in the District to jobs to foster a more sustainable community. It is acknowledged that employment opportunities can be provided in many ways – through mixed use development for example – and not just through traditional employment uses. Alongside this approach it will also be necessary to safeguard sites for employment uses. Employment opportunities in the rural areas will be encouraged where they would help sustain local services, facilities and communities, and contribute to the management of the countryside.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 10 2. POLICY BACKGROUND

Key points:

 National planning advice emphasises the need for planning to contribute to sustainable economic development.  The South East Plan requires local planning authorities to adopt a flexible approach and to provide for a range of sites and premises to meet the needs for the local economy.  Draft PPS4 and the proposed changes to the South East Plan emphasise the need to maintain a flexible supply of employment land.

2.1 This section sets out the policy context for the employment issues of the Core Strategy.

National Policy Context

2.2 PPS 1 - .Sustainable Development” (2005).

2.3 This indicates that sustainable development is the core principle underlining planning and that one of the four aims is the maintenance of high and stable levels of economic growth and employment. Planning should promote sustainable inclusive patterns of urban and rural development by contributing to sustainable economic development. In this context, planning authorities in preparing development plans should:-

i) Recognise that economic development can deliver environmental and social benefits;

ii) Recognise the wider benefits of economic development and consider these alongside any adverse local impacts;

iii) Ensure that suitable locations are available for industrial, commercial, retail, public sector (e.g. health and education) tourism and leisure developments, so that the economy can prosper;

iv) Provide for improved productivity, choice and competition, particularly when technological and other requirements of modern business are changing rapidly;

v) Recognise that all local economies are subject to change; planning authorities should be sensitive to these changes and the implications for development and growth;

vi) Ensure the provision of sufficient, good quality, new homes in suitable locations that reduce the need to travel;

vii) Ensure that infrastructure and services are provided to support new and existing economic development and housing;

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 11 viii) Ensure that development plans take account of the regional economic strategies of Regional Development Agencies, regional housing strategies, local authority community strategies and local economic strategies, and,

ix) Identify opportunities for future investment to deliver economic objectives.

However, planning authorities should not impose disproportionate costs in terms of environmental or social impacts, or by unnecessarily constraining otherwise beneficial economic or social development. Authorities should also take account of the range of effects on the environment as well as the positive effect of development in terms of economic benefits and social wellbeing.

2.4 PPG4 - “Industrial and Commercial Development and Small Firms” (November 1992)

2.5 PPG4 encourages economic growth and a high quality environment. It states that development plans provide the policy framework weighing the importance of development with that of maintaining and improving environmental quality including the principles of sustainable development. It recognises that industry and commerce will seek locations in terms of proximity to customers, workforce, materials and supplies, links to other businesses and transport considerations. Consequently development plan policies must take account of these needs and also achieve wider objectives in the public interest. Development plans should:-

- Encourage new development in locations which minimise the length and number of trips, especially by motor vehicles. - Encourage new development in locations which can be served by more energy efficient modes of transport. - Discourage development where it would add unacceptably to congestion. - Have regard that industry and commerce may not be inappropriate in residential areas if they do not adversely affect amenity.

2.6 PPS4 – Planning for Sustainable Economic Development: Consultation

2.7 This draft PPS was published in December 2007 and will supercede PPG4. It reinforces the existing messages in PPG4 but emphasises that the planning system needs to deliver economic development which is sensitive to the challenges of climate change. Its intention is that local planning authorities (LPAs) will support economic development by ensuring they understand and take into account what their economies need to remain competitive and responsive to the needs of business, and factor in the benefits of economic development alongside environmental and social factors.

2.8 To support economic growth in line with PPS1 planning strategies must be underpinned by a robust evidence base. However there is a limit to which LPAs can predict the future of their economies and so a flexible approach to the supply and use of land will be important. In seeking to achieve positive planning for economic development the Government’s objectives are that;

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 12 - a good range of sites are identified for economic development and mixed use development - a good supply of land and buildings which offer a range of opportunities for creating new jobs in large and small businesses as well as start up firms. - adverse impacts on the environment should be avoided, or where unavoidable mitigate them - sustainable travel choices should be promoted.

2.9 The draft PPS4 indicates that economic development covers a wide range of development (ie, beyond Use Classes B1-B8 assessed in employment land reviews).

2.10 There should be a wide evidence base to understand existing business needs and likely changes in the market in order to prepare policies to support sustainable economic development. This should be by;

- assessing the existing supply of land available for economic development through an employment land review, - ensuring strategies take into account local character and the need for a high quality environment, - addressing the particular needs of rural areas,

2.11 LPAs should set out criteria based policies, and where necessary safeguard land from other uses, identify a range of sites, to facilitate a broad range of employment uses and promote mixed use development in appropriate locations. LPAs should ensure that site allocations do not simply carry forward existing allocations. LPAs should take into account changing work patterns and economic data and the need for policies which reflect local circumstances.

2.12 In rural areas LPAs should:

- support farm diversification that helps to sustain agricultural enterprise and are consistent in their scale with their rural location and environmental impact - support sustainable rural tourism - support small scale economic development in villages subject to caveats.

2.13 PPG13 - “Transport” (2001)

2.14 PPG13 comments that by shaping the pattern of development, planning can reduce the need to travel including making it easier for people to access goods and services by public transport, walking or cycling and thereby reduce congestion and pollution and achieve better access. In this regard local authorities should adopt a plan led approach to identifying preferred areas and sites for Class B1 uses which are, as far as possible, highly accessible by public transport.

2.15 PPS3 – Housing (November 2006)

2.16 In January 2005 the Government published a revision to the existing PPG3. This revision, para 42a, indicated that local planning authorities should consider favourably applications for housing or mixed use development on

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 13 land allocated for industrial or commercial use in development plans or redundant land and buildings in such use, but no longer needed for that purpose unless there is evidence in an up to date review of employment land that there is a realistic prospect of the allocation coming forward for its stated use, or that development for housing would undermine strategies for economic development.

2.17 PPS3 (Nov 2006) expresses this by stating that in developing their previously developed land strategies, LPAs should consider whether sites which are currently allocated for industrial or commercial use could be more appropriately re-allocated for housing development.

2.18 The draft PPS4 states that where possible land use reviews, such as housing and employment, should be undertaken at the same time to ensure a full assessment of competing land uses is made. Para 20 of the guidance accompanying PPS3 for carrying out Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments indicates that land allocated (or with permission) for employment uses which are no longer required for those uses, should be considered to have potential for housing.

2.19 PPS12 – Local Spatial Planning (2008)

2.20 PPS12 states that spatial planning is critical to economic growth by providing a flexible supply of land for business and identifying suitable locations; and ensuring business is drawn to the area by providing an attractive environment and sufficient workforce well housed and able to access employment opportunities easily and sustainably.

Regional and Local Planning Context

2.21 The current regional guidance is RPG9 (March 2001).

1) Regional Planning Guidance for the South East (RPG9 – March 2001)

2.22 RPG9 indicates that the South East region is a gateway to continental Europe and is strong in growing sectors (e.g., business services and technology), however the region under performs in European terms. Therefore there is a general approach to support the regional economy. However the RPG acknowledges that the localised impacts of development in the economically buoyant areas should be managed. In this regard access to jobs and services should be less dependent on longer distance movements and business development should be sustainable.

2.23 Development plans should take full account of local economic strategies to reflect local capacity in terms of labour, land availability and transport infrastructure, whilst building in local strengths to reflect changing work and living patterns in order to sustain economic activity. In this regard best use should be made of existing employment land use resources and development plans should:-

i) allocate employment land within an overall strategy for urban renaissance and rural development, providing a range of premises and sites to meet the varied needs of business;

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 14 ii) include policies and proposals which result from a review of existing and potential sites considering various factors including:  current use and scope for intensification;  scope for optimising the use of previously developed land;  scope for mixing employment uses with other land uses such as housing and education;  availability of land within built-up urban areas suitable for development and redevelopment;  potential for increasing access by sustainable transport modes;  marketability; and  the resources required to bring sites forward for development.

2) Regional Spatial Strategy - The Draft South East Plan

2.24 The South East Plan will replace RPG9. The Panel Report into the examination of the South East Plan was published in August 2007 and the Secretary of State’s Proposed Changes were published in July 2008.

2.25 The Panel Report commented that there is little quantification of the future needs of the economy and with little identification of employment land needs either in terms of scale or location, there is little guidance for subsequent LDFs. The Report comments that the absence of information on land requirements is difficult for the Panel to rectify and will have to await more detailed employment land review work by LPAs. However, this absence of quantification of land for employment purposes, or targets, also makes it difficult for LPAs to assess how much land could be needed for, or lost from, employment uses.

2.26 The Report also commented that employment growth estimates (ie, Experian forecasts) on their own cannot give an indication of the type and quality of additional land or floorspace needed, and that it weakened the ability to protect sites for employment generating uses where residential land values are significantly higher.

2.27 The Secretary of State’s Proposed Changes to the South East Plan emphasises that the key challenge is to maintain the region’s significance as one of the most successful regions in the world and to make its full contribution to the UK’s overall competitiveness in a way that respects the principles of sustainable development and improves the quality of life for those who live and work in the region. The Proposed Changes set out the following policies:-

RE1 - Contributing to the UK’s Long Term Competitiveness:- to ensure LDFs provide an enabling context for UK competitiveness and that development plan documents are sufficiently flexible to respond positively to changes.

RE2 - Supporting Nationally and Regionally Important Sectors and Clusters:- LPAs will identify the key sectors and clusters within their local area and the opportunities that exist for their development or expansion.

RE3 - Employment and Land Provision:- LPAs will have regard to strategic and local business needs and the relevant sub regional

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 15 strategy. In planning for the location, quantity and nature of employment land and premises, LPAs will facilitate a flexible supply of land to meet the varying needs of the employment sectors. Policy RE3 also sets out that LPAs will undertake Employment Land Reviews and what provision should be made in development plan documents based on this assessment. The policy also sets out the need to address particular economic needs of rural communities and be supportive of rural economic diversification.

RE4 - Human Resource Development:- Local authorities should work with business sectors and education and training provides to ensure the skills provision meets business requirements.

RE5 - Smart Growth:- The achievement of smart economic growth will be encouraged throughout the region.

RE6 - Competitiveness and Addressing Structural Economic Weakness:- Through joint working seek to maintain and enhance the competitiveness of the most economically successful parts of the region.

3) Mole Valley Local Plan (adopted October 2000)

2.28 The Plan’s strategy for employment land is based on the re-use of existing industrial and commercial land. The Plan indicates there is scope for this process to continue and the redevelopment of land already in commercial and industrial use will be the main resource for maintaining and renewing economic activity in Mole Valley.

