Trends and Melbourne - Data Sources and References - September 2014

TRENDS AND MELBOURNE Data sources and references September 2014

s Acknowledgements

This research report was prepared by Nick Casey, Melbourne City Research and Melissah Morrison, Health Projects

s PEOPLE

Between 2008 and 2013 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Regional Population the Melbourne Local Growth, Australia, 2013 (cat. 3218.0) Government Area’s http://www.abs.gov.au/ residential population increased by almost 30% (around 26,500 people) to an estimated 116,447 people. In the last year (2012-13) our population grew 10% or 11,000 people, making Melbourne City the largest and fastest growing municipality in Victoria. Australian and Victorian Department of Planning and Community Development, households will get Victoria in Future 2012, State Government of Victoria smaller, and populations http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/. will continue to grow and age. In the coming years, our .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population municipality’s population Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne is expected to grow fast http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. at an average annual rate of 5.8% reaching a forecast population of over 133,000 in 2016. This municipality’s Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats population is not ageing Melbourne Local Government Area and is not expected to http://www.abs.gov.au/census age. .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. Since 2001, the median Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats age in Melbourne Melbourne Local Government Area municipality remained 28 http://www.abs.gov.au/census. years. Average household sizes Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats in Australia have Melbourne Local Government Area remained the same (2.6 http://www.abs.gov.au/census. people per household) over the past 10 years. In contrast, this Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats

s municipality’s average Melbourne Local Government Area household size increased http://www.abs.gov.au/census. to 2 persons per household. Australia is experiencing .id Consulting, 2012, Move over baby-boomers – it’s not all a reversal in fertility rate about you! September 2012 presentation trends with decreases http://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/11043 becoming minor 01295188-298/Move+over+babyboomers+QLD+2012.pdf increases (more babies). Young people and young Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local adults (12 to 35 years of Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 age) comprise the http://www.abs.gov.au/census largest proportion of .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population residential population at Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne over 60% and this is http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. forecast to maintain the same proportion in 2016. The municipality is City Research Branch, 2008, City of Melbourne Census becoming more Multicultural Profile, dataset, City of Melbourne multicultural since 2006, when 48.5% of the population was born overseas (53.5% by 2011) and almost 39% spoke a language other than English (43% by 2011). The municipality is more Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local multicultural than the Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 rest of Australia. In the And rest of Australia, 26% of Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Australia Basic the population was born Community Profile 2011 overseas and 19% speak a language other than http://www.abs.gov.au/census. English at home. In Melbourne municipality, more residents were born overseas than in Australia. Victoria gained more Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) - Australian people from interstate Demographic Statistics Sep 2013 MEDIA RELEASE 27 migration than any other March 2014 (Cat no. 3101.0), on-line, (accessed 1 April state or territory during 2014) the year ending 30 http://www.abs.gov.au/ September 2013. This is the highest net interstate migration gain for the

s state in over 30 years and Victoria has now overtaken Queensland and Western Australia in net interstate migration. The changing the Laura Chalmers, 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics data interstate migration shows Victoria has overtaken Queensland as most trend is being driven by attractive place for Australians to move to, The Australian, employment options 27 March 2014 , on-line, (accessed 1 April 2014) rather than the http://www.theaustralian.com.au/ traditional driver which is lifestyle. Australians will still migrate to Queensland and Western Australia for lifestyle reasons, however, there is a perception that Melbourne has more job opportunities. Our total resident .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population population is still Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne growing. The http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. implications are that the cohort of older persons will remain around the same size proportionally, at around 10% of the total population by 2016, but their actual numbers are expected to increase from over 9,000 in 2011 to more than 11,500 in 2016. City of Melbourne will have to consider how to balance its approach to this group with other demographic groups in the municipality. Similarly, while the number of children of primary and secondary school ages will increase HOUSING International research Cox and Pavletich, 2012, 8th Annual Demographia suggests metropolitan International Housing Affordability Survey: Melbourne house prices 2012,Performance Urban Planning increased faster than www.demographia.com/. income levels. Australian

s cities are among the most unaffordable housing markets in the world.

