Committee on World Food Security
High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition
Food Security and Climate Change
A zero draft consultation paper
19 March 2012
Submitted by the HLPE to open electronic consultation
This paper has been produced by the HLPE Project Team: Gerald C. Nelson (Team Leader), Zucong Cai, Charles Godfray, Rashid Hassan, Maureen Santos, and Hema Swaminathan.
This advanced draft is put online as part of the report elaboration process of the HLPE, for public feedback and comments from 20 March 2012 until 10 April 2012.
To get the link to the consultation: www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe
This consultation will be used by the HLPE Project Team to further elaborate the report, which will then be submitted to external expert review, before finalization by the Project Team under Steering Committee guidance and oversight. According to the provisions of the Rules and Procedures for the work of the HLPE, prior to its publication, the final report will be approved by the HLPE Steering Committee. This is expected to take place at the 5th meeting of the HLPE Steering Committee (June 2012).
i Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012)
1 Table of Contents
FOREWORD ...... v
SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS (INCLUDING LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS) ...... vi
1 Assessing impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and nutrition today ...... 1
1.1 Introduction ...... 1
1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security today ...... 2
1.3 What do we know about climate change? ...... 3
1.4 Food security and the effects of climate change ...... 7
1.4.1 Climate change consequences for different agricultural systems ...... 8
1.4.2 Role of women in agricultural production ...... 9
1.4.3 Availability ...... 11
1.4.4 Access ...... 16
1.4.5 Utilization ...... 17
1.4.6 Stability ...... 17
1.5 Policy messages ...... 18
2 Assessing impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and nutrition tomorrow: Plausible scenarios of the future ...... 20
2.1 Introduction ...... 20
2.2 Climate scenarios and their consequences for climate change for food and nutrition security and nutrition ………..... 21
2.3 Availability ...... 22
2.4 Access ...... 23
2.5 Use ...... 24
2.6 Stability ...... 25
2.7 Data and modeling issues ...... 25
2.8 Policy Messages ...... 25
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3 Chapter 3: Adaptation: Response options for food security challenges from climate change ...... 27
3.1 Introduction ...... 27
3.2 Lessons from recent adaptation ...... 28
3.3 Anticipatory strategies and options for adapting to climate change ...... 28
3.3.1 Availability ...... 28
3.3.2 Access ...... 30
3.3.3 Use ...... 31
3.3.4 Stability ...... 31
3.4 Sectoral approaches to adaptation ...... 31
3.4.1 The private sector...... 31
3.4.2 Governments and international organizations ...... 32
3.4.3 The research community ...... 33
4 Agricultural mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions ...... 35
4.1 Introduction ...... 35
4.2 Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions ...... 35
4.3 GHG emissions from land use change ...... 36
4.4 Mitigation options in agriculture...... 37
4.5 Synergies and tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation ...... 38
4.6 Policy messages ...... 39
5 Recommendations for policies and actions ...... 40
5.1 Introduction ...... 40 5.2 Climate change responses should be complementary to, not independent of, activities that are needed for sustainable food security ...... 40
5.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation require national activities and global coordination …….….... 41
5.3.1 Adaptation ...... 41
5.3.2 Mitigation ...... 41
5.4 Public-public and public-private partnerships are essential ...... 42
References ...... 40
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2 List of Figures
Figure 1. Changing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs of importance to agriculture, 1978-2010 and Growth in global warming potential by section 1970-2004 (lower right) ...... 5
Figure 2. Regional distribution of GHG emissions in 2004 by population (mt CO2-eq per capita) ...... 6
Figure 3. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (PgC) ...... 6
Figure 4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings...... 7
Figure 5. The share of women in agricultural work and in extension services, selected African countries ….10
Figure 6. Agricultural population as a share of total economically active population (2003-2005 average) ...... 12
Figure 7. Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by the overall yield trend ...... 15
Figure 8. Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption ...... 16
Figure 9. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) ...... 22
Figure 10. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, MIROC, A1B (mm) ...... 22
Figure 11. Yield effects, rainfed maize, CSIRO A1B ...... 23
Figure 12. Yield effects, rainfed maize, MIROC A1B ...... 23
Figure 13. Vulnerability domains where there is greater than 5% change in length of growing period (LGP)...... 24
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FOREWORD
The UN Committee on World Food Security (CFS) underwent a reform in 2009 in order to make the international governance of food security and nutrition more effective through improved coordination, policy coherence, and support and advice to countries and regions. The reformed CFS set up a High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE), for getting credible scientific and knowledge-based advice to underpin policy formulation, thereby creating an interface between knowledge and public policy. The HLPE is directed by a Steering Committee, appointed in July 2010. The work of the HLPE supports the policy agenda of CFS: this makes its reports demand driven. It serves also to raise awareness on emerging issues.
In its October 2010 annual meeting, the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS) requested its HLPE to conduct a study on climate change and food security, to “review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition.”
[to be completed in the final version of the report.]
v Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012)
SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS (INCLUDING LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS)
[to be completed in the final version of the report.]
vi vii 1 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY AND NUTRITION TODAY
1.1 Introduction
In its October 2010 annual meeting, the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS) requested its high level panel of experts (HLPE) to conduct a study on climate change and food security, to “review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition.” This report is the outcome of that request. The authors interpreted this charge to develop a document of relevance to national and international policymakers that served four purposes. First, it should provide an overview of what is known about the consequences of climate change for food and nutrition security and nutrition, written with a policy maker in mind. Because the effects of climate change will grow progressively more serious, the report assesses both the current situation (Chapter 1) and plausible scenarios of the future (Chapter 2) with focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations. Second it should assess the state of knowledge on and need for agricultural adaptation to climate change, in the context of the already large challenges to food security from population and income growth in a world where many natural systems are already stressed (Chapter 3). Third, it should report on agriculture’s current contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and what potential is there for agriculture in mitigation – reducing its own emissions and capturing emissions from other sectors – while meeting the growing demand for food (Chapter 4). Finally, based on the insights from the first four chapters, the final chapter (Chapter 5) suggests national and international policy strategies for dealing with the food security challenges of climate change.
A short report cannot be exhaustive, either about the range of food security challenges from a growing population, with higher incomes, in a world with increasingly scarce natural resources, or the threats from climate change. Rather the goal is to synthesize existing research findings to highlight key issues, with supporting evidence, to provide the basis for helping national and international policy makers devise effective and equitable policies to combat the additional challenges to global food security from climate change.
Three overarching policy messages arise from this report. They are introduced here, expanded in each of the chapters and summarized in the last chapter. First, to help those most vulnerable to climate change, policies and programs that are designed to respond to climate change should be complementary to, not independent of, those needed for sustainable food security1. But climate change poses unique and uncertain threats to food security that require public and private sector action today with special emphasis in public sector action and the increase in international cooperation. Second, climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture must should be implemented on millions of farms and undertaken by people who are often the most vulnerable, and in accordance with the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Local lessons learned are most valuable when shared. Supporting activities require global coordination as well as national programs. Finally, both publicpublic and public-private partnerships are essential to address all elements of the coming challenges to
1See the glossary for more discussion of sustainable food security as discussed in the 2009 World Food Summit declaration.
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food security from climate change in equitable and efficient ways. This will require greater transparency and new roles for all elements of society, including the private sector and civil society.
1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and nutrition today
In several portions of this section, the issue is addressed from the perspective of the definition of food security, which is descriptive, and then the analysis continues based on a quantitative definition of poverty, leaving behind food security as subject of analysis. Further, the issue of poverty should not be addressed as if limited to rural areas, particularly considering that public policies intended to fight it need to differ greatly according to the type of poverty at which they are aimed, either rural or urban.
The World Food Summit of 2009 included the following definition of food security in its final declaration.
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. The four pillars of food security are availability2, access3, utilization4 and stability5. The nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2009).6
Certainly we have not succeeded in meeting this definition. Even the modest ambition of the hunger target of the Millennium Development goals—halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger between 1990 and 2015—is also unlikely to be met on a global basis, although some individual countries will achieve the target. The share of undernourished people has remained essentially constant at about 16 percent since 2000, after declining from 20 percent in 1990 (United Nations, 2010), and it too is likely to have increased during the global financial crisis that began in the late 2000s.7
Climate change will make the challenge of achieving food security even harder. Its effects on food production and distribution may increase poverty and inequality, with impacts on each of the four pillars, and consequent effects on livelihoods and nutrition.
The Committee’s charge includes two foci
2 The supply side of food security, determined by production, stocks and trade.
3 Access is influenced by incomes, markets, and prices.
4 Utilization focuses on how the body takes advantage of the various nutrients. It is influenced by care and feeding practices, food preparation, dietary diversity, and intrahousehold distribution.
5 Stability brings in the time dimension. Periodic shortfalls in food availability are a sign of food insecurity, even if current consumption is adequate.
6 This definition of food security differs slight from that developed in the World Food Summit of 1996, especially in its inclusion of the stability pillar.
2 7 A different perspective on recent global progress is given in Kenny (2012). “On Feb. 29 [2012], the World Bank came out with its latest estimates on global poverty. They suggest incredible worldwide progress against the scourge of absolute deprivation. In 1981, 52 percent of the planet lived on $1.25 a day or less according to the World Bank's estimates; today it is around 20 percent. In 1990, around 65 percent of the population lived on less than $2 a day; by 2008 that number had fallen to 43 percent. This is not just a story about China -- though 663 million people in that country alone have climbed out of poverty since the early 1980s. Poverty has been declining in every region, and for the first time since the World Bank began making estimates, less than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa lives in absolute deprivation.”
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the most affected vulnerable regions and populations the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity
The “most affected vulnerable regions and populations” part of the request directs attention to the regions of the world or populations that will feel the effects of climate change, either directly via changes in precipitation and temperature, or indirectly, for example, via biophysical changes elsewhere that result in market effects locally. Vulnerability to climate change8 suggests a focus on regions, groups, or individuals who are significantly and adversely affected by the direct or indirect biophysical effects of climate change9. These are mostly likely to be the poor; the well-off can afford to ‘buy’ food security, at least in the short run.
Who are the poor? They are likely to be located in rural areas and be female and children. Using World Bank statistics (http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/), over 20 percent of the world’s population are below the $1.25 a day poverty line (about 1.3 billion people). They are overwhelmingly located in two regions – Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. [A few more statistics to be added.]
An important point we return to in the final chapter is that programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance food security. There is likely to be substantial overlap between the poor, those who are food insecure and those affected by climate change. Climate change adds to the challenges of improving their well-being. But there are many other determinants of poverty and challenges to the vulnerable. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently risk using resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate change brings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security programs.
To set the stage, this section begins with an overview of what we know about the science of climate change, the ways in which human behavior can bring about changes in climate and the evidence to date that such change is taking place and how it affects food and nutrition security and nutrition. It is followed by a discussion of how food security is affected by climate change. These effects include biological consequences for crops, livestock, and systems, and the direct and indirect consequences for food security.
1.2 What do we know about climate change?
Climate is usually defined as average weather; climate change as changes in climate caused directly or indirectly by human activity10. Many things people do can cause local changes in climate.11 However, this
8 The glossary defines climate change vulnerability as “the degree to which an individual is or groups of
3 individuals are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.”
9 A useful discussion of the basic concepts of food security, including concepts of vulnerability, is Food and Agriculture Organization (2008).
10 Article 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’.
Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012) report focuses on patterns that can be observed globally. Physicists and atmospheric scientists have known for more than 100 years that some gasses in the atmosphere, known as greenhouse gases (GHGs), convert light from the sun to heat that warms the air. The top and bottom left panels of Figure 1 show recent changes in concentrations of GHGs that are produced by agricultural activities. Carbon dioxide (CO2) was the GHG that received initial attention in climate change research, because of the rapid growth in petroleum use for transport and coal for energy generation in the 20th century. As the top left graph in Figure 1 shows, there has been a steady increase in CO2 over the latter part of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century.12 Two other GHGs – nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) – are created by agricultural activities. N2O is released from a variety of agricultural activities with nitrogenbased fertilizer as an especially important source. N2O emissions have shown an upward growth similar to that of CO2. Agricultural CH4 emissions come from two distinct activities – the digestive processes of cattle and other ruminants (both wild and domesticated), and the decomposition of plant matter under anaerobic conditions such as in irrigated rice fields. The growth in CH4 concentrations slowed in the beginning of the 21st century. Some observers attribute this to a concerted effort to reduce leaks in natural gas (almost completely made up of CH4) pipelines in some parts of the world. Other explanations include reduction in wetland areas and changes in the atmospheric composition that increase the breakdown of CH4.
The GHGs are very different in their ability to convert sunlight into warming, called their global warming potential (GWP). The convention is to compare other GHGs to CO2 and report them in units of CO2 equivalents (CO2-eq).13 The bottom right graph in Figure 1 shows the growth in GWP from 1970 to 2004 by source. CO2 from fossil fuel use is the largest single source, and has grown steadily over this period, but emissions from agricultural activities are quite important as well. Roughly speaking, agricultural activities including deforestation account for about 1/3 of total GWP from GHG emissions.
4 11 Examples include higher temperatures in cities than in the surrounding countryside (heat islands) and local increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns when forests are cleared.
12 The cyclical pattern arises because plants in the northern hemisphere take up CO2 in spring when they grow and then release it in the fall when they die.
13 The GWP of CH4 is 25; for N2O it is 298.
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Figure 1. Changing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs of importance to agriculture, 1978-2010 and Growth in global warming potential by section 1970-2004 (lower right)
Sources: GHG concentrations - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2011.fig2.png. GWP - http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-1.html
Figure 2 shows average emissions per person in different regions of the world. Annex 1 countries (which are essentially the developed countries of today) have average emissions of 16.1 mt CO2-eq per capita while the average for non-Annex 1 countries is roughly one fourth of this amount (4.2 mt CO2-eq per capita). Within the group of non-Annex 1 countries South Asia has the lowest per capita emissions.
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Figure 2. Regional distribution of GHG emissions in 2004 by population (mt CO2-eq per capita)
Source: Figure 2.2 a in IPCC (2007). Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-2.jpg.
However, economic growth in non-Annex 1 countries is leading to rapid growth of emissions in those countries, as Figure 3 indicates. For example, Olivier, Janssens-Maenhout, Peters, & Wilson (2011) report that China’s per capita CO2 emissions in 2010 were larger than those of France and Spain and could overtake the US by 2017. Meeting any of the emissions goals of recent UNFCCC meetings will require both reductions in emissions from Annex 1 countries and reductions in emissions growth in non- Annex 1 countries.
Figure 3. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (PgC)
Source: Figure 2 in Peters et al. (2012).
