Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation Toward Grand Challenges

Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations SEVILLE, 12-13 MAY 2011

I DENTIFYING THE D IRECTION AND P ROMOTING F ACTORS OF I NNOVATION TOWARD G RAND C HALLENGE S

Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada National Institute of Science and Technology Policy 3-2-2, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013 Japan [email protected] [email protected]

Summary The world faces many complex problems like climate change and economic imbalance, and each country has also country-specific problems like rapid aging of the population in Japan. Technological and social innovations are expected to cope with these difficulties and achieve a desirable future. Foresight in Japan has changed its objectives and roles against the above-mentioned background. Its main role was to identify key technologies or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science, technology and society. But today it aims to discuss innovations that have potential to change our society. Strong emphasis is put on how key technologies or emerging technologies should be integrated and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals or tackle social issues. FTA is expected to give a framework for integrated knowledge. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy in Japan conducted the ninth foresight exercise in 2008-2010. The basic principle is to discuss science, technology and societal environment that have the potential to change our society toward a desirable future. The exercise started with the discussion on social objectives and their relation to science and technology, considering changes on a global scale. Based on the discussion, four grand challenges were set as goals of science, technology and innovation policy. Studies by delphi, scenario writing and workshops techniques were carried out to articulate a framework for successful innovation. The procedure is characterized from two aspects: interdisciplinary or diversified discussion and mission-oriented approach. Main points are; Delphi panels by cross-disciplinary theme, not technological discipline; active participation of specialists in social science and humanities; discussion by a variety of participants including younger generation and local residents; and focused discussion rather than comprehensive approach. Results show that “green innovation” and “life innovation” can be key issues for grand challenges, which should be promoted with the improvement of base technologies and infrastructures. ICT, indispensable technology for achieving social goals, is required to be converged with relevant technologies. System thinking, which includes not only technical systems but also social systems and provision of services, is essential for embedding technologies in real society. The other accompanying factor is management of technology-related issues, i.e. knowledge base, business, risk, globalization, human resources, and so on. These indicate that the closer the

THEME: 1 (INNOVATION AND GRAND CHALLENGES)

- 1 - Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations SEVILLE, 12-13 MAY 2011 relation among science, technology and society will be in the future, the more interdisciplinary involvements will be expected.

1 Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years. The world faces a number of complex problems like climate change, and each country has also country-specific issues like rapid aging of the population in Japan. Expectations for innovation through scientific and technological development are building up under this situation and not a few countries in the world have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies. In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population. In Japan, since FY1996, science and technology policy has been implemented under the Science and Technology Basic Plans. In the second and third Basic Plans which started in FY2001 and FY2006, strategic prioritization was the basic principle in drawing up related policies except for ones related to basic research and the reformation of the research and development system. In concrete terms, the Basic Plans provided the framework with especially focus on the following eight fields: life science, ICT, environmental science, nanotechnology and materials, energy, manufacturing technology, social infrastructure, and frontiers. In conjunction with this principle, a call for innovation through scientific and technological development was stated clearly in the third Basic Plan. Against the backdrops mentioned above, expectations are growing high here in Japan, calling for the fruits of science and technology to contribute toward solving global and national challenges. In the fourth Basic Plan, which is going to start in FY2011, it seems natural that the focus on a problem-solving approach becomes more apparent: solving grand challenges through the effective application of science and technology. In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out, while the following themes will be central in discussion in the days to come: the fusion of several areas in science and technology, collaboration with the humanities and social science, and the promotion of science and technology viewed as an integral part of social-system reformation. Foresight activities in Japan have also changed their purposes and roles. Their main role was to identify key technologies or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science, technology and society. But today they aim to discuss innovations that have potential to change our society. Strong emphasis is put on how key technologies or emerging technologies should be integrated and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals or tackle social issues. Foresight is expected to give a framework for integrated knowledge.

2 Methodology National Institute of Science and Technology Policy in Japan conducted the ninth foresight exercise in 2008-2010. The basic principle is to discuss science, technology and societal environment that have the potential to change our society toward a desired future.

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The exercise started with the discussion on social goals and their relation to science and technology, considering changes on a global and national scale. Based on this discussion, four grand challenges were set as goals of science, technology and innovation. Investigative studies by delphi, scenario writing and workshop techniques were carried out to articulate a framework for successful innovation. The procedure is characterized from two aspects: interdisciplinary or diversified discussion and mission-oriented approach. Main points are; delphi panels by cross-disciplinary theme, not technological discipline; active participation of specialists in social science and humanities; discussion by a variety of participants including younger generation and local residents; and focused discussion rather than dealing with subjects exhaustively.