Between 2014 and 2016 City Research Branch, 2013, Development Activity Monitor new supply is projected to November 2013, City of Melbourne. average 6600 dwellings per year, tripling the ten year average of 2100 dwellings per year. Over the period 2012— Property Council of Australia, 2012, Making the Numbers 14 Melbourne Stack Up – A Study into Major Residential Urban Renewal in municipality will account Melbourne, Melbourne for around 35% of overall residential Urban renewal development activity in Greater Melbourne. Over 2012-14, Melbourne municipality will be the largest growing residential urban renewal area in Greater Melbourne. More than 10% of new Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Building Approvals, homes approved in Australia (cat. no. 8731.0). Victoria in the past year (2010/11) will be built in the City of Melbourne. The proportion of flats Indicator from: and apartments City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring increased from 78% in Report (Draft) City of Melbourne 2002 to 83% of all housing in 2010. The proportion of renters Indicator from: and mortgagees paying City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring less than 30% of their Report (Draft) City of Melbourne income on housing in this municipality declined between 2001 and 2011, from almost 61% to about 53.5%. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and 6.5% of home Housing 2006 purchasers and 29.5% of http://www.abs.gov.au/census renters experience housing stress paying 30% or more of their

s household income on rent or mortgages. 7% of private occupied Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local dwellings in the Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 municipality are social http://www.abs.gov.au/census. housing. City of Melbourne’s Indicator from: StreetCount shows a City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring slight decline in numbers Report (Draft) City of Melbourne of people sleeping rough from 112 in 2008 to 101 in 2012. In November 2013 there City of Melbourne 2013, Development Activity Monitor were 51 developments November 2013, Melbourne under construction, expected to yield around 11,732 residential dwellings by the end of 2016. Eighty-five proposed developments with a total of 15,515 dwellings have town planning approval and could be expected to begin construction within two years. A further 63 proposed developments yielding 17,580 dwellings could be expected to begin construction within three to five years (subject to town planning approval).

Between 2014 and 2016 new supply is projected to average 6600 dwellings per year, tripling the ten year average of 2100 dwellings per year. Melbourne is the only Graham Wolfe, 2011, The Outlook for Residential Building, municipality in Australia Housing Industry Association, September 2011. that is forecast by the Housing Industry Association to supply sufficient housing to meet forecast demand

s from residents by 2020. Approximately 50% of City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity new dwellings have one in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne bedroom and dwelling size is shrinking with 40% of new dwellings having less than 50m2 of floor space. Around 42% of new dwelling construction is in higher density of 20 levels or more above ground. Finally, more than 90% of new dwellings are apartments. Dwellings with a City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity valuation less than in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne $300,000 has dropped from 43% in 2006 to 21% in 2012 State Government City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity housing in the in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne municipality has decreased by 4% in the past six years. Almost 70% of dwellings in the municipality are not held by owner occupiers, likely because dwelling growth is increasingly driven by overseas investors purchasing in the Australian market. Some analysts and social City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity researchers consider in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne risks in the Melbourne housing market, including: •A glut in the municipality’s market that could extend to the end of the decade. •Financial losses on sale of dwellings. RP Data’s Pain and Gain report, showed 15.5% of all sales in Melbourne municipality in the final

s three months of 2013 were for below the initial purchase price, compared to 6% in metro Melbourne. The average loss was $33,000. •Possible loss of liveability and the creative class vision for the centre of the city as “a place of work, recreation and residence in almost equal measure”. The Victorian Department Of Human Services, 2012, Housing Framework Government is reviewing – Social Housing Options, April 2012 Stat Government of the future of social Victoria housing in Victoria, http://www.dhs.vic.gov.au. which could include new social housing funding and development models and changes to rent levels and terms of social housing leases. The intent is to make social housing financially sustainable but could result in higher rents, less security of tenure and low income households being forced to leave the inner city or live in a cycle of homelessness, poverty and transitional housing. In the case of women Spinney and Brady, 2011, Homelessness prevention for and children there are women and children who have experienced domestic and clear links between family violence: innovations in policy and practice, homelessness and family Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, violence. Swinburne–Monash Research Centre http://www.ahuri.edu.au/publications/download/50602_pp ENVIRONMENT Australians are Australian Conservation Foundation, 2010, Consumption estimated to have the Atlas, Australian Conservation Foundation fourth highest ecological http://202.60.88.196/consumptionatlas/. footprint in the world.