2.29 The Local Plan identifies the larger areas of existing suitably located industrial and commercial land within the District’s built-up areas and seeks to safeguard these and other suitably located smaller industrial and commercial sites from development for other uses.

Other Strategies and Economic Initiatives

2.30 In addition to the above national, regional and local policies, the approach of the employment land review and development of Core Strategy policy also needs to have regard to other strategies and initiatives:-

2.31 The Regional Economic Strategy has a vision that by 2016 the South East will be a world class region. It aims to deliver this through Global Competitiveness, and Smart Growth (which seeks to achieve higher prosperity without increasing the ecological footprint of an area by, for example, raising productivity, making the most of skills of residents, and encouraging sustainable business practices). There is also the need to deliver Sustainable Prosperity through preserving the quality of life as a competitive advantage, enhancing the environment, social and lifestyle offer to keep a locality attractive as a place to live, work and do business.

2.32 The Gatwick Diamond is a business led initiative focusing on the action required to make a real difference to the area of East Surrey and central

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 16 Sussex with Gatwick at its heart. The Diamond includes Leatherhead, Dorking and the rural parts of east Mole Valley. It aims to promote the area’s image and quality by upgrading the quality and breadth of workforce skills and encouraging “knowledge” and “technology” in local businesses. To do this there is a need to ensure there are successful entrepreneurs and managers and labour and infrastructure to support it; together with enhanced transport connectivity of the area, locally and internationally.

2.33 The Surrey Economic Partnership Strategy aims to create a world class economy in Surrey and achieve sustainable prosperity through “smart growth” which encourages innovation, creativity and resourcefulness. Its objectives are to:

• Increase the levels of investment in Surrey’s economic infrastructure • Increase the innovation and creative capabilities of Surrey’s businesses • Improve the skills and creativity of Surrey businesses • Develop a sustainable business economy • Tackle the complex barriers to growth of business in Surrey

2.34 The Mole Valley Community Plan’s (2006-2016) key theme is to improve the quality of life in the District and achieve the long term aim of sustainable development. To achieve this the Council is seeking to address social needs, maintain a successful economy, and at the same time safeguard the environment and use natural resources wisely.

Sustainability Appraisal

2.35 The Council’s assessment of potential key employment issues is part of the process of sustainability appraisal, and is integral with the development of the evidence base and policies. Sustainability appraisal has indicated that further commercial development and employment growth could lead to an overheated economy, traffic congestion, housing and labour shortage, skills considerations, and increases in in-commuting.

2.36 The sustainability options likely to have the most positive impacts were those of aiming to balance the number of jobs and resident workers by providing new homes through the development of some employment sites, and by making more intensive use of sites through redevelopment. This is not incompatible with the emerging national policy objectives to maintain a flexible supply of land for employment. The option of developing greenfield sites for employment had many negative impacts.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 17 [ELR guidance - Stage 1:Taking Stock Of The Existing Situation]

3. THE EXISTING SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LAND

Key points:

 CLG1 data suggests there is 496,000m2 of office, factory and warehouse floorspace in the District and indicates an apparent loss of commercial floorspace which is unconfirmed by local knowledge.  The employment floorspace stock is relatively modern.  Sites identified in the Local Plan as suitably located employment land should be retained. Such sites are not employment land allocations.  There is a significant amount of unimplemented floorspace with planning permission and vacant floorspace.

Total Floorspace Stock and Net Change in Floorspace 2000-2007

3.1 In June 2005 the CLG published Commercial and Industrial Floorspace Rateable Value statistics 1998 – 2004. Subsequent revaluation statistics were published as at April 2005 and since then 2007 data has been published. Table 1 below shows the changes in the number of hereditaments and the total employment floorspace in the District.

Table 1. Total Floorspace Stock 2000-2007

Retail Offices Factories Warehouses Total B1-B8

Number Area Number Area Number Area Number Area Number Area m2 m2 m2 m2 m2

April 2000 814 118,000 595 281,000 388 118,000 290 113,000 1,273 512,000

April 2007 746 121,000 819 269,000 414 109,000 288 118,000 1,521 496,000

Actual change -68 +3,000 +224 -12,000 +26 -9,000 -2 +5,000 +248 -16,000 2000-2007

% Change -8.3 +2.5 +37.6 -4.3 +6.7 -7.6 - +4.2 +19.5 -3.1

Leatherhead 160 36,000 348 163,000 49 25,000 53 46,000 450 234,000 April 2007

Dorking 295 48,000 309 76,000 93 35,000 86 28,000 488 139,000 April 2007

Source: CLG Commercial and Industrial Floorspace

3.2 Consideration of this data should take into account:-  The CLG data may ascribe to a specific use, a building which is unrestricted Class B1 and could therefore be occupied by a range of different business activities including light industry.  The figures are rounded to the nearest 1,000m2 and are net internal floorspace.

1 Reference to CLG data may refer to a document published by ODPM (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister).

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 18  The four main commercial and industrial groups do not necessarily accord directly with the Use Classes Order. For example, it is unclear how modern industrial research (Class B1b) premises are classified (ie, whether they are offices or factories). Additionally, offices include non commercial premises (eg, police stations). Car showrooms are counted as warehouses although they are not a B8 use.  The data indicates a net loss of B1-B8 employment floorspace of 16,000m2 between 2000-2007.

3.3 Table 1 indicates that between 2000-2007 there has been a net loss of offices and factory floorspace but a net gain in warehouse floorspace. This is a significant loss of office floorspace and is surprising given that.

• Redevelopment normally results in a net increase in floorspace on a site and a change to a higher order use.

• There were major gains in office/B1 floorspace in Leatherhead with the occupation of The Office Park (12,990m2) by Logica. This was a greenfield site. On the other hand, main employment floorspace loss was the redevelopment of the former SKB Laboratories at Strood Green for housing (demolished in June 2000). This comprised some 13,520m2 of industrial research and ancillary floorspace.

• The re-use of rural buildings (eg agricultural units) for employment uses is a generator of gross and net commercial floorspace.

• There may be discrepancies between how ancillary floorspace is counted.

• The Council’s own data at Table 5 indicates small losses in total floorspace (including losses of warehousing and industrial floorspace, and a slight gain in office floorspace).

• The Council believes the floorspace stock figures in Table 1 should be used with caution.

3.4 The 2007 data is also available at middle layer super output areas (SOA). These have been used to indicate the floorspace figures for Leatherhead and Dorking. However the caveat regarding data accuracy still applies.

3.5 Table 1 shows that there has been a 3% decrease of total commercial floorspace between 2000 and 2007. This incorporates losses in offices and factories but an apparent increase in warehousing floorspace.

3.6 The data for Leatherhead and Dorking shows that Leatherhead has twice as much office floorspace than Dorking but the number of heriditaments is only 12% higher. Dorking apparently has a greater number of factories and floorspace than Leatherhead and more warehouses (albeit less floorspace) than Leatherhead. These latter figures may be subject to caveats regarding clarification between B1-B8 uses.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 19 The Age of the Stock of Employment Floorspace

3.7 The CLG published in March 2005 and tables at local authority level showing the relative age of the employment stock based on the April 2004 floorspace statistics. These are the latest available figures. The following table summarises the Mole Valley information and compares it with regional and national percentage figures.

Table 2. Age of Commercial Floorspace Stock in Mole Valley South England & Mole Valley East Wales Total Stock Pre 1980 1980 - 2000 1980-2000 1980-2000 Floorspace m2 Floorspace m2 % Floorspace m2 % % %

Offices 264,000 118,000 45 146,000 55 43 32

Factory 117,000 87,000 74 30,000 26 23 20

Warehouses 113,000 67,000 59 46,000 41 37 31

Total 494,000 272,000 55 222,000 45 33 26

(Source ODPM provisional 2004 data and not directly comparable with Table 1. It excludes data for completions by class post 2001 and age unknown data).

3.8 The table indicates that some 55% off the office stock was built between 1980-2000. The office stock is signfiicantly more modern than either the regional or national picture and reflects the considerable redevelopment of employment sites for modern business use premises in recent years. Indeed, further completions since then will have increased this proportion further. However some 74% of the factory stock and 59% of the warehouse stock predates 1980 and indicates there may be some potential for further redevelopment. The data indicates only 21% of the factory stock and 13% of the warehousing stock is pre 1940. Overall, at 2000 some 45% of the total stock is less than 30 years old. Recent redevelopment to 2008 will further reduce this percentage.

Existing Employment Sites in Mole Valley.

3.9 The principal employment sites in the District are identified in the Local Plan and subject to the provisions of Policy E2 “Safeguarding Existing Industrial and Commercial Land”. Such sites are not allocations. In addition many smaller industrial and commercial sites may also be regarded as suitably located when assessed in relation to the criteria of the policy. The sites identified in the Local Plan are as follows:-

Leatherhead i) Brook Way / Regent Park area, Kingston Road, Leatherhead. ii) Barnett Wood Lane Industrial Area, Leatherhead. iii) Plough Industrial Estate, Kingston Road, Leatherhead. iv) Mole Business Park, Station Road, Leatherhead. v) Leatherhead Industrial Estate, Station Road, Leatherhead. vi) Leatherhead Research Area, off Cleeve Road and Springfield Drive, Leatherhead.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 20 vii) Leatherhead Research Area, Randalls Way, Leatherhead. viii) Logica, Station Approach. Leatherhead. ix) Ryebrook, Bay Tree Avenue, Kingston Road, Leatherhead. x) Esso, Ermyn Way, Leatherhead. xi) Bookham Industrial Estate.

Dorking xii) Land near Dorking Station, Dorking. xiii) Curtis Road / Station Road and Dorking Business Park, Dorking. xiv) Vincent Lane, Dorking.

3.10 Additionally a site of 2.2ha at the end of Curtis Road, Dorking, was allocated in the Local Plan for future employment needs (Policy E3). This site now has planning permission and is currently under construction.

3.11 The location of the sites is shown on Maps 1 and 2.

Map 1. LEATHERHEAD

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 21 Map 2. DORKING

Suitably located employment Town Centre Business Land (Policy E2-E4) Areas (Policy E7)

3.12 A full assessment of these sites is set out in Annex 6.

Outstanding Planning Permissions for Commercial Uses and Vacant Commercial Premises

3.13 The Council undertakes regular monitoring of planning permissions for commercial developments and carries out surveys to assess the implementation of schemes, current advertised vacancies and the occupation of premises by new tenants. The latest monitoring report is “Outstanding Commercial Permissions and Advertised/Vacant Premises at March 2008”. This and the historic data is summarised in Table 3 below.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 22 Table 3. Permissions and Vacant Premises and Total Available Floorspace.