Science and Technology Foresight toward Solving Grand Challenges

For sustainable future securely underpinned by Based on the knowledge obtained science and technology, from the follow-up process of the 3rd S&T Basic Plan. Four grand challenges are defined to focus future efforts in science and technology into With what framework and definite directions. paths can we integrate our Central player in the scientific and technological wisdom to solve the grand arena challenges? Sustainable growth through green innovation Global challenge and national challenge Successful model for a healthy and aged society Global challenge and national challenge Secure life Global challenge and national challenge

Global challenge and national challenge Delphi survey To find a solution in grand challenges: Solution •What is the priority research from a “Integration of wisdom” toward solving the challenges Social system strategic point of view? Strategic priority renovation research for each area •In what areas of science and technology, Basic International Scenario writing research collaboratio are integration and collaboration most n effective? •What social system has to be introduced, or Regional workshops restructured? Figure 1: Outline of the ninth S&T Foresight in Japan

2.1 Setting of grand challenges The first step of the exercise is to identify the expectations for science and technology. The preliminary discussion was conducted to identify the missions of science and technology that would play an important role in drawing up the pictures of future society. Four panels organized for mission-oriented discussion were designated as “Security,” “Safety,” “International collaboration,” and “International competitiveness.” They reviewed the missions of science and technology, and selected 24 priority issues. The outcomes of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration, that is, science and technology embedded in the society as a “socialized system.” With the discussion above and the drastic changes inside and outside Japan as a backdrop, the ninth Science and Technology Foresight narrowed down the course of actions, in terms of scientific and technological challenges, into the following four grand challenges. - Central player in the scientific and technological arena; - Sustainable growth through green innovation; - Successful model for a healthy and aged society; - Secure life.

2.2 Delphi survey The delphi method is characterized by repeated questions for collective convergence of opinions, and it has been used in Japan as a technique for large-scale questionnaires targeted at experts in science and technology. The survey this time aims to outline the future prospect of evolutions in science and technology from the viewpoint of “what we should do from now onward” to resolve the global and national challenges, whereby the important areas were extracted through integrated discussions eliminating the existing boundaries of disciplines. For this reason, the panels, consisting of members from related fields, were designated not by the name of a specific discipline, but by a number. The scope and main focus of discussion was determined by each panel. Through interdisciplinary discussions, the panels defined the topics and question items. This interdisciplinary and problem-solving approach is the most significant characteristic this time in its forty-year history of delphi surveys in Japan. 12 panels set 94 areas (groups of inter-related topics) with 832 topics. Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were implemented two times, and finally 2900 responses were got in total.

2.3 Scenario writing Three approaches were attempted for scenario writing with a view to a desired future. a. Scenarios by group work Groups of experts made extensive, interdisciplinary discussion and created scenarios of future changes that may be brought about by the development of science and technology, including a path and a framework for reaching goals.

Each scenario was supposed to be centered on drawing up paths to the future, whereby an extensive coverage and description of related elements was requested, including priority research and development, human resource development, social systems to be improved, and international deployment. Table 1: Scenario themes

b. Future scenarios based on results of Delphi survey Scenarios were developed based on the average future outlook of many experts. Future scenes in daily life in 2025 were described, integrating delphi topics that were forecasted to be realized by then. c. Future society as discussed by younger generation Group discussion by younger generation was held to compensate for the possible age bias: that, by nature, experts with deep and broad knowledge who joined scenario groups or responded delphi questionnaires come disproportionately from the middle-aged and older generations.

2.4 Regional workshops Workshops were held in eight regions in Japan, where the participants discussed ideal regional lives in the future, and what kind of science and technology will be expected to contribute to realize them. This study aims to provide an initial platform on which the people in each region deepen their own independent discussions about their future vision. The discussions include all aspects required, including institutional renovation, inter-regional cooperation, and the region’s place in the era of globalization.

3 Results and policy implication Three investigative studies by delphi, scenario writing, and workshops provided results and general implications as follows:

The first result is to form a vision of the future society based on the results of the delphi questionnaires. That means that this future vision represents an attainable future objective. The second result is to identify the key areas in science and technology that are considered to have major contributions toward the realization of the future vision. This process utilizes information from delphi questionnaires and the overall relation map between the delphi areas and the scenarios created by group work. Subsequently, an attempt is made, based on the results of three investigative studies, to extract and discuss social requirements essential for promoting changes toward the future.