s Residential greenhouse Indicators from: emissions in Melbourne Sustainability Branch, 2014, CARBON DISCLOSURE municipality were PROJECT - Municipal Inventory (Summary), City of estimated at 6.07 tonnes Melbourne CO2-e per capita in 2012-13. Non-resident emissions declined were estimated at 14.24 tonnes CO2-e per worker, also in 2012- 13. Total residential electricity consumption increased from an estimated 223.6 million kWh in 2011-12 to 249.8 million kWh in 2012-13. Non-resident electricity consumption also increased from in 3.2b kWh in 2011-12 to 3.8b kWh in 2012-13. Data for greenhouse Indicators from: emissions show total Sustainability Branch, 2014, CARBON DISCLOSURE emissions in the PROJECT - Municipal Inventory (Summary), City of municipality of 6,442,240 Melbourne tCO2e in 2012–13 which includes emissions from electricity, gas, landfill waste, private vehicles and public transport. This is estimated as 6.07 tCO2e per resident and 14.24 tCO2e per worker. Daily water consumption Indicator from: per resident in the area City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, declined on average by City of Melbourne 4.2% per annum from 141 litres in 2008-09 to 119 litres in 2012-13 Workers’ daily water Indicator from: consumption declined by City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, an average of City of Melbourne approximately 1.4% per annum from 108 litres in 2008-9 to 102 litres in 2012-13. Garbage collected per Indicator from:

s household per year in the municipality City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, increased 2% per annum City of Melbourne between 2006 and 2012. Recycling per household Indicator from: per year in the area City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, increased 3% per annum City of Melbourne from 2006 to 2012. In 2012, 32% of this Indicator from: municipality’s residents City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, and 29% of businesses City of Melbourne have done something (saving water or installing more efficient air conditioning) to prepare for extreme weather events. Climate change may Climate Institute, 2011, A Climate of Suffering: The Real have increasing public Cost of Living with Inaction on Climate Change, Climate health impacts such … Institute mental health (depression and suicide). GENERAL ICLEI Local Governments following the Rio + 20 summit on the role of cities in dealing with global environmental issues: http://local2012.iclei.org/fileadmin/files/ICLEI_at_Rio_20.pdf . LIFESTYLES The way people are World Federation for Mental Health living their lives is Mental Health And Chronic Physical Illnesses, The Need For changing. People are Continued And Integrated Care, 2010 working more, http://www.wfmh.org/2010DOCS/WMHDAY2010.pdf. connecting with others via social media, sitting for long hours in their car or at their desks and eating more fast foods. These unhealthy behaviours are resulting in physical and mental health impacts with rising rates of obesity and chronic illnesses such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, cancer and mental health issues such as anxiety and

s depression. In addition, the majority United Nations, 2007 Revision of World Urbanization of the world’s population Prospects is living in urban environments. With rapid development and population growth, inner city living and lifestyles are changing and this is likely to have significant health and wellbeing impacts. 94.5% of residents do Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health not eat enough Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. vegetables, 46% do not http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm eat enough fruit, similar to state averages. 34% male residents and Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health 14% of female residents Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. are overweight, similar http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm to state averages. Male residents have Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health significantly higher rates Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. of cancer (11%), and http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm women have significantly higher rates of heart disease (8.6%) than the state average (6.1% and 5.2% respectively). Male residents consume Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health more alcohol at risky Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. levels (41%) than the http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm state average (33.3%). The area has the Turning Point (2010). Trends in Alcohol and Drug Related proportion of alcohol and Ambulance Attendances in Melbourne 2009-10. drug-related ambulance attendances in Metro Melbourne. Melbourne municipality Victorian Notifiable Infectious Diseases Surveillance database, has the highest rates of Department of Health (2010) chlamydia notifications http://www.health.vic.gov.au/ideas/surveillance in Victoria. Crime in the municipality Victoria Police, 2014,Crime Statistics: Crime Statistics By Local increased 14% from Government Area (LGA) 2011/12 and 2012/13 (online), accessed 2010 to 2013 (from 13 February 2014, http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp? 26,712 to 30,537 Document_ID=782 recorded offences per 1000). There has been an Victoria Police, 2014,Crime Statistics: Family Incident Reports

