The MAPPE Strategy for GIS-Based Fate and Transport Modeling of Chemicals

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The MAPPE Strategy for GIS-Based Fate and Transport Modeling of Chemicals

1 1

1A GIS-based approach for modeling the fate and

2 transport of pollutants in Europe

3A.Pistocchi

4EC, DG JRC, IES, via E.Fermi, 1, 21020 Ispra (VA) Italy

[email protected] tel +390332785591 fax +390332785601.

6Abstract

7 This paper presents an approach to estimate chemical concentration in multiple

8environmental media (soil, water, and the atmosphere) with the sole use of basic

9geographical information system (GIS) operations, and particularly map algebra. This

10allows solving mass balance equations in a different way from the traditional methods

11involving numerical or analytical solution of systems of equations, producing maps of

12chemical fluxes and concentrations only through combinations of maps of emissions and

13environmental removal or transfer rates.

14 Benchmarking with the well-established EMEP MSCE-POP model shows that the

15method provides consistent results with this more detailed description. When available,

16experimental evidence equally supports the proposed method in relation to the more

17complex approaches.

18 Thanks to the use of GIS calculations, the results can be obtained with a spatial

19resolution limited only by input data; the use of map algebra warrants flexible

20modification of the model algorithms, for e.g. partitioning, degradation, and inter-media

21transfer. 1 2

1 The management of data directly in GIS, with no need for model input and output

2processing, stimulates the adoption of up-to-date representations of landscape and climate

3variables nowadays more and more frequently available from remote sensing acquisitions

4and sectoral studies.

5 The method is particularly suited for a preliminary assessment of the spatial

6distribution of chemicals especially under high uncertainty and when many chemicals

7and their synergy need to be investigated, prior to dipping into more specialized and

8computation-intensive numerical models.

9Introduction

10 In the last years, researchers have spent efforts in developing spatially distributed

11fate and transport models of chemicals, i.e. models allowing spatially explicit

12representations (maps) of contaminants from a given spatial distribution of sources [1, 2,

133, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 28], as well as model intercomparison exercises [14, 15, 47].

14 Existing spatially explicit models provide a valuable analytical tool in order to

15understand the mechanics of pollution; yet they tend to be rather complex when spatial

16resolution increases, requiring high computation time that makes them impractical

17outside of specific specialized studies.

18 At the same time, increasingly detailed spatial data on environmental processes

19and chemical emissions are becoming available in formats easy to process using

20geographic information systems (GIS). In chemical fate and transport modeling, GIS has

21been used so far mainly as a pre- and post-processor, although many examples appeared

22in the literature of spatially explicit models able to capture the fundamental spatial

23patterns of phenomena with no use of complex numerical models, capitalizing on the 1 3

1built-in analytical capabilities of GIS [27, 8, 9, 10, 26, 44]. By expanding the concepts

2already used in such approaches, and in many other areas of environmental and earth

3sciences, we aim at demonstrating the use of GIS calculations for chemical fate and

4transport assessment, as initially suggested in [23] and [25].

5Materials and methods

6Map-algebraic formulation of the fate and transport equations

7In this paper, we solve the mass balance equation directly in GIS in terms of map algebra

8(e.g. [29, 30] among many others – see Figure 1 for a general scheme of the calculation).

9This is a standard technique by which gridcell-based GIS software manipulate maps, by

10applying algebraic operations on a cell-by-cell basis. Using analysis capabilities built in

11GIS allows a very simple set up of calculations, with great flexibility in the choice of

12algorithms, and with a straightforward control on the calculation steps for error tracking.

13Moreover, model resolution is only limited by the availability of data with no need of

14complex processing of model input.

15In the paper, we will refer to soil, air and seawater compartments only. The case of inland

16waters can be treated in map-algebraic terms as discussed in a separate paper [43] and in

17[23]. For soils, during a period of constant E0 and Koverall a solution of the mass balance

18equation is:

E0 19M = M0 exp(K overallt)  (1  exp(K overallt)) (1) K overall

20Where M0 is an appropriate initial distribution of mass, and K overall is the overall removal

21rate, E0 is a map of chemical emissions to soil, while t is time. 1 4

1Equation (1) holds for cases where advection from the surrounding cells is negligible.