3.1 Vision of the future society Of all the delphi topics, those that meet the following conditions are extracted: the topics expected to be widely available in society by 2025, and the topics expected to become widely known through publications of research results. According to the experts’ view, the future population around 2025 will be living in a society more advanced in the following three aspects. Figure 2 shows an extract from the third vision regarding disaster reduction. - A society in which various diagnostic technologies and systems are embedded in daily life in an appropriate manner, enabling citizens to step forward with health management on a personal basis; - A society where individuals can use various types of energy selectively based on their comprehensive evaluation of value and can feel that they proactively contribute to global warming prevention and environmental preservation; - A society in the early stage of coping with the various disasters caused by environmental changes.

Scene: Since two years ago, full-scale disaster drills have been conducted twice a year in Japan, under a government initiative. The themes of today's disaster drills are tsunamis for coastal areas all over Japan and large- scale seismic fires for inland areas. Detailed tsunami predictions across the Pacific Ocean based on the simulation results with supercomputer are provided each and every second through communication satellites and broadcasting satellites to all over Japan and also to foreign countries if necessary. This wireless communication system, which started to operate last year, is also checked during disaster drills and further improvements are sought….

Examples of related delphi topics Nationwide stockpiling of food, medicines, and other goods, and reinforcement of the functions of infrastructure such as roads, electricity and communications to prepare against a large-scale natural disaster (2026) Real-time damage recognition and forecast technology (2024)

Figure 2: A scene in daily life regarding disaster reduction

3.2 Key areas to solving challenges Delphi survey identified 36 key areas out of all 94 areas set by the panels. It is to be noted that 18 areas, half of the key areas above, are related to energy, resources, and environment. This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related

- 6 - Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations SEVILLE, 12-13 MAY 2011 future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines. In health and medical-care related areas, preventive-medicine-related areas were selected in addition to those related to medical care. Table 2: Areas of key importance for the resolution of global and national challenges

Panel Key areas No. 1 Energy-related** No. 3 Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment No. 5 Geo-diagnosis technology*

E No. 5 Space and ocean management technology (including observations)** n

e No. 6 Nuclear energy* r g

y No. 6 Renewable energy* ,

e No. 6 Fossil energy s

o No. 6 Efficient power storage system u r

c No. 6 Energy saving e s

, No. 7 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources

n No. 7 Water resources d

e No. 7 Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA n

v No. 7 Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources, and CCS i r o

n No. 8 Life style and environment m

e No. 8 Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming n

t No. 8 Technology for urban waste minimization / material circulation for environmental conservation / resource- and energy- saving products No .8 Pollution prevention for atmosphere, water and soil / circulative use technology for water resources No. 10 Energy, resources, and environment** No. 3 Applied bio-nanotechnology M

e No. 3 Medical treatment (exogenous factor, metabolic disease, and psychiatric disease) d i

c No. 4 Medical treatment aiming at safety and security* a

l No. 4 Creation of new medical technology* No. 4 Development of predictive and preventive medicine No. 2 Socialization of information** No. 2 Cloud computing No. 2 New principle for information and communication No. 5 Space technologies (including space medicine) No. 9 Base materials for Nano-technology* No. 9 Output (device, systemization and applied technology)* No. 10 Globalization, value-adding and market creation O t

h No. 10 Unpopularity of science and engineering, human resource problem, the declining birth rate and e

r aging population s No. 11 Management to prevent the decrease of competitiveness in the international market, development of internationally competent people, and cross-cultural cooperative management. No. 11 Service management, management in the education and research field, environment business management, governmental institution management No. 11 Framework for facilitation of social innovation and network building No. 11 Management of humans, creation, management, and transfer of knowledge, education, and maintenance of education level by standardization No. 12 Strategy toward sustainable infrastructure system* **: Delphi areas with especially strong focus * : Delphi areas with strong focus In the areas classified as “others,” it merits attention that many of the social scientific areas like human resources and management, and ICT-related areas were mentioned. “Socialization of information” area gained an especially high vote rate, which indicates that importance of ICT utilization is widely recognized as well as energy-and-environment-related areas. The area