s increase in the number (online), accessed 13 February 2014, of family violence http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=782 incidences reported to Victoria Police 84.1% of residents Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health mostly sit or stand at Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. work all day, significantly http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm more than the state average (64.2%). 12.5% of residents report Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health high to very high levels Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. of anxiety and http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm depression and 13% have sought professional help for a mental health problem, higher than the state average of 11.4%. The number of noise City of Melbourne, 2014, Municipal Public Health and complaints received by Wellbeing Evaluation, Melbourne. City of Melbourne increased annually from 10.5 per 1000 in 2008 to 13.1 per 1000 in 2012. The average self- Indicator: reported level of City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, wellbeing reported by Melbourne residents of the municipality was 75.4 in 2012 and 76.5 in 2013. In 2012 more than 57% Indicator: of people living in City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne municipality Melbourne reported their health was either 'excellent' or 'very good'and in 2013, around 65% of people living in the municipality reported their health was either 'excellent' or 'very good'. Residents reported Indicator: satisfaction with feeling City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, a part of the community Melbourne in the municipality was 67.5 in 2012 and 68.2 in 2013. In 2012 almost 43% of Indicator: residents in Melbourne City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, municipality reported Melbourne

s that they helped out as a volunteer and by 2013 it was over 49%. The major safety City of Melbourne, Perceptions of Safety Survey 2009 concerns over the next five years included public drunkenness (43%), assault/physical violence (25.6%), traffic flow (17.4%), drug use (15.7%) and managing growth/increased population (13.8%). SOCIAL INEQUALITIES The ACOSS Poverty in Australian Council of Social Service, 2012, Poverty in Australia report found Australian 2012, Sydney, on-line, (accessed 19 March nearly 2,265,000 people 2013), http://www.acoss.org.au/policy/child_poverty/ in 2010 (12.8% of all people) were living below the poverty line and 600,000 or 17.3% of them were children. The measure of poverty was 50% of median income in Australia. Poverty among single parent families has increased by 15% since 2001. Melbourne has Victoria’s Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio- socially and economically Economic Indexes for Areas, Melbourne Local Government most advantaged area Area, 2006. and some of Victoria’s http://www.abs.gov.au/ most disadvantaged areas on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA). People who reside in Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio- public housing in areas Economic Indexes for Areas, Melbourne Local Government of Carlton, North Area, 2006. Melbourne and http://www.abs.gov.au/ Kensington are identified as the most disadvantaged in the municipality. More than a third of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and population (36%) are low Housing 2011 income earners, earning http://www.abs.gov.au/census less than $399 per week.

s In 2012 around 4.5% of Indicator from: adults in the municipality City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, reported they had run City of Melbourne out of food in the past 12 months and could not afford to buy more and in 2013 less than 3% had run out of food and been unable to afford more. 22% of residents in this Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health municipality report they Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. don’t always have the http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm quality or variety of food they want because some foods are too expensive. Low income families with Health Services Branch, 2010, Food Security Profile 2012, either two or one parents City of Melbourne would need to spend 43 to 46% of their incomes respectively, to maintain a healthy diet, which is above the recommended 30% of income for food. 40% of Australians Nathan R, 2012, The Ipsos Social Research Institute Issues believed that Monitor, May to July 2012, Ipsos Australia 'Inflation/Cost of Living' http://ipsos.com.au/ was one of the top three issues facing the nation; making it the number one issue for June quarter 2012. the proportion of Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Melbourne Local Housing 2011, Basic Community Profile, Melbourne Local Government Area’s Government Area households earning more and than $2,500 per week is Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and higher compared to Housing 2011, Basic Community Profile, Greater Melbourne Greater Melbourne and Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006, Basic Community Profile, Melbourne Local Government Area http://www.abs.gov.au/census the Melbourne Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio- municipality is ranked Economic Indexes for Areas, Melbourne Local Government 13th most socio- Area, 2006. economic advantaged http://www.abs.gov.au/ municipality in metropolitan Melbourne