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In parallel with the increases in GHG emissions, average temperatures across the globe have increased from the late 19th century to the early 21st century. During the first half of the 20th century the average temperature rose by about 0.3°C; by the beginning of the 21st century another 0.5°C had been added (IPCC, 2007). To assess the possibility that the temperature increases are brought about by humandriven increases in GHGs, a variety of evidence is brought to bear. A widely used technique is to use software models (called GCMs in this report)14 of the physical and chemical processes of the atmosphere and its interactions with land and oceans and use them to explore temperature changes with and without GHGs from human activity. These models make it possible to perform virtual experiments, both to test the models and to evaluate the effects of possible future emissions pathways and of mitigation policies. Figure 4 illustrates the differences in model outcomes with historical data between 1900 and 2000 when run with and without GHGs from human activities. The blue bands are model outcomes for temperature without human-induced GHGs, the pink bars show temperature increases with these gases, and the black lines indicate what actually happened. The black lines are almost entirely contained within the pink bands and mostly fall outside the blue bands. These types of analyses suggest that the models do well both at capturing the biophysical processes that result in changes in climate and that human-induced GHG emissions are likely to have been important in the temperature increases already observed.
Figure 4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings.
Source: Based on Figure 2.5 in WGI Figure SPM.4.
7 1.4 Food security and the effects of climate change The threats to sustainable food security include population growth mostly in today’s developing countries with growing incomes in a world where resource constraints are already limiting productivity growth in some places. Climate change is a threat multiplier – adding to the challenges from the other threats. All four pillars of food security are affected by changing climate means and increasing variability. These
14 The current versions of these models are called Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and are referred to as climate models or GCMs in this report. There are roughly 18 of these models in active development around the world.
Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012) translate into changes in average levels and variability in food production, with knock-on effects on income for food producers and food affordability for urban consumers. These effects will be felt, and must be dealt with, from global to local food systems. Local social-environmental systems are where the immediate effects of climate change are felt and are therefore key actors in societal responses to climate change. But global, national and local social and political institutions will all play important roles in managing the effects of climate change on food security and need to work together to find ways to reduce risks and ensure food security and nutrition for all.
An important aspect of how climate change affects food security is differences in modes of agricultural production both locally within a particular region and across the globe. There are many dimensions to agricultural practices; we focus on two – the scale of farm operation and individuals who make decisions and undertake the work on the farm. Other distinctions of relevance include the degree to which farm output is sold, the extent to which farm operations are undertaken primarily by family labor, and the degree of mixed outputs (different crops, crop and livestock outputs, and other ecosystem services15), sometimes referred to as multifunctionality (IAASTD, 2008). These are often, but not always, related to scale of operation.
1.4.1 Climate change consequences for different agricultural systems Food production systems are extremely diverse, both within individual countries and across national boundaries. Climate change will not affect all systems the same, hence the need to assess different policy and program approaches. At the same time policy choices influence the evolution of agricultural systems, which can impact climate change and food security. Agricultural systems differ in many dimensions, driven by climate, natural resource availability, ownerand operator characteristics and sociocultural drivers. One common organizing approach to describing agricultural systems is a dichotomy that contrasts small scale16 with larger scale farming. The IASSTD report (2008) states that “The two systems differ greatly in terms of resource consumption, capital intensity, access to markets and employment opportunities” (IAASTD, 2008: 44). A central element of
15 The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. In line with the definition provided by FAO, these include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating services such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits; and supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the
8 conditions for life on Earth.
16 What we refer to as small-scale farming goes by many names with varying definitions. It is also known as small farmer, smallholder, family or peasant farmer, subsistence, and family agriculture. Participants in small-scale farming include family farmers, herders and pastoralists, landless and rural workers, forest dwellers, fisher folk, gardeners, indigenous peoples and traditional communities. (Actionaid UK, 2009:1).
Governments must translate these qualitative concepts about small-scale farming into official definitions for policy implementation. Official definitions of small scale farming vary dramatically across countries and incorporate different elements. In Asia, cultivated area is a typical measure and a common cutoff is 2 hectares. Using this definition globally, Nagayets (2005) reports that most small farms are in Asia (87 percent), followed by Africa (8 percent), Europe (4 percent) and North and South America (1 percent). In Brazil, the official definition of a family farm (roughly equivalent to a small-scale farm) is 5-110 hectares depending on region of the country, uses predominantly family labor, and provides the bulk of the family income. In the U.S. the definition is based on the size of sales, with farms having sales less than $50,000 being considered small.
Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012) scale is the agricultural area under the control of a farmer, both in its own right and because it is often correlated with other elements of a farm operation, such as access to capital resources and information on new inputs and management techniques. Almost three quarters of all farms globally are less than 1 hectare (Von Braun, 2005). With some assumptions about farm size within the categories of Table 2 in Von Braun (2005), it is possible to estimate that farms of 20 hectares or less accounted for about 25 percent of total cultivated area in the early 2000s. However this global picture hides dramatic differences. Farms in Asia and Africa average well below 10 hectares while North American farms are well over 100 hectares on average. In Africa and Latin America, small-scale farming represents approximately 80 percent of all farms (Nagayets, 2005). In Latin America they produce up to 67 percent of total output and create up to 77 percent of employment in the agricultural sector (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2011).
Small-scale farming operations play several critical roles in addressing the needs of vulnerable populations. They “feed poor communities – including themselves” along with the majority of the world population (IAASTD. 2008: 22). They manage a sizeable share of the agricultural land, employ a large share of the poorer working community, provide access to food at the local and the regional level, and sometimes have less harmful environmental impacts. Thus small-scale farming must play a major role today in addressing the challenges of climate change.17
We know too little about how crops and livestock grown and management practices change with scale to identify global patterns consistently, but it is commonly assumed that small-scale farms are more likely to engage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. On the other hand, small-scale operations are less likely to have access to extension services, markets for new inputs and seeds, and loans to finance operations. Gaining a better understanding of the differences in farm activities, and vulnerability to climate change is critical, both to finding ways to improve food security and to deal with the climate change challenges to agricultural productivity and stability.
1.4.2 Role of women in agricultural production
To address the climate change threats to agriculture, policies and programs must target those who make the management decisions and carry out the work. In many parts of the world, this is done mostly by women. A recent joint report by the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (2009) estimated that women account for 60 to 90 percent of total food production in their respective countries. In developing countries as a whole, women constitute approximately 43 percent of the agricultural labor force, ranging from 20 percent in Latin America to 50 percent in Southeastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2011). Hence, programs that are being designed to improve food security should target women and the activities that they undertake. For example, targeting women with extension advice would seem to be the most cost-effective way to deliver information about improved farming practices generally and climate change responses in
9 particular. Yet women are almost always underrepresented in extension services as Figure 5 shows for selected African countries.
17 At the same time, it must be recognized that urbanization is proceeding rapidly in all parts of the world. Using the United Nation medium variant population and urbanization estimates (available at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm, almost 69 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas by 2050 and the rural population will decline from 3.4 million in 2010 to 2.9 million in 2050. At least in some parts of the world, farm populations will decline and farm sizes grow.
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Figure 5. The share of women in agricultural work and in extension services, selected African Countries
Source of figure: Figure SR-WA2 in IAASTD (2008).
Beyond the issue of access to information, women are typically disadvantaged on other aspects of farming. Women are less likely to enjoy the same level of access to agricultural inputs as men which has implications for agricultural productivity (Dey 1992, Quisumbing 1996, Thapa 2008 as cited in Agarwal 2011). There is very little systematic gender-disaggregated data on ownership of key assets such as land, making it difficult to track trends either spatially or temporally. But the few studies that exist (see FAO, 2011 for details) point to large gaps in land holdings. Among all agricultural land holders in West Asia and North Africa less than 5 percent are women while this Box: Extreme weather in Ghana figure is approximately 15 percent for Sub Saharan affects women disproportionately Africa. At a regional level, Latin America has the highest A study in northeast Ghana shows average share of female agricultural holders. A recent that women subsistence farmers were study disproportionately affected by drought found that overall incidence of land ownership in the rural and floods. Particularly vulnerable population in the state of Karnataka in India was only 9 were single women who lacked the percent for women and 39 percent for men (H. household labour to plant a labourintensive crop like rice. They also could not harness the community 10 support that married women could to help undertake house building and repairs (Glazebrook, 2011). Swaminathan, Suchitra, & Lahoti, 2011). Further, evidence shows that on average, female-headed households own smaller plots than male-headed households. Similarly, women are also constrained with regard to livestock ownership and other productive inputs and services including credit, technology, equipment, extension services, fertilizers, water, and agricultural labour; all inputs
Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012) needed to cope with climate change (World Bank 2009, FAO 2011). These gendered constraints directly affect women’s farm productivity. According to FAO (2011), by addressing the gender gap in agriculture developing countries can experience productivity gains of 2.5 to 4 percent with an associated decline of 12 – 17 percent in undernourished people. While this study did not address climate change specifically, it is possible that the productivity gains would be even greater as the effects of climate change become greater.
The policy message is that as vulnerable communities face negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure) from climate change, the burden of food insecurity is likely to be borne disproportionately by women and girls and there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programs generally and climate-change-specific activities to women.
In the next sections we address briefly the potential effects of climate change on the four pillars of food security.
1.4.3 Availability
Food availability begins on millions of farms around the world. Farmers use land, their family labor and possibly that of others, and various kinds of equipment to manage the process of producing food. They choose what to produce based on the natural resources at their disposal (including soil quality and weather), the inputs they have access to (both previous investments such as irrigation systems and current inputs such as seed and animal varieties), and the market situation they face. Some portion of what they produce is transported off the farm, either by farmers themselves or traders transporting it to processors or to intermediate or final markets. According to FAO (FAOSTAT, 2010), the number of people working in agriculture grew from 2.5 billion in 2000 to 2.6 billion in 2010 with the share of total population in agriculture declining from 42 percent to 28 percent. Global averages conceal great differences across countries. As a general rule, the share of the population working in agriculture declines as a country develops and has higher incomes per person as Figure 6 shows.
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Figure 6. Agricultural population as a share of total economically active population (2003-2005 average)
Source: FAOSTAT.
1.4.3.1 Biological effects of climate change on crops, livestock, and agricultural systems.
Systematic studies of the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation across the range of crops, livestock, and fish are in their infancy and more research is needed to understand the consequences and identify promising avenues for productivity and resiliency enhancing investments. Crops respond most favourably to environments similar to those they evolved in – maize in Central America, potatoes in the Andes, wheat in the Middle East, rice in South Asia – and for the climate conditions in which they evolved. Breeding efforts extend the range of environmental possibilities, and that is especially true for crops that have substantial genetic diversity or the greatest commercial demand. In relation to climate change, considerably more research has been done on its effects on grains than on roots and tubers, horticultural crops and feed crops, and there is much more information available on its impacts in temperate climes than in the tropics, and in land-based systems than in marine-based systems.
Climate change affects plants, animals and natural systems in many ways18. In general, higher average temperatures will accelerate the growth and development of plants. Most livestock species have comfort zones between 10-30 °C, and at temperatures above this, animals reduce their feed intake 3-5 percent per additional degree of temperature. In addition to reducing animal production, higher temperatures negatively affect fertility. Some of the other impacts of climate change on animals are mediated through its effect on the plants they eat. Rising temperatures are not uniformly bad: they will lead to improved crop productivity in parts of the tropical highlands, for example, where cool temperatures are currently constraining crop growth. Average temperature effects are important, but there are other temperature effects too. Increased night-time temperatures reduce rice yields, for example, by up to 10 percent for
12 18 This section draws heavily from Thornton PK, Cramer L (eds), forthcoming 2012, “Impacts of climate change on the agricultural and aquatic systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate”. CCAFS Report, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark. This report has detailed discussions on climate change vulnerability of each of the CGIAR mandate crops, animals, and systems.
Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012) each 1°C increase in minimum temperature in the dry season. Increases in maximum temperatures can lead to severe yield reductions and reproductive failure in many crops. In maize, for example, each degree day spent above 30 °C can reduce yield by 1.7 percent under drought conditions. Higher temperatures are also associated with higher ozone concentrations. Ozone is harmful to all plants but soybeans, wheat, oats, green beans, peppers, and some types of cotton are particularly susceptible.
Changes in temperature and rainfall regime may have considerable impacts on agricultural productivity and on the ecosystem provisioning services provided by forests and agroforestry systems on which many people depend. There is little information currently available on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and subsequent effects on productivity in either forestry or agroforestry systems. Globally, the negative effects of climate change on freshwater systems are expected to outweigh the benefits of overall increases in global precipitation due to a warming planet.
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has risen from a pre-industrial 280 ppm to approximately 392 ppm in 2010, and was rising by about 2 ppm per year during the last decade. Many studies show yield increases (“CO2 fertilisation”) for C3 crops and limited if any effects on C4 plants such as maize and sorghum. There is some uncertainty associated with the impact of increased CO2 concentrations on plant growth under typical field conditions, and in some crops such as rice, the effects are not yet fully understood. While increased CO2 has a beneficial effect on wheat growth and development, for example, it may also affect the nutrient mix in the grain (discussed below). In some crops such as bean, genetic differences in plant response to CO2 have been found, and these could be exploited through breeding. Increased CO2 concentrations lead directly to ocean acidification, which (together with sea-level rise and warming temperatures) is already having considerable detrimental impacts on coral reefs and the communities that depend on them for their food security.
Vegetables are generally sensitive to environmental extremes and high temperatures and limited soil moisture are the major causes of low yields in the tropics. These will be further magnified by climate change (Pe
Little is known, in general, about the impacts of climate change on the pests and diseases of crops, livestock and fish, but they could be substantial. Yams and cassava are crops that are both well adapted to drought and heat stress, but it is thought that their pest and disease susceptibility in a changing climate could severely affect their productivity and range in the future. Potato is another crop for which the pest and disease complex is very important – similarly for many dryland crops – and how these may be affected by climate change (including the problems associated with increased rainfall intensity) is not well
13 understood.
Climate change will result in multiple stresses for animals and plants in many agricultural and aquatic systems in the coming decades. There is a great deal that is yet unknown about how stresses may combine. In rice, there is some evidence that a combination of heat stress and salinity stress leads to additional physiological effects over and above the effects that each stress has in isolation. Studies are urgently needed that investigate “stress combinations” and the interactions between different abiotic and biotic stresses in key agricultural and aquacultural systems.
Most studies of the biological effects of climate change on crop production have focused on yield19. A second impact, much less studied, is how the quality of food and forages are affected by climate change;
19 See http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/Document/Grain percent20Quality.pdf for more details on climate change effects on grain quality.
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i.e., the composition of nutrients in the individual food items and the potential for a changing mix of foods as crops and animals respond in different ways to a changing climate. Grains have received the most attention – with both higher CO2 levels and temperature affecting grain quality. For example, Hatfield et al. (2011) summarize research showing that protein content in wheat is reduced by high CO2 levels. FACE experiments reported by Ainsworth and McGrath (2010) and in China (Erda et al., 2010) show that protein content of non-leguminous grain crops decreased by 10-14 percent and also mineral concentrations such as iron and zinc decreased by 15-30 percent for CO2 concentrations of 550 ppmv, compared to ambient levels. Wrigley (2006) reported that yield increase in wheat due to doubling of CO2 comes from more grains rather than larger grains and produces lower protein content and higher starch content. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI, 2007) reported that higher temperatures will affect rice quality traits such as chalk, amylase content, and gelatinization temperature.