2Such is the case, for instance, of soil when lateral exchanges (e.g. re-deposition of

3contaminated sediments eroded upslope; re-infiltration of contaminated water from

4upstream; subsurface lateral fluxes) can be neglected. In such a case, E0 is the sum of

5local mass discharge and atmospheric deposition.

6Under steady state conditions, equation (1) becomes:

E 7M= 0 (1a). K overall

8Seawater can be treated in this way, assuming negligible lateral transport due to currents

9and dispersion (“water column approach”) as discussed in [22].

10The atmospheric compartment is described with the ADEPT model approach [31]. The

11concentration of a generic, reactive chemical in the atmosphere within the mixed layer at

12a generic point (x,y) is computed as:

n

13Catmo   EiSRi (x, y)exp(KΤti (x, y)) (2) i 1

14where Ei for i = 1, …, n is the emission at any of the n locations from where advective-

15dispersive fluxes enter the control volume. The maps SRi and Tti respectively represent a

16“source-receptor term” accounting for dilution and advective transport, and a “time of

17travel” of the contaminants, and K is the overall decay rate to which a chemical in subject

18throughout the pathway from the generic location i-th and the control volume boundary.

19As in the atmosphere advection and dilution largely dominate over other processes, a

20single K value for the whole Europe is normally acceptable [38]. The SRi and Tt maps

21used in this paper represent concentration in Europe (ug/m3) deriving from the emission

22of 1 Mt/y of a conservative contaminant in the generic i-th country, assuming emissions 1 5

1are distributed within the country according to population density. The ADEPT model

2(2) is evaluated and extended to a generic distribution of sources in a separate paper [21].

3 Atmospheric deposition is the product of a concentration map and a deposition

4velocity map:

5 Dep = Kdep Catmo (3)

6where Kdep is a map representing deposition velocities and is given by:

 P  K  (v  wP)  (1  )v   dep dep  diff K  7  aw  (3a)

8where P is precipitation, w is a scavenging factor, vdep is particle deposition velocity, vdiff

9is velocity of diffusion across the air-surface interface, Kaw is the air-water partitioning

10coefficient, and  is the fraction of chemical attached to the aerosol phase.

11 Deposition from the atmosphere sums to direct emission to the soil to compute

12soil mass balance according to equation (3), and the same for seawater.

13 The map Koverall in soil is given by:

E Q VOL 14 K overall     K deg Z (4) R s R L RG

15 where E is soil erosion rate, Q is water throughflow, VOL is volatilization rate

16from soil, and RS, RL, RG are coefficients that account for the partitioning of the substance

17in solid, liquid and gas phase in soils, whereas Kdeg is the degradation rate in soils, and

18 Z is the soil compartment bulk thickness.

19 The map Koverall in seawater is given by:

SETTL VOL 20 K overall    K deg Z (5) R sed Rdiss 1 6

1 where SETTL is the sediment settling velocity in seawater, VOL is volatilization

2rate from seawater, RSed, Rdiss are coefficients that account for the partitioning of the

3substance in sediment-attached and dissolved phase in soils, whereas Kdeg is the

4degradation rate in seawater, and Z is the seawater compartment mixing depth.

5 Further details and discussion on the computation of the different parameters in

6equations (3) to (5) can be found in [23, 38]. Calculation can be iterative, as

7volatilisation from soil and water provides additional input to the atmosphere, hence new

8depositions and so on. However, [11] showed that these feedback mass fluxes are often

9not relevant for most chemicals. A discussion of the model input landscape and climate

10parameters is in [24].

11The main practical strength of a map algebraic approach is the possibility to replace

12individual algorithms and input data for the calculation of Kdep or Koverall, simply by

13modifying individual input terms in map algebra expressions, with no need for re-coding

14numerical models. Moreover, input of individual model parameters is in the form of

15maps, which allows quick visual data control.

16Model implementation and benchmarking

17The equations above described can be easily implemented in any GIS software. The

18model has been named Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in Europe or

19MAPPE, the Italian word to denote maps. Model assumptions, algorithms and a software

20developed to run the model in the popular ArcGIS software are presented in [23, 37].

21 To evaluate the above proposed method, we performed a benchmarking exercise

22with the EMEP MSCE-POP model ([13]). The evaluation was done using

23polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorodibenzodioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs), in that 1 7

1they are relatively well studied, representative persistent organic pollutants (POPs)

2fulfilling the criteria of [12]. Calculations were performed under steady state

3assumptions.