s The proportion of Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Census Melbourne residents with a Local Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 profound or severe http://www.abs.gov.au/census. disability was 1.6% in 2006 and 2% of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012,, 2901.0 - Census municipality’s population Dictionary, 2011 in 2011. More than 1,800 residents (up by 600 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/2901.0C people since 2006) in hapter702011 this municipality live with a profound or severe disability and are considered as needing help or assistance areas of self-care, mobility and communication, because of a disability, long term health condition lasting six months or more or old age. On a daily basis, there are likely to be even more people with disabilities in the municipality and all their needs must be considered. 41% households have no Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Census Melbourne car. 39.9% say this is Local Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 due to rising petrol http://www.abs.gov.au/census. prices. While the Melbourne Urban Health Profile 2012 municipality is ranked 13th most socioeconomic advantaged municipality in metro Melbourne, there are pockets of socioeconomic disadvantage in North Melbourne, Carlton and Kensington. These areas are primarily public housing estate areas and they have high proportions of vulnerable population groups including: •Low income earners (between $1 and $399 per week)

s •Unemployed •Families with children under 0 to 12 years, particularly single parent households •People with low English proficiency •Students •Older adults, particularly those who have a disability, living alone in public housing •People who are severely or profoundly disabled who need assistance with core activities. Marginalised community City of Melbourne, 2013, Somali Families in Melbourne, a groups presentation to Family Services Staff, Melbourne Several important indicators of disadvantage suggest the population from Horn of Afica, in particular the Somali community, may be at risk of marginalisation". Overall, compared to the rest of the municipality’s population, they are significantly more likely to: 1. live in single parent families 2. live in public housing 3. achieve poorer educational outcomes 4. experience poorer employment outcomes; and 5. earn lower incomes. Outcomes for the Horn of Africa community are not significantly improving over time. Also, analysis of census data showed that in 2011 more than 66% of Somali’s were

s living at the same address where they lived five years ago, compared to less than 30% of the rest of the population, which suggests they’re remaining in public housing in this municipality. The Horn of Africa population numbers around 1800 people including approximately 500 children and youths. Medium efforts directed at improving some of the above mentioned outcomes for the Horn of Africa community may have a significant impact of inequality and overall wellbeing of the municipality’s whole community There is evidence people Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Social Trends 1999 – of lower socio-economic Health Status: Health and Socioeconomic Disadvantage of Area status have worse health than those in more advantaged areas. Evidence shows they rate their health more negatively, have higher rates of some chronic illnesses, lead less healthy lifestyles and are less likely to get health checks. In addition, a lack of economic resources limits people’s ability to access basic essentials such as food, housing, transport and health care. It can also limit their ability to participate in their community leading to higher levels of anxiety, social isolation and marginalisation.

s While Melbourne Brotherhood of St. Laurence, 2014, Australian Youth municipality has an Unemployment 2014: Snapshot, Melbourne, Online, [accessed overall unemployment 24 March, 2014] rate of 5%, youth http://www.bsl.org.au/pdfs/MyChanceOurFuture_AppendixA_map unemployment in the s_Feb2014.pdf area is higher. Analysis by the Brotherhood of St Laurence shows the Melbourne area has a youth unemployment rate of over 13%. Consequences of unemployment and a lack of job opportunities for young people can include: relatively lower quality of life and standards of living; lack of skills; and potential welfare dependency.

ECONOMY Productivity growth in Dolman and Gruen, 2012, Productivity and Structural Australia appears to Change, 41st Australian Conference of Economists, 8 - 12 July 2012, Macroeconomic Group have slowed. http://www.treasury.gov.au. Post Global Financial Bill Evans, 2012, Consumer Sentiment fails to get any Crisis conditions, traction, 15 August 2012, Westpac, including the European http://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/economics- debt crisis are changing research/er20120815BullConsumerSentiment.pdf. the way people spend. The Australian dollar is Reserve Bank of Australia, Exchange Rates (online) still relatively strong. http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/exchange- rates.html (19 Sep 2012). Australian consumer Bill Evans, 2012, Consumer Sentiment fails to get any confidence has been traction, 15 August 2012, Westpac, below its long run http://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/economics- average for six months. research/er20120815BullConsumerSentiment.pdf. Concerns developing Matthew Hassan, 2012, Economic Outlook August 2012, nations demand for Westpac. resources and the mining boom may be unsustainable.