Sept June March Average June 2000 1995 2005 2008** 2000-2008* a) Offices & Business Use:

- Unimplemented 77,990m2* 33,240m2 18,810m2 42,910m2 30,920 Planning Permissions

- Vacant 19,480m2 4,530m2 28,580m2 19,930m2 19,470

47,390m2 Total 97,470m2 37,770m2 62,120m2 50,390 (510,105ft2) b) Industrial and Storage Use:

- Unimplemented 4,800m2 10,000m2 17,040m2 19,450m2 16,380 Planning Permissions

- Vacant 9,390m2 2,090m2 5,700m2 5,480m2 6,660

2 22,740m 2 Total 14,190m2 12,090m2 24,930m 23,040 (244,775ft2) c) Total available floorspace: 111,660m2 49,855m2 70,130m2 87,050m2 73,430 All B1-B8 Uses.

* includes data for 2001 to 2007 not shown in the Table. ** the full tables for March 2008 are at Annexes 2 and 3.

3.14 Table 3 shows the changing levels of outstanding permissions and vacant floorspace from 1995 to 2008. The information is represented graphically in Figure A below.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 23 A Commentary on the Levels of Outstanding Permissions and Vacant Floorspace

(Figure - A to be updated to include March 2008 data)

3.15 Figure A sets out the figures in Table 3. It shows: i) The impacts of significant individual proposals for headquarters premises in September 1995 and March 2008 which significantly increased permissions over previous rates. ii) Increasing floorspace availability. iii) The increasing proportion of floorspace available which is vacant floorspace rather than from new premises. iv) The generally lower levels of floorspace with planning permissions and vacant floorspace for industrial and warehousing uses compared with that for office and business use.

3.16 Over the 8-year period of June 2000 to June 2008 there has been an average total of 73,430m2 of outstanding permissions and vacant premises for offices and industrial uses. This comprises an average of 50,930m2 of offices and B1, and 23,040m2 of industrial and warehousing figures.

3.17 Most new business use floorspace is provided through the redevelopment of existing sites and consequently the net increase over existing floorspace is relatively low. Vacant premises do not account for a net gain in floorspace. Consequently, although the total amount of available floorspace may be high it does not imply significant increases in floorspace stock. Indeed only one

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 24 major scheme has been completed over the last 10 years that was not redevelopment, this being the new Office Park on the Leatherhead Research area occupied by Logica (comprising 12,992m2). The only other instances of new floorspace are the conversion of redundant agricultural buildings to commercial floorspace.

Vacant Floorspace Rates

3.18 Vacancy rates have been compiled by using the data in Tables 3 and the CLG’s Commercial and Industrial Property Floorspace Statistics (Table 1). They are set out in Table 4 below.

Table 4. Vacant Floorspace Rates (m2)

2000 2004 2007/2008

Offices Factories Total Offices Factories Total Offices Factories Total and and and Warehouses Warehouses Warehouses

CLG Employment 281,000 231,000 512,000 274,000 233,000 507,000 269,000* 227,000* 496,000* Floorspace (2007)

Vacant Floorspace 4,530 2,090 6,620 20,810 3,080 23,890 19,930 5,480 25,410 (March 2008) (Table 3)

* % Vacant 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% 7.6% 1.3% 4.7% 7.4% 2.4% 5.1%

0.7% 0.7% 0.6% Unemployment (March (March (June Rate 2000) 2004) 2008)

3.19 Table 4 indicates the amount of floorspace which is vacant and available to let as a proportion of total floorspace. Office floorspace has increased from 1.6% to 7.4% in 2008. The figures indicate that vacancy levels have increased overall during the period 2000–2008 from 1.3% to 5.1%. This increase in vacant floorspace has occurred without significant employment losses and with unemployment rates remaining at very low levels.

3.20 Vacant factories and warehouses have increased from 0.9% to 2.4% of stock; albeit the figures themselves are very low. They indicate a tight industrial floorspace supply.

3.21 Analysis of the Vacant Premises, at end of March 2008, data indicates that some 20,565m2 (or 81%) of vacant floorspace was in modern (post 1980) B1- B8 premises. Much of this was on sites identified as suitably located employment land or town centre premises. This indicates that although there may be significant amounts of vacant floorspace most of this is good quality floorspace stock and not appropriate for allocation to other uses. Whilst some of the vacant stock is modern some of this is in units built in the early-mid 1980s and which may require refurbishment to bring them up to current business standards. Other vacant premises are small town centre office premises or suites. Such premises normally ‘turn over’ on a regular basis with other premises becoming available once current properties are re-let.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 25 Take Up of Floorspace

i) Take Up of New Developments

3.22 Table 5 shows the completion and take up of new developments between 2000-2007 to allow comparison with the CLG floorspace data.

Net Change in Employment Floorspace 2000-2007

Table 5. Take up of Permissions and Net Changes in Floorspace (m2)

LEATHERHEAD DORKING

Offices/B1 B1c-B2 B8 Offices/B1 B1c-B2 B8

All Completions Gross 29,000 4,100 2,400 600 - - 2000-2007

Losses as a result of implementing permissions for -7,700 -3,800 -600 - - - commercial redevelopment

Net completed 21,300 300 1,800 600 - - floorspace

Less Losses to Other -9,100 -2,400 -5,600 -14,100 -1,700 -1,300 Uses

Net Change in Floorspace July 2000 – 12,200 -2,100 -3,800 -13,500 -1,700 -1,300 June 2007.

TOTAL RURAL TOTAL ALL USES

All Completions Gross 2,200 2,900 4,000 31,800 7,000 6,400 45,200 2000-2007

Losses as a result of implementing permissions for - - -200 -7,700 -3,800 -800 -12,300 commercial redevelopment

Net completed 2,200 2,900 3,800 24,100 3,200 5,600 32,900 floorspace

Less Losses to Other -300 -800 -500 -23,500 -4,900 -7,400 -35,800 Uses

Net Change in Floorspace June 2000 1,900 2,100 3,300 600 -1,700 -1,800 -2,900 – March 2007.

3.23 Table 5 shows that;

• Most new floorspace has been in the Leatherhead area and is within the office/unfettered Class B1 uses. Most of this was on the new Office Park which has been occupied by Logica.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 26 • The total net loss of employment floorspace, District-wide, at less than 3,000m2 is considerably less than the 16,000m2 loss identified in Table 1. There is therefore concern at the accuracy of the CLG data.

• The main employment floorspace loss was the redevelopment for housing of the former SKB research premises at Strood Green. This has been counted as a Dorking area loss (to reflect the old Local Plan areas used for monitoring) but may more appropriately be considered a rural location.

3.24 Table 6 shows completed new developments and changes of use between July 2000 and March 2008.

Table 6. Completed New Developments and Changes of Use : July 2000 – March 2008 and Annual Average m2

LEATHERHEAD DORKING

Offices B1c-B2 B8 Offices B1c-B2 B8

All Completions Gross 33,380* 4,077 3,191 1,204 - - (7.75 years)

All Completions Gross (Annual Average 4,310 530 410 160 - - Rounded)

RURAL TOTAL

All Completions Gross 2,179 3,466 4,471 36,763 7,543 7,662 (7.75 years)

All Completions Gross (Annual Average 280 450 580 4,740 970 990 Rounded)

* The figures exclude 5,600m2 of former warehousing which has been converted to a business disaster recovery centre. This is technically an office/business use, however the normal employment levels on this site are very low.

ii) T ake Up of Advertised Vacant Premises

3.25 The availability of a range of good quality new and vacant floorspace is important in order to allow new firms to come into the district and for existing firms to expand.

3.26 As part of the monitoring of the implementation of permissions the Council surveys the town centres, business parks and other main urban employment areas. Surveys of vacant/advertised premises are part of this work. Additional vacancy information can be gleaned from agents web sites. Take up can be assessed on subsequent surveys by noting the occupation of previously vacant premises or the removal of the letting board/web information (although the latter is used with caution). This take up data also excludes new premises being occupied for the first time – such information being part of the completions of permissions. Rural sites are not usually surveyed as part of this commercial monitoring. This monitoring of take up gives a more complete picture of the use of the stock of employment land and buildings. This is especially relevant in a district where new employment

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 27 generating development comes forward principally through the redevelopment of existing sites and provides for relatively low levels of net floorspace increases.

3.27 Vacant premises data is based on net internal lettable area whereas planning permissions are based on the gross floorspace of the building.

Table 7. Take Up of Vacant Premises and other Changes of Occupier : Oct 2001 – March 2008.

LEATHERHEAD DORKING

Offices Industry Storage Offices Industry Storage (B1U, B1a) (B1c-B2) (B8) (B1U, B1a) (B1c-B2) (B8)

Oct 2001 – March 2008 390,497 67,791 61,001 87,512 56,885 2,500 (6.5 yrs) Total ft2

Convert to m2 36,280 6,300 5,670 8,130 5,280 230

* Annual Average 5,580 970 870 1,250 810 35 m2

TOTAL (ft2)

Offices Industry Storage (B1U, B1a) (B1c-B2) (B8)

Oct 2001 – June 2008 478,009 124,676 63,501 (6.5 yrs) Total ft2

Convert to m2 44,410 11,580 5,900

* Annual Average 6,830 1,780 910 m2

* (Based on 4.25 years to have regard to data gap)

3.28 The detailed annual data in Table 7 is included at Annex 1

3.29 A comparison of Table 3 – Permissions and Vacant Premises, and Table 7 – Take Up of Vacant Floorspace indicates the following:-

1) The Leatherhead area is the main focus for office and business use premises available to let and with high levels of take up. 2) The amount of industrial floorspace taken up is comparatively low; reflecting low vacant floorspace. 3) Dorking and Leatherhead experience similar rates of take up of vacant industrial space.