1.4.3.2 Evidence of effects of climate change on agriculture today
Evidence is mounting of the links between human-induced GHG emissions and effects on agricultural productivity. For example, recent research by David Lobell and colleagues strongly suggests that rising temperatures in the second half of the 20th century and early years of the 21st century, and accompanying changes in precipitation, have already had observable and varying effects on agriculture across the globe. Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts (2011) find a dramatic difference in the recent past (1980- 2008) between the small changes in growing season temperature in North America and the large increases in other parts of the world, particularly Europe and China. The consequence can clearly be seen in the changes in yields in Figure 7. Focusing on maize, the U.S. shows essentially zero effect of climate change on yield trends while for China, Brazil, and France, climate change slowed yield growth substantially. However, regional crop production in some countries have benefited from higher temperatures, observations supported by northward shifts in maize area in the U.S., rice area in China, and wheat area in Russia. Rapidly increasing GHG emissions, especially in developing countries, combined with Growing evidence of negative climate change effects on agriculture, the likelihood of nonlinear effects of temperature on yields, and hints of the added burden of more frequent extreme weather events suggest an extremely serious challenge for sustainable food security.
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Figure 7. Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by the overall yield trend
Source: Figure 3 in Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts (2011).
1.4.3.3 Food security and climate change effects after harvest
Figure 8 illustrates the potential for enhancing food security by interventions after harvest and the potential for negative effects from climate change. Harvest losses on farm, from harvest practices and poor storage, account for 13 percent of harvested output, and occur predominantly in developing countries. Higher temperatures and greater humidity from climate change will encourage more damage in stored grain from insects and fungal attacks. Animals consume another 26 percent of the harvest. Dietary changes to reduce meat consumption where it is harmful to human health would significantly reduce this use making more available for direct human consumption and reducing pressure to expand agricultural areas. Distribution losses and waste account for a further 17 percent of the harvest. These losses occur most frequently in developed countries. Higher temperatures from climate change will increase the need for refrigeration in the food distribution network.
What seems clear is that investments to reduce losses after harvest generally will also address the negative effects of climate change. In this case, climate change increases the urgency but not the direction of efforts to reduce post-harvest loss.
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Figure 8. Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption
Source: Designed by Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil based on Figure 1 in Lundqvist, de Fraiture, & Molden, (2008)
1.4.4 Access Even when availability is not a concern, access to food is affected by climate change due to the disruption or loss of livelihoods and price volatility of staples. Individuals with high risk of food insecurity are largely concentrated in rural areas where food production takes place so their livelihoods will be directly affected by local effects of climate change and indirectly by effects in other parts of the world. Given the general trend for increased urbanization globally, climate change effects will also be felt by the urban poor. A recent study by Chen and Ravallion (2007) finds that even though poverty is still a rural phenomenon, the incidence of urban poverty to total poverty is positively associated with urbanization ; that is, as urbanization continues, urban poverty rates will likely rise. Climate change could significantly increase the risk of severe undernourishment for the poor. For those whose incomes are just above the poverty line
16 and who lack private or public safety nets, Box: Wild harvested food and climate change. climate change shocks can make them According to Arnold et al. (2011) around one billion food insecure, even if only for a period people, likely to be among the poorest of the poor, rely on (affecting the stability pillar). wild harvested products for food and income. For Access is also conditioned by power instance a study by Nasi, Taber and Van Vliet provides imbalances in the social and political data showing that approximately 4.5 million tons of bush sphere. For example, support for meat is extracted annually from the Congo Basin forests community-led initiatives such as food alone. Wild animal and plant foods add not only banks and state-financed food considerable calories but also much needed protein and distribution micronutrients. As climate change alters ecosystem systems may be reduced during times functioning it is possible that these important foods for the of poor will be negatively affected. It is also likely that economic hardship induced by climate relying on this food source may become a more important change. adaptation strategy during natural disasters, droughts, Policy approaches and interventions and floods. governing access are typically focused on
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the household. But intrahousehold food allocation choices may lead to differential effects of climate change on access. ‘Women’s” work often includes fetching water, fuel wood collection, food preparation and caring for all household members, leaving women little time to engage in cash-generating activities. When environmental degradation caused by climate change increases the time spent on activities like water collection, it drives down further women’s ability to earn an income. Given intra-household dynamics it is conceivable that women and girls are affected more acutely during scarcity than men and boys.
1.4.5 Utilization
The quantity of available food is only one of several determinants of the effective utilization of food, with access to clean water important for all consumers and maternal education especially important for child nutrition (Smith & Haddad, 2000). The diversity of diet is also important with consumption of a range of fresh fruits and vegetables and moderate amounts of protein sources (vegetable, animal or fish-based) and starchy staples recommended by nutritionists. However, dietary trends around the world are towards consumption of processed food products with large proportion of sugars, fats and oils, leading to growing concerns about overnutrition and negative health consequences of obesity, even in developing countries (UN, 2011).
Because efforts to alleviate hunger require provision of food with sufficient energy (calorific) content, public sector research resources have been devoted to improving the productivity of the major staple
17 crops, especially rice, wheat, and maize that currently account for 50 percent of total calorie consumption globally and with much higher shares in developing countries (FAOSTAT). Fewer resources have been devoted to fruits and vegetables. However, fruits and vegetables are extremely valuable for dealing with micronutrient deficiencies. They also provide smallholder farmers with much higher income and more jobs per hectare than staple crops (AVRDC 2006). The worldwide production of vegetables has doubled over the past quarter century [get statistic on fruits] and the value of global trade in vegetables exceeds that of cereals. More research is needed on the effects of climate change on fruit and vegetable productivity.
By altering the pattern of pests and diseases, climate change can affect utilization by impacting human health and food quality and safety (FAO, 2008). Weather changes, increased droughts and flooding, greater variance in precipitation are all likely to pose an increased risk to human health.
1.4.6 Stability
The fourth pillar of food security is stability; uninterrupted availability and access to food. Periodic inadequate access contributes to food insecurity and results in a reduced nutritional status (FAO, 2008).
Crop production is cyclic with availability during periods after harvest met either by local storage or supply from other regions, domestic or international. Access in the off-season requires availability and income to store food or purchase it. Instability from climate change can arise because of increased variability in production induced by climate change. Extreme events, including excessive temperature at crucial periods in growth, droughts and floods, are a particular threat to stability. All are expected to become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. Climate change is also likely to bring changes in growing seasons with the amount and timing of rainfall and temperature patterns altered. Shortfalls in production, either from extreme events or shifts in growing seasons reduce local availability and therefore local income and access. These effects are likely to fall disproportionately on the vulnerable.
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Local stability can be also be affected by climate change effects out the regions, such as political instability and price volatility. For example, international grain flows have long been seen as a mechanism to at least partially compensate for the increased variability that climate change will bring. The food price spikes that began in 2008 were driven in part by weather events that are likely to become more frequent with climate change. An unfortunate response in some countries was to limit the amount of grain that could be exported, exacerbating the effects on availability and raising prices in other parts of the world. The report of the HLPE on price volatility and food security (2011) has recommendations on how to manage food price volatility that will become ever more relevant as climate change effects become more pronounced.
1.5 Policy messages
This section summarizes the policy messages from chapter 1.
Programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance food security. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently risk using resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate change brings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security programs.
Improvements in productivity are essential to deal with food security challenges. Climate change necessitates research into crops, livestock and systems that are resilient to extreme events. To address nutritional dimension security in the face of climate change, more research is needed on fruit and vegetable productivity as climate changes.
18 Food production systems are extremely diverse, both within individual countries and across national boundaries. Climate change will not affect all systems the same, hence the need to adopt a range of policy and program approaches. Small-scale farms account for a large share of global agricultural land use, rural employment, and often are operated by women. They are more likely to engage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. On the other hand, small-scale operations are less likely to have access to extension services, markets for new inputs and seeds, and loans to finance operations. Policies that address the limits facing small-scale farmers, and that ensure women have opportunities for equal access to information and resources will have important productivity, resiliency and poverty-reducing benefits for food security generally and for dealing with climate change.
Vulnerable communities face negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure) from climate change, the burden of food insecurity is likely to be borne disproportionately by women and girls and there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programs generally and climate-change-specific activities to women.
The report of the HLPE on price volatility and food security (2011) has recommendations on how to manage food price volatility that will become ever more relevant as climate change effects become more pronounced.
Inadequate information is available to deal effectively with many aspects of the food security challenges from climate change. We highlight two.
- The biophysical effects of climate change on plant and animal productivity and stability of production, including the effects on pests and diseases that affect food production and post-harvest marketing system. Most information is available on the large staple crops, less on livestock (including fish), and even less on fruits and vegetables.
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- How crops and livestock grown and management practices differ with scale and gender and will be affected by climate change.
19 2 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY AND NUTRITION TOMORROW: PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE
2.1 Introduction
Chapter one reviewed how the four pillars of food and nutrition security and nutrition have been and are currently affected by climate change in various regions and among various groups, particularly the most vulnerable. This chapter presents perspectives on how future climate changes might affect food and nutrition security including social, economic and biophysical outcomes for vulnerable groups in regions and food systems where climate change risks are high.
Because of the complex dynamics among climate and ecosystem change; food production, distribution, and utilization; general socioeconomic development, institutional change and various dimensions of human wellbeing and poverty, scenarios are used to explore possible future outcomes. “Scenarios are plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.” (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Scenarios fall in the middle ground between facts and speculations where both complexity and uncertainty are substantial. It is often most helpful to use a variety of scenarios, constructed from ranges of plausible drivers, to better understand the range of plausible futures.
20 Scenario development starts with identifying potentially negative outcomes in the future for which more understanding might help to inform better policy changes today. We begin with a short exploration of approaches and models to develop and use climate change scenarios to understand potential future trends of key climate attributes and consequences for sustainable food security. The climate change community has used scenarios extensively to assess the host of economic, social and institutional drivers that determine levels of human-induced GHG emissions (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). Implicit (and sometimes explicit) in these scenarios are changes to the natural, economic and social systems that form the socio-ecological infrastructure critical for economic development, poverty alleviation and human wellbeing. Plausible futures for a range of non-climate variables (population, income, technology) are therefore necessary to add to climate scenarios to develop food security scenarios that include the effects of climate change. Other groups have used scenarios to explore many topics, including ecosystem challenges ((Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), energy futures (Shell International BV, 2008), and water scarcity (Alcamo & Gallopin, 2009).
Vulnerability of food and nutrition security and nutrition to climate change is a function of all the driving factors mentioned above. Biophysical changes from climate change affect food availability through supply impacts (e.g., changes in average yields and increases in variability) and the resulting challenges to livelihoods of producers. Climate change also has important implications for food distribution and access as it requires climate resilient road infrastructure and functioning markets and other social and economic institutions. In addition to these supply side effects, climate change might affect utilization (demand by consumers), not only through effects on their incomes but also consumption behavior. Consequences for food stability could come from increased incidences of extreme events leading to frequent temporary food shortages and stresses on resources’ availability often causing political unrests.
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This chapter begins with a review of scenarios of the temperature and precipitation effects of climate change and their consequences for food security. It then reports on recent scenario exercises that combine socioeconomic and climate change scenarios to assess the effects on other pillars of food and nutrition security and nutrition and various dimensions of human well-being.
2.2 Climate scenarios and their consequences for climate change for food and nutrition security and nutrition
Periodically, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issues assessment reports on the state of our understanding of climate science and interactions with the oceans, land, and human activities20. While the general consequences of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are becoming increasingly better known, great uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play out in magnitudes and in specific locations. At this point there is no single emissions scenario that is viewed as most likely. Furthermore, the climate outputs from different GCMs using identical GHG emissions scenarios differ substantially, with no obvious way to choose among them.
All GCM results have the expected general tendencies of increasing temperature and precipitation21. However, global averages from the GCMs conceal both substantial regional variability and changes in seasonal patterns. Divergence between GCM outcomes is particularly sharp in predicting future precipitation trends. Figure 9 and Figure 10 map the average annual changes in precipitation from the CSIRO and MIROC GCMs using the A1B22 scenario. There are large differences in the two models’ predictions for many regions of the world. For example, although the MIROC scenario results in
21 substantially greater increases in average precipitation globally, there are certain regions, such as the northeast part of Brazil and the eastern half of the United States, where this GCM reports a much drier future.
20 Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between humans and their surroundings, including industrial activities, transportation, and agriculture and other land uses; these models estimate the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. The emissions simulation results of the IAMs are made available to the GCM models as inputs that alter atmospheric chemistry. The end result is a set of estimates of precipitation and temperature values around the globe. 21 See Table A2.3 in Nelson et al., (2010) for information on regional differences in temperature and precipitation outcomes. 22 The A1B scenario is one of several scenarios reported in the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios as part of its third assessment activities (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The A1B scenario has a balance in technological improvements across all energy sources.
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Figure 9. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm)
Figure 10. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, MIROC, A1B (mm)
Source: Nelson et al., (2010) based on downscaled climate data, available at http://futureclim.info.
The scenario uncertainties at global level are magnified at regional and local scales where individual adaptation decisions. This represents a serious challenge to informed policy and decision making everywhere but especially for regions and production systems that are dependent on rainfall (dryland agriculture) and which are home to many of the world’s most vulnerable. Appropriate adaptation strategies would differ significantly depending whether one needs to deal with likely more drought or flooding climate episodes.
2.3 Availability
Climate change effects on agriculture that affect food security are in the first instance the result of productivity loss. Changes in precipitation and temperature will in most locations reduce average yields and increase variability in production. In some locations, a combination of temperature and precipitation changes might result in complete loss of agricultural activity; in a few locations agriculture might become possible. Many studies use climate scenario models’ outcomes in crop growth simulation models to assess potential impacts on yields (Reilly et al., 2003; Parry, Rosenzweig, Iglesias, Livermore, & Fischer, 2004; Cline, 2007; Challinor, Ewert, Arnold, Simelton, & Fraser, 2009; Nelson et al., 2010) with a wide
22 range of potential outcomes depending on crop, region, GCM and climate change scenario. For example, Figure 11 and Figure 12 show how different climate scenarios can result in very different effects on yields. With identical GHG emissions pathways (the A1B scenario), the MIROC GCM climate results in substantial rainfed maize yield declines in the U.S. corn belt and parts of Brazil and substantial yield increases in parts of India while the CSIRO GCM yield effects are less negative and less varied across the globe. Across the range of crops and climate scenarios modeled in Nelson et al. (2010), the yield effects range from increases in a few places to declines of as much as 30 percent. Improved understanding of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity is critical to developing appropriate adaptation strategies. More generally, crop model outputs are likely to understate the effects of climate change because they do not account for pests and disease stresses.
