Illinois Job Index

1. Illinois Job Index

Release Data Issue 2/30/2017 Jan 1990 /Jan 2017 2017.2 www.real.illinois.edu For January 2017 Illinois Job Index, Illinois, RMW and the nation all had positive job growth. The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

Dec 2016 – Jan 2017 Last 12 months Jan 2017 Grow Feb Total non-farm Growth Number of th Number Shadow employment Rate % Jobs Rate of Jobs U.R.* 2017 % Positive Nation 0.16 238,000 1.64 2,352,000 9.96  RMW 0.13 26,200 1.21 243,300 10.30 Illinois 0.03 1,700 0.26 15,900 9.96

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004. Talking Points

. Illinois added 1,700 jobs in January 2017, compared with a revised 2,000 job gain in December 2016. Compared to January 2016, Illinois has added 15,900 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 100 jobs per month. . The Nation added 238,000 jobs at a rate of 0.16% in January 2017, compared with a revised 155,000-job gain in December 2016. The three-month moving average was up by 185,700 jobs per month. . The RMW added 26,200 jobs in January after a revised 8,600-job gain in December 2016. The three- month moving average was up by 20,000 jobs per month. . The state of Illinois now has 37,800 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started. . In 2016, Illinois had employment growth for seven months and employment declines for five months. Illinois . Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, and Information. Notes . Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 439,300 new jobs. . By January 2017 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead jo b recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial Activities, Professional & business services, and Leisure & hospitality. . The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.96%, 10.30% and 9.96%, compared to official unemployment rates of 5.7%, 4.5% and 4.7%. . Through January 2017, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 14.33%, 19.25%, and 33.32%, respectively.

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 1 . Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 238,000 jobs. Sectors such as Trade, transportation & utilities, Construction, and Professional & business services had major job growth. . The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 7,150,000 additional jobs since the last Nation employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their Notes respective peaks in 2000. . The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2016 were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12% and 0.13% respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index Current Changes in Jobs January 2017 Previous Peak Changes in Jobs Index to Jan since Pervious Number of Jobs Index to Jan 1990 since Jan 1990 1990 Peak Nation 145,563,000 133.32 126.57 (Dec-2007) 36,378,000 7,150,000 RMW 20,380,500 119.25 119.44 (Jun-2000) 3,289,900 -24,000 Illinois 6,023,000 114.33 115.08 (Nov-2000) 754,700 -31,000 Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – January 2017

140.00

135.00

130.00

125.00

120.00

115.00

110.00

105.00

100.00 National RMW IL

95.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates Feb 2016 – Jan 2017

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 2 Feb/16 Mar/16 Apr/16 May/16 Jun/16 Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 Oct/16 Nov/16 Dec/16 Jan/17 0.40%

-0.10%

Nation RMW IL -0.20%

Barometer of Job Recovery

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 3 * The figure 776,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov- 2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 470,300. Adding 305,700, the number of additional jobs that needed to be created after taking shadow unemployment rate into account, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create 776,000.

**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 439,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through January 2017.

Employment Growth Rate by Sector: Total Non-Farm Employment growth rate by Sector, December 2016 – January 2017

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 4 20 Construction

30 Manufacturing

40 Trade, transportation & utilities

50 Information

55 Financial activities

60 Professional & business services

65 Education & health

70 Leisure & hospitality

80 Other Services

90 Government

-1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% Nation RMW IL

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 5 . Illinois posted positive employment change in January 2017 by adding 1,700 jobs. Five out of ten sectors recorded net gains. Compared to December 2016, Construction (-1.08% to 3.23%) had the greatest performance gain, while Information (-0.10% to -0.82%) had the greatest performance loss. Other Services (-0.16% to 0.24%), Education & health (-0.24% to 0.16%), and Financial Activities (0.60% to 0.99%) experienced performance gains too, while Government (0.00% to -0.48%), Leisure & hospitality (0.02% to -0.59%), Professional & business services (0.13% to -0.33%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.33% to 0.22%) and Manufacturing (-0.11% to -0.46%) also experienced net losses in performances. . In January at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were: o Professional & business services: 46,000 (0.23%) o Construction: 40,000 (0.59%) o Trade, transportation & utilities: 35,000 (0.13%) Sector . Information (3,000 less jobs at -0.11%) lost jobs at the national level in January. . For Illinois, the top-three sectors that gained jobs in January were: notes o Construction: 6,800 (3.23%) o Financial Activities: 3,800 (0.99%) o Trade, transportation & utilities: 2,700 (0.22%) . The top three sectors that lost jobs in January in Illinois were: o Professional & business services: -3,100 (-0.33%) o Leisure & hospitality: -3,500 (-0.59%) o Government: -4,000 (-0.48%) . For Illinois, three sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 355,000 jobs, Construction is down 13,200 jobs and Information has 33,100 fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector June 1990 – January 2017 Illinois RMW Nation vs. Rate Rate Number of vs. RMW Nation Jobs Rate % % % Construction - - -13,200 -5.73 19.55 25.84 Manufacturing - - -355,000 -38.49 -23.48 -30.58 Trade, transportation & utilities - - 64,200 5.59 9.09 20.60 (TTU) Information - - -33,100 -25.40 -19.93 3.33 Financial activities - - 16,300 4.37 20.58 27.48 Professional & business services - - 370,700 64.81 79.26 89.85 Education & health - - 390,500 73.80 76.89 112.38 Leisure & hospitality + - 209,500 54.57 40.58 69.73 Other Services - - 43,200 21.01 24.52 35.35 Government - - 72,300 9.57 11.27 22.95

Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – January 2017

Job Changes Job Changes Forecasted Job Recovery Forecasted in Recession in Jan 2010- Changes Jan Rate Recovery Rate Period* Jan 2017 2010-Jan 2018

Construction -63,800 13,300 20.85% 12,400 19.44% Manufacturing -114,600 12,500 10.91% -5,100 -4.45%

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 6 Trade, transportation & -97,700 91,900 94.06% 91,300 93.45% utilities (TTU) Information -11,300 -7,200 -63.72% -10,000 -88.50% Financial activities -32,600 16,000 49.08% 31,300 96.01% Professional & business -92,300 169,300 183.42% 176,400 191.12% services Education & health 33,800 99,100 - 112,200 - Leisure & hospitality -22,300 81,500 365.47% 88,000 394.62% Other services -5,900 -7,200 -122.03% -8,400 -142.37% Government 6,000 -29,100 - -29,800 - *Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 7 . During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced employment declines. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession. . Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services, and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 20.85%, 10.91%, 94.06%, 49.08%, 183.42% and 365.47% respectively from Recovery the jobs lost during the recession. by Sector . By January 2017, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. . However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Services are still negative, namely -63.72 % and -122.03%. . The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for Financial Activities, Professional & business services, and Leisure & hospitality.

Construction Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 % Number of Change Jobs

Illinois 3.23 6,800

RMW 2.36 19,000

Nation 0.59 40,000

Manufacturing Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 % Number 110.00 Change of Jobs

100.00 Illinois -0.46 -2,600

80.00 RMW 0.15 4,100

National RMW IL

Nation 0.09 11,000 50.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 % Number Change of Jobs Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 8 Illinois 0.22 2,700

RMW 0.09 3,500

Nation 0.13 35,000

Information Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 140.00 % Number Change of Jobs

130.00

120.00 Illinois -0.82 -800

110.00

100.00 RMW -0.11 -300

80.00 National RMW IL Nation -0.11 -3,000

70.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Financial activities Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 130.00 % Number of Change Jobs

125.00

120.00 Illinois 0.99 3,800

115.00

110.00 RMW 0.89 9,700

105.00

100.00

National RMW IL Nation 0.38 32,000

95.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Professional & business services Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 9 190.00 % Number of Change Jobs 180.00

170.00

160.00 Illinois -0.33 -3,100

150.00

140.00

130.00 RMW 0.23 5,800 120.00

110.00

100.00 National RMW IL Nation 0.23 46,000 90.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Education & health Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 220.00 % Number of Change Jobs

200.00

Illinois 0.16 1,500 180.00

160.00 RMW -0.24 -7,700

140.00

120.00

100.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Leisure & hospitality Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017

170.00 % Number of Change Jobs

160.00

150.00 Illinois -0.59 -3,500

140.00

130.00 RMW -0.07 -1,400 120.00

110.00

100.00 National RMW IL Nation 0.15 24,000

90.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 10 Other Services Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 135.00 % Number of Change Jobs 130.00

125.00 Illinois 0.24 600

120.00

115.00 RMW -0.23 -1,900 110.00

105.00

100.00 National RMW IL Nation 0.21 12,000

95.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Government Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 % Number of 130.00 Change Jobs

125.00 Illinois -0.48 -400

120.00

115.00 RMW -0.18 -5,400

110.00

105.00

100.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.

Illinois Jobs Index release 2/29/2017 www.real.illinois.edu page 11