3.30 The total floorspace take up of vacant premises and the occupation of completed developments is therefore:-

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 28 Table 8. Total Annual Floorspace Take Up - m2

LEATHERHEAD DORKING 2 Floorspace m B1U, B1a B1c-B2 B8 B1U, B1a B1c-B2 B8 Offices Industrial Storage Offices Industrial Storage

Annual Average 4,130 530 410 160 - - Completions

Annual Average 5,580 970 870 1,250 810 35 Take Up of Vacant Premises

Total Annual Average Take Up 9,710 1,500 1,280 1,410 810 35 of Floorspace (m2)

RURAL TOTAL

Annual Average 280 450 580 4,740 970 990 Completions

Annual Average N/K N/K N/K 6,830 1,780 910 Take Up of Vacant Premises

Total Annual Average Take Up of 280 450 580 11,570 2,750 1,900 Floorspace (m2)

The Use of Net and Gross Floorspace Data

3.31 Net floorspace change shows how much floorspace has been added to, or lost, from the total stock. The Council’s data (Table 5) indicates there have been relatively small changes in the total stock with losses in industrial and warehousing, and a small increase in the office/business stock. In comparison the CLG data (Table 1) shows more major changes including significant losses to office/business stock and factory/industrial stock, and also gains in warehousing. Overall, the CLG data shows a net loss of total stock between 2000-2007 of 16,000m2. However, the Council’s data has a net loss of stock of only 3,000m2 (Table 5). This would seem to indicate, despite reduction in floorspace, additional jobs can be provided in the district. In addition it is the gross available floorspace (in outstanding permissions and advertised vacant premises), and not the net changes to floorspace stock, which the guidance indicates should be used as the basis for the calculation of the additional jobs which may be generated.

[ELR guidance – STAGE 3 – Identifying a Portfolio of Sites]

A Review of Sites with Planning Permissions and Vacant Premises

3.32 Stage 3 of the Employment Land Review guidance is to undertake a review of the existing portfolio of employment sites available to meet local and strategic planning objectives whilst serving the needs of businesses. This is set out in the guidance as a review of allocated sites to meet forecast needs. However with the exception of one site2 the Council does not have any employment land allocations. Indeed as this site is now under construction it is no longer

2 Land at the end of Curtis Road, Dorking.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 29 an allocation Instead, new employment land and buildings come forward as a result of the granting of planning permissions for the redevelopment of existing sites and through vacant premises. It is on the basis of these commitments that the Council has to assess whether there is sufficient employment floorspace available, or in the pipeline.

3.33 The ELR guidance indicates that assessments should be made as to whether there is sufficient land allocated or whether land can be released for other uses. However, as well as establishing how much land is required to meet employment needs, it needs to be considered whether the employment land (ie, sites with planning permissions and vacant sites) is genuinely deliverable. Assessments could otherwise be made for employment land needs to meet forecast jobs against an unrealistic expectation as to the development opportunities available to absorb additional jobs.

3.34 Consequently it is appropriate to undertake a Stage 3 assessment of current planning permissions and vacant sites prior to consideration of the employment forecasts.

3.35 An assessment has been carried out to establish if all of the sites with planning permission or which are vacant, are genuinely deliverable or available. Annex 4 comprises this assessment and lists all outstanding planning permissions and vacant premises in Classes B1- B8 at March 2008.

3.36 With the exception of one major headquarters permission of 7950m2, where it is not known if the building will be constructed, and two small sites with alternative permissions for residential use, it is considered that the outstanding permissions and vacant premises are deliverable. Not all of the outstanding permissions are immediately available. Advertised vacant premises are considered to be available.

3.37 The major headquarters permission is part of a site on which two buildings have been developed. Consequently permission for the third building will not lapse and it may be constructed at any time. Whether it will be constructed in the future for the current occupiers own use is not known. However it would be unrealistic to exclude it from the outstanding permissions statistics as it is land within an existing research area business park which has potential for development over the longer term. On this basis the assessment of sites at Annex 4 comprises the portfolio of sites which are available to meet forecast employment needs.

3.38 Whilst the Local Plan only has one employment land allocation it does identify in Policy E2 existing suitably located employment sites (see para 3.10) which have also been assessed. These sites contain many of the outstanding permissions and vacant premises. This broad assessment, contained in Annex 6 considers the size and location of each site and an indication of the uses and quality of the premises.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 30 4. THE LOCAL LABOUR FORCE AND FIRMS

Key points:

 There is a net in-commuting of workers into the District  Unemployment rates are amongst the lowest nationally.  The workforce is highly skilled and a significant proportion are in the higher occupational classes.  The main employment sector is in financial and business activities.  Most firms are small in size but there are headquarters of several multi- national/national companies in the district.

Labour Supply

4.1 The labour market information is taken from the NOMIS* Labour Market Profiles. The most recent, at the time of drafting this document, was July 2008.

4.2 Resident Population - Working Age. (16-59 female / 64 male) (Source ONS mid-year 2006 population estimates).

 Some 46,700 (58.0%) of the district’s population is of working age. This is lower than the South East figure of 61.5% and the Great Britain figure of 62.2%. It indicates that relative to other areas the district has an older age profile and that the ability of local residents to fill any increases in jobs may be more limited than for other areas.

4.3 Labour Supply – Economically Active. (ONS annual population survey, Jan 2007 – Dec 2007)

 Overall some 40,100 residents are economically active (of which 39,800 are in employment), being some 78.8% of the working age population. This is matches the GB activity but is slightly lower than the South East rates. This indicates that whilst the working age population is proportionally lower than elsewhere the activity of residents is just as high. This is borne out by low unemployment rates. This is evidence of a tight labour supply indicating that it may be difficult to fill increases in jobs from local residents.  Of the 40,100 economically active, some 31,000 were employees and 8,800 were self-employed; some 15.8%. This is significantly higher than the South East and GB levels of self-employed. Indeed this is significantly higher than the 6,000 self-employed reported in the original Employment Land Position Statement (ELPS).

4.4 Labour Supply – Economically Inactive. (ONS annual population survey, Jan 2007 – Dec 2007)

 Some 9,800 persons of working age population were economically inactive. The male economically inactive some sample was too small to be published. Of the 6,100 females economically inactive, some 1,300 (21%) wanted a job. Earlier data for April 2005 – March 2006 indicated that there were some 2,900 males economically inactive, of which 2,400

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 31 did not want a job. This infers some 500 may have wanted a job. This together with the 1,300 females wanting a job indicates a potential 1,800 persons who could be absorbed back into the labour market. Whilst this is 400 lower than previously stated in the ELPS, it is still significantly higher than those officially registered as unemployed (Jobseekers Allowance claimants – see para 4.6). Such persons would be seeking employment across all sectors, not just the jobs available within Use Class B1-B8. Consequently this figure cannot be relied on as the potential job seekers who could be accommodated within the parameters of the Employment Land Review methodologies.

4.5 Commuting Patterns

Table 9. Employment and Commuting Trends in Mole Valley (2001 Census)

a) Population living and working in Mole Valley. = 20,360

b) Live in Mole Valley but work outside the = 18,804 (ie, out commuting) District.

c) Live outside Mole Valley but work in the = 19,636 (ie, in commuting) District.

d) Net in commuting. = +832 (c – b)

e) Total employed in Mole Valley. = 39,996 (a + c)

 Table 9 shows that at the 2001 Census total employment was 39,996 persons and that the District is a minor net importer (some 832 employees) of labour. In comparison, in 1991 there were some 33,440 persons working in the District indicating an increase of 6,500 jobs over 10 years - or 650 jobs per annum. However, in 1991 the District was then a net out-commuter of some 4,900 persons. In 2001 some 48% of the resident working population commuted out.

 Of the Mole Valley residents commuting out of the District to work, the top 7 destinations are ranked as follows (2001 Census): - Central London (Westminster, City, etc) - Reigate and Banstead - Epsom and Ewell - Guildford - Elmbridge - Kingston upon Thames - Crawley

 Of those commuting into the District the top 7 ranked places of origin were: - Reigate and Banstead - Epsom & Ewell - Horsham - Guildford - London Borough of Sutton - Crawley - Elmbridge

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 32 [For further analysis of movements see the Mole Valley Transport Assessment evidence base document and the background Facts, Figures and Contextual Information (page 29) document.]

4.6 Unemployment Rates (Jobseeker Allowance claimants)

 The District’s unemployment rate at July 2008 was 0.6% with some 286 claimants. This rate has remained consistently low since March 2001 and is indicative of the economic buoyancy of the District. The District has the lowest unemployment rate in Surrey and indeed is one of the lowest rates nationally.

Figure C

4.7 Vacancies (NOMIS)

 As at March 2006 there were some 248 notified vacancies in Mole Valley. At March 2008 this was some 282 vacancies, and by July 2008 some 363 vacancies (ie, at July 2008 total vacancies exceeded job seekers claimants – ie, those seeking work).

4.8 Job Density – Labour Demand (NOMIS)

 Job densities are the number of jobs in the District per resident of working age (16-59/64). A job density of 1.0 would mean there is technically one job per resident of working age. The number of jobs is a workplace based measure and the working age residents is from the mid- year population estimates. The latest published NOMIS figure, for Mole Valley at 2005, is 0.99 which indicates that the number of jobs in the District (46,000) almost matches the working age resident population.

4.9 Socio Economic Classification of Residents (2001 Census)

 The Council’s key statistics profile indicates that Mole Valley residents aged 16-74 were in the following occupations.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 33 Table 10. Occupations of Residents Leatherhead Mole Valley England North Managerial and professional 38.3% 27.3% 33.0%

Intermediate occupations 10.1% 9.5% 11.0%

Small employees and own account 9.9% 7.0% 8.1% workers

Lower supervisory and technical 5.0% 7.1% 7.9%

Semi routine and routine occupations 12.6% 11.7% 20.4%

Never worked & long term unemployed 1.5% 3.7% 2.8%

Full time student 4.8% 7.0% 3.7%

Not classifiable for other reasons (eg, 17.9% 17.7% 13.0% retired)

 Leatherhead North (ward) figures have been used for comparison as the area is the main employment area in the District. However it is a relatively poor scoring ward in terms of Indices of Multiple Deprivation Indicators. The table shows that Leatherhead North has fewer managerial and professional residents than the District average, and that residents in semi routine / routine occupations are considerably higher than the Mole Valley and national averages. However many of the jobs in North Leatherhead are on the research and business parks employing many managerial and professional workers.

4.10 Qualifications (Census)

 The district’s workforce is well qualified (people aged 16-74)

Table 11. Qualifications of Residents Leatherhead Mole Valley England North First Degree or Higher 28.2% 19.9% 21.4%

No Qualifications 19.0% 28.9% 26.3%

4.11 Estimates of the number of jobs in the District

• The main source of data for jobs in the District is the Government’s Annual Business Inquiry (ABI). However this data is not checked for accuracy. Surrey County Council and the Districts have identified, in the past, significant errors in the data which over-estimates the number of jobs in the area. For example, several firms based at Gatwick Airport are counted as being based in Mole Valley and several firms with small offices in the District count all of their employees as being based at such addresses.

• With regard to the 2004 ABI, the Council considered that the data over- estimated the total number of jobs by some 3,000. The following table

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 34 gives the total number of jobs (including self employed) in the District for 2001-2005 from the ABI and indicates concerns over data accuracy (especially for 2000-2003).