We also have increased Tourism Australia, 2012, International Visitors Survey & International visitor National Visitors Survey, 2012.

s arrivals to Australia this year which is positive for Australia’s tourism sector. Businesses and Indicator from: employment in the City Research Branch, 2014, Future Melbourne Monitoring, municipality each grew City of Melbourne 4% per annum 2002 to 2010. There was a 13% Indicator from: increase in retail City Research Branch, 20122014, Future Melbourne establishments from Monitoring , Report (Draft) City of Melbourne 2006 to 2012 International visitors to Tourism Australia, 2013, International Visitors Survey & the area grew 7% per National Visitors Survey, 2013. annum between 2008-09 and 2012-13 to 1.24 million Visitors to Melbourne Tourism Australia, 2013, International Visitors Survey & Metropolitan spent National Visitors Survey, 2013. approximately $10.7b in 2011. Median weekly Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local household income in this Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 municipality increased http://www.abs.gov.au/census. from $1,070 in 2006 to $1,352 in 2011.

Unemployment among City of Melbourne, 2013, Economic Profile, Melbourne residents is (online), [Accessed 13 February, 2014] comparatively low but http://melbourne.geografia.com.au/ trending up. In the last decade .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, theBetween 2007 and City of Melbourne 2012, the municipality’s http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. Gross Regional Local Product (the size of the municipality’s economy) grew 35% to $56.886.7b in 2011. The annual product of a .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, worker is $167,660 in City of Melbourne 2012. http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. Business numbers and City Research Branch, 2012, Employment Forecasts 2011, the workforce in the area City of Melbourne grew by 6.5% and 8.4%

s respectively between 2008 and 2012 and the workforce is forecast to continue to grow, but more slowly another 2% per annum to 510,000 workers by 2016. The municipality’s City of Melbourne, 2014, Employment Forecasting 2012 – workforce is forecast to 2031, Melbourne continue to grow, but more slowly, by 2% per annum to 510,000 workers in 2016. Between 1996 and 2011, employment in Greater Melbourne increased by around 560,000 jobs and our municipality contributed almost 30% of that growth (160,000 jobs). In 20 years, Greater Melbourne will add over 900,000 jobs, of which one quarter will be within Melbourne Local Government Area. In 2012 the Car .id Consulting, 2010, City of Melbourne Economic Profile, Manufacturing industry City of Melbourne employed around 2000 http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. people which only 0.5 per cent of employment in the municipality. The economic contribution of the ‘Transport Equipment Manufacturing’ sector was $389 million for 2012 and the car manufacturing industry comprises around 70% of this sector. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the Car Manufacturing industry has a value of between $250 to $300 million to the City of Melbourne economy, or to 0.3%. Despite concerns about .id Consulting, 2010, City of Melbourne Economic Profile,

s productivity decline, City of Melbourne nationally, the value of http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au. worker productivity in the municipality has increased 27% since 1999. Although productivity has slowed since 2006 and was negative in 2009 -10, it increased again in 2011 The biggest productivity Phil Ruthven Where’s the Productivity Problem? August and wage pressures 2012, IBISWorld have been identified in http://www.ibisworld.com.au mining and utilities City Research Branch, Census of Land Use and industries, nationally, but Employment 2010, City of Melbourne these comprise only 2.5% of the local workforce. Public transport Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City facilitates agglomeration of Melbourne benefits in cities. Ability to connect with other businesses by walking or using efficient public transport contributes to central Melbourne’s high Effective Job Density (EJD). Congestion also has a Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City significant impact on the of Melbourne economy with a cost to the city of $3 billion a year. Reducing congestion by prioritizing more space efficient transport has been identified as a way to improve productivity. Over the last 5 years the Business and International Branch, 2012, Six Year Retail retail sector has Report Card 2012, City of Melbourne. performed well, and turnover is expected to grow. Online retail is expected BIS Shrapnel Business Research and Forecasting, 2012, Is to give consumers more this the end of the golden age for retailing? BIS Shrapnel, power and take more (online) 11 July 2012 market share from http://www.bis.com.au. ‘traditional’ retailing.