Swaminathan & Kesavan (2012) suggest that among the regions that are likely at risk of future climate change, the arid and semi-arid areas of the tropics in Africa and South Asia and in Mediterranean climate of West Asia and North Africa are the most vulnerable. The results from Cline (2007) also suggest that India and Africa is where the highest productivity declines are expected. Similar results of adverse productivity effects of climate change are predicted for livestock (Neinaber and Han, 2007; Thornton et al., 2009) and marine fisheries (Perry, Low, Ellis, & Reynolds, 2005).
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Figure 11. Yield effects, rainfed maize, CSIRO A1B
Figure 12. Yield effects, rainfed maize, MIROC A1B
Source: Nelson et al., (2010), Figures 9 and 10.
2.4 Access Some studies have attempted to construct scenarios that describe access outcomes by combining what is known about current vulnerability with changes in future availability. A recent study by Ericksen et al. (2011) uses the best available global spatial data on current vulnerability combined with 9 different components of future biophysical vulnerability from climate change23 to construct a domain-based threshold (high and low) assessment of overall vulnerability based on three components of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity, and coping capacity – in regions of interest to the CGIAR’s Research Program 7 (Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security) (see ). For example, Figure 13 shows the vulnerable domains affected by the change in length of growing period (LGP). In the most vulnerable domains, 14.2
23 23 Areas that will experience more than a 5 percent reduction in LGP, Areas that will flip from LGP greater than 120 days in the 2000s to LGP less than 120 days by 2050, Areas that flip from more than 90 reliable crop growing days (RCGD) per year in the 2000s to less than 90 RCGD by 2050, Areas where the average annual temperature flips from less than 8°C in the 2000s to more than 8°C by 2050, Areas where average annual maximum temperature will flip from under 30°C to over 30°C, Areas where the maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently less than 30°C but will flip to more than 30°C by 2050, during the primary growing season, where coefficient of variability of rainfall is currently high, areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 percent or more between 2000 and 2050, where the amount of rainfall per rainy day increases by 10 percent between 2000 and 2050.
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million hectares will likely have a significant change in LGP with a total population affected of 401 million. They find that other effects of climate change will affect vulnerable regions and populations in different ways.
Figure 13. Vulnerability domains where there is greater than 5% change in length of growing period (LGP).
The assessments described above have important deficiencies. Most of them do not account for adaptation, either autonomous for anticipatory. For example, the Erickson, et al, report combines future climate outcomes with today’s vulnerabilities. The studies tend to focus on average shifts rather than changes in variability and extreme events. And they focus exclusively on the challenges from climate change without considering changes in socioeconomic factors (income, population, government policies and programs, etc.)
2.5 Use
A few studies have included socioeconomic as well as climate change drivers and allowed for some elements of adaptation. We report results from one of these to indicate the range of plausible outcomes. Nelson et al., (2010) combine a range of crop productivity scenarios based on 5 different climate futures with three combinations of population and GDP futures (low population and high GDP growth, high population and low GDP growth and an intermediate combination of population and GDP growth) to assess the range of plausible outcomes for food security and human well-being. This study uses both proxy (per capita income, average kilocalorie availability per day) and direct measures of food security (number of malnourished children under five) (Riely F., Mock, Cogill, Bailey, & Kenefick, 1999; Webb P. et al., 2006).
24 A central policy message is the importance of economic development in addressing vulnerability. In low- income developing countries today, average kilocalorie availability is only two-thirds of the availability in the richest countries. With high per capita income growth and no climate change, availability in 2050 reaches almost 85 percent of that in the developed countries. With the high population and low GDP growth scenario, however, average availability declines in all regions. For middle-income developing countries, the low population-high GDP-growth scenario results in a 50 percent decline in the number of malnourished children; under the high population-low GDP-growth scenario, the decline is only 10 percent. For low-income developing countries, the decline is 36.6 percent under the low population-high GDP-growth scenario, but under the high population-low GDP-growth scenario the number of malnourished children increases by more than 18 percent—an increase of almost 17 million children.
Climate change exacerbates the challenges in reducing the number of malnourished children. Climate change increases the number of malnourished children in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future by
Draft V0 for E‐Consultation about 10 percent for the low population-high GDP-growth scenario and 9 percent for the high populationlow GDP-growth scenario. In low-income countries under the low population-high GDP-growth scenario, climate change increases the number of malnourished children by 9.8 percent; under the high populationlow GDP-growth scenario, by 8.7 percent. Across the climate scenarios, the differences in price (and other) outcomes are relatively small, because international trade flow partially compensate. For example, changes in developed country net cereal exports between 2010 and 2050 range from an increase of 5 million mt in the perfect mitigation scenario to a decline of almost 140 million mt. The trade flow changes partially offset local climate change productivity effects, allowing regions of the world with less negative effects to supply those with more negative effects. Hence, another central policy message is the importance of relatively free movement of food across international borders as partial adaptation to climate change.
None of these global scenario efforts attempt to address distributional issues within countries and the possibility that climate change might affect the vulnerable disproportionately although this is a plausible effect.
2.6 Stability
Quantitative scenario exercises of the effects of climate change have not dealt with the consequences of increased variability from climate change. The principal explanation for this is that although climate scientists are confident that increased variability will occur, based on the underlying physics of the atmosphere, the GCM outputs have not been designed to provide the necessary data on variability needed by the crop models that are used to assess climate effects on agricultural productivity. There is a critical need for transdisciplinary efforts to address this lacunae.
2.7 Data and modeling issues
Although our ability to model the complexities of both the biophysical and socioeconomic aspects of climate change to produce plausible scenarios has advanced dramatically in the past few decades, there are still major shortcomings that affect our ability to understand the consequences of climate change for vulnerable regions and groups. While the GCMs are generally consistent in their predictions of higher temperatures globally, they differ dramatically in the precipitation outcomes. Crop models are able to accurately reproduce crop responses to weather and temperature inputs within existing ranges, but their ability to perform in the range of future outcomes is much less certain. And they perform poorly in assessing the effects of changing pest and disease pressures that might arise from climate change.
25 Models of socioeconomic scenarios, especially those that include climate change effects, are in some ways more complicated than either climate or crop models. They must take into account biophysical effects and include them as part of the complex behavior of human systems. In many ways they are the weakest link in our understanding of the vulnerability of food systems to climate change.
Finally all of these modeling efforts suffer from the poor state of data resources available on human and natural systems on our planet.
2.8 Policy Messages
Weaknesses in all three types of models – climate, crop and socioeconomic – used to construct scenarios of the effects of climate change and other drivers on the vulnerable mean great uncertainty at global, national and local scales about policy and program responses to climate change. Significant
Draft V0 for E‐Consultation efforts are needed to improve the functionality of these models individuals as well as their interactions. In addition, the data needed to construct these models are of poor quality and data collection efforts need significant resources.
Climate change effects on the vulnerable are significant but are by no means the only threats to sustainable food security. Sustainable development efforts that lead to broad-based economic growth are essential to addressing the needs of vulnerable people and regions. Given the uncertainties in local and regional outcomes of climate change, policies and programs that are based on specific climate scenarios could potentially be counterproductive. Rather efforts should be based on activities that provide both sustainable economic growth and increase resiliency to a wide range of potential climate change threats are most appropriate. This combination of policy goals has sometimes been referred to as climate-smart agriculture. An added element, discussed in the next chapter, is to develop and disseminate practices that reduce the growth in emissions from agriculture, low-emissions development strategies.
26 3 CHAPTER 3: ADAPTATION: RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
Since the ideas included in this section are not clear, the message that the document is trying to communicate is not understood. Moreover, we find that some of the affirmations in the text are not evidence-based and many of the topics included do not have international consensus.
[This chapter currently is in annotated outline form. The writing team would like feedback on whether we have identified the relevant topics to be covered.]
3.1 Introduction
• Adaptation is the response by different actors to present and future threats and opportunities from climate change. We interpret it to mean adjusting the social, economic and biophysical aspects of food production to respond to the threats (and opportunities) of climate change and to increase resilience in the face of greater climate variability. The report recognizes the particular adaptation needs and vulnerabilities of the poorest regions and populations
• The food system has always adapted to changing circumstances and adaptation to a new climate is a specific example of a broader range of responses to change that agriculture will confront in the coming years, in particular the serious current challenges posed by poverty and inequalities, and on other hand, the growth in income and population in today’s developing countries
• Autonomous versus planned, and reactive versus anticipatory, adaptation
• Adaptation to climate change involves general measures that increase the resilience of the food system (interpreted broadly to mean production, processing, distribution and retail) to any perturbation, as well as specific measures to cope with the particular stresses caused by the changing climate.
• Successful adaptation will require new practices and alterations in livelihood strategies. It will also require changes of behaviour by all elements of the private sector, retailers and intermediaries in the food chain, agri-business and the financial sector. It will require action by governments and international organisations, and also by civil society, in particular those concerned with food security, hunger and development.
• It involves identifying present vulnerabilities and potential opportunities, promoting the better utilisation and dissemination of existing information and knowledge including local knowledge and alternative practices, investing in the generation of new information and local innovation, as well as reforms to the national and international governance of the food system
• Adaptation and mitigation efforts cannot be fully effective unless women’s roles in the food
27 system are recognized; their constraints and concerns integrated in climate change strategies through women’s engagement and participation as a key stakeholder. At the same time it is also a mistake to treat women as a homogenous group; interventions to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability will have to be contextual in approach (Terry 2009). While women are generally more vulnerable to climate shocks, a truly gendered approach is essential to ensure that vulnerable men are also included in any analysis of adaptation and mitigation.
• Adaptation strategies that are not gender sensitive are problematic on several fronts. They may serve to exacerbate existing inequalities between men and women within households and communities. High temperature resistant varieties of crops are usually water intensive which could add to women’s burdens (UNDP 2009). Men and women have differential perception of climate change risks. Thus,
Draft V0 for E‐Consultation women’s priorities may not be addressed if they are not participating in the planning stage. Furthermore, it is possible that sub-optimal adaptation strategies are adopted by households to preserve existing gender norms as opposed to risk minimization.
• Overview of rest of chapter
3.2 Lessons from recent adaptation
• Recent increases in global temperature that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have already led to some changes in agricultural practices, though these are as yet relatively minor and also affected by other drivers. Examples include the northward shift in maize production in the U.S. and rice production in China. Do these provide useful models of adaptation, and its limits?
• The response to some recent non-climate change events may help planning for adaptation. For example, some regions have recently seen drastic reductions in the water available for agriculture due to the exhaustion of aquifers. The response to this may inform the response to future reductions in precipitation.
• To what degree have private, national and international research agendas been realigned to address adaptation? What further changes are needed?
3.3 Anticipatory strategies and options for adapting to climate change
• The focus in this section should be activities that contribute to sustainable food security while creating and supporting resilient livelihoods for people engaged in agriculture
3.3.1 Availability
• In the context of crop production, farmers will need to should consider the adoption of various anticipatory strategies:
Planting different varieties or species of crops Sowing crops at different times of year Changing irrigation practices (including water conservation, use of marginal resources,
28 rainwater harvesting and capture) Altering agronomic practices (for example reduced tillage to reduce water loss, incorporation of manures and compost, and other land use techniques such as cover cropping that increase soil organic matter and hence water retention of value both in times of drought and flood).
• It is not yet possible to attribute unambiguously increased frequencies of extreme events (droughts, floods or hurricanes) to anthropogenic climate change but nevertheless responses to recent catastrophes may help prepare for what models predict is very likely to be an early consequence of climate change.
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Response to hurricanes and typhoons. In Nicaragua, after the passage of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a study showed how agroecological practices such as crop rotation, green manure, use of natural fertilizers, cover ditches, crop diversification, burning renunciation, etc. preserved an average of 40% more topsoil, had greater moisture retention, and lost 18% less arable land (Holt-Gimenéz cited in de Schutter, 2010)
Humanitarian responses to drought and floods
Changing post-harvest practices such as grain drying and storage procedures
• Similar challenges will face livestock producers whose breeds will be directly affected by climate change and indirectly through effects on feedstocks and forage
There are particular issues for pastoralist communities in semi-desert environments which are likely to be particularly susceptible to climate change; for example traditional transhumance routes may no longer be feasible
Adaptation strategies for ruminants (involving for example husbandry, diets and stocking ratios) in some types of production systems should seek simultaneously to reduce their role as a major source of GHGs, a topic covered in Chapter 4.
• Climate change is likely to see the opening up of new fisheries (for example in the increasingly ice-free arctic oceans) as well as movements of existing fisheries [S American sardines?]. Those working in capture fisheries will need to be aware of and be able to respond to these changes. • Food producers will need to be aware of the increased risks of rare events and how they can reduce their damaging effects
Drought
Floods, salt water intrusion, storms
Effects of fire which may be directly affected by climate change as well as indirectly by mitigation policies such as increased agroforestry
• Because of the multifaceted nature of adaptation and the breadth of responses related to increasing livelihood resilience, useful assistance to producers may take many forms.
Economic diversification for increasing livelihood options
Weather early warning systems
Agricultural extension
29 Infrastructure, such as roads, post-harvest storage, markets
• There are many initiatives towards improving the resilience of agricultural livelihoods already underway that should be examined. The CG system is doing x, development organizations are doing y, bilateral and multilateral donors are doing z. • Special emphasis is placed on the food security needs of the most vulnerable.
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• Encourage women’s leadership in adaptation and mitigation planning and decision making at all levels including national level planning for climate change.
• The environmental costs of converting land to agriculture are increasingly large everywhere (especially in terms of greenhouse emissions, discussed in Chapter 4) so adaptation strategies that result in more land conversion are likely to especially costly. It is likely that more food will need to be produced from the same amount of land with less impact on the environment.
• More food can be produced on existing farmland using existing knowledge if food producers are provided with the resources to respond to price signals and if appropriate investments are undertaken in economic and physical infrastructure (market reform and access to markets). Special attention should be paid to encouraging that women are not disadvantaged, both for efficiency and equity reasons.
• Investment in research is needed into producing crops, animals, and fish with higher yields, higher input efficiencies, and ability to withstand more frequent extreme events. This will require more funding of often neglected subjects such as agronomy and soil science that can improve productivity, resilience and efficiency
• Advantage should be taken of “leap-frogging” technologies to allow low-income country food systems to jump to modern sustainable practices that are more resilient to climate change and spread existing farmer practices that have worked in one location to areas with similar environmental profiles today or likely profiles in the future as climate change progresses. Women are often at the forefront of natural resource management. This knowledge should be harnessed.
• The rules governing international trade in food as well as issues of subsidies, tariffs and import restrictions need to adjusted to facilitate the likely increase in food supply shocks in different parts of the world. It is necessary a prompt conclusion of the WTO Doha Round Agriculture Negotiations, in accordance with its Mandate, to strengthen international disciplines on agriculture trade policies.
• There is a great need for revitalised extension services that provide advice and training that includes climate change adaptation. In developed countries there are good models of joint public-private funded extension services that already see adaptation as part of their brief, while in least developed countries initiatives such as farmer-field schools could be extended to include more adaptation strategies (noting there are many other advantages of these extension models today). Information exchange at local, regional and global levels is critical.