Table 12. ABI Estimates of Total Jobs In Mole Valley Year Total No. of Jobs 2000 56,000 2001 55,000 2002 54,000 2003 51,000 2004 46,000 2005 46,000

• The 2001 Census Workplace statistics for Mole Valley is understood to be a reasonably reliable figure. This indicates there were some 40,000 jobs compared with the ABI’s 55,000 jobs. The Experian forecast, base figure for 2002, in Table 20 of the ELPS was 44,300 compared to the ABI estimate of 54,000 jobs.

• Comparison of jobs figures is made especially difficult where it is unclear whether published data refers to total jobs or employee jobs (ie excluding self employed).

• The data for 2000-2004 is from the ABI. The 2005 figure is from the ONS jobs density data (Source: NOMIS).

• Whilst the ABI data may be reasonably accurate when used for regional and sub-regional planning, such inaccuracies can significantly affect data at the more local (ie local planning authority) level. This inaccurate data may be used for a variety of purposes, including employment growth forecasts.

• Regard should be had to these concerns when interpreting the following tables.

• The Panel Report into the South East Plan (para 6.77) states that Experian standard forecasts could be used as a guide (emphasis added) to inform LDF work. However the Panel fully accepted the uncertainties of projecting at the local level. These forecasts have been used by the Council to forecast jobs and floorspace requirements (see Section 5).

 The ABI data indicates that the number of employee jobs (ie, excluding self employed, Government supported trainees and HM forces) in the District is some 44,300 in 2006 compared with 39,000 in 2003. Some 69.4% are full time and 30.6% are part time. These percentages are very similar to the South East averages. Most jobs in the District are in the service sector especially finance, IT and other business activities where the percentages employed in this sector are significantly above

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 35 the South East and national figures. This indicates the emphasis on firms and employees in the District being in higher order sectors.

Table 13. Employee jobs full time / part time and by Employment Sectors 2006. 2006 2003 Mole Valley Mole Valley South East Great Britain (employee jobs) % % %

Jobs 39,000 44,300

Full Time 25,800 30,800 69.4 69.3 68.9

Part Time 13,200 13,600 30.6 30.7 31.1

Manufacturing 2,300 2,400 5.5 8.8 10.9

Construction 1,800 2,500 5.7 4.5 4.8

Services 34,300 38,700 87.4 85.2 82.9

(Of which Finance, IT, 13,900 15,300 34.5 24.1 21.2 Business)

(Source: NOMIS 2006 ABI employee analysis.) (Component may not sum as not all employment sectors are listed)

 The table also indicates that manufacturing sector jobs in the district are only half that of the national average.

 This is further confirmed by the following table from the Mole Valley key facts table on the GOSE web site

Table 14. Main Employment by Sector 2006 (Employee Jobs) District SE England No. % % % Manufacturing 2,400 5.5 8.8 10.9 Construction 2,500 5.7 4.5 4.8 Finance, IT and other 15,300 34.5 24.1 21.2 business Services Distribution, hotels 11,100 25.0 24.6 23.5 and restaurants Transport and 1,300 3.0 6.0 5.9 communications Public Admin, 8,900 20.1 25.4 26.9 Education & Health Other services 2,100 4.7 5.2 5.3 Total Employee Jobs 44,300

Source: NOMIS 2006 ABI employee analysis. (Component may not sum as not all employment sectors are listed)

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 36 4.12 Firms in Mole Valley

Table 15. Total Number of Firms 1998 4526 2000 4922 2002 4897 2003 4845 2004 4856 2005 5007

i) Number and percentage of firms by sector in Mole Valley (ONS ABI)

(NB Table 16 has not yet been updated to 2006 - data needed from NOMIS)

Table 16. Firms by Sector 1998 2000 2002 2006

No. % No. % No. % No. %

Agriculture and fishing/ quarrying (1,2 33 0.7 33 0.7 34 0.7 and 3)

Manufacturing (4) 310 6.8 311 6.3 297 6.1

Energy and water (5) 3 - 6 - 6

Construction (6) 398 8.8 433 8.8 447 9.1

Wholesale / retail, hotels and 1,169 25.8 1,186 24.1 1,164 23.8 restaurants; distribution (7, 8)

Transport and 147 3.2 167 3.4 177 3.6 communication (9)

Financial and business / insurance 1,707 37.7 1,972 40.1 1,957 40.0 activities (10 and 11)

Public admin, health & 286 6.3 324 6.6 308 6.3 education (12, 13, 14)

Other services and 473 10.4 490 10.0 507 10.3 other jobs (15, 16, 17)

Total 4,526 4,922 4,897

ii) Percentage of Firms by Employees – Size of Firms (ABI 2002)

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 37 (NB Table 17 has not yet been updated to 2006 - data needed from NOMIS) Table 17. Size of Firms - Employees

2002

Mole Valley Surrey 2006 % No. of Firms %

1 - 10 Employees 4,305 87.9 87.6

11 - 49 459 9.4 9.6

50 - 199 106 2.2 2.2

200 or more 27 0.5 0.5

Under 25 4,622 94.4 94.2

25 or more 275 5.6 5.8

 In 2002 the size structure of firms in Mole Valley was very similar to the overall County structure. The table indicates the extent to which small firms are the largest sector. Some 94.4% of firms in Mole Valley employ fewer than 25 persons and these small firms have 36% of the employees in the district. This needs to be taken into account in considering the need to make provision for premises suitable for small firms.

 Limited information for 2005 indicates some 28% of employees worked in small firms of 10 or less employees. Some 25% of employees worked in large firms of more than 200 workers.

4.13 Major Employment Locations (2001 Census)

 The main employment locations can be identified by the total workplace population by ward. The top 7 ranked wards for employment in Mole Valley are:

Table 18. Main Employment Areas - Jobs by Ward No. of % of Jobs in the Ward Jobs District

Leatherhead North 9,757 24.4

Dorking North 4,819 12.0

Dorking South 4,378 10.9

Ashtead Park 2,714 6.8

Leatherhead South 2,446 6.1

Charlwood 1,931 4.8

Mickleham, Westhumble & Pixham 1,571 3.9

District Total 39,996

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 38  Leatherhead North ward has almost one quarter of all of the jobs in the District. The area contains many of the main business parks and includes part of Leatherhead town centre. The area is readily accessible by road and rail services. It is one of the largest employment centres (wards) in the County. Paradoxically, however, the ward scores relatively poorly with regard to Indices of Multiple Deprivation. For example, the 2001 Census indicates that 2.8% of the population were persons categorised as never worked and the long term unemployed, compared to 1.5% for the District. Some 26.3% of the ward population had no qualification compared to 19% for the District. There would seem to be a relatively poor match between the jobs in the ward and the skills of the local population.

 The district has two main town centres; Leatherhead and Dorking. The CLG have published floorspace and jobs data for 2002 which is shown below. The information should not be used to infer the overall number of jobs in the towns as many major employers are located on the periphery of the towns (eg, major office employers and business parks).

Table 19. Town Centre Activity 2002 Dorking Leatherhead Employment/ Employment/ Floorspace m2 Floorspace m2 Persons Persons Retail (incl services 1,610 43,890 980 20,670 and restaurants) Offices 1,300 22,420 1,130 22,520 Total 2,910 66,310 2,110 43,190

Source: www.iggi.gov.uk/towncent

 Some of the data has been updated to 2004 and is available on the CLG’s State of the Cities database. However not all of the data is available to enable comparisons to be shown. Moreover, some of the data is anomalous. For example, office floorspace in Leatherhead Town Centre is indicated to have increased by 4,300m2 but the number of jobs decreased. However the Council is unaware of new office development in the centre which would explain this.

4.14 Worker Floorspace Ratios

 Worker floorspace ratios are an estimate of the amount of floorspace used by an employee. Such ratios can be used to calculate, the number of jobs that could be generated by the occupation of vacant floorspace or newly completed development schemes. Alternatively, the ratios can be used to assess the amount of floorspace required for a given amount of employment growth (ie, to accommodate the increased number of employees). The CLG’s Good Practice Guide gives indicative worker floorspace ratios based on work by Roger Tym, Arup and DTZ Pieda3

3 DTZ Pieda – for SEERA. Use of Business Space and Changing Working Practices in the South East (May 2004).

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 39 (1997-2004). The following table aggregates this information and compares it with Surrey County Council worker floorspace ratios derived from New Occupier Surveys (1995-1999).

Table 20. Worker Floorspace Ratios Floorspace per worker m2 CLG Surrey County Council Aggregate Figures 1995-1999 1997-2004

Offices 18.3 16.4 ] 22.75 ] 41.7 High Tech / R&D 27.2 67.0

Industrial 38.2 37.5 ] 34.0 ] 35.3 Manufacturing 29.7 33.1

Warehousing - General 40.1 46.2

Overall Average 30.7 40.0

Industrial/Manufacturing/ 36.0 39.0 Warehousing Average

 For the purposes of this review the CLG worker floorspace ratios are used.

 Earlier research by Surrey County Council indicates that worker floorspace ratios for offices and high technology uses appear to be considerably lower (at 1:41.7m2 per worker) than the CLG ratios. In order to estimate floorspace data by use the average worker floorspace ratios for Offices / High Tech / R&D (22.75m2) and Industrial / Manufacturing (34m2) are used.

 knowledge based commercial activities can demonstrate high levels of productivity and investment per square metre but may have relatively low worker floorspace ratios. On this basis the overall office / R & D worker floorspace ratio of 22.75m2 per worker used may be considered ‘tight’. This should be borne in mind in any considerations of jobs forecast and available floorspace. Indeed the overall average worker floorspace ratio in Surrey at 1:40, compared with the CLG figure of 1:30.7, is some 25% lower.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 40 [ELR guidance - Stage 2 - Creating A Picture Of Future Requirements]

5. ESTIMATING FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS

Introduction

5.1 Assessments of the likely future requirement for employment land have been carried out using different methodologies to establish a range of possible outcomes.

Method 1. Forecast Growth based on Past Trends of Net Increases In Floorspace

5.2 This assessment methodology uses net changes in floorspace between 2000- 2007 to derive future net floorspace growth.

Table 21a. Net Future Floorspace Industry / Warehousing / Offices / B1 B1c-B2 B8 m2 m2 m2

Net change in floorspace July 2000 – 600 -1,700 -1,800 March 2007 (6.75 years) – see Table 5

Annual average total floorspace: 90 -250 -260 a) 2008-2016 (8 years) 720 -2,000 -2,080 b) 2008-2021 (13 years) 1,170 -3,250 -3,380

5.3 These net changes in floorspace can then be converted into additional jobs created by use of worker floorspace ratios.