- 7 - Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations SEVILLE, 12-13 MAY 2011 addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society, and all the people living in the society benefit from it. Relations between the scenarios by group work and the delphi areas (groups of inter-related topics) are summarized in two-dimensional map (Figure 3). In the map, the items with higher similarities and closer relationships are plotted in the vicinity. Therefore, fundamental items in common generally come relatively near to the center of the map, while the items with stronger heterogeneity go to the periphery. The scenarios and delphi areas with a closer relationship are grouped together. As seen in the map, the scenarios and delphi areas related to energy, resources, and environment gather on the left side, forming a cluster of broad and relatively loosely-linked groups. On the other hand, the scenarios and delphi areas related to health and medical care gather on the right side, forming a set of groups with different characteristics to a cluster on the left side. Groups related to ICT, infrastructure, and management gather in the central part, indicating their status as common infrastructure.

Reduction of carbon-dioxide emission ICT

Water resources X2 X12 X8 X11 X7 X6 Health and X5 medical Infrastructure care

Resources Nano-/bio- technology

Culture and X10 life style

Delphi areas with especially strong focus (4 areas) *Black codes: ID of delphi areas (the numbers X9 Delphi areas with strong focus (8) indicate a panel) Support for food Delphi areas with focus (24) and production * Red codes: ID of group scenarios Scenarios where S&T are expected to make great contributions X4

Figure 3: Relation map based on the similarity analysis between group scenarios and delphi areas In the map, red circles indicate the 36 key delphi areas shown in Table 2, which are graded according to the experts’ expectation. Blue circles indicate the five scenarios where science and technology are expected to make great contributions because a lot of related technological topics are seen in the delphi survey.

The cluster of groups related to energy, resources, and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first direction of innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society because it has many of the 36 key areas and two out of the five scenarios. In addition, the cluster of groups related to health and medical care on the right side can be deemed to constitute the second direction. It also has two out of the five scenarios above although it has only a small number of key areas shown in Table 2.Other elements that possibly assume a high level of importance come from such areas as fundamental technology (e.g. ICT and infrastructure) and sociological science (e.g. lifestyle and management), and it is noteworthy that they are arranged in the central part of the map, overlapping the two groups described above. In other words, when focusing attention on the two directions, it would be beneficial to develop an argument asserting the common aspects above. Above all, ICT takes up a crucial position that has a decisive impact on the whole area of science and technology.

3.3 Policy implication To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science and technology, foresight clearly should define the vision for the future and showed the framework toward its realization. Through these processes, many findings come into view as to what should have priority for promoting innovation. Naturally, the approach to solve global and national challenges goes far beyond the border of research and development in a single area or discipline, and necessarily involves collaboration across disciplines. It also calls for reformations of social systems and a discussion of the way in which international deployment should be carried out. One of the weak points in the conventional approach—predominantly focusing on a selected area and promotion on an area-by-area basis—lies in the fact that too much focus is placed on importance within an area, rather than the innovation that may happen in the future society. The discussion sometimes comes short of the extensive consideration in terms of the subject’s relative position in the entirety of science and technology, and the meaning it has in relation to society. Results show that mission-oriented and interdisciplinary approach is effective to find out the direction of innovation and its promoting strategy. In addition, system thinking, which includes not only technical systems but also social systems and provision of services, is essential for embedding technologies in real society. The other accompanying factor is management of technology-related issues, i.e. knowledge base, business, risk, globalization, human resources, and so on. These indicate that the closer the relation among science, technology and society will be in the future, the more interdisciplinary involvement will be expected.

4 Conclusion The 9th Foresight in Japan was implemented under the principle of contribution to future society. Integrated discussion that values diversity of disciplines can lead to identification of grand challenges where innovation is required and frameworks for their solution. - When we see a large picture of desired future visions in Japan, green innovation and life innovation define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future. ICT shall provide basic technology underpinning these efforts, and the process should be promoted through discussions involving such common aspects as infrastructure, management, and life style;

- Emphasis should be placed on the systematization technologies directly linked to the actual implementation of solutions in real-life society: e.g. institutional design and the system for service delivery;

References NISTEP (2010), Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society – Summary on the 9th Science and Technology Foresight, NISTEP REPORT No.145 NISTEP (2010), The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - The 9th Delphi survey, NISTEP REPORT No.140 NISTEP (2010), The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Future Scenarios Opened up by Science and Technology, NISTEP REPORT No.141 NISTEP (2010), The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Capability of Local Regions for the Green Innovation, NISTEP REPORT No.142

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