• Measures can be taken to reduce global food price volatility (see CFS HLPE ##).
3.3.2 Access
• Lack of access to food is economic, although social exclusion (for example on grounds of gender, class or caste) is also a dimension of access or lack thereof. The access pillar of food security
30 also includes preference, where social or cultural preferences cannot be satisfied. War and civil unrest and other physical barriers can also impede or reduce access to food.
• Investment in agriculture and the larger rural economy has a key role in economic development as it leads to more food, increased rural incomes, and often to the improved well-being of groups such as women that are hard to reach through other interventions. Decades of lack of investment in low-income country agriculture needs to be reversed.
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• Special attention needs to be paid to reducing excess price volatility, especially where it affects the most vulnerable communities.
• Low-income countries with poorly developed markets are likely to require some protection from exposure to world markets (special measures in WTO parlance) and should be given time to transition to full participation in the global food system.
• Foreign investment can bring much needed capital to food production in poor countries, but too often takes the form of “land grabs” which are poorly transparent and fails to respect local land rights or exploits the lack of developed land rights in many least developed countries, especially in Africa.
• The challenges of maintaining food supplies to larger urban populations in least developed countries needs particular attention.
• Safety nets will continue to be required to help countries experiencing famine. Looking to the future increasing frequencies of extreme events (including from climate change but possibly from other sources) may increase the risk of famine, though sustainable development if successful
3.3.3 Use
• Levels of consumption of food with high input demands are environmentally unsustainable and often are damaging to human health. Research is needed on levers of demand modification. Informed debate on issues of consumption needs to be facilitated amongst all consumers.
3.3.4 Stability
• In some production systems, insurance can be a means of buffering against loss due to the likely increasing likelihood of extreme events.
• In developing countries where financial insurance may not be available or be too expensive, or in production systems where insurance might not be appropriate, other risk reduction mechanisms must be prioritized.
3.4 Sectoral approaches to adaptation
3.4.1 The private sector
3.4.1.1 Agribusiness
• To take a long-term view of investment in food production and to commit resources to producing crops and livestock breeds better able to withstand the challenges of a changing climate
31 • To develop mutually beneficial new methods of working with smallholder food producers where some of the risk of increased climate variability is borne by the private sector
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3.4.1.2 Food chain & retail
• Prepare for the increased frequency of extreme events with broader geographical extent, with the consequent need to
• Diversify sourcing
• Modify where necessary “just-in-time” stocking to allow greater resilience in the food chain
3.4.1.3 Financial sector
• Innovation in insurance for food production in least developed countries, both for individual food producers (via microfinance initiatives) and for governments (sovereign insurance). Ensure that programs are not biased against women.
• Develop (in partnership with regulatory authorities) economically efficient commodity market trading mechanisms that are designed to damp rather than amplify the volatility caused by climatic production shocks
• In partnership with national and international development and green banks to develop mechanisms for attracting capital into investment in climate change adaptation.
• See also insights from the CFS study on price volatility
3.4.2 Governments and international organizations
• Provide the information base and risk assessment that allows good policy to be developed
• Improve information gathering, monitoring, data analysis and dissemination making use of transformational ICT technologies
• Invest in cost-effective civil engineering projects to increase protection of agricultural lands from extreme events. In cases where such investment is uneconomic land use planning will be required to foster types of agriculture more resilient to climate variability. Ensure infrastructure investment for agriculture and agricultural markets is resilient to climate change.
• Develop integrated land-use policies, in particular to optimise the use of scarce water resources at catchment and aquifer scale. Adaptive management procedures need to be developed, and the legal and treaty basis to deal with trans-boundary conflicts put into place
• Contribute to increasing the skills base to allow food producers to adapt to climate change
• Invest in the fundamental and applied research base to improve climate change adaptation (including through animal and plant breeding, agricultural engineering, agronomy and husbandry, soil science, aquiculture, agricultural economics and the relevant social sciences).
• Increase resilience by provision of safety nets to farmers and others whose livelihoods are at risk due to climate change; ensure that any interventions are non-discriminatory to vulnerable groups
• Develop national disaster management policies, including insurance schemes for farmers to
32 protect against natural disasters
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3.4.3 The research community
• In addition to the general need for better climate models, there is a particularly urgent need for improved impact models, and for a better comparative understanding of the outputs of current models.
• There must be a continued refocusing of research from just higher yield to a more complex set traits to optimise, in particular increased efficiency and increased resilience.
• Climate change will require crops with enhanced resistance to drought, flooding and salt-water intrusion (both through seawater flooding and from groundwater). o Methane emissions from flooded rice crops is a major GHG while rice yields will be affected by drought and salt water intrusion. This is an example where research to address adaptation and mitigation simultaneously is critical.
• The response of crop and livestock biotic stressors (for example weeds, pests, pathogens and diseases) to climate change will be complex and affected by other drivers, in particular how land use the adverse effects of climate change affects the emergence of new diseases and other problems, and how globalisation increases the risk of the movement of harmful species throughout the globe. Development of varieties and breeds with enhanced resistance is a general good but the research base must be capable of reacting quickly to novel and unexpected biotic challenges that will arise for many reasons including climate change.
• Increasing resilience through the development of new agronomic strategies o Scalable forms of precision agriculture o New forms of mixed cropping, livestock/crop integration and terrestrial/aquacultural integration to provide food security to low income farmers in a more variable climate
• There is a joint social and natural science challenge to understand the role of traditional foods (for example millets) in providing nutritional diversity and better diets, and how this may be affected by climate change and what adaptation strategies are possible.
• The possible effects of climate change on capture fisheries is poorly understood, and research on this and how climate change should be integrated into ecosystem and adaptive management approaches to fisheries is required Civil society
• By civil society we mean national and international NGOs, social movements and organizations, workers unions, gender organizations. To act as advocates for the critical needs of the food system to adapt to climate change, and to champion the rights and needs of those whose voices are less likely to be heard through
• For major humanitarian NGOs to invest in agricultural adaptation as part of their strategies for sustainable development, and in partnership with governmental organisations to plan for the consequences of the increased frequency of extreme events
• As some major foundations have pioneered in recent years, to develop innovative partnerships with the private sector to translate advances in science into products and interventions that benefit, and can be afforded by, low-income food producers.
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Cross-cutting issues
• Ensure adaptation measures provide multiple benefits; for example that also contribute towards mitigation, improve rural incomes, foster sustainable development, empower women and disadvantaged minorities.
• An enhanced and more informed debate about the risks of climate change and the need for adaptation is needed amongst civil society. Such discourse will be essential to allow national and international decision makers to make investments, especially at times of austerity, that will ensure food security in future decades.
3.5 Policy Messages
• General food system policies designed to ensure demand does not outstrip supply, that national and international governance of the food system is improved, that price volatility is constrained within acceptable limits, that waste is reduced, and that the food system is made more sustainable will all result in a more resilient food system, better able to withstand climate change shocks.
• The communities whose food security is most at risk from the effects of climate change will most often be in least developed countries, be the poorest sections of rich societies, and will be groups disadvantaged in some societies, for example because of gender. Climate-change adaptation needs to be especially tailored to these groups.
• The likelihood of the world acting together to keep average temperature rises below 2°C is small and decreasing and rises of the order of 4°C are more likely. Though climate change will benefit food production in some areas the net effect over all regions is likely to be very negative. There is much that can be done to adapt agriculture to changing climate using existing knowledge about the social, economic and biophysical aspects of food production, and dissemination and implementation of this knowledge is critical. However, the magnitude and pace of the changes likely to occur will also require new knowledge and investment in the relative social and natural sciences should be a priority.
• Successfully adaptation of global agriculture and the food system to expected climate change will require mobilisation of the most effective practices from all modes of agriculture, realising that no signal solution or set of solutions will be appropriate everywhere. Techniques drawn from conventional, agroecological, organic and high-technology food production will all need to be deployed. A pluralistic, evidence-based approach, sensitive to environmental and social context, and to different value systems, is essential.
34 4 AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS The approach that is used in this section is not acceptable since it undermines and contradicts the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, mainly the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. In this sense, it is important to take into account that only Annex I countries have binding reduction commitments. It is also noted that the document makes a negative appraisal of the relationship between climate change and agriculture, not taking into account that, for this sector, it is a priority to meet the demand for food so as to achieve food security, in a context aiming at the achievement of sustainable development.
4.1 Introduction
As Chapter 1 reported, crop and livestock agriculture globally is responsible for about 15 percent of total emissions today and land use change (especially deforestation), much of which is driven by expansion of agricultural area, adds another 15 to 17 percent. Although developing country emissions are low today as Chapter 1 reported, their agricultural and land use change emissions will likely grow rapidly unless lowe- missions strategies that also contribute to sustainable food security are actively pursued. Agriculture is unique in that some practices can capture CO2 emissions from other sectors and sequester carbon above and below-ground. Most of these practices can also contribute to food security and resilience, and if targeted properly can contribute to poverty reduction. This chapter discusses the contribution of agriculture to total GHG emissions and the role of mitigation options in agriculture both to meet growing food demand and reduce deforestation, and synergies and tradeoffs of mitigation and adaptation activities.
4.2 Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
Agricultural activities emit greenhouse gases in three ways – direct and indirect24 emissions from agricultural practices, and land use change caused by expansion of agricultural activities. Direct emissions from agricultural production include CH4 emissions from flooded rice fields and livestock, N2O emissions from the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, and CO2 emissions from loss of soil organic carbon in croplands as a result of agricultural practices and in pastures as a result of increased grazing intensity. This chapter focuses on direct emissions and land use change as these constitute the bulk of agriculture based emissions.
With past expansion of agricultural area, substantial CO2 emissions occurred from soils rich in organic carbon and with farming practices that resulted in conversion of organic carbon to CO2. Today, net direct CO2 emissions from agricultural activities are estimated to be very small globally but land use change driven by agricultural expansion still contributes sizeable CO2 emissions, both from above and below ground sources. Thus, unlike other sectors such as energy supply, industry, and transport, in which GHG emissions are dominated by CO2, direct agricultural emissions of GHGs are dominated by CH4 and N2O.
Farming practices can reduce or increase the amount of carbon sequestered in a field. Net CO2 emissions from croplands are expected in the regions where agricultural management is extensive and input of organic materials cannot balance decomposition. These management practices also lead to reduced resilience since soil organic matter holds nutrients and soil moisture, making it available over longer periods of time. Since the late 1970s, soil organic carbon has increased in some parts of the world with growing nutrient inputs, breeding advances and improvements in management (Cai, 2012). For example, in China soil organic carbon in croplands increased by about 400 Tg C during the period of
24 Indirect emissions include CO2 from production and transport of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, and from energy consumption for tillage, irrigation, fertilization, and harvest. In GHG accounting, indirect agricultural emissions are included in emissions from the other sectors (industry, transport, and energy supply). Only direct emissions from agricultural production are classified as agricultural emissions in the IPCC accounting framework.
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1980-2000 (Huang & Sun, 2006). A similar trend was observed in the United States (Ogle et al., 2010). The technical potential for increasing soil carbon (and improving soil quality) is discussed below. An important policy message is of the importance of finding and getting farmers to adopt practices that can increase carbon sequestration and reduce the rate of conversion of forests to cultivated areas, without harming food security.
Agricultural CH4 emissions accounted for more than 50 percent of CH4 emissions from human activities (IPCC, 2007). Agricultural CH4 emissions today are roughly one third from flooded rice production (28-44 Tg CH4 yr-1), and two thirds from ruminants (73-94 Tg CH4 yr-1).25 Monsoon Asia produces more than 90 percent of global rice production, thus accounting for an equivalent share of CH4 emissions from the world’s rice fields. Since harvested area of irrigated rice is growing slowly, the increase in CH4 emissions from rice fields is expected to be small. Furthermore, rice fields are converted at least partially from wetlands, which also emit CH4, but are classified into natural emissions. Hence, the effective net emissions growth from irrigated rice will be even smaller than IPCC estimates.
In addition to their effects on N2O emissions (discussed below), nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly ammonium fertilizers, inhibit the CH4 oxidation by soils, contributing to the increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration.
In the future, most increases in agricultural CH4 emissions are likely to be ruminant-based. Ruminant numbers increased substantially in the last 50 years, particularly in East Asia, and are expected to further increase, especially in developing countries. Population growth of all kinds of animals means an increase in animal manure, which is another important source of CH4. Hence policies and programs to manage livestock CH4 emissions will be particularly important.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an intermediate product or a by-product of nitrogen transformation processes. Agriculture accounts for more than 60 percent of anthropogenic N2O emissions (IPCC, 2007). On average, about 1 percent of N applied to soil is emitted directly as N2O (IPCC, 2007a). Both chemical and organic nitrogen fertilization results in N2O emissions, with emission rates varying by cropping systems, climate, and other variables. For example, the rate varies from near zero in some soils to 22 percent in an Australian sulfate acid soil (Denmead et al., 2007). In flooded rice fields the emissions rate is only about one third of that in uplands. N2O emissions increase with precipitation (Lu et al., 2006). N2O is also produced and emitted from nitrogen lost from agricultural lands through runoff, leaching, NH3 volatilization, and dissolved organic nitrogen. N2O emissions from nitrogen lost from croplands are called indirect emissions and are estimated to be similar in magnitude to direct emissions. Animals do not directly emit N2O, but livestock manure is a substantial source of N2O emissions, another reason for the importance of managing livestock to reduce emissions. 4.3 GHG emissions from land use change
Terrestrial ecosystems, including above- and below-ground components are a huge carbon pool. A recent estimate is that 350-550 Pg C is stored in vegetation (Prentice et al., 2001) and 1500-2400 Pg C in soil (Batjes, 1996). There is a very large annual CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, thought to be 123 Pg C. Therefore, a small change in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems or in CO2 exchange rate between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere will result in a substantial change in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
25 Animal manure is another substantial source of CH4, but estimated emissions vary greatly with assumptions about management and duration of storage.
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The input and output of CO2 between stable ecosystems and the atmosphere is almost balanced, but land use change disrupts this balance. Converting natural ecosystems, particularly forestlands, wetlands and peatlands, which are rich in organic carbon, to agriculture and pasture use results in losses of carbon not only due to the removal of above ground biomass, but also conversion of soil organic matter. Generally, carbon in the top layer of soil decreases about 40-70 percent of the original when a new equilibrium is established after converting a natural soil into cropland soil. Total CO2 emissions due to land use change are estimated at approximately 156 Pg C during the period of 1850-2000 (Houghton, 2003). land use change also influences the emissions of CH4 and N2O. It has been estimated that CH4 emissions have been reduced by 10 percent due to the area reduction of wetlands (Houweling et al., 2003). Converting land to flooded rice production increases CH4 emissions, both because non-irrigated lands extract CH4 from the atmosphere (estimated to be 30 Tg CH4 yr-1) and anaerobic decomposition in flooded rice production releases CH4. N2O emissions also increase when natural ecosystems are converted into croplands or pasture but no reliable estimates of their magnitude exist.