4 The EMEP calculation results for PCBs appear to be quite significantly correlated

5(Figure 1 Supporting Information (S.I.)). In particular, atmospheric deposition is highly

6correlated to ocean concentration (94% explained variance), whereas atmospheric

7concentration is less correlated to deposition (80% explained variance). This suggests that

8spatial variation in modeled atmosphere deposition rates play a bigger role than variation

9in modeled ocean removal rate. The soil compartment shows a remarkably lower

10correlation with the air compartment than ocean, which consistently corresponds to a

11higher importance of the past history of emissions, and the spatial variation of removal

12rates in soils.

13In general, the “water column” model approach used for ocean in the present study does

14not introduce appreciable errors with regard to the MSCE-POP model, as lateral transfer

15does not appear important at the working scale of the model.

16 Table 1 (S.I.) reports the physico-chemical properties used for the chemicals.

17Table 2 (S.I.) provides the atmospheric emission totals per country, assumed as the only

18source of emission [18]. Chemical properties are the ones in [13] for PCB 153, and for

192,3,4, 7,8Cl5DF. The properties of the former have proven to represent reasonably well

20the behaviour of the sum of PCBs ([17]), while the ones of the latter have been used to

21describe the total concentration of dioxins and furans as a mixture in terms of toxic

22equivalents (TEQ) ([20]).

23Evaluation with monitoring data 1 8

1 The experimental data to be used for the evaluation of spatially distributed models

2should be as consistent and homogeneous as possible. Measurements can be quite

3sensitive to experimental conditions both when sampling in the field, and when

4performing analyses in the laboratory. In general, it would be preferable to refer to a

5homogeneous measurement campaign having sufficient representativeness of spatial

6patterns. Data sets having such features could be found in the case of PCBs for soils [33]

7and for air [32]. In the case of air passive sampling, it is worth mentioning that the data

8do not allow a direct comparison with atmospheric concentration as they provide values

9of chemical mass collected per sample during the measurement period. Nevertheless,

10there is a correlation between samples mass and atmospheric concentration in the gas

11phase ([36]), which allows considering the chemical mass per sample as a good proxy of

12total atmospheric concentration, at least in terms of general spatial trends. Despite being

13a widely studied class of chemicals, to our knowledge dioxins and furans have not yet

14been subject, as PCBs, to studies about their spatial distribution yielding georeferenced

15monitoring data. A compilation of monitoring data was available from [35], while for

16Swiss soils we referred to the data of [34]. Additionally, a preliminary model evaluation

17has been performed on the basis of dairy product lipid monitoring. Fatty dairy product

18samples are easy to collect and handle, and are promising as integrative passive samplers

19[48], although existing data are still insufficient for extensive evaluation of models. The

20results of this preliminary evaluation are presented and discussed in the Supporting

21Information. 1 9

1Results

2PCBs

3Atmospheric concentration (Figure 2 a) follows from the assumption of emissions

4proportional to national totals and population density, intrinsic in the ADEPT model [31],

5as clearly shown by some hot-spots that can be immediately linked to large urban areas.

6A large area with relatively high and uniform concentration is observed in Central

7Europe, while more peripheral areas show less relevant pollution. Deposition rates

8(Figure 2 b) follow precipitation, wind, and temperature (determining the air-water

9partition coefficient according to the exponential law illustrated in [13]), and they

10correspond to high latitudes and elevations. Areas with reduced air turbulence such as the

11Po plain in Italy, or Hungary, tend to have lower deposition rates. Deposition fluxes

12(Figure 2 c) follow atmospheric concentration, although in areas of strong variation for

13deposition rates, such as the Alps or Great Britain, patterns show some differentiation.

14The same considerations apply for soil and ocean concentrations (Figure 2 d); locally,

15variations in soil properties and climate (hence removal rates) may affect the spatial

16pattern, but the dominant shape of the spatial distribution originates from deposition

17fluxes.