Table 21b. Employment Growth – to 2016 Industry / Warehousing Offices / B1 Total B1c – B2 / B8

2008 - 2016 720 -2,000 -2,080

 Worker / floorspace ratio 22.75 34.0 40.1 (Av. ratio 30.7)

= Total jobs generated 32 -59 -52 -79

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 41 Table 21c. Employment Growth - to 2021 Industry / Warehousing Offices / B1 Total B1c – B2 / B8

2008 – 2021 1,170 -3,250 -3,380

 Worker / floorspace ratio 22.75 34.0 40.1

= Total jobs generated 51 -95 -84 -128

5.4 The Employment Land Position Statement (ELPS) used the same methodology for 2000-2005 base figures which had overall net gains in floorspace. It indicated the increase in jobs, derived from trend based net increases in floorspace to 2016, would be some 570, and to 2021 some 829 additional jobs. However the current estimate is based on negligible net floorspace change, or losses of floorspace in some uses. This results in net employment losses. This is a very unlikely scenario given that the South East Plan is planning for growth. However this clearly indicates the difficulty of forecasting based on net trend data.

Method 2. Demand Led Forecast Growth in Employment – Experian Forecasts4

i) Forecast Changes in Employment

5.5 The Regional Assembly (SEERA) commissioned Experian Business Strategies to produce employment forecasts for the South East to help the development of the South East Plan. This included forecasts at the district level. The Panel Report has indicated such forecasts can be used as a guide (para 6.77 of the report). SEERA have provided an ELR Interim Note (July 2008) to assist local authorities undertaking such reviews. The note reiterates that the Panel acknowledged there are uncertainties involved in projecting to the local level. SEERA therefore recommend using the Experian forecast as a ‘starting point’ only and for local knowledge, context, and issues to be taken into account and applied.

5.6 Since the publication of the ELPS two further sets of Experian forecasts have been made available by SEEDA. Additionally, Surrey County Council commisioned a set of Experian forecasts. These forecasts are shown below, for comparison. Simplistically, the forecasts are derived from the ABI data available at the base date and compared with historic data having regard to other factors. This past trend information is then extrapolated forward.

4 Surrey County Council and other districts have expressed concern at the methodology and baseline of the Experian forecasts which are felt to over-estimate the potential increase in jobs. They are based on data which is known to be an over-estimate of the number of jobs in the District. This is due to the mis-coding of jobs at Gatwick Airport to Mole Valley and major paypoint data errors

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 42 Table 22. Experian Employment Forecasts – Mole Valley figures Total Employment 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Change (incl self 2006-2016 employed)

Experian 2003 forecast 46,400 52,200 +5,800 for South East Plan

Experian Sept 2006 47,100 48,500 49,900 51,100 52,400 +2,800 forecast for Surrey CC

Experian Dec 2006 forecast for SEEDA - EiP 47,100 50,600 51,300 +2,500 Panel

Experian Spring 2008 52,700 54,700 56,000 57,700 57,700 +3,300 forecast for SEEDA

These figures are for total employment in all industrial sectors.

5.7 The draft South East Plan and the Council’s earlier Employment Land Position Statement made use of the Experian 2003 based forecasts.

5.8 The SEERA 2003 and County 2006 forecast figures, at 2006, are reasonably in line with the ONS 2005 estimate of 46,000 total jobs (source NOMIS Jobs Density Table). However, the Spring 2008 forecast base figure of 52,700 is some 6,300 jobs higher than the ONS figures and the earlier forecasts. SEEDA have suggested to local planning authorities that the latest Experian forecast (ie Spring 2008) be used in preparing evidence bases. However the base line figure for this latest forecast is so at variance with previous forecasts that it must be considered flawed.

5.9 The guidance on employment land reviews indicates that only land uses in Class B1-B8 (offices, industry and warehousing) need to be considered when assessing employment land needs. To do this employment changes by industrial sector need to be converted to floorspace requirements by land use class. The Experian forecast of September 2006 for Surrey County Council includes this more detailed forecast employment by industrial sector information and has therefore been used for this study.

5.10 There is a need to assess to what extent these additional 2,800 forecast jobs can be accommodated by: i) forecast changes in the working age population and increasing activity rates ii) floorspace requirements of those forecast jobs which fall within Use Classes B1-B8.

5.11 Surrey County Council has produced population forecasts for Mole Valley. These were based on the ONS 2004 population projections and having regard to the housing requirement in the draft South East Plan of 171 dwellings per annum (This is a dwelling constrained forecast. The housing requirement has since increased to 188 dwpa). Since then ONS have produced 2006 based sub national projections. Both forecasts are shown in Table 23 below. Working age population is currently 15-59 years female, 64 years male. However the population information available cannot be

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 43 disaggregated by sex. Consequently the total population for 15-64 years is used.

Table 23. Population Projections. Total Population and Working Age Change 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006-2016

A) Mole Valley 2004 : Dwelling Constrained

Total Population 80,100 81,050 82,910 83,390 83,760 84,370

15-64 yrs (M/F) 50,600 51,120 51,610 50,780 50,240 49,230 -340

B) 2006 Based sub national population projections

Total Population - 80,500 81,800 83,600 85,900 88,500

15-64 yrs (M/F) - 50,600 50,200 49,600 50,000 50,000 -1,000

5.12 Both sets of forecasts indicate a decreasing working age population between 2006-2026 and there would appear to be only limited opportunity to increase activity rates in the population (see para 4.4).

5.13 However the Experian forecasts have indicated an increase in jobs between 2006-2016 and to 2026 (Table 22) which will be met, in the main, by persons residing outside of the District. This would result in additional in-commuting and pressure on infrastructure.

ii) Allocating Demand Led Employment Growth to Use Class

5.14 The Sept 2006 based Experian forecasts of job growth by Industry Sector are at Annex 5. They have been allocated to a Use Class as follows:

Table 24. Increase in Jobs by Land Use Class 2006 Forecast 2006 Land Use Industry Sectors (Forecast 2016 2026 Change (ABI) Base) 2006-2026

B1 Offices, Banking + Insurance, other Finance & 15,300 17,480 19,011 19,669 +2,189 Businesses

B1c – B2 Industry Food, Drink and Tobacco to Other Manufacturing 2,400 2,319 1,662 1,566 -753 (excluding Minerals)

B8 Warehousing Transport and 1,300 1,863 2,276 2,663 +800 Communication

Assumed Total Jobs in B1 – B8 19,000 21,662 22,949 23,898 +2,236 Uses

Total Jobs All Sectors - 47,100 49,900 52,400 +2,800

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 44 +5,300

5.15 The table above and at Annex 5 shows: a) The difficulty of categorising Industry Sectors to land use or Use Classes and devising meaningful floorspace requirements b) The forecasts do show in general terms the increase in office jobs and the continued decline in manufacturing/industrial jobs.

iii) Gross and Net Employment Floorspace Requirement

5.16 There are no targets for employment floorspace in the South East Plan. Consequently it is not possible to assess any floorspace requirements against the level of outstanding permissions.

5.17 It is possible to derive an estimate of floorspace requirement based on the demand-led forecasts of employment growth in Use Classes B1-B8. The exercises have been done up to 2026 to have regard to the South East Plan. However the Regional Economic Strategy is to 2016. However trend data may be even less reliable over the longer term and are used with caution.

5.18 Using the average5 worker floorspace ratio of 1:30.7, (from Table 20) the forecast increase of an additional 2,236 B1-B8 jobs would require some 68,645m2 of floorspace. However the gross increase of 2,189 office type jobs would require some 49,645m2 of Class B1 floorspace (2,189 jobs x worker floorspace ratio of 1:22.75m2 from Table 20).

5.19 Table 3 indicates that the total floorspace available at March 2008 in outstanding planning permissions and vacant premises totals some 87,050m2. Table 25 compares this to the assumed floorspace requirements derived from the employment forecasts for 2006-2026.

Table 25. Comparison of Floorspace Requirement with Available Floorspace 2006-2026 Floorspace Requirement m2 Total Floorspace B1-B8 B1 Floorspace

Forecast Floorspace Requirement based on jobs 68,645 49,645 forecast to 2026.

Available Floorspace at March 87,050 47,390 2008 (Table 3).

Surplus / Deficit +18,405 -2,255

5.20 Table 25 indicates that in general there is sufficient employment floorspace in the pipeline to accommodate all trend based B1-B8 employment growth requirements up to 2026 with a surplus of about 18,405m2. However there would appear to be a slight shortfall of Class B1 floorspace at this time.

5 Using average W/F ratios has regard to the range of uses within Classes B1-B8 and difficulty of accurately matching employment sectors to Use Classes.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 45 Comparison of Demand Led Forecast Jobs and Floorspace Requirements with Forecast Growth of Jobs, Based on Available Floorspace

5.21 The total number of jobs that could be generated if all outstanding planning permissions and vacant premises at March 2008 from Table 3 are implemented, is shown below.

Table 26. Employment Generated from Existing Available Floorspace Offices and Industrial and Business Total Storage Floorspace Outstanding permissions and 62,120m2 24,930m2 87,050m2 vacant floorspace (Table 3) ÷ ÷ Worker floorspace ratios 22.75 36.0 - (Table 18) Total Jobs 2730 692 3,422

5.22 Table 26 indicates that the implementation of all available floorspace, at March 2008, could generate 3,422 jobs of which 2,730 are in the office and business sector. This is greater than the demand led employment forecasts of 2,236 jobs for B1-B8 uses in Table 24.

5.23 The outstanding planning permission figures themselves include the 20,717m2 of Business floorspace under construction for Unilever at the former National Grid site, Leatherhead. This development is expected to accommodate 1,300 jobs and is likely to be completed by the end of 2008. These 1,300 jobs accommodate almost 50% of the Experian forecast business use jobs to 2026.

Summaries and Conclusions

5.24 The forecast growth based on past trends of net increases in floorspace and the employment demand led forecasts indicate changes in employment to 2026 in the range of, a marginal loss of jobs to an increase of 2,238 jobs within Class B1-B8 uses. However, the implementation of all available planning permissions and take up of existing vacant premises would generate some 3,422 jobs. This is significantly higher than the demand led forecast.

5.25 General

 The District is an area of high demand for employment and other land uses.

 The District is likely to remain prosperous and economically buoyant in the future but this should not be taken for granted.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 46  The District’s economy relies heavily on the significant number of small firms notwithstanding there are major headquarters premises of national and multinational firms in the area.

 Leatherhead is the main employment centre in the District.

 There are high concentrations of employment and firms in Leatherhead North ward yet this ward scores relatively poorly (in Surrey terms) with regard to Indices of Multiple Deprivation.

 The existing commercial stock is more modern than the national average especially with regard to office and B1 premises. Overall some 45% of the stock is less than 30 years old.