The dramatic effect of land use change on GHG emissions26 emphasizes the importance of finding agricultural development strategies that reduce the conversion of non-agricultural land to agricultural activities.
4.4 Mitigation options in agriculture
The IPCC (2007) estimates a technical mitigation potential globally of 5.5-6.0 Pg CO2-eq yr-1 from agriculture by 2030. Soil carbon sequestration accounts for 89 percent of this potential. The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils was estimated to be 50 to 66 percent of the historic carbon loss (Lal, 2004). Techniques to exploit this on-farm potential include: Increasing organic inputs into croplands such as crop residue incorporation and application of organic manure
Reduction of soil disturbances with practices such as less or no tillage, and reducing grazing Intensity
Restoration of degraded croplands with practices such as erosion control, set-aside, and land use Change
Re-flooding of peatlands
Increase in crop yields by good managements of nutrients and irrigation.
Agroforestry
Essentially each of these practices can also increase productivity and climate change resilience. It is important to devise public policies and programs that reduce existing disincentives and provide innovative incentives to development and dissemination of specific practices of relevance to those in charge of farm operations.
Mitigation of CH4 emissions from agriculture contributes about 9 percent of the technical agricultural mitigation potential (IPCC, 2007). Avoiding water saturation in the non-rice growth season and shortening continuous flooding duration during the rice growing season are the most effective options for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice fields. Mid-season drainage is a practice to interrupt continuous flooding. Delaying incorporation of fresh organic matter until after flooding and incorporation of fresh organic matter in the off-rice season reduces CH4 emissions from rice fields effectively. It is estimated that 4.1 Tg CH4 yr-
26 Other negative consequences include loss of biodiversity and changes in ground and surface water availability.
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1 could be mitigated if fields were drained at least once during the growing season, and a further 4.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 if rice straw was applied off season (Yan, et al. 2009). Selection of rice cultivars with low root exudation rates could also be an option for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice fields.
IRRI is working with national research institutes and farmers in South and Southeast Asia on alternate wetting and drying practices in irrigated rice fields to reduce CH4 emissions. The SRI (System of Rice Intensification) system in India reduces the amount of flooding of irrigated rice, likely reducing methane emissions as well as saving water and possibly reducing N2O emissions.
It does not appear to be easy to mitigate CH4 emissions from ruminants on a per animal basis, but improving feeding practices and pasture productivity, adding feeding specific agents and dietary additives, and animal breeding would mitigate CH4 emissions per unit of livestock product (milk and meat). There is substantial potential for mitigating CH4 emissions from animal manures. Aeration of animal manure during storage and shortening of manure storage are effective ways to mitigate CH4 emissions from animal manures.
IPCC (2007) estimates that the technical mitigation of N2O emissions from agriculture is a small share of (2 percent) of the estimated total agricultural mitigation potential. Increasing the efficiency of use of nitrogen fertilizers would allow reduction in use. This would mitigate N2O emissions from crop production maintain or even increase crop yields. And increasing nitrogen use efficiency also reduces the emissions associated with production of nitrogenous fertilizer. Alternating dry and wet soil is a key driver of N transformations to N2O in irrigated fields so avoiding unnecessary irrigation and drainage will reduce N2O emissions from irrigated croplands. Application of nitrification inhibitors with N fertilizers has also been demonstrated to be effective. The effects of controlled or slow release fertilizers on N2O emissions are uncertain.
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) strategies need to take into account equity issues as well as men and women’s differentiated dependence on forest resources. It is estimated that globally, more than 1.6 billion people depend upon forests as their main source of livelihood (World Bank, 2008). Women are more dependent than men are on forests and natural resources but at the same time suffer from a lack of secure property rights and from systematic discrimination in access to services. In several regions of the world, women’s roles include conservation and maintenance of forest resources which provides an opportunity through the REDD mechanism to compensate and provide support to their efforts. There may also be employment opportunities for women within the REDD framework (A concern, however, is that women may not be a position to take full advantage of the benefits offered by REDD due to their lower literacy and formal education skills (UNDP 2009).
Women’s participation in climate change negotiations and decision making has been low due to several factors -- their low levels of education, limited access to information, poor visibility in public spaces, and general exclusion from political processes (several studies cited in Brown 2011). While increasing women’s engagement in mitigation strategies could lead to improved outcomes, Mwangi et al (2011) suggests that mixed-sex groups could be one solution for strengthening forest management.
4.5 Synergies and tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation
Synergies and tradeoffs are common in agricultural sector. Therefore, before adaption or mitigation options are put into practice, the effects on climate change and food security shall be evaluated comprehensively and in lifetime.
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Some synergies and tradeoffs have been observed in the adaption to climate change. For instance, with the increase in temperature, rice production is shifted from south to north in China. This farmers’ spontaneous adaptation makes a great contribution to food security in China. However, it makes water shortage even more serious in Northeastern China.
[Discussion of the pros and cons of biofuels to be added about here.]
Increasing soil organic carbon storage by good management practices is generally synergistic because it both captures atmospheric CO2 and increases soil fertility. However, in the case of flooded rice fields, an increase in soil organic carbon would increase CH4 emissions, particularly if the soil organic carbon is increased by incorporation of crop straw. Re-flooding peatlands or wetlands could prevent depletion of organic matter, but stimulate CH4 emissions.
Irrigation management regimes that increase CH4 emissions reduce N2O emissions and vice versa. For example, mid-season drainage mitigates CH4 emissions, but increases N2O emissions. However, even though N2O has a higher global warming potential (GWP), the increase in N2O is not enough to offset the reduction in GWP from methane.
Nitrogen fertilization dominates anthropogenic N2O emissions from agricultural sector. However, longterm experiments showed that synthetic fertilizer N significantly reduces the declining rate of soil organic carbon in agricultural soils (Ladha et al., 2011).
To meet the growing demand, food production must increase either by improving crop yields from the land already under cultivation (intensification) or expanding land area cultivated (extensification) or both. All these options for meeting food demands will increase GHGs emissions. Relatively, intensification, however, is more effective to mitigate the increase in GHG emissions from agriculture (Burney et al., 2010).
4.6 Policy messages
Developing country agricultural and land use change emissions will likely grow rapidly unless low emissions strategies that also contribute to sustainable food security are actively pursued. Agriculture is unique in that some practices can capture CO2 emissions from other sectors and sequester carbon above and below-ground. GHG emissions from agriculture can be mitigated by good management practices and essentially every one of these practices can also increase productivity and climate change resilience. It is important to devise national and international policies and programs that reduce existing disincentives and provide innovative incentives strategies to development and dissemination of specific practices of relevance to those in charge of farm operations. It is also important to develop and disseminate practices that can increase carbon sequestration and reduce the rate of conversion of forests to cultivated areas, without harming food security. The dramatic effect of land use change on GHG emissions emphasizes the importance of finding agricultural development strategies that reduce the conversion of non-agricultural land to agricultural activities.
Since demand for livestock products (meat, milk, and eggs) will likely grow, policies and programs that directly or indirectly contribute to reduced emissions of both CH4 and N2O per unit of output are especially important.
Policies and programs that increase nitrogen use efficiency have multiple benefits – reducing farm input costs, direct and indirect GHG emissions, and off-farm damage to the environment.
39 5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICIES AND ACTIONS
5.1 Introduction
In a report of this nature, it is not possible to provide detailed policy recommendations for specific countries, regions, or groups. Actions that are entirely appropriate in some locations and countries would be completely inappropriate in others. Instead we present a series of policy messages that are intended to provide guidance for developing nationally-relevant policies and programs and that can also assist international efforts.
5.2 Climate change responses should be complementary to, not independent of, activities that are needed for sustainable food security
Programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance food security. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently risk using resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate change brings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security efforts.
Meeting food security goals will need substantially more investments in public sector research and extension. Climate change will mean both that additional research outputs will be needed to offset its general productivity reducing effects, to maintain productivity in the face of more frequent extreme events, and to adjust to differing responses of crops, livestock, and management systems to climate change. There is an urgent need to increase international cooperation and undertake these investments quickly, because of improvements will take time to development and deliver to farmers.
To make sure that productivity and resilience enhancing technologies are adopted, extension programs should target those who are making the management decisions, which in many cases are women. This is important for enhancing food security generally but becomes more important in the case of climate change as women’s activities and livelihoods are likely to be disproportionately affected. Small-scale farms account for a large share of global agricultural land use, and rural employment today, and often are operated by women. They are more likely to engage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. Private sector research is more likely to benefit large-scale farms. Policies and public investments that address the limits facing small-scale farmers, and that ensure women have opportunities for equal access to information and resources will have important productivity, resiliency and poverty-reducing benefits for food security generally and for dealing with climate change. The differential effects of climate change on crops will likely alter the optimal design of extension systems.
Vulnerable communities need special attention in efforts to enhance food security. Climate change is likely to bring more negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure). The burden is likely to be borne disproportionately by women and girls so there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programs generally and climate-change-specific activities to women.
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5.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation require national activities and global coordination
Climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture must should be implemented on millions of farms and undertaken by people who are often the most vulnerable, in accordance with the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change. Local lessons learned are most valuable when shared. Supporting activities require global coordination as well as national programs.
5.3.1 Adaptation
Climate change will shift existing climates to new locations across political boundaries as well as create climates that don’t currently exist. Shifting existing cultivars and animals to new locations requires an understanding of how existing genetic material performs under a wide range of agroclimatic conditions, improved understanding of technical attributes, global information sharing and the institutional mechanisms to move genetic material across borders.
The communities whose food security is most at risk from the effects of climate change will most often be in least developed countries, be the poorest sections of rich societies, and will be groups disadvantaged in some societies, for example because of gender. Climate-change adaptation needs to be especially tailored to these groups, in accordance with national law, policies and priorities.
There is much that can be done to adapt agriculture to changing climate using existing knowledge about the social, economic and biophysical aspects of food production, and dissemination and implementation of this knowledge is critical. However, the magnitude and pace of the changes likely to occur will also require new knowledge and investment in the relevant social and natural sciences should be a priority.
Successful adaptation of global agriculture and the food system to climate change will require mobilisation of the most effective practices from all modes of agriculture, realising that no single solution or set of solutions will be appropriate everywhere. Techniques drawn from conventional, agro-ecological, organic and high-technology food production will all need to be evaluated for their location-specific appropriateness. A pluralistic, evidence-based approach, sensitive to environmental and social context, and to different value systems, is essential.
Environmentally sustainable food production requires good practices that can be continued indefinitely into the future without undermining the capacity of the land to produce food or resulting in the continued degradation of the environment. The search for these practices, and incorporating the effects of climate change, is essential in this search for sustainable food security.
5.3.2 Mitigation
Meeting any of the emissions goals of recent UNFCCC meetings will require both reductions in emissions from Annex 1 countries and reductions in emissions growth in non-Annex 1 countries. Mitigation activities should be undertaken where the costs, both financial and in terms of sustainable food security, are lowest and the benefits the highest. This might result in mitigation activities being undertaken in countries with relatively low historical or current emissions. While emissions are currently low in developing countries, they are likely to grow rapidly unless low-emissions development strategies are followed. These are likely to be much less costly to implement as part of general development efforts today than done later and independently. Public policies that support mitigation in agriculture are an essential element of ensuring globally-efficient mitigation activities. It is also important to support the creation of market based mechanisms.
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Efficiency of the agricultural systems could be improved GHG emissions from agriculture can be mitigated by good management practices that in many cases also increase productivity and enhance resilience. Public policies and programs should target these win-win outcomes. Improving crop yields from the land already under cultivation is generally more effective to mitigate GHGs emissions from agriculture than expanding cultivated land area. Emissions associated with ruminant agriculture are likely to grow rapidly unless technologies become available to farmers that allow them to reduce substantially the GHG emissions per unit of output (meat and milk). Policies and programs that increase nitrogen use efficiency have multiple benefits – reducing farm input costs direct and indirect GHG emissions, and off-farm damage to the environment.
5.4 Public-public and public-private partnerships are essential
Both public-public and public-private partnerships are essential to address all elements of the coming challenges to food security from climate change in equitable and efficient ways. This will require greater transparency and new roles for all elements of society, including the private sector and civil society. Information and other exchanges among national governments on best practices and public technologies should be enhanced.
The private sector, including farmers, traders, input suppliers, and seed companies are the actors who undertake adaptation and mitigation activities. Partnerships between the private and public sectors will make it more likely that public policies and programs will be designed appropriately to address climate change challenges.
Transparency in public sector decision-making about adaptation and mitigation policies and programs is crucial. Participation by the private sector gives them a voice on design that fosters efficient use of resources. Participation by civil society allows other groups that might be affected by climate change, either directly or through the actions of others, to be better informed about potential outcomes, and to steer the process towards more equitable outcomes.
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Appendix: Glossary
We consider that this glossary is not needed in this document. However, if the HLPE decides that the document should have a glossary, it shall include only those definitions where there is evidence and international consensus and the terms that are analyzed in the document, avoiding to use innovative definitions that are not agreed.
This draft glossary draws from the glossary in the IPCC AR4 synthesis report and then adds new terms and edits existing terms. Changes are indicated with a yellow highlight. Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix.pdf
A. Adaptation
Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc.
Adaptive capacity The whole of capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective adaptation measures.
Afforestation Planting of new forests on lands that historically have not contained forests (for at least 50 years). For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).
Anthropogenic emissions Emissions of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas precursors, and aerosols associated with human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land-use changes, livestock, fertilisation, etc.
Arid region A land region of low rainfall, where low is widely accepted to be <250 mm precipitation per year.
Atmosphere The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace gases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium and radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the greenhouse gas water vapour, whose amounts are highly variable but typically around 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds and aerosols.
B. Baseline Reference for measurable quantities from which an alternative outcome can be measured, e.g. a non-intervention scenario used as a reference in the analysis of intervention scenarios.
Biodiversity The total diversity of all organisms and ecosystems at various spatial scales (from genes to entire biomes).
Biofuel A fuel produced from organic matter or combustible oils produced by plants. Examples of biofuel include alcohol,
46 black liquor from the paper-manufacturing process, wood, and vegetable oils including from soybean, palm, and coconut.
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Biomass The total mass of living organisms in a given area or volume; recently dead plant material is often included as dead biomass. The quantity of biomass is expressed as a dry weight or as the energy, carbon, or nitrogen content.
Boreal forest Forests of pine, spruce, fir, and larch stretching from the east coast of Canada westward to Alaska and continuing from Siberia westward across the entire extent of Russia to the European Plain.
Bottom-up models Bottom-up models represent reality by aggregating characteristics of specific activities and processes, considering technological, engineering and cost details. See also Top-down models.
C.
Carbon cycle
The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various forms, e.g. as carbon dioxide) through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere and lithosphere.