18MAPPE and MSCE-POP model results correlation coefficients, and the ratio between

19mean predicted values of concentrations and deposition fluxes, are reported in Table 3

20(S.I.). Atmospheric concentration is predicted with relatively good consistency between

21the MAPPE and MSCE-POP models. MAPPE predicts lower concentrations as about

2258% of the ones predicted by MSCE-POP (Figure 2 S.I.). The MAPPE model explains

2388% of the variance produced by the MSCE-POP model. MAPPE predicts also lower 1 10

1deposition to land surface as about 57% (Figure 2 S.I.). It is to mention that this holds

2when comparing total (gas + particle phase) deposition of MAPPE with gas phase

3particle deposition only in MSCE-POP (as this is the result made available by EMEP). As

4gas phase to particle phase deposition rates ratios in MAPPE are usually in the range of 2

5to 5, atmospheric particle deposition in MAPPE is consequently lower than 57% of the

6one in MSCE-POP.

7The total deposition to the sea predicted by MAPPE is on average about twice as much as

8particle phase deposition in MSCE-POP (Figure 2 S.I.). According to the same

9considerations as before, it can be said that atmospheric particle phase deposition to the

10sea is lower than the one in MSCE-POP.

11Spatial trends of soil concentration predicted by the MAPPE model are reasonably

12consistent with the MSCE-POP model (about 40% variance explained), but MAPPE

13underestimates concentrations of a factor higher than 100 (Figure 3 S.I.), apart from the

14range of lower concentration values which are within less than one order of magnitude.

15For sea concentrations, the two models provide a consistent estimate of orders of

16magnitude, MAPPE predicting higher by about 20% (Figure 3 S.I.), but the correlation

17between the two models weakens slightly.

18 Neither the MSCE-POP nor the MAPPE model provide satisfactory correlation with the

19passive sampler mass distribution (see Figure 4 S.I. for spatial distribution of samples),

20although both capture a general trend in concentrations (Figure 3) as testified by the least

21square regression line shown in the graph. Determination coefficients are as low as 0.17

22for the MSCE-POP and 0.14 for the MAPPE model. The MSCE-POP model, though, is

23known to predict air concentration reasonably well [18, 19]. 1 11

1If one considers soil concentrations (see Figure 4 S.I. for spatial distribution of samples),

2the behaviour of the two models is rather different (Figure 4): the MSCE-POP model

3shows a very high dispersion of the output values with respect to monitoring data,

4whereas MAPPE seems to capture trends in a much more consistent way. At the same

5time, monitoring data suggest that correct soil concentration values should be somewhere

6in between the ones predicted by MSCE-POP (most of the times overestimating the

7measurements) and MAPPE (systematically underestimating them above values of about

81 ng/g, while keeping on the 1:1 line below; this behaviour suggests that for

9“background” sites the MAPPE model might be unbiased).

10Dioxins and Furans

11 Atmospheric concentration (Figure 5 S.I.) closely follows emissions, as in the case of

12PCBs. Two areas of high atmospheric concentration are highlighted, one corresponding

13to the big western conurbation spanning from London to Milan, and the other In central

14Europe. Also Bulgaria is predicted as a hot spot area for atmospheric concentration.

15Deposition rates (Figure 5 S.I.) follow similar patterns to the ones for PCBs. Deposition

16fluxes (Figure 5 S.I.) suggest hot spots in Switzerland, Belgium, Czech Republic, and in

17many large urban areas due to high air concentration. Soil and ocean concentrations

18follow the same pattern as deposition fluxes (Figure 5 S.I.).

19Correlation coefficients and the ratio between mean predicted values of concentrations

20and deposition fluxes are also reported in Table 3 S.I.. Atmospheric concentration is

21predicted with relatively good consistency between the MAPPE and MSCE-POP models.

22Although the scatter of the values is slightly wider than for PCBs (R2=0.74), there is no

23systematic underestimation (Figure 6 S.I.). In this case, however, MAPPE estimates 1 12

1deposition to both land surface and ocean, on average higher of a factor between 2 and 3,

2slightly higher for land surface (Figure 6 S.I.).

3Spatial trends of soil concentration predicted by the MAPPE model are reasonably

4consistent with the MSCE-POP model, MAPPE estimating concentrations a factor of

5about 2 lower (Figure 7 S.I.). For sea concentrations, the two models provide a consistent

6estimate in absolute values, with higher correlation between the estimates than in the case

7of soils (Figure 7 S.I.).

8With reference to both the compilation of European monitoring [35], for concentration in

9soils and the atmosphere, and the more recent survey on Swiss soils [34], MSCE-POP

10and MAPPE are consistently underestimating air and soil concentration of a factor not

11less than 10. The spatial trends of concentrations are also showing poor correspondence

12between monitoring data and model results (Figure 5).