 CLG data of the existing commercial floorspace stock indicates some losses of floorspace between 2000-2007. However at the same time the number of jobs has increased; unemployment has remained very low and the amount of floorspace available in planning permissions, or vacant, is high.

 At the 2001 Census the number of net in-commuters and the number of out-commuters was similar.

 Significantly higher proportions of Mole Valley residents, who are economically active, are self employed compared to the national average.

 Job densities – being the relationship between the total jobs in the district and the number of residents of working age, is also similar (ie 1 job per working age resident). This indicates that any increases in the number of jobs would have to be met by any forecast increases in economically active population of the District, or additional in-commuting.

 However, population forecasts indicate that the working age population is likely to decrease.

5.26 Employment Forecast and Floorspace Requirement

 Experian job demand led forecasts indicate an increase in total jobs across all sectors, between 2006-2026, of 5,300 2,800 jobs. Within Class B1-B8 this is 2,236 jobs. This can be met from current commercial floorspace commitments.

 Gross outstanding planning permissions and vacant floorspace can accommodate an additional 3,422 jobs in Class B1–B8 uses. This is 1,186 (53%) more jobs than the Experian forecast.

5.27 Conclusion

 PPS12 and consultation PPS4 (Planning for Sustainable Economic Development) and the Government’s proposed changes to the South East Plan, emphasise the need to facilitate a flexible supply of land to meet the varying needs of the employment sectors. The Experian forecast increase in jobs is less than can be accommodated in

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 47 outstanding permissions and vacant premises. However this need for flexibility outweighs allowing losses of floorspace by trying to match forecast employment with available floorspace.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 48 Annex 1

Table 7. Take Up of Vacant Premises and other Changes of Occupier : Oct 2001 – March 2008.

LEATHERHEAD DORKING

Offices Industry Storage Offices Industry Storage (B1U, B1a) (B1c-B2) (B8) (B1U, B1a) (B1c-B2) (B8)

April 2007 - 34,007 3,927 32,431 26,875 9,880 - March 2008

April 2006 - 94,238 25,147 - 6,145 4,181 - March 2007

July 2005 – 42,725 2,125 - 15,374 8,714 - March 06

April 2004 – 84,279 8,525 - 19,215 18,480 - June 2005

Oct 2003 – 18,231 7,430 10,395 9,738 - - March 2004

Oct 2002 – 108,445 10,895 2,600 1,840 5,630 2,500 Sept 2003

Oct 2001 – 8,572 9,652 15,575 8,325 (Up to) 10,000 - Sept 2002

Oct 2001 – March 2008 390,497 67,791 61,001 87,512 56,885 2,500 (6.5 yrs) Total ft2

Convert to m2 36,280 6,300 5,670 8,130 5,280 230

* Annual Average 5,580 970 870 1,250 810 35 m2

TOTAL (ft2)

Offices Industry Storage (B1U, B1a) (B1c-B2) (B8)

April 2007 - 60,882 13,807 32,431 March 2008

April 2006 - 100,383 29,328 - March 2007

July 2005 - 58,099 10,929 - March 2006

April 2004 – 103,494 27,005 - June 2005

Oct 2003 – 27,969 7,430 10,395 March 2004

Oct 2002 – 110,285 16,525 5,100 Sept 2003

Oct 2001 – 16,897 19,652 15,575 Sept 2002

Oct 2001 – June 2008 478,009 124,676 63,501 (6.5 yrs) Total ft2

Convert to m2 44,410 11,580 5,900

* Annual Average 6,830 1,780 910 m2

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 49 Annex 2

MOLE VALLEY DISTRICT COUNCIL

OUTSTANDING COMMERCIAL PERMISSIONS AT:- 31 MARCH 2008

ALL FIGURES IN SQUARE METRES (m2)

DEVELOPMENT LEATHERHEAD DORKING RURAL TOTAL m2 m2 m2 m2

A2-N/S 166 0 0 166 A2-U/C 0 0 0 0

TOTAL 166 0 0 166

B1-Unfettered N/S 2,040 0 473 2,513 B1-Unfettered U/C 1,642 0 0 1,642

TOTAL 3,682 0 473 4,155

Bla-N/S 12,985 523 578 14,086 Bla-U/C 22,171 957 677 23,805

TOTAL 35,156 1,480 1,255 37,891

Blb-N/S 148 0 0 148 Blb-U/C 0 0 0 0

TOTAL 148 0 0 148

Blc-N/S 0 157 1,127 1,284 Blc-U/C 0 0 146 146

TOTAL 0 157 1,273 1,430

B2-N/S 600 1,355 260 2,215 B2-U/C 1,460 7,672 0 9,132

TOTAL 2,060 9,027 260 11,347

B8-N/S 4,000 0 862 4,862 B8-U/C 0 1,810 0 1,810

TOTAL 4,000 1,810 862 6,672

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 50 Annex 3

TOTAL OF NET FLOORSPACE AVAILABLE ADDITIONAL TO OUTSTANDING PLANNING PERMISSIONS : MARCH 2008

LEATHERHEAD: No. of Units (m2)

Retail (town centre) (Class A1–A5) 11 N/A

Offices and Unfettered B1 29 11,113

Industry (B1b and B1c, B2) 1 1,069

Storage (B8) 3 3,490

DORKING: No. of Units (m2)

Retail (Class A1-A5) 21 N/A

Offices (B1a and Unfettered B1) 13 8,819

Industry (B1b, B1c, B2) 4 922

Storage - -

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 51 Annex 4

CLASS B1-B8 PLANNING PERMISSIONS AND VACANT PREMISES AT MARCH 2008 : INDIVIDUAL SUMMARIES

LEATHERHEAD: PLANNING PERMISSIONS Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 1998/1542 Halliburton, Third building as part Policy E2 - B1 7950 NS ? X Halliburton built and occupy 2 units. Springfield Drive, of Headquarters SLEL* Consequently the planning permission Leatherhead development for (*suitably for the 3rd unit will not lapse. However it Halliburton located is unknown if Halliburton intend to employment construct this unit. land) 2003/0276 Unit 3, Plough Offices and vehicle Policy E2 - B2 400 NS  X Additional building for an existing Industrial Estate, workshop for recycling SLEL occupier. New buildings for this Kingston Road, company. company have recently been erected Leatherhead elsewhere on the site. 2004/1275 37 Bridge Street, Change of use of Policy E7 - B1a 92 NS  X Premises have been advertised as to let Leatherhead hairdressers to offices. Town but are still occupied as hairdressers. Centre 2004/2160 Kingslea Works, Development of 16 Policy E2 - B1c/B2/B8 1460 UC   The development is under construction. Kingston Road, industrial units in 5 SLEL Leatherhead buildings. 2005/1215 ERA, Cleeve Road, Test facilities building Policy E2 - B1 148 UC   Additional building for an existing Leatherhead for ERA SLEL occupier. 2006/0107 Baydell House, Two B1 buildings Policy E2 - B1 1284 CV   Site has recently been completed and at Brook Way, comprising 9 units. SLEL March 2008 2 out of 9 units were Leatherhead occupied. Counted as completed and vacant. 2006/0492 Hascombe House, Three storey Local centre B1a 650 NS  X Application was originally allowed on 65-73 The Street, extension to provide appeal and has since been renewed. Ashtead offices and flat.s 2006/0598 r/o 29-33 High Replacement garages Local centre B1a 84 CV   Development completed and available to Street, Bookham with office suites. let at survey of March/April 2008. 2006/1036 National Grid Site, Headquarters building Policy E2 - B1 20717 UC   Site well under construction at March Kelvin Avenue / for Unilever. SLEL 2008 and planned occupation by Springfield Drive, Unilever by the end of the year. Leatherhead 2006/1943 Photo Me, Church Redevelopment for Policy E2 - B8/B2/B1a 657 NS   Original Photo Me premises were Road, Bookham warehousing and SLEL destroyed in a fire in December 2004. offices for Photo Me. The planning permission was granted in

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 52 LEATHERHEAD: PLANNING PERMISSIONS Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 Sept 2006. 2006/2002 Phase 1, Axis Construction of two Policy E2 - B1 1642 CV   Completed and available to let at end of Centre, Cleeve blocks of B1 units SLEL March 2008 when 2 out of the 10 units Road, Leatherhead (total 10 units). were occupied. 2007/0679 Phase 2, Axis Construction of two Policy E2 - B1-B8 2040 NS   Second phase of the Axis development Centre, Cleeve blocks of B1-B8 units SLEL has not yet started. Road, Leatherhead (total 9 units). 2007/1971 The Old Dairy, Minor office extension Built up B1a 78 UC   Grove Road, area Ashtead 2008/0021 1-2 Brook Way, Industrial buildings for Policy E2 - B2 450 NS  X Development comprises additional Kingston Road, car and commercial SLEL building for Leatherhead Motor Co, Leatherhead vehicle repairs. additional to other new units recently constructed on the site. 2008/021 Seeboard Site, 3-Storey office block Policy E7 - B1a 1944 NS  X Vacant site being actively marketed. Guildford Road, Town Leatherhead Centre

LEATHERHEAD: VACANT PREMISES Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 - First 4 Media, Bridge Warehousing with Policy E2 - B8 1559 Vacant   Advertised as being ‘Under Offer’ at Works, Kingston ancillary offices SLEL March 2008. Road, Leatherhead - Unit B, Imperial Modern warehouse Policy E2 - B8 1188 ?   Advertised to let but may still be Park, Randalls Way, premises SLEL occupied. Leatherhead - Unit 1D, Crouch Warehouse unit Policy E2 - B8 743 Vacant   Last remaining sub unit from a larger Yard, Barnett Wood SLEL vacancy that has now mostly been relet. Lane, Leatherhead - Units 5 and 6, Two industrial units. Policy E2 - B1c/B2 1069 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead Trade SLEL Estate, Station Road, Leatherhead

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 53 LEATHERHEAD: VACANT PREMISES Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2