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
A naturally occurring gas, also a by-product of burning fossil fuels from fossil carbon deposits, such as oil, gas and coal, of burning biomass and of land use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas that affects the Earth’s radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential of 1.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilisation
The enhancement of the growth of plants as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2) concentration. Depending on their mechanism of photosynthesis, certain types of plants are more sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Carbon intensity
The amount of emission of carbon dioxide per unit of Gross Domestic Product.
Carbon sequestration See Uptake.
Civil society
The term civil society refers to the wide array of non-governmental and not-for-profit organizations that have a presence in public life, expressing the interests and values of their members or others, based on ethical, cultural, political, scientific, religious or philanthropic considerations. Examples include federations, associations and groups representing farmers, fishers, forest users, herders, indigenous peoples, women, men and youth, social/people’s movements, labour unions, indigenous peoples’ organizations, charitable organizations, faith-based organizations, professional associations and foundations.
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM is intended to meet two objectives: (1) to assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the convention; and (2) to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments. Certified Emission Reduction Units from CDM projects undertaken in non- Annex I countries that limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, when certified by operational entities designated by Conference of the Parties/Meeting of the Parties, can be accrued to the investor (government or industry) from parties in Annex B. A share of the proceeds from the certified project activities is used to cover administrative
47 expenses as well as to assist developing country parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation.
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Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. In various parts of this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used.
Climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. See also Climate variability; Detection and Attribution.
Climate feedback An interaction mechanism between processes in the climate system is called a climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial one. A positive feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it.
Climate model A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties. The climate system can be represented by models of varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination of components a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented, or the level at which empirical parametrisations are involved. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide a representation of the climate system that is near the most comprehensive end of the spectrum currently available. There is an evolution towards more complex models with interactive chemistry and biology (see WGI Chapter 8). Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal and interannual climate predictions.
Climate prediction A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales. Since the future evolution of the climate system may be highly sensitive to initial conditions, such predictions are usually probabilistic in nature. See also Climate projection, climate scenario.
Climate projection A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.
Climate scenario A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of
48 Draft V0 for E‐Consultation anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require additional information such as about the observed current climate. A climate change scenario is the difference between a climate scenario and the current climate.
Climate sensitivity
In IPCC reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concentration. Due to computational constraints, the equilibrium climate sensitivity in a climate model is usually estimated by running an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is largely determined by atmospheric processes. Efficient models can be run to equilibrium with a dynamic ocean. The transient climate response is the change in the global surface temperature, averaged over a 20-year period, centred at the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, that is, at year 70 in a 1%/yr compound carbon dioxide increase experiment with a global coupled climate model. It is a measure of the strength and rapidity of the surface temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing.
Climate variability
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also Climate change.
CO2 fertilization
See Carbon dioxide fertilization.
Co-benefits
The benefits of policies implemented for various reasons at the same time, acknowledging that most policies designed to address greenhouse gas mitigation have other, often at least equally important, rationales (e.g., related to objectives of development, sustainability, and equity).
Compliance
Compliance is whether and to what extent countries do adhere to the provisions of an accord. Compliance depends on implementing policies ordered, and on whether measures follow up the policies. Compliance is the degree to which the actors whose behaviour is targeted by the agreement, local government units, corporations, organizations, or individuals, conform to the implementing obligations. See also Implementation.
D.
Deforestation
Conversion of forest to non-forest. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).
Demand-side management (DSM)
Policies and programmes for influencing the demand for goods and/or services. In the energy sector, DSM aims at reducing the demand for electricity and energy sources. DSM helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Development path or pathway
An evolution based on an array of technological, economic, social, institutional, cultural, and biophysical characteristics that determine the interactions between natural and human systems, including production and consumption patterns in all countries, over time at a particular scale. Alternative development paths refer to different possible trajectories of development, the continuation of current trends being just one of the many paths.
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Drought
In general terms, drought is a ‘prolonged absence or marked deficiency of precipitation’, a ‘deficiency that results in water shortage for some activity or for some group’, or a ‘period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance’ (Heim, 2002). Drought has been defined in a number of ways. Agricultural drought relates to moisture deficits in the topmost 1 metre or so of soil (the root zone) that affect crops, meteorological drought is mainly a prolonged deficit of precipitation, and hydrologic drought is related to below-normal stream flow, lake and groundwater levels. A megadrought is a long drawn out and pervasive drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more.
E.
Economic (mitigation) potential
See Mitigation potential.
Ecosystem
A system of living organisms interacting with each other and their physical environment. The boundaries of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus, the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth.
El Nińo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The term El Niño was initially used to describe a warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast of Ecuador and Perú, disrupting the local fishery. It has since become identified with a basinwide warming of the tropical Pacific east of the dateline. This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical and subtropical surface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation. This coupled atmosphereocean phenomenon, with preferred time scales of two to about seven years, is collectively known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly difference between Darwin and Tahiti and the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing trade winds weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents such that the sea surface temperatures warm, further weakening the trade winds. This event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world, through global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Niña.
Emission scenario
A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate projections. In IPCC (1992) a set of emission scenarios was presented which were used as a basis for the climate projections in IPCC (1996). These emission scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) new emission scenarios, the so-called SRES scenarios, were published. For the meaning of some terms related to these scenarios, see SRES scenarios.
Emission(s) trading
A market-based approach to achieving environmental objectives. It allows those reducing greenhouse gas emissions below their emission cap to use or trade the excess reductions to offset emissions at another source inside or outside the country. In general, trading can occur at the intra-company, domestic, and international levels. The Second Assessment Report by the IPCC adopted the convention of using permits for domestic trading systems and quotas for international trading systems. Emissions trading under Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol is a tradable quota system based on the assigned amounts calculated from the emission reduction and limitation commitments listed in Annex B of the Protocol.
Emission trajectory
A projected development in time of the emission of a greenhouse gas or group of greenhouse gases, aerosols and greenhouse gas precursors.
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Ecosystem services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating services such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits; and supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. The concept ‘‘ecosystem goods and services’’ is synonymous with ecosystem services.
Erosion The process of removal and transport of soil and rock by weathering, mass wasting, and the action of streams, glaciers, waves, winds, and underground water.
Evapotranspiration The combined process of water evaporation from the Earth’s surface and transpiration from vegetation.
External forcing External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system. Volcanic eruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere and land use change are external forcings.
Extreme weather event An event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile of the observed probability density function. By definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense. Single extreme events cannot be simply and directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as there is always a finite chance the event in question might have occurred naturally. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season).
F.
Food security A situation that exists when people have secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth, development and an active and healthy life. Food insecurity may be caused by the unavailability or uncertainty about future availability of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate distribution, or inadequate use of food at the household level.
Forecast See Climate forecast; Climate projection; Projection.
Forest A vegetation type dominated by trees. Many definitions of the term forest are in use throughout the world, reflecting wide differences in biogeophysical conditions, social structure, and economics. Particular criteria apply under the Kyoto Protocol. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)
Fossil fuels Carbon-based fuels from fossil hydrocarbon deposits, including coal, peat, oil, and natural gas.
G.
Global surface temperature The global surface temperature is an estimate of the global mean surface air temperature. However, for changes over time, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area-weighted global average of the sea surface temperature anomaly and land surface air temperature anomaly.
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Global Warming Potential (GWP) An index, based upon radiative properties of well mixed greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing of a unit mass of a given well mixed greenhouse gas in today’s atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of carbon dioxide. The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing thermal infrared radiation. The Kyoto Protocol is based on GWPs from pulse emissions over a 100 year time frame.
Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself due to the same gases, and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to all sides, including downward to the Earth’s surface. Thus greenhouse gases trap heat within the surface-troposphere system. This is called the greenhouse effect. Thermal infrared radiation in the troposphere is strongly coupled to the temperature of the atmosphere at the altitude at which it is emitted. In the troposphere, the temperature generally decreases with height. Effectively, infrared radiation emitted to space originates from an altitude with a temperature of, on average, –19°C, in balance with the net incoming solar radiation, whereas the Earth’s surface is kept at a much higher temperature of, on average, +14°C. An increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases leads to an increased infrared opacity of the atmosphere, and therefore to an effective radiation into space from a higher altitude at a lower temperature. This causes a radiative forcing that leads to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide
(CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine and bromine containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within a nation.
H.
Hydrological cycle The cycle in which water evaporates from the oceans and the land surface, is carried over the Earth in atmospheric circulation as water vapour, condensates to form clouds, precipitates again as rain or snow, is intercepted by trees and vegetation, provides runoff on the land surface, infiltrates into soils, recharges groundwater, discharges into streams, and ultimately, flows out into the oceans, from which it will eventually evaporate again (AMS, 2000). The various systems involved in the hydrological cycle are usually referred to as hydrological systems.
I.
(Climate change) Impact assessment The practice of identifying and evaluating, in monetary and/or non-monetary terms, the effects of climate change on natural and human systems.
(Climate change) Impacts The effects of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation; Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would oc cur after adaptation; See also aggregate impacts, market impacts, and non-market impacts.
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Implementation Implementation describes the actions taken to meet commitments under a treaty and encompasses legal and effective phases. Legal implementation refers to legislation, regulations, judicial decrees, including other actions such as efforts to administer progress which governments take to translate international accords into domestic law and policy. Effective implementation needs policies and programmes that induce changes in the behaviour and decisions of target groups. Target groups then take effective measures of mitigation and adaptation. See also Compliance.
Indigenous peoples No internationally accepted definition of indigenous peoples exists. Common characteristics often applied under international law, and by United Nations agencies to distinguish indigenous peoples include: residence within or attachment to geographically distinct traditional habitats, ancestral territories, and their natural resources; maintenance of cultural and social identities, and social, economic, cultural and political institutions separate from mainstream or dominant societies and cultures; descent from population groups present in a given area, most frequently before modern states or territories were created and current borders defined; and self-identification as being part of a distinct indigenous cultural group, and the desire to preserve that cultural identity.
Induced technological change See technological change.
Industrial revolution A period of rapid industrial growth with far-reaching social and economic consequences, beginning in Britain during the second half of the eighteenth century and spreading to Europe and later to other countries including the United States. The invention of the steam engine was an important trigger of this development. The industrial revolution marks the beginning of a strong increase in the use of fossil fuels and emission of, in particular, fossil carbon dioxide. In this Report the terms pre-industrial and industrial refer, somewhat arbitrarily, to the periods before and after 1750, respectively.
Infrastructure The basic equipment, utilities, productive enterprises, installations, and services essential for the development, operation, and growth of an organization, city, or nation.
Integrated assessment A method of analysis that combines results and models from the physical, biological, economic and social sciences, and the interactions between these components in a consistent framework to evaluate the status and the consequences of environmental change and the policy responses to it. Models used to carry out such analysis are called Integrated Assessment Models.
Integrated water resources management (IWRM) The prevailing concept for water management which, however, has not been defined unambiguously. IWRM is based on four principles that were formulated by the International Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin, 1992: 1) fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment; 2) water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policymakers at all levels; 3) women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water; 4) water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised as an economic good.
Intensification
J.
Joint Implementation (JI) A market-based implementation mechanism defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol, allowing Annex I countries or companies from these countries to implement projects jointly that limit or reduce emissions or enhance sinks, and to share the Emissions Reduction Units. JI activity is also permitted in Article 4.2(a) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). See also Kyoto Mechanisms; Activities Implemented Jointly.
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Kyoto Mechanisms (also called Flexibility Mechanisms) Economic mechanisms based on market principles that parties to the Kyoto Protocol can use in an attempt to lessen the potential economic impacts of greenhouse gas emission-reduction requirements. They include Joint Implementation (Article 6), Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12), and Emissions Trading (Article 17).
Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC. It contains legally binding commitments, in addition to those included in the UNFCCC. Countries included in Annex B of the Protocol (most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and countries with economies in transition) agreed to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions ( carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxide , hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride) by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.
L.
Land use and Land-use change Land use refers to the total of arrangements, activities and inputs undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of human actions). The term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction, and conservation). Land-use change refers to a change in the use or management of land by humans, which may lead to a change in land cover. Land cover and landuse change may have an impact on the surface albedo, evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus have a radiative forcing and/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally. See also: the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000).
Likelihood The likelihood of an occurrence, an outcome or a result, where this can be estimated probabilistically, is expressed in IPCC reports using a standard terminology defined as follows: Terminology //// Likelihood of the occurrence Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence
Very likely >90% probability
Likely >66% probability
More likely than not >50% probability
About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely <33% probability
Very unlikely <10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely <1% probability
See also Confidence; Uncertainty
M.
Macroeconomic costs These costs are usually measured as changes in Gross Domestic Product or changes in the growth of Gross Domestic Product, or as loss of welfare or of consumption.
Market impacts Impacts that can be quantified in monetary terms, and directly affect Gross Domestic Product – e.g. changes in the
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Measures Measures are technologies, processes, and practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or effects below anticipated future levels. Examples of measures are renewable energy technologies, waste minimisation processes, and public transport commuting practices, etc. See also Policies.
Metagenomics Metagenomics is a technology to explore the DNA directly isolated from an environmental sample. This DNA represents the total DNA of all the organisms (mostly microbial) inhabiting the environment and it is named the metagenome. Typically, several hundred up to several thousand different microbial species can be present in a single metagenome.
It is quite obvious that metagenomics can sufficiently contribute in resolving problems associated with climate change. There are two principal directions for such contribution. The first one is based on the fact that total planetary microbiome (all microorganisms of Earth) is probably the largest part of biosphere (by biomass and activity) responsible for the most sufficient part of global photosynthesis and carbon cycling on Earth exerting a substantial influence on the atmosphere and therefore the climate. It is clear that metagenomics which is basically microbial can help us begin to understand the role of microbes in climate change. This role is likely significantly underestimated and links for example between greenhouse gas emission and global warming can be much fuzzier than previously thought. The second direction is based on such fundamental feature of microbial communities as extremely high adaptability. Every particular microbial community can quickly respond to any changes (abiotic and biotic) in the environment. These changes are immediately reflected in the taxonomic and functional structure of metagenome or metatranscriptome (collection of all RNA transcripts obtained from environmental sample). This feature of microbiome gives a very promising tool for detection any changes in the environment including changes caused by hidden factors. The last can be critically important for research programs for identification of risks and adaptation of agriculture to agro-climatic metamorphosis, ensuring the sustainability of agricultural landscapes and the formation of optimal land use infrastructure, including prevention of degradation and conservation of the soil fertility.
Methane (CH4) Methane is one of the six greenhouse gases to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol and is the major component of natural gas and associated with all hydrocarbon fuels, animal husbandry and agriculture. Coal-bed methane is the gas found in coal seams.
Methane recovery Methane emissions, e.g. from oil or gas wells, coal beds, peat bogs, gas transmission pipelines, landfills, or anaerobic digesters, may be captured and used as a fuel or for some other economic purpose (e.g. chemical feedstock).
Metric A consistent measurement of a characteristic of an object or activity that is otherwise difficult to quantify.
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) A set of time-bound and measurable goals for combating poverty, hunger, disease, illiteracy, discrimination against women and environmental degradation, agreed at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.