s This could impact on retailer profit margins and returns to retail property, prompting some investors to consider investing in other sections of the property market. While international Tourism Australia, International Visitors Survey & National visitor numbers Visitors Survey, 2012. increased, domestic visitor numbers fell below 2008-09 levels. Nationally, the mining BIS Shrapnel Business Research and Forecasting, 2014, investment boom is Economy in transition through mid-decade …as and when expected to peter out the mining investment boom peters out. BIS Shrapnel, after peaking in 2014, (online) 25 February 2014 though it will still http://www.bis.com.au. underpin activity for the next few years. Meanwhile broadening investment beyond mining may was expected increasingly to drive growth, softening the impact on the economy. Industries likely to benefit from the growth include finance, business services and health services –large employers in the municipality. The high dollar may have adversely impacted Australia’s transition back from mining and public investment-led growth last decade to balanced growth. A structural shift back towards broad based growth means investment and re- deploying resources to the non-mining sector. Unfortunately, business investment outside the

s resources sector has remained weak since the GFC. Recovery is expected to be two years away. Recovery, once it comes through will significantly boost growth Industries such as finance, business services and health services–large which have a large presence in the municipality. Opportunities for future Deloitte Access Economics, 2014, Positioning for growth [Section] prosperity? Catching the next wave, online, [accessed 24 March, 2014] http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_AU/au/news- research/luckycountry/prosperity-next-wave/index.htm KNOWLEDGE While the public research Australian Research Council Commonwealth Scientific and sector, nationally, Industrial Research Organisation and National Health and experienced poorer Medical Research Council, 2011, The National Survey of financial returns than Research Commercialisation, 2008-09, Department of before the Global Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Financial Crisis, it has Education managed increased http://www.innovation.gov.au. invention disclosures and patent filing and interest in future commercialisation. 88% of Melbourne Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local municipality’s Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 households have internet http://www.abs.gov.au/census. access and 90% of them use broadband, higher than the Australian average at 77% of households. Patents granted to Intellectual Property Australia, 2014, Grants for Innovation companies or and Standard Patents, Melbourne Local Government Area, corporation in Melbourne 2010-13, unpublished data municipality increased from 90 per 100,000 residents in 2010 to 103 per 100,000 residents in 2013. 42.5% of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local

s municipality’s population Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011 is attending an http://www.abs.gov.au/census. educational institution, higher than the Australian average at 30%. In 2011, household Phil Ruthven, 2012, Australia’s Changing Demographics & spending in Australia on Lifestyles Implications for, and responses by, businesses, new age services passed CEDA Conference 11 May 2012. that on retail goods for the first time in history. On any one day in City Research Branch, 2014, City of Melbourne Student Melbourne Local Profile (Draft), City of Melbourne Government Area there are more than 30,000 international students studying at a variety of educational institutions with approximately 50 per cent residing in the municipality. Postgraduate enrolments Indicator from: in higher education in City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Metro Melbourne grew Report (Draft), City of Melbourne 6% per annum from 2007 to reach 60,850 in 2009. From 2009 to 2011 Indicator from: approximately 50% of City Research Branch, Future Melbourne Monitoring , City people employed in the of Melbourne municipality work in highly skilled occupations. Metro Melbourne is home Enterprise Melbourne (on-line) Biotechnology sector to 50% of the top 20 overview (25 September 2012), City of Melbourne biotech companies listed htp://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/enterprisemelbourne/indu on the Australian Stock stries/ biotechnology/Pages/SectorOverview.aspx Exchange. Researcher’s employed Indicator from: at universities in Metro City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Melbourne grew 3% per Report (Draft), City of Melbourne annum in five years, to 20,000 in 2010. The anticipated ASEAN, Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the establishment of an Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015, (2009) ASEAN Economic ASEAN Secretariat (20 September 2012) Community (AEC) by http://www.aseansec.org/19260.htm.