- Travis Perkins, Oak First floor offices Policy E2 - B1a 318 Vacant   Advertised to let. Road / Kingston SLEL Road, Leatherhead - 25-29 High Street, Office suites Policy E7 - B1a 88-114 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead Town Centre - Claire House, Bridge Offices Policy E7 - B1a 487 Vacant   Advertised to let as refurbished offices. St / Emlyn Lane, Town Leatherhead Centre - Langbourne House, Large business use Policy E2 - B1 2592 Vacant   Advertised to let. Randalls Way, building SLEL Leatherhead - Westminster House, Modern office building Policy E2 - B1a 901 Vacant   Advertised to let. Randalls Way / SLEL Cleeve Road, Leatherhead - Olympus House, Modern business use Policy E2 - B1 929 Part   Building totalling 2067m2. Visual ERA Site, Cleeve building SLEL vacant estimate that about 50% of the building Road, Leatherhead is occupied. Therefore estimated as about 10,000 ft2 (929m2 ) is vacant. Advertised to let. - Castlebank House, 3 office suites in Built up B1a 84 Vacant   Office suites advertised to let. Oak Road / Kingston 1960s building. area Road, Leatherhead - Ashcombe House, Relatively modern Policy E7 - B1a 255 - 1110 Vacant   Advertised as refurbished offices of The Crescent, town centre office Town 1633m2. Part had been relet between Leatherhead building Centre April 2007 – March 2008. - Manor House, The Two office suites Policy E7 - B1a 46-220 Vacant   Advertised to let. Crescent, Town Leatherhead Centre - Thornets House, 2nd floor offices Built up B1a 269 Vacant   Advertised to let. Challenge Court, area Barnett Wood Lane, Leatherhead - James House, Office premises Policy E7 - B1a 113-534 Vacant   Advertised to let. Emlyn Lane, Town

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 54 LEATHERHEAD: VACANT PREMISES Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 Leatherhead Centre - 15-17 Bridge Street, Town centre offices Policy E7 - B1a 62-142 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead Town Centre - Fountain House, Office suite Policy E2 - B1 119 Vacant   Advertised to let. Cleeve Road, SLEL Leatherhead - Bridge House, Offices and ancillary Built up B1a 367 Vacant   Advertised to let. Kingston Road, storage area Leatherhead - Arkensis House, Offices in modern Policy E2 - B1 313 Vacant   Advertised to let. Brook Way, Kingston premises SLEL Road, Leatherhead - 291 Kingston Road, Self contained office Built up B1a 130 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead building area - Ex Baydel Premises, Commercial premises Policy E2 - B1a 224 Vacant   Advertised as economical offices to let. Unit 2, Brook Way, on industrial estate. SLEL Kingston Road, Leatherhead - Kings Court, Part of modern office Policy E2 - B1a 450 Vacant   Advertised to let. The rest of the Kingston Road, building SLEL building is occupied. Leatherhead - 2-4 Upper Fairfield Small modern office Built up B1a 132 Vacant   Advertised to let. Road, Leatherhead building. area - Gravel Hill, Ground floor offices in Policy E7 B1a 27 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead period building - 1 The Crescent, Town centre offices Policy E7 - B1a 120-379 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead Town Centre - Bridge House, 23-27 Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 116-548 Vacant   Advertised to let. Bridge Street, building Town Leatherhead Centre - 12-14 Bridge Street, Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 39 Vacant   Advertised to let. Leatherhead suite Town Centre

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 55 LEATHERHEAD: VACANT PREMISES Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2

- Swan House, 24 Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 214-432 Vacant   Advertised to let. Bridge Street, building Town Leatherhead Centre - The White House, Small office building Built up B1a 201 Vacant   Advertised to let. Church Road, area Leatherhead

DORKING: PLANNING PERMISSIONS Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 2004/1450 r/o 165-173 High Two storey office Policy E7 - B1a 205 NS  X Earlier permission which has been Street, Dorking extension Town renewed. Centre 2005/0249 The Engine Shed, 6 small industrial units Policy E2 - B1c/B2 1193 NS  X Not started. Site currently in open Dorking West SLEL storage uses. Station, Station Road, Dorking 2006/0156 Johnston Sweepers, Storage building Policy E2 - B8 162 NS  ? Storage building for existing occupier. Curtis Road, Dorking SLEL 2006/0767 r/o 41 West Street, Convert former bakery Policy E7 - B1a 41 NS ? ? There is an alternative permission to Dorking to offices Town convert this building to a dwelling. Centre 2007/0461 77 South Street, Refurbishment of Built up B1a 197 UC   Conversion works have commenced. Dorking building with offices area over. 2007/0914 Book House, 4 industrial/storage Policy E2 - B2/B8 1652 UC   Development commenced at March Glebelands Centre, units and SLEL 2008. Vincent Lane, refurbishment of Dorking existing building to form 4 units. 2007/1788 r/o 29-31 High Conversion to form Policy E7 - B1c 157 NS  X Not started. Street, Dorking craft workshop Town Centre

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 56 DORKING: PLANNING PERMISSIONS Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2

2001/0026 Pippbrook Business New Policy E3 - B2-B8 (+ 8590 UC  ? Development commenced in Oct 2005 Park, Curtis Road, industrial/business Local Plan ancillary but as yet no buildings have been Dorking park site. Allocation offices) erected. Site has been marketed for about 10 years.

DORKING: VACANT PREMISES Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 - Daws Engineering Industrial buildings Policy E2 - B2 190-348 Vacant   Some units have already been occupied. Building, Curtis converted into smaller SLEL Road, Dorking units. - Units 2 and 4 2 Small industrial units Policy E2 - B1c 454 Vacant   Advertised to let. Tillingbourne Court, SLEL Dorking Business Park - Unit 12, Vincent Small industrial unit Policy E2 - B2 119 Vacant   Advertised to let on agents website. Works, Vincent SLEL Lane, Dorking - 250-256 High Street, Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 929 Vacant   Refurbished offices to let. Dorking suite Town Centre - Brockham House, Large modern office Policy E2 - B1 2693 Vacant   Advertised to let. Premises have been Dorking Business building SLEL vacant for about 5 years. Park, Station Road, Dorking - Senet House, Large modern office Policy E2 - B1 2511 Vacant   Advertised to let. Premises have been Dorking Business building SLEL vacant for about 5 years. Currently Park, Station Road, being refurbished. Dorking - South House, South Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 162-320 Vacant   Advertised to let. Street, Dorking building Town Centre

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 57 DORKING: VACANT PREMISES Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2

- Westhumble Unit, Modern industrial Policy E2 - B1b 316-676 Vacant   Advertised to let. Dorking Business research building. SLEL Park, Station Road, Dorking - Lawster House, 140 Self contained office Built up B1a 371 Vacant   Advertised as office suites to let. High Street, Dorking building area - St Martins House, St Town centre offices – Policy E7 - B1a 370 Vacant   Advertised to let. Martins Walk, High 2 units Town Street Centre - Old Magistrates Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 542 Vacant ? ? Vacant offices. There is also a planning Court, High Street, building Town permission in to convert part of this Dorking Centre building to residential. - Franklin House, Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 249 Vacant   Advertised to let. Parsonage Square, building Town Station Road, Dkg Centre - Parsonage House, Town centre office Policy E7 - B1a 553 Vacant   Advertised to let. Parsonage Square, building Town Station Road, Centre Dorking - 233-239 High Street, Town centre offices Policy E7 - B1a 269 Vacant   Advertised to let. Dorking Town Centre

RURAL: PLANNING PERMISSIONS Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 98/0337 Greens Farm, Conversion to Rural B1b + B1c 588 UC   The permission has been part Rusper Road, workshops implemented. Newdigate 2004?0906 Swires Farm Henfold i) Change of use to Rural B1a 117 NS  ? + Lane, Beare Green office/workshop B8 607 2006/0189 ii) Change of use to storage and

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 58 RURAL: PLANNING PERMISSIONS Floorspace Location Applic. No. Address Description Use Class Available Status1 Deliverable2 Available3 Commentary Type m2 workshop 2004/1279 Laundry Way, Capel B1 unit as part of a Village B1c 147 NS  X Permission for the development has only redevelopment recently been granted following scheme for 16 completion of a S106 agreement. dwellings. 2005/261 Adj Unit 3, New small industrial Rural B8 148 NS  X Not started Betchworth Works, unit as an extension to Ifield Road, existing building Charlwood 2005/1352 Stores at Tapwood Change of use of Rural B1-B8 473 NS  ? Not started Pit, Main Road, building to B1-B8 use Buckland 2006/1045 Lodge Farm, Lodge Change of use to B2 Rural B2 520 NS  ? Not started Lane, South use Holmwood 2007/226 Groundscapes, Replacement Rural B8 298 NS  ? Not started Coles Lane, Ockley premises for tree surgeon business 2007/0438 Gaterounds Farm, Change of use of Rural B1a 370 NS  ? Not started Parkgate Road, stable to offices Newdigate 2007/1239 Calf Shed, Timber Convert to offices Rural B1a 17 UC   Development commenced March 2008 Street, Headley 2008/154 The Granary, Ockley Convert to offices Rural B1a 218 UC   Development commenced July 2007 Court Farm, Ockley

RURAL / VACANT PREMISES - NO DATA

1 Status: NS = Not Started; UC = Under Construction; CV = Completed and Vacant

2 Deliverable – ie Can the planning permission be implemented? Are vacant premises genuinely available?

3 Available – Can the premises be occupied? ie, is the site under construction or completed and vacant? Are the premises advertised ‘to let’.

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 59 Annex 5

Experian Forecast for Surrey County Council 2006 : Employment in Mole Valley, 2001-2026

Class Industry Sector 2001 2006 2016 2026 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 942 1040 904 734 Oil & Gas Extraction 3 3 0 0 Other Mining 13 19 17 16 B1c-B2 Food, Drink & Tobacco 31 11 2 2 B1c-B2 Textiles & Clothing 186 298 239 195 B1c-B2 Wood & Wood Products 105 95 24 26 B1c-B2 Paper, Printing & Publishing 644 396 394 398 B1c-B2 Fuel Refining 121 37 14 14 B1c-B2 Chemicals 267 74 27 54 B1c-B2 Rubber & Plastics 176 133 114 133 B1c-B2 Metals 369 313 309 304 B1c-B2 Machinery & Equipment 123 72 28 2 B1c-B2 Electrical & Optical Equipment 443 346 340 370 B1c-B2 Transport Equipment 474 447 144 43 B1c-B2 Other Manufacturing 178 97 27 25 Gas, Electricity & Water 348 61 42 28 Construction 2884 4121 4460 4768 Wholesaling 3838 2689 2580 2614 Retailing 4629 4055 4398 4460 Hotels & Catering 2618 2141 2502 2864 B8 Transport 3667 1303 1512 1722 B8 Communications 601 560 764 941 B1 Banking & Insurance 3428 2444 2942 2697 B1 Business Services 13434 13250 14269 15146 B1 Other F&Bs (Finance & Business) 2594 1786 1800 1826 Public Admin & Defence 691 1059 1010 970 Education 3022 3017 3125 3443 Health 4075 4252 4316 4589 Other Services 2636 2774 3499 4222

Total 52890 47152 49929 52407

D:\Docs\2017-12-14\0d2593e53f2b7df203c20a612b52ba2e.doc 60

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