Mitigation Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although several social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.
Mitigative capacity This is a country’s ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or to enhance natural sinks, where ability refers to skills, competencies, fitness and proficiencies that a country has attained and depends on technology, institutions, wealth, equity, infrastructure and information. Mitigative capacity is rooted in a country’s sustainable development path.
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Mitigation Potential In the context of climate change mitigation, the mitigation potential is the amount of mitigation that could be – but is not yet – realised over time.
Market potential is the mitigation potential based on private costs and private discount rates, which might be expected to occur under forecast market conditions, including policies and measures currently in place, noting that barriers limit actual uptake. Private costs and discount rates reflect the perspective of private consumers and companies.
Economic potential is the mitigation potential that takes into account social costs and benefits and social discount rates, assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures and barriers are removed. Social costs and discount rates reflect the perspective of society. Social discount rates are lower than those used by private investors.
Studies of market potential can be used to inform policy makers about mitigation potential with existing policies and barriers, while studies of economic potential show what might be achieved if appropriate new and additional policies were put into place to remove barriers and include social costs and benefits. The economic potential is therefore generally greater than the market potential.
Technical potential is the amount by which it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or improve energy efficiency by implementing a technology or practice that has already been demonstrated. No explicit reference to costs is made but adopting ‘practical constraints’ may take implicit economic considerations into account.
Monsoon A monsoon is a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both the surface winds and associated precipitation, caused by differential heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean. Monsoon rains occur mainly over land in summer.
Morbidity Rate of occurrence of disease or other health disorder within a population, taking account of the age-specific morbidity rates. Morbidity indicators include chronic disease incidence/ prevalence, rates of hospitalisation, primary care consultations, disability-days (i.e., days of absence from work), and prevalence of symptoms.
Mortality Rate of occurrence of death within a population; calculation of mortality takes account of age-specific death rates, and can thus yield measures of life expectancy and the extent of premature death.
Multifunctionality
N.
Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change (NWP) The Nairobi work programme (NWP) is undertaken under the auspices of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the UNFCCC. Its objective is to assist all Parties, but in particular developing countries to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.
Net market benefits Climate change, especially moderate climate change, is expected to bring positive and negative impacts to marketbased sectors, but with significant differences across different sectors and regions and depending on both negative market-based benefits and costs summed across all sectors and all regions for a given period is called net market benefits. Net market benefits exclude any non-market impacts.
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Nitrogen use efficiency Nitrous oxide (N2O) One of the six types of greenhouse gases to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol. The main anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide is agriculture (soil and animal manure management), but important contributions also come from sewage treatment, combustion of fossil fuel, and chemical industrial processes. Nitrous oxide is also produced naturally from a wide variety of biological sources in soil and water, particularly microbial action in wet tropical forests.
Non-governmental Organisation (NGO) A non-profit group or association organised outside of institutionalised political structures to realise particular social and/or environmental objectives or serve particular constituencies. Source: http://www.edu.gov.nf.ca/ curriculum/teched/resources/glos-biodiversity.html
Non-market impacts Impacts that affect ecosystems or human welfare, but that are not easily expressed in monetary terms, e.g., an increased risk of premature death, or increases in the number of people at risk of hunger. See also market impacts.
O.
Ocean acidification A decrease in the pH of sea water due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
Ozone (O3) Ozone, the tri-atomic form of oxygen, is a gaseous atmospheric constituent. In the troposphere, ozone is created both naturally and by photochemical reactions involving gases resulting from human activities (smog). Troposphere ozone acts as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, ozone is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiation and molecular oxygen (O2). Stratospheric ozone plays a dominant role in the stratospheric radiative balance. Its concentration is highest in the ozone layer.
P.
Participatory crop breeding Patterns of climate variability Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and longer time scales, predominantly occurs with preferred spatial patterns and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces. Such patterns are often called regimes, modes or teleconnections. Examples are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM; previously called Arctic Oscillation, AO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; previously called the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO). Many of the prominent modes of climate variability are discussed in section 3.6 of the Working Group I Report.
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Among the six greenhouse gases to be abated under the Kyoto Protocol. These are by-products of aluminium smelting and uranium enrichment. They also replace chlorofluorocarbons in manufacturing semiconductors.
Permafrost Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years.
Photosynthesis The process by which green plants, algae and some bacteria take carbon dioxide from the air (or bicarbonate in water) to build carbohydrates. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different responses to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. See Carbon dioxide fertilisation.
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Policies In United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parlance, policies are taken and/or mandated by a government – often in conjunction with business and industry within its own country, or with other countries – to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures. Examples of policies are carbon or other energy taxes, fuel efficiency standards for automobiles, etc. Common and co-ordinated or harmonised policies refer to those adopted jointly by parties. See also Measures.
Portfolio A coherent set of a variety of measures and/or technologies that policy makers can use to achieve a postulated policy target. By widening the scope in measures and technologies more diverse events and uncertainties can be addressed.
Projection A potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasise that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. See also Climate projection; Climate prediction.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) The purchasing power of a currency is expressed using a basket of goods and services that can be bought with a given amount in the home country. International comparison of e.g. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of countries can be based on the purchasing power of currencies rather than on current exchange rates. PPP estimates tend to lower per capita GDPs in industrialised countries and raise per capita GDPs in developing countries.
R.
Radiative forcing Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, irradiance (expressed in Watts per square metre, W/m2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is further defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value.
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is an effort to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. “REDD+” goes beyond deforestation and forest degradation, and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
Reforestation Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests but that have been converted to some other use. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)
Resilience The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.
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(Five) Rome Principles for Sustainable Global Food Security The 2009 declaration of the world summit on food security identified five principles to meet the strategic objectives of the summit.
Principle 1: Invest in country-owned plans, aimed at channelling resources to well designed and results-based programmes and partnerships.
Principle 2: Foster strategic coordination at national, regional and global level to improve governance, promote better allocation of resources, avoid duplication of efforts and identify response-gaps.
Principle 3: Strive for a comprehensive twin-track approach to food security that consists of: 1) direct action to immediately tackle hunger for the most vulnerable and 2) medium- and long-term sustainable agricultural, food security, nutrition and rural development programmes to eliminate the root causes of hunger and poverty, including through the progressive realization of the right to adequate food.
Principle 4: Ensure a strong role for the multilateral system by sustained improvements in efficiency, responsiveness, coordination and effectiveness of multilateral institutions.
Principle 5: Ensure sustained and substantial commitment by all partners to investment in agriculture and food security and nutrition, with provision of necessary resources in a timely and reliable fashion, aimed at multi-year plans and programmes.
S.
Salinisation The accumulation of salts in soils.
Saltwater intrusion Displacement of fresh surface water or groundwater by the advance of saltwater due to its greater density. This usually occurs in coastal and estuarine areas due to reducing land-based influence (e.g., either from reduced runoff and associated groundwater recharge, or from excessive water withdrawals from aquifers) or increasing marine influence (e.g., relative sea-level rise).
Scenario A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. See also SRES scenarios; Climate scenario; Emission scenarios.
Sea level change/sea level rise Sea level can change, both globally and locally, due to (i) changes in the shape of the ocean basins, (ii) changes in the total mass of water and (iii) changes in water density. Factors leading to sea level rise under global warming include both increases in the total mass of water from the melting of land-based snow and ice, and changes in water density from an increase in ocean water temperatures and salinity changes. Relative sea level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level subsidence. See also Mean Sea Level, Thermal expansion.
Sensitivity Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or climate change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise). This concept of sensitivity is not to be confused with climate sensitivity, which is defined separately above.
Sink Any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the atmosphere.
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Soil temperature The temperature of the ground near the surface (often within the first 10cm).
Source Source mostly refers to any process, activity or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the atmosphere. Source can also refer to e.g. an energy source.
Spatial and temporal scales Climate may vary on a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatial scales may range from local (less than 100,000 km2), through regional (100,000 to 10 million km2) to continental (10 to 100 million km2). Temporal scales may range from seasonal to geological (up to hundreds of millions of years).
SRES scenarios SRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by Nakicenovic and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as a basis for some of the climate projections used in the Fourth Assessment Report. The following terms are relevant for a better understanding of the structure and use of the set of SRES scenarios: Scenario Family: Scenarios that have a similar demographic, societal, economic and technical-change storyline. Four scenario families comprise the SRES scenario set: A1, A2, B1 and B2. Illustrative Scenario: A scenario that is illustrative for each of the six scenario groups reflected in the Summary for Policymakers of Nakicenovic et al. (2000). They include four revised ‘scenario markers’ for the scenario groups A1B, A2, B1, B2, and two additional scenarios for the A1FI and A1T groups. All scenario groups are equally sound. Marker Scenario: A scenario that was originally posted in draft form on the SRES website to represent a given scenario family. The choice of markers was based on which of the initial quantifications best reflected the storyline, and the features of specific models. Markers are no more likely than other scenarios, but are considered by the SRES writing team as illustrative of a particular storyline. They are included in revised form in Nakicenovic and Swart (2000). These scenarios received the closest scrutiny of the entire writing team and via the SRES open process. Scenarios were also selected to illustrate the other two scenario groups. Storyline: A narrative description of a scenario (or family of scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics, relationships between key driving forces and the dynamics of their evolution.
Structural change Changes, for example, in the relative share of Gross Domestic Product produced by the industrial, agricultural, or services sectors of an economy; or more generally, systems transformations whereby some components are either replaced or potentially substituted by other ones.
Stabilisation Keeping constant the atmospheric concentrations of one or more greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide) or of a CO2-equivalent basket of greenhouse gases. Stabilisation analyses or scenarios address the stabilisation of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Sulphurhexafluoride (SF6) One of the six greenhouse gases to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol. It is largely used in heavy industry to insulate high-voltage equipment and to assist in the manufacturing of cable-cooling systems and semi-conductors.
Surface temperature See Global surface temperature.
Sustainable Development (SD) The concept of sustainable development was introduced in the World Conservation Strategy (IUCN 1980) and had its roots in the concept of a sustainable society and in the management of renewable resources. Adopted by the WCED
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Sustainable food security A situation that exists when the processes that lead to food security today do not reduce food security in the future. See also Rome Principles for Sustainable Global Food Security
Sustainable intensification Sustainable intensification occurs when agricultural productivity increases in ways that can be continued indefinitely into the future when all consequences of different practices are taken into account, including food production’s direct and indirect roles in greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification is a description of a food production outcome and does not imply any particular means of attaining the goal.
T.
Tax A carbon tax is a levy on the carbon content of fossil fuels. Because virtually all of the carbon in fossil fuels is ultimately emitted as carbon dioxide, a carbon tax is equivalent to an emission tax on each unit of CO2equivalent emissions. An energy tax a levy on the energy content of fuels reduces demand for energy and so reduces carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use. An eco-tax is designed to influence human behaviour (specifically economic behaviour) to follow an ecologically benign path. An international carbon/emission/energy tax is a tax imposed on specified sources in participating countries by an international agreement. A harmonised tax commits participating countries to impose a tax at a common rate on the same sources. A tax credit is a reduction of tax in order to stimulate purchasing of or investment in a certain product, like GHG emission reducing technologies. A carbon charge is the same as a carbon tax.
Technological change Mostly considered as technological improvement, i.e. more or better goods and services can be provided from a given amount of resources (production factors). Economic models distinguish autonomous (exogenous), endogenous and induced technological change. Autonomous (exogenous) technological change is imposed from outside the model, usually in the form of a time trend affecting energy demand or world output growth. Endogenous technological change is the outcome of economic activity within the model, i.e. the choice of technologies is included within the model and affects energy demand and/or economic growth. Induced technological change implies endogenous technological change but adds further changes induced by policies and measures, such as carbon taxes triggering R&D efforts.
Technology transfer The exchange of knowledge, hardware and associated software, money and goods among stakeholders that leads to the spreading of technology for adaptation or mitigation. The term encompasses both diffusion of technologies and technological cooperation across and within countries.
Thermal expansion In connection with sea-level rise, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level. See Sea level change.
Thermal infrared radiation Radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere and the clouds. It is also known as terrestrial or longwave radiation, and is to be distinguished from the near-infrared radiation that is part of the solar spectrum. Infrared radiation, in general, has a distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) longer than the wavelength of the red colour in the visible part of the spectrum. The spectrum of thermal infrared radiation is practically distinct from that of
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shortwave or solar radiation because of the difference in temperature between the Sun and the Earth-atmosphere system.
Top-down models Top-down model apply macroeconomic theory, econometric and optimization techniques to aggregate economic variables. Using historical data on consumption, prices, incomes, and factor costs, top-down models assess final demand for goods and services, and supply from main sectors, like the energy sector, transportation, agriculture, and industry. Some top-down models incorporate technology data, narrowing the gap to bottom-up models.
Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) The amount of solar radiation received outside the Earth’s atmosphere on a surface normal to the incident radiation, and at the Earth’s mean distance from the sun. Reliable measurements of solar radiation can only be made from space and the precise record extends back only to 1978. The generally accepted value is 1,368 Watts per square meter (W m-2) with an accuracy of about 0.2%. Variations of a few tenths of a percent are common, usually associated with the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. The solar cycle variation of TSI is on the order of 0.1%. Source: AMS, 2000.
Tradable permit A tradable permit is an economic policy instrument under which rights to discharge pollution – in this case an amount of greenhouse gas emissions – can be exchanged through either a free or a controlled permit-market. An emission permit is a non-transferable or tradable entitlement allocated by a government to a legal entity (company or other emitter) to emit a specified amount of a substance.
U.
Uncertainty An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the future state of the climate system) is unknown. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgement of a team of experts (see Moss and Schneider, 2000; Manning et al., 2004). See also Likelihood; Confidence.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the “stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I (all OECD member countries in the year 1990 and countries with economies in transition) aim to return greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered in force in March 1994. See Kyoto Protocol.
Urbanisation The conversion of land from a natural state or managed natural state (such as agriculture) to cities; a process driven by net rural-to-urban migration through which an increasing percentage of the population in any nation or region come to live in settlements that are defined as urban centres.
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Voluntary action Informal programmes, self-commitments and declarations, where the parties (individual companies or groups of companies) entering into the action set their own targets and often do their own monitoring and reporting.
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Voluntary agreement An agreement between a government authority and one or more private parties to achieve environmental objectives or to improve environmental performance beyond compliance to regulated obligations. Not all voluntary agreements are truly voluntary; some include rewards and/or penalties associated with joining or achieving commitments.
Vulnerability Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
Vulnerability, human, to climate change Vulnerability is the degree to which an individual is or groups of individuals are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
W. Water stress A country is water stressed if the available freshwater supply relative to water withdrawals acts as an important constraint on development. In global-scale assessments, basins with water stress are often defined as having a per capita water availability below 1,000 m3/yr (based on long-term average runoff). Withdrawals exceeding 20% of renewable water supply have also been used as an indicator of water stress. A crop is water stressed if soil available water, and thus actual evapotranspiration, is less than potential evapotranspiration demands.
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