13Discussion

14PCB

15The lower predictions of the MAPPE model with respect to MSCE-POP can be explained

16in terms of missing sources (such as extra-continental emissions, volatilization from

17soils). This reason can well account for a difference of about 40% in emissions, hence

18concentrations [38]. In general, there is no evidence that one of the two patterns is better

19than the other. From the passive sampler results (Figure 3) it appears that the two scatters

20are very similar to each other.

21The two models provide comparable orders of magnitude also of atmospheric deposition,

22but significant discrepancies may arise when separating particle phase and gas phase. 1 13

1This critically depends on the fraction of the chemical that the model predicts as being

2attached to aerosol. Differences up to a factor of 10, depending on the equations used and

3the value of the parameters, were observed in other model intercomparisons [14].

4The large underestimation of soil concentration in MAPPE with respect to the MSCE-

5POP values can be due to a combination of the following factors:

6 1) the assumed exponential soil chemical profile of MSCE-POP, results being

7 referred to the first layer of soil (1 mm); average concentrations in soil can be as

8 low as 5 to 10% than the one in the top mm of soil [38]; this leads also to higher

9 soil volatilization, hence atmospheric emissions not accounted for in MAPPE;

10 2) the effect of past emission history: the transient effects due to the history of past

11 emissions highlight that soil masses at present days can be as high as a factor of 5

12 than the ones predicted by steady state balance from present emissions [38];

13 3) from Figure 3 S.I. total deposition in MAPPE is lower than particle phase

14 deposition in MSCE-POP on land; this means that a fortiori total deposition is

15 estimated lower by a factor >2.

16 The product of the three factors of underestimation due to the reasons discussed

17above is between 10 x 5 x 2 = 100 and 20 x 5 x 2 = 200, which can justify the

18discrepancy. It is worth stressing that experimental evidence is not clear about the

19applicability of an exponential soil concentration profile as suggested in [39], due to the

20effects of disturbances such as bioturbation, ploughing in agricultural soils, and other

21factors which tend to homogenize concentrations in topsoil (e.g. [40, 41, 46]). 1 14

1 The MAPPE model captures a general spatial trend, and the order of magnitude of

2concentrations, also with respect to measurements in fatty dairy products, as discussed in

3the S.I.

4Dioxins and Furans

5MAPPE and MSCE-POP provide consistent estimates, with no appreciable discrepancy.

6However, both models produce the same type of underestimation of the monitoring data,

7about a factor of 10. Part of the underestimation can be linked to emission inventories,

8which are apparently low. In fact, estimates issued by EMEP while preparing the material

9for this paper ([19]) showed an increase of emissions by a factor 3 with respect to the

10ones in [18]. Another issue to address is the time frame of the monitoring data: the data

11compiled in [35] refer to years from the 1980’s to mid 1990’s, while the model results are

12obtained with emissions of the year 2001. However, according to EMEP ([18], [19]),

13during years from 1990 to 2004 the reduction in emissions over Europe was estimated as

14only 35 %. Other comparisons with model applications show that the trend in

15underestimation is a common problem. For instance, the EMEP MSCE-POP model

16updated in 2006 ([19]) still confirms a generally light underestimation, and an inspection

17of Figure 4 in [11] also suggests that predictions tend to lay towards the lower limit of

18monitored values, compatibly with an underestimation of a factor of 3 approximately. It

19is also to be considered that many of the data used for comparison refer to urban

20environments, where concentrations tend to be significantly higher (up to a factor of 5)

21than in background locations ([19]).

22Soil concentration is slightly underestimated by the MAPPE model with respect to

23MSCE-POP, but still in the same order of magnitude. Unlike for PCBs, the results of the 1 15

1EMEP model are provided as averages over the top 5 cm of soil. This reduces the effect

2of the exponential profile already discussed for PCBs. The transient effect in dioxin

3emissions from 1990 reported in [18], can account for a factor of about 2 [38]. Ocean

4concentrations appear unbiased and largely dominated by atmospheric deposition. For the

5case of soils, we observe the same trend in underestimation as for the atmosphere. It is

6interesting to notice that more recent samples, as in [34], are less underestimated. This

7supports the conjecture that part of the underestimation on the data of [35] is due to the

8time period of the samples.