s 2015. Research and Hatfield, et al (2010) Journal of Product Innovation development spending is Management Vol. 27, Longitudinal study of the impacts of strongly positively R&D, patents and product innovations on firm related to patent grants, performance, pg 725-740, Product Development and meaning that research Management Association efforts enable individuals http://www.management.pamplin.vt.edu/directory/Articles/ and firms to generate Hatfield1.pdf creative outputs. INFRASTRUCTURE The use of sustainable Indicator from: transport modes to get City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring to and around the Report (Draft), City of Melbourne and municipality increased City Research Branch, City of Melbourne City User from 58% in 2007 to Estimates and Forecasts, City of Melbourne, 2010. 62% in 2009 but are forecast to account for 80 per cent of trips in Department of Transport, Victorian Integrated Survey of 2030 (about 2,671,376 Travel and Activity http://www.transport.vic.gov.au/. trips). Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City of Melbourne 41% of households do City Research Branch, Census 2001-06 Key Changes, City not own a car. of Melbourne 31.9% walk or cycle for Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health transport. Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria. http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/survey/vphs.htm The municipality’s daily Indicator from: population including City Research Branch, 2013, City of Melbourne Daily workers and visitors is Population Estimates and Forecasts, Melbourne. over 887,000 people, forecast to reach almost 930,000 by 2016 and one million by 2020. 66% of trips within the Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City municipality are made by of Melbourne walking. There are an estimated Indicator from: 3,872 total delivery City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring vehicles per day entering Report (Draft), City of Melbourne City the CBD. Over 90% of freight Department of Planning and Community Development, through the Port of Melbourne's freight flow and distribution Melbourne is transported http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/31 by road. 199/ Melbournes_freight_flow_and_distribution.pdf

s The carriage of goods Strategic Planning Branch, 2012, Transport Strategy, City through the Port of of Melbourne Melbourne is expected to quadruple to eight million TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) per annum by 2035. Over half of all workers, Indicator from: students and visitors City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring access the internet while Report (Draft), City of MelbourneCity they’re in Central Melbourne. A national infrastructure NBNCo, 2012, NBNCo Rollout map, (25 September, 2012) project, the National http://www.nbnco.com.au/rollout/rollout-map.html. Broadband Network (NBN), is under construction which will increase the accessibility of broadband internet and provide higher internet speeds. Service is available in Docklands and the north of Parkville. It is under construction in parts of Southbank and construction, which will continue to involve City of Melbourne, is due to start in Carlton in the next year. Increases in the numbers Department of Planning and Community Development, of vehicles used for Melbourne's freight flow and distribution freight transport over the http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au. next 15 years are expected. The increased distances travelled by freight vehicles are expected to be dispersed across Melbourne, potentially impacting the road network. CITY GOVERNANCE Rising community Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG expectations/challenges/i Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria ssues. Fewer dollars: Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG

s State/Federal deficits Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria plus zero dollar rate rise from City of Melbourne in 2012/13. Citizens want more Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG control and influence as Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria social media platforms empower them to have more of a voice. Digital government will Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG change the business Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria model. There is a need to Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG improve performance Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria reporting. A large percentage of Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG the local government Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria workforce will retire in the next 10 years, taking knowledge. City of Melbourne City of Melbourne Website, (2014), Key advisory currently has almost 20 committees, bodies and boards, (13 March 2014) advisory boards. http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/ City of Melbourne City of Melbourne Website, (2014), Contact resident currently has 14 groups, (13 March 2014) residents groups. http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/ 12 million Australian’s Cowling. D, 2013, Social Media Statistics Australia – August visited Facebook in 2013, (on-line) Social Media News.com (13 March 2014) August 2013. http://www.socialmedianews.com.au/social-media- 9 million Australians log statistics-australia-august-2013/. on to Facebook every day, or almost 39% of the total Australian population. Globally, there are Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012 Future of LG changes in the way Summit, Municipal Association of Victoria people measure progress as a society. 41% of residents of the Department of Planning & Community Development, 2008, municipality feel they Indicators of community Strength, Department of Planning have a say on important & Community Development cited on Community Indicators issues. Victoria. In 2012, over 56% and in Indicator from: 2013 almost 62% of City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Social residents surveyed in Survey 2013.

s Melbourne Local Government Area had participated in citizen engagement activities in the previous 12 months. The Valuer General has Municipal Association of Victoria, 2012, Council identified performance Sustainability. How Are We Performing?. Municipal reporting in Local Association of Victoria Government has limited relevance for ratepayers, lacks information about quality of Council services, lacks information on outcomes being achieved, how Council strategic objectives are being achieved, focussed on inputs and operating activities, and shortcomings impair accountability for performance. The Victorian Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission, 2010, Government has Local Government for a Better Victoria: An Inquiry into released the final report, Streamlining Local Government Regulation, final report, and the Government's August. http://www.vcec.vic.gov.au. response to the Inquiry into Streamlining Local Government Regulation.