9 The MAPPE model reproduces a weak spatial trend, as from Figure 5, showing

10that predictions are within a factor of 10 from observations. The MAPPE model captures

11the order of magnitude of concentrations with respect to measurements in lipids, as

12discussed in the S.I., but not the spatial pattern.

13Perspectives and conclusions

14 The paper demonstrates the use of the novel MAPPE approach to describe the fate and

15transport of contaminants in the environment, using GIS analysis only with no need for

16specialized model codes. The approach has a number of practical advantages, among

17which virtual independence on resolution (only limited by the available input data),

18generally low computation time requirements compared to other models, easy

19identification of the calculation steps that contribute the most to discrepancies between

20observations and predictions, thanks to the simplicity of algorithms and the possibility of

21visually inspecting maps of all model parameters. Moreover, model algorithms can be

22adjusted quickly without any code modification as required instead in traditional models.

23We show that the model provides results which are consistent with the ones of the much 1 16

1more sophisticated and comprehensive MSCE-POP model, and we explain discrepancies

2on the basis of model assumptions adopted for the present study, which may be anyway

3modified upon strong monitoring evidence. Comparisons with monitoring data, however,

4highlight that the proposed approach does not perform less accurately, and sometimes can

5be regarded as preferable, with respect to the MSCE-POP one. The proposed method

6aims at providing a synergic, and not an alternative tool to the more comprehensive

7models, that provide insights on more detailed aspects of the mechanics of pollution but

8may be surrogated by the proposed approach for the purpose of mapping long term

9averaged spatial distributions of pollutants, integrating monitoring, modeling and

10emission inventories as suggested in [40].

11Acknowledgements

12The research was partly funded by the European Commission FP6 contract no. 003956

13(NoMiracle IP: http://nomiracle.jrc.it ). I thank gratefully V.Shatalov and E.Mantseva

14from the EMEP MSCE-POP modeling team for providing data, reports and discussion,

15and colleagues D.Pennington, G.Umlauf, I. Vives Rubio, and M.P.Vizcaino Martinez at

16the IES of EC DG JRC for their critical reading of versions of the manuscript, and

17valuable comments and suggestions.

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1

Emissions air Overall average (national totals) air removal rate for Europe

Source-receptor maps Air concentration map

Time-of-travel maps

Landscape and climate K map maps dep

Atmospheric K map, overall deposition map water Scalar physico- chemical properties: K , K , K map, soil ow, aw, overall molecular weight , , degradation rate, air , , degradation rate, soil , Soil Water , concentration concentration degradation rate, map map water.

Emissions soil Emissions water

2Figure 1 – logics of the map calculations. In grey input data (grey boxes are maps, grey text scalars);

3in black boxes, output maps. 1 26

1a b

2c d

3

4Figure 2 – atmospheric concentration (a), deposition rate (b), soil and sea concentration (c) and

5deposition fluxes (d) for PCBs, as predicted by the MAPPE model.

6 1 1

1E+03 g n

s

s 1E+02 a m

r e l p m a s

e

v 1E+01 i s s a p

1E+00 1E-03 1E-02 1E-01 1E+00 predicted concentration ng m-3 2 A

1E+03 g n

s

s 1E+02 a m

r e l p m a s

e

v 1E+01 i s s a p

1E+00 1E-03 1E-02 1E-01 1E+00 predicted concentration ng m-3 3 B

2 1 28

1Figure 3 – model evaluation for PCBs with air passive samplers: (A) MSCE-POP model; (B) MAPPE

2model 1 29

1

MAPPE

1000

100

10 l e d o m

g / g n

C 1 0.1 1 10 100

0.1

0.01 C ng/g monitoring 2 1 30

MSCE-POP

1000

100

10 l e d o m

g / g n

C 1 0.1 1 10 100

0.1

0.01 C ng/g monitoring 1

2Figure 4– model evaluation for PCBs with soil samples. Lines 1:1 and a factor 10 interval are

3displayed. 1 31

1

soil 1:1 obs / 10 air soil (Schmid et al., 2005) obs X 10

10000

1000 n o

i 100 t a r t n e c n

o 10 c

d e t u p

m 1 o c

0.1

0.01 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 observed concentration 2

3Figure 5 – scatter diagram of observations and calculation results for dioxins. Values are in ng I-

4TEQ /Kg dm for soils and fg I-TEq / m3 for air. Data refer to the MAPPE model prediction, while

5the MSCE-POP ones are very similar and not reported for simplicity